Japans poly production skyrocketed in 1997
06/01/1998
Japan`s poly production skyrocketed in 1997
Japanese suppliers of polycrystalline silicon had a boom year in 1997, boosting their production by a whopping 30.9% over 1996 levels, and shattering production forecasts made at the beginning of last year, according to a report from the Japan Society of New Metals (JSNM). Single-crystal silicon sales were softer than expected, said the report, and sales in the first half of 1998 are expected to be flat, due to the impact of production slowdowns at major Japanese chip houses.
For the second half of 1998, JSNM members see increasing wafer demand due to rising demand for 64-Mbit synchronous DRAMs (SDRAMs), driven by higher-speed system buses on computers built with new-generation microprocessors running at up to 1 GHz, plus demand for new PCs due to the introduction of Windows 98.
Production of polycrystalline silicon in Japan for 1997 was 5378 tons, 21.7% higher than the prediction made at the beginning of 1997 (see table). This rapid acceleration was due to expansion of polysilicon production facilities by every supplier. Shortages of the critical material had been anticipated in the past, but they pose no problem presently or in the foreseeable future; producers had a two-month stockpile at the end of 1997, after draining their reserves to near zero during the boom of 1995-96. JSNM estimates this year`s poly production at 5500 tons, up 10% from 1997.
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Single crystal silicon production in Japan for last year was 4248 tons, up 5.4% over the previous year, but down from JSNM`s prediction at the beginning of the year. This year`s production will be 4600 tons, up 2.2% from the previous year. Sales of single crystal silicon for the last year were 4285 tons, up 4.5% from the previous year, but down from the prediction at the beginning of 1997 which consisted of domestic sales (in Japan) and exports. Domestic sales were 2723 tons, up 1.35%, and exports were 1562 tons, up 10.8%. This represented $1154 million, up 13.8%. These figures were smaller than the JSNM prediction made at the beginning of 1997. In 1998, no domestic consumption increase is expected, but the association believes exports will increase by 10% in US dollar terms this year.
Epitaxial wafers accounted for 19% of world wafer sales, and 13.5% of Japan`s, according the JSNM statistics. This ratio is expected to continue rising in 1998; as recently as 1996, Japanese epi sales were just 6% of the total.