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April 12, 2012 — The ConFab 2012, an invitation-only global conference and business meeting on semiconductor manufacturing, June 3-6 in Las Vegas, selected speakers and sessions for 2012 that cover the business climate for semiconductor companies in the face of uncertain economies; the impact of the “smart society” on the electronics industry; the relationship between fabless semiconductor companies, foundries, and packaging houses; insights into the technical challenges the industry faces; a fresh status report on the transition to 450mm wafers; a look at the increasing importance of 3D integration and advanced packaging, and an in-depth look at the changing requirements of legacy fabs.

The ConFab 2012 sessions:

  • The Economic Outlook for the Semiconductor Industry
  • Technology Trends in Semiconductor Manufacturing
  • The Foundry-Fabless Supply Chain
  • Advanced Packaging and Progress in 3D Integration
  • Maximizing the Longevity of Investments

Keynote talks will also present the concept of a “virtual IDM” as a way for foundries, fabless and OSATs to collaborate, and the need for support of the “smart society” and the complete supply chain required.

Confirmed speakers:

  • John Chen, Vice President of Technology and Foundry operations, Nvidia
  • Ali Sebt, CEO of Renesas U.S.
  • Jaclyn A. Sturm, Vice President of Intel’s Technology and Manufacturing Group and General Manager of Global Sourcing and Procurement
  • Dan Hutcheson, CEO and chairman of VLSI Research
  • Jim Feldhan, President of Semico
  • An Steegan, Senior Vice President for Integration, imec
  • Tom Jefferson, Program Coordination Manager, G450C
  • Naoya Hayashi, Research Fellow, Electronic Device Operations, Dai Nippon Printing
  • Stefan Wurm, Director of Lithography, SEMATECH
  • Nick Yu, VP of Technology Development, Qualcomm
  • Mike Noonan, Senior Vice President, Worldwide Sales and Marketing, GLOBALFOUNDRIES
  • BJ Woo, Senior Director Graphic/ PLD/CPU Business Development Division, TSMC
  • Xin Wu, Principal Engineer, Xilinx
  • David McCann, Senior Director for Packaging R+D, GLOBALFOUNDRIES
  • Sandeep Bharathi, Vice President of Engineering, Xilinx
  • Ron Huemoeller, Senior Vice President, 3DAmkor
  • Bill Chen, ASE Fellow and Sr. Technical Adviser, ASE
  • Mike Barrow, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, International Rectifier
  • Chuck Spinner, Vice President and General Manager, ON Semiconductor U.S.
  • Sanjay Rajguru, Director, ISMI
  • Gary Robertson, Division General Manager, KLA-Tencor
  • John Frank, Senior VP Industrial and Advanced Technology, CH2MHill

Entering its eighth year, The ConFab offers a venue for executives from semiconductor equipment and material suppliers to meet with key decision makers from semiconductor manufacturers. Attendees are pre-screened to verify that they are key participants in the buying process. The event is organized by Pennwell Corporation.

“The outlook for the semiconductor industry has never been brighter, and our program is designed to highlight new opportunities as well as coming challenges. A special thanks to this year’s advisory board for their expertise in bringing it all together,” said Peter Singer, conference chair and editor-in-chief of Solid State Technology.

The ConFab 2012 sponsors: Advantest, AG Semiconductor, Applied Materials, Applied Seals of North America, ATMI, AZ Electronic Materials, Brewer Science, EV Group, KLA-Tencor, Hitachi, Lam Research, Levitronix, Marcy Nanocenter at SUNYIT & NY Loves Nanotech, Nikon, Novellus, Pall Microelectronics, Qcept Technologies, Red Equipment, Lord Corporation, SEMI, Tokyo Electron, Valqua America, Rudolph Technologies and Ulvac Technologies.

Advisory board: David Bennett, VP Alliances, GLOBALFOUNDRIES; Janice Golda, Director Lithography Capital Equipment Development, Intel; Abraham Yee, Director Advanced Technology & Package Development, Nvidia Corp; Sima Salamati, President, ZYadS Inc., Engineering and Manufacturing Consulting Company (Retired Texas Instruments Fab and Test manager); Paul Farrar, VP, Albany Expansion and Strategic Initiatives, IBM Corporation; Hans Stork, CTO, ON Semiconductor; Geoffrey Yeap, VP of Technology, Qualcomm Inc.; Lori Nye, COO/Executive Director Customer Operations, Brewer Science; Paul Edstrom, consultant (formerly CTO GE Commercial Finance); John Lin, Director of Mfg Technology Center, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Ltd.; Ken Rygler, President, Rygler & Associates (founder of Toppan Photomasks); Takeshi Hattori, President, Hattori Consulting International; Bill Tobey, President, ACT International; Thomas Jefferson, Program Director, G450C; Richard Young, Vice President of Manufacturing Technology, SEMATECH; and Pete Singer, Editor-in-Chief, Solid State Technology.

Learn more at www.theconfab.com. For sponsorship information, please contact Sabrina Straub ([email protected]). For more information about attending, please contact Luba Hrynyk ([email protected]).

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This SEMI News and Views blog is written by Jonathan Davis, president, SEMI Semiconductor Business.

April 11, 2012 — With estimates for the R&D cost of 450mm wafer transition running in the tens of billions of dollars, public-private partnerships will have a critical role throughout the world.  Already, the State of New York is anticipating a $400 million investment in advanced chip research over the coming years and the European Union is funding research in a variety of Key Enabling Technologies including microelectronics manufacturing.  Many countries around the world will see next-generation 450mm wafer tools and fabs as critical features of a national competitiveness strategy.  In anticipation of the increased role in government support for advanced chip manufacturing technology, SEMI has been actively engaged in education and other efforts with policymakers around the world. 

SEMI: Working with U.S. Legislators on Effect of Transition

As the topic of the transition to 450mm becomes more relevant at industry seminars, conferences, and boardrooms, SEMI has met with over 150 Federal and State government officials to discuss the likely impacts and requirements on a chip industry transition to 450mm wafers.

Along with a group of member company representatives, SEMI recently met with senior staff for California Governor Jerry Brown in the state capital of Sacramento.  With 200 SEMI member companies headquartered in California, semiconductor manufacturing is high-priority issue for the Governor Brown’s office.  Gov. Brown has shown great leadership in not only understanding the needs of the semiconductor equipment industry in California, but the need for a strong domestic industry infrastructure across the nation.

On the national level, Representative Mike Honda (D-CA) has been fully engaged in learning more about the semiconductor equipment industry, as he represents a large portion of Silicon Valley in the House of Representatives.  Rep. Honda sits on the powerful Appropriations Committee which writes the annual bills that directly fund the federal government.  The Congressman visited SEMI headquarters in February to hear directly from SEMI members about the challenges that they are facing and meet with SEMI staff to hear their policy concerns.  Rep. Honda also organized a briefing for other Members of Congress and their staffs in Washington, D.C. to hear from the President of the SEMI Semiconductor IC Business Unit Jonathan Davis about the semiconductor equipment industry overall, and about the 450mm transition in particular.  Rep. Honda also penned an op-ed in The Hill, a Washington political newspaper, about the need for the U.S. government to compete with other nations in supporting the 450mm transition.

Along with Rep. Honda, SEMI has received positive support for its education efforts from Rep. Chris Gibson (R-NY) who represents a large swath of the upstate New York Capital Corridor, and whose district includes the Global Foundries Fab in Malta, NY.   SEMI has also been active in working with members of both parties in the U.S. Senate including Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Senator Scott Brown (R-MA), and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY).  Each one of these Senators has significant SEMI membership in their states and has been working hard to engage on the issues surrounding the transition to 450mm.

There is much work to be done before the industry fully transitions to 450mm technology.  In order to be completely prepared, policymakers must be fully informed of the issues that surround the transition, and SEMI is working to ensure that they understand the ramifications of such a massive industry undertaking. 

SEMI’s Washington D.C. office continues to focus on key issues and holds events such as the Washington Forum and other lobbying activities to ensure that our industry’s collective voice is heard. Please let us know if you would like to get involved in public policy efforts in the U.S. (contact Jamie Girard at [email protected]). 

In addition, the industry will learn more about the supply chain implications of 450mm at the various 450mm programs at SEMICON West 2012, which takes place on July 10-12 in San Francisco, Calif.

Europe Considers How Government Policies Could Support the 450mm Supply Chain  

At the recent ISS Europe, the implications of the industry-wide transition to 450mm manufacturing technologies and the important role that European equipment and materials companies play in the global market were discussed.  Malcolm Penn, CEO, of market research firm Future Horizons, noted at the conference, “If Europe doesn’t embrace 450mm, Europe will be history.”  Penn believes that the 450mm era may ultimately introduce a less adversarial business model given the intense requirements for collaboration to implement the technology.

Bas van Nooten, director European Cooperative Programs, ASM International and spokesperson for the European Equipment and Materials Initiative (EEMI) said that the European semiconductor equipment and materials industry employs more than 100,000 people and it is key for the European supply chain to be prepared for the wafer transition.  He referenced the EEMI450 White Paper, which was recently presented to the European Commission and concludes that support and collaboration across all elements of the research and development operation, including National Governments, is vital to maximize 450mm European equipment and materials manufacturer readiness and subsequent market opportunity. 

Imec president and CEO Luc Van den hove, said that to maintain long-term innovation leadership position in Europe, it will be imperative to set up a 450mm R&D and demonstration facility. It will be needed to support the entire European eco system including equipment and material suppliers. He believes that such 450mm R&D and demo facility will act as the primary innovation engine 5 to 10 years from now.

In addition to government programs aimed at 450mm funding support, other essential policy objectives required to sustain chip manufacturing in Europe were enumerated at the conference. Representatives from existing European fabs cited concerns about “make or break” decisions that pit 450mm against on-going profitable 300mm and 200mm operations.

Michael Hummel, managing director, Texas Instruments said that, “Investment alone will not sustain the industry in Europe.” He referred to a number of other policy considerations including labor laws, utility cost, and the pipeline of science and engineering talent.  Hummel notes that TI wafer fabs in Europe are competitive.  For the analog company, most of the challenges are economic — not technical. Therefore, compromise will be an essential policy parameter to sustain the health of some existing European manufacturing.

ISS Europe conference attendees heard opinions about diverse strategies that recognize the 450mm, 300mm and 200mm interests as well as the critical role that R&D and the equipment and materials supply chain plays — not only for Europe, but around the world.  It is increasingly apparent that a thoughtful public policy support is needed to sustain innovation, jobs and critical manufacturing in Europe.

In Europe, the discussion will continue at the sixth SEMI Brussels Forum, which is coming up soon on May 22. The SEMI Brussels Forum gathers 200 policy influencers from 20 countries to discuss the issues. About 25 percent of the participants are European Commission representatives, while  25 percent are from EU institutions. Participants represent 20 countries.  Please let us know if you would like to get involved in public policy efforts in Europe (contact Stephan Raithel at [email protected]).

In the U.S., the industry will learn more about the supply chain implications of 450mm at the various 450mm programs at SEMICON West 2012 which takes place in San Francisco, Calif. on July 10-12.
In conclusion, SEMI is driving collaborative dialog through a number of activities including international standards development, industry information programs, expositions and conferences, and increasingly, a strong public policy education program.

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April 11, 2012 — The pure-play semiconductor foundry business will ride the growth of tablets, ultrabooks, and smartphones to $29.6 billion in revenues, according to an IHS iSuppli Semiconductor Manufacturing and Supply Market Tracker report.

This is a 12% increase over $26.5 billion in 2011, about 3x the rate of growth expected for the overall semiconductor industry. From 2010 to 2011, foundries saw only 3% growth, falling off after a 45% increase 2009-2010.

Demand will steadily increase from late in Q1 2012 to a peak in Q3. Unlike the drop-off seen in 2011, this foundry revenue growth will carry through in the years ahead. 2013 can expect 14% revenue growth ($33.6 billion), and 2014 and 2015 will also see solid double-digit growth.

Figure. Worldwide pure-play semiconductor foundry revenue forecast. SOURCE: IHS iSuppli Research, April 2012.

  2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Billions of US Dollars $26.5 $29.6 $33.6 $37.5 $42.2    

Consumer electronics require advanced semiconductors with high performance and low power consumption, said Len Jelinek, director and chief analyst of semiconductor manufacturing at IHS. These applications use more semiconductors per product to support these needs. Notable drivers include tablets, smartphones, and ultrabooks.

Increased tablet and smartphone sales will spur revenue expansion for NAND flash memory and logic application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) semiconductor markets.

The ultrabook will revitalize notebook PCs, in turn growing revenues for microprocessors.

In contrast, DRAM will underperform. A top DRAM player, Elpida Memory Inc., filed for bankruptcy at the beginning of 2012.

The pure-play foundry landscape comprises 4 Tier 1 suppliers, and 16 Tier 2 companies. Rankings: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC) holds the top spot with $14 billion in 2011 revenue. TSMC remains in the unique position of having more capacity than all of its competitors combined, as well as possessing the financial strength to outspend every one of its rivals. TSMC recently beat its Q1 expectations. UMC is a distant #2 with $3.6 billion revenues. GLOBALFOUNDRIES follows with $3.5 billion, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC) made $1.3 billion. SMIC doubled its Q1 guidance this week.

At the top of Tier 2 is TowerJazz Semiconductor, with $613.0 million in 2011 revenues. TowerJazz also enjoys another distinction: The model used by the company to increase capacity, through fab acquisition with a multiyear foundry manufacturing agreement, remains the most viable expansion method for companies looking to grow capacity, IHS asserts. TowerJazz acquires a fab and then builds off of the expertise of an existing manufacturing facility, effectively serving demand when it is aggregated in the semiconductor market, especially as many second-tier foundries in China and Europe are finding it difficult to achieve differentiation.

Also read: Top semiconductor companies and Top foundry rankings

The global economy could present challenges for foundry profits, IHS believes. Improving conditions in the US and Eurozone countries could stall, with tensions in the Middle East and high energy prices weighing on economic recoveries.

Inventory also remains a key concern throughout the electronics supply chain, with many companies waiting to place orders until the last possible minute. Overall manufacturing capacity remains in excess of demand. How much additional inventory reduction will be necessary remains to be seen: new innovations could fuel semiconductor growth, or a simple adjustment could be made to supply and demand for existing products.

Foundries could become even more cautious on actual capital spending in 2012, and expenditures are already forecast to plunge 19% from 2011.

Foundries also will have to contend with a continuing decline in average selling prices (ASP) in light of increased overall competition.

Learn more at http://www.isuppli.com/Semiconductor-Value-Chain/Pages/Improved-Economic-Conditions-May-Jump-Start-Foundry-Manufacturers.aspx

IHS (NYSE: IHS) provides information, insight and analytics in critical areas that shape today’s business landscape. Internet: www.ihs.com.

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April 3, 2012 — Semiconductor lead times decreased at the end of February 2012, reports analyst firm Gartner Inc. Although Gartner still expects the semiconductor industry to grow in 2012, Q1 showed some signs of softness.

Figure. Selected lead times at semiconductor distributors. SOURCE: Gartner Inc.

Revenues at semiconductor vendors were down in Q4 2011, while inventory rose. Semiconductor lead times were at their shortest in December 2011, steadily rising through the reporting period (to February 6, 2012). The average of minimum lead times peaked (8 weeks) on February 8, 2012 after a steady climb (about 2.5 weeks) from its low point (5.4 weeks) on December 28, 2011.

The lead time index, which is more sensitive to changes in lead times across all distributors, peaked at 10.8 weeks on February 8, 2012 and was down to 10.3 weeks on February 22. Despite fluctuations in lead times — seen as the market recovers from excessive inventory — the market shows improved health, Gartner says. This conclusion is supported by the slower trend downward after February 8, 2012.

The semiconductor inventory correction identified in Q4 2011 should be nearly complete by the end of Q1 2012. The first quarter is typically is a down quarter for sales.

More on semiconductor inventories:

Chip inventories contract, reversing 7 quarter trend and Semiconductor inventories coast at record levels into 2012.

Expect lead times to rise as the wireless semiconductor supply chain normalizes after the inventory correction. Gartner sees volatility in lead times for some parts, and this may result in minor delays or hiccups in the process. Gartner’s lead time index reflects market demands and conditions.

Manufacturers should watch for increases in demand and monitor changes to their inventory levels and lead times to best match and anticipate purchasing needs.

View Market Trends: Semiconductor Lead Times Slip Lower in February 2012 at http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?doc_cd=228553.

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April 2, 2012 – BUSINESS WIRE — Samsung Electronics officially spun out its LCD Business as new corporation Samsung Display Co. Ltd, display panel technology and product maker. Donggun Park, EVP and head of the former LCD Business, will lead Samsung Display as CEO.

Samsung Display will begin operations after its incorporation registration tomorrow.

The former Samsung Electronics LCD Business recorded KRW 22.7 trillion (approximately USD20 billion) in annual revenue in 2011. It has 20,000 employees and 5 display production sites globally. The LCD Business operated for 21 years, starting as an R&D unit for Samsung Electronics in 1991.

At an inauguration ceremony, Samsung Display was encouraged to become the #1 global display manufacturer, by Park and about 350 employees in attendance. By unit sales, Samsung’s LCD Business was the second largest display maker behind LG Display. Samsung Display will “supply a wide variety of customized products,” Park said. The new corporate structure will allow Samsung Display to respond to rapidly changing market conditions, the company reports. IHS analysts say the change will boost Samsung Display’s short-term competitiveness, and may herald the long-term dominance of active-matrix organic light emitting diode (AMOLED) in display technology.

As its own corporation, Samsung Display can attract many more customers without concerns about competitors with Samsung Electronics. Conversely, Samsung Electronics can source panels from multiple suppliers, IHS notes.

Samsung Display Co. Ltd. provides display panel technologies and products for consumer, mobile, IT and industrial applications. For more information, visit www.samsungdisplay.com.

Hon Hai recently took a stake in Sharp’s Gen 10 display fab, which is expected to improve utilization rates for the display company, which lags behind Samsung and LG Display. Hon Hai’s partnership created a new subsidiary called Sharp Display Product.

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March 30, 2012 — Barclays Capital finds that light-emitting diode (LED) manufacturing and materials patents will soon run out, potentially draining value from material/chip/package suppliers and turning LEDs into commodities. These financial and market dynamics take-aways were gleaned from the Intertech Pira Phosphor Summit, a conference on phosphors being used in the LED industry.

For Barclay’s update on phosphor technologies, gleaned from the conference, read Phosphor trends for LED manufacturing

LED-related patents are buoying the top LED makers selling to lighting companies; however, core LED patents will expire in the next 4-5 years, leading to more intensified competition. Top LED makers — Cree, Nichia, OSRAM, and Lumileds — are the go-to sources for global lighting manufacturers — GE, Philips, OSRAM — thanks to strong patent protection. Barclays notes that cross-licensing arrangements between these LED makers make it difficult to gauge precisely when this patent position begins to erode.

Some Korean and Taiwanese LED makers — Epistar, Seoul Semi, Samsung, LG Innotek, and Forepi — have secured licensing agreements or partnerships with the top LED makers, gaining access to Acuity Brands, Zumtobel, Hubbell, Cooper and other top luminaire manufacturers in developed regions. But even as LED manufacturers in Korea, Taiwan, and even China ramp capacity and gradually improve their LED chip/component quality, global lighting conglomerates continue to purchase LEDs only from the top LED manufacturers.

The continual evolution in the LED structure makes it difficult to isolate which core patents remain a true barrier for new entrants (i.e. chip color, phosphor composition, chip structure, color mixing), Barclays notes. LED makers continue to develop novel ways to improve luminous efficacy (lm/W), CRI (color quality), thermal management, lifetime, and cost.

Although it is difficult to compare the various new product claims among the top LED makers (i.e. claims about theoretical luminous efficacy levels are often not apples to apples due to different specs around drive current and voltage, color temperature, LM70 lifetimes), what was clear from the various presentations and comments at the conference was that the top 4 LED makers maintain a noticeable quality leadership relative to Tier 2 and 3 players.

The majority of profits in the LED lighting sector will go to the lighting system manufacturers in the future, given an LED oversupply on the market and LED patents running out. Once core IP is no longer patent-protected, the materials, chip, and package suppliers will watch value fade from their offerings. Lighting companies can still differentiate products through design and distribution, while procuring commodity-like LED components. LED maker Cree’s push downstream "may be a prudent step," Barclays reports, given this trend.

Lighting suppliers and chip makers (Cree, Lumileds, and OSRAM made statements on recent earnings calls) confirm that IP does not make them immune to pricing pressure, with competition among the Tier 1 LED makers fighting for spots with lighting companies.

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March 30, 2012 — The worldwide semiconductor foundry market totaled $29.8 billion in 2011, a 5.1% increase from 2010, according to Gartner Inc. IBM Microelectronics and Powerchip Technology jumped up in the top 10 foundry rankings for 2011. Given aggressive foundry spending in 2010 and 2011, oversupply was “inevitable,” Gartner says, as shown in Gartner’s article: Semiconductor capex to fall 11.6% in 2012

The foundry market was “relatively flat” in 2011, following a surge of 40.5% from 2009 to 2010, said Samuel Tuan Wang, research director at Gartner. Foundry customers have largely moved to leaner inventory practices, starting in mid-2011, Wang added. Utilization rates for foundries declined quarter to quarter in 2011. GSA recently reported that Q4 was a surprise, with utilization rates going up, not down, across all chip fabs. The annual average utilization rate dropped to 81% from 91% in 2010, Wang said. Theme of 2011? Top-player domination: the top 5 foundries accounted for almost 80% of market share. TSMC alone held 48.8% of the foundry market, expanding its revenue 2010-2011.

Table. Top 10 companies’ sales revenue from foundry wafer shipments to the world, 2011. ($M). *Samsung revenue does not include ASIC business from Apple. SOURCE: Gartner, March 2012.

2011 Rank 2010 Rank Company 2010 Sales 2010 Market

Share (%)

2011 Sales 2011 Market Share (%) Year-Over-Year Change (%)  
1 1 TSMC 13,332 47.1 14,533 48.8 9.0  
2 2 UMC 3,824 13.5 3,604 12.1 -5.8  
3 3 GlobalFoundries 3,520 12.4 3,580 12.0 1.7  
4 4 SMIC 1,554 5.5 1,319 4.4 -15.1  
5 6 TowerJazz 509 1.8 613 2.1 20.4  
6 8 IBM Microelectronics 500 1.8 545 1.8 9.0  
7 7 Vanguard International 505 1.8 516 1.7 2.2  
8 5 Dongbu HiTek 512 1.8 483 1.6 -5.7  
9 10 Samsung¹ 390 1.4 470 1.6 20.5  
10 19 Powerchip Technology 149 0.5 431 1.4 189.3  
    Top 10 for 2011 24,795 87.6 26,094 87.7 5.2  
    Others 3,510 12.4 3,660 12.3 4.3  
    Total Market 28,305 100.0 29,754 100.0 5.1

While Samsung’s foundry business ranked #9 with $470 million in revenue, it could have been as hight as #4 if Gartner included the estimated $1 billion in wafer business that Samsung received Samsung Electronics aggressively expanded its LSI business in 2011.

Powerchip shifted its strategic focus from commodity DRAM production to foundry services in early 2011, paying off with a nearly threefold increase in foundry revenue in one year.

The semiconductor supply chain was affected by Japan’s 3/11 earthquake and tsunami, and Thailand’s late 2011 flooding, and US currency’s steep depreciation in 2011. PC production was weak and consumer demand soft, but stable media tablet and mobile phone demand kept semiconductor/foundry revenues at a modest growth rate, said Wang, and demand for mobile electronics will stay high. Communications, consumer, and data processing applications continued to drive foundry revenues in 2011, making up 42.7%, 20.9%, and 20.3% of foundry revenue respectively.

Fabless semiconductor companies made up 77.8% of foundry business, followed by integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) at 20.2%, and system companies.

By region, America’s customers generated 62.8% of the foundry revenue, Asia/Pacific 22.2%, Europe 10%, and Japan 4.9%.

Additional details are available in the Gartner report “Market Share: Semiconductor Foundry Market in 2011.” The report is available at http://www.gartner.com/resId=1952216. Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) provides information technology research and advice.

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March 29, 2012 — Light emitting diode (LED) revenues are slowing down in 2012, after two years of remarkable growth, according to Strategy Analytics. LED fab equipment spending and epitaxial substrate demand in the LED sector will decline in 2012.

Equipment manufacturers like AIXTON have recently reported that inherent softness in LED demand was being masked by substantial funding from Asian governments. Despite the demand weakness, the industry is developing new products with an eye on higher-performance and lower-cost LEDs, said Asif Anwar, director, Strategy Analytics Strategic Technologies Practice. The industry is preparing for "the next wave of LED adoption."

This wave appears to be commercial and residential LED lighting, said Eric Higham, director of the Strategy Analytics GaAs and Compound Semiconductor Technologies Service, who notes that the LED industry grows in cycles. “The first phase involved backlighting for small consumer devices, like mobile handsets. These solutions have evolved to meet the needs of laptop, television, electronic sign and automotive applications and the next wave for LED adoption appears to be commercial and residential lighting.”

The Strategy Analytics viewpoint, "Compound Semiconductor Industry Review January 2012: Optoelectronics, Materials & Equipment," summarizes financial, product, contract and employment announcements from major optoelectronic material, device and equipment suppliers in January 2012, categorizing by material and equipment, laser, LED and compound photovoltaic activity. The report captures announcements for companies such as AIXTRON, Soitec, Sumitomo Electric, AXT, IQE, Oclaro, Cree, Renesas Electronics, GigOptix, Avago Technologies, JDSU, Lumileds and First Solar. Access the report at http://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=ReportAbstractViewer&a0=7210

March 27, 2012 — Barclays Capital shares some take-aways from the Intertech Pira Phosphor Summit, a conference on phosphors being used in the light-emitting diode (LED) industry. The analysts touch on LED efficiency and quality from phosphors, color mixing, remote phosphors, and silicone encapsulants for LED packages.

The phosphor market is largely a game of scale and relationships, as much of the intellectual property (IP) around phosphors was created in the 1970-80s (at least for select element combinations) and protection has by now expired, Barclays notes. However, Intertech Pira Phosphor attendees saw some of the top LED makers pursuing phosphor development to improve LED efficiency and color quality.

Phosphor color mixing: Most of the LED industry uses a blue LED die topped with a yellow-phosphor-coated lens for white light emission. Leading LED makers presented new manufacturing approaches, adding a red phosphor to the yellow phosphor to increase the white light quality (the color rendering index [CRI] increases from 67 to 78).

Remote phosphors: Philips introduced a remote phosphor architecture several years ago, wherein the LED die are arranged in a bulb or module topped with a phosphor-coated ceramic plate. This avoids the heat generation, lowered efficiency, and precise match between the wavelength of the die and the composition of the phosphor of putting the phosphor inside the LED package. Remote-phosphor packaged LEDs withstand higher system-level temperatures and enable more flexibility at system-level design — mixing and matching LED die and phosphor plates to achieve consistent light output and quality.

Remote phosphor plates use more phosphor than standard coated lenses. The presenters at the Intertech Pira Phosphor Summit are working on stacking the phosphors in a remote phosphor plate (i.e. a yellow followed by a red layer) rather than mixing them together.

Silicone encapsulants: The LED industry has traditionally used epoxy encapsulants to seal the LED, despite the materials’ tendency to brown with heat exposure. Now, LED makers are switching to silicone encapsulants.

Rare earths: Rare earths compose LED phosphors: terbium, europium, and yttrium. Phosphor is expensive and is increasing in price due to rare earth supply constraints instituted in China, where 95% of rare earth production is concentrated. The industry expects shortages of these rare earths to last through at least 2015. Phosphors account for ~10-15% of rare earth volume end demand. Given expectations for supply tightness and growing demand for LED phosphors as unit shipment continue grow, phosphor prices are likely to continue to move higher. However, phosphors explicitly account for <5% of an LED chip’s total cost, higher from a BOM perspective. Some pressure could come onto LED profit margins/selling prices if phosphor costs spiral upwards.

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