News
08/01/2001
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Asuka project to select tools this year
It looks like suppliers already working with Selete will have the advantage in getting their tools into a fab now being planned for Japan's new research consortium's fab. The Asuka Project researchers plan to start selecting tools this year to install in the government's new 300mm research fab in Tsukuba in the first half of 2002.
The line will be used to develop EUV, EPL, and mask technology, a transistor module with a gate stack using a new high-k material, and an interconnect module using copper and a new low-k dielectric. Researchers want to collaborate with materials and equipment suppliers on developing process technology and improving tools for the 100nm and 70nm nodes.
Norio Suzuki of the Asuka Research Line Group told attendees at Selete's annual progress update meeting in Tokyo that tools to be considered for the Asuka fab must:
- comply with Global Joint Guidance and related Semi standards,
- be evaluated by Selete in advance,
- have FOUP/Load port interoperability,
- meet Selete on-line specifications, and
- meet Selete safety specifications.
The Asuka project is sponsored by JEITA and run by Selete. Companies participating in the consortium are Fujitsu, Hitachi,
Matsushia, Mitsubishi, NEC, Oki, Rohm, Samsung, Sanyo, Seiko-Epson, Sharp, Sony and Toshiba, though organizers say more may still join.
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The Asuka Project development extends well into 2005.
In other news from Selete's annual presentation, its Manufacturing Technology Research Division this year plans to step up development of equipment and materials for the 130nm node, and develop a production control CIM package that will then be transferred to the Asuka project. Tetsuro Hanawa of the photolithography and etching group reported that scanners and etch tools are making good progress towards performance targets, but problems remain with the etch resistance of polyacrylate ArF resists. Selete has so far started evaluation of five of the eight planned scanners and lithography track tools, and two of the eight planned etching tools.
Over on the Advanced Technology Research Division side, Nobuyuki Yoshioka reported that the 130mn mask program has its dry etching technology down to the target critical dimension conformity of 9nm, its DUV inspection technology sensitive down to the target 100nm, and its FIB defect repair system working with accuracy of 25nm. The 130nm program wrapped up in March, and researchers are now starting work on 100-70nm masks.
Ebara steps up technology development, plans US push
Abrasive-free slurries. Fixed abrasives. Web-type platforms. Upside down tools. Now there is yet another new approach to the nagging problem of high cost of ownership and less than perfect performance of CMP tools. Japan's big CMP supplier, Ebara Corp., expects to introduce a new bonded-abrasive pad that can be retrofitted onto a standard rotary tool later this year. Ebara has held onto its number two position in the CMP market mainly on its equipment's workhorse reliability.
Laredo Technologies estimates Ebara has about 20% of the CMP tool market. But now the company aims to focus on developing the technology needed to really be a key player in the US market as well. Key innovations include new bonded abrasive pads for old rotary tools and a multiprocess in-situ monitoring system that's not just optical. The company is also diversifying into wet process tools for copper deposition, and bump plating equipment for wafer-scale packaging.
A polishing pad made with bonded abrasive running all the way through the pad, so it doesn't wear down quickly with use, is due out within the year. Unlike competing fixed abrasives that only work well with new web-type tool platforms, this pad can be retrofitted onto existing rotary tools. "The material is consistent all the way through the pad, so the life of the pad is tens of thousands of wafers," says David Watts, Ebara's director of technology in Sacramento, CA. The company targets a beta site by Q3 and production by Q4, entering through the shallow-trench isolation market. Though it's is developing the material, Ebara will outsource production. "We don't want to become a supplier of consumables," notes Watts.
The company is also touting its in-situ multiprocess endpoint monitoring system, which measures copper thickness during polishing optically — and also nonoptically — for superior process control. "That's about all I can say," says Watts, side-stepping specifying even which nonoptical process Ebara uses.
Ebara is rated first in its sector in customer satisfaction in VLSI Research's most recent survey. But Applied Materials was ranked first in technology, and dominates some 55% of the market. Speedfam-IPEC gained on the others last year to reach about 15%.
"It's hard to penetrate the technology-based US market on reliability," says Watts, "So we've been adding new technology." A couple of years ago IBM was the company's main US customer, but now Ebara has reportedly penetrated the R&D labs of three of the four main customers it had to go after, and says its market share is running about neck-and-neck with Applied in Asia. It says it has about 10 300mm tools out at customer sites, and a number being used in pilot line production for copper.
Ebara's total sales of semiconductor-related equipment, including vacuum pumps, were up 27% for the fiscal year that ended March 2001, reaching $782 million (¥96.9 billion). Operating margins for the business remained a modest 8% of sales, but that was double the margin of the year before.
For the current fiscal year, the company says its new plant in Kumamoto — coming on line in June — will double its capacity to make semiconductor equipment and reduce its costs. Ebara also expects its new products, like the wafer bumping tool for packaging, will help increase sales. Still, Ebara projects its semiconductor equipment sales will grow only 4% through March 2002, while operating margins for the sector will remain at about 8%. The company has projected its sales of semiconductor-related equipment will double by 2004, with 40% of those sales from CMP equipment.
Though the semiconductor equipment business may be slowing, it still looks good compared to most of the rest of the Ebara's markets. The $4.5 billion industrial equipment company, which makes equipment for everything from sewage treatment to nuclear power generation, managed a 6% increase in sales for the fiscal year, but net income plunged 70%, to 0.5% of sales. And the semiconductor business accounted for nearly 60% of all operating income, though it was only some 17% of total sales.
China: The sleeping dragon stirs
For years, the potentially huge semiconductor market in China has seemed to be just around the corner. Now more than ever before, the sleeping dragon seems about to awaken.
China is set to become one of the world's largest semiconductor markets by 2010, with at least 10 wafer fabs operating or on-deck across the country. Gartner Dataquest has forecast that China's IC industry is expected to grow a healthy 6.3% in 2001, and revenues are forecast to reach $13.6 billion this year from $12.8 billion in 2000. That's particularly revealing when compared to the rest of the world, where Gartner is predicting an overall 17% decline in semiconductor revenue for 2001, a dramatic drop from the 32.4% growth registered last year.
"We've seen a lot of excitement over the years about the market, with the sense of 'It's right around the corner,'" said Paul Davis, senior VP of international operations at Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (Semi). "Now it finally seems real."
An NEC-operated fab in Shanghai has recently produced a 0.35-micron CPU, and Motorola is fitting out its fab near Beijing. After 15 years of trying, Applied Materials says its sales in China reached $100 million for the first time last year — about 1% of its total. It expects sales to China to account for 5% of total revenues by 2005.
While some very rosy views of China's future exist, the actual speed of progress will largely depend on these first efforts.
"Right now, China is different. It's a welcome relief from the rest of the global market," Davis said. "[But] it's conceivable that if the downturn runs much longer, plans will be frustrated for outside investment."
Last year, there were about 20 billion IC units used in China, with an average selling price (ASP) of $0.44, compared to a worldwide average of $2, according to Bill McClean, president of IC Insights Inc. That low price is indicative of lower-end devices being used there, but the ASP will continue to increase as the market matures and demand increases for PCs, ASICs, etc. The average annual growth rate in China over the last decade or so has been between 25-30%.
"It starts from a small base; it doesn't happen overnight," McClean said. "The IC market will continue to expand. It's an evolution, and it's coming."
As to questions about China becoming a net-exporter of chips, rather than a net-importer, McClean predicted it would be "quite a while yet."
Added Davis, "There's a big internal growing demand that's only very lightly satisfied [by Chinese firms]. My sense is they produce less than 15% of their own need. "They've got a huge urban class which is ready for all sorts of products with electronic content, from cell phones to PCs. The notion that they will become a net exporter seems a bit down the road to me."
China is starting to get the size and momentum needed to make it more attractive for companies to invest and establish a presence there. McClean noted that clients ask him about opportunities in China, and he tells them there's no rush to get into the country within the next six months. "When you look five to 10 years [down the road], you'd better have something planned. It's going to be a significant part of the market."
Incidents like the recent downed US plane and ensuing diplomatic tensions between China and the US should serve as a reminder that there are still issues with investing.
A growing economy, with trade and development, however, tends to spur other advances, including social ones. Semi's philosophy has always been to support free and open trade, Davis said. That has included attempts to ease US government export controls that attempt to keep China a generation behind in chipmaking.