SEMI West show report
09/01/1999
A special report by the editors of Solid State Technology, Microlithography World, and WaferNews
Improved conditions brought tempered optimism to show
Semicon West '99 opened in San Francisco under sunny skies - appropriate conditions for a show marked by tempered optimism. While the aisles were not as crowded as some past shows, they were clearly busier than last year's edition, and the vast majority of exhibiting companies were experiencing improving business conditions. Show sponsor Semi said there were about 22,000 attendees, exclusive of exhibiting personnel, despite registrations dipping slightly to 68,000 from 1998's 74,000.
While most of the front-end equipment vendors at the show were couching their market assessments in terms of favorable conditions and strong customer interest, big back-end equipment suppliers were in the more advantageous position of having received purchase orders in substantial numbers. With no huge surge in orders, front-end exhibitors were not yet willing to declare the beginning of a boom period.
Copper interconnect technology was much in evidence, with deposition, CMP, packaging/assembly, and even wafer reclaim companies all showing capabilities designed to ease the adoption of the aluminum alternative. Work on 300mm wafers was not as prominent as in the past couple of years, although virtually all equipment makers have programs in place for the expected arrival of the larger substrates, which are now seen coming online around the 0.13µm generation.
A hot topic of discussion was the decision by the committee developing the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors to use a three-year cycle for process generations after 0.13µm, rather than a more aggressive two-year cycle that had been proposed. Attendees were also speaking of the foundry market in Taiwan and elsewhere in Southeast Asia, which is shaping up as the hottest area for equipment buys in 1999.
A solid, continued recovery ...
Show sponsor SEMI said the number of exhibitors was up 11% to 1940, although the number of booths declined 3% to 4386. SEMI also released its latest consensus forecast of 85 member firms, which showed an expectation of 9% equipment market growth this year (to $23.8 billion), followed by 18% next year, and 22% in 2001. "This is among the most bullish [outlooks] so far, and reflects solid, continued recovery," said or ganization president Stan Myers.
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Stan Myers, SEMI president, on SEMI West's possible move to Las Vegas: "The exhibition is not leaving San Francisco or San Jose in a big hurry," but "pretty soon, we have to fish or cut bait."
Myers also said he would be meeting with the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan and SEMI/Sematech to discuss possible development of a technology roadmap for equipment producers to supplement the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors. "We've got to find the disconnects and work on them as an industry," he said. "[Sematech CEO] Mark Melliar-Smith and I are committed to finding more venues to work together."
At a show press conference, Myers also addressed head-on the issue of a possible move of Semicon West to Las Vegas, saying, "The exhibition is not leaving San Francisco or San Jose in a big hurry," but adding that "pretty soon, we have to fish or cut bait." A decision was to be announced by the end of August, but Myers noted that "a decision to make no decision is also a possibility." Sources had wildly different opinions on the outcome, with some saying a move is a done deal while others say there is no chance of a shift to Vegas.
...Punctuated by sporadic down quarters
The current gradual upturn in both semiconductor and process tool markets will likely be marked by some sporadic down quarters, predicted James W. Bagley, Chairman and CEO of Lam Research. His reasoning is that the major driver for the coming upturn will not be the PC, as in the past, but rather the communications infrastructure and a wide range of information-rich net-enabled appliances (including TV set-top boxes and PCs primarily for net access).
"This is a fundamental change from the last five years," Bagley said. Although the overall trend will be very good for semiconductors, there may be periods of disruption, he suggested, including a down quarter here and there. Transitions like this happen in fits and starts while new potentials are explored, often by entrepreneurs, opening new exciting and rewarding growth areas in the future. He said that to be positioned for this transitional phase in the industry, Lam is in the process of changing the way it operates, to focus on emerging customer needs and faster solutions.
Yoshio Nishi, senior VP and director of R & D at Texas Instruments, said his firm now expects to begin purchases of 300mm tooling for its DMOS-6 fab shell towards the end of 2000, and to begin pilot production work in early 2001. Volume production, probably with a second-generation 0.13µm process, will follow about a year later. Knowledgeable observers suggested that this timeline will probably be typical of the industry as a whole, since it would be difficult to conduct a new round of tool evaluations any sooner. Intel also envisions production in 2002 after equipment installation next year.
Research and consortia news
Belgian research center IMEC has launched a 100nm program to help work through the "major technological bottlenecks" expected in implementing processes at the 100nm node before 2003. Work will reach across a number of areas, including advanced etching techniques, new gate stacks (including the introduction of high-k gate dielectrics), and ultra-shallow junction formation. Moreover, IMEC's 193nm program, which covers step and scan systems, resist development, and implementation of resolution enhancement techniques such as phase shift and OPC, will play a key role in the 100nm project. Ludo Deferm, associate VP of process integration and VP of business development, noted that IMEC's 157nm program is currently part of its 193nm effort, but that plans call for IMEC to spin out a separate 157 focus later. In addition, IMEC said that it has demonstrated a dual damascene copper architecture using Dow's SiLK dielectric material, which has a constant of 2.64. Again in line with its 100nm program, IMEC's goal is to have a manufacturable process using a low k with a constant of 2.0 or below by the end of next year.
With all the emphasis on joint R&D at Semicon West, one might think that the existing multicompany consortia such as International Sematech and IMEC would be key resources for smaller companies. Not so! Intel is now a member of both consortia and is widely suspected of using its membership to entrench itself. Those smaller companies (and their suppliers) are working to conceal their most promising results from the consortia of which they are members, according to well-connected observers.
Litho update
Lithography supplier Canon is seeking a partner to help make its IDEAL double-exposure resolution enhancement technology more user-friendly and easier to implement for designers and mask producers, said Phil Ware, director of technical marketing and assistant GM. "We'd like someone who's good at converting designs into reticles," said Ware. "It has to be something you can get from any mask vendor, and readily available." Canon says IDEAL-enhanced high-NA 193nm tools could print features as small as 60 or 70nm; Ware also noted that the company expects to introduce a 0.75 NA 248nm system in the next year or so, with plans calling for production 157nm tools to appear in 2003.
Rival Nikon isn't offering a 157nm timeline just yet. Senior VP of engineering John Wiesner said the firm has a goal of reaching a go/no-go decision on the technology by year's end, based on opinion about whether a production-worthy tool can be built, profit potential, and whether infrastructure (masks, resists, pellicles, etc.) will be available. Separately, Motorola's Will Conley noted, "157 is the most difficult optical technology, but the least difficult post-193 technology."
While it was in a quiet period at Semicon West, excimer laser supplier Cymer still claimed over 90% of the lithography market for DUV and ArF lasers. However, Komatsu (which has developed 1kHz and 2kHz 248nm sources) claims 70% of the lithography lasers installed in Japan, and 16% of the world market, even though no lasers were shipped out of Japan in 1998. With one laser each in Taiwan and Korea, Komatsu hopes for 25-27% of the world market in 1999, roughly 100 lasers. Since Cymer expects to ship over 400 and Lambda Physik has not closed up shop, laser availability may be improving.
 Cymer's ELS-6000 excimer laser, designed for <0.18µm geometries, was introduced. |
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CMP trends
Lam Research CMP business unit VP Wilbur Krusell cited three significant CMP trends: cost of consumables, where customers are seeking a 50% reduction over the next 18 months; better process control, particularly extracting better data and knowing more about the end point; and the advent of metal as the technology driver.
Scott Kulicke, CEO of Kulicke & Soffa. The company presented packaging technology for chips with copper interconnects.
With commercialization efforts heating up, web-based, slurry-free CMP is fast becoming the darling of the planarization world. As one executive notes, slurry-free CMP "was a promise and a whisper a year ago" and now "the momentum has been established." During the Semicon West show, there seemed to be little doubt that the fixed abrasive approach would supplant some portion of the current CMP market and most major CMP tool players have some type of fixed-abrasives programs running. Applied Materials (through its pending acquisition of web-based CMP tool startup Obsidian) and SpeedFam-IPEC have already announced their efforts, and Ebara is said to have activity in the fixed-abrasives arena also. 3M, which has a marketing alliance with pad supplier Rodel, is in the process of taking its slurry-free matrix into the final commercialization stage. "Everyone wants to work with us, but it is a time for focus," notes Chuck Kummeth, 3M program manager. "We are working with the major toolmakers needed to complete the STI and copper product commercialization." Most of 3M's slurry-free development work to date has centered on ILD, PND, and STI applications, but programs for copper CMP, for which the introduction of a reactant is required, are rapidly under way, Kummeth noted.
Company news highlights
Applied Materials unveiled a new "Total Service Solutions" program, in which the equipment behemoth will offer to handle all system maintenance on its tools, as well as own and manage all spare parts, including consumables. For maintenance, users pay a flat fee/system to cover labor and nonconsumables, and a guaranteed price/wafer pass, which is reduced over time as equipment performance is optimized.
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Scott Kulicke, Kulicke & Soffa CEO.
Back-end equipment leaders Kulicke & Soffa and ESEC were presenting packaging technology for chips with copper interconnects; both firms indicated that bonding issues have not gotten the attention they deserve. If copper bond pads are used on copper chips, as seems likely, it could prompt a shift to copper bonding wire instead of gold, for metallurgical and cost reasons. "If you want to ramp [copper chip] production next year, you're already in the window when you have to qualify [packaging materials]," said K&S CEO Scott Kulicke.
Genus rolled out a new atomic-level CVD tool, based on its Lynx cluster platform, de signed for use on ultrathin films of less than 100Å. Applications for the Lynx2 ALD include ad vanced gate die lectrics, ultrathin barrier layers, and memory capacitors; chief technical officer Tom Seidel called the system "very important for the company," which has reoriented itself following the sale of its ion implant unit to Varian last year. Shipments are to begin next year.
Entegris, the product of the union between privately held materials handling firms Fluoroware and Empak, used Semicon West to offer up more information about its business plans. The company will consolidate its materials labs in Minnesota, has combined separate wafer shipping container development programs (rolling out a reduced-pitch front-opening shipper box at the show), and expects to have much better financial strength. Asked whether an IPO might be in the works, senior VP Mike Wright commented, "There are many ways to raise capital. We would not rule out an IPO, but we have a merger to wrap up - that's the priority."
Micron Force Instruments rolled out a wafer probing system based on atomic-force microscope technology. The system, which will be sold through equity investor Suss Microtec AG (the former Karl Suss, which recently went public in Germany), can place probes with submicron accuracy, allowing failure analysis measurements of circuit elements much more quickly than e-beam based systems.
After being acquired by USFilter's Kinetics group earlier this year, Unit Instruments is living on through Kinetics' newly formed Fluid Systems group, which has brought together recent acquisitions Unit, Insync Systems, Kinetics' Submicron Products unit, and most recently, e-Flow, a Sunnyvale, CA-based ultrahigh-purity gas and liquid delivery systems firm. Odile Ronat, director of marketing for Fluid Systems, said the group will retain the Unit name and operate the Unit business as a separate group under Fluid Systems. "We're remaining very focused on flow control technology," she noted. New offerings are also on tap, including a combined MFC/pressure regulator. The mass flow regulator is said to reduce the size and overall cost of a typical gas stick, and eliminates the need for local pressure regulation. Beta testing began last month.
Unusually warm weather caused a minor power problem on the first afternoon of Semicon West, leaving many exhibitors without full power, and worse, minus air conditioning. Some exhibitors left the hall on Monday somewhat unsettled, uncertain of whether the lights would be on the following day, but Pacific Gas & Electric came through, providing ample amps by Tuesday.
Solid State Technology, Microlithography World, and WaferNews editors Bob Haavind, Pete Burggraaf, M. David Levenson, Christine Lunday, and Peter Dunn contributed to this report.
This time, 300mm is for real, says Applied's Dan Maydan
There is good news and bad news on the shift to 300mm wafers, said Dan Maydan, president of Applied Materials in an exclusive interview during SEMI West. The good news is that it appears certain that the transition is now going to take place in the next couple of years, with a strong commitment from Intel building momentum so that many other chipmakers will follow. The bad news, according to Maydan, is that building tools for 300mm at 0.13µm and beyond presents different technical problems than were addressed in earlier efforts. Considerable new engineering is needed as a result, and the semiconductor manufacturers are not paying for it, as they did in earlier upgrades to 150mm and 200mm. It has already cost many millions for the transition - SEMI resident Stan Myers estimates that some $5 billion has already been spent by the tool community on the 300mm transition with almost no sales. Maydan said some 20 pieces of Applied process equipment need to be modified, and, because of different applications, it means about 60 new versions of tools for 300mm processing.
How can Applied be certain that Intel is serious this time? They are making a full commitment, according to Maydan, putting top people and costly resources into the joint effort. He also pointed out that the reason for the shift to 300mm is different now than it was in the past. Bigger wafers were a way for chipmakers to add capacity in past transitions, but, with the rapid shrinks of recent times, the current shift is aimed instead at reducing costs. "It is not a capacity push," Maydan commented. By contrast, he said, the foundries may go to 300mm tools to add capacity because of the rapid growth of demand in that sector.
Wafer cost will be a major issue in the 300mm transition, he said. In the past, crystal puller designs could simply be scaled up to make larger wafers, but this time totally new equipment was needed. Thus, wafers matching the quality of today's production-worthy 200mm wafers might cost 6 or 7x as much. To compensate for this, Applied is planning to add epitaxial processing units to 300mm tools so that lower-quality wafers can be upgraded to match today's quality. These wafers might only cost 2 or 3x today's prices, and by then curing dislocations and defects using what Applied calls Epitaxial Optimized Substrate processing, total wafer costs can be reduced 30-50%, he explained. Applied has already shipped some prototypes of 300mm tools with the epi option to Siemens for use in 0.25µm processing. Only Applied and ASM are adding this epi option to their tools, Maydan said.
Through the downturn, Applied Materials has gained global market share, going from about 19 to 25% of the total tool market. If lithography is excluded, AMAT probably moved from about 25 to 30% of the total non-litho tool market, he estimated. Although he said selling integrated tools as a unit to provide total process solutions has been very successful, he felt it would be difficult to attribute the market share growth to this approach. Instead, Maydan said, "We offer the best technology. We are not always first, but when we do enter a market, we have the best technology." If the company doesn't have it internally, the company gets technology through acquisitions, he explained. The other factor is production worthiness. Since AMAT serves most market segments, it can help customers not just with each process, but with technical problems such as interactions between layers.
As process complexity increases, Applied is more frequently outsourcing to smaller suppliers to provide technology components. These include areas such as wafer cleaning, monitoring, and inspection, for example. Maydan also said that Applied "did not lose one penny through a 30-40% drop in the business. We re-engineered the company without one quarter of loss." - Bob Haavind