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The future of electronics is increasingly being shaped by two major trends: mobile computing and the “internet of things.” The pervasiveness of mobile is fairly obvious, with 1.2 billion units expected to ship in 2014. The internet of things is less obvious, but slowly becoming a reality. The idea is that all objects in our environment are equipped with sensors and identifying devices and connected to the internet.  And I’m talking about everything, from buildings to freeways to food containers to medicine.

When the internet of things becomes a reality, companies would not run out of stock, as involved parties would know which products are required and consumed. Mislaid and stolen items would be easily tracked and located, as would the people who use them.

At the recent Common Platform Technology Forum — produced by Global Foundries, Samsung and IBM — Simon Segars, executive vice president and general manager of the physical IP division at ARM, spoke about the impact of the internet of things and mobile computing on the way electronics are designed and used. “Microcontrollers and sensors are getting embedded into pretty much everything we interact with,” he said. “You’re going to need very small and very power-efficient technology, and a power-efficient wireless network to bring it all together.”

Segars said changes in computing requirements will transform how chips in servers, wireless communication networks and mobile phones are designed. “It’s the case in pretty much any form of electronics, if you know what you’re doing, dedicated hardware is the best way of saving power. This is why you have a video engine and a graphics engine in your phone — because it’s very expensive to do it on a general purpose computer. The same holds true for servers. If you know what you’re doing, you might as well build yourself some dedicated hardware to do it,” he said. Servers of the future could potentially be powered by SoCs instead of dedicated, big processors. “This is a great thing for the fabless industry because the fabless world knows how to make SoCs really well,” he said.

Similarly, rather than get “fixated” by the apps processor in mobile phones, Segars said it’s important to pay attention to the other chips used, such as smaller control chips used to manage battery power or the touch screen, for example. “These aren’t necessarily manufactured on the most leading edge digital process,” he said. “These are using older, more mature processes which can drive higher voltages. There’s a need for continual evolution on that kind of process technology, because it’s going to be required for a long time.”

As far as the “internet of things” goes, Segars said it’s a “bit like science fiction right now,” but it’s probably going to happen. Sensors will be built into buildings, the freeway, and into the environment in general, detecting what is going on in the world. “It’s going to generate just a phenomenal amount of data which is going to back to all those servers, and it’s going to need processing and be delivered to you in a way that’s actually useful so you can make some decisions. All of this is driving the demand for semiconductors, driving the demand for lower power electronics and driving the demand for future higher bandwidth wireless devices between all these devices,” he said.

Phones are now outselling PCs and are the primary mechanism for people engaging with the outside world. Segars said this is driven by the technology innovations. “By continually driving power consumption down, we’ve been able to come up with these really small form factors, devices that are always on and always connected to the outside world. It’s really been quite staggering,” he said.

He noted that, while the technology has evolved, the industry behind that technology has evolved a lot as well. In the 70s, companies were vertically integrated.  Today, the industry has desegregated from companies that did everything to these tiers of companies who have specialized. “The benefits of that specialization have been improved economies of scale and companies that have been profitable in their own right without having to do everything,” he said.

He also commented on the need to look at the supply chain in a new light. “It’s easy to think of this as a stack, from somebody doing design down to somebody doing manufacturing and building equipment, but it’s much more complex than that. In order to not lose efficiency as you fragment into this desegregated world, it become very important for companies to collaborate in what they’re doing. If you own everything, the good news is you can tweak absolutely everything because it’s all yours. But that’s very expensive. If you don’t own everything, you have to rely on all of these companies in your supply chain to actually work together and drive out potential inefficiencies.”   

According to Segars, a better way to think about the industry today is a circle where all these companies in different industries are working together to provide an overall complete solution. “The really smart people have realized they have to share a lot of information to make what they do as best as it can possibly be to feed into this supply chain so the end product can be the best it possibly can be. “

Segars gave a tip of the hat to the high costs of building new fabs and to conduct R&D. Earlier in the forum, Samsung’s Ana Hunter put a price tag of a new fab at $7.5 billion. Segars help up EUV as an example. “Before EUV really gets unleashed on the world on a production scale, the R&D costs for EUV will be well over $1 billion.”

The real question though is whether the semiconductor can continue going down the same path given these high costs and approaching physical limits. “We’ve seen over the history of the semiconductor industry the costs of transistors go down, roughly halving about every 18 months for decades. These costs are going non-linear. The concern is that if we are unable to do anything about that, if we’re not able to continue to drive out inefficiencies, then you have to ask yourself the question, ‘Are transistors going to get more expensive?’ If that’s the case, then that really disrupts how the semiconductor industry has evolved for many, many decades,” Segars said.

 Simon Segars joined the board in January 2005 and was appointed EVP and General Manager of the Physical IP Division in September 2007. He has previously been EVP, Engineering, EVP, Worldwide Sales and latterly EVP, Business Development. He joined ARM in early 1991 and has worked on many of the ARM CPU products since then. He led the development of the ARM7 and ARM9 Thumb® families. He holds a number of patents in the field of embedded CPU architectures.

March 26, 2012 — The market for micro electro mechanical systems (MEMS) grew 17% to $10.2 billion in 2011, according to Yole Développement’s latest market analysis. The top 2 suppliers — Texas Instruments (TXN, TI) and STMicroelectronics (STM, ST) — neared $1 billion in sales each. The top 30 companies account for nearly 80% of total MEMS packaged device sales worldwide.

Despite its wide diversity of players and products, MEMS is a very concentrated industry. The four leading integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) — TI, ST, Hewlett Packard and Robert Bosch — together sell some $3.3 billion worth of MEMS devices, accounting for around a third of all MEMS sales worldwide.

Figure. Top 30 MEMS suppliers by 2011 sales. For companies that do not release their MEMS results, Yole estimates sales based on the number of devices sold in the companies’ product markets, the companies’ market share, and the device price based on published prices or reverse engineering studies.

The #1 MEMS supplier, Texas Instruments, is the traditional sector leader. TI’s more mature micro-mirror MEMS business saw modest, single-digit growth.

STMicroelectronics’ motion processing products made gains from the explosive rise in mobile phones. Smart phone demand drove 40% or better growth across a range of sensor suppliers. ST had a 42% jump in MEMS sales last year, taking the #2 spot with more than $900 million in revenues.

Bosch, the #4 supplier in Yole’s top-30 MEMS company ranking, grew in automotive and consumer electronics. Bosch and STMicroelectronics are now the main manufacturers of accelerometers for consumer electronics.

Knowles Electronics moved up to #5 ($362 million) on 40% growth in MEMS microphones.

Magnetometer supplier AKM jumped 46%, to $279 million and #8. Though most magnetometers are not a purely MEMS technology, they are now so closely integrated with accelerometers that Yole tracks them with the MEMS industry.

Fabless InvenSense jumped 67% to $144 million on gyroscope and motion sensing sales. TSMC manufactures the company’s products.

MEMSIC reported 80+% growth thanks to magnetometer and accelerometer sales, to enter the Top 30 ranks at $55 million.

Demand for motion, location, and acoustic sensing in handheld devices will continue to drive rapid growth for MEMS. These mobile applications will change the traditional structure of the industry, outpacing the once-dominant inkjet and micromirror components. High-volume consumer markets select for low cost, reliable high-volume production, fast time to market, and ease-of-use.

Suppliers will move from making separate components to combination sensors and modules as sensor fusion software transforms the sensor data into easy-to-use functions. "Growth is now coming from combos of accelerometers and magnetometers and from combos of accelerometers and gyros, which started to ship in volume last year," said Laurent Robin, Activity Leader, Inertial MEMS Devices & Technologies, Yole. “Companies who make only accelerometers will have to change.”

Yole Développement is a group of companies providing market research, technology analysis, strategy consulting, media in addition to finance services. Learn more at www.yole.fr.

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March 23, 2012 — North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.33 billion in orders in February 2012, $1.32 billion in billings, and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.01, according to SEMI’s February Book-to-Bill Report.

Worldwide bookings totaled $1.33 billion, 12.2% more than the prior month, and 16.5% below the $1.60 billion in orders posted in February 2011.

Worldwide billings hit $1.32 billion, up 6.4% over January, and 28.3% less than the February 2011 billings level of $1.84 billion.

This is the first time North American semiconductor manufacturing equipment suppliers have seen a book-to-bill ratio over parity since September 2010, said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. What’s driving tool spending? "Investments in advanced process technologies for NAND Flash, microprocessors, and foundry," McGuirk said.

Also read: Semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales rose 9% in 2011

The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving averages of worldwide bookings and billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. A book-to-bill of 1.01 means that $101 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars. Source: SEMI March 2012.
  Billings (3-mo. avg) Bookings (3-mo. avg) Book-to-Bill
Sept 2011 1,313.5 926.5 0.71
Oct 2011 1,258.3 926.8 0.74
Nov 2011 1,176.7 977.2 0.83
Dec 2011 1,300.0 1,102.9 0.85
Jan 2012 (final) 1,239.9 1,187.5 0.96
Feb 2012 (prelim) 1,319.3 1,332.7 1.01

The data contained in this release were compiled by David Powell, Inc., an independent financial services firm, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and David Powell, Inc. assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data.

The data are contained in a monthly Book-to-Bill Report published by SEMI. The report tracks billings and bookings worldwide of North American-headquartered manufacturers of equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not billings and bookings of the chips themselves. The Book-to-Bill report is one of three reports included with the Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS).

SEMI is a global industry association serving the nano- and micro-electronic manufacturing supply chains. For more information, visit www.semi.org.

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March 22, 2012 — SensorsCon 2012 was held March 21 at the Santa Clara TechMart Center, in conjunction with the annual meeting of the International Society for Quality Electronic Design (ISQED). This is the first such meeting focusing on sensor technology, with about 60 attendees. As a design conference, the focus was more on system design and architecture rather than on the underlying technology components that I am more accustomed to covering.

MEMS for Internet of Things, mobile personal healthcare
The opening keynote talk was presented by Janusz Bryzek, VP MEMS & Sensor Development at Fairchild Semiconductor, speaking on the emergence of a trillion dollar micro electro mechanical system (MEMS) sensor market. The next generation of Nintendo Wii game controllers will reportedly each contain ~100 MEMS devices to connect gamers with the real world. The MEMS market has reached ~$10 billion, with a 14% 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) — expected to increase to over 50% as new market opportunities are proven. Acceleration of the MEMS R&D cycle will be aided by the development of better software design tools and by the adoption of uniform unit processes.

The much-touted Internet of Things (IoT) would require that internet data transfer capacity grow 1,000x by 2013, to support all of the proposed sensor applications. The ARM Flycatcher, a 1mm2 microcontroller with an average selling price (ASP) of $0.20, is being promoted as the world’s most energy-efficient computer and is targeted at supporting interconnectivity for the IoT.

By 2015, 30% of smart phones are expected to contain a mobile health app, and effectively all smartphones will by 2020. A breath alcohol analyzer app is already on the market for $79. Mobile personal health diagnostics is expected to be a $50B market by 2021.

Sensors in our daily lives
Kevin Shaw, CTO at Sensor Platforms, talked about the myriad ways in which we already interact with sensors every day. Apple’s voice-recognition software Siri represents a high-level integrated sensor system from the automatic activation when you lift the iPhone to your ear to the location-specific speech parsing to interpret and respond to your questions.

Also read: Apple buys most MEMS microphones in 2011

Separating intentional actions from spurious motions is a critical issue for reliable device performance. For example, smartphones contain an optical proximity sensor that works in conjunction with positional sensors to turn off the touch screen when the phone is held up to your ear; thus, “ear dialing” is not a problem. Better solutions are still required to address “butt dialing.” Digital barometers are used for vertical positioning information, with a resolution able to report stairway ascent step by step. Newer phones have three microphones to allow beam steering: the ability to focus on the speaker and cancel extraneous noise.

Crowd sourcing is the use of collective sensor information from multiple users to determine such things as traffic patterns, or the epicenter of an earthquake more quickly and more accurately than the traditional permanent sensors in the ground. The sensors are already widely available on smartphones; what remains is to implement them to their full potential.

Sensor networks
Paul Berenberg of Cubic Global Tracking Solutions spoke on the application of wireless sensor networks to logistics issues, including the thorny security issue of bulk cargo containers. Current systems allow tracking only when they pass through designated reader checkpoints. Real-time continuous container tracking requires a highly reliable secure network with extended battery life regardless of environmental conditions. Such a system uniquely requires a high tolerance for signal congestion, as when many containers are loaded on one ship. The current ceiling seems to be ~10k nodes per network, which is not adequate for large-scale logistics implementation. By the end of this century, global population is predicted to be 10 billion people, each with 100 connections to the IoT. Interested parties are invited to check out the Internet Protocol for Smart Objects (IPSO) alliance at www.ipso-alliance.org.

Terry O’Shea of Intel Labs took us to the edge of the cloud, where he defines Perceptive Edge as the use of untapped capability to interact with our immediate surroundings through sensors connected via cloud computing. Intel’s rapid prototyping platform consists of a suite of modular sensing applications based on existing FCC-approved protocols in conjunction with different physical-sense capabilities. Home energy monitoring can be accomplished with a power line sensor that fingerprints the on/off signature of each household appliance using fast Fourier transform analysis of the power spike it creates. DHS commissioned an airport monitor to sense CO, CO2, NH3 and EtOH that was unexpectedly prone to false positives due to the alcohol content of now-ubiquitous hand sanitizers. Terry’s suggestion regarding IoT is to invest in batteries, rather than routers and electronics, because someone is going to have to change a lot of batteries for all of the IoT sensors.

Qi Chen of Sprint Nextel talked about the security of sensor networks with an eye toward guaranteed delivery of critical alerts using machine-to-machine (M2M) technology. A number of individual components are in concept and feasibility testing now. One less critical application of video face-recognition technology is the ability to track how long people stop to look at a sign or advertisement, and analyze further for gender and approximate age demographics. Location-specific SMS delivery can improve the chances of successful message delivery by keeping track of the receiver’s location to know if it is turned on and is in a good signal area, or if a backup delivery method will be required.

A panel discussion included three of the previous speakers (Bryzek, Shaw, O’Shea) as well as MP Divakar, CEO of Microlytica, a company that provides algorithms for increasing the confidence level in conclusions drawn from IoT sensors. Location- and activity-based advertising is likely to be the next big driver for remote sensing applications, since the market concept brings with it its own development funding source in the advertisers. The question of ethics and privacy issues related to ubiquitous sensing revealed a deep inconsistency between nations and cultures as to what is considered acceptable and what is not. Don’t expect any kind of universal privacy standards to be developed in our lifetime.

The next big app excluding smartphone and health applications include gas monitoring (think homeland security on your cell phone), crowd sensing for weather prediction, and building the infrastructure necessary to support the IoT.

Thomas Watteyne of Dust Networks talked about standards-based reliable wireless sensor networking. Interoperation is being built around IEEE 802.15.4e. Multi-hop network reliability was of particular interest.

William Kao, professor at CalPoly, gave an overview of sensor network elements needed for wireless smart grid and smart city applications. Smart grid is focused on continuity of electrical power distribution. Smart cities hold a promise (or threat) of the integration of security, surveillance, transportation logistics, environmental, industrial, health care and entertainment. Making it easier to find an open parking space may be one of the fringe benefits of such a grand scheme. Broad-scale benefits can be proposed for agriculture as well, such as sensors for precision irrigation, fertilization, and insect infestation. The coming data tsunami became evident once again, requiring not only more bandwidth and system storage, but smarter algorithms for managing data retention and discarding data that has no lasting value.

Medical sensors
Sudhi Gautam, head of Medical Device Solutions for Mphasis, an HP company, discussed the emerging opportunities for sensors in medicine. A critical component of the definition of a medical device is that its function is not dependent on being metabolized; it is an engineering discipline, not a product of chemistry or biology to first order. The band of 400-410MHz has been set aside by the FCC specifically for medical device intercommunication. Endoscopes can today be replaced by a camera pill that can take 57,000 photos as it passes through the entire digestive system in a procedure considerably less invasive than a colonoscopy. I suspect this will eventually result in new posting limits on Snapfish.com.

Michael A. Fury, Ph.D. is director and senior technology analyst at Techcet Group, North Plains, OR.

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March 21, 2012 – Reuters — Taiwan raised investment ceilings for Chinese investors in liquid crystal displays (LCDs), semiconductors, IC assembly and test, microelectronics production equipment, and metal tool manufacturing.

Mainland China companies still cannot hold controlling stakes in these companies in Taiwan, or appointing managers, the government said. But they can hold more than 10% stakes in local companies. All investments must be approved by Taiwan regulators.

This revision also covers makers of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and solar cells, opened to Chinese investment for the first time. Also read: 2011 results for Taiwan’s LED makers and packagers

Read the full report on Taiwan’s investment regulation changes from Argin Chang, Faith Hung, Chris Lewis at Reuters at http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/20/taiwan-china-investment-idUSL3E8EK0RM20120320

In 2011, Taiwan took over as the world leader for installed capacity of semiconductor manufacturing, with 21% of total capacity.

Taiwan also recently re-elected its leader Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT) for a second term. Ma is not expected to make any major economic and regulatory reforms, according to the US-Taiwan Business Council.

Last month, Taiwan’s Ministry of the Interior (MOI) relaxed its conditions for granting multiple-entry visas to mainland Chinese, to make it more convenient for mainland Chinese business people to visit Taiwan and promote business opportunities. Once the new measures are implemented, the number of mainland Chinese business people obtaining multiple-entry visas is expected to double from the current 4,191 to more than 8,000 a year.

March 21, 2012 — Worldwide semiconductor manufacturing equipment spending is projected to total $38.9 billion in 2012, an 11.6% decline from 2011 spending of $44 billion, according to Gartner, Inc.

“Weak market conditions in the second half of 2011 caused pullbacks in expansion plans throughout the semiconductor manufacturing industry,” said Klaus Rinnen, managing vice president at Gartner. “This investment weakness will continue through the first half of 2012 and will surge in the second half of the year. We’re basing these assumptions on the aggressive spending plans announced by the major semiconductor manufacturers. There is a risk that some capacity expansion plans will slip from the second half of 2012 into 2013.”

“Downward pressure on utilization rates is easing, with the result that utilizations will begin to climb upwards again in the second quarter of 2012,” Rinnen said. “Once the supply is balanced, DRAM and foundry manufacturers will need to begin to increase spending to meet an increase in demand, as the PC market rebounds and consumers begin spending as the economy stabilizes.”

Gartner analysts said worldwide semiconductor manufacturing equipment spending will return to double-digit growth in 2013 when spending is projected to total $43 billion, a 10.5% increase from 2012 (see the table). Worldwide semiconductor capital spending is forecast to total $60.9 billion in 2012, down 7.3% from 2011 spending of $65.8 billion in 2011. Capital spending is expected to grow 3.5% in 2013.

Also read: Semiconductor fab equipment spending to hit a record in 2013 from SEMI

Table. Worldwide Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Spending Forecast, 2011-2016 (Millions of Dollars). SOURCE: Gartner, March 2012.

 

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Semiconductor Capital Spending ($M)

65,754.4

60,937.4

63,042.4

66,863.6

62,540.2

67,894.4

Growth

16.3%

-7.3%

3.5%

6.1%

-6.5%

8.6%

Capital Equipment ($M)

44,041.6

38,926.6

43,030.4

46,293.1

42,862.6

46,474.4

Growth

8.4%

-11.6%

10.5%

7.6%

-7.4%

8.4%

Wafer Fab Equipment ($M)

35,822.4

31,289.5

33,487.0

37,100.0

34,090.8

36,542.5

Growth

13.3%

-12.7%

7.0%

10.8%

-8.1%

7.2%

Wafer-Level Packaging and Assembly Equipment ($M)

1,472.7

1,404.9

1,893.7

2,034.1

2,214.0

2,646.9

Growth

17.2%

-4.6%

34.8%

7.4%

8.8%

19.6%

Die-Level Packaging and Assembly Equipment ($M)

4,311.9

3,997.3

4,766.1

4,305.4

3,859.5

4,004.4

Growth

-12.0%

-7.3%

19.2%

-9.7%

-10.4%

3.8%

Automated Test Equipment ($M)

2,434.5

2,234.8

2,883.6

2,853.6

2,698.3

3,280.6

Growth

-14.9%

-8.2%

29.0%

-1.0%

-5.4%

21.6%

Other Spending ($M)

21,712.8

22,010.8

20,012.0

20,570.5

19,677.6

21,420.0

Growth

36.7%

1.4%

-9.1%

2.8%

-4.3%

8.9%

The wafer fab equipment (WFE) market closed out 2011 with spending up 13.3%, based on strong momentum in the first half, however, WFE spending is forecast to decrease 12.7%. WFE spending in 2012 will primarily be on leading-edge technology, as the 20mm and 28/32 nm ramp up.

Gartner analysts said wafer fab manufacturing capacity utilization will decline into the low-80% range by the middle of 2012, before slowly increasing to about 90% by the end of 2012. Leading-edge utilization will return to the low 90% range by the second half of 2012, providing for a positive capital investment environment.

Back-end equipment markets (which include wafer-level packaging and assembly equipment, die-level packaging and assembly equipment, and automated test equipment) will see a modest decline in 2012, but it will be followed by growth and sales of more than $9.5 billion in 2013.

“Above market action in advanced packaging will not be sufficient for a positive growth rate this year, but it will be the driver for growth in 2013,” Rinnen said.

The capital spending forecast estimates total capital spending from all forms of semiconductor manufacturers, including foundries, and back-end assembly and test service companies. This is based on the industry’s requirements for new and upgraded facilities to meet the forecast demand for semiconductor production. Capital spending represents the total amount spent by the industry for equipment and new facilities, as well as the outlay for land, buildings, furnishings, etc… Capital equipment spending includes all equipment needed to process, inspect, and test and package the chip.

This research is produced by Gartner’s Semiconductor Manufacturing program. This research program, which is part of the overall semiconductor research group, provides a comprehensive view of the entire semiconductor industry, from manufacturing to device and application market trends. More information on Gartner’s semiconductor research can be found in the Gartner Semiconductor Manufacturing Focus Area at http://www.gartner.com/technology/core/products/research/markets/semiconductorManufacturing.jsp. Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is a leading information technology research and advisory company.

March 16, 2012 — The new Apple iPad, generation 3, uses a 2048 × 1536, 264 ppi retina display, quadrupling the pixels of the previous generation. However, Apple may be losing its cutting-edge status when it comes to gesture recognition beyond touchscreens. IHS iSuppli, NPD DisplaySearch, and IMS Research examine the new iPad display.

The display technology

Apple’s higher-resolution iPad display relies on super high aperture (SHA) pixel designs — a method of increasing aperture ratio by applying approximately a 3µm thick photo-definable acrylic resin layer to planarize the device and increase the vertical gap between the indium tin oxide (ITO) pixel electrodes and signal lines. This reduces unwanted capacitive coupling and enables the electrode to be extended over the gate and data lines without causing cross talk or affecting image quality, explains NPD DisplaySearch. More than 25% of LCDs adopt SHA technology and that is likely to continue to grow in the future.

Figure. Conventional to SHA Pixel Design Comparison. Source: DisplaySearch TFT LCD Process Roadmap Report. Note: Image refers to VA type SHA pixel.

Suppliers
The iSuppli Displays Materials & Systems Service believes Apple likely has qualified three sources for the display in the new iPad: Samsung, LG Display (LGD), and Sharp, with volume shipments likely only from Samsung in the near term. Although they are currently shipping displays in small quantities, LGD and Sharp are expected to ramp up volume production of new iPad displays in April. SHA technology was pioneered by Sharp and JSR many years ago, NPD DisplaySearch notes. IHS predicts that Apple is likely to begin shipping new iPads with displays from these suppliers in Q2 2012.

Sharp is working with a new indium gallium zinc oxide (IGZO) technology that enables higher resolutions. The company now is working to ramp up the production of IGZO thin-film transistor (TFT) panels at its Gen 8 fab in Kameyama, Japan, but manufacturing problems could affect both the availability of displays for a full rollout of the new iPad, as well as the cost of the iPad displays. LGD has been pioneering the use of advanced in-plane switching (IPS) display technology, particularly in media tablet displays.

Where Apple falls behind in display technology
IMS Research believes Apple will need to embrace embedded vision-based technologies in its next product releases, not incremental technology upgrades as seen in the gen-3 iPad.

Apple is largely credited with bringing touchscreen interaction to the masses thanks to the iPhone. Now, other user interface technologies — particularly gesture recognition, voice commands — are complementing touch interfaces. Competitors such as Samsung and Microsoft have steadily begun integrating these technologies. Yearly worldwide shipments of devices with next-generation user interface technologies will grow to nearly 3.8 billion units in 2015, says IMS Research.

Apple’s competitors are more aggressively deploying camera-based gesture recognition applications, as well as voice control (Apple’s Siri did not get a spot on the new iPad). Microsoft uses gesture control with the Xbox 360 and upcoming Windows 8 laptops and tablets, along with gesture-friendly common interfaces across devices. Microsoft deploys standard or enhanced front-facing cameras for the new gesture-control applications. Android-based smartphones and tablets incorporating gesture control will debut in volume in late 2012.

With aggressive upgrades in processor power in each product generation, Apple seems well-positioned for gesture-based display interfaces. "Vision algorithms require powerful processors. By boosting CPU and GPU performance in the new iPad, Apple is enabling developers to potentially deploy exciting new embedded vision capabilities, such as gesture recognition, augmented reality," and other applications, said Jeff Bier, founder of the Embedded Vision Alliance (www.Embedded-Vision.com).

The "competitive pressure" is now on Apple, with no voice control, embedded vision, particularly gesture recognition, in this iteration of the iPad, said Paul Erickson, senior analyst at IMS Research. "2012 will see a number of advancements from Apple’s competitors" in these areas. Erickson looks to the iPhone 5 launch to bring iOS devices into competitive parity on this front.

Analysts:
IHS iSuppli’s market intelligence helps technology companies achieve market leadership. Access the IHS iSuppli Display Materials & Systems report at http://www.isuppli.com/Display-Materials-and-Systems/Pages/Products.aspx

Learn more in the DisplaySearch TFT LCD Process Roadmap Report at http://www.displaysearch.com/cps/rde/xchg/displaysearch/hs.xsl/tft_lcd_process_roadmap_report.asp

The study “Next Gen User Interfaces: Touch, Gesture, Motion, and Voice – 2012 Edition” offers a current analysis of the technologies transforming the human-machine-computer interface. IMS Research is a leading independent supplier of market research and consultancy to the global electronics industry. Internet: http://imsresearch.com.

Visit our new Displays Manufacturing Channel!

March 16, 2012 — The Great East Japan Earthquake, March 11, 2011 off Sendai, was "a Darwinian event" for the micro electro mechanical systems (MEMS) market, says IHS. The MEMS supply chain came out of the disaster much richer, more diverse, and better positioned for growth, shows the IHS iSuppli MEMS & Sensors Service.

Also read: Japan 1 year after the earthquake: Supply chain lessons
 
The majority of MEMS operations in Japan escaped damage, but the global business impact of the earthquake was significant, said Richard Dixon, principal analyst for MEMS & sensors at IHS. In light of the threat of supply disruptions, some MEMS buyers diversified their supplier bases, reducing reliance on a small pool of sole sources in Japan, he added. The result? A more secure supply chain, and new opportunities for MEMS suppliers globally.

Japan accounted for about 33% of global MEMS sensor market revenue at the time of the earthquake last year. Despite this, only 5 MEMS-related production facilities were directly affected, located in the northeast of the country (see map): Freescale Semiconductor’s accelerometer facility in Sendai; Canon’s MEMS printhead fab in Fukushima; Texas Instruments’ DLP wafer site in Miho; Seiko Epson’s printhead, gyroscope and microphone fab in Sakata; and Micronics Japan Corp.’s MEMS wafer probe operations.

Map. Locations of major MEMS and digital compass fabs in Japan. SOURCE: IHS iSuppli March 2012.

Knowles Acoustics is one example of the supply chain strengthening that took place after Japan’s quake. Last year, Knowles shipped 41% of all microphones — MEMS and others — for cellphones. The company had a single MEMS supplier for its advanced microphones, despite several years using MEMS technology, foundry partner Sony Kyushu in Japan. No other MEMS supplier could have met Knowles’ volume needs if Sony Kyushu had been damaged in the quake (The fab, located on Japan’s southern island of Kyushu, was not damaged).

With the supply chain threat recognized, Knowles is now looking to diversify its MEMS supply base and add an additional source, according to IHS iSuppli information. With two sources, Knowles is likely to attract more cellphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), securing more business alongside a more reliable supply chain.

Another example of supply chain concentration was the concentration (97%) in Japan of digital compass production. The total market for electronic compasses was $400+ million in 2011, with the majority coming from 4 Japanese companies: AKM, Yamaha, Aichi Steel and ALPS. If any of the 4 companies’ fabs had been quake-affected, the digital compass supply would have severely faltered. Three of the four plants are located furthest south on the island of Kyushu, including AKM, the largest supplier with 70% market share in 2011. AKM has a general policy of mitigating risk by employing multiple suppliers.

Certain sensor suppliers for automotive applications had a more difficult time following the quake. An estimated 24% of the global automotive MEMS sensors market comes from Japanese companies. The biggest suppliers in this area are Denso and Panasonic. Denso, which makes accelerometers and pressure sensors for Honda and Toyota, showed a Q2 2011 shortfall of $850 million, although it completely recovered in the subsequent quarter.

OEMs like Toyota, Honda and Nissan did an amazing job of damage containment by finding new sources and mitigating the disruptions caused by the earthquake or associated infrastructure-related events like blackouts. Unfortunately, Japanese automotive OEMs were also hit by the Thailand floods in November 2011, impacting much of the resourcing work up to that point.

IHS iSuppli MEMS & Sensors Service can be accessed at http://www.isuppli.com/MEMS-and-Sensors/Pages/Products.aspx. IHS iSuppli’s market intelligence helps technology companies achieve market leadership.

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March 15, 2012 — VLSIresearch released its 2011 Top Semiconductor Equipment suppliers rankings, noting important acquisitions and strong spending in lithography tools in 2011. Semiconductor equipment spending was driven by aggressive capacity expansion in the foundry and logic sectors, mostly driven by mobile device production.

Also read: Semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales rose 9% in 2011

Capacity expansions in the memory sector were limited; strong pricing pressure reduced profitability for memory suppliers, prohibiting expansion.

Table. 2011 top semiconductor equipment suppliers (Worldwide sales, semiconductor equipment and service, $M). SOURCE: VLSIresearch inc Chip Market Research Services.
2011
rank
Location Company 2011 sales
1 EU ASML 7877.1
2 NA Applied Materials* 7437.8
3 JA Tokyo Electron 6203.3
4 NA KLA-Tencor 3106.2
5 NA Lam Research 2804.1
6 JA Dainippon Screen Mfg. Co. 2104.9
7 JA Nikon Corporation 1645.5
8 JA Advantest** 1446.7
9 EU ASM International 1443.0
10 NA Novellus Systems 1318.7
11 JA Hitachi High-Technologies 1138.7
12 NA Teradyne 1106.2
13 NA Varian Semiconductor Equipment*** 1096.3
14 JA Hitachi Kokusai Electric 838.4
15 NA Kulicke & Soffa 780.9
Total top 15   40347.7
Year-over-year
growth
  13%
* Applied Materials (AMAT) includes Varian revenues for Nov 1 to Dec 31, 2011.
** Advantest includes Verigy’s revenues from July 1 to Dec 31, 2011.
*** Varian includes revenues as an independent company from Jan 1 to Oct 31, 2011.
(2011 Exchange rates).

Lithography spending enabled ASML to become the largest equipment supplier. ASML and fellow lithography equipment supplier Nikon grew 27% combined. Overall, the top 15 semiconductor equipment suppliers grew 13% in 2011.

Mergers & acqusitions: Advantest closed the Verigy acquisition in July; Applied Materials acquired Varian Semiconductor in November.

Japanese equipment suppliers recorded higher than average growth rates, with Advantest out front with 28% sales increase in 2011. Advantest saw the large increase thanks to its Verigy acquisition, and strong SOC test equipment sales in North America.

VLSIresearch inc provides market research and economic analysis on the technical, business, and economic aspects within nanotechnology and related industries. Website: http://www.vlsiresearch.com.

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March 15, 2012 – BUSINESS WIRE — Smartphone owners in the US and UK would like larger displays than they currently have, shows the Strategy Analytics Wireless Device Lab report, “Smartphone Owners Want Thin Devices with Larger Displays.” Smartphone users responded to a survey, stating a desire for 4"-4.5" displays, if the device remained thin.

Women are more likely to use a smaller-display smartphone than men. Android owners are more likely to seek larger devices than users currently on an Apple iPhone. But nearly 90% of the surveyed users gravitated to prototype smartphones with a display larger than their current device, said Paul Brown, a Director in the Strategy Analytics User Experience Practice. Reasons for larger-display smartphone appeal include increased mobile web browsing and engaging video and gaming experiences.

The larger displays are only attractive if they do not add too much weight or bulk to the handset, added Kevin Nolan, VP for the User Experience Practice at Strategy Analytics.

Strategy Analytics, Inc. provides market intelligence focused on Automotive Electronics and Entertainment, Broadband Connected Home, Mobile & Wireless Intelligent Systems and Virtual Worlds. For more information, please visit http://www.strategyanalytics.com/

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