Photomask market prospect brighter; industry consolidation continues
02/01/2000
Robert N. Castellano, The Information Network, New Tripoli, Pennsylvania
The worldwide market for photomasks is poised for recovery in 2000, according to a recent market research report.* In addition, the 15-year trend toward industry consolidation continues, due to the absorption of in-house (captive) mask shops by independent (merchant) mask houses and mergers between independent suppliers.
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The total photomask market, including both captive mask shops and such merchant suppliers as Photronics, DuPont Photomasks Inc. (DPI), Align-Rite, Toppan, and DNP, will reach $2.3 billion in 2000, up 8.2% from 1999 levels, which dropped 3.1% from 1998 revenues of $2.1 billion (Tables 1 and 2). Worldwide revenues will continue to grow to $3.6 billion in 2003, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3%. This growth rate, however, takes into account the decrease in 1999, which followed an increase of 7.7% in 1998 from sales of $1.9 billion in 1997.
DPI was the worldwide market leader in 1999 with a 21.5% share of the $1.32 billion merchant market, slightly ahead of Photronics with a 20.0% share. Japanese vendors DNP and Toppan followed with market shares of 16.9% and 15.4%, respectively (Table 3).
In 1999, the North American merchant mask market was $348 million, down 10.3% from $388 million in 1998. The total market reached $467 million in 1999, down 17.2% from 1998 levels. Photronics was the North American market leader with a 47.4% market share, followed by DuPont Photomasks Inc. with a 36.8% share.
Shrinking in-house maskmaking facilities
Merchant mask houses buy captive mask shops because of several key factors, the most important being the significant capital investment, operating, and maintenance costs necessary to run an in-house facility. Etec, for example, the largest supplier of maskmaking exposure tools, sells its MEBES electron beam systems and its ALTA laser beam systems at prices ranging from $6.0 million to $13.0 million each, and accessories and upgrades at prices ranging from $1.0 million to $9.0 million each.
In general, a 0.18µm binary mask for critical layers costs between $35,000 and $40,000 compared to $5000-$6000 for 0.35µm design rules, and masks for noncritical layers cost between $18,000 and $20,000. OPC and phase shift add substantially to these prices. According to the market report, it is estimated that a 0.1µm mask for critical layers will cost $100,000 and a complete mask set for a 25-layer IC $2.5 million.
The increasing complexity and high costs of making semiconductor devices and masks, therefore, are forcing semiconductor manufacturers to focus on the core components of their businesses. In the US, Allegro, Burr-Brown, Conexant, IBM, Intel, Intersil, MicroChip, MicroLinear, NEC, Nortel, Samsung, Sipex, Sony, White Oak, and VTC are the only companies with captive mask shops. Rather than invest in new capital equipment, many of these have turned to merchant manufacturers to produce more technically advanced photomasks. Recent divestitures of in-house mask shops include Hitachi and Toshiba to DNP, Sony to Toppan, Hewlett-Packard and Hyundai to DPI, Motorola to Photronics, and Harris to Align-Rite.
Shrinking merchant mask suppliers
The number of independent photomask manufacturers with annual photomask sales in excess of $5.0 million in the US and Europe has decreased from ten in 1987 to three in 1999 Photronics/Align-Rite and DPI in the US and Compugraphics in Europe. Last year alone, Compugraphics acquired the US company Daimon Images and Photronics announced a merger with Align-Rite.
Several factors have been responsible for the consolidation of merchant maskmakers. In recent years, The NTRS Technology Roadmap has tripled R&D/capital requirements for mask suppliers. In the past, competition and relatively flat demand led to pressure to reduce prices, which led to a decrease in the number of independent manufacturers. Since late 1993, however, independent companies have been in increased demand. Although there has been a recent decline in mask market prices caused by the semiconductor industry recession, particularly for mature products, price erosion ceased in mid-1999.
While prices have declined for mature products, merchant vendors supply semiconductor manufacturers with leading-edge masks, i.e., 0.18µm binary masks or those with OPC and phase shifting. In fact, they are emphasizing smaller features: Photronics and DPI exhibited a 30% and 19% increase, respectively, in photomask sales with features in the 0.25µm and lower range. Recent major investments in R&D and mask production by IBM, Intel, Infineon, and Conexant, however, will limit sales growth.
Mergers or acquisitions in the maskmaking industry have several advantages:
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- They enhance industry positions. The merger between Photronics and Align-Rite propelled the new company to worldwide market leadership. Photronics' 20.0% share and Align-Rite's 4.6% share of the $1.32 billion 1999 merchant photomask market, when combined, were greater than DPI's 21.5% share.
- There is usually very little customer account overlap between companies.
- Such deals provide companies with a global reach. The Photronics/Align-Rite merger gave Photronics mask facilities in Burbank, CA, Melbourne, FL, and much needed foreign facilities in Heilbronn, Germany, and South Wales, UK.
- They eliminate duplicate expenditures and should bring better products to market more quickly.
- They build critical mass. Specializing in photomasks gives a company the ability to make required investments in capital/R&D.
- They create greater efficiencies in photomask manufacturing and product uniformity standards, as cycle times improve from combination synergy.
The consolidation of merchant mask houses has produced large organizations offering advanced capabilities and highly reliable products.
Using merchant vendors is a way semiconductor manufacturers can eliminate the huge in-house overhead needed to maintain a state-of-the-art mask facility at a semiconductor fab. The technology for making masks for <0.18µm is still uncertain, with problems like mask error enhancement factor still to be solved.
Thus, the trend toward amalgamation may prove necessary to provide a supply of technologically advanced photomasks that would otherwise have been impossible to produce. Even so, a $2.2 billion industry may not have the R&D funds needed to meet future needs without more help from the chipmakers, who cannot progress without this enabling technology.
Robert N. Castellano is president of The Information Network, a consulting and market research company addressing the semiconductor, computer, and telecommunications industries.
*For further information about the report, Maskmaking, Inspection, and Repair: Market Analysis and Strategic Issues, contact the author at 8740 Lyon Valley Road, New Tripoli, PA 18066; ph 610/285-4548, fax 610/285-4547, e-mail [email protected], www.theinformationnet.com.