World Highlights
06/01/1997
Worldwide highlights
Semiconductor equipment book-to-bill up for March. The North American semiconductor equipment industry posted a book-to-bill ratio of 1.17 for March, up from a revised ratio of 1.07 for February (see figure), according to SEMI. Total equipment orders in March rose 15.6% to $1.28 billion over the previous month, yet were 12% below the March 1996 level. Total equipment shipped by North American suppliers this March increased 6.2% to $1.09 billion over February, yet were 13% below the March 1996 level.
 |
Tariffs removed on wafer fab tools.
The Information Technology Agreement (ITA) to eliminate tariffs on information technology products, including semiconductor equipment, parts, and silicon, has been finalized in Geneva. Under the agreement, 39 countries, including Malaysia, Thailand, and some in Latin America, have agreed to eliminate tariffs on information technology products, including wafer fab equipment and materials, by the year 2000, and in some circumstances up to 2005. The deal represents more than 90% of all trade in information technology products. The tariff cuts will be phased in over the next few years, with tariffs at 3% or below reduced to zero by July 1 and the remaining tariffs reduced in four equal installments. A SEMI spokeswoman said the agreement will have a significant bearing on the industry because it will result in an ultimate reduction of manufacturing costs.
Continuing fabless wafer demand. The third annual Fabless Semiconductor Association (FSA) wafer demand survey anticipates about 40% CAGR in demand through the end of the decade, with a shift to smaller device geometries occurring faster than originally expected. Demand for 0.5 ?m and smaller is the dominant segment for this year, and 0.35 and smaller will be dominant by 1999. Last year`s survey was 67% accurate -wafer demand growth for 1996 was forecast to be 41%, while the actual was 29%. Companies may have over-forecast last year because they did not anticipate high yields from larger wafers and improved processes. Many companies reported yields from 200-mm wafers were two times that of 150-mm wafers, while original estimates were only 1.5 to 1.8 times more good dice/wafer. Wafer needs are expected to grow approximately 40% annually (see table), with a significant shift to smaller geometries. Investment analysts foresee 25% revenue growth from `96 to `97. While it`s likely that the real number will be somewhere between the two, reduced fabless margins may account for some of the discrepancy. For information about the wafer demand survey or other FSA activities, contact the FSA at ph 972/239-5119, fax 972/774-4577, email [email protected], or http://www.fsa.org.
Chip sales decline in February. Worldwide semiconductor sales continued to decline in February, according to figures released in the Semiconductor Industry Association`s Global Billings Report. The month-to-month decline was especially pronounced in Japan and the Asia-Pacific region (see table 1). However, the Japanese yen declined 3.1% during the period, exaggerating the downturn when converted to US dollars. Measured in local currency, the monthly slip was only 1.3%. February`s figure marks the third consecutive decline in monthly billings since November 1996`s total of $11.09 billion. February`s total was almost $700 million lower than this level, and only about $200 million above the trough reached in 3Q96, when monthly billings were just over $10.2 billion. While the billings figures are certainly not a positive sign, most analysts are staying with their predictions of modest semiconductor market growth for the year.