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Yole Développement announced today its new report “UV LEDs: Technology & Application Trends” which presents UV LED new applications and associated market metrics for the period 2012-2020, and a deep analysis of UV LED technology and UV LED lighting industry.

Thanks to UV curing, UV LEDs should become a $270M business by 2017, and could hit $300M if new applications boom

Thanks to its compactness, low cost of ownership and environmentally-friendly composition, UV LED continues to replace incumbent technologies like mercury. Hence, the UV LED business is expected to grow from $45M in 2012 to nearly $270M by 2017, at a CAGR of 43% — whereas the traditional UV lamps market will grow at a CAGR of 10% during the same time period.

In 2012, UVA/UVB applications represented 89% of the overall UV LED market. Amongst these applications, UV curing is the most dynamic and most important market, due to significant advantages offered over traditional technologies (lower cost of ownership, system miniaturization, etc.). This trend is reinforced by the whole supply chain, which is pushing for the technology’s adoption: from UV LED module and system manufacturers to ink formulators and (of course) the associations created to promote the technology. And with Heraeus Noblelight’s recent acquisition of Fusion UV (Jan. 2013), all major UV curing system manufacturers are now involved in the UV LED technology transition.

Concerning UVC applications, they are still in their infancy and their sales are mainly for R&D purposes and analytic instruments like spectrophotometers. But given some newly published results (increase of EQE over 10%, etc.) and the recent commercialization of the world’s first UVC LED-based disinfection system (2012), the market should kick into gear within the next two years.

In addition to traditional applications (UV lamps replacement), and due to their unique properties (compactness, higher lifetime, robustness, etc.), UV LEDs are also creating new applications that aren’t accessible to traditional UV lamps, i.e. apps that are miniaturized and portable.

“In 2012, several new UV LED based products were launched, including cell phone disinfection systems, nail gel curing systems and miniaturized counterfeit money detectors – and this is likely to continue!” explains announced Pars Mukish, Technology & Market Analyst, LED, at Yole Développement. “We estimate that if new UV LED applications continue emerging, the associated business could represent nearly $30M by 2017, which would increase the overall UV LED market size to nearly $300M,” he adds.

This market and technology analysis is a comprehensive review of every UV application (including a deep analysis of UV curing and UV disinfection purification), highlighting: UV working principle, market structure, UV LED market drivers and the challenges/characteristics associated, time-to-market, penetration rate & Total Accessible Market (TAM) for UV LEDs, and much more. Additionally, Yole Développement details the market metrics for traditional UV lamps and UV LEDs over the period 2012 – 2017, with splits by application for each technology (volume & market size, etc.).

The report also presents an analysis of emerging UV LED applications, detailing: short-term applications that have already begun emerging, UV LED Concept Knowledge theory, and more.

Once UVC LED performance is sufficient, the supply chain battle will intensify

The booming UVA/UVB market (mostly UV curing) has attracted several new players from different backgrounds over the past few years: traditional UV lamp suppliers, traditional UV system suppliers, pure UV LED system suppliers, and others. Each player employs a different strategy for capturing the maximum value created by this disruptive technology: horizontal integration (from UV lamp to UV LED), vertical integration (from UV LED device to UV LED system and vice-versa) or both (from UV lamp to UV LED system). We should point out that traditional UV lamp manufacturers are under the most pressure since they have to compensate for the waning lamp replacement market by diversifying their activities in higher supply chain levels.

In the end, every UV LED device/system manufacturer faces the same technical issues when it comes to integrating UV LEDs into a system (thermal management, optics, etc.), but experience is gained with each passing year. Once UVC LEDs achieve sufficient performance, there’s no way a manufacturer will allow the opportunity to pass them by. When that moment comes, the whole supply chain will become a mess due to an increasingly competitive environment, and consolidation will be necessary. Yole Développement analysis covers the UV LED industry, detailing: main players & associated strategies/business models, 2012 industrial value & supply chains, key players’ revenue and market share, and much more.

Bulk AlN vs. AlN on sapphire template: no current winner

AlN on sapphire templates are definitely the substrate of choice for UVA applications, as they provide the right mix between cost and performance. However, for UVC applications (and some UVB applications) the competition with bulk AlN substrate is strong, since such material could allow for improvement at the device level in terms of lifetime, efficiency (IQE and EQE) and power output.

Right now, the debate is still on. And even if bulk AlN’s superior performance has been demonstrated by companies such as Crystal-IS and HexaTech, the associated cost (2.5x to 4x more compared to AlN on Sapphire template) still remains an obstacle to developing UVC LEDs at a reasonable price.

Indeed, such a situation has already occurred with GaN substrate for visible LEDs. Bulk GaN was the ideal technical candidate, but cost was too high and sapphire was widely adopted instead. Will UV LEDs meet the same fate?

In addition to substrate issues for UVC LED development, epitaxy represents another challenge for increasing device performance. Such barriers will have to be surpassed before we see commercialized UV LED-based disinfection/purification systems.

world's smallest transceiverABI Research finds that Mediatek has delivered the world’s smallest multimode transceiver. Coming just a week after Qualcomm announced its intentions to produce RF front ends for high tier LTE smartphones, Mediatek releases the world’s smallest RF transceiver which is also the world’s first 40nm transceiver.

The transceiver (MT6167) accompanies the widely publicized MT6589 quad-core application processor/3G modem and the MT6320 power management unit (PMU). The transceiver measures less than 7sq mm and supports 2G and 3G protocols. The norm for transceivers with this functionality is above 20 sq. mm. Qualcomm’s current solution measures in slightly above 25 sq.mm.

“This sharp contrast in die size reflects on more than just design expertise though, it gives a glimpse into the company’s mindset” said Jime Mielke, VP of engineering at ABI research. “Qualcomm continues to push the technology envelope (additional computing power, higher data rates, etc.) while Mediatek follows slightly behind, aiming for the most cost effective and power conscious solutions.” Mielke continues, “Qualcomm will remain the leader of the pack as long as additional technology is required but once the mobile device reaches a point where consumers are satisfied with performance, watch for Mediatek and companies with the same mindset to come on very strong.”

The MT6589 chips also perform well. The chipset measured 40% less power in 2G talk modes and 30% less in 3G talk modes compared to the prior MT6577 solution (as measured in ABI Research’s teardown laboratory). The quad core A7’s provide a smooth UI and plenty of mobile power.

The MT6589 chipset is just one of the Teardowns ABI Research has in its Teardowns Research Service. The complete teardown includes dismantling photos, HD board photos, part list, major component teardowns, die photos, X-rays, a complete set of power measurements, and a block diagram.

Industry consolidation to just three big DRAM suppliers and a reduction in capital expenditures among these manufacturers helped propel DRAM average selling prices (ASPs) up 13% year over year in January, which contributed to a 19.9% jump in the total memory market and a 6.2% increase for the total IC market in January 2013.  The strengthening memory segment also helped boost year-over-year semiconductor sales by 6.2%.  These surprising numbers were positive news for an IC market that, like most other industries, continues to be weighed down by uncertainties regarding the health and direction of the global economy.

DRAM, NAND flash sales indicate a promising year

Significant reductions in capital equipment spending among DRAM manufacturers are expected to stabilize prices at a minimum, but more likely will help drive prices further upward throughout the balance of the year.

Capex budgets are also being trimmed for NAND flash (though not nearly as much as DRAM), and that, along with ongoing unit demand, has put upward pressure on ASPs for these memory devices as well. NAND flash ASPs increased 37% year over year in January.

IC Insights shows monthly DRAM sales were down sequentially (January 2013 over December 2012), but not by as much as the past 10-year average.  On a year-over-year basis, the DRAM market outperformed the past 10-year average as well.  Since 2003, the January DRAM market has averaged year-over-year growth of 18.7%, but in 2013, DRAM sales beat that mark by growing 21.0%. Meanwhile, January year-over-year sales of NAND flash jumped 23.4%, which was 4.4 points less than it has averaged over the past 10 years.  January total IC sales achieved year-over year growth of 6.2%, also slightly lower than the past 10-year average.

It is also worth noting that sequentially, the total semiconductor market (including optoelectronics, sensors/actuators, and discrete components) decreased 12% from December 2012 to January 2013. However, that decrease was far less than the -19% average sequential decrease the semiconductor market has experienced each January between 1999 and 2012.

January IC sales numbers were encouraging and represented a good start to the year.  Further growth in the 2013 IC market is highly dependent on electronic systems growth, which in turn is highly dependent on a healthy global economy.  A healthy U.S. economy is extremely important to the health of the global economy as it represents 24% of worldwide GDP.  The U.S economy is forecast to show slightly better GDP growth in 2013 (2.4%) compared to 2012 (2.2%) and IC Insights’ forecast for global GDP growth remains at 3.2% for 2013.

Fab equipment spending for Front End facilities is expected to be flat in 2013, remaining around $31.7 billion, increasing to $39.3 billion in 2014 — a 24% increase. The SEMI World Fab Forecast also reveals that in 2013 increases for fab equipment spending will vary by technology node and that fab construction spending will increase an overall 6.7% with major spending in China. The report tracks equipment spending at over 180 facilities in 2013. 

More than 262 updates have been made since the last publication of the SEMI World Fab Forecast. Updates are based on announced spending plans, including major changes for TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix, Globalfoundries, UMC, and for some Japanese facilities and LED facilities.  Despite these adjustments, the overall forecast for equipment spending for 2013 has remained about the same. Depending on macro-economic risk factors, possible scenarios project a range of -3% to +3% change rate for fab equipment spending in 2013; in other words, hovering around flat.

Though the overall outlook has improved some, fewer players in the market can afford the rising costs for research and development and upgrading facilities as the amount of money needed to upgrade facilities at the leading edge technologies is immense.  The World Fab Forecast report shows increases for fab equipment spending, varying by technology node.  Fab equipment spending for 17nm and below is expected to kick off in 2013 and increase by a factor of 2.4 to about $25 billion from 2013 to 2014.

Fab construction spending is now expected to increase 6.7% with construction spending to reach almost $6 billion. In 2014, however, construction project spending is expected to contract by about 18%. Construction spending is led by TSMC, with seven different projects for the year; followed by Intel. Fab construction spending in China will increase by a factor of four due to Samsung’s Mega fab in Xian.

Capacity is now forecasted to expand by just 2.8% for this year and to improve to 5.4% growth in 2014.  Excluding 2009, the years 2012 and 2013 show the lowest growth rate for new capacity over the past ten years.   However, pent-up demand is expected for some product types because capacity additions have been cut to minimum levels while chip demand keeps increasing. Capacity additions and equipment spending are expected to pick up in the second half of 2013. In 2014, at least 5% in new capacity will be added and fab equipment spending will increase by 2%. The World Fab Forecast gives detailed capacity information by industry segment and by individual company and fab.

Since the last fab database publication at the end November 2012 SEMI’s worldwide dedicated analysis team has made 262 updates to more than 210 facilities (including Opto/LED fabs) in the database. The latest edition of the World Fab Forecast lists 1,146 facilities (including 310 Opto/LED facilities), with 58 facilities starting production this year and in the near future.

The SEMI World Fab Forecast uses a bottom-up approach methodology, providing high-level summaries and graphs; and in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab. Additionally, the database provides forecasts for the next 18 months by quarter. These tools are invaluable for understanding how the semiconductor manufacturing will look in 2013 and 2014, and learning more about capex for construction projects, fab equipping, technology levels, and products.

SEMI’s Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses.  The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment.

The employment of touch panels on mobile phones has paved the way for easy access to various operations. Moreover, there are increased demands for more specifications with the mobility, notably for outdoor readability. Touch panel makers are seeking ways to catch both greater specifications and lower cost at the same time, amid rapidly falling touch panel prices. Thus, the capacitive touch panel structure is undergoing the sea of changes.

Capacitive touch panels could be largely divided into the GG method (cover glass + ITO glass sensor), mostly used by Apple, and the GFF type (cover glass + two ITO film sensors). However, recent developments have introduced new structures that are more efficient in production and cost; ones with superior optical traits; and some with favorable weight/thickness.

Regardless of the type, the cover glass and touch sensor have a high cost ratio for all structures. As for 10.1-inch tablet PCs, the cover glass takes up 35% and the touch sensor around 30~32% for both GG and GFF types, which is why all the attention is being put on touch sensors.

Cost Ratio of Touch Materials by Structure

display market analysis

(Source: Displaybank, “Touch Panel-use ITO Film/ITO Glass 2013”)

With the rapid growth of the tablet PC market, the ITO film market has seen a staggering growth in demand with more manufacturers, which once insisted on glass sensors, switching over to film. The ITO film industry is even faced with supply shortages because it was late in responding to the exploding demand.

Meanwhile, some laptop models and all-in-one PCs have been employing touch panels with the launch of Windows 8. Since it is still in its initial stages, the touch panels are only employed on some of the high-end ultrabook models. But touch functions are expected to be increasingly applied on mid-end products. Considering that touch panels applied on mid-end products need to be cost efficient, GFF or GG types are most likely to be employed rather than the current G2. However, since there is an absolute shortage of large-sized glass sensor lines, and because mobile devices have to be light, GFF types have a higher chance of employment over the GG, which is why demands for ITO film is expected to grow. But along with such movements, large supplies of ITO film are forecasted for next year, suggesting a quick fall in ITO film sensor prices.

Against this backdrop, Displaybank analyzed and forecasted the ITO film/ITO glass market, technologies, and industry. The report forecasts the market by continuously observing and assessing the following issues:

ITO Sensor Market Forecast
Market forecast based on future touch panel strategies; cost simulations; possible supply capacity; and surrounding infrastructure of the major models, such as the iPad, the iPhone, the Galaxy Note, and the Galaxy.

Film Sensor
Considered enhanced outdoor readability through narrow bezel, use of sunglass film, and increased direct bonding; greater demands for fine patterning as a result of enhanced readability; the problem of resistance which is an obstacle to upsizing; and trends surrounding replacements.

Glass sensor
Considered the employment of thin-film glass; and how to maintain the side solidity to expand the sheet G2 market

At the International Semiconductor Strategy Symposium (ISS Europe), the European semiconductor industry affirmed its ability to innovate. More than 170 top industry representatives agreed on a number of joint steps and strategic measures to strengthen their competitiveness and sustainability. The controversial question whether the best way to attack future challenges will be "More Moore" or "More than Moore," ended in an expected compromise, namely that the industry should pursuit both strategies concurrently, the participants of a panel expressed. Whilst the More than Moore sector is traditionally strong in Europe, going on with More Moore is important for two to three device makers in Europe and in particular for the European equipment suppliers which export 80% of their products.

In a global scale, the semiconductor industry is approaching the move to 450mm wafer processing technology – a step that promises to greatly boost the productivity of semiconductor manufacturers. However, since the investment to build a 450mm fab easily exceeds the 10 billion dollar mark, this move is regarded as risky and, for this reason, reserved to only the very largest enterprises. In the past, this perspective divided the European industry into two camps – the "More Moore" group that advocates taking on the 450mm challenge, and the "More than Moore" group which shunned this risky investment and preferred to rely on application-oriented differentiation instead.

At the event SEMI Europe, an industry association embracing enterprises that represent the entire value chain and organizer of the ISS Europe, set up a high-ranking panel discussion on options and choices of a single European semiconductor strategy. The panel proved that entrepreneurial spirit is well alive among Europe’s chipmakers, technology suppliers and researchers.

Time is ripe to close the ranks and take on the challenges, as the speakers in the panel pointed out. Judged on the basis of its expertise and abilities, the European semiconductor and equipment industry has remarkable strengths, the experts said unanimously.

"We have to think in European terms," said Luc Van den hove, CEO of the Belgian research center Imec. "Talking in a common voice allows the European Commission to act and support this industry".

Jean-Marc Chery, Chief Manufacturing & Technology Officer of chipmaker STMicroelectronics, reminded that a holistic approach is necessary. "We have to push the full value chain cooperatively," he said.

The panel participants recognized that the European semiconductor industry possesses the necessary expertise. So far, the willingness to jointly face these challenges has been affected adversely by the macroeconomic environment and the Euro crisis, which discouraged far-reaching strategic decisions. The members of the European Commission that recently signalized understanding the needs of the semiconductor industry’s vital role for the high-tech location Europe, certainly contributed to the optimism in the industry.

"We have all the knowledge, the materials and the equipment," said Rob Hartman, Director Strategic Program for leading equipment manufacturer ASML, during the panel. "Let’s do it in the EU."

European Commissioner Neelie Kroes’ idea of creating an "Airbus for chips," a European initiative for the semiconductor industry comparable to the initiative that once led to the launch of the Airbus in the aviation industry, was strongly hailed by the panel.

"An Airbus for chips could be a very powerful tool," Van der hove said. "It does not need to be a single company, it also can be a framework of companies," added Laurent Malier, CEO of French research centre CEA-LETI.

The main concern of the industry is the slow decision process of the European institutions due to a complex political approval process inside of the European Union, the participants agreed. This industry is moving fast and so the decisions have to be taken fast, too. The strong Euro and the lack of qualified labor are further regarded as potential stumbling blocks for the technological progress and the business competitiveness.

At the panel the European Commission signalized its support for the industry as well.

“If policy instruments would be combined on EU and national levels, a critical mass of support for R&D for both More than Moore and More Moore could be achieved,” said Khalil Rouhana, Director Components & Systems at the European Commission.

Tech spending still going strongIT spending remained broadly strong throughout a difficult end to 2012, as business confidence waned in the shadow of the "fiscal cliff,” economic growth declined in much of Europe, and economies in Asia/Pacific struggled to cope with reduced exports, according to the latest International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Black Book. In spite of these headwinds, worldwide IT spending recorded annual growth of 5.9% in 2012 in constant currency terms, keeping pace with the 5.8% growth recorded in 2011. Total IT spending on hardware, software and IT services reached $2 trillion, while ICT spending (including telecom services) increased by 4.8% to $3.6 trillion.

Last year was difficult for U.S.-based IT suppliers, however, which were adversely affected by the strength of the dollar throughout most of the year. In U.S.-dollar terms, worldwide IT spending grew by just 3.3%. This marked a significant slowdown from the U.S. dollar growth rate of 9.5% recorded in 2011. In 2013, IT spending is expected to increase by 5.5% as businesses and consumers continue to invest in mobile devices, storage, networks, and software applications.

While overall IT spending remained stable, 2012 was another difficult year for the PC industry, which recorded a 2% decline in annual revenues. Revenue declines were also recorded in servers, PC monitors, and feature phones as cannibalization from tablets and smartphones continued to reshape the IT industry landscape. For the first time, spending on smartphones in 2012 exceeded PCs, reaching almost $300 billion, while PC spending declined to $233 billion.

"Cannibalization is happening across the industry," said Stephen Minton, Vice President in IDC’s Global Technology & Industry Research Organization. "Smartphones have taken over from feature phones, tablet adoption is impacting PC spending, and the Cloud is affecting the traditional software, services and infrastructure markets. IT spending is still growing organically, but not at the same pace as prior to the financial crisis. Businesses are adopting IT solutions such as virtualization, automation, and SaaS as a means to reduce the annual increases in their overall IT spending at a time when economic uncertainty remains high."

The global economy has been volatile through the past 12 months, and this sense of uncertainty persisted into the first quarter of 2013. IDC expects the U.S. economy to stabilize in the second half of the year, driving IT spending growth of 5.5%. 2013 will be another tough year for Europe, however, where tech spending is expected to increase by just 2% as the Eurozone and UK struggle to shrug off the lingering debt crisis. Excluding mobile devices, growth in Europe will be less than 1%. Japan has meanwhile lost most of the post-reconstruction momentum that drove IT spending to increase by 4% in 2012, and will record IT growth of 0% this year.

"This will be another tough year for mature economies," added Minton. "Weakness in Europe, as governments continue to impose austerity measures with a direct and indirect impact on IT spending, has also damaged the export-dependent Japanese economy. The U.S. should perform better, as long as politicians continue to reach 11th-hour deals to avert an economic crisis, and the PC market in the U.S. will at least stabilize after two successive years of major declines."

Emerging markets have also been volatile in the past 12 months, with weaker economic growth in Brazil, India, and China, creating uncertainty for IT vendors. Economic projections for 2013 are generally positive, however, and IDC believes that the government in China has enough ammunition to ensure an improvement in overall growth. With penetration rates still relatively low in many segments and industrial sectors within the BRICs and other key emerging markets, a stable economic outlook will translate into improving IT spending trends.

"We’re more confident about China than we were in the middle of 2012, when PC shipments were slowing and there was a sense that the economy had slowed down more quickly than the government had planned," said Minton. "Underlying IT demand remained strong, despite the volatile capital spending patterns that mainly affected PCs, and total IT spending in China still increased by 16% last year, which was only slightly down compared to 17% growth in 2011. We expect more of the same in 2013, even in spite of the inevitable slowdown in some emerging technology adoption rates as those markets gradually mature."

The Touch Panel Transparent Conductive Film, or TCF, market was reported $956 million in 2012. Markets are anticipated to reach $4.8 billion by 2019. Indium tin oxide (ITO) is an entrenched technology for displays manufacturing. ITO has been the transparent conductive film technology for touch screens, but ReportsNReports says newer technology will erode ITO and provide improved functionality at lower prices.

Transparent conductive film enables features of smart phones and electronics applications, devices which are evolving in response in part to the characteristics of the transparent conductive film that is used in the user interface.

The advantage of transparent conductive film is that a very thin layer of material as a coating on a surface can provide touch screen capability. Transparent conductive film supports electronic device usability, and factors that influence commercial success in the wireless device and services market relate to usability above all. Development of an integrated hardware, software and service platform to support multiple wireless network standards is an essential aspect of market participation.

ReportsNReports noted that the key players in the transparent conductive film markets are mainly leveraging the expanding market opportunities related to mobile communication and media devices of smart phones and tablets. Transparent conductive film provides the base for device navigation by recognizing the presence of a finger as it moves across a screen. That navigation supports transmission of digital data into and out of the smart phone. The transparent conductive film markets are highly competitive, and the competition is expected to intensify significantly as new technologies evolve.

The principal competitive factors of the transparent conductive film market include price, product features, relative price/performance, product quality and reliability, design innovation, marketing and distribution capability, service and support, and corporate reputation. Indium tin oxide (ITO) has been the prevailing transparent conductive film used in touch screen applications, and it requires an expensive and cumbersome sputtering deposition process. The price of indium is increasing rapidly and the film is rigid. As a result, there is demand for more flexible film in the market.

Photo by gletham GIS, Social, Mobile Tech via flickr

ISSCC, the International Solid-State Circuits Conference, is being held on February 17-21, 2013, at the San Francisco Marriott Marquis Hotel. This year, in honor of the conference’s 60th anniversary, we have assembled highlights of the topics and trends that are being discussed. Click through to learn more about the trends and challenges facing the solid-state integrated circuits industry in 2013.

David Su, subcommittee chair of ISSCC 2013, wrote on data rates of modern wireless standards, which are increasing rapidly, as is shown in the table above. The data rate has increased 100x over in the last decade and another 10x is projected in the next five years. Read more.

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