Japans 300-mm Plans evolve

04/01/1998

Japan`s 300-mm plans evolve

The advent of 300-mm wafers in Japan hit hard. Toshiba announced that it will postpone construction of its 150 billion yen fab in Oita, Kyushu, until 2000. NEC is still planning a 300-mm wafer pilot production line in Sagamihara, Kanagawa Prefecture, though sources within the chip giant suggested that high 300-mm equipment costs are dampening the firm`s enthusiasm for the larger substrates. Fujitsu has reportedly also delayed by a year or more the advent of its 300-mm line, and (according to the Asahi Shimbun newspaper) is considering a reduction in semiconductor plant and equipment investment by 40% in the coming fiscal year.

Many Japanese chipmakers and equipment suppliers do not see demand for 300-mm equipment rising until after FY99, according to a recent equipment sales survey by the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ), and the finding correlates with chipmakers` plans to continue aggressive efforts to shrink device features as a short-term alternative to early 300-mm adoption.

The SEAJ said these firms also see an end to the region`s DRAM recession on the horizon, perhaps as early as FY98, which begins this month.

It should come as no surprise, then, that the SEAJ survey forecasts equipment purchases by Japanese chipmakers dipping slightly in the current fiscal year and increasing in FY98. This fiscal year, equipment sales within Japan will drop 1.7% and, when imports are included, the figure falls 1.9% from FY96, to 750.8 billion yen ($5.65 billion), the SEAJ said.

This is the first time in five years the yen-based Japanese market sales figure has decreased, said the SEAJ, and the dip is indicative of the moves being made by many of Japan`s leading chipmakers to make significant cuts to their equipment and fab spending plans. For example, in addition to the postponement of its 300-mm fab, Toshiba is freezing plans for a 130 billion yen ($979 million) new fab at its subsidiary Iwate Toshiba Electronics.

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But the trade association is also forecasting an average 10% annual growth in Japan`s chip equipment sector through FY00, and overall FY97 should be a successful year for Japan`s chipmakers (see table). Sales of Japan-made semiconductor equipment are seen reaching a record 1.26 trillion yen ($9.49 billion) in FY97 (ending in March, 1998), up 5.4% from FY96, with much of that growth a result of a 12.4% rise year-over-year in exports, particularly to the US and Taiwan.

The SEAJ forecasts that sales will increase 7.8% in FY98 and 12.2% in FY99. After 1999, the SEAJ said domestic demand for 300-mm equipment will contribute to the forecast sales increases, and by 2000 sees tool sales in the Japan market totaling 1.01 trillion yen. Including both exports and domestic sales, Japan`s equipment sales are expected to rise 7.8% to 1.36 trillion yen ($10.2 billion) in FY98 and increase to 1.74 trillion yen ($13.1 billion) by FY00, according to SEAJ figures.

-WaferNews