Finally, a little good news
11/01/2001
According to the September 2001 update to IC Insight's (Scottsdale, AZ) McClean Report, the integrated circuit (IC) recovery of 2001 (Fig. 2) will most certainly mirror that "canoe" shape, or rolling bottom, that the market witnessed back in 1985 (Fig. 1), meaning companies should not expect to see a spike in either the IC market or the IC average selling price (ASP) like the one that occurred in 1998.
 Fig 1. (top); Fig. 2 (bottom) |
To put things into perspective, IC ASPs hit what industry experts believe to be "the bottom" in July, with prices below $1.70. Incidentally, during the same month 16 years ago, ASPs hit bottom at $0.96.
According to the market watchdog, the IC ASPs bottomed out in the July/August timeframe of 2001, with the IC market bottom overlapping by one month during the August/September period. A slight increase in the three-month average IC market figures was forecasted to begin October 2001. "The primary reason for the expectation of a moderate upturn in late 2001 is the overhang of excess wafer start capacity," states Bill McClean in the update. "The excess capacity is forecast to dampen IC ASP increases and, in turn, subdue a potential spike in the late 2001 IC market. Excess capacity is also what kept IC ASP increases to a minimum in 1985, even as the market bottomed and unit volume demand rebounded."