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By Ed Korcynzski, Sr. Technical Editor

The near-term outlook for semiconductor manufacturing is challenging, with revenues down slightly but equipment spending up a bit, as reported by experts during the SEMI/Gartner Market Symposium held yesterday afternoon. The global economy is facing extreme uncertainty and is still recovering from the 2008/2009 financial crisis. Duncan Meldrum, Chief Economist with Hilltop Economics, explained why the after-shocks of the 2008/2009 global financial crisis combined with current political uncertainties result in a difficult investment environment. Compared to the 1993-2007 era when world real GDP was +3.2%, there are many indicators that the current ~2.3% GDP growth is the ‘new normal.’

“Rolling recessions in different regions have been pulling down global growth,” explained Meldrum. “Before the financial crisis, all the growth rates tended to be together in a coordinated global market. We’re actually seeing potential growth cut in half compared to what it was before the recession. That will create a new speed limit on the global economy, so it’ll be a tougher world than we’re used to.” These are high level macro-economic global investment numbers, but there’s a high correlation between these numbers and semiconductor industry silicon wafer processing in Millions of Square Inches (MSI).

Capital equipment forecast

Bob Johnson, Gartner research vice president, presented the outlook for semiconductor capital equipment, based on Garner’s economic model assumptions:

  • Consumer demand will remain weak,
  • High inventory of chips in all channels,
  • NAND and DRAM in oversupply for the rest of 2016,
  • Demand weakness continues longer term,
  • No new significant demand driver, and
  • Uncertain global economic climate post-Brexit.

Gartner is not bullish on the Internet-of-Things (IoT) to provide a next wave of demand. Premium smart-phones are expected to soon saturate global markets, and PC markets see weak consumer demand. In emerging markets, smartphones will take the majority of disposable income, which lowers new PC and tablet purchases by 10% through 2020.

NAND Flash is the long-term bright spot in the industry, with most of the growth driven by solid-state drives (SSD). However short-term oversupply in the second-half of 2016 is expected due to weak end markets, and increased output of planar 3bit/cell products. 3D-NAND represents 19% of the PetaBytes (PB) of total demand in 2016, increasing dramatically to 70% by 2020. SSDs are not just for PCs and mobile devices, but are moving into the enterprise segment and data centers, and 84% of SSDS will use 3D-NAND by 2020.

“3D-NAND manufacturing represents a major shift from litho-centric to etch-centric processing,” reminded Johnson. “The cost structures is still not competitive with 2D-NAND, but there will still be ~300k wafer-starts-per-month in the fourths quarter of 2016. By 2018, 3D-NAND will be half of the total NAND bits produced.” In response to 3D-NAND competition, 2D-NAND suppliers will likely do another shrink using their fully depreciated fabs, which will contribute to short-term oversupply.

Chinese foundry plans

Sam Wong, Gartner research vice president, discussed challenges of the foundry market related to China’s plans to develop domestic IC fab capability that is globally competitive. “Believe that China is really serious this time, with $140B investment,” said Wong. “The SOC capability of China is world-standard.”

For foundry markets in general, with increases in the number of mask layers with successive nodes the selling prices for finished wafers has to continue increasing. Wafer costs for fabless customers buying from foundries are now <$4K for 28nm-node, and <$7K for 14nm-node. TSMC ramped 14nm in one-half-year, and reports unprecedentedly low defects per mask layer to allow them to produce large Apple chips with high yield.

Packaging trends and china

Jim Walker, Gartner vice president of research, presented on “Semiconductor Packaging: the crucial growth component in China’s electronics supply chain.” IC manufacturing is critical to the economic growth and national security of China, and it is part of the ‘made in China 2015’ plan issued by China’s State Council.

China todays has already invested sufficient resources to now have ~1/3 of the global floor-space in Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) facilities, while the percent of global revenue taken by Chinese companies is still much less. Since China has updated investment plans earlier this year, both South Korea and Taiwan industry organizations issued public statements of the need for strategic counter-investments. The semiconductor industry production in Taiwan represents ~13% of its total GDP, so China’s investment into this market is seen as a major threat.

asmlThe Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced Martin van den Brink, president and chief technology officer at ASML Holding and renowned pioneer in semiconductor manufacturing technology, has been named the 2016 recipient of SIA’s highest honor, the Robert N. Noyce Award. SIA presents the Noyce Award annually in recognition of a leader who has made outstanding contributions to the semiconductor industry in technology or public policy. Van den Brink will accept the award at the annual SIA Award Dinner on Thursday, Nov. 10 in San Jose, an event that will commemorate the 25thanniversary of the Noyce Award.

Many past award recipients will be in attendance to celebrate the anniversary, including the following semiconductor industry leaders and founders: Dr. Craig Barrett, Dr. Morris Chang, John Daane, Dr. John E. Kelly III, Stanley Mazor, Jim Morgan, Jerry Sanders, George Scalise, Mike Splinter, Ray Stata, Rich Templeton, and Pat Weber.

“Throughout his distinguished career, Martin van den Brink has been a true semiconductor industry innovator, champion, and visionary, pioneering optical lithography methods that have given rise to the smaller, faster, more efficient chips that underpin modern technology,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Martin’s myriad accomplishments over the last 30 years have strengthened our industry and fundamentally transformed semiconductor manufacturing. On behalf of the SIA board of directors, it is a pleasure to announce Martin’s selection as the 2016 Robert N. Noyce Award recipient in recognition of his outstanding achievements.”

During Van den Brink’s three decades at ASML, he has led transformative advances in optical lithography procedures used to manufacture semiconductors. Optical lithography, a microfabrication process in which light-sensitive chemicals are used to transfer circuit patterns onto chip wafers, is the primary technology used for the production of semiconductors and has allowed for the continued miniaturization of chips. Thanks in large part to Van den Brink’s technological leadership, ASML is now the world’s largest supplier of optical lithography equipment for the global semiconductor industry.

Van den Brink was one of ASML’s first employees, joining when the company was founded in 1984. He has held various engineering positions since that time, including Vice President, Technology and Executive Vice President, Marketing & Technology. He has served on ASML’s Board of Management since 1999 and was appointed President and CTO on July 1, 2013. Van den Brink earned a degree in Electrical Engineering from HTS Arnhem, and a degree in Physics from the University of Twente, the Netherlands.

“I’m extremely gratified to accept this honor and enter the company of previous Noyce Award recipients, many of whom I’m proud to call friends, colleagues, and mentors,” said Van den Brink. “Throughout my career, I have been privileged to work with some of the finest scientists, engineers, and researchers in the world, individuals who have helped strengthen the semiconductor industry, the tech sector, and the global economy. It is with them in mind that I thankfully accept this award and look forward to continuing to work alongside them to advance semiconductor innovation.”

The Noyce Award is named in honor of semiconductor industry pioneer Robert N. Noyce, co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel.

“I’m also pleased that we will be joined at this event by so many of the past winners of the Noyce Award who have built this industry and driven its success over the years,” Neuffer said. “This event will be a unique opportunity to celebrate the industry and the promise for the future.”

SMIC acquires LFoundry


June 27, 2016

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, the largest and most advanced foundry in mainland China, jointly announces with LFoundry Europe GmbH (“LFE”) and Marsica Innovation S.p.A. (“MI”), the signing of an agreement on June 24, 2016 to purchase a 70% stake of LFoundry for a consideration of 49 million EUR.

LFoundry is an integrated circuit wafer foundry headquartered in Italy, which is owned by LFE and MI. At the closing, SMIC, LFE and MI will own 70%, 15% and 15% of the corporate capital of the target respectively. This acquisition benefits both SMIC and LFoundry, through increased combined scale, strengthened overall technology portfolios, and expanded market opportunities for both parties to gain footing in new market sectors.

This also represents the Mainland China IC foundry industry’s first successful acquisition of an overseas-based manufacturer, which marks a major step forward in internationalizing SMIC; furthermore, through this acquisition, SMIC has formally entered into the global automotive electronics market.

As the leading semiconductor foundry in Mainland China, in the first quarter of 2016, SMIC recorded profit for the 16th consecutive quarter with revenue of US$634.3 million, an increase of over 24% year-on-year. In 2015, SMIC recorded annual revenue of US$2.24 billion. In fiscal year 2015, LFoundry revenue reached 218 million EUR.

This acquisition will bring both companies additional room for business expansion. At present, SMIC’s total capacity includes 162,000 8-inch wafers per month and 62,500 12-inch wafers per month, which represents a total 8-inch equivalent capacity of 302,600 wafers per month. LFoundry’s capacity amounts to 40,000 8-inch wafers per month. Thus, by consolidating the entities, overall total capacity would increase by 13%; this combined capacity will provide increased flexibility and business opportunities for supporting both SMIC and LFoundry customers.

SMIC has a diversified technology portfolio, including applications such as radio frequency (“RF”), connectivity, power management IC’s (“PMIC”), CMOS image sensors (“CIS”), embedded memory, MEMS, and others—mainly for the communications and consumer markets. Complementarily, LFoundry’s key focus is primarily in automotive, security, and industrial related applications including CIS, smart power, touch display driver IC’s (“TDDI”), embedded memory, and others. Such consolidation of technologies will broaden the overall technology portfolios and enlarge the areas of future development for both SMIC and LFoundry.

Dr. Tzu-Yin Chiu, the CEO and Executive Director of SMIC said, “The successful completion of the LFoundry srl acquisition agreement is an important step in our global strategy. Both SMIC and LFoundry will mutually benefit from the shared technology, products, human talents and complementary markets. This will additionally expand our production scale and allows us to service the automotive IC market and for LFoundry to enter into China’s consumer electronics market, thus bolstering our overall development and growth. Through the acquisition, communication and cooperation in the semiconductor industry between China and Europe has been further enhanced, and contributes to the mutual success of the integrated circuit industry in both regions. In the future SMIC will continue to enhance, strengthen, and further expand leadership in the global semiconductor ecosystem.”

Sergio Galbiati, the Managing Director of MI and Chairman of LFoundry srl, said, “This is the beginning of a new era for LFoundry and our Italian fab. We are pleased to become part of a very strong worldwide player, SMIC. Together we can further improve LFoundry’s strength on optical sensor related technology, which is well recognized worldwide, and continue to contribute to the growth of technology in Europe, thanks to our partnerships with many relevant players. The agreement with SMIC will enable us to have a stronger level playing field in Europe.”

Günther Ernst, the Managing Director of LFE and CEO of LFoundry srl, said, “We have made significant efforts in achieving technology excellence. The agreement with SMIC will further enable us to better use our own manufacturing capacity and have access to SMIC’s extremely diverse technology offerings while taking advantage of SMIC’s commercial network and overall capacity. As part of SMIC, LFoundry will continue to pioneer technology to help our customers achieve success and drive value for our partners and employees around the world. We look forward to working closely with the SMIC team to ensure a smooth transition.”

Despite slower growth for the automotive industry and exchange rate fluctuations, the automotive semiconductor market grew at a modest 0.2 percent year over year, reaching $29 billion in 2015, according to IHS (NYSE: IHS), a global source of critical information and insight.

A flurry of mergers and acquisitions last year caused the competitive landscape to shift, including the merger of NXP and Freescale, which created the largest automotive semiconductor supplier in 2015 with a market share of 14.3 percent, IHS said. The acquisition of International Rectifier (IR) helped Infineon overtake Renesas to secure the second-ranked position, with a market share of 9.8 percent. Renesas slipped to third-ranked position in 2015, with a market share of 9.1 percent, followed by STMicroelectronics and Texas Instruments.

“The acquisition of Freescale by NXP created a powerhouse for the automotive market. NXP increased its strength in automotive infotainment systems, thanks to the robust double-digit growth of its i.MX processors,” said Ahad Buksh, automotive semiconductor analyst for IHS Technology. “NXP’s analog integrated circuits also grew by double digits, thanks to the increased penetration rate of keyless-entry systems and in-vehicle networking technologies.”

NXP will now target the machine vision and sensor fusion markets with the S32V family of processors for autonomous functions, according to the IHS Automotive Semiconductor Intelligence Service Even on the radar front, NXP now has a broad portfolio of long- and mid-range silicon-germanium (SiGe) radar chips, as well as short-range complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) radar chips under development. “The fusion of magnetic sensors from NXP, with pressure and inertial sensors from Freescale, has created a significant sensor supplier,” Buksh said.

The inclusion of IR, and a strong presence in advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), hybrid electric vehicles and other growing applications helped Infineon grow 5.5 percent in 2015. Infineon’s 77 gigahertz (GHz) radar system integrated circuit (RASIC) chip family strengthened its position in ADAS. Its 32-bit microcontroller (MCU) solutions, based on TriCore architectures, reinforced the company’s position in the powertrain and chassis and safety domains.

The dollar-to-yen exchange rate worked against the revenue ranking for Renesas for the third consecutive year. A major share of Renesas business is with Japanese customers, which is primarily conducted in yen. Even though Renesas’ automotive semiconductor revenue fell 12 percent, when measured in dollars, the revenue actually grew by about 1 percent in yen. Renesas’ strength continues to be its MCU solutions, where the company is still the leading supplier globally.

STMicroelectronics’ automotive revenue declined 2 percent year over year; however, a larger part of the decline can be attributed to the lower exchange rate of the Euro against the U.S. dollar in 2015, which dropped 20 percent last year. STMicroelectronics’ broad- based portfolio and its presence in every growing automotive domain of the market helped the company maintain its revenue as well as it did. Apart from securing multiple design wins with American and European automotive manufacturers, the company is also strengthening its relationships with Chinese auto manufacturers. Radio and navigation solutions from STMicroelectronics were installed in numerous new vehicle models in 2015.

Texas Instruments has thrived in the automotive semiconductor market for the fourth consecutive year. Year-over-year revenue increased by 16.6 percent in 2015. The company’s success story is not based on any one particular vehicle domain. In fact, while all domains have enjoyed double-digit increases, infotainment, ADAS and hybrid-electric vehicles were the primary drivers of growth.

IHS_Auto_Semis_Ranking_2015

Other suppliers making inroads in automotive

After the acquisition of CSR, Qualcomm rose from its 42nd ranking in year 2014, to become the 20th largest supplier of automotive semiconductors in 2015. Qualcomm has a strong presence in cellular baseband solutions, with its Snapdragon and Gobi processors; while CSR’s strength lies in wireless application ICs — especially for Bluetooth and Wi-Fi. Qualcomm is now the sixth largest supplier of semiconductors in the infotainment domain.

Moving from 83rd position in 2011 to 37th in 2015, nVidia has used its experience, and its valuable partnership with Audi, to gain momentum in the automotive market. The non-safety critical status of the infotainment domain was a logical stepping stone to carve out a position in the automotive market, but now the company is also moving toward ADAS and other safety applications. The company has had particular success with its Tegra processors.

Due to the consolidation of Freescale, Osram entered the top-10 ranking of automotive suppliers for the first time in 2015. Osram is the global leader in automotive lighting and has enjoyed double-digit growth over the past three years, thanks to the increasing penetration of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) in new vehicles.

By Debra Vogler, SEMI

A forum of industry experts at SEMICON West 2016 will discuss the challenges associated with getting from node 10 — which seems set for HVM — to nodes 7 and 5. Confirmed speakers at the “Node 10 to Node 5 ─ Dealing with the Slower Pace of Traditional Scaling (Track 2)” session on Tuesday, July 12, 2:00pm-4:00pm, are Lode Lauwers (imec), Guy Blalock (IM Flash), Kelvin Low (Samsung), Mike Chudzik (Applied Materials), Kevin Heidrich (Nanometrics), and David Dutton (Silvaco). SEMI interviewed Lauwers and Chudzik to see what challenges they see ahead as the industry progresses from node 7 to node 5.

According to Mike Chudzik, senior director, Cross-Business Unit Modules Team at Applied Materials, “The top tw or three process development challenges facing the industry at node 7 are RC reduction, RC reduction, and RC reduction,” Chudzik told SEMI. “At the 7nm node, parasitic resistance and parasitic capacitance delays are predicted to be greater than the inherent transistor delay.” Among the solutions he cites are new materials such as cobalt for the contact fill, lower-k spacers, and integration solutions, such as air-gap and replacement contact schemes. “While FinFETs are expected to scale to the 7nm node, their days are numbered. If you want to scale to the true historical 0.7X 7nm node, it’s a challenge for FinFETs because continuing to scale the gate length requires scaling the fin width.” He also explained that the variability in patterned fins will cause serious device performance challenges at near 5nm fin width on account of quantum confinement. “Something new like gate-all-around (GAA) devices are needed to fuel the next-generation of device scaling.”

Figure 1: At the 7nm node (CD of 13nm), the resistance of the TiN/W fill materials for the contact plug is expected to become higher than the interfacial contact resistance. SOURCE: Applied Materials

Figure 1: At the 7nm node (CD of 13nm), the resistance of the TiN/W fill materials for the contact plug is expected to become higher than the interfacial contact resistance. SOURCE: Applied Materials

Among the materials challenges in getting to nodes 7 and 5 are cobalt implementation for the contact, and Si/SiGe superlattices for the 5nm node, explained Chudzik. “The former challenge concerns replacing tungsten in the contact plug, and the latter is needed to form horizontal GAA structures.” Figure 1 shows that at the 7nm node (CD of 13nm) the resistance of the TiN/W fill material for the contact plug is expected to become higher than the interfacial contact resistance. “A TiN/Co solution provides relief.”

In addition to improving the performance of the interconnect, Lode Lauwers, VP, business development for CMOS technology at imec, told SEMI that getting to node 7 will require very advanced fin technology combined with a patterning solution. Looking ahead to node 5, he said it is expected that the fin will still be the reference technology, along with the introduction of new materials such as SiGe, and a high concentration of Ge in the channel as a mobility improvement, and possibly even the consideration of III-V materials (particularly at N5) (see Figures 2 and 3).

Figure 2: Performance and energy efficiency roadmap: devices architectures. SOURCE: imec

Figure 2: Performance and energy efficiency roadmap: devices architectures. SOURCE: imec

Figure 3: Performance and energy efficiency roadmap: transistor features that are driving the logic roadmap. SOURCE: imec

Figure 3: Performance and energy efficiency roadmap: transistor features that are driving the logic roadmap. SOURCE: imec

In looking out towards the horizon, Lauwers pointed out that the industry has to consider alternatives to the fin because there is an engineering limit to how small the fin dimensions can be made. “There is the possibility that at node 5 the industry will consider alternatives to the traditional fin, said Lauwers. “For example, the GAA structure (also referred to as a lateral or horizontal nanowire, HGAA) is superior in terms of gate control and will have better leakage control. That means you will be able to have better performance over a lower supply voltage with a lower threshold voltage.”

Beyond HGAA structures, Lauwers observed that the industry could move to a vertical nanowire structure (VGAA). But there are several contenders (see Figure 2). “It’s not up to imec to choose and it’s too early to say what will be the right option,” Lauwers told SEMI. “Maybe for certain applications or a certain technology positioning, a device maker might make a different compromise.”

In addition to imec and Applied Materials, speakers from IM Flash, Nanometrics, Samsung, and Silvaco will present at the “Scaling: Node 10 to Node 5” session of the three-day Advanced Manufacturing Forum (see Schedule-at-a-Glance) at SEMICON West 2016 which takes place July 12-14 in San Francisco, Calif.

IC Insights has just released the Update to its 2016 IC Market Drivers Report that examines and evaluates key existing and emerging end-use applications that will support and propel the IC industry through 2019.

In 2015 and early 2016, there were numerous reports of slowing in the Chinese smartphone market. Since most of the Chinese smartphone producer’s sales are to Chinese customers, this slowdown became evident in some of their 2015 and 1Q16 smartphone sales figures.  For example, China-based Coolpad’s smartphone sales dropped by 44% in 2015 to only 25.5 million units.  Moreover, Xiaomi, a real “high-flyer” in smartphone sales in 2013 and 2014 saw its growth slow to 16% last year.  While a 16% growth rate is still very commendable, its sales of about 71 million smartphones last year was well below the company’s earlier stated goal of shipping 100 million smartphones in 2015.

Figure 1 depicts actual 1Q16 smartphone unit sales by the top 12 companies with a forecast for their full-year 2016 unit volume shipments.  As shown, eight of the top 12 companies are headquartered in China with an Indian company (Micromax) making the list for the first time.   Gionee, a China-based smartphone supplier, just missed making the 1Q16 top 12 ranking after shipping 4.8 million handsets in the quarter.

IC Insights believes that there will be very little middle ground with regard to smartphone shipment growth rates among the top 12 suppliers this year.  As shown, seven of the top twelve companies are forecast to register 2016 growth rates of 6% or less while the other five companies are expected to each log 29% or better increases.  Further illustrating the maturing of the smartphone market, the top two suppliers, Samsung and Apple, are each forecast to show a slight decline in smartphone shipments this year.

Three companies are expected to drop out of the top 12 ranking this year as compared to 2015—Japan-based Sony, U.S.-based Microsoft, and China-based Coolpad.  These three companies saw their 1Q16 sales of smartphones drop to 3.4, 2.3, and 4.0 million, respectively.  Although Microsoft announced it intends to sell its non-smartphone business later this year, its early 2016 Lumia smartphones shipments put it on a path to sell less than 15 million units in 2016.

chinese ic suppliers fig 1

Figure 1

Additional details on the cellphone IC market are included in the 2016 Update of IC Insights’ IC Market Drivers—A Study of Emerging and Major End-Use Applications Fueling Demand for Integrated Circuits. This report examines the largest, existing system opportunities for ICs and evaluates the potential for new applications that are expected to help fuel the market for ICs through the end of this decade.

The 2015 analog market grew 2% to $47.0 billion.  Combined sales of general-purpose analog products (amplifiers/comparators, interface, power management, an signal conversion devices) increased 2% to $19.1 billion and sales of application-specific analog devices also improved 2% to $27.9 billion. Among analog IC products the market for signal conversion devices showed the largest increase in 2015, growing 14% to $2.9 billion.

IC Insights’ ranking of top analog IC suppliers for 2015 is shown in Figure 1.  Collectively, these 10 companies accounted for 56% of global analog sales last year, down slightly from 57% in 2014. Among the top suppliers, nine had analog sales in excess of $1.0 billion; five of these had sales in excess of $2.0 billion.  Only tenth-ranked Renesas fell short of the $1.0 billion mark.  With a 10% increase, NXP’s analog sales outperformed the total analog market by the widest margin (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Figure 1

Texas Instruments was again the leading supplier of analog devices in 2015 with $8.3 billion in sales, which was good for 18% marketshare.  TI’s analog sales slightly surpassed the combined revenue of the next three-largest analog suppliers, and represented 69% of its total semiconductor revenue last year.  TI has always been a major player in analog, but beginning in 2009, it doubled down on its long-term efforts to dominate this market segment. That year, TI became the first company to manufacture analog devices on 300mm equipment.  It purchased 300mm manufacturing tools from defunct Qimonda and transferred it to its existing fabs in Texas to build analog ICs.  In 2010, TI acquired two wafer fabs operated by Spansion in Aizu-Wakamatsu, Japan, and a fully equipped 200mm fab in Chengdu, China from Cension Semiconductor Manufacturing.  Both facilities were converted and immediately put to use making analog ICs.  In April 2011, TI acquired National Semiconductor—its rival in many analog markets—for $6.5 billion.

TI also strengthened its analog position by transitioning to 300mm manufacturing capacity at its newer RFAB and its older DMOS 6 fabs.  Aside from boosting its analog manufacturing capacity, moving to 300mm wafer helped reduce total production costs by 40%, according to the company.

Other changes seen in the 2015 ranking include Infineon moving up one place to become the second-largest analog supplier and Skyworks Solutions moving up two spots to #3.  ST slipped from #2 in 2014 to #5 in the 2015 ranking following its 13% decline in analog sales, which it attributed to soft equipment sales (computer, consumer, automotive, industrial) among its primary customers. Collectively, Infineon, NXP, and ST—Europe’s three-largest IC suppliers—accounted for 15% analog marketshare last year.

Skyworks continues to enjoy solid analog sales due to design wins with smartphones providers around the world. Skyworks Solutions makes analog and mixed signal semiconductors for Apple, Samsung, and other suppliers of mobile devices.  Many of Skyworks’ power amplifier components are found in Apple’s iPhone 6 models.  It has been estimated that Skyworks supplies $4 worth of content for every iPhone 6 handset.

Although highly focused in mobile markets, Skyworks plans to expand into the automotive, home, and wearable markets to develop its presence in applications linked to the Internet of Things.  Analog ICs such as audio amplifiers, op amps, and analog switches are building blocks for creating wearable applications. Skyworks’ wireless technology is used in General Electric healthcare equipment, and the company recently sealed a deal to supply high-performance filter solutions to Panasonic.

Analog Devices’ analog sales grew 2% last year.  One of its key analog ICs is a device that enables 3D/Force Touch, a feature available on the Apple Watch, the latest iPhones, and new generations of the iPad, that uses tiny electrodes to distinguish between a light tap and a deep press to trigger contextually specific controls.

IC Insights forecasts the total analog market to grow 4% this year, reaching $49.1 billion and then surpass the $50.0 billion mark for the first time in 2017 as analog sales climb to an expected $51.4 billion. From 2015 to 2020, the analog market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6%, one point higher than the total IC market.

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM).

The current memory landscape spans from venerable DRAM to hard disk drives to ubiquitous flash. But in the last several years PCM has attracted the industry’s attention as a potential universal memory technology based on its combination of read/write speed, endurance, non-volatility and density. For example, PCM doesn’t lose data when powered off, unlike DRAM, and the technology can endure at least 10 million write cycles, compared to an average flash USB stick, which tops out at 3,000 write cycles.

This research breakthrough provides fast and easy storage to capture the exponential growth of data from mobile devices and the Internet of Things.

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM). This research breakthrough provides fast and easy storage to capture the exponential growth of data from mobile devices and the Internet of Things. In this photo, IBM scientist , Nikolaos Papandreou holds the PCM chip under a magnifying lens in his lab. (Credit: IBM Research)

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM). This research breakthrough provides fast and easy storage to capture the exponential growth of data from mobile devices and the Internet of Things. In this photo, IBM scientist , Nikolaos Papandreou holds the PCM chip under a magnifying lens in his lab. (Credit: IBM Research)

Applications 

IBM scientists envision standalone PCM as well as hybrid applications, which combine PCM and flash storage together, with PCM as an extremely fast cache. For example, a mobile phone’s operating system could be stored in PCM, enabling the phone to launch in a few seconds. In the enterprise space, entire databases could be stored in PCM for blazing fast query processing for time-critical online applications, such as financial transactions.

Machine learning algorithms using large datasets will also see a speed boost by reducing the latency overhead when reading the data between iterations.

How PCM Works 

PCM materials exhibit two stable states, the amorphous (without a clearly defined structure) and crystalline (with structure) phases, of low and high electrical conductivity, respectively.

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM). In this photo, the experimental multi-bit PCM chip used by IBM scientists is connected to a standard integrated circuit board. The chip consists of a 2 × 2 Mcell array with a 4- bank interleaved architecture. The memory array size is 2 × 1000 μm × 800 μm. The PCM cells are based on doped-chalcogenide alloy and were integrated into the prototype chip serving as a characterization vehicle in 90nm CMOS baseline technology. (Credit: IBM Research)

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM). In this photo, the experimental multi-bit PCM chip used by IBM scientists is connected to a standard integrated circuit board. The chip consists of a 2 × 2 Mcell array with a 4- bank interleaved architecture. The memory array size is 2 × 1000 μm × 800 μm. The PCM cells are based on doped-chalcogenide alloy and were integrated into the prototype chip serving as a characterization vehicle in 90nm CMOS baseline technology. (Credit: IBM Research)

To store a ‘0’ or a ‘1’, known as bits, on a PCM cell, a high or medium electrical current is applied to the material. A ‘0’ can be programmed to be written in the amorphous phase or a ‘1’ in the crystalline phase, or vice versa. Then to read the bit back, a low voltage is applied. This is how re-writable Blue-ray Discs* store videos.

Previously scientists at IBM and other institutes have successfully demonstrated the ability to store 1 bit per cell in PCM, but today at the IEEE International Memory Workshop in Paris, IBM scientists are presenting, for the first time, successfully storing 3 bits per cell in a 64k-cell array at elevated temperatures and after 1 million endurance cycles.

“Phase change memory is the first instantiation of a universal memory with properties of both DRAM and flash, thus answering one of the grand challenges of our industry,” said Dr. Haris Pozidis, an author of the paper and the manager of non-volatile memory research at IBM Research – Zurich. “Reaching 3 bits per cell is a significant milestone because at this density the cost of PCM will be significantly less than DRAM and closer to flash.”

To achieve multi-bit storage IBM scientists have developed two innovative enabling technologies: a set of drift-immune cell-state metrics and drift-tolerant coding and detection schemes.

More specifically, the new cell-state metrics measure a physical property of the PCM cell that remains stable over time, and are thus insensitive to drift, which affects the stability of the cell’s electrical conductivity with time. To provide additional robustness of the stored data in a cell over ambient temperature fluctuations a novel coding and detection scheme is employed. This scheme adaptively modifies the level thresholds that are used to detect the cell’s stored data so that they follow variations due to temperature change. As a result, the cell state can be read reliably over long time periods after the memory is programmed, thus offering non-volatility.

“Combined these advancements address the key challenges of multi-bit PCM, including drift, variability, temperature sensitivity and endurance cycling,” said Dr. Evangelos Eleftheriou, IBM Fellow.

The experimental multi-bit PCM chip used by IBM scientists is connected to a standard integrated circuit board. The chip consists of a 2 × 2 Mcell array with a 4- bank interleaved architecture. The memory array size is 2 × 1000 μm × 800 μm. The PCM cells are based on doped-chalcogenide alloy and were integrated into the prototype chip serving as a characterization vehicle in 90 nm CMOS baseline technology.

OpenPOWER 

At the 2016 OpenPOWER Summit in San Jose, CA, last month, IBM scientists demonstrated, for the first time, phase-change memory attached to POWER8-based servers (made by IBM and TYAN® Computer Corp.) via the CAPI (Coherent Accelerator Processor Interface) protocol. This technology leverages the low latency and small access granularity of PCM, the efficiency of the OpenPOWER architecture and the CAPI protocol. In the demonstration the scientists measured very low and consistent latency for 128-byte read/writes between the PCM chips and the POWER8 processor.

For more information on today’s announcement watch this video: https://youtu.be/q3dIw3uAyE8. Continue the conversation at @IBMResearch #3bitPCM.

IC Insights will release its May Update to the 2016 McClean Report later this month.  This Update includes a discussion of the 1Q16 semiconductor industry market results, an update of the capital spending forecast by company, a review of the IC market by electronic system type, and a look at the top-25 1Q16 semiconductor suppliers (the top 20 1Q16 semiconductor suppliers are covered in this research bulletin).

The top-20 worldwide semiconductor (IC and O S D—optoelectronic, sensor, and discrete) sales ranking for 1Q16 is shown in Figure 1.  It includes eight suppliers headquartered in the U.S., three in Japan, three in Taiwan, three in Europe, two in South Korea, and one in Singapore, a relatively broad representation of geographic regions.

The top-20 ranking includes three pure-play foundries (TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and UMC) and six fabless companies. If the three pure-play foundries were excluded from the top-20 ranking, U.S.-based IDM ON Semiconductor ($817 million), China-based fabless supplier HiSilicon ($810 million), and Japan-based IDM Sharp ($800 million) would have been ranked in the 18th, 19th, and 20th positions, respectively.

IC Insights includes foundries in the top-20 semiconductor supplier ranking since it has always viewed the ranking as a top supplier list, not a marketshare ranking, and realizes that in some cases the semiconductor sales are double counted.  With many of our clients being vendors to the semiconductor industry (supplying equipment, chemicals, gases, etc.), excluding large IC manufacturers like the foundries would leave significant “holes” in the list of top semiconductor suppliers.  As shown in the listing, the foundries and fabless companies are identified.  In the April Update to The McClean Report, marketshare rankings of IC suppliers by product type were presented and foundries were excluded from these listings.

Overall, the top-20 list shown in Figure 1 is provided as a guideline to identify which companies are the leading semiconductor suppliers, whether they are IDMs, fabless companies, or foundries.

Figure 1

Figure 1

In total, the top-20 semiconductor companies’ sales declined by 6% in 1Q16/1Q15, one point less than the total worldwide semiconductor industry decline of 7%.  Although, in total, the top-20 1Q16 semiconductor companies registered a moderate 6% drop, there were seven companies that displayed a double-digit 1Q16/1Q15 decline and three that registered a ≥25% fall (with memory giants Micron and SK Hynix posting the worst results).  Half of the top-20 companies had sales of at least $2.0 billion in 1Q16.  As shown, it took $832 million in quarterly sales just to make it into the 1Q16 top-20 semiconductor supplier list.

There was one new entrant into the top-20 ranking in 1Q16—U.S.-based fabless supplier AMD.  AMD had a particularly rough 1Q16 and saw its sales drop 19% year-over-year to $832 million, which was about half the $1,589 million in sales the company logged just over two years ago in 4Q13.  Although AMD did not have a good 1Q16, Japan-based Sharp, the only company that fell from the top-20 ranking, faired even worse with its 1Q16/1Q15 sales plunging by 30%!

In order to allow for more useful year-over-year comparisons, acquired/merged semiconductor company sales results were combined for both 1Q15 and 1Q16, regardless of when the acquisition or merger occurred.  For example, although Intel’s acquisition of Altera did not close until late December of 2015, Altera’s 1Q15 sales ($435 million) were added to Intel’s 1Q15 sales ($11,632 million) to come up with the $12,067 million shown in Figure 1 for Intel’s 1Q15 sales.  The same method was used to calculate the 1Q15 sales for Broadcom Ltd. (Avago/Broadcom), NXP (NXP/Freescale), and GlobalFoundries (GlobalFoundries/IBM).

Apple is an anomaly in the top-20 ranking with regards to major semiconductor suppliers. The company designs and uses its processors only in its own products—there are no sales of the company’s MPUs to other system makers. Apple’s custom ARM-based SoC processors had a “sales value” of $1,390 million in 1Q16, up 10% from $1,260 million in 1Q15.  Apple’s MPUs have been used in 13 iPhone handset designs since 2007 and a dozen iPad tablet models since 2010 as well as in iPod portable media players, smartwatches, and Apple TV units.  Apple’s custom processors—such as the 64-bit A9 used in iPhone 6s and 6s Plus handsets introduced in September 2015 and the new iPhone 6SE launched in March 2016—are made by pure-play foundry TSMC and IDM foundry Samsung.

Intel remained firmly in control of the number one spot in 1Q16.  In fact, it increased its lead over Samsung’s semiconductor sales from 29% in 1Q15 to 40% in 1Q16.  The biggest moves in the ranking were made by the new Broadcom Ltd. (Avago/Broadcom) and Nvidia, each of which jumped up three positions in 1Q16 as compared to 1Q15.

As would be expected, given the possible acquisitions and mergers that could/will occur this year (e.g., Microchip/Atmel), as well as any new ones that may develop, the top-20 semiconductor ranking is likely to undergo a significant amount of upheaval over the next few years as the semiconductor industry continues along its path to maturity.