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July 10, 2012 — Semiconductor equipment sales will reach $42.4 billion in 2012, according to the mid-year edition of the SEMI Capital Equipment Forecast, released at SEMICON West 2012.

Driven by consumer demand for tablets, smartphones, and other mobile devices, chipmakers continue to purchase manufacturing technology equipment, but at a slightly lesser rate than in 2011. The forecast indicates that, following a 9% capex increase in 2011, semiconductor makers are spending 2.6% less in 2012, although 2012 will be the fourth highest spending year in history, following 2000, 2007, and 2011. The industry is “absorbing new capacity,” said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. 2012 is part of a “multi-year market expansion,” he added, with 2013 spending to accelerate to $46+ billion.

In wafer processing equipment, the industry will spend $33.0 billion in 2012, the second highest spending year ever for this segment (the best was 2011), falling 3.8% year-over-year (Y/Y). Wafer processing equipment is the largest product segment by dollar value

The market for test equipment ($3.8 billion) and assembly & packaging equipment ($3.4 billion) will remain essentially flat (up 0.2% and 0.9%, respectively, Y/Y).

Growth is forecasted in 2 regions in 2012; Korea and Taiwan will become the largest two markets for equipment spending. 

In 2013, Korea and North America are expected to claim the top spots, with Taiwan slipping to third place in terms of equipment spending.

Tables. SEMI’s market size forecast in billions of US dollars and percentage growth over the prior year. SOURCE: 2012 SEMI Mid-Year Consensus Forecast.

SEMI is a global industry association serving the nano- and microelectronics manufacturing supply chains. For more information, visit www.semi.org or go straight to www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo.

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July 10, 2012 — Michael A. Fury, Ph.D., reports from the pre-opening day (July 9) of SEMICON West at the Moscone Center in San Francisco, CA. The first day hosts SEMI’s press conference on semiconductor revenues and the SEMI/Gartner Market Symposium.

The day before the official opening of SEMICON West 2012 started as always with the SEMI press conference. Semiconductor revenue forecasts for 2012 range from 0.4% to 8.6% growth for the next 6 months, thus providing support for the scenario of your choice. The equipment forecast for 2012 is $42.4B, down 2.6% from 2011; 2013 is forecast to be back up to $46.7B. The current rank order for equipment spending by region is S. Korea, Taiwan, US, Japan, Europe, China and ROW. Fab and packaging materials are forecast to be $49.3B for 2012, up 2.9% over 2011 with another 4.1% growth expected for 2013. Since 2009, spending on packaging materials has been within 6% of the spending on fab materials. SEMI states that the 450mm transition will occur, with R&D cost estimates varying widely from $8B to $40B, depending on how efficiently the conversion is executed. Advance registration for this 42nd SEMICON West of over 31,000 attendees is up slightly over 2011.

The remainder of the day was devoted to the SEMI/Gartner Market Symposium, another annual event that provides some high level insight into who is doing what to whom, and why, and at what cost in the realm of electronics manufacturing. Intel’s Senior Fellow Mark Bohr provided his perspectives on what is needed to maintain silicon technology leadership for the mobility era. Trigate FinFET devices are fully depleted, providing a steeper sub-threshold slope of ~70mV/decade compared to ~100mV/decade for the best planar devices. A family of devices is being based on the tri-gate concept, with single fins for low-power or low-performance applications and up to six fins in a single device for high-performance needs. The 22nm tri-gate operates 37% faster and 0.2V lower than the previous 32nm planar technology. Interconnects for 22nm range in pitch from 80nm to 360nm for M1-M8, with top metal M9 at 14µm. The 80nm pitch is used repeatedly as it is the tightest pitch that can be manufactured with single step patterning. The 22nm Ivy Bridge processor comprises 4 cores with integrated graphics and houses 1.4 billion transistors in 16mm2. As to the oft-foretold end of Moore’s Law, Intel presently has teams working on 10nm and 7nm technologies, so the researchers in Hillsboro have not drunk the Kool-Aid of doubt.

Figure 1. Intel transistors.

Bob Johnson, Gartner’s VP of Semiconductor Manufacturing, continued the theme with an overview of semiconductor equipment investment for a mobile world. The market driver assumptions include 2012 growth rates of 4.9% for PCs, 6.5% for mobile phones, 7.6% for NAND, and a whopping 78% for media tablets. Over the next several years, 76% of the industry growth will be driven by solid state drives, media tablets, smart phones and mobile PCs. The 2016 projection of 1.4B smart phones per year is the equivalent of 1/7 of the world population, truly a staggering number. The top 5 fab capital spenders now account for 64% of the total industry spending on equipment; the top 10 extend that to only 76%. The current 5-year CAGR for capital spending is 0.6%. NAND spending surpassed DRAM in 2011, and will continue to lead for the foreseeable future. Allocation of industry R&D funding for 450mm is expected to be 50% in 2013 and 75% by 2016.

Figure 2. Gartner’s forecast for mobile semiconductors.

Dan Tracy of SEMI’s industry research & statistics program provided their mid-year update on the equipment and materials outlook. The equipment highlights were cited above. Silicon wafer shipments for 2013 are forecast to be up 7%, with all other sizes flat or declining. Photoresist for 193nm makes up ~45% of the total market, and is expected to grow 10.3% in 2013 to $610M. On a 2011 $24.2B base, wafer fab materials overall are projected to grow 3.4% in 2012 and 5.0% in 2013. The lead news (pun shamelessly intended) for packaging materials is the shift from gold to copper for wire bonding. Volumes are increasing even as revenue declines, reflecting the lower cost of copper. On a 2011 $23.6B base, packaging materials are forecast to grow 2.4% in 2012 and 3.2% in 2013. Another hot area is underfill materials, with a current $220M market expected to grow to $300M by 2015. TSV is a ~$7M materials market today, but is expected to grow dramatically to $450M by 2016, about half of which will be for the temporary bonding adhesives needed for wafer handling.

Figure 3. SEMI’s wafer fab materials forecast.

Ken Dulaney, VP & Distinguished Analyst at Gartner, continued the mobile device theme with perspectives on pocket power: mobile devices migrating to hand held size. At the other extreme, picture the replacement of conference room white boards with 80” touch screens. Several major airlines have placed two tablet computers in every cockpit to replace about 40 pounds of mandated safety procedure documentation. Android has risen rapidly to dominance in mobile operating systems, with the Windows phone system the only credible threat on the horizon. Unlike Apple, Microsoft and Intel, Google continues to resist engaging in TV advertising to build brand identification with Android and customer loyalty, and thus may have an Achilles heel. Apple mobile products represent 9% of the volume but 75% of the profits. Corporate users are driving their IT departments toward replacing Blackberry with iPhone, but this requires an ‘Apple-way or the highway’ commitment for the corporate enterprise system. Enterprise clients are expected to largely skip Windows 8 because the conversion to Win7 was so recent, many custom applications are still being ported to Win7, and Windows 9 is already anticipated for 2014.

Figure 4. Gartner’s forecast for mobile OS.

Christian Dieseldorff of SEMI’s market research program brought us up to date on the world fab forecast for 2012-2013 and the near-term trends for fab spending and capacity. Fabs that are increasing capital spending in 2012 are Intel, Samsung, TSMC, Hynix and UMC. Despite hard economic times, Japan continues to host the greatest number of fabs in the world, and will remain in the lead through 2017. However, only Taiwan and China are expected to have a significant increase in the number of fabs over this period, with other regions closing fabs. In 2000, the top 5 IDMs accounted for 12% of the global installed capacity, excluding discretes; in 2013, they will be 54%. In contrast, the top 4 foundries moved from 43% to 57% over the same period.

Figure 5. SEMI’s fab equipment spending predictions.
Figure 6. SEMI’s capacity trends data.

Samuel Wang, Research Director at Gartner, concluded the event with a presentation on the implications of mobile device proliferation for foundries. Foundry revenue will grow 9.9% in 2012 to $32.7B, fueled in part by a tight supply of 40nm and a shortage of 28nm devices. And yet, 40nm is already expected to peak and begin its decline in 2013. In effect, looking forward, 28nm and 20nm have become mainstream, displacing 32nm and 40nm. In the next 5 years, 70% of the foundry revenue growth will be attributable to mobile devices. The combination of device sales projections and wafer production carries the implication that 300mm wafers are being produced with an average defect density of 0.15/in2. The large die size for leading 32/28nm mobile processors is a significant contributor to the current ship shortage in these technologies; smaller chips yield better. Given their manufacturing maturity, historic precedence says that these should be operating at a defect density of 0.10/in2.

Figure 7. Gartner’s estimation of revenue by nodes.

Michael A. Fury is a contributing blogger for Solid State Technology and director and senior technology analyst, Techcet Group.

Check out Solid State Technology’s coverage of SEMICON West 2012!

July 9, 2012 — Ushio Inc. (TOKYO:6925) launched its thinnest ultraviolet (UV) irradiance meter "UIT-q365 (UIT-Theta365)." The meter is 4.9mm thick, used to keep major UV processes within spec. It can be used during optical film manufacturing for flexible electronics, as well as during adhesion of precision optical parts.

The meter is launching at SEMICON West 2012. USHIO will also demonstrate its dedicated Android application “BladeNavi,” used for measurement, monitoring, and analysis of UV irradiance, which is set to launch in October 2012.

More SEMICON West product previews: Metrology, inspection, and process control products, Lithography products, packaging products, Wafer processing and handling products

The UIT-q365’s thin unibody design incorporates a meter, sensor, and secondary battery to allow measurement of UV irradiance in hard-to-reach locations or in-situ setups. Measurements are reportedly highly accurate and repetitive measurement even for scattered continuous light. With a rechargeable battery, re-use is unlimited.

The product operates in- or off-line. In off-line data-logging mode, it can be placed on a film running on a production line to log measured data, then removed from the line for processing measured data. In on-line mode, it provides real-time measurement of irradiance of a spot UV light. With “BladeNavi” the tool can be operated with one hand.

Visit USHIO at SEMICON WEST, July 10-12 in San Francisco at the Moscone Center, South Hall, Booth 2544.

USHIO INC. handles a variety of light sources for a broad range of industrial applications, including high-brightness discharge lamps for cinema projectors and data projectors as well as halogen lamps for general lighting and OA equipment and UV irradiance meters. It also manufactures and markets products incorporating its own light sources, such as optical systems for manufacturing FPDs and other electronic components and devices as well as imaging equipment led by digital cinema projectors. Visit www.ushio.co.jp/en.

Check out Solid State Technology’s coverage of SEMICON West 2012!

July 8, 2012 — Don’t fill up your exhibit hall meetings list just yet. Following are some of the new and flagship products that will appear this week at SEMICON West, July 10-12 in the Moscone Center of San Francisco, CA.

More SEMICON West product previews:

Metrology, inspection, and process control products

Lithography products

Semiconductor packaging products

Wafer processing and handling products

Gas distribution equipment and other products

Air Liquide will highlight several product lines at SEMICON West and Intersolar North America, including ALOHA, dedicated to the development, manufacturing, and marketing of advanced precursors for ALD and CVD applications. Other features at the booth will be the company’s SaFlow specialty gas distribution equipment for solar and nanotechnology applications; BBr3 (Boron Tribromide) alternative boron dopant source for solar; Total Gas and Chemical Management services for fabs; Balazs NanoAnalysis clean manufacturing solutions and analytical services for advancing high-technology products through materials characterization and contamination reduction; and the next-generation Flexible Factory Control System (FFCS). Air Liquide, South Hall, Booth 1007.

 

Electrostatic discharge meter

TREK INC. is debuting the Model 511 Hand-Held Field Meter, an economical and reliable way to monitor electrostatic fields for the semiconductor, photovoltaic/solar and electronics manufacturing industries. Model 511 is a portable, chopper-stabilized, non-contacting electrostatic field meter designed for testing and auditing of electrostatic fields. An optional charge plate accessory enables Model 511 to be used for the balancing and testing of ionization blowers and devices. The unit can also be used for surface voltage measurements of photoconductors or dielectric surfaces and for measurement of electrostatic potentials on film, polymers, and paper. The unit has a switch-selectable measurement range of either ±2 kV per inch or ±20 kV per inch. Measurement accuracy is better than 5% of reading. It operates in ionized or non-ionized environments. Additional features include an easy-to-read LED display, a hold-switch that preserves a reading on the display until released, and a push-button ‘auto-zero’ feature that removes any offset voltage. TREK INC., South Hall, Booth 1123.

 

Filtration and purification products for leading-edge fabs

Pall Corporation (NYSE: PLL) will unveil advanced filtration and purification products targeting 22nm and smaller-node semiconductor fabs. The products are used in chemical, gas, photolithography, ultrapure water and CMP applications. The 10nm Ultipleat SP DR G2 filter uses a proprietary, highly asymmetrical membrane to remove particles down to 10nm in size. The larger-diameter G2 filter provides 45% more liquid flow at the same differential pressure as the current standard filter. It can be implemented for critical, ambient, wet chemical surface preparation processes. The all PFA disposable UltiKleen G3 HiT KC assembly will also debut, featuring a Pall Excellar ER filter cartridge with a uniquely modified, 15nm-rated PTFE membrane that remains wet in critical aqueous chemicals. The UltiKleen G3 HiT KC Assembly’s design improves fluid dynamics and enables efficient removal under new, higher-temperature SPM processes. The new filter has been shown to reduce sub 20-nm particles by more than 25% in 120°C sulfuric acid filtration compared to previous designs. Pall will showcase the new Profile Nano filter developed to classify both ceria and low solids colloidal silica slurries typically used in advanced CMP processes, such as shallow trench isolation (STI) and barrier copper. The Profile Nano filter contains extremely fine fibers that improve particle removal efficiency to better than 99% at 200nm. Pall will introduce the IonKleen CAF purifier/ filter for critical point-of-use applications in ultrapure water. It can reduce trace metal ions to < 1 part per trillion (ppt) at challenge levels up to 10 ppb and water flow rates up to 20 liters per minute. In addition to the active polyethylene membrane, the large area, G2 style cartridge contains a highly efficient filter for removing 10nm and greater particles. Pall Corporation (NYSE: PLL), South Hall, Booth 1519.

 

Filtration for advanced patterning processes

Pall will introduce two products for advanced patterning applications: the 2nm PE-Kleen filter with an extremely tight membrane to prevent defects in 14nm semiconductor patterning, and the Nylon Extension filter designed to increase photoresist contact time within the nylon 6,6 membrane. The 2nm PE-Kleen filter is constructed of ultra-high-purity, high-density polyethylene. The Nylon Extension filter increases contact time to enhance nylon 6,6 adsorption. The removal of insoluble polymer components by adsorption helps reduce bridge type defects. The new 2nm PE-Kleen and Nylon Extension filters are available in several different cartridge and capsule configurations, including the quick-disconnect PhotoKleen EZD-3X assembly. Pall Corporation (NYSE: PLL), South Hall, Booth 1519.

 

Gas purification and filtration products

Pall will also uncrate products for use in ultra-high-purity gas applications. The Gaskleen II EL purifier is a compact purifier assembly suitable for intermittent process flow rates up to 50 standard liters per minutes (slpm). The assembly can be filled with any of Pall’s AresKleen purification materials to remove molecular contaminants such as moisture, oxygen, carbon dioxide and hydrocarbons to levels below 1 part per billion (ppb) from process gases. The purifier also contains an integral filter that removes particles ≥3nm with a >9 log efficiency. ChamberKleen diffusers will launch with NW40 and NW50 flanges for venting of load lock or other vacuum chambers where large volumes of gas need to flow in a short time. The assembly contains a high-flow filter pack capable of removing particles ≥3nm in size. It operates at differential pressures of up to 0.72 MPa (105 psid) to enable higher inlet pressures and faster chamber filling times. Pall Corporation (NYSE: PLL), South Hall, Booth 1519.

 

Wafer handling

CHAD Industries will demonstrate automated wafer handling of electrostatic wafers carriers with automated SMIF pod delivery, exhibiting the WaferMate300-2 wafer handling workcell running WaferWare software. The workcell will be configured with both a 300mm FOUP loadport and 200mm SMIF-EZ loadport. It can automate handling of standard and nonstandard wafers. The SMIF-EZ loadport will be populated with 200mm electrostatic carrier wafers from CHAD’s Technology partner Beam Services. The carriers will have a smaller-diameter wafer mounted to them to demonstrate standard wafer handling of a challenging size. CHAD will also be demonstrating Adept Technology’s autonomous indoor vehicle (AIV) for automated SMIF pod delivery. The transporter is a safe autonomous indoor vehicle for delivering 200mm, 150mm, and reticle SMIF Pods within semiconductor fabs with no additional infrastructure required. It reduces vibration and handling in wafer delivery. CHAD Industries, North Hall, Booth 6274.

 

Jetting system and new cartridge

Nordson ASYMTEK will demonstrate its new NexJet jetting system with the one-piece Genius Jet Cartridge. As simple as an ink jet printer cartridge, Genius is easily removed and replaced in seconds without tools. The Genius Jet Cartridge dispenses up to 50 million cycles before a replacement is necessary, with memory to store and communicate usage data. This intelligence enables quality dispensing and high yields. The advanced design of the NexJet system includes new software that widens the process window to ensure stable and repeatable results for high-yield production and broadens the range of jettable fluids and applications. The NexJet System includes new precision software control of the jetting process, enabling successful results with both low- and high-viscosity fluids, and accommodates a broad range of fluids for applications such as flip chip underfill, chip scale package, ball grid array, package-on-package underfill, precise coating, and adhesive dispensing. Each NexJet System ships with two Genius Jet Cartridges and a specially designed Genius Jet Cartridge Cleaning Tool. The NexJet system is available as an upgrade for Nordson ASYMTEK’s Spectrum, Axiom, and DispenseMate Series platforms, and can accommodate six reservoir sizes: 3cc, 5cc, 10cc, 30cc, 2.5 oz, and 6 oz. The Genius Jet Cartridge comes in 4 sizes. Nordson ASYMTEK, North Hall, Booth 6071.

 

Printing tool & epoxy

Optomec will demonstrate several devices with 3D printed electronics fabricated with its Aerosol Jet tool: an automotive tank with fill level sensor and control circuitry (courtesy of Neotech Services MTP); a multi-chip package (MCP) with fine line conformal interconnects; and aircraft components with printed antennae, sensors, and power distribution circuitry. Optomec will also showcase a new conductive epoxy developed by Resin Design specifically for use with the Aerosol Jet printing process and its fine-feature capabilities. Together, this novel material and the Aerosol Jet system can be used to produce high-conductivity adhesive features for surface mount and high-stress interconnect applications. Aerosol Jet technology can print a wide variety of electronic materials directly onto a wide variety on non-planar surfaces. The tool produces a high-velocity material mist stream, printing interconnects for vertically stacked dies, without adjustment to Z-height positioning. The system can print fine features to <10µm and wide features >1cm. Multiple print heads can be independently controlled by the Aerosol Jet system and each print head can have multiple nozzles providing a high degree of system scalability to meet application throughput requirements. Optomec, North Hall, Booth 6665.

 

Active piezoelectric vibration cancellation system

TMC’s STACIS 2100 active piezoelectric vibration cancellation system is the industry standard solution for the most sensitive instruments in noisy environments. Primarily designed to isolate precision microlithography, metrology, and inspection equipment in advanced semiconductor factories, STACIS is hundreds of times stiffer than air isolators and suffers from none of their limitations. There is no soft suspension and, unlike active air systems, STACIS can be “stacked” (placed beneath a tool with an internal active air isolation system). STACIS employs advanced inertial vibration sensors and piezoelectric actuators to cancel vibration by sensing floor vibration, then expanding and contracting the actuators to filter out floor motion. With STACIS, precision tools can be located in noisy environments and still meet the tool manufacturer’s floor vibration criteria. TMC, a unit of AMETEK Ultra Precision Technologies, South Hall, Booth 2122.

Check out Solid State Technology’s coverage of SEMICON West 2012!

July 7, 2012 — With Micron Technology Inc. (Nasdaq:MU) acquiring bankrupt DRAM maker Elpida Memory Inc.’s assets for 200 billion Yen (approximately US$2.5 billion), several analysts are looking at the move and how it affects the DRAM manufacturing landscape, as well as the Flash memory sector.

Micron will pay $2.5 billion for Micron and its 65% stake in Rexchip, and put up an additional $334 million for Powerchip Technology Corporation’s 24% stake in Rexchip. The deal should close in H1 2013. Get the specifics of the Micron/Elpida deal here.

Micron says the additional assets will make it the "leading pure-play memory manufacturer." Barclays Capital notes that the assets approximately double Micron’s wafer capacity. Micron expects to grow to 21% market share in memory semiconductors, overtaking Hynix (16%) and drawing closer to #1 Samsung (34%), estimates Objective Analysis’ Jim Handy and Lane Mason. Micron stresses that the company will not compete with its customers, unlike Samsung. IHS iSuppli analysts see the Micron’s share growing to more like 24.8%, and places Samsung at 40.8%, and Hynix at 24.2%.

The deal was appealing to DRAM market watchers, who hoped that the combination of Micron and Elpida would create an oligopoly, keeping prices stable, but the analysts at Objective Analysis disagree. While the list of DRAM makers grows ever shorter, the commodity nature of the market will continue as before, with no changes, says Objective Analysis. “There is no reason that a capital-intensive commodity that is supplied by more than one vendor should not undergo important price collapses any time there is an oversupply, since suppliers are highly motivated to run production capacity at its maximum output, and this forces them to lower prices to be able to find markets for overproduced chips,” Objective Analysis wrote about the deal. IHS iSuppli countered that DRAM pricing has become markedly less volatile since Elpida’s February bankruptcy announcement, “deviating from long-term trends in statistically significant ways.” A weighted average of DRAM spot prices hovered in a narrow window from Elpida’s announcement through late May, changing 8 points, as opposed to a sample 12-week period in which it changed 37 points. However, “the big question remains whether normal volatility will return once some clarity emerges on the future of Elpida,” said Dee Nguyen, memory analyst at IHS, in advance of Micron’s takeover. Barclays forecast that Micron will take some commodity DRAM capacity off-line while it rebalances its product portfolio.

Table. The IHS iSuppli Momentum Indicator stayed at the 50% level since the bankruptcy announcement, an indication of neutrality with no upward or downward momentum. SOURCE: IHS iSuppli June 2012.

 

12/5/2011

2/20/2012

3/5/2012

5/21/2012

DRAM price index

180

216

235

243

Momentum indicator (%)

50

50

51

50

 

Objective Analysis expects Elpida’s fabs will continue producing DRAM chips, with Micron focusing on NAND Flash scale up at its IMFS fab in Singapore. Micron will output capital expenditures (capex) to upgrade Elpida fabs, though the cost to Micron could be offset with lower internal capex spending, Barclays said.

“DRAM consolidation has finally arrived,” wrote the analysts at Barclays Capital, who see the deal as an even better win for Micron than they expected. To achieve 16% memory market share, MU will focus on integrating Elpida’s mobile DRAM technology, scaling up its PC DRAM production with Elpida’s lines, broadening sales coverage, and exploiting the technology synergies with its acquisition. Objective Analysis sees the combined company cornering a quarter of the mobile DRAM sector, edging out Hynix for second behind Samsung, which controls about half the sector. Combined, Micron and Elpida have a dominant share of Apple’s iPhone mobile DRAM orders. The addition of significant mobile DRAM capacity was heralded by each analyst reporting here.

Elpida’s DRAM process technology has much to offer Micron, Objective Analysis notes. Unfortunately, Micron “has not been efficient” at bringing past acquisitions into its technological roadmap. Micron acquired Toshiba’s DRAM plants in Manassas, VA in 2002, ultimately shutting down the 200mm Toshiba line and converted everything to Micron’s own process on 300mm wafers before gaining traction. The later acquisition of Inotera from Qimonda in 2008 was plagued by low yields and output for an extended period that unfortunately coincided with an upturn in DRAMs, costing Micron perhaps $500 million in profits. IHS expects a very quick transition and integration at Micron once the deal officially closes, reported Mike Howard, senior principal analyst for DRAM & memory research at IHS.

What to look for at Elpida? Fresh faces in upper management, Objective Analysis suspects, and an end to the DRAM maker’s purely Japanese culture. The deal also frees Elpida from a financial burden, as its creditors will be absorbing significant losses; more than half of Elpida’s debt will not be repaid. The deal sounds a closing note for Japan’s DRAM leadership and indeed participation in the memory sector, which began in the late 1980s. Elpida was “the last important Japanese DRAM provider,” noted Objective Analysis. However, there is “still a very large base of technical capability and intellectual property in Japan, for DRAM and memory design, and process development,” the analysts note, if Micron can take advantage of this material. The majority of the jobs at Elpida will be preserved.

July 6, 2012 — “MEMS will continue to see steady, sustainable, double-digit growth for the next 6 years, with 20% compound average annual growth (CAGR) in units and 13% growth in revenues, to become a $21 billion market by 2017,” said Laurent Robin, Activity Leader, Inertial MEMS Devices & Technologies at Yole Développement, which published its “Status of the MEMS Industry” report.

Figure. MEMS forecast through 2017. SOURCE: Yole.

Almost all micro electro mechanical systems (MEMS) players had a growth in sales in 2011 compared to 2010. Companies involved in inertial sensors and microphones are growing the most. New MEMS devices will emerge in the forecast period, with some experiencing >90% CAGR.

Yole expects continued strong growth in motion sensing and microfluidics, segments of the MEMS market that will grow to 25% (motion sensing accelerometers, gyroscopes, magnetometers and combos) and 23% (microfluidics) of the total MEMS arena in 2017.

Yole broke out combo sensors as a separate category in its market data and forecasts this year. The market for discrete inertial sensors is beginning to decline, but the growth for inertial combo solutions will be huge. Combo sensors will grow from <$100 million today to a $1.7 billion opportunity by 2017.

The MEMS market is still very fragmented, with limited high-volume MEMS applications. New MEMS devices and emerging-MEMS devices are hitting markets or nearing completion. Some of them have the possibility to ramp up to large volumes quickly: especially those that can be applied to mobile devices (RF MEMS switches, oscillators, auto-focus MEMS, etc). New sensors — humidity, touchscreen — and actuators — switches, energy harvesting — are driving future growth. Existing sensors are also expanding into new market spaces, sometimes using new types of integration (e.g. pressure sensors).

The report includes case studies on the STMicroeletronics (ST) and Bosch business models, as STMicroeletronics is becoming the dominant player in MEMS. ST has been able to diversify its MEMS offer with a wide range of MEMS devices and 90% of its IDM business done with 2 devices only (accelerometers, gyroscopes). It anticipated the growth with early investment in high-volume manufacturing infrastructure with an 8” wafer production line and diverse partnerships to speed time to market and enlarge its product offering. Bosch benefits from its captive fab infrastructure primarily dedicated to automotive applications, which helps Bosch to decrease prices.

In 2011, both the number and values of MEMS mergers and acquisitions (M&A) boomed. A total of $1.7B MEMS acquisition value was realized in 2011. Early-stage MEMS companies are acquired at high prices — SensorDynamics, Pixtronics — because there are a limited number of private candidates with solid technology. Large companies are looking to enter the attractive MEMS market, placing high value on these targets.

Companies cited in the report:

AAC, AGILTRON, AICHI MI, AKM, ALPS, ALTIS, AMKOR, ANALOG DEVICES, APPLE, ASE, ASIA PACIFIC MICROSYSTEMS, ASMC, AUDIOPIXELS, AVAGO TECHNOLOGIES, BAE, BLUECHIIP, BOEHRINGER INGELHEIM MICROPARTS, BSE, BTENDO, CANON, CAVENDISH KINETICS, CEA LETI, COLIBRYS, DEBIOTECH, DELFMEMS, DENSO, DISCERA, DNP, DRS, ENDVCO, EPCOS, EXCELITAS, FAUN INFRARED, FLIR SYSTEMS, FORMFACTOR, FOXCONN, FREESCALE SEMICONDUCTOR, FUJITSU, GE SENSING, GETTOP, GLADIATOR TECHNOLOGIES, GLOBAL FOUNDRIES, GOERTEK, GOODRICH-AIS, HEWLETT PACKARD, HITACHI, HONEYWELL, HOSIDEN, IDT, IMEC, IMT, INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES…

The 2012 edition of “Status of the MEMS Industry” includes MEMS device markets, key players strategies, key industry changes and trends and MEMS financial analysis. It also includes major MEMS manufacturing evolutions as well as an update on the “emerging” MEMS devices markets.

The Status of the MEMS industry report is written by Eric Mounier, PhD, co-founder and market analyst for MEMS, equipment and material, at Yole Développement and Laurent Robin, head of MEMS & Sensors market research at Yole Développement.

Yole Développement is a group of companies providing market research, technology analysis, strategy consulting, media in addition to finance services. Learn more at www.yole.fr.

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July 5, 2012 — Semico Research has just released an update to its 2012 semiconductor industry forecast. Semico’s semiconductor growth forecast has stayed between 8 and 10% over about a year. The latest update holds Semico’s forecast at the bottom of that range: 8.6%.

The economic situation in Europe is inspiring caution at Semico, but the forecasters continue to expect a better H2 2012.

Figure. Semico’s IPI and total worldwide semiconductor sales ($B).

“On the consumption side there are new smartphones, ultraportable PCs, and tablets with enough appeal to keep consumers spending their disposable income. We’re also closely watching the supply side, especially the 28nm ramp,” according to Semico.

Semico’s Jim Feldhan presented at Solid State Technology’s The ConFab 2012 about silicon cycles. Check out information from his talk here:

@ The ConFab: Semiconductor industry experts look to the future

@ The ConFab: How to prevail over silicon cycles

ConFab interview: Semico’s Jim Feldhan on solid-state drives and semiconductor trends

 The Semico IPI report is published monthly and includes the IPI chart and forecast with a detailed analysis of the data and current market trends. The June 2012 IPI report includes a detailed economic analysis of the global economy by examining the situation in Europe, efforts to manage growth in China, and the state of unemployment and consumer spending in the US. Every quarter the IPI Report includes Semico’s detailed semiconductor forecast while the other two months in each quarter are bolstered with topical research articles from Semico’s analysts. The IPI has provided accurate and proven forward-looking predictions on the direction and strength of the semiconductor market twelve months in the future since 1997.

Semico is a semiconductor marketing & consulting research company.

Visit the Semiconductors Channel of Solid State Technology!

July 4, 2012 — EV Group (EVG), wafer bonding and lithography equipment supplier, introduced the EVG 850TB/DB automated temporary bonding and debonding system built on the company’s new XT Frame platform, which has been optimized to support thin-wafer processing for high-volume 3D IC and through silicon via (TSV) manufacturing.

"Temporary bonding and debonding of device wafers to wafer carriers for thin-wafer processing are critical steps to enabling the successful integration and implementation of 3D ICs into high-volume production," stated Dr. Thorsten Matthias, Business Development Director, EV Group.

A combination of hardware and software design enhancements enables double the processing throughput over EVG’s previous-generation platform, to up to 40 stacks per hour. The EVG850TB/DB accommodates up to 9 process modules, doubling the previous maximum processing capability of EVG’s temporary bonding and debonding systems. The new XT Frame-configured EVG850TB/DB is designed for EV Group’s open materials platform approach, which enables the use of a wide range of adhesives from various materials suppliers, including ZoneBOND.

The new XT Frame design enables highly efficient continuous mode operation (zero idle time) capability via an ultra-fast handling system, up to four front opening unified pod (FOUP) load ports, and a material buffer in the form of a local FOUP storage system that holds up to 10 additional FOUPs.  The platform also features an in-line metrology module option to enable real-time monitoring of the bonding/debonding process-enabling maximum yields and helping to lower production costs for thin-wafer processing.

EV Group (EVG) is a world leader in wafer-processing solutions for semiconductor, MEMS and nanotechnology applications. More information is available at www.EVGroup.com.

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July 2, 2012 — Seiko Epson Corporation (TSE: 6724) launched the NX1032XS pick-and-place IC test handler, boasting high throughput for transferring, inspecting, and sorting semiconductors in downstream processes.

The IC test handler transfers finished semiconductors to inspection equipment for electrical, visual and other final performance tests, then sorts them by good/defective or other parameters. It transfers, inspects, and sorts up to 20,000 ICs per hour.

With the ability to transfer 32 semiconductors to inspection equipment at a time, this new model offers twice the capacity of Epson’s previous top model, the NS-8160W. Epson also uses its original Smart Motion Control robot control technology to enable fast movement while maintaining low vibration when transferring semiconductors. In addition, the plate can be heated to enable testing at extreme temperatures of up to 155

This article was published in the DisplaySearch Monitor, June 2012, and authored by David Hsieh.

July 2, 2012 — Liquid crystal display (LCD) panel makers have added new display features — high color gamut, 3D, LED backlight, slim type, ultra-slim bezel, 120 Hz/240 Hz/480 Hz frame rate driving, fast response time, high brightness — with varying success in driving TV demand.

Consumers will not pay a price premium for a new feature that cannot be proven valuable. For example, high color gamut was panned because broadcasting systems regulate the color gamut of content, and preferences for color saturation vary widely.

Instead of “spec up,” more and more end users are looking to “spec down” for budgetary reasons. Lower but acceptable panel brightness now prevails, as it helps to reduce backlight cost. Meanwhile, as analyzed in the May 09, 2012 DisplaySearch Monitor article “Direct LED TV Selling Better than Edge LED TV,” the cost effective direct type LED-backlight LCD TV is doing well in sell-through results. While its form factor is not slim, some end users care more about how an ultra-slim bezel looks from the front.

For all these reasons, LCD TV panel and set makers are wondering what new features will add value for end users and motivate another replacement cycle.

 

Higher resolution: The next added value?

Many people believe that ultra-high 3840 × 2160 definition (UHD or UD), also known as 4K×2K, will be a meaningful value-added feature on next-generation TV displays. 4K×2K has 4x as many pixels as full high definition (FHD, 1920 × 1080), which is the current prevailing resolution for LCD TV panels.

Smart phones and tablet PCs prove that the higher the resolution, the better for end users. These very high definition devices set consumer expectations for televisions. Because LCD TVs are still mainly used for watching rather than interaction or content creation, consumers will perceive very high resolution as a direct benefit to viewing, unlike other new features (such as smart, connected, or 3D TV and LED backlights).

The best quality video is recognized as vivid with no difference between reality and screen, and the higher the resolution, the more vivid the content. 3D technology halves resolution on LCD TVs. On 4K×2K LCD TVs, the impact of the downgrade in resolution when watching 3D content is not as severe. With 4K×2K, even after the 3D downgrade, the resolution is full HD, falling from 3840 × 2160 to 1920 × 1080.

For ultra-large LCD TVs, such as 60-80”, pixels are so big that they are visible in FHD. Therefore 4K×2K is recognized as necessary on very large TVs.

 

4K × 2K manufacturing options

Most panel makers have been working on 55”+ panels for 4K×2K. This is because panel makers target high-end and very large screen markets.

Most panel makers are implementing oxide thin-film transistor (TFT) manufacturing for 4K×2K resolution. Because of the higher electron mobility of oxide, it’s easier to design with a smaller pixel; therefore more pixels can be implanted onto the glass substrate. However, the oxide TFT process requires a 6-8 photomask process, compared to the 4-5 photomask process for amorphous silicon (a-Si) TFT. This will affect fab capacity. Chimei Innolux is planning to use a-Si TFT, rather than oxide TFT. In theory, this is workable and Chimei Innolux can save lots of surplus cost for new photomasks and maintain a better yield rate.

4K×2K LCD TV panels are a big challenge for TFT LCD process yield rate and stability. In the current TFT LCD process, the yield rate and reliability of HD and FHD do differ much. However, when the pixel count quadruples, the yield rate will fall significantly. Meanwhile, the higher resolution means panel transmittance will be reduced because there are more pixels on the substrate. As analyzed in the TFT LCD Process Roadmap Report, there are many new technologies needed for this kind of ultra-high definition:

  • High resolution photo lithography (high resolution patterning)
  • SHA (super high aperture) ratio
  • High mobility backplanes (such as oxide TFT or microcrystalline silicon)
  • Copper (Cu) metallization
  • BM (black matrix) width reduction
  • The EE (electronics engineering) panel design: data/scan driving, input format compatibility, and value-added features including 4K up-conversion, 3D, and local dimming backlight.

 

Panel makers developing 4K×2K

The market outlook for 4K×2K is still unclear due to TV broadcasting bandwidth limitations. Despite this, LCD TV panel makers have developed many 4K×2K panels.

Table. 4K×2K Ultra High Definition LCD TV Panel Development. Source: DisplaySearch China Smart TV & Smart Display Conference.

Maker

Size

Native
Resolution

Panel
Technology

3D

3D Technology

MP (Estimate)

AUO

65”

3840×2160

Oxide TFT

Yes

Lenticular lens

Q2’12
(LGD, Vizio)

55”

3840×2160

A-Si TFT

Yes

Lenticular lens (naked eye)

Now
(Toshiba)

LG Display

84”

3840×2160

Oxide TFT

Yes

FPR (film pattern retarder)

Q1’12-
Q2’12

Samsung

70”

3840×2160

Oxide TFT

 

 

Q2’12

70”

3840×2160

Oxide TFT

Yes

240 Hz, Shutter glass

Q2’12

82”

3840×2160

 

 

 

 

Sharp

64”

4096×2160

 

 

 

EOL

60”

3840×2160

Oxide TFT,
Photo alignment

 

 

2012

Chimei
Innolux

56”

3840×2160

 

No

 

Now
(Medical)

50”

3840×2160

A-Si TFT

120 Hz

 

Q4’12

65”

3840×2160

A-Si TFT

120 Hz

 

Q4’12

AUO is currently the only panel maker that has commercialized a 4K×2K product. The product is a 55” 4K×2K LCD TV with glasses-free 3D and a powerful video driving engine (Toshiba’s REGZA), shown below.

Figure 1. Toshiba’s 55” 4K×2K LCD TV with AUO’s Panel. Source: Toshiba.

There’s also a face tracking feature, which should assist users who choose to video chat in high resolution. It’s said that LGE and Vizio are also interested in launching a 4K×2K LCD TV in the North America market later this year.

Sharp is focusing on 4K×2K and calling it Super Hi-Vision, as analyzed in the May 10, 2012 DisplaySearch Monitor article “Sharp’s Leading TV Panel Technologies.”

4K×2K Ecosystem

The biggest concern for 4K×2K remains the ecosystem. Currently the TV ecosystem relies on the bandwidth of broadcasting and transmission. For content providers, it will be harder to achieve UD as the cost of production, post-production, storage, and data transmission will be very high.

Content is also an issue for 4K×2K TVs. At the DisplaySearch China Smart TV & Smart Display Conference, Chimei Innolux used a slide to illustrate the current 4K×2K ecosystem status (shown below).

Figure 2. 4K×2K Ecosystem status. Source: Chimei Innolux.
  • Camera: Commercial cameras are available, and some are already reaching 8K×4K. These professional cameras are very expensive, but some camera companies such as Sony or JVC plan to introduce a 4K×2K camera for general consumers.
  • Content: For content providers, the high cost of post-production is a concern. A 4K×2K program is estimated to cost 5-6 times more than HD.
  • Broadcasting: NHK and BBC plan to use 4K×2K or even 8K×4K broadcasting for the 2012 Olympics in London. This experiment will explore the challenges to the growth of 4K×2K broadcasting.
  • Coding/De-Coding Standard: H264 seems to be sufficient for 4K×2K. The new generation H265 will be ready by 2013. At the same time, enhancing compression will further reduce the bottleneck of 4K×2K signal transmission. Also, there are some up-scaling solutions to convert HD and FHD signals to 4K, such as QDEO.
  • BD Capacity: With the enormous amount of data for 4K×2K, storage and transmission are big challenges. For storage, dual-layer Blu-ray DVDs can provide 50 GB capacity, and some can even be 200 GB with current compression technology. DVD makers are studying how to increase compression ratio.
  • BD Player: Blu-ray disc players also need to support 4K×2K.
  • HDMI: The HDMI 1.4a standard supports 4K×2K, but HEVC (High Efficient Video Coding) will be better.
  • Bandwidth: ADSL and fiber have achieved 100 Mbps per second. However, it’s still time consuming to transmit 4K×2K data. For example, a 3-hour 4K×2K movie equals 3 terabytes of data, which requires 200 Blu-ray discs.

With all of these opportunities and challenges, the DisplaySearch Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report is forecasting that 4K×2K TV will account for 22% of all 50”+ FPD TVs in 2017.

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