For everything there is a season

11/01/1996

For everything there is a season

Afunny thing happened at a conference I attended recently. Usually, when I meet with research scientists and product managers, I ask most of the questions. That`s my role as a journalist. But recently I find that I`m answering almost as many questions as I ask. What do I think of this or that company`s prospects? Which companies do I think are more innovative or more successful in developing innovations into products? What do I think of this or that new conference or publication?

The switch puzzled me at first, but I think I understand it now. The downturn has jolted people. Some know people who have lost their jobs, or have been brushed by the cold finger of layoffs themselves. Even the most secure position at the largest company doesn`t seem quite so secure these days. So, people are examining their options, looking at other companies where they may find more stability, and trying to become more visible in the industry. Many may be considering new ventures funded by early retirement packages. I suspect we`ll soon see a flurry of startups on the less-explored fringes of the industry.

Much the same thing is happening to companies as well. With growth pressures reduced for the time being, some companies are taking this opportunity to expand capacity, to undertake difficult development projects, and to improve their market positioning. Some companies see innovation as a critical competitive advantage, and are devoting more energy to research and development.

A great deal has been said about the dark side of a cyclic downturn - reduced earnings, layoffs, pressure on stock prices. Much less attention has been paid to the positive, regenerative effects. Any farmer knows that the fall and winter restore moisture and nutrients for the next spring`s planting. Likewise, the low spots in the business cycle allow companies to rest and plant the seeds of the next expansion - research, training, and infrastructure. Wise companies (and executives) will recognize this opportunity for what it is: a time to re-examine old business models, refocus on core expertise, and invest for the long term.

It`s difficult to be wise in today`s business climate. The financial markets focus on quarterly results, and the slightest dip can spark a selling frenzy. Executives feel tremendous pressure to trim costs in parallel with revenues. Still, as Curtis Crawford, president of Lucent Technologies` Microelectronics Group has said (October, p. 256), "If the semiconductor industry reduces its investments and cuts production of silicon-making equipment, it will find it much harder to climb back up the ramp and satisfy customers when it gets through this temporary downturn."

Thus, wise companies will remember that the industry fundamentals are healthy, so growth will come back. They`ll resist the temptation to make hasty cutbacks, because aggressive pruning now makes room for weeds that can strangle the next expansion.

As you may have noticed on your way to this page, we`ve made a few minor design changes this month. Most significantly, the table of contents is cleaner and more consistent to make articles easier to find and to more comfortably accommodate larger issues. Second, the cover date is more prominent for quick identification of specific issues. In addition, we`ve made minor color and layout changes to Technology News, Market Watch, and other areas for better overall readability. (Art director Deb Browne, by the way, has earned my heartfelt thanks for her expert advice, and for making this design update as painless and efficient as possible.) You`ll find that our content hasn`t changed, though. We`re still committed to being the primary information resource for semiconductor processing professionals.