Analysts: “Long, dark season” ahead
12/01/2008
Many OEMs held off on the usual holiday-season production ramp amid expectations of weak consumer demand due to the global economic crisis, and this has created a ripple effect all along the electronic systems supply chain from ODMs and EMS companies to chip packaging and foundries, and ultimately causing a shortfall in 4Q08 chip orders, notes Gartner in a research report.
 Top 20 semiconductor sales leaders by growth rate, 1Q07-3Q07 vs. 1Q08-3Q08. (Source: IC Insights, company reports) |
Wafermakers waited to pull back on builds until mid-quarter, and much of that inventory will need to be worked down; meanwhile, fabs are still churning through the excess inventory accumulated even before the financial meltdowns, so look for sluggish wafer starts through 1Q09, write Gartner analysts Andrew Phillips and Jim Walker. They point to indications of a -20% slump in notebook PC demand, TSMC’s 75% utilization rate and -24% shipment projections; and big dropoffs expected in wafer shipments.
All’s not woeful in the industry, though. IC Insights says the current rank of top 20 semiconductor suppliers???each racking up >$3B in sales so far this year, and minus memory firms including Qimonda, Elpida, and Spansion???slightly outperformed the rest of the industry (6% vs. 4%). Still, this grouping is expected to slide -8% in 4Q, resulting in full-year growth of ˜2%.
WORLDWIDE HIGHLIGHTS
SMIC says it will suspend expansion plans in 2009, lowering capex to ˜$200M from ˜790M in 2008, and is still seeking investors. UMC, meanwhile, is cutting back capex plans over the next several quarters???and revealed that 4Q08 utilization could plunge to 55%. And TSMC sees its 2009 capex to be down around 20% vs. 2008 levels.
Brion Technologies and NuFlare Technology will jointly develop products for 32nm node and below mask equipment incorporating Brion’s Tachyon verification technology and NuFlare’s reticle writing and inspection systems.
USA
Entegris is closing the larger of its two manufacturing plants in Chaska, MN, shifting work to Asia and cutting 7% of its global workforce in a bid to shave $6M-$8M/year starting in 2010. Cadence Design Systems is laying off12% of its workforce in a similar bid to save up to $150M in annual operating costs.
An ex-AMD employee is being charged with stealing trade secrets from his previous employer, Intel. The former worker in Intel’s Hudson, MA site claims he was downloading the documents???reportedly secret/classified documents including CAD drawings and process information, valued at >$1B???for his wife, who now works there.
ASIAFOCUS
Panasonic is repositioning a proposal for Sanyo Electric fto take over the ˜70% stake owned by Goldman Sachs and Japanese banks Sumitomo Mitsui and Daiwa Securities, would bolster Panasonic’s battery and solar areas, and give Sanyo financial clout.
Meanwhile, after an initial offer and heavy speculation, Samsung has abandoned its $26/share (˜$5.85B) buyout offer for SanDisk???which then questioned its suitor’s motives in the first place.
UMC claims it has the first fully functional 28nm SRAM chips made by a foundry, utilizing technologies including a high-k/metal gate stack, double-patterning immersion lithography, and strained silicon.
Soitec has inaugurated its “Pasir Ris 1” 300mm wafer fab in Singapore. Total investment is expected to be ˜50 million Euros at full capacity of 1M wafers/year.
Startup AMEC has secured $58M in new funding, which will be used solely to support work on its DRIE etch tool.
EUROFOCUS
Qimonda says it has ramped to commercial production volumes of 65nm 1Gbit DDR2 DRAM chips using its buried wordline technology, achieved first yields at 46nm, and taped out 2G DDR3 chips based on the technology.
Wacker Chemie has laid out plans to build a new 10,000 metric ton polysilicon facility (dubbed “Poly 9”) in Nunchritz, Germany, with first material to be ready by 1Q11 and full production achieved by the end of that year.