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The global market for power semiconductors used in cars and light passenger vehicles will grow by more in $3 billion USD in the next six years, according to new analysis released today by IHS Markit(Nasdaq: INFO).

In the report, entitled “Power Semiconductors in Automotive – 2017”, forecasts the total market for power semiconductors (discretes, power modules and power ICs) to increase from $5.5 billion in 2016 to more than $8.5 billion in 2022.  Revenue will grow at an annual rate of 7.5 percent from 2015 to 2022, the report predicts.

“Increasing electrification in vehicles generally – and in hybrid and electric vehicles specifically – is energizing the market for power semiconductors in vehicles”, said Richard Eden, senior analyst, power semiconductors for IHS Markit. “Staying connected via smartphones and tablets is the modern way of life and to this end, today’s car drivers are opting for Bluetooth, cellular technologies and other telematics functions. All these features require power semiconductors to distribute and control power through vehicles.”

Also contributing to the rise of power semiconductors, the report notes, is the automotive industry’s mission to offer self-driving, ‘green’ and connected cars in the next decade. According to IHS Markit, intermediate safety milestones such as automatic emergency braking (AEB) and platooning are necessary to realize a road system that will accommodate self-driving cars. Other factors in the trend toward more power semiconductors: the need for more fuel-efficient systems, a higher proportion of electric vehicles, and more electronic content per vehicle as required for improved vehicle emission levels.

Powertrain category to lead the way

In studying the automotive electronics market, IHS Markit categorizes five domains on a vehicle: Body and Convenience, Chassis and Safety, Infotainment, Powertrain and Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS). Of these, Powertrain accounted for 47 percent of the total market for automotive power semiconductors in 2015, the report indicated.

Anticipated growth in sales of hybrid and electric vehicles in the next few years will spur power semiconductor sales to climb by CAGR 9.6 percent from 2015 to 2022 across all vehicles, taking Powertrain’s market share up to 54 percent of the total market, according to the report.  Discrete IGBT power transistors account for most of Powertrain power semiconductor revenue, but increased integration of discretes into modules will cause IGBT power module sales to increase at a much faster rate.

According to the IHS Markit report, the Chassis and Safety category represents the second most-valuable automotive domain for power semiconductors, accounting for 24 percent of the total market in 2015. In contrast with Powertrain, the use of power semiconductors in Chassis and Safety will only grow with CAGR of 3.1 percent from 2015 to 2022, the report says. The biggest user of power devices in this domain are applications such as electric power steering, anti-lock braking system and electronic stability control, airbags and tire pressure monitoring, which are already relatively well-established in vehicles.

The domains of Body and Convenience and Infotainment only accounted for 14 percent and 11 percent of the total automotive power semiconductor market in 2015, respectively. Both categories are expected to grow with a CAGR of around 4 to 5 percent from 2015 to 2022, the report predicts. At present, the smallest domain is ADAS, with only 5 percent of the total market in 2015. However, ADAS is forecast to see the fastest growth of all of the five domains, growing with a CAGR of 16 percent from 2015 to 2022. ADAS will see a rapid increase in the number of sensors, cameras and interconnectivity systems in cars, and all will need power semiconductors in their power control circuitry.

A closer look at value

Discrete power semiconductors, the report points out, provide the highest average value per car. This is not surprising as they have the lowest average sales price and are used in even the simplest, cheapest automotive electronic systems like engine, transmission control units, electrified oil pumps and power systems.

Power ICs provide slightly less average value per car. They are more expensive and newer, so are more prevalent in high-end vehicles and more modern car designs, which contain more features, like ADAS, for example. Power modules have the smallest average value per car because their use is restricted to larger, high-end vehicles and to hybrid and electric vehicles only.

Fire, rain, and M&A 


January 19, 2017

By SEMI staff

The expert panel, “The Future of M&A in the Semiconductor Industry,” was a hot topic at SEMI’s Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) conference on January 11.  So hot, it seems, that midway through the panel discussion, a fire alarm triggered and the whole group stepped outside for a quick breather.  Fortunately, this came at a break in the almost nonstop rain – that felt as though the Ritz Carlton might wash off the bluffs of Half Moon Bay.

fire rain

The rain couldn’t put a damper on the mood, though.  Forecasters throughout the conference revised upwards their 2016 results and 2017 forecasts (http://www.semi.org/en/semi-iss-2017-uncovers-new-growth-forecast-upgrades-1) and Diane Bryant, EVP and GM of Intel’s Data Center Group sparked the audience with an amazing keynote that made clear this is the best time ever to be in the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain.

But, how that industry might look in the future was the business of the M&A panel moderated by Robert Maire of Semiconductor Advisors with experts:

  • Patrick Ho, senior research analyst, Semiconductor Capital Equipment at Stifel Nicolaus
  • John Ippolito, VP Corporate Development at MKS Instruments
  • Israel Niv, former CEO of DCG Systems
  • Tom St. Dennis, chairman of the Board of FormFactor.

Will the huge deals of 2015 and 2016 continue?

Setting up the panel, Maire observed that 2015 and 2016 were huge in transaction size (over $100 billion announced in 2015), but while the values of the deals have jumped, the number of deals has remained fairly consistent over the past several years. Also, China has more significantly moved into the M&A market in 2015, in the range $4 to $5 billion.

It appears that M&A will continue, but not at the same pace as 2015 and 2016 due to increasing political, regulatory, and industry pushback.  In the equipment space, while big deals such as Advantest and Verigy were possible in 2011, the current climate has seen big deals falter including Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron; Lam Research and KLA-Tencor; and Aixtron and Fujian Grand Chip.

However, Maire observed that the motivations for M&A continue; for instance, Intel needs to offset a declining PC market and ramp IoT, VR, and Cloud activity and will likely consider M&A as part of its approach.  Similarly, opportunities for equipment companies to increase scale and size exist for process control companies and in the back-end segment where further consolidation appears necessary.

China becomes a player

China’s ambitions in M&A may have been complicated by recent events, but with a $150 billion investment fund there are likely more opportunities ahead.  China has stated the intent to move from producing just 10 percent of its IC consumption to 70 percent in ten years and catching up technologically by 2030.  While some see concerns given China’s investment and later pricing collapses in FPD, PV, and LED, others see China’s efforts to increase its indigenous production of ICs as similar to what has happened as the industry spread from U.S. and Europe to Japan, Taiwan, and Korea.

The panel responded to questions from Maire, questions submitted from the audience, and live audience questions.  Ho noted that big deals in semiconductor equipment appear, for the time being, to be difficult or over.  However, there is still low-hanging fruit and smaller deals.  There is a need to focus on scale and size because customers (IC manufacturers) are bigger and fewer.  For example, Form Factor’s combination with Cascade brought size and scale and enabled Form Factor to be more competitive.

The future for semiconductor equipment consolidation

Several questions revolved around where M&A would happen in the semiconductor equipment space.  There was general consensus that M&A of any of the “big five” (not named, but likely ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA-Tencor) were off the table in the short term due to both regulatory pressure and industry pushback given fears of overly strong supplier power.  Niv thought there were opportunities for consolidation in the metrology and process control space.  Ippolito thought there might be further consolidation opportunities in motion control.  St. Dennis thought there were opportunities throughout the whole supply chain.  He pointed out that the benefits of acquiring a good company were significant, including great talent (difficult and time consuming to develop organically), synergies in not just SG&A, but in technology and field organizations.

The role of private equity was raised.  Ippolito noted that the private market and private equity have roles to play in consolidation opportunities, noting the success of Atlas Copco with Edwards Vacuum and Oerlikon Leybold as an example.

Several questions focused on China.  Niv pointed out the industry needs to think about China similar to how they thought about Japan when Japan was emerging as an IC manufacturing power.  Partnering with Japanese companies was an effective strategy for many and brought long-term success in that market.  Ippolito thought that very large China deals might be off the table for a while, but smaller deals would likely go through.  He noted that $150 billion (the China investment fund) is a lot of money and that tends to find a way forward.

Size matters

The panel seemed to agree size matters.  Niv observed that deals have to be the right size to be digestible with a deal of 10 percent size ratios being easier than other ratios.  Niv noted that one cannot realistically aspire to be acquired by Applied Materials at a revenue of only $20 to $30 million.  For this size, he advised that you are better off getting there by first being an aggregator.  Ho expanded on this by noting that small cap equipment companies can’t attract the attention of the “big five.”  $200 million of revenue only gives the “big five” about a penny of accretion.  For MKS Instruments, the deal with Newport was positive because it added almost $1 in accretion and is an example of a better match in size.

It was a testament to the keen interest in the M&A panel that after the fire alarm evacuation, virtually everyone returned and the audience was nearly immediately again fully engaged in trying to understand what stamp M&A will next leave upon future of the industry.  If we learned anything in 2016, it is that surprises will happen (so it seems, fire alarms will ring when you least expect them).  And, predicting rain, like predicting which deals will go through in a fundamentally new geopolitical environment, will be a guessing game.  However, there’s no doubt that M&A will continue and the opportunities ahead of us will rewrite our industry map.

For information on SEMI, visit www.semi.org and follow SEMI on LinkedIn and Twitter. For the SEMI event calendar, visit www.semi.org/en/events.

Worldwide semiconductor capital spending is projected to increase 2.9 percent in 2017, to $69.9 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. This is down from 5.1 percent growth in 2016 (see Table 1).

“The stronger growth in 2016 was fueled by Increased spending in late 2016 which can be attributed to a NAND flash shortage which was more severe in late 2016 and will persist though most of 2017. This is due to a better-than-expected market for smartphones, which is driving an upgrade of NAND spending in our latest forecast,” said David Christensen, senior research analyst at Gartner. “NAND spending increased by $3.1 billion in 2016 and several related wafer fab equipment segments showed stronger growth than our previous forecast. The thermal, track and implant segments in 2017 are expected to increase 2.5 percent, 5.6 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively.

Compared with early 2016, the semiconductor outlook has improved, particularly in memory, due to stronger pricing and a better-than-expected market for smartphones. An earlier-than-anticipated recovery in memory should lead to growth in 2017 and be slightly enhanced by changes in key applications.

Table 1: Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Spending and Equipment Spending Forecast, 2015-2020 (Millions of Dollars)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Semiconductor Capital Spending ($M)

 67,994.0

 69,936.6

 73,613.5

 78,355.6

 75,799.3

Growth (%)

5.1

2.9

5.3

6.4

-3.3

Wafer-Level Manufacturing Equipment ($M)

35,864.4

38,005.4

38,488.7

41,779.7

39,827.0

Growth (%)

7.9

6.0

1.3

8.6

-4.7

Wafer Fab Equipment ($M)

 34,033.2

 35,978.6

 36,241.1

 39,272.8

 37,250.4

Growth (%)

8.1

5.7

0.7

8.4

-5.1

Wafer-Level Packaging and Assembly Equipment ($M)

1,831.2

2,026.8

2,247.6

2,506.9

2,567.7

Growth (%)

3.9

10.7

10.9

11.5

2.8

Source: Gartner (January 2017)

Foundries continue to outgrow the overall semiconductor market with mobile processors from Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and HiSilicon as the demand driver on leading-node wafers. In particular, fast 4G migration and more-powerful processors have resulted in larger die sizes than previous-generation application processors, requiring more 28 nanometer (nm), 16/14 nm and 10 nm wafers from foundries. Nonleading technology will continue to be strong from the integrated display driver controllers and fingerprint ID chips and active-matrix organic light-emitting diode (AMOLED) display driver integrated circuits (ICs).

This research is produced by Gartner’s Semiconductor Manufacturing program. This research program, which is part of the overall semiconductor research group, provides a comprehensive view of the entire semiconductor industry, from manufacturing to device and application market trends. Gartner clients can see more in “Forecast Analysis: Semiconductor Capital Spending and Manufacturing Equipment, Worldwide, 4Q16 Update.”

The pure-play foundry market is forecast to play an increasingly stronger role in the worldwide IC market during the next five years, according to IC Insights’ new 2017 McClean Report, which becomes available later this month.  The 20th anniversary edition of The McClean Report forecasts that the 2016-2021 pure-play IC foundry market will increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6%; growing from $50.0 billion in 2016 to $72.1 billion in 2021.

IC foundries have two main customers—fabless IC companies (e.g., Qualcomm, Nvidia, Xilinx, AMD, etc.) and IDMs (e.g., ON, ST, TI, Toshiba, etc.).  The success of fabless IC companies as well as the movement to more outsourcing by existing IDMs has fueled strong growth in IC foundry sales since 1998.  Moreover, an increasing number of mid-size companies are ditching their fabs in favor of the fabless business model.  A few examples include Fujitsu, IDT, LSI Corp. (now part of Avago), Avago (now Broadcom Ltd.), and AMD, which have all become fabless IC suppliers over the past few years.

Figure 1 shows the ranking of the top 10 pure-play foundries in 2016.  In 2016, the “Big 4” pure-play foundries (i.e., TSMC, GlobalFoundries, UMC, and SMIC) held an imposing 85% share of the total worldwide pure-play IC foundry market.  As shown, TSMC held a 59% marketshare in 2016, the same as in 2015, and its sales increased by $2.9 billion last year, more than double the $1.4 billion increase it logged in 2015.  GlobalFoundries, UMC, and SMIC’s combined share was 26% in 2016, the same as in 2015.

The three top-10 pure-play foundry companies that displayed the highest growth rates in 2016 were X Fab (54%), which specializes in analog, mixed-signal, and high-voltage devices and acquired pure-play foundry Altis in 3Q16 to move into the top 10 for the first time, China-based SMIC (31%), and analog and mixed-signal specialist foundry TowerJazz (30%).  In contrast to X-Fab’s 2016 growth spurt, TowerJazz and SMIC have been on a very strong growth curve over the past few years.  TowerJazz went from $505 million in sales in 2013 to $1,249 million in 2016 (a 35% CAGR) while SMIC more than doubled its revenue from 2011 ($1,220 million) to 2016 ($2,921 million) and registered a 19% CAGR over this five-year period.

Seven of the top 10 pure-play foundries listed in Figure 1 are based in the Asia-Pacific region.  Europe-headquartered specialty foundry X-Fab, Israel-based TowerJazz, and U.S.-headquartered GlobalFoundries are the only non-Asia-Pacific companies in the top 10 group.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Further trends and analysis relating to the IC market are covered in the 400-plus page 2017 edition of The McClean Report.

Sales of memory ICs are expected to show the strongest growth rate among major integrated circuit market categories during the next five years, according to IC Insights’ new 2017 McClean Report, which becomes available this month.  The 20th anniversary edition of The McClean Report forecasts that revenues for memory products—including DRAMs and NAND flash ICs—will increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% to $109.9 billion in 2021 from $77.3 billion in 2016.

The 2017 McClean Report separates the total IC market into four major product categories: analog, logic, memory, and microcomponents.  Figure 1 shows the forecasted 2016-2021 CAGRs of the four major IC product categories compared to the projected total IC market annual growth rate of 4.9% during the five-year period.  As shown, the memory IC category is forecast to show the strongest growth rate through 2021 while the weakest increase is expected to occur in the logic category, which includes general-purpose logic, ASICs, field-programmable logic, display drivers, and application-specific standard products.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The strong memory CAGR is driven by surging low-power memory requirements for DRAM and NAND flash in portable wireless devices like smartphones and by growing demand for solid-state drives (SSD) used in big-data storage applications and increasingly in notebook computers.  Moreover, year-over-year DRAM bit volume growth is expected to increase throughout the forecast to support virtualization, graphics, and other complex, real-time workload applications.

Analog ICs, the second-fastest growing segment, are a necessity within both very advanced and low-budget systems. Power management analog devices are critical for helping extend battery life in portable and wireless systems and have demonstrated strong market growth in recent years.  In 2017, the signal conversion market is forecast to be the fastest growing analog IC category, and the second-fastest growing IC product category overall, trailing only the market growth of 32-bit MCUs.

Total microcomponent sales have cooled significantly.  Fortunately, marginal gains in the cellphone MPU market and strong gains in the 32-bit MCU market have helped offset weakness of standard PC and tablet microprocessor sales.

The McClean Report includes sales history and forecast information for each IC product within these four large product categories for the 2014-2021 time period.  Included are market, unit, average selling price (ASP), and 2016-2021 compound average growth rate (CAGR) for all IC categories. Further trends and analysis relating to the IC market are covered in the 400-plus page 2017 edition of The McClean Report.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $31.0 billion for the month of November 2016, an increase of 7.4 percent compared to the November 2015 total of $28.9 billion and 2.0 percent more than the October 2016 total of 30.4 billion. November marked the market’s largest year-to-year growth since January 2015. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“Global semiconductor sales continued to pick up steam in November, increasing at the highest rate in almost two years and nearly pulling even with the year-to-date total from the same point in 2015,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “The Chinese market continues to stand out, growing nearly 16 percent year-to-year to lead all regional markets. As 2016 draws to a close, the global semiconductor market appears likely to roughly match annual sales from 2015 and is well-positioned for a solid start to 2017.”

Month-to-month sales increased modestly across all regions: the Americas (3.3 percent), China (2.7 percent), Europe (2.5 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (0.7 percent), and Japan (0.4 percent). Year-to-year sales increased in China (15.8 percent), Japan (8.2 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (4.8 percent), and the Americas (3.2 percent), but fell slightly in Europe (-1.6 percent).

By Chet Lenox, David W. Price and Douglas G. Sutherland

Author’s Note: The Process Watch series explores key concepts about process control—defect inspection and metrology—for the semiconductor industry. Following the previous installments, which examined the 10 fundamental truths of process control, this new series of articles highlights additional trends in process control, including successful implementation strategies and the benefits for IC manufacturing. For this article, we are pleased to include insights from our guest author and colleague at KLA-Tencor, Chet Lenox.

In order to maximize the profitability of an IC manufacturer’s new process node or product introduction, an early and fast yield ramp is required. Key to achieving this rapid yield ramp is the ability to provide quality and actionable data to the engineers making decisions on process quality and needed improvements.

The data used to make these decisions comes in two basic forms:

  • Inline inspection and metrology results
  • End-of-line (EOL) parametric testing, product yield results and failure-analysis

Inline inspection and metrology serve as the primary source of data for process engineers, enabling quick identification of excursions and implementation of corrective actions. End-of-line results serve as a metric of any process flow’s ability to produce quality product, generating transistor parametrics, yield sub-binning and physical failure analysis (PFA) data that provide insight into process quality and root-cause mechanisms.

In general, a fab is better off financially by finding and fixing problems inline versus end-of-line1 due to the long delay between wafer processing and collection of EOL data. However, EOL results are a critical component in understanding how specific inline defects correlate to product performance and yield, particularly during early process development cycles. Therefore, the ideal yield improvement methodology relies on inline inspection and metrology for excursion monitoring and process change qualification, while EOL results are used only for the validation of yield improvement changes.

In order for this scenario to be achieved, inline data must be high quality with appropriate sampling, and a clear correlation must be established between inline results and EOL yield. One key tool that is often utilized to achieve this connection is hitback analysis. Hitback analysis is the mapping of EOL electrical failure and PFA locations to inline defect locations identified by inspection tools.

Hitback analysis comes in two basic forms. In the traditional method, EOL yield failures guide PFA, often in the form of a cross-section transmission electron microscope (TEM) confirmation of a physical defect. This physical location is then overlaid against inline defect locations for correlation to inline learning. This analysis often offers clear causality for yield failures, but is slow (dozens/week) and can be blind to defect modes that are difficult to locate or image in TEM.

The second method, which is growing in popularity, is to overlay the EOL electrical failure location directly to inline defect data (figure 1). This is largely enabled by modern logic design methods and analysis tools that allow electrical failures to be localized into “chain” locations where the failure is likely to occur. Furthermore, new technologies allow inline inspection to be guided to potential chain location failures based purely on design layout.

For example, KLA-Tencor’s broadband plasma optical patterned wafer inspection systems incorporate patented technologies (NanoPoint™, pin•point™) that leverage design data to define very tiny inspection areas focused solely on critical patterns.2,3,4 Using these design-based technologies to inspect patterns related to potential chain failures produces inspection results consisting of defects that are strongly correlated to end-of-line yield. This more direct technique allows for faster turn-around on analysis, enables higher sampling (hundreds of defects/wafer) and can provide successful causality on defect modes that are difficult to find physically at EOL.

Figure 1. Hitback analysis technique where likely die fail chain locations from EOL are overlaid with inline inspection results.

Figure 1. Hitback analysis technique where likely die fail chain locations from EOL are overlaid with inline inspection results.

To achieve successful direct hitback analysis from electrical fail chains to inline defect locations, a number of methodologies are helpful:

  • Wafers that will be used for hitback analysis should be inspected at all key process steps. This avoids “holes” in potential causality to the EOL failure
  • Geometry-based overlay algorithms should be used that combine the point-based inline defect location with area-based reporting of EOL chains
  • The overlay distance allowed to label a chain-to-defect distance a “hit” must be large enough to allow for inspection tool defect location accuracy (DLA) but small enough that the statistical probability of false-positives is low; see Figure 2
  • All defects found by the inspector should be used for analysis, not just defects that are classified by subsequent review steps
  • Electrical fail chain locations should utilize layer information as well as x/y mapping
Figure 2. The threshold used to overlay EOL electrical chains to inline defects must be optimized to avoid failures or false positives.

Figure 2. The threshold used to overlay EOL electrical chains to inline defects must be optimized to avoid failures or false positives.

When performed properly, the hitback capture rate metric (in percentage) will quantify the number of fails which “hitback” to inline defects. This metric can be used broadly as an indicator of inline inspection capability, with higher numbers indicating that inline inspection can be more confidently used in yield improvement efforts. Therefore, hitback analysis should be performed as early as possible in the development cycle and new product introduction timescale. This allows time for inline defect inspection capture rate improvement through these traditional methods:

  • Inspection tool and recipe improvement, including the use of guided inspection based on product layout
  • Lot-, wafer- and die-level sampling adjustments
  • Process step inspection location optimization

When performed regularly, hitback analysis greatly assists in improving inline inspection confidence and improves yield learning speed. Hitback capture rates increasing to more than 70 percent are not uncommon for effective inline monitoring schemes. It is worth mentioning that the slower EOL PFA Pareto generation and hitback analysis is still required even when direct EOL-to-inline is performed in order to validate the chain fails and hitback capture rate.

Yield ramp rate is often the primary factor in the profitability of a fab’s new process and new product introduction. This ramp rate is strongly influenced by the effectiveness of inline wafer inspection, allowing faster information turns and quicker decision making by process engineers. Hitback analysis is a key method for gauging the effectiveness of inline inspection and for driving inspection improvements, particularly when correlating EOL electrical chain failures to inline defect results.

References:

About the Authors:

Dr. Chet Lenox, Dr. David W. Price and Dr. Douglas Sutherland are Yield Consultant, Senior Director, and Principal Scientist, respectively, at KLA-Tencor Corp. Dr. Lenox, Dr. Price and Dr. Sutherland have worked directly with many semiconductor IC manufacturers to help them optimize their overall inspection strategy to achieve the lowest total cost. This series of articles attempts to summarize some of the universal lessons they have observed through these engagements.

From the ground-breaking research breakthroughs to the shifting supplier landscape, these are the stories the Solid State Technology audience read the most during 2016.

#1: Moore’s Law did indeed stop at 28nm

In this follow up, Zvi Or-Bach, president and CEO, MonolithIC 3D, Inc., writes: “As we have predicted two and a half years back, the industry is bifurcating, and just a few products pursue scaling to 7nm while the majority of designs stay on 28nm or older nodes.”

#2: Yield and cost challenges at 16nm and beyond

In February, KLA-Tencor’s Robert Cappel and Cathy Perry-Sullivan wrote of a new 5D solution which utilizes multiple types of metrology systems to identify and control fab-wide sources of pattern variation, with an intelligent analysis system to handle the data being generated.

#3: EUVL: Taking it down to 5nm

The semiconductor industry is nothing if not persistent — it’s been working away at developing extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUVL) for many years, SEMI’s Deb Vogler reported in May.

#4: IBM scientists achieve storage memory breakthrough

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM).

#5: ams breaks ground on NY wafer fab

In April, ams AG took a step forward in its long-term strategy of increasing manufacturing capacity for its high-performance sensors and sensor solution integrated circuits (ICs), holding a groundbreaking event at the site of its new wafer fabrication plant in Utica, New York.

#6: Foundries takeover 200mm fab capacity by 2018

In January, Christian Dieseldorff of SEMI wrote that a recent Global Fab Outlook report reveals a change in the landscape for 200mm fab capacity.

#7: Equipment spending up: 19 new fabs and lines to start construction

While semiconductor fab equipment spending was off to a slow start in 2016, it was expected to gain momentum through the end of the year. For 2016, 1.5 percent growth over 2015 is expected while 13 percent growth is forecast in 2017.

#8: How finFETs ended the service contract of silicide process

Arabinda Daa, TechInsights, provided a look into how the silicide process has evolved over the years, trying to cope with the progress in scaling technology and why it could no longer be of service to finFET devices.

#9: Five suppliers to hold 41% of global semiconductor marketshare in 2016

In December, IC Insights reported that two years of busy M&A activity had boosted marketshare among top suppliers.

#10: Countdown to Node 5: Moving beyond FinFETs

A forum of industry experts at SEMICON West 2016 discussed the challenges associated with getting from node 10 — which seems set for HVM — to nodes 7 and 5.

BONUS: Most Watched Webcast of 2016: View On Demand Now

IoT Device Trends and Challenges

Presenters: Rajeev Rajan, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, and Uday Tennety, GE Digital

The age of the Internet of Things is upon us, with the expectation that tens of billions of devices will be connected to the internet by 2020. This explosion of devices will make our lives simpler, yet create an array of new challenges and opportunities in the semiconductor industry. At the sensor level, very small, inexpensive, low power devices will be gathering data and communicating with one another and the “cloud.” On the other hand, this will mean huge amounts of small, often unstructured data (such as video) will rippling through the network and the infrastructure. The need to convert that data into “information” will require a massive investment in data centers and leading edge semiconductor technology.

Also, manufacturers seek increased visibility and better insights into the performance of their equipment and assets to minimize failures and reduce downtime. They wish to both cut their costs as well as grow their profits for the organization while ensuring safety for employees, the general public and the environment.

The Industrial Internet is transforming the way people and machines interact by using data and analytics in new ways to drive efficiency gains, accelerate productivity and achieve overall operational excellence. The advent of networked machines with embedded sensors and advanced analytics tools has greatly influenced the industrial ecosystem.

Today, the Industrial Internet allows you to combine data from the equipment sensors, operational data , and analytics to deliver valuable new insights that were never before possible. The results of these powerful analytic insights can be revolutionary for your business by transforming your technological infrastructure, helping reduce unplanned downtime, improve performance and maximize profitability and efficiency.

IC Insights will release its 20th anniversary edition of The McClean Report in January of next year.  The following represents a portion of the memory forecast that will appear in the new report.

After increasing by more than 20% in both 2013 and 2014, the memory market fell upon difficult times in 2015. Conditions that would normally be seen as favorable for boosting demand and increasing prices for memory devices such as supplier consolidation, limited capacity expansion, and a growing list of emerging applications did not prop up the market at all in 2015.   Instead, slow system demand in personal computers led to excess inventory and steep price cuts in the second half of 2015. This resulted in a 3% decline to $78.0 billion for the 2015 memory market. These same weak market conditions carried into the first half of 2016, but then memory prices began to firm in the second half of the year and the market finished the year on a strong note, though still down 1% year over year.

Looking to 2017, IC Insights’ forecast the total memory IC market will increase 10% to a new record high of $85.3 billion as gains in average selling prices for DRAM and NAND flash help boost total memory sales. Increases in the memory market are forecast to continue each year through the forecast, with sales topping $100.0 billion for the first time in 2020 and then reaching nearly $110.0 billion in 2021 (Figure 1).

From 2016-2021, the average annual growth rate for the memory market is forecast to be 7.3%; about 2.4 points more than the total IC market CAGR during this same time.  Memory units are expected to grow by a CAGR of 5.6%. Playing a bigger role in memory market growth through 2021 will be strengthening average selling prices (ASPs).  Memory market ASPs fell 3% in 2015 and declined another 10% in 2016 but are expected to increase in all but one year (2020) through the forecast at an average annual rate of 1.8%.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The DRAM market, which was the catalyst for strong total memory market growth in 2013 and 2014, tumbled 3% in 2015 and another 10% in 2016, dragging the total memory market down with it in both years (Figure 1).  For 2017, IC Insights forecasts a strong increase in DRAM average selling prices, which is expected to lift the DRAM market to 11% growth.   The NAND flash memory market—the only memory segment to show an increase in 2016—is expected to grow 10% in 2017.  Together, DRAM and NAND flash are forecast to help propel the total memory IC market up 10% in 2017.

By Christian G. Dieseldorff, Industry Research & Statistics Group at SEMI 

Data from SEMI’s recently updated World Fab Forecast report reveal that 62 new Front End facilities will begin operation between 2017 and 2020.  This includes facilities and lines ranging from R&D to high volume fabs, which begin operation before high volume ramp commences.  Most of these newly operating facilities will be volume fabs; only 7 are R&Ds or Pilot facilities.

Between 2017 and 2020, China will see 26 facilities and lines beginning operation, about 42 percent of the worldwide total currently tracked by SEMI.  The majority of the facilities starting operation in 2018 are Chinese-owned companies. The peak for China in 2018 comes mainly from foundry facilities (54 percent). The Americas region follows with 10 facilities, and Taiwan with 9 facilities. See Figure 1.

Figure 1 depicts the regions in which new facilities will begin operation.

Figure 1 depicts the regions in which new facilities will begin operation.

By product type, the forecast for new facilities and lines include: 20 (32 percent) are forecast to be foundries, followed by 13 Memory (21 percent), seven LED (11 percent), six Power (10 percent) and five MEMS (8 percent). See Figure 2

Figure 2: New facilities & lines starting operation by product type from 2017 to 2020

Figure 2: New facilities & lines starting operation by product type from 2017 to 2020

Because the forecast extends several years, it includes facilities and lines of all probabilities, including rumored projects and projects which have been announced, but have a low probability of actually happening.  See Table 1.

FabForecast-table1

 

Probabilities of less than 50 percent are considered unconfirmed, while a probability of 80 to 85 percent means that the facility is currently in construction mode.  Projects with 90 percent probability are currently equipping. As the forecast gets farther out, more of the projects have lower probabilities.

The projects under construction, or soon to be under construction, will be key drivers in equipment spending for this industry over the next several years — with China expected to be the key spending market.

SEMI’s World Fab Forecast provides detailed information about each of these fab projects, such as milestone dates, spending, technology node, products, and capacity information. Since the last publication in August 2016, the research team has made 249 changes on 222 facilities/lines.

The World Fab Forecast Report, in Excel format, tracks spending and capacities for over 1,100 facilities including future facilities across industry segments from Analog, Power, Logic, MPU, Memory, and Foundry to MEMS and LEDs facilities.  Using a bottoms-up approach methodology, the SEMI Fab Forecast provides high-level summaries and graphs, and in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab.

The SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses.  The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment. Also check out the Opto/LED Fab Forecast.

Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats.