Tag Archives: We Recommend

January 16, 2012 — Taiwan became the region with the largest share of installed wafer capacity in 2011, according to IC Insights’ Global Wafer Capacity 2011-12 report. This is the first time Taiwan has led the global wafer capacity rankings, with 21% of total in mid-2011.

Each regional number is the total installed monthly capacity of semiconductor fabs in that region, regardless of the headquarters location for the companies that own the fabs.

Top 5 regions, installed wafer processing capacity:

  1. Taiwan: 21%
  2. Japan: 19.7%
  3. Korea: 16.8%
  4. The Americas: 14.7%
  5. China: 8.9%

Figure. Installed wafer fab capacity (K w/m) in global regions (based on where the capacity is installed, not where the parent company is headquartered), July 2011.

Note: Rest of world (ROW) is primarily Singapore, Israel, Malaysia, also including Russia, Belarus, India, South Africa, and Australia.

Taiwan is not only the largest wafer processing region, but it also has the largest share of 300mm capacity.  In 2011, Taiwan held 25.4% share of worldwide 300mm wafer capacity, 18.7% of 200mm wafer capacity, and 11.4% of 150mm wafer capacity. 300mm wafers represent 64.6% of the country’s installed capacity; 200mm wafers are 29.2%; 150mm wafers accounted for 6.1%.

Taiwan also leads the industry with capacity dedicated to "not so leading-edge" 40nm-60nm process geometries. Taiwan focuses on providing foundry services to various fabless IC suppliers, fab-lite IDMs, and electronic system producers.

Taiwan re-elected its leader Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang (KMT) for a second term this week. Ma is not expected to make any major economic and regulatory reforms, according to the US-Taiwan Business Council.

IC Insights also notes in the research that China accounts for more wafer capacity than all of Europe. Nearly all of the installed wafer fab capacity (80%+) is in the top 5 regions.

Also read: Semiconductor fab capex forecast for 2012

Detailed analysis and a forecast of the IC industry’s wafer fab capacity through 2016 is provided in the 2011-12 edition of IC Insights’ Global Wafer Capacity report.

Published in November 2011, the Global Wafer Capacity 2011-2012 report features IC wafer capacity analyses and forecasts through 2016. View http://www.icinsights.com/services/global-wafer-capacity/ for more information. IC Insights Inc. provides high-quality, cost-effective market research for the semiconductor industry.

Subscribe to Solid State Technology

January 12, 2012 — OSRAM Opto Semiconductors manufactured high-performance 1mm2 blue and white light emitting diode (LED) prototypes, growing the light-emitting gallium-nitride (GaN) layers on 150mm silicon (Si) wafers rather than sapphire substrates.

OSRAM’s researchers report no loss of LED quality in the pilot run. The blue UX:3 chips in OSRAM’s standard Golden Dragon Plus package achieve 634mW brightness at 3.15V, equivalent to 58% efficiency; white LEDs, using a conventional phosphor converter in a standard housing, showed 140lm at 350mA with an efficiency of 127lm/W at 4500K. The new LED chips are being tested under practical conditions, and OSRAM LEDs-on-Si could hit the market in as little as two years.

Figure 1. The production of a UX:3 chip on a silicon wafer. SOURCE: OSRAM.

Silicon offers a lower-cost alternative to sapphire substrates, and silicon wafer processing in larger diameters is already widespread in the semiconductor market, potentially enabling large-volume LED fabrication. New chip technology, production processes, and housing technologies will enable a switch to silicon-based LED manufacturing, said Dr. Peter Stauss, project manager at OSRAM Opto Semiconductors. Today, LED makers can fabricate over 17,000 1mm2 LED chips on a 150mm wafer. Larger silicon wafers could increase productivity even more; researchers have demonstrated the first structures on 200mm substrates.

Also read: Bridgelux fundraises for GaN-on-Si LED ramp and Integrating photonics: Hitachi, Oki put LEDs on silicon

Figure 2. OSRAM high-performance LED chips based on InGaN technology today are fabricated on 6" wafers. SOURCE: OSRAM.

Lowering component costs while maintaining quality and performance [of sapphire-based LEDs] opens up the lighting application sector, said Stauss.

OSRAM Opto Semiconductors has acquired comprehensive expertise over the last 30 years in the process of artificial crystal growth (epitaxy), the foundation for this milestone in the development of new manufacturing technologies. The German Federal Ministry of Education and Research funds these activities as part of its “GaNonSi” project network.

OSRAM AG (Munich, Germany) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Siemens AG and a leading light manufacturer. Its subsidiary, OSRAM Opto Semiconductors GmbH, offers semiconductor-technology-based products for lighting, sensor and visualization applications. For more information, go to www.osram-os.com.

Visit the new LEDs Manufacturing Channel on ElectroIQ.com!

January 11, 2012 — Worldwide light emitting diode (LED) manufacturing capacity will reach 2 million wafers in 2012 (4" equivalent per month), a 27% increase over 2011. More wafers do not neccessarily mean more LED fab equipment, however. Global LED manufacturing equipment spending will fall 18% from "massive" numbers in 2011, shows SEMI’s Opto/LED FabWatch and Forecast.

2012 will be the first time in over 5 years when overall LED equipment spending decreases — blame a 40% decline in metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) tool purchases. Spending for non-MOCVD LED fab equipment — lithography, etch, test and packaging tools — will increase in 2012, as manufacturers optimize their production lines and improve product designs. "Future equipment and capital spending will drive LED cost reduction through larger wafers, automation, and dedicated equipment specifically designed to improve to LED manufacturing yield and throughput," said Tom Morrow, EVP, Emerging Markets Group, SEMI.

SEMI recorded 29 new LED fabs in 2011. For 2012, SEMI forecasts 16 new fabs coming on-line.   

Regional equipment spending shows China holding the lead with an expected $719 million planned for 2012, followed by Taiwan ($321M), Japan ($300M) and Korea ($260M). Taiwan will continue to lead in capacity at 25% of the world LED capacity, followed by China (22%).

LED makers have seen several years of rapid capacity expansion, driven by TV backlighting demand for high-brightness light-emitting diodes (HB-LEDs), as well as government incentives and economic development funding in China. HB-LEDs used in liquid crystal display (LCD) TV backlighting units (approximately 40% of the total HB-LED market) failed to reach growth expectations in 2011. Growth targets were missed for total TV unit sales, and for LED penetration into LCD TVs.

HB-LED demand continues to grow in solid state lighting. LEDs used in solid state lighting, currently totaling approximately $2.5 billion, may exceed $30 billion by 2020, according to many estimates. LED manufacturing capacity and technology investments will correspond, long-term, with demand for key applications: primarily solid state lighting, said Morrow, who added that this mirrors other microelectronics industries.

Looking at the back-end of the LED market, the recent Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook by SEMI and TechSearch Inc. shows very strong growth in LED leadframe shipments. Following the 69% unit shipment growth in 2010, LED leadframe shipments are estimated to have increased by another 10% in 2011. In 2012, shipments are forecasted to reach almost 83 billion units. Data are based on shipments reported by sixteen leadframe suppliers.

Table. Estimated LED leadframe units shipped globally (in billions of units).
2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F
35.7 39.5 66.9 73.6 82.7

 

The SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast tracks over 250 Opto/LED fabs activities worldwide, with detailed information on fab construction and equipment spending, key milestone dates, capacity and ramp up schedule, and more. For more information, visit: www.semi.org/en/Store/MarketInformation/OptoLEDFabForecast.

SEMI is a global industry association serving the nano- and microelectronics manufacturing supply chains. For more information, visit www.semi.org.

Visit the new LEDs Manufacturing Channel on ElectroIQ.com!

January 11, 2012 — Increased I/O density on chips, power/performance requirements, yield/cost requirements and form factor constraints (mobile) are coming to push increased use of flip chip, 2.5D and 3D technologies. This trend benefits the packaging subcontractors in the semiconductor industry, argues Credit Suisse Taiwan Analyst Randy Abrams, as outsourcing rises.

Larger packaging subcontractors, like Amkor (AMKR), ASE, and SPIL, will take market share from smaller sub-contractors, Credit Suisse predicts. Large packaging houses like Amkor have invested in 3D packaging technologies, such as through silicon via (TSV) fabrication, silicon interposers, etc. They are also well-positioned for an industry shift occuring from wire bonding to flip chip, which enables higher I/O density.

Credit Suisse reports that the flip-chip trend has led to under-utilization of traditional wirebonder assets. Even if these assets are fully depreciated, they often carry fixed costs (labor, overhead). Amkor is responding to this trend by trying to penetrate the NAND market for wirebonding. It also is in talks to purchase old packaging assets from Toshiba. ASE and SPIL are migrating their capacity aggressively from gold to copper wire. ASE is also courting Japanese IDMs to outsource their discrete low-pin count in-sourced packaging needs.

The packaging houses will need to watch for foundry TSMC, which has made special references to chip on wafer on silicon (CoWoS) in its last earnings call, Credit Suisse notes. ElectroIQ.com contributor Dr. Phil Garrou reports that TSMC pushes for a pure foundry model for 2.5 and 3DIC — quoting Doug Yu, senior director of integrated interconnect, TSMC who said that TSMC was readying to take on full beginning-to-end interposer manufacturing. Read Garrou’s TSMC repeats call for foundry-centric 2.5/3D industry. Credit Suisse asserts that fabless chip companies may prefer the packaging houses over a foundry-based 3D packaging model, and companies will leverage various chip and foundry suppliers for the best commercial position, mixing and matching chips in 3D packages.

Other than the foundry encroachment, semiconductor assembly & test service (SATS) providers need to watch out for cyclical weakness in semiconductors, due to the inventory correction in H2 2011, Credit Suisse points out. Improving cyclical momentum through the year will improve absorption of wirebonder capacity discussed above, the analysts note.

Learn more about Credit Suisse at www.credit-suisse.com/global/en/.
 
Subscribe to Solid State Technology/Advanced Packaging

Follow Advanced Packaging on Twitter.com by clicking www.twitter.com/advpackaging. Or join our Facebook group

January 10, 2012 — Semiconductor fab equipment spending is expected to decline by approximately 11% in 2012 to $35 billion, according to preliminary data from the SEMI World Fab Forecast report. Spending on fab equipment will drop in the H1 2012, but will sharply increase in H2, bringing capital expenditure near to $10 billion by the fourth quarter.

Fab spending will remain higher than 2010 levels, despite the dip from last year’s $39 billion. Worldwide, Korea is the only region expected to show growth in fab equipment spending in 2012, mainly due to expected spending by Samsung. The forecast relies heavily on capex plans at industry heavyweights. Samsung, Hynix, Intel, and TSMC, among others, could spend more than anticipated. A best-case scenario would be -4% capex from 2011.

SEMI expects 2007, 2011, and 2012 to be the three highest fab spending years on record.   

Figure. Fab equipment spending. SOURCE: SEMI World Fab Forecast November 2011 edition.

The SEMI World Fab Forecast tracks installed capacity by fab, showing changes when fabs close and when product type or wafer size change. Despite the economic situation, 300mm installed capacity is expected to grow at a steady pace in 2012. In 2011, the installed capacity for 300mm grew by about 13% (YoY). The forecast anticipates a small slow down to about 11% in 2012 and increasing to about 12-14% in 2013.

Table. Fab spending by semiconductor companies, by region. SOURCE: SEMI World Fab Forecast November 2011 edition.

The SEMI World Fab Forecast uses a bottom-up approach methodology, providing high-level summaries and graphs; and in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab. Additionally, the database provides forecasts for the next 18 months by quarter. Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: http://www.semi.org/MarketInfo/FabDatabase.

SEMI’s Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses. The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment. SEMI is the global industry association serving the nano- and microelectronics manufacturing supply chains. For more information, visit www.semi.org.

Subscribe to Solid State Technology

January 5, 2012 — Barclays Capital forecasts 2012 as a "subdued year" for the light-emitting diode (LED) industry, plagued by overcapacity, average selling price (ASP) pressures, and only gradual growth in LED lighting demand.

Metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) tool demand will decrease from around 700 systems in 2011 to about 400 in 2012 and 440 in 2013. Depite the lack of an overall MOCVD tool replacement cycle, there is some economic support for pulling out very early generation, fully depreciated MOCVD tools (e.g. Veeco’s E-300 and K-300, Aixtron’s CCS and G3) and replacing them with the latest Maxbrights and CRIUS II-XL, Barclays predicts, adding that makers in Korea and Taiwan have been seen making this switch.

Also read: LED fab trends: Capex decline, cost-effective fab key

Tool utilization levels at Korean fabs are hovering between 50 and 60%. Utilization in Taiwan facilities is between 50 and 70%; Chinese LED makers are using less than 30% of capacity, Barclays estimates. Utilization levels at Tier 1 LED makers — Cree, OSRAM, and Lumileds — appear to be higher at ~70-80%.

Top 10 LED themes of 2012, from Barclays Capital:

1) MOCVD tool upgrades could add an incremental revenue stream for equipment suppliers, despite weak capital expenditures from LED makers. The revenue opportunity for upgrades ranges from ~$200K for simple upgrades to ~$1.5M if the customer is reconfiguring the tool and changing the gas chambers.

2) MOCVD tool replacement is unlikely to grow. Gradual improvements in LED fab yields, coupled with slow-growing end-market demand, will delay large-scale expansions. Used/unpackaged tools remain unattractive to Tier 1 and 2 LED makers, though some MOCVD equipment vendors will work with key customers on refurbishing such tools, pulling out contaminated parts, upgrading them, and again placing them under warranty.

3) Gallium nitride (GaN)/Silicon carbide (SiC) power electronics will be a small, growing application for MOCVD equipment. STMicroelectronics (STM), Infineon, Analog Devices and other analog names are buying tools from AIXTRON and Veeco. See also: Power semiconductors to see modest growth in 2012

4) Despite entries from Applied Materials (AMAT counts Samsung, Silan, Toshiba, TSMC, Micron, and IMEC among its MOCVD customers), Chinese companies, and others, the main MOCVD tool suppliers will remain AIXTRON and Veeco, with 90% of the MOCVD market. These 2 will see a boost from the upgrades mentionned in #1.

5) M&A potential exists for the tool makers, though Barclays suggests AMAT is not able to swallow up any large LED tool providers due to its semiconductor-space acquisition, VSEA, of 2011.

6) Incandescent bulb bans will be instated in the US and Europe, though this is not likely to drive 2012 demand, given the available stock of incandescents remaining. LED bulbs will really catch on in Japan.

7) LED component/luminaire price declines will make the payback period for non-residential projects much more attractive. Barclays estimates that LED chip/component ASPs declined 30-40% in 2011, depending on the applications.

8) China LED demand growth will likely fall in-line with the overall market, despite possible government subsidies. There is no sign yet of the speculated 8B Yuan subsidy from the central government being deployed.

9) LED lighting penetration will steadily ramp, with the associated revenue growth for LED component suppliers being more muted due to ASP pressure.

10) China will continue to lag on the LED manufacturing quality front; Korea will make more noticeable advances. The quality of LED output from Chinese players continues to trail the Tier 1 LED makers by several years. Output from the Korean LED suppliers — Samsung, Seoul Semi, LG Innotek — has been improving, reports Barclays. Given Samsung and LG’s vertical integration and aggressive push downstream, they could be meaningful threats to the traditional Tier 1 LED makers Cree, Osram, Nichia, and Lumileds.

January 4, 2012 — Recent advances in micro electro mechanical system (MEMS) sensor technology and manufacturing have enabled high-performance, small, low-cost sensors. These attributes encourage integration into handheld devices, including smart phones and tablets. Features such as interrupts and first-in/first-out (FIFO) functions have been integrated into MEMS sensors. The new trend is to integrate multiple sensors and a microcontroller in a tiny single package with embedded algorithms. Some of the smart features built into digital MEMS inertial sensors available on the market today are explained here, with an overview of future trends of sensor integration.

Each MEMS sensor comprises the MEMS sensing structure, an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), and device package. The sensing structure is responsible for detecting capacitance or resistance change when the proof mass moves from the center position due to external motion or applied force [1]. The ASIC consists of a charge amplifier to convert the output of the mechanical sensing part into an analog output voltage that can be digitized through an A/D convertor and presented in a digital format. The package, in addition to housing the sensing and processing die, influences device performance, defining stability over temperature and time.

Figure 1 shows the typical internal structure of a MEMS accelerometer and a gyroscope as an example based on the capacitive principle technology.

Figure 1. Structure inside a MEMS accelerometer and gyroscope.

The host processors in smart systems, e.g., smart phones and tablets, have limited resources for sensor data acquisition and processing. Therefore, MEMS sensors need to include more computing power and embedded features to reduce the load of the host processors.

Embedded features

Self-test. Most MEMS sensors have built-in self-test (BIST). The self-test can be used to verify if the sensor is functioning or not after PCB assembly. This functional test (FT) doesn’t require physically tilting or rotating the PCB for inertial sensors.

Figure 2 shows an example self-test procedure for accelerometers and gyroscopes. The sensor data acquisition when self-test is enabled and disabled should be performed at the same arbitrary and stationary position.

Figure 2. Self test procedure for digital accelerometer and gyroscope.

Interrupt feature. Most MEMS sensors have one or two interrupt output pins available for connecting to the GPIO ports of the host processor. The host processor is not required to keep acquiring sensor data to determine the device’s current status; the sensor is running in the background. When the predefined criteria are met, the sensor will generate an interrupt signal on its output pin to notify the host processor. The host processor can then decide if this interrupt needs to be serviced or not.

FIFO feature. FIFO is another power-saving feature that can be implemented in ASICs. The host processor doesn’t need to acquire sensor data all the time. Instead, the sensor can collect data and store it into the FIFO in the background.

When the FIFO interrupts are generated, the host processor can wake up and read all FIFO data samples at once. Then the host processor can process the sensor data to see if further action needs to be taken.

Sensor integration trends

As some interrupt features embedded in an accelerometer cannot distinguish fake motion from the real one, the processor needs to acquire sensor data to determine the nature of the motion. Future smart sensors will have more advanced computing power such as finite state machine (FSM) for reliable interrupt generation.

A low-power microcontroller can be integrated into an inertial module unit to run the sensor fusion algorithms so that the final dynamic accurate pitch/roll/yaw angles can be available to the host processor directly [2].

With respect to the applications such as 3D gaming, indoor pedestrian dead reckoning, etc., 9- or 10-axis sensors are required. In the future, such MEMS sensors and the programmable microcontroller will be combined into a single package as shown in Fig. 3. The wireless link and some other sensors may be integrated in the same package too.

Figure 3. Multiple sensors integrated in one package.

Conclusion

Embedded features and computing power are required for future sensors and embedded features and sensor integration will determine the future applications of MEMS sensors. A dedicated microcontroller is needed to handle the complex algorithms of sensor fusion.

Driven by MEMS technology and market needs, the multiple sensors with lower power consumption and low-cost microcontroller in one package will appear soon.

References:

1. J. Esfandyari et al., Introduction to MEMS gyroscopes, November 2010, http://www.electroiq.com/articles/stm/2010/11/introduction-to-mems-gyroscopes.html.

2. J. Esfandyari et al., “Solutions for MEMS sensor fusion,” Solid State Technology, Volume 54, Issue 7, July 2011, http://www.electroiq.com/articles/sst/print/volume-54/issue-7/features/cover-article/solutions-for-mems-sensor-fusion.html.

Jay Esfandyari received his Master’s Degree and Ph.D. in EE from the University of Technology in Vienna and is MEMS Product Marketing Manager at STMicroelectronics, 750 Canyon Dr., Coppell, TX, 75019 USA; ph.: 972-971-4969; [email protected].

Fabio Pasolini received his Engineering Degree at the University of Pavia, Italy, in 1994 and is the General Manager of the Motion MEMS at STMicroelectronics.

Gang Xu received his Ph. D from Shanghai Jiao Tong University and is Senior Application Engineer at STMicroelectronics.

View recent issues of the MEMS Direct newsletter

January 4, 2012 — Chip inventories held by semiconductor suppliers declined in the third quarter of 2011, putting a halt to the steady expansion of the previous seven quarters, as the industry cut production in order to reduce oversupply, shows IHS iSuppli research.

As calculated by days of inventory (DOI), semiconductor stockpiles in the third quarter stood at 81 days, down 2.5% from 83 days in Q2, according to an IHS iSuppli Inventory Insider report.

 

  Q3 ’09 Q4 ’09 Q1 ’10 Q2 ’10 Q3 ’10 Q4 ’10   Q1 ’11  Q2 ’11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ’11 (est.)
DOI 65 67 69 73 73 77 80 83 81 79.3
Figure. Worldwide days of inventory (DOI) held by semiconductor suppliers. Source: IHS iSuppli Research, January 2012. See Q1’s report. See Q2’s report.

DOI had been increasing since Q3 2009, rising from 65 days. Late 2009 inventories were low due to the production cuts implemented during the recession. DOI crept upwards in efforts to replenish depleted stocks and meet growing demand. Recent weakness identified in the semiconductor market has made inventory levels a concern, notes IHS. Global semiconductor revenue in 2011 rose by 1.9% over 2010, well below the 7% forecast early in the year.

"For the third quarter, semiconductor suppliers began an inventory correction to alleviate an escalating oversupply situation on top of already inflated stockpiles," said Sharon Stiefel, semiconductor analyst at IHS. "With the global economy all but stalled, and in the face of declining orders as well as decreased visibility, many semiconductor manufacturers opted to reduce capacity utilization. And with lead times now declining to normal levels after extended periods of waiting in the past, manufacturers were more confident about trimming bloated inventories this time around without fear of causing too much pain to the supply chain."

Also read: More IC pessimism: Semi inventories "worrisome," says Gartner

Despite the inventory cutback, DOI in the third quarter remained elevated in absolute terms — the highest of the last 10 quarters (back to Q4 2008). The percentage of oversupply during the period rose to 12.1%, exceeding the 11.1% spike in oversupply during Q4 2008. Further inventory trimming is expected in Q4 2011, falling to 79.3 days (2.5% decline).

Inventory levels rose for handset OEMs (holiday season), distributors, and analog companies. Stockpiles fell for fabless semiconductor makers, memory suppliers, foundries (reduced capacity utilization rates), PC OEMs, storage gear companies and electronic manufacturing services providers.

Access the IHS iSuppli report, Inventories in the Semiconductor Supply Chain Finally Begin to Decline in Q3, at http://www.isuppli.com/Semiconductor-Value-Chain/Pages/Inventories-in-the-Semiconductor-Supply-Chain-Finally-Begin-to-Decline-in-Q3.aspx

Subscribe to Solid State Technology

January 4, 2012 — Tablet PCs are taking over turf in the mobile PC market, making up 25.5% of the sector with shipments of 72.7 million units in 2011, according to the latest NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report. Overall mobile PC shipments in 2011 are projected to reach 285.4 million units, up 31% over 2010.

Year-over-year (Y/Y) growth will hit 256% in 2011 for tablets, thanks to strong demand in Q3 and Q4 and a combination of vigorous demand for incumbent devices and competitive new devices hitting the market. Additional distribution channels were also a factor. Tablet PC shipments will be driven by increasingly powerful multi-core processors, mature operating systems, growing application libraries, and higher resolution panels. NPD DisplaySearch forecasts that tablet PCs with 250 to 300 pixel per inch panels will make up nearly 25% of shipments in 2012.

Notebook PC shipments in 2011 are now expected to reach 187.5 million units, up 12% Y/Y, but slightly less than NPD DisplaySearch’s previous forecast of 188 million. Mini-note PC shipments are expected to reach 25.2 million units, up 20% Y/Y.

Notebook PC shipments will bounce back in the long term, thanks to declining average selling prices (ASPs), predicts Richard Shim, senior analyst at NPD DisplaySearch. The mobile-optimized Windows 8 operating system and new Intel chips, as well as new form factors, such as ultrabooks, will also influence buyers. By 2017, notebook PC shipments are forecast to reach 432 million units, and tablet PC shipments are projected to reach 383.3 million units.

Figure 1. 2011-2017 mobile PC shipments by form factor (millions). Source: Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report.

Mobile PC shipments into emerging regions are growing, with 2011 shipments projected to be 138 million units, up 48% Y/Y, and increasing to 452.8 million by 2017. Mobile PC shipments into mature regions are estimated to reach 147.5 million units in 2011 and grow to 371.6 million units by 2017.  

Ultrabooks are an emerging form factor that is expected to contribute to demand in later years of the forecast. Demand for ultrabooks will be driven by consumer interest in sleek design and convenience like instant-on and long battery life. For the next two years, these devices’ premium price points will temper demand, and there may be some supply limitations in production of displays thin enough for Ultrabooks.

Figure 2. 2011-2017 ultrabook PC shipment forecast (millions). Source: Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report.

Also read: MEMS win, DRAM lose in ultrabook designs

The NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report covers the entire range of mobile PC products shipped worldwide and regionally. With analysis of global and regional brands, the Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report provides an objective, expert view of the market with insight into historical shipments, revenues, forecasts and more. NPD DisplaySearch is a global market research and consulting firm specializing in the display supply chain, as well as the emerging photovoltaic/solar cell industries. For more information on NPD DisplaySearch analysts, reports and industry events, visit us at http://www.displaysearch.com/.

January 3, 2012 — With consumers’ TV demand softening as the CRT-to-FPD transition tails off and mature markets around the world, bigger panel TVs (40" and greater) will grow 12% in 2012, while those smaller will fall off by 3%, shows NPD DisplaySearch. Overall, TV shipments will grow 2% this year.

Consumer demand for TVs was softer than expected in 2011, but showed signs of improvement late in the year. However, inventory pressure plagued the industry through much of early 2011 and led to a sharp reduction in shipments to retailers. The result is that global TV unit shipments are expected to rise only 0.1% in 2011. According to the latest forecast released in the NPD DisplaySearch Advanced Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report, growth is expected to improve in 2012, rising 2% to 254 million units.

“Global economic conditions have improved in 2011, but more slowly than expected, and consumers in mature TV markets like Europe face continuing uncertainty, which is leading to very cautious spending patterns,” noted Paul Gagnon, Director of North America TV Research for NPD DisplaySearch. Gagnon added, “Because price reductions are not as vigorous as a few years ago, partially due to a mature manufacturing base but also because of transitions to advanced features like LED backlights and 3D, consumers are becoming more willing to wait for peak sale periods to purchase.”

Flat panel TV continues to grow, but at a more gradual pace of 2-4% per year as the rapid transition from CRT to LCD and plasma nears an end. LCD TV continues to be the dominant technology on a unit and revenue basis, and in fact seems likely to capture even more market share due to a weaker outlook for plasma TV going forward. As LCD narrows the pricing gap with plasma at many sizes, the demand for plasma has fallen; NPD DisplaySearch expects this to continue and has reduced its forecast for plasma TV.

Also read: Scaling and complexity drive LCD yield strategies

Large TV sizes also continue to show strong growth, with shipments of 40"+ and larger sets expected to grow 12% in 2012 while <40" sizes decline 3%. A strong contributing factor to the growth of larger sizes, including an 18% increase in shipments of 50"+ sets, is pricing. Sizes up to 50" will have average prices below $1000 in 2012 and even 60"+ sizes will fall below $2000 for the first time. During Black Friday (after Thanksgiving in November) holiday sales in the US, many 40-47" sets were below $500, and even 60" sets fell below $1000, prompting robust unit sales. Many consumers seem to be willing to give up features in favor of larger sizes for a given TV buying budget. Even in China, shipment share of 50"+ and larger sizes is growing strongly and may become the only region outside of North America to reach 10% 50"+ mix of unit shipments by 2015.

LCD TV shipments will rise from 206M units in 2011 to 225M units in 2012, an increase of 9%. LCD will account for more than 82% of all global TV shipments in 2011, rising to more than 88% in 2012, as demand for plasma falls and OLED TVs arrive late in the year in small quantities and at high prices. LCD is now a strong competitive technology at all sizes and should climb to more than 95% share by 2014 as CRT fades and OLED is slow to grow.

Premium features continue to grow, like LED backlights and 3D, and are keeping LCD TV average prices very stable, falling just 6% Y/Y on a volume weighted basis in 2011, the slowest year of LCD TV price erosion yet. Price erosion will be about the same in 2012 before picking up to 7-8% per year through 2015, but much less than the 24% decline seen in 2009. However, with the slower ASP erosion, total LCD TV revenue growth should remain positive through 2013 at 1-3% per year. The share of LED backlights in LCD TV shipments is expected to be about 46% in 2011, rising to nearly 68% in 2012. 3D will account for around 3% of LCD TV units this year.

Plasma TV units grew 30% in 2010 due to a favorable pricing advantage over LCD, but as that advantage has narrowed in 2011, shipments are expected to fall 11%, to 16.3 million units. The decline in unit growth and weak profits have led manufacturers to focus on more profitable segments, even at the expense of unit growth. As a result, plasma TV shipments are projected to fall to less than 10 million units by 2015.

The first OLED TV shipments are expected in the second half of 2012, but due to prices that are expected to be well above $4000 initially and remain significantly higher than mainstream high-end LCD TVs, will only grow to about 2.5% of the 40"+ segment by 2015.

The worldwide forecast for 3D TVs was slightly increased to more than 23M units in 2011 through better than expected growth in emerging markets and Europe. By contrast, demand in North America has been surprisingly soft for 3D, and may only reach 3.6 million units in 2011 as US consumers remain very price sensitive. Eventually though, North America will see a rise in 3D adoption due to stronger preference for 40”+ sizes where the 3D feature is common and expected to be less costly. Globally, 3D TV is expected rise to more than 100M units shipped by 2015.

Emerging regions, which includes China, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Middle East/Africa, will account for the majority of flat panel TV growth over the next four years, averaging 11% growth each year, while developed regions decline an average of 1% each year. In fact, China has become the largest market for flat panel TVs and will continue to be throughout the forecast period. The Asia-Pacific region is positioned for strongest growth as the late-adopting India market begins to boom.

The NPD DisplaySearch Q4’11 Advanced Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report includes panel and TV shipments by region and by size for nearly 60 brands, and also includes rolling 16-quarter forecasts, TV cost/price forecasts and design wins. NPD DisplaySearch is a global market research and consulting firm specializing in the display supply chain, as well as the emerging photovoltaic/solar cell industries. Access reports at http://www.displaysearch.com/.

Visit the new Displays Manufacturing Channel on ElectroIQ.com!