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Historically, the DRAM market has been the most volatile of the major IC product segments. Figure 1 reinforces that statement by showing that the average selling price (ASP) for DRAM has more than doubled in just one year. In fact, the September Update to The McClean Report will discuss IC Insights’ forecast that the 2017 price per bit of DRAM will register a greater than 40% jump, its largest annual increase ever!

Just one year ago, DRAM buyers took full advantage of the oversupply (excess capacity) portion of the cycle and negotiated the lowest price possible with the DRAM manufacturers, regardless of whether the DRAM suppliers lost money on the deal. Now, with tight capacity in the market, DRAM suppliers are getting their “payback” and charging whatever the market will bear, regardless of whether the price increases hurt the users’ electronic system sales or causes it to lose money.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The three remaining major DRAM suppliers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—are each currently enjoying record profits from their memory sales.  For example, Micron reported net income of $1.65 billion on $5.57 billion in sales—a 30% profit margin—in its fiscal 3Q17 (ending in May 2017).  In contrast, the company lost $170 million in its fiscal 4Q16 (ending August 2016).  A similar turnaround has occurred at SK Hynix.  In 2Q17, SK Hynix had a net profit of $2.19 billion on sales of $5.94 billion—a 37% profit margin.  In contrast, SK Hynix had a net profit of only $246 million on $3.39 billion in sales one year ago in 2Q16.

Previously, when DRAM capacity was tight and suppliers were enjoying record profits, one or more suppliers eventually would break rank and begin adding additional DRAM capacity to capture additional sales and marketshare. At that time, there were six, eight, or a dozen DRAM suppliers.  If the supplier was equipping an existing fab shell, new capacity could be brought on-line relatively quickly (i.e., six months).  A greenfield wafer fab—one constructed on a new site—took about two years to reach high-volume production.  Will the same situation play out with only three DRAM suppliers left to serve the market?

Recently, Micron stated that it does not intend to add DRAM wafer capacity in the foreseeable future. Instead, it will attempt to increase its DRAM output by reducing feature size that, in turn, reduces die size.   Eventually, as the company moves down the learning curve, it will be able to ship an increasing number of good die per wafer.  However, SK Hynix, in its 2Q17 financial analyst conference call, stated that it plans to begin adding DRAM wafer capacity since it is not able to meet increasing demand by technology advancements alone.  Samsung has been less forthcoming in its plans for future DRAM production capacity.

Although Samsung and Micron may tolerate SK Hynix’s DRAM expansion efforts for a short while, IC Insights believes that both companies will eventually step up and add DRAM wafer start capacity to protect their marketshare—and DRAM ASPs will begin to fall.  As the old saying goes, it only takes two companies to engage in a price war—and there are still three major DRAM suppliers left.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $33.6 billion for the month of July 2017, an increase of 24.0 percent compared to the July 2016 total of $27.1 billion and 3.1 percent more than the June 2017 total of $32.6 billion. All major regional markets posted both year-to-year and month-to-month increases in July, and the Americas market led the way with growth of 36.1 percent year-to-year and 5.4 percent month-to-month. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“Worldwide semiconductor sales increased on a year-to-year basis for the twelfth consecutive month in July, reflecting impressive and sustained growth for the global semiconductor market,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Sales in July increased throughout every major regional market and semiconductor product category, demonstrating the breadth of the global market’s recent upswing, and the industry is on track for another record sales total in 2017.”

Year-to-year sales increased in the Americas (36.1 percent), China (24.1 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (20.5 percent), Europe (18.9 percent), and Japan (16.7 percent). Month-to-month sales increased in the Americas (5.4 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (2.8 percent), China (2.7 percent), Japan (2.1 percent), and Europe (1.2 percent).

To find out how to purchase the WSTS Subscription Package, which includes comprehensive monthly semiconductor sales data and detailed WSTS Forecasts, please visit http://www.semiconductors.org/industry_statistics/wsts_subscription_package/. For detailed data on the global and U.S. semiconductor industry and market, consider purchasing the 2017 SIA Databook: https://www.semiconductors.org/forms/sia_databook/.

Jul 2017

Billions

Month-to-Month Sales                              

Market

Last Month

Current Month

% Change

Americas

6.59

6.94

5.4%

Europe

3.16

3.20

1.2%

Japan

2.98

3.04

2.1%

China

10.41

10.69

2.7%

Asia Pacific/All Other

9.50

9.77

2.8%

Total

32.64

33.65

3.1%

Year-to-Year Sales                         

Market

Last Year

Current Month

% Change

Americas

5.10

6.94

36.1%

Europe

2.69

3.20

18.9%

Japan

2.60

3.04

16.7%

China

8.61

10.69

24.1%

Asia Pacific/All Other

8.11

9.77

20.5%

Total

27.13

33.65

24.0%

Three-Month-Moving Average Sales

Market

Feb/Mar/Apr

May/Jun/Jul

% Change

Americas

6.08

6.94

14.2%

Europe

2.99

3.20

7.3%

Japan

2.88

3.04

5.7%

China

10.13

10.69

5.6%

Asia Pacific/All Other

9.21

9.77

6.0%

Total

31.29

33.65

7.5%

 Yole Développement (Yole) expects the IGBT market to go over US$ 5 billion by 2022 with a major growth coming from IGBT power module. The high performance that SiC and GaN materials can afford is already creating a battlefield with Silicon based IGBT. To overcome this thread, Si IGBT manufacturers need to look for prompt solutions as technologically update their systems for better efficiency or to increase their IGBT portfolio offer.

How is the IGBT market evolving for different applications? How will the IGBT market face the adoption of high performance WBG based devices?… Yole’s power electronics team proposes you today a new technology & market report titled IGBT market and technology trends 2017 report. Yole’s report presents an overview of the IGBT market including detailed forecasts and a new application section focused on energy storage systems. This analysis is also showing the status of the competitive landscape.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The IGBT market represents a very promising bet for the next few years, announces the “More than Moore” market research and strategy consulting company: its analysts invite you to discover the latest IGBT technology trends and market challenges.

“The IGBT industry will follow power electronics’ growth pattern, mainly caused by the high volume automotive market, especially for the electrification of powertrains in EV/HEV ”, asserts Dr Ana Villamor, Technology & Market Analyst, Power Electronics at Yole Développement.

The EV/HEV sector has great growth prospects because it is still an emerging market with tremendous volume potential.

Another big sector for IGBT is clearly motor drives, which keep on growing, thanks to aggressive regulation targets. Yole Développement forecasts a 4.6% CAGR for motor drives from 2016 to 2022. Photovoltaics and wind are very dynamic markets with growth from huge installations being installed during the last few years. It is worth to say that China led the solar panel implementation in 2016, with an impressive 35 GW installed.

“There will be applications for SiC which will impact the IGBT market, for example it is highly possible that it will take over the automotive market”, comments Dr Ana Villamor. “However, we forecast that IGBTs will keep a significant market share in the power electronics industry and will not be replaced completely.”

In fact, even if the IGBT has almost reached its technological limit, new designs and new materials can still be used to improve system performance to overcome the WBG devices arrival. In coming years, there will be new IGBT designs from Infineon, Fuji or ABB coming into the market. Packages are being improved by different manufacturers to decrease parasitics and improve system efficiency. A clear example is the introduction of the embedded techniques for discrete IGBTs and overmolded solutions for IGBT modules to reduce size or increase functional density.

Currently, IGBT manufacturers can have wide voltage ranges in their portfolios, going from 400 V to 6.5k V. The 400 V IGBTs will directly compete with MOSFETs, whereas IGBTs with voltages higher than 600 V will compete with SJ MOSFETs and WBG devices, which exhibit advantages over IGBTs. Lower voltage IGBTs will not be developed since they do not show any advantage compared with MOSFETs.

As IGBTs is a mature technology, the supply chain is well established, with strong partnerships and companies well positioned in each level.

“Therefore, the main IGBT manufacturers that we included in our 2015 report are still in the IGBT best sellers, except ON Semiconductor, which has become one of the top five IGBT vendors after the acquisition of Fairchild at the end of 2016”, explains Dr Ana Villamor. “However, more companies are entering the IGBT market in order to capture added value, like Littelfuse, who just announced the agreement on the acquisition of IXYS Corporation.”

The ConFab – an exclusive conference and networking event for semiconductor manufacturing and design executives from leading device makers, OEMs, OSATs, fabs, suppliers and fabless/design companies – announces the 2018 event will be held at THE COSMOPOLITAN of LAS VEGAS on May 20-23.

Pete Singer, Conference Chair of The ConFab and Editor-in-Chief of Solid State Technology had this to say, “The ConFab is a unique combination of business, technology and social interactions that make this industry gathering of influencers and leaders so valuable. In 2018, we will take a close look at the new applications driving the semiconductor industry, the technology that will be required at the device and process level to meet new demands, and – perhaps most importantly – the kind of strategic collaboration that will be required.” He also stated, “the key to continued business success for both guests and presenters will be the crucial insights that will be gained at the conference about critical market trends; and how to take advantage of emerging opportunities. Our goal is to “connect the dots” and how what’s going on in the end semiconductor application space (IoT, AI, 5G, VR, automotive, etc.) will ultimately impact semiconductor manufacturing and design.”

Keynotes, panel discussions and technical sessions on new technology needed in manufacturing will be a focal point of The ConFab 2018. Topics include: EUV, now entering volume production and ushering in a new era of patterning for the 7 and 5nm generations. And the many new materials being considered, transistors that are evolving from FinFETs to gate-all-around nanowires, on chip communication with silicon photonics emerging, and advanced packaging/heterogeneous integration as ever more critical. How semiconductors are playing an increasingly important role in the healthcare industry, will also be in the robust 2018 agenda.

The ConFab is a high-level, 3 1/2 day conference for decision-makers and influencers to connect, innovate and collaborate in multiple sessions, one-on-one private business meetings, and other daily networking activities. For more information, visit www.theconfab.com.

TowerJazz, the global specialty foundry, and Tacoma Technology Ltd and Tacoma (Nanjing) Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd (collectively known as “Tacoma”) announced today that Tower has received a first payment of $18 million net, rendering phase one of the framework agreement with Tacoma binding. This agreement maps the establishment of a new 8-inch semiconductor fabrication facility in Nanjing, China. According to the terms of the framework agreement, TowerJazz will provide technological expertise together with operational and integration consultation, for which the Company shall receive additional payments based on milestones during the next few years, subject to a definitive agreement specifying all terms and conditions.

In addition, from the start of production at the facility, TowerJazz will be entitled to capacity allocation of up to 50% of the targeted 40,000 wafer per month fab capacity, which it may decide to use at its discretion. This capacity will provide TowerJazz with additional manufacturing capability and flexibility to address its growing global demand.

Tacoma will be responsible to source funds for all activities, milestones and deliverables of the entire project, including the construction, commissioning and ramp of this facility, with the project being fully supported by Nanjing Economic and Technology Development Zone through its Administration Committee, Credito Capital as well as through potential funding from other third party investors and entities.

“This agreement with Tacoma is in line with our business strategy to focus on growing markets such as China. The fabless business in China has grown rapidly in the past years. The new 8-inch fabrication facility in Nanjing will provide us with a strategic footprint in China and the opportunity to extend our offerings in advanced specialty process technologies by enabling customers in China to optimize their product performance and time to market,” said Dr. Itzhak Edrei, TowerJazz President.

Russell Ellwanger, TowerJazz Chief Executive Officer, commented, “We are exploring multiple opportunities in China, and determined this agreement with Tacoma to be a good fit for TowerJazz, providing a roadmap for a meaningful long-term strategic partnership. China’s focus to develop its domestic semiconductor industry with full infrastructure presents additional opportunities for TowerJazz, as a global analog leader, to expand our served markets and geographic presence. This partnership will enable us to further fulfill our customers’ needs through additional available capacity as well as to be an active player in the growing Chinese market.”

Joseph Lee, Tacoma Chairman, stated: “Deeply engraved in the corporate culture of both Tacoma and TowerJazz is the core belief in working ‘SMART’ with ‘PASSION.’ Our people are committed to contributing to our business partners, the global semiconductor industry and society with the best endeavor and integrity. Tacoma will fully fund this project together with Credito Capital and other entities. This venture will become a dominant player in Asia and will raise the standard in the semiconductor industry to another level.”

A groundbreaking and signing ceremony took place in Nanjing, China, attended by TowerJazz Chairman Mr. Amir Elstein, President Dr. Itzhak Edrei, Business Development Vice President Mr. Erez Imberman, as well as the then Israeli Ambassador to China the Honorable Mr. Matan Vilnai. Pictured, the signing between Tacoma Chairman, Mr. Joseph Lee and TowerJazz CEO Mr. Russell Ellwanger, with among others the above cited attendees.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $97.9 billion during the second quarter of 2017, an increase of 5.8 percent over the previous quarter and 23.7 percent more than the second quarter of 2016. Global sales for the month of June 2017 reached $32.6 billion, an uptick of 2.0 percent over last month’s total of $32.0 billion, and a surge of 23.7 percent compared to the June 2016 total of $26.4 billion. Cumulatively, year-to-date sales during the first half of 2017 were 20.8 percent higher than they were at the same point in 2016. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“The global semiconductor industry has enjoyed impressive sales growth midway through 2017, posting its highest-ever quarterly sales in Q2 and record monthly sales in June,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Sales into the Americas market were particularly robust in June, and all regional markets saw growth of at least 18 percent year-over-year. Conditions are favorable for continued market growth in the months ahead.”

Regionally, sales increased compared to June 2016 in the Americas (33.4 percent), China (25.5 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (19.5 percent), Europe (18.3 percent), and Japan (18.0 percent). Sales also were up across all regions compared to last month: the Americas (5.1 percent), Europe (1.9 percent), China (1.5 percent), Japan (1.0 percent), and Asia Pacific/All Other (0.8 percent).

June 2017

Billions

Month-to-Month Sales                              

Market

Last Month

Current Month

% Change

Americas

6.27

6.59

5.1%

Europe

3.11

3.16

1.9%

Japan

2.95

2.98

1.0%

China

10.25

10.41

1.5%

Asia Pacific/All Other

9.43

9.50

0.8%

Total

32.00

32.64

2.0%

Year-to-Year Sales                         

Market

Last Year

Current Month

% Change

Americas

4.94

6.59

33.4%

Europe

2.68

3.16

18.3%

Japan

2.52

2.98

18.0%

China

8.29

10.41

25.5%

Asia Pacific/All Other

7.95

9.50

19.5%

Total

26.38

32.64

23.7%

Three-Month-Moving Average Sales

Market

Jan/Feb/Mar

Apr/May/Jun

% Change

Americas

5.96

6.59

10.5%

Europe

2.96

3.16

7.1%

Japan

2.84

2.98

4.8%

China

10.06

10.41

3.4%

Asia Pacific/All Other

9.02

9.50

5.4%

Total

30.84

32.64

5.8%

As 3D NAND becomes the mainstream technology, its challenging roadmap poses opportunities for continued innovation.

BY HARMEET SINGH, Lam Research Corp., Fremont, CA

Since its introduction several years ago, 3D NAND has become a mainstream technology because of its ability to increase bit density in memory devices. Its adoption has been accelerated by advances in the underlying manufacturing processes that are enabling 3D architectures and lowering the cost per bit. With all its advantages, however, the overall complexity and capital intensity of 3D NAND manufacturing add significantly to the challenges fabs are facing in terms of process control, yield, and economics.

Market and technology drivers for 3D NAND

The main impetus for 3D NAND was the recognition that planar technology was approaching the end of its physical limits to deliver higher densities and a lower cost-per-bit. Past advances in conventional planar NAND technology have primarily been driven by physical scaling, where lithography capabilities determined just how many memory cells could fit within a given die size. Using multiple levels of charge within each cell by going from single- to multi-level cell designs has also enabled increased bit densities. However, these improvements typically have come at the expense of speed because of the need to differentiate between the multiple levels of charge. In addition, since the individual memory cells for these designs lie in a horizontal plane, scaling is still ultimately limited by lithography. Other challenges in scaling 2D NAND beyond the 15 nm node include cell-to-cell interference, unscalable dielectrics, and electron leakage [1].

To address these challenges, 3D NAND fundamentally changes the scaling paradigm. Instead of traditional X-Y scaling in a horizontal plane, 3D NAND scales in the Z-direction by stacking multiple layers of NAND gates vertically. This allows more cells to be packed into the same X-Y space (planar area) on the die without shrinking dimensions horizontally. By easing cell size requirements, triple- and even quadruple-level cell designs are possible. As such, 3D NAND offers a signif- icant increase in bit density over planar NAND.

Unlike planar NAND, where scaling is primarily driven by lithography, 3D NAND scaling is enabled by advances in deposition and etch processes. An incredible level of precision and repetition is required in defining complex 3D structures with extremely high aspect ratio (HAR) features. Achieving success with 3D NAND requires innovative deposition and etch solutions that minimize variability.

Overview of critical 3D NAND processes

The 3D NAND architecture requires advanced capabilities enabling HAR and complex structures (FIGURE 1). Critical processes involved include multilayer stack deposition, HAR channel etch, wordline metallization, staircase etch, HAR slit etch, and stair contacts formation. The following sections look at some of these areas in more depth and describe the most critical process parameters that must be controlled.

Screen Shot 2017-07-27 at 9.33.14 AM

Film deposition

Creating stacked memory cells starts with depositing alternating layers of thin films. Unlike planar NAND, where cell pitch is defined by lithography, pitch in 3D NAND is determined by the film thickness. As such, precise control of layer-to-layer deposition uniformity is extremely important. Currently, commercial 3D NAND products in high-volume manufacturing have layers ranging from 32 to 48 pairs, while next-generation products with more than 60 pairs are now beginning high-volume ramps.

Critical requirements for depositing stacked films are the stress and uniformity of the individual layers within the overall stack. These requirements become more stringent and increasingly more challenging to meet as the number of layers grows. Wafer bow and local film stress (FIGURE 2) directly impact the ability to achieve precise lithog- raphy overlay. Film thickness and repeatability affects the active area of cell and consistency of the litho/etch performance. As a result, both film stress control and excellent uniformity are critical to wafer yields. To address these concerns, careful management of stress by tuning deposition conditions and optimizing integration is needed not only for the film stack deposition, but also throughout 3D NAND manufacturing.

Screen Shot 2017-07-27 at 9.33.22 AM

High aspect ratio channel etching

HAR channel etch is the most critical and challenging step in 3D NAND because it is key to achieving uniform hole size through multiple layers to define the channel of memory cells. More than a trillion holes must be etched simultaneously and uniformly on every wafer, each with an aspect ratio of more than 40:1. For comparison, the highest aspect ratio structure that is etched in planar NAND is less than 15:1.

Deep etch on these multilayer stacks can push the limits of physics to achieve uniformity from top to bottom. As shown in FIGURE 3, the high aspect ratio of this etch leads to transport limitation challenges that can generate a range of problems. These include incomplete etch wherein some holes don’t reach the bottom, bowing, twisting, and CD variation between the top and bottom of the stack. Such defects can lead to shorts, interference between neighboring memory strings, and other perfor- mance issues. Solving these HAR-related transport issues requires precise control of high-energy ions during the etch process. Technologies that help deliver this capability include a symmetric chamber design for intrinsic uniformity, a proprietary high ion energy source with advanced plasma confinement and modulation, and orthogonal (independent) uniformity tuning knobs, such as multi-zone gas delivery and temperature control to achieve required uniformity across the wafer.

Screen Shot 2017-07-27 at 9.33.33 AM Screen Shot 2017-07-27 at 9.33.40 AM

As the 3D NAND roadmap adds more layers to achieve higher bit density, channel hole etching becomes increasingly challenging due to higher aspect ratios. Managing the fundamental trade-offs among profile, selectivity, and CD requires continuous equipment innovation, not only to deliver HAR etching capabilities for more than 100 pairs, but also to do this at the productivity needed for volume manufacturing.

Wordline tungsten metal fill

For replacement-gate 3D NAND schemes, wordline tungsten fill provides the critical conductive links between individual memory cells within layers. This process is particularly challenging because of the need to achieve void-free fill of complex, narrow, lateral structures with minimal stress on the memory stack.

Due to the structural complexity, atomic-scale engineering is required for wordline fill. Traditional CVD tungsten films have inherent characteristics that limit capability for 3D NAND wordline fill. High tensile stress in CVD tungsten can lead to wafer bow, and fluorine in the process has been known to diffuse into adjacent layers where it can create yield-limiting defects. In addition, resistivity limits scaling: making each layer thinner would allow for more layers (more storage bits), but would also make wordline resistance too high. One approach to address these concerns is the use of a low-fluorine tungsten (LFW) ALD process. This has the ability to provide a smoother morphology that conforms better with the surface in each fill layer, thereby minimizing stress induced by the deposition process. Stress reduction by more than an order of magnitude has been demonstrated with LFW ALD technology. This approach has also been shown to lower fluorine content by up to 100x (FIGURE 4) and reduce resistivity by over 30% compared to conventional CVD tungsten.

Screen Shot 2017-07-27 at 9.36.22 AM

 

Staircase etch

The staircase etch step creates the individual contact pads for each memory cell within the layers. A highly controlled etch process is used to define the size of each contact pad. To reduce the cost associated with lithography and improve productivity, repeated vertical etch and lateral trim etch processes are adopted to form the staircase instead of using numerous lithography steps. For each lithography pass, multiple staircase levels can be created by etching and trimming, as shown in FIGURE 5. The number of stairs that can be formed by this process is determined by the lateral-to-vertical (L/V) etch rate. Improving L/V etch selec- tivity can reduce the number of lithography steps needed.

Screen Shot 2017-07-27 at 9.33.50 AM

Extreme accuracy is required to maintain the stair CD, thus avoiding misaligned contacts. If the CD for a pad is off by a few percent, that error will propagate through subsequent pads defined within the same lithography pass. Current technology can deliver uniform and repeatable stair CD precision of 1% (3-sigma) after more than five L/V trim processes. This is a critical factor for achieving high productivity and being able to scale to higher stacks with more layers economically.

Summary

Traditional planar scaling to increase NAND density is approaching its limits due to lithography and performance challenges. As 3D NAND becomes the mainstream technology, its challenging roadmap poses opportunitiesforcontinuedinnovation. Stress management throughout wafer processing is crucial, and significant innovations in both deposition and etch processes are essential in forming the HAR features that dominate 3D NAND architectures. Finally, reducing variability in every critical step is a must to meet performance, yield, reliability, and cost requirements.

3D NAND completely changes the scaling paradigm by going vertical. No longer limited by lithography capabilities, 3D NAND can achieve greater levels of integrity, perfor- mance, and reliability – while building vertically for higher bit density and a lower cost-per- bit – through relying on advances in deposition and etch processes.

References

1. Y.W. Park, Flash Memory, IEDM short course, 2015

In the current, unprecedented phase of active matrix organic light emitting diode (AMOLED) panel factory build-out, flexible AMOLED capacity will expand from 1.5 million square meters to 20.1 million square meters between 2016 and 2020, at a compound annual growth rate of 91 percent. In 2016, flexible capacity, or factories with the ability to produce AMOLEDs on plastic substrates, only accounted for 28 percent of total capacity targeting mobile applications. This will increase to 80 percent by 2020 as almost every new Gen 6 fab and smaller factory built over the next four years will be flexible compatible, according to IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

AMOLED_capacity_targeting_mobile_applications_by_substrate_type

According to the Display Supply Demand & Equipment Tracker by IHS Markit, between 2016 and 2020, China, Japan and South Korea will build the equivalent of 46 new flexible AMOLED fabs, whose monthly capacity reaches 30,000 substrates, each. These fabs will add 18.6 million square meters of new plastic substrate production capability, more than 13 times the industry’s current level.

“All of the new capacity will facilitate a rapid increase in flexible AMOLED panel adoption in smartphones,” said Charles Annis, senior director at IHS Markit. “Nevertheless, as so much new flexible capacity is being added, it is starting to raise concerns that the market will not be able to absorb all of the potential output.”

IHS Markit forecasts that the tight AMOLED panel supply in 2016 will continually give way to a growing capacity-based glut. The supply is predicted to exceed demand by more than 45 percent in 2020, when 40 percent of smartphones will adopt AMOLED panels.

“AMOLED displays will offer excellent image quality and form factor advantages in high-end phones. Despite excessive capacity availability, the challenge to faster adoption will be costs,” Annis said. High manufacturing costs for most makers will keep average rigid AMOLED panel prices 40 percent above equivalent LCD panels, while flexible AMOLED panel prices will remain 100 percent higher. “Smartphone makers, targeting mid and low-end market segments, may want to buy flexible AMOLED panels, but are likely to be restricted by lingering high prices.”

To absorb all the new capacity in the pipeline, flexible AMOLED panels will need to expand the market beyond smartphones to tablet PCs, notebooks and new form factors enabled by foldable displays. Ultimately, the rapid growth of flexible AMOLED capacity and the resulting increase in panel production will help to lower costs, increase yields and improve quality. In the long-run, this will spur further adoption into more applications; however, to get there, the industry may first need to cycle through a difficult period of digesting the 46 new flexible fabs now being built.

Worldwide PC shipments totaled 61.1 million units in the second quarter of 2017, a 4.3 percent decline from the second quarter of 2016, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. The PC industry is in the midst of a 5 year slump, and this is the 11th straight quarter of declining shipments. Shipments in the second quarter of this year were the lowest quarter volume since 2007.

“Higher PC prices due to the impact of component shortages for DRAM, solid state drives (SSDs) and LCD panels had a pronounced negative impact on PC demand in the second quarter of 2017,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner “The approach to higher component costs varied by vendor. Some decided to absorb the component price hike without raising the final price of their devices, while other vendors transferred the costs to the end-user price.”

However, in the business segment, vendors could not increase the price too quickly, especially in large enterprises where the price is typically locked in based on the contract, which often run through the quarter or even the year,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “In the consumer market, the price hike has a greater impact as buying habits are more sensitive to price increases. Many consumers are willing to postpone their purchases until the price pressure eases.”

HP Inc. reclaimed the top position from Lenovo in the worldwide PC market in the second quarter of 2017 (see Table 1). HP Inc. has achieved five consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth. Shipments grew in most regions, and it did especially well in the U.S. market where its shipments growth far exceeded the regional average.

Table 1
Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2Q17 (Thousands of Units)

Company

2Q17 Shipments

2Q17 Market Share (%)

2Q16 Shipments

2Q16 Market Share (%)

2Q17-2Q16 Growth (%)

HP Inc.

12,690

20.8

12,285

19.2

3.3

Lenovo

12,188

19.9

13,305

20.8

-8.4

Dell

9,557

15.6

9,421

14.7

1.4

Apple

4,236

6.9

4,252

6.7

-0.4

Asus

4,036

6.6

4,501

7.0

-10.3

Acer Group

3,850

6.3

4,402

6.9

-12.5

Others

14,546

23.8

15,710

24.6

-7.4

Total

61,105

100.0

63,876

100.0

-4.3

Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs and ultramobile premiums (such as Microsoft Surface), but not Chromebooks or iPads. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels. Numbers may not add up to totals shown due to rounding.
Source: Gartner (July 2017)

Lenovo’s global shipments declined 8.4 percent in the second quarter of 2017, after two quarters of growth. Lenovo recorded year-over-year shipment declines in all key regions. Ms. Kitagawa said the 2Q17 results could reflect Lenovo’s strategic shift from unit share gains to margin protection. The strategic balance between share gain and profitability is a challenge for all PC vendors.

Dell achieved five consecutive quarters of year-on-year global shipment growth, as shipments increased 1.4 percent in 2Q17. Dell has put a high priority on PCs as a strategic business. Among the top three vendors, Dell is the only vendor which can supply the integrated IT needs to businesses under the Dell Technologies umbrella of companies.

In the U.S., PC shipments totaled 14 million units in the second quarter of 2017, a 5.7 percent decline from the second quarter of 2016 (see Table 2). The U.S. market declined due to weak consumer PC demand. The business market has shown some consistent growth, while early indicators suggest that spending in the public sector was on track with normal seasonality as the second quarter is typically the peak PC procurement season. However, the education market was under pressure from strong Chromebook demand.

The Chromebook market has been growing much faster than the overall PC market. Gartner does not include Chromebook shipments within the overall PC market, but it is moderately impacting the PC market. Worldwide Chromebook shipments grew 38 percent in 2016, while the overall PC market declined 6 percent.

“The Chromebook is not a PC replacement as of now, but it could be potentially transformed as a PC replacement if a few conditions are met going forward,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “For example, infrastructure of general connectivity needs to improve; mobile data connectivity needs to become more affordable; and it needs to have more offline capability.”

Table 2
Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2Q17 (Thousands of Units)

Company

2Q17 Shipments

2Q17 Market Share (%)

2Q16 Shipments

2Q16 Market Share (%)

2Q17-2Q16 Growth (%)

HP Inc.

4,270

30.5

4,008

27.0

6.5

Dell

3,874

27.7

3,801

25.6

1.9

Lenovo

1,848

13.2

2,207

14.9

-16.3

Apple

1,649

11.8

1,825

12.3

-9.6

Asus

447

3.2

754

5.1

-40.7

Others

1,921

13.7

2,257

15.2

-14.9

Total

14,009

100.0

14,852

100.0

-5.7

Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs and ultramobile premiums (such as Microsoft Surface), but not Chromebooks or iPads. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels. Numbers may not add up to totals shown due to rounding.
Source: Gartner (July 2017)

PC shipments in EMEA totaled 17 million units in the second quarter of 2017, a 3.5 percent decline year over year. There were mixed results across various countries. Uncertainty around the U.K. elections meant some U.K. businesses delayed buying, especially in the public sector. In France, consumer confidence rose more than expected after Emmanuel Macron was elected president, however spending on PCs remains sluggish. PC shipments increased in Germany as businesses invest in Windows 10 based new hardware, and the Russian market continued to show improvement driven by economic stabilization.

In Asia/Pacific, PC shipments surpassed 21.5 million units in the second quarter of 2017, down 5.1 percent from the same period last year. The PC market in this region was primarily affected by market dynamics in India and China. In India, the pent up demand after the demonetization cooled down after the first quarter, coupled with the absence of a large tender deal compared to a year ago and higher PC prices, brought about weak market growth. The China market was hugely impacted by the rise in PC prices due to the component shortage

These results are preliminary. Final statistics will be available soon to clients of Gartner’s PC Quarterly Statistics Worldwide by Region program. This program offers a comprehensive and timely picture of the worldwide PC market, allowing product planning, distribution, marketing and sales organizations to keep abreast of key issues and their future implications around the globe.

 

Durcan_Mark_2400x3000_1_smlThe Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, announced Mark Durcan, former CEO of Micron Technology, Inc., and a longtime leader in advancing semiconductor technology, has been named the 2017 recipient of SIA’s highest honor, the Robert N. Noyce Award. SIA presents the Noyce Award annually in recognition of a leader who has made outstanding contributions to the semiconductor industry in technology or public policy. Durcan, who retired as Micron CEO on May 8, 2017, will accept the award at the SIA Annual Award Dinner on Tuesday, Nov. 14, 2017 in San Jose, an event that will also commemorate SIA’s 40th anniversary.

“Throughout his impressive career, Mark Durcan has demonstrated the best the semiconductor industry has to offer: hard work, ingenuity, and a relentless focus on promoting innovation,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “From his engineering roots to his recent work leading one of the world’s top manufacturers of memory products, Mark has strengthened our industry, advanced semiconductor technology, and reinforced America’s leadership of the global semiconductor market. On behalf of the SIA board of directors, it is a pleasure to announce Mark’s selection as the 2017 Robert N. Noyce Award recipient in honor of his outstanding accomplishments.”

A 30-year company veteran, Durcan rose from his first role as a Process Integration Engineer to Chief Technical Officer, President, and, ultimately, CEO in 2012. A key technical decision maker in bringing Micron’s next-generation technologies to market, Durcan expanded Micron’s global presence and enhanced its capabilities with strategic acquisitions, including Elpida (2012) and Rexchip (2012) and Inotera Memories, Inc. (2016). He also forged long-lasting partnerships with industry leaders such as Intel.

Durcan served as Chairman of the Micron Technology Foundation, Inc., which was formed to advance STEM education and support civic and charitable institutions in the communities in which Micron has facilities. He also currently serves on the board of directors for AmerisourceBergen Corp. and St. Luke’s Health System, a non-profit hospital system in Idaho. Durcan earned both bachelor’s and master’s degrees in chemical engineering from Rice University.

“It is a true honor to be selected for this award, and to join the ranks of its distinguished recipients, who are industry pioneers and icons,” said Durcan. “Nothing that I have accomplished during my career would have been possible without the influence of so many innovative and dedicated colleagues at Micron as well as our customers, suppliers, and partners. It is with sincere appreciation for their contributions to our industry that I gratefully accept this award.”

The Noyce Award is named in honor of semiconductor industry pioneer Robert N. Noyce, co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel.