Chip sales still chugging along, slowly
09/01/2008
Worldwide semiconductor sales in Q2 2008 totaled $64.7B, up 3% from Q1 2008, and H12008 chip sales totaled $127.5B, up 5.4% from 1H 2007???together suggesting that rising oil prices have had little impact on demand for electronic products, and thus semiconductor sales, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.
Memory concerns aside, there’s still reason to be happy with growth in the semiconductor industry, mainly thanks to emerging markets’ hunger for PCs and mobile phones, according to SIA president George Scalise. He pointed to double-digit growth in the two biggest semiconductor end-markets: PCs (~40% of semiconductor sales) and mobile phones (~20% of sales), and cited JP Morgan estimates of 13% unit growth in PCs this year, and industry estimates of 10%-12% for mobile handsets.
Worldwide semiconductor sales growth by region, based on a three-month moving average. (Source: SIA, WSTS) |
Scalise also noted the growing influence of emerging markets (and their expanding middle-class populations) in semiconductor sales. Half of worldwide PC sales will come from emerging markets this year, he said, with 19% growth in unit sales (double the rate of developing markets) to 153M units. And developing countries will also account for two-thirds (66%) of total mobile phone unit sales of >1.3B, up from 61% in 2007.
Lousy pricing conditions persist, particularly in memory???1G DRAM ASPs have sunk 43% in the past year, and 2GB NAND flash is down 61%. But the pricing problem actually “tend[s] to mask the real growth of the industry,” Scalise said, since it enables more memory to be used in consumer devices. Micron, he pointed out, expects a 50% increase in memory content/PC this year. And data from Credit Suisse suggests that DRAM capex is slowing this year to help rebalance supply/demand by year-end.
WORLDWIDE HIGHLIGHTS
KLA-Tencor has agreed to acquire Vistec Semiconductor Systems’ microelectronic inspection equipment (MIE) business in Weilburg, Germany???a deal analysts tell SST is likely motivated by a market grab in photomask metrology.
STMicroelectronics may be close to a deal to offload its 200mm fab in Phoenix to an Asian pure-play foundry, according to one analyst. The site is one of several worldwide chosen a year ago to be mothballed to save money and carve out trailing-edge operations.
China’s domestic consumption of locally designed semiconductors will rise by >60% through to 2012 to $42.1B, according to iSuppli. But overall chip consumption in China is clearly decelerating: 2008 consumption is pegged at $81B, up just 7% from 2007 and compared with a 27.7% CAGR from 2001-2006.
TSMC is said to be producing only the 55nm GPU for AMD’s Fusion processor; the CPU will initially involve 45nm processes on SOI.
USA
IBM is investing $1B over the next three years in its semiconductor plant in East Fishkill, NY, with the state kicking in $65M in funds, according to local media reports.
ASIAFOCUS
Taiwan’s government-backed Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) is backing a consortium with nine semiconductor companies to develop 3D IC technology.
Toppan Printing and DuPont in the US are teaming up to boost production of solar cell backsheets.
Hynix says the US is lifting a 23.78% duty on its DRAM chips.
EUROFOCUS
Oerlikon has shipped its first 200mm MEMS cluster tool to Korea.
Qimonda saw its quarterly net losses nearly double Y-Y, while revenue fell 48%.
Linde said its profits in Q2 2008 EBITDA would rise 11.8% on strong gas demand.