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IEEE, the world’s largest technical professional organization dedicated to advancing technology for humanity, this week announced the next milestone phase in the development of the International Roadmap for Devices and Systems (IRDS)—an IEEE Standards Association (IEEE-SA) Industry Connections (IC) Program sponsored by the IEEE Rebooting Computing (IEEE RC) Initiative—with the launch of a series of nine white papers that reinforce the initiative’s core mission and vision for the future of the computing industry. The white papers also identify industry challenges and solutions that guide and support future roadmaps created by IRDS.

IEEE is taking a lead role in building a comprehensive, end-to-end view of the computing ecosystem, including devices, components, systems, architecture, and software. In May 2016, IEEE announced the formation of the IRDS under the sponsorship of IEEE RC. The historical integration of IEEE RC and the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) 2.0 addresses mapping the ecosystem of the new reborn electronics industry. The new beginning of the evolved roadmap—with the migration from ITRS to IRDS—is proceeding seamlessly as all the reports produced by the ITRS 2.0 represent the starting point of IRDS.

While engaging other segments of IEEE in complementary activities to assure alignment and consensus across a range of stakeholders, the IRDS team is developing a 15-year roadmap with a vision to identify key trends related to devices, systems, and other related technologies.

“Representing the foundational development stage in IRDS is the publishing of nine white papers that outline the vital and technical components required to create a roadmap,” said Paolo A. Gargini, IEEE Fellow and Chairman of IRDS. “As a team, we are laying the foundation to identify challenges and recommendations on possible solutions to the industry’s current limitations defined by Moore’s Law. With the launch of the nine white papers on our new website, the IRDS roadmap sets the path for the industry benefiting from all fresh levels of processing power, energy efficiency, and technologies yet to be discovered.”

“The IRDS has taken a significant step in creating the industry roadmap by publishing nine technical white papers,” said IEEE Fellow Elie Track, 2011-2014 President, IEEE Council on Superconductivity; Co-chair, IEEE RC; and CEO of nVizix. “Through the public availability of these white papers, we’re inviting computing professionals to participate in creating an innovative ecosystem that will set a new direction for the greater good of the industry. Today, I open an invitation to get involved with IEEE RC and the IRDS.”

The series of white papers delivers the starting framework of the IRDS roadmap—and through the sponsorship of IEEE RC—will inform the various roadmap teams in the broader task of mapping the devices’ and systems’ ecosystem:

“IEEE is the perfect place to foster the IRDS roadmap and fulfill what the computing industry has been searching for over the past decades,” said IEEE Fellow Thomas M. Conte, 2015 President, IEEE Computer Society; Co-chair, IEEE RC; and Professor, Schools of Computer Science, and Electrical and Computer Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology. “In essence, we’re creating a new Moore’s Law. And we have so many next-generation computing solutions that could easily help us reach uncharted performance heights, including cryogenic computing, reversible computing, quantum computing, neuromorphic computing, superconducting computing, and others. And that’s why the IEEE RC Initiative exists: creating and maintaining a forum for the experts who will usher the industry beyond the Moore’s Law we know today.”

The IRDS leadership team hosted a winter workshop and kick-off meeting at the Georgia Institute of Technology on 1-2 December 2016. Key discoveries from the workshop included the international focus teams’ plans and focus topics for the 2017 roadmap, top-level needs and challenges, and linkages among the teams. Additionally, the IRDS leadership invited presentations from the European and Japanese roadmap initiatives. This resulted in the 2017 IRDS global membership expanding to include team members from the “NanoElectronics Roadmap for Europe: Identification and Dissemination” (NEREID) sponsored by the European Semiconductor Industry Association (ESIA), and the “Systems and Design Roadmap of Japan” (SDRJ) sponsored by the Japan Society of Applied Physics (JSAP).

The IRDS team and its supporters will convene 1-3 April 2017 in Monterey, California, for the Spring IRDS Workshop, which is part of the 2017 IEEE International Reliability Physics Symposium (IRPS). The team will meet again for the Fall IRDS Conference—in partnership with the 2017 IEEE International Conference on Rebooting Computing (ICRC)—scheduled for 6-7 November 2017 in Washington, D.C. More information on both events can be found here: http://irds.ieee.org/events.

IEEE RC is a program of IEEE Future Directions, designed to develop and share educational tools, events, and content for emerging technologies.

IEEE-SA’s IC Program helps incubate new standards and related products and services, by facilitating collaboration among organizations and individuals as they hone and refine their thinking on rapidly changing technologies.

Technavio market research analysts forecast the global MRAM market to grow at a CAGR of close to 94% during the forecast period, according to their latest report.

The market study covers the present scenario and growth prospects of the global MRAM market for 2017-2021. The report also lists STT-MRAM and Toggle MRAM as the two major product segments, of which STT-MRAM accounted for more than 63% of the market share in 2016. STT-MRAM devices are more efficient, faster, and easier to scale down as compared to toggle MRAM devices.

“MRAM is a type of nonvolatile memory that utilizes magnetic charges for storing data instead of electric charges as in the case of DRAM and SRAM technologies. MRAM offers the added advantage of higher density in terms of writing and reading speed. In addition, MRAM retains the data even when turned off and consumes less amount of electricity, unlike DRAM and SRAM,” says Navin Rajendra, an industry expert for embedded systems research at Technavio.

Technavio’s sample reports are free of charge and contain multiple sections of the report including the market size and forecast, drivers, challenges, trends, and more.

Technavio hardware and semiconductor analysts highlight the following three market drivers that are contributing to the growth of the global MRAM market:

  • Increasing demand for data centers
  • Growing Internet of things (IoT) and big data operations
  • Enterprise adoption of cloud-based storage

Increasing demand for data centers

High amount of system memory has become crucial for the proper functioning of new types of enterprise and data center applications. DRAM cannot provide the required capacity and low energy required for these data centers. MRAM has advanced features like low-power consumption and higher memory capacity than DRAM. Thus, MRAM is expected to replace DRAM in data centers and enterprise storages during the forecast period.

The demand for data centers among CSPs, government agencies, and telecommunications organizations is growing. Thus, with an increase in the demand for data centers globally, the manufacturers will invest in new technologies that will be equipped with MRAMs, which will drive the global MRAM market.

Growing Internet of things (IoT) and big data operations

There will be around 30 billion Internet-connected devices worldwide by 2020, which will be a major revenue generator for data center storage market as growing connected devices will lead to the generation of high volumes of data. Terms such as a connected car, connected home, connected health, and smart cities are gaining popularity. Many industries such as manufacturing, utilities, retail, automotive, and social media use IoT.

IoT devices demand an energy-efficient network of smart nodes that need to be always powered on, always connected, and always aware, with low active duty cycles. The present IoT devices rely on both nonvolatile storage and volatile working memory simultaneously.

“Manufacturers have introduced a unified memory subsystem that is built on embedded STT-MRAM. This system offers faster processing and is cost and energy efficient as compared to the older technologies,” says Navin.

Enterprise adoption of cloud-based storage

Storing data on the cloud is proving to be an effective medium for enterprises worldwide. Many enterprises started moving their data to the cloud (storage-as-a-service) by selecting service providers such as Amazon Web Service, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform. DRAM has been used in cloud computing applications. However, MRAM has better features like fast read-write and low error rate compared with DRAM, and thus, it is expected that DRAM will soon be replaced by MRAM in the future.

IC Insights has raised its worldwide IC market growth forecast for 2017 to 11%—more than twice its original 5% outlook—based on data shown in the March Update to the 20th anniversary 2017 edition of The McClean Report. The revision was necessary due to a substantial upgrade to the 2017 growth rates forecast for the DRAM and NAND flash memory markets.

IC Insights currently expects DRAM sales to grow 39% and NAND flash sales to increase 25% this year, with upside potential from those forecasts.  DRAM market growth is expected to be driven almost entirely by a huge 37% increase in the DRAM average selling price (ASP), as compared to 2016, when the DRAM ASP dropped by 12%. Moreover, NAND flash ASPs are forecast to rebound and jump 22% this year after falling by 1% last year.

The DRAM market started 2017 the way it ended 2016—with strong gains in DRAM ASP.  In April 2016, the DRAM ASP was $2.41 but rapidly increased to $3.60 in January 2017, a 49% jump.  A pickup in DRAM demand from PC suppliers during the second half of 2016 caused a significant spike in the ASP of PC DRAM.  Currently, strengthening ASPs are also evident in the mobile DRAM market segment.

With total DRAM bit volume demand expected to increase by 30% this year and DRAM bit volume production capacity forecast to increase by 20%, IC Insights believes that quarterly DRAM ASPs could still surprise on the upside in 2017. Furthermore, DRAM output is also being slowed, at least temporarily, by the ongoing transition of DRAM production to ≤20nm feature sizes by the major DRAM producers this year.

At $57.3 billion, the DRAM market is forecast to be by far the largest IC product category in 2017, exceeding the expected MPU market for standard PCs and servers ($47.1 billion) by $10.2 billion this year.  Figure 1 shows that the DRAM market has been both a significant tailwind (i.e., positive influence) and headwind (i.e., negative influence) on total worldwide IC market growth in three out of the past four years.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Spurred by a 12% decline in the DRAM ASP in 2016, the DRAM market slumped 8% last year.  The DRAM segment became a headwind to worldwide IC market growth in 2016 instead of the tailwind it had been in 2013 and 2014. As shown, the DRAM market shaved two percentage points off of total IC industry growth last year.  In contrast, the DRAM segment is forecast to have a positive impact of four percentage points on total IC market growth this year. It is interesting to note that the total IC market growth rate forecast for 2017, when excluding the DRAM and NAND flash markets, would be only 4%, about one-third of the current worldwide IC market growth rate forecast including these memory devices.

The March Update to the 2017 edition of The McClean Report further describes IC Insights’ IC market forecast revision, updates its 2017-2021 semiconductor capital spending forecast, and shows the final 2016 top 10 OSAT company ranking.

Research information that will be posted in the March Update to the 20th anniversary 2017 edition of IC Insights’ McClean Report shows that fabless IC suppliers represented 30% of the world’s IC sales in 2016 (up from only 18% ten years earlier in 2006).  As the name implies, fabless IC companies do not have an IC fabrication facility of their own.

Figure 1 depicts the 2016 fabless company share of IC sales by company headquarters location.  As shown, at 53%, the U.S. companies held the dominant share of fabless IC sales last year, although this share was down from 69% in 2010 (due in part to the acquisition of U.S.-based Broadcom by Singapore-based Avago).  Although Avago, now called Broadcom Limited after its merger with fabless IC supplier Broadcom became official on February 1, 2016, has fabrication facilities that produce III-V discrete devices, it does not possess its own IC fabrication facilities and is considered by IC Insights to be a fabless IC supplier.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Figure 2 shows that in 2009, there was only one Chinese company in the top-50 fabless IC supplier ranking as compared to 11 in 2016.  Moreover, since 2010, the largest fabless IC marketshare increase has come from the Chinese suppliers, which held a 10% share last year as compared to only 5% in 2010. However, when excluding the internal transfers of HiSilicon (over 90% of its sales go to its parent company Huawei), ZTE, and Datang, the Chinese share of the fabless market drops to about 6%.

Figure 2

Figure 2

European companies held only 1% of the fabless IC company marketshare in 2016 as compared to 4% in 2010.  The reason for this loss of share was the acquisition of U.K.-based CSR, the second largest European fabless IC supplier, by U.S.-based Qualcomm in 1Q15 and the purchase of Germany-based Lantiq, the third largest European fabless IC supplier, by U.S.-based Intel in 2Q15.  These acquisitions left U.K.-based Dialog ($1.2 billion in sales in 2016) as the only Europe-headquartered fabless IC supplier in the fabless top 50-company ranking last year (Norway-based Nordic Semiconductor just missed making the top 50 ranking with 2016 sales of $198 million).

There is also only one major fabless Japanese firm—Megachips, which saw its sales increase by 20% in 2016 (8% using a constant 2015 exchange rate), one major South Korean fabless IC company (Silicon Works), and one major Singapore-based (Broadcom Ltd.) fabless supplier.

STATS ChipPAC Pte. Ltd., a provider of advanced semiconductor packaging and test services, announced today that it has shipped 1.5 billion fan-out wafer level packages (FOWLP), also known in the industry as embedded Wafer Level Ball Grid Array (eWLB).  In high volume production for over seven years, STATS ChipPAC has led the industry in FOWLP technology innovations and unit shipments.

“As an early adopter of FOWLP, STATS ChipPAC set an aggressive course in pushing the boundaries of advanced package architecture and manufacturing capabilities long before its peers. We have delivered a number of breakthrough achievements in package density, form factor and heterogeneous integration while continually driving innovations in the manufacturing process to provide a proven, cost effective advanced packaging platform for our customers,” said Shim Il Kwon, Chief Technology Officer, STATS ChipPAC. “Shipping 1.5 billion eWLB packages is a testament to the growing adoption of this technology and the performance, size and cost advantages it provides to our customers.”

FOWLP or eWLB is an advanced packaging technology platform that provides ultra-high density interconnection, superior electrical performance and the ability to integrate multiple heterogeneous dies in a cost effective, low-profile semiconductor package. STATS ChipPAC has a comprehensive portfolio of eWLB package designs, including small die, large die, multi-die, multi-layer, Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS), 2.5D and 3D Package-on-Package (PoP) and System-in-Package (SiP) architectures. A number of eWLB technology milestones have been driven by STATS ChipPAC such as dense vertical interconnections as high as 500 – 1,000 I/O, very fine line width and spacing down to 2um/2um and ultra-thin package profiles below 0.3mm (including solderball) for single packages and below 0.6mm for a stacked PoP with proven warpage control.

Although there are multiple variations of fan-out packaging in development in the industry, eWLB is the only FOWLP solution in the market today that has been in high volume manufacturing for over seven years. STATS ChipPAC has been instrumental in driving important optimizations in the manufacturing process and infrastructure. The eWLB manufacturing process has evolved into the innovative FlexLineTM manufacturing method which was introduced and implemented by STATS ChipPAC in 2014.  The FlexLineTM method delivers unprecedented flexibility in producing both fan-out eWLB and fan-in wafer level chip scale packages (WLCSP) on the same manufacturing line for higher economies of scale and lower cost.

“The depth of production experience we have gained over the years has enabled STATS ChipPAC to continually refine and optimize the eWLB manufacturing process to drive higher output and lower cost per unit. We have made significant capital investments over the years to expand our capacity and continue to increase our production volume to support growing customer demand,” said Cindy Palar, Managing Director, STATS ChipPAC Singapore. “Our 1.5 billion unit milestone reflects the confidence our customers have in eWLB technology and our ability to deliver an advanced packaging solution that best meets the cost and performance targets for their product requirements.”

Currently all leading mobile products as well as some consumer electronics contain eWLB packages that are baseband processors, RF transceivers, connectivity devices, near field communication (NFC), security devices, MCUs, memory, memory controllers, RF MEMS and power management ICs (PMICs). The compelling performance, integration and size advantages of eWLB are also accelerating customer adoption in new and emerging market segments such as the Internet of Things (IoT), wearable electronics, millimeter wave (mmWave) technology for 5G wireless devices, MEMS and sensors, and automotive applications such as Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS).

By Dr. Phil Garrou, Contributing Editor

walkerJim Walker, who retired from Gartner and is now consulting as World Level Packaging Concepts, gave a plenary talk at the recent IMAPS Device Packaging Conference in Scottsdale on the state of the semiconductor industry which contained some interesting perspectives on emerging new business models.

While Gartner 2020 projections show wireless and computer will still account for ~ 50% of the overall market activity, automotive, storage and industrial will show significant growth (7-9%) between now and then and account for ~ 30% of the total market (combined).

Gartner expects consolidation to continue “…with semi companies sitting on $135B in cash and profit margins decreasing there is a need to diversify into new markets” with specifics including:

– IoT related M&A activity will drive consolidation in MCU, analog and sensor technologies.

– Companies will initiate sale of unprofitable divisions and product lines to prepare themselves for M&A (i.e. make themselves more attractive to be acquired).

– China will continue to buy or invest in U.S. and European companies, even as governments impose restrictions.

5 Year Revenue Growth for Application Markets [source: Gartner]

5 Year Revenue Growth for Application Markets [source: Gartner]

Gartner sees the industries maturation resulting in traditional business models changes. The traditional semiconductor ecosystem is shown below.

The Semiconductor Ecosystem

The Semiconductor Ecosystem

Gartner reports that a relatively new problem for some OEMs and Electronics Brands is that they are being bypassed by a direct relationship between the ODM/EMS Co. and a non- electronics brand owner buyer who could be in any industry. This model emerged with Operator branded handsets, although those were recognizable as say Nokia or Motorola. This (Brand) Direct to ODM/EMS business model is good for chip suppliers but bad for traditional electronics companies.

walker 3B

Another relatively new problem for some chip companies now is that they are being bypassed by a direct relationship between the foundry and the EMS/ODM company and the OEM –the OEM Direct model. These could be chips designed by Apple or Facebook (for example) and manufactured by TSMC.

walker 4

Walker specifically suggests we keep an eye on Hon Hai / Foxconn who appears to be building strong and broad manufacturing capabilities through acquisitions like Japans Sharp (Feb 2016) and bidding on the Toshiba memory business (2017).

Packaging is currently ~17% ($53B) of the $265B electronics market. By 2020, 55% of all packaging is expected to be done at OSATS with foundries like TSMC (and maybe others soon) becoming competitors with their own wafer based packaging offerings like InFO. Walker sees a bright future for IoT packaging, but cautions that it is composed of many small to mid sized applications, not one big one like the smart phone, and thus will require many custom packaging solutions.

Annual total semiconductor unit shipments (integrated circuits and opto-sensor-discrete, or O-S-D, devices) are forecast to continue their upward march in the next five years and are now expected to top one trillion units for the first time in 2018, according to data presented in IC Insights’ soon to be released March Update to the 2017 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry, and the 2017 O-S-D Report—A Market Analysis and Forecast for the Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes.

Semiconductor shipments totaled 868.8 billion in 2016 and are forecast to top one trillion units in 2018. Figure 1 shows that semiconductor unit shipments are forecast to climb to 1,002.6 billion devices in 2018 from 32.6 billion in 1978, which amounts to average annual growth of 8.9% over the 40 year period and demonstrates how dependent on semiconductors the world has become.

semiconductor unit growth

Figure 1

The largest annual increase in semiconductor unit growth during the timespan shown was 34% in 1984, and the biggest decline was 19% in 2001 following the dot-com bust.  The global financial meltdown and ensuing recession caused semiconductor shipments to fall in both 2008 and 2009; the only time that the industry experienced consecutive years in which unit shipments declined. Semiconductor unit growth then surged 25% in 2010, the second-highest growth rate across the time span.

Despite advances in integrated circuit technology and the blending of functions to reduce chip count within systems, the percentage split of IC and O-S-D shipments within total semiconductor units remains heavily weighted toward O-S-D devices.  In 2016, O-S-D devices accounted for 72% of total semiconductor units compared to 28% for ICs. Thirty-six years ago in 1980, O-S-D devices accounted for 78% of semiconductor units and ICs represented 22% (Figure 2).

Figure 2

Figure 2

Surprisingly, shipments of commodity-filled discretes devices category (transistor products, diodes, rectifiers, and thyristors) accounted for 44% of all semiconductor unit shipments in 2016. The long-term resiliency of discretes is primarily due to their broad use in all types of electronic system applications. Consumer and communications applications remain the largest end-use segments for discretes, but increasing levels of electronics being packed into vehicles for greater safety and fuel efficiency have boosted shipments of discretes to the automotive market as well. Discretes are used for circuit protection, signal conditioning, power management, high current switching, and RF amplification. Small signal transistors are still used in and around ICs on board designs to fix bugs and tweak system performance.

Among ICs, analog products accounted for the largest number of shipments in 2016. Analog ICs represented 52% of IC unit shipments in 2016, but only 15% of total semiconductor units. Figure 3 shows the split of semiconductor unit shipments by product type in 2016.

2016 semiconductor unit shipments

For 2017, semiconductor products showing the strongest unit growth rates are those that are essential building-block components in smartphones, new automotive electronics systems, and within systems that are helping to build out of Internet of Things.  Some of the fast-growing IC unit categories for 2017 include Consumer—Special Purpose Logic, Signal Conversion (Analog), Auto—Application-Specific Analog, and flash memory.  Among O-S-D devices, CCDs and CMOS image sensors, laser transmitters, and every type of sensor product (magnetic, acceleration and yaw, pressure, and other sensors) are expected to enjoy strong double-digit unit growth this year. More coverage about these semiconductor products and end-use applications are included in the 2017 editions of IC Insights’ McClean Report and O-S-D Report.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $30.6 billion for the month of January 2017, an increase of 13.9 percent compared to the January 2016 total of $26.9 billion. Global sales in January were 1.2 percent lower than the December 2016 total of $31.0 billion, reflecting normal seasonal market trends. January marked the global market’s largest year-to-year growth since November 2010. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“The global semiconductor industry is off to a strong and encouraging start to 2017, posting its highest-ever January sales and largest year-to-year sales increase in more than six years,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Sales into the China market increased by more than 20 percent year-to-year, and most other regional markets posted double-digit growth. Following the industry’s highest-ever revenue in 2016, the global market is well-positioned for a strong start to 2017.”

Year-to-year sales increased substantially across all regions: China (20.5 percent), the Americas (13.3 percent), Japan (12.3 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (11.0 percent), and Europe (4.8 percent). Month-to-month sales increased in Europe (1.2 percent), but fell slightly in China (-0.2 percent), Japan (-1.6 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (-1.6 percent), and the Americas (-3.1 percent).

January 2017

Billions

Month-to-Month Sales                               

Market

Last Month

Current Month

% Change

Americas

6.33

6.13

-3.1%

Europe

2.80

2.84

1.2%

Japan

2.84

2.79

-1.6%

China

10.17

10.15

-0.2%

Asia Pacific/All Other

8.86

8.72

-1.6%

Total

31.01

30.63

-1.2%

Year-to-Year Sales                          

Market

Last Year

Current Month

% Change

Americas

5.41

6.13

13.3%

Europe

2.71

2.84

4.8%

Japan

2.49

2.79

12.3%

China

8.42

10.15

20.5%

Asia Pacific/All Other

7.86

8.72

11.0%

Total

26.89

30.63

13.9%

Three-Month-Moving Average Sales

Market

Aug/Sept/Oct

Nov/Dec/Jan

% Change

Americas

6.06

6.13

1.2%

Europe

2.82

2.84

0.7%

Japan

2.89

2.79

-3.2%

China

9.78

10.15

3.7%

Asia Pacific/All Other

8.88

8.72

-1.8%

Total

30.43

30.63

0.7%

 

“Advanced substrates are the key interconnect component of advanced packaging architectures,” says Andrej Ivankovic, Technology & Market Analyst, Advanced Packaging & Semiconductor Manufacturing at Yole Développement (Yole). Indeed advanced substrates are critical in enabling future products and markets.

To answer to technology evolution and market needs, Yole’s advanced packaging team has established a stand-alone dedicated advanced substrate activity, focused on exploring the market and technologies of PCBs, package substrates and RDLs. And today, the “More than Moore” market research and strategy consulting company announces its first report titled “Advanced Substrates Overview: From IC Package to Board”. This technology & market analysis serves as an overview of advanced substrate technologies, markets, and supply chain, to be supported by subsequent in-depth reports.

advanced substrate tech

Advanced substrates are a key enabler of future products and markets. Yole’s analysts offer you a special focus on this industry and its competitive landscape.

Today’s advanced substrates in volume are:
• FC substrates
• 2.5D/3D TSV assemblies
• And thin-film RDLs especially for FOWLP advanced packaging platform, below an L/S resolution of 15/15 um and with transition below L/S < 10/10 um.

These advanced substrates are traditionally linked to higher-end logic such as CPUs /GPUs, DSPs , etc. Driven by ICs in the latest technology nodes in the computing, networking, mobile, and high-end consumer market segments (gaming, HD /Smart TV).

Moreover, due to additional form factor and low power demands, WLP and advanced FC substrates are also widespread in majority of smartphone functions. Yole’s analysts identified: application processors, baseband, transceivers, filters, amplifiers, WiFi modules, drivers, codecs, power management, etc.

Future higher-end products will require package substrates with L/S < 10/10 um and boards with L/S < 30/30 um. These demands have given rise to three distinct competition areas:
• Board vs. IC substrate (See the image 1: green & grey zone)
• IC substrate vs. FOWLP (See the image 1: green & orange zone)
• FOWLP vs. 2.5D/3D packaging (See the image 1: yellow & orange zone)

The board vs. FC substrate area is characterized by the transition from the subtractive to the mSAP process, and competition between board and substrate manufacturers. Evaluation of “substrate-like PCBs” is already under way at OEMs, and so too the potential new integration opportunities they could bring. Furthermore, developments in FC substrate, FOWLP, and 2.5D/3D packaging have created an immense competitive arena for L/S < 10/10 um packaging, with a large variety of solutions coming from business models across the supply chain including IDMs, foundries, OSATs, WLP houses, substrate manufacturers, and EMS.

As shown in figure 2, the transition to substrates for ICs below L/S < 10/10 um has begun, led by application processors/basebands in FOWLP and advanced FC substrates, and the first GPUs in 2.5D/3D TSV configuration. The “below L/S < 10/10 um” advanced substrate roadmap is open, with intense R&D underway and each manufacturer developing strategies and targets for their respective solutions….

Yole’s advanced substrates report is an overview of the technology status and market evolution. It will be followed by further in-depth reports. Today, with this first edition, the objective is to provide an overview of board, substrate and RDL interconnects, analyze the technology trends and assess future development of the advanced substrate market. A detailed description of the report is available on i-micronews.com, Advanced Packaging reports section.

The Fan-Out platform’s excitement has clearly caught the attention of the advanced packaging industry as well as advanced substrate manufacturers. Day to day, Yole’s advanced packaging team is enlarging its know-how to understand the technical and economic issues.
Analysts are daily interacting with advanced packaging leaders to turn research results into strategies and define a long-term view of the business.
To point out its commitment towards the advanced packaging community, Yole is playing a key role within the program of the 13th International Conference and Exhibition on Device Packaging (March 6-9, 2017 – Fountain Hills, Arizona USA). The consulting company announces two presentations on March 7:
• What is driving the 3D TSV technologies business? Santosh Kumar, Sr Technology & Market Analyst, Yole
• FOWLP: market & technology trend. Jérôme Azemar, Technology & Market Analyst, Yole

As well as a panel discussion titled “The Fan-Out Breakout” moderated by Jérôme Azemar. Fan-Out is the most dynamic solution in the advanced packaging playground at the moment. Make sure you will get an up-to-date vision of the market and debate with brilliant panelists including:

• Rich Rice, Sr. VP of Business Development, ASE Global
• Islam Salama, Director, Pathfinding Department, Substrate and Packaging Technology Development at Intel
• Johannes Lodermeyer, Wafer Level Technology Development Responsible, Infineon Technologies
• Vinayak Pandey, Product and Technology Marketing Director / Scott Sikorski, Product Technology Marketing Vice-President at JCET / STATS ChipPAC
• And Santosh Kumar, Sr Technology & Market Analyst, Yole

Survey results that will be posted in the March Update to the 20th anniversary 2017 edition of IC Insights’ McClean Report show that eleven companies are forecast to have semiconductor capital expenditure budgets greater than $1.0 billion in 2017, and account for 78% of total worldwide semiconductor industry capital spending this year (Figure 1). By comparison, there were eight companies in 2013 with capital spending in excess of $1.0 billion. As shown in the figure, three of the top 11 major capital spenders (Intel, GlobalFoundries, and ST) are forecast to increase their semiconductor spending outlays by 25% or more in 2017.

The biggest percentage increase in spending by a major spender in 2016 came from the China-based pure-play foundry SMIC, which ran its fabrication facilities at ≥95% utilization rate for much of last year. SMIC initially set its 2016 capital expenditure budget at $2.1 billion. However, in November, the company raised its spending budget to $2.6 billion, which resulted in outlays that were 87% greater than in 2015.

In contrast to the surge of spending at SMIC last year, the weak DRAM market spurred both Samsung and SK Hynix to reduce their total 2016 capital spending by 13% and 14%, respectively. Although their total outlays declined, both companies increased their spending for 3D NAND flash in 2016. As shown, Micron is forecast to cut its spending by 13% in 2017, even after including Inotera, which was acquired by Micron in December of last year.

In 2016, GlobalFoundries had plenty of capacity available. As a result, the company cut its capital expenditures by a steep 62%. As shown, the company is forecast to increase its spending this year by 33%, the second-largest increase expected among the major spenders (though its 2017 spending total is still expected to be about half of what the company spent in 2015). It is assumed that almost all of the spending increase this year will be targeted at installing advanced processing technology (the company announced that it is focusing its efforts on developing 7nm technology and will skip the 10nm node).

Figure 1

Figure 1

After spending about $1.06 billion last year, Sony is expected to drop out of the major spender listing in 2017 as it winds down its outlays for capacity additions for its image sensor business and its spending drops below $1.0 billion. As shown in Figure 1, ST is expected to replace Sony in the major spender listing this year by increasing its spending by 73% to $1.05 billion.  It should be noted that ST has stated that this surge in outlays is expected to be a one year event, after which it will revert back to limiting its capital spending to ≤10% of its sales.