Wafer trek: The next generation
07/01/1997
Wafer trek: The next generation
Mark Stromberg, VLSI Research Inc., San Jose, California
In the past, in order to process chips in a more cost-efficient manner, the industry has continuously increased the diameter of wafers. The 300-mm wafer generation is the next step in that progression. For a given quantity of silicon, with all other things held constant, it should cost semiconductor manufacturers 75% as much to process 200-mm wafers as it will cost to process 150-mm wafers (Fig. 1). Chipmakers processing 300-mm wafers will incur half the costs of their competitors running 150-mm wafers.
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Is the industry committed to 300-mm production?
Chipmakers, equipment companies, and material suppliers will have to meet the challenges brought on by the 300-mm transition. Although there is some apprehension about the transition, many semiconductor firms are committed to building fabs that will process 300-mm wafers (see table). Some of these facilities will likely begin production with 200-mm wafers; others will be smaller facilities used for R&D. With the increasing importance of foundries, it is noteworthy that no foundry has announced a 300-mm facility. However, TSMC has stated that 300-mm fabs will be part of its investment plans over the next decade.
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Figure 1. Cost/unit of silicon (relative to 150-mm wafers).
Semiconductor industry players have started joint efforts to make the 300-mm transition as smooth as possible. These joint efforts have brought about the creation of I300I, SELETE, and J300. I300I, a consortium with members from the US, Europe, Korea, and Taiwan, and its Japanese equivalent, SELETE, are studying technical and economic issues concerning the 300-mm wafer generation. I300I members and SELETE have already taken deliveries of 300-mm equipment and have begun the appraisal process. By the end of the year, SELETE plans on having about 50 tools for the evaluation process at its proving ground, a 2200-m2 cleanroom at Hitachi`s Yokohama facility. J300, a Japanese-based consortium, is working on establishing equipment standards for the 300-mm generation. I300I is working with J300 in this effort.
Will 300-mm production equipment be ready?
Equipment makers have tremendous opportunities, along with possible problems, in supplying semiconductor manufacturers with 300-mm capable equipment. Equipment companies must not only be ready to meet the demand for 300-mm tools, but must look at costs associated with the change in linewidth technology.
Between 1997 and 1998, 300-mm equipment for 0.25-?m processing will be designed and evaluated. By 1999, 300-mm pilot line production will likely begin.
Volume production using 300-mm wafers should start up in 2000, with multiple line production most likely occurring in 2003. However, by mid-1999, 0.18-?m technology should be the leading-edge design rule. At the same time that equipment makers are preparing to supply the 0.25-?m
300-mm ramp, 0.25-?m technology will likely no longer be the leading edge linewidth. There are not expected to be enough tools designed for 0.18-?m production on 300-mm wafers until 2004. While historically the best route to a new generation wafer size has been through an old generation technology, it is hard to believe that more than a few chip executives will be able to convince their boards that spending billions on an obsolete technology is a wise investment.
Although the 300-mm transition will likely be a long road, there are some positive aspects for the equipment industry. In 2000, just under $2.3 billion in 300-mm equipment sales are forecast, and this market will grow to over $16 billion by 2004 (Fig. 2). Between those years, the compound annual growth rate for 300-mm tool sales will be over 62%.
Many firms have already begun supplying 300-mm equipment. ADE Corp. has shipped 300-mm capable wafer measurement tools to customers in Japan and the US. In the first quarter of 1997, Applied Materials shipped a 300-mm RTP tool to Hyundai`s Eugene, OR, facility. The tool was the first production-line wafer process tool shipped. Look for 300-mm equipment sale announcements to become more common as chipmakers complete the evaluation process and begin the move into pilot production.
The combined impact of the wafer transition and the change in linewidth generation poses a double threat to equipment suppliers. The price for an established equipment company to develop a new tool can be as high as 20-30 times the average selling price of that piece of equipment once it reaches market. Equipment makers, many of which have annual sales well under $100 million, will have to spend the money up front if they want to play the 300-mm game. Moreover, steppermakers have been slow to get on the 300-mm road. Chipmakers will not be able to ramp up their 300-mm lines without sufficient numbers of 300-mm capable steppers.
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Figure 2. 300-mm equipment sales 1998-2004.
Where will all the wafers come from?
Many fear a shortage of production quality 300-mm wafers over the next several years. Wafer suppliers have begun announcing their 300-mm facility plans in preparation for the increased demand for their product. Komatsu, Mitsubishi, SEH, Sumitomo Sitix, and Toshiba Ceramics have all announced plants that will manufacture 300-mm wafers. These facilities should be coming online over the next year and a half. The combined capacity of these announcements will be just over 1.2 million wafers/month. By 2002, demand for 300-mm wafers should be 4.5 million wafers/year. To avoid a wafer shortage, wafermakers will have to nearly quadruple their currently announced 300-mm capacity by 2002.
The 300-mm wafer generation is fast approaching. While the difficulties this may bring should not be taken lightly, those firms that engage in the market and stay the course will likely be rewarded. In 2002, the semiconductor market will exceed $350 billion. From this, equipment makers will generate more than $68 billion in revenue. These large markets will be available to those firms that demonstrate a willingness to meet challenges such as the 300-mm transition.
Mark Stromberg has been a market research analyst with VLSI Research Inc. since April 1996. VLSI Research Inc., 1754 Technology Drive, Suite 117, San Jose, CA 95110-1308; ph 408/453-8844, fax 408/437-0608, e-mail [email protected].