Gone Fishing
01/01/2009
I really like fly fishing. I’ve always wanted a fishing rod of my own, not one left over from an older brother’s stock of cast-offs, but a number 6 Orvis with just the right balance and flexibility for my style of trout fishing. Last year it arrived under the Christmas tree; now it waits in my closet for some private time on a sunny morning standing in the Souhegan River here in New Hampshire.
There’s a peacefulness to fishing that surpasses most anything, like the repetitive rhythm of wafer test — the wrist falls to a 10:00 position, pause, 2:00; 10:00, pause, 2:00. Of course when you land a really big one, like those that Lee Smith, marketing director of Amkor landed during his Alaskan trip last year, the event goes into more of an athletic contest and the adrenalin just flows. But all in all, like the cyclic electronics market, there’s a natural rhythm to fishing.
After editing this forecast issue of Advanced Packaging, it became evident that other industry leaders might also enjoy fishing. SEMI’s Tom Morrow pointed out that the electronics industry is tied to the health and stabilization of the world’s economy. Alchimer’s Steve Lerner added that it’s not the first time the semiconductor industry has experienced a downturn, and the industry will manage to work itself out. Though orders for new equipment and materials haven’t been cancelled, many programs have stalled, particularly ones from financially strapped memory makers. Manish Ranjan of Ultratech added that despite global economic events, the outlook for advanced packaging applications remains relatively bright, what with the fast adoption of flip chip packaging and commercialization of fan out wafer-level packaging.
Even recent news regarding the top packaging firms is negative at present reporting: Intel Corporation announced preliminary fourth-quarter financial information with revenue of approximately $8.2 billion, down 20% sequentially and down 23% year over year. Revenue will be lower than the company’s previous expectation, provided on Nov. 12, 2008, as a result of further weakness in end demand and inventory reductions by its customers in the global PC supply chain.
The cover of this issue ties everything together. Weathering a storm together is always easier than going it alone. Joe Fjelstad of Verdant Electronics said that important innovations are frequently born and developed during times when manufacturing has slowed. He mentioned that during 2008, the growth and expansion of 3D packaging and assembly technologies was an obvious advancement and that the explosive expansion of photovoltaic technology has captured the electronics industry’s attention. There are lots of great ideas in our forecast article related to what shows potential and where the packaging industry is headed. This is not a time to slow down. It’s time to think, move differently, make some decisions, and find where you can get ahead using this new knowledge.
No one really knows when the recession will end, because the casting isn’t finished. Standing still isn’t an option. And besides, right now it’s time for lunch. Today’s special is haddock.
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Gail Flower
Editor-in-Chief