What's Next? Compophones? Teleputers? Compuvision?

10/01/2000

While the world is madly scrambling to build information superhighways, we are also seeing the beginnings of the gadgets that will provide the on and off ramps. Technology offers a virtually infinite set of options, and finding the right mix of links, bandwidth, input/output devices and displays is difficult enough. On top of that, the solutions must be economic, compatible, secure, and must provide useful, easily accessible services and applications.

We already see devices designed to use existing phone lines, or enhanced links using faster digital subscriber line (DSL) technology. Future personal computers might have built-in telephones with the ability to use voice-over-internet as a low-cost alternative to POTS (plain old telephone service). Would these be "compuphones"? Telephone-like gadgets may have small keyboards or keyboard displays on touch-screen displays — already available on personal digital assistants (PDAs) — making it easier to shop or bank by phone, or even exchange digitized photos with friends and relatives. These might be called "teleputers."

We have long been awaiting the convergence of computing, communications, and entertainment, and it could come through the cable TV system. Scores of companies either make or are working on set-top boxes to give internet access through broadband cable. It would not be hard to add computer capability and a keyboard so that computer work, internet access, and entertainment could all be accessed through the same console. Would that be called "compuvision"? The spread of digital television capability and two-way links will help make this a more viable option.

Wireless is growing even faster than either of these alternatives, but the boom is rapidly eating up all the available spectrum. Former head of the FCC Reed Hundt, with help from Senator John McCain, fought a losing battle to keep Congress from giving away large chunks of bandwidth to the TV networks in exchange for their promise (not kept) to promote over-the-air digital TV. (Who says those campaign donations don't mean anything?) Hundt wanted the bandwidth to be auctioned off for wireless services, and recent experience in Europe suggests that the US government gave away billions and at the same time stymied the growth of an industry that could be mushrooming. Even the short-range (10 meters) Bluetooth technology to link gadgets with PCs, printers, and each other using rapid frequency hopping spread spectrum technology is stuck right in with two other wireless nets, HomeRF and 802.11b, which might slow transmission due to contention problems.

In reassuring the investment community about the stamina of the fab buildup now in progress, James Morgan, chairman of Applied Materials, cited a Japanese board member who pointed out that users now want color displays in their portable devices, not black-and-white, and that will take three times as many chips. This will further increase the semiconductor content, which already is over 50% for many devices compared to about 20% for PCs. Progress is so rapid that many users are frequently upgrading their portable equipment, and new-generation devices with color displays and other advanced features — plus a host of new, convenient over-the-air services — could accelerate the trend.

One thing is certain: a wide range of devices running on all of these media will proliferate in the future, and we shall find an amazing number of useful things to do with them. Which devices win out, and what applications they provide, may spring endless surprises. It is not even clear what we will call all of these gadgets, but it is certain they are coming, and that there will be lots of them all over the world. They should keep a lot of us very busy for at least the next couple of years, and maybe more, building up the capacity needed to supply the chips for them.

Progress is so rapid that many users are frequently upgrading their portable equipment, and new-generation devices with color displays and other advanced features — plus a host of new, convenient over-the-air services — could accelerate the trend.

Robert Haavind
Editor in Chief