Worldwide highlights
12/01/1996
Worldwide highlights
Tool sales slumping. Orders for North American semiconductor capital equipment continued to slow in September, totaling $789.6 million, as the SEMI book-to-bill for fab tools remained flat at 0.71 - the same level as August (see figure below). Observers suggest that things will get worse for equipment suppliers before they get better, but a revised semiconductor market forecast from Dataquest indicates that 1997 will see solid 13% growth in chip sales. The September equipment orders were down 10% from August, and 30% from year-ago levels. Shipments from North American vendors were $1.11 billion, also 10% below August, and roughly even with September 1995. Bookings have declined each month since February, when they set a record of just under $1.7 billion. The drop in shipments has trailed, with companies producing in the capacity-limited range of $1.35 billion until July, when they started to slip.
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"Recent signs of the rising demand for computer chips indicate that the semiconductor downturn may have bottomed out," said Elizabeth Schumann, senior market analyst for SEMI. "If this trend persists, we expect a similar recovery for the capital equipment industry to begin within a few quarters. However, the continued drop in equipment orders suggests the current cycle has not yet hit bottom."
Fabless group sees slower growth.
Citing excess inventories and slower overall demand, the Fabless Semiconductor Association has lowered its wafer demand forecast to a projected three-year CAGR of 30%, rather than the 40% predicted earlier this year, with 1996 growth being substantially less than earlier estimates. The revised estimate is based on a new survey of 56 fabless chip companies, who represent 90% of 1995 wafer output in the fabless sector. Each company was asked for actual wafer purchases made in the first half, and for revised estimates of purchases during the third and fourth quarters of this year as well as 1997 and 1998. Analysis of the replies suggests that 1996 wafer demand will increase by just 14% over 1995, rather than the original rate of 39%. In addition to inventories and slow demand, companies attributed the changes to improved yield and the availability of more-advanced technology. However, 30% of the respondents said that they met or exceeded their earlier forecast, and several small companies were still reporting wafer supply issues.
The United States Display Consortium (USDC) and the Electronic Display Industrial Research Association of Korea have signed an agreement to facilitate cooperation between the two flat panel display organizations. Under the agreement, the organizations will cooperate on common issues by setting industry standards, establishing a strong manufacturing infrastructure, and setting up working groups to examine cooperative research into emissive and nonemissive FPD technology. In addition, the USDC has awarded a multiprogram contract to Supertex Inc. for driver chip design and packaging. Each group will contribute $1.2 million to the project.