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North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.75 billion in orders worldwide in May 2016 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.09, according to the May Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI.  A book-to-bill of 1.09 means that $109 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

SEMI reports that the three-month average of worldwide bookings in May 2016 was $1.75 billion. The bookings figure is 9.6 percent higher than the final April 2016 level of $1.60 billion, and is 13.1 percent higher than the May 2015 order level of $1.55 billion.

The three-month average of worldwide billings in May 2016 was $1.60 billion. The billings figure is 9.6 percent higher than the final April 2016 level of $1.46 billion, and is 2.8 percent higher than the May 2015 billings level of $1.56 billion.

“Bookings and billings for new semiconductor equipment continue to improve,” said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. “The data are consistent with higher spending expectations for the second half of the year.”

The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving averages of worldwide bookings and billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Billings
(3-mo. avg)

Bookings
(3-mo. avg)

Book-to-Bill
December 2015

$1,349.9

$1,343.5

1.00
January 2016

$1,221.2

$1,310.9

1.07
February 2016

$1,204.4

$1,262.0

1.05
March 2016

$1,197.6

$1,379.2

1.15
April 2016 (final)

$1,460.2

$1,595.4

1.09
May 2016 (prelim)

$1,601.1

$1,749.3

1.09

Source: SEMI (www.semi.org), June 2016

The data contained in this release were compiled by David Powell, Inc., an independent financial services firm, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and David Powell, Inc. assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data.

The data are contained in a monthly Book-to-Bill Report published by SEMI. The report tracks billings and bookings worldwide of North American-headquartered manufacturers of equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not billings and bookings of the chips themselves. The Book-to-Bill report is one of three reports included with the SEMI Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS).

Driven by a strong semiconductor market outlook and aggressive investment in advanced packaging capability fueled by strong government support, advanced packaging revenue in China is expected to reach US$ 4.6 billion in 2020, against US$ 2.2 billion in 2015, announces Yole Développement (Yole). This market is showing an impressive 16% CAGR during this period. China has the world’s largest population, and its economy will continue to grow at a high pace: the economists predict a 6% growth, reaching around US$16 trillion by 2020. Also, an increase in per capita income (more purchasing power) will ensure China remains a dominant market in the coming years. Today, no business can afford to ignore China.

advpackaging_china_waferforecastyole_june2016_373x280

Under this context, the “More than Moore” market research and strategy consulting company, Yole explores the advanced packaging industry in China and details, in its latest advanced packaging report entitled “Status & Prospects for the Advanced Packaging Industry in China”, the status of this industry, its market drivers and key market data and technology trends. Yole’s analysts propose a clear vision of the Chinese government commitment within the advanced packaging industry in China and point out the huge China’s IC investments fund. Business opportunities, technical challenges and more are also part of Yole’s market & technology analysis.

China commands a significant market for key electronic products. In fact, over half of all key electronic products are consumed in China. In 2014, the Chinese smartphone, LCD, notebook/tablet, and wearable markets were around 81%, 63%, 71%, and 47% of the global market, respectively. The global IC market will grow by a CAGR of 4% from 2014 – 2020, while the Chinese IC market will grow by 7% over the same period. According to Yole, the Chinese IC market is expected to reach about US$149 billion by 2020, around 40% of the total IC market.

“There is a huge gap between China’s IC consumption and its manufacturing,” commented Santosh Kumar, Senior Technology & Market Analyst at Yole. And he details: “In 2015, China produced only 12.5% roughly of the IC it consumes, and the gap between IC consumption and production is about US$91 billion. Currently, IC is China’s #1 import commodity, exceeding oil.”

China considers the IC industry to be a key strategic sector. The Chinese government is making a significant effort through funding and a national IC policy, with an aggressive growth strategy to make China an IC design and manufacturing hub. The goal by 2030 is to become the global leader in all primary IC industrial supply chain segments.

The Chinese government has employed a multi-pronged strategy to support domestic IC industry development in order to achieve the goal of becoming the global leader in all primary IC industrial supply chain segments by 2030. Over the last few decades the Chinese government has supported the domestic IC industry, but with limited success. One key reason for failure was the bureaucratic approach to resource allocation, which was by nature inefficient. This time around, the government is adopting a market-based approach where funding is available for investment in the form of equity investments rather than subsidies in invested companies. The goal is to generate return on investment while simultaneously aligning with government policy.

Out of more than 200 firms, there are 128 companies having significant advanced packaging & assembly (A&P) operations in China. Yole’s analysts identified around 147 plants all over China, mostly based in Jiangsu (43), Guangdong (30) and Shanghai (22) regions. In this part of the globe, more than 50% of A&P plants belongs to IDMs . A number of Taiwan-HQ OSAT plants are concentrated in Jiangsu, especially in the Suzhou Industry Park. Indeed global OSATs such as Amkor Technology and SPIL are investing in advanced packaging capability of their own Chinese operations: China (Shanghai) operation is the Amkor’s second-largest factory by revenue. The advanced packaging market growth is led by JCET/STATSChipPAC, Huatian, NFME & China WLCSP. And the Chinese advanced packaging market is offering a wide range of platforms including:

  •  Flip-chip technology is the largest advanced packaging market segment in China reaching US$ 1,8 billion in 2015. The Flip-chip market is covering bumping and assembly steps. “We see a huge ramping of bumping capacity in China, especially by Chinese players with 12” Cu pillar process,” comments Santosh Kumar from Yole. “This growth is mainly supported by the Flip-chip industry in China showing a 16% CAGR between 2015 and 2020”. Flip-chip platform is followed by WLCSP technology with US$ 343 million in 2015 as well.
•  Fan-out and 2.5/3D platforms are only emerging in China and will have less than 1% market share by 2020.

Under its latest advanced packaging report, Yole’s advanced packaging team points out the key market drivers of this industry. They list:
•  Long-term growth in China IC industry
•  Aggressive mergers & acquisitions
•  Numerous Chinese government initiatives
•  Investments led by global OSATs
This analysis also gives an overview of China’s semiconductor ecosystem and discusses in detail the country’s advanced packaging market.

By Paula Doe, SEMI

The changing market for ICs means the end of business as usual for the greater semiconductor supply chain. Smarter use of data analytics looks like a key strategy to get new products more quickly into high yield production at improved margins.

Emerging IoT market drives change in manufacturing

The emerging IoT market for pervasive intelligence everywhere may be a volume driver for the industry, but it will also put tremendous pressure on prices that drive change in manufacturing. Pressure to keep ASPs of multichip connected devices below $1 to $5 for many IoT low-to-mid end applications, will drive more integration of the value chain, and more varied elements on the die. “The value chain must evolve to be more effective and efficient to meet the price and cost pressures for such IoT products and applications,” suggests Rajeev Rajan, VP of IoT, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, who will speak on the issue in a day-long forum on the future of smart manufacturing in the semiconductor supply chain at SEMICON West 2016 on July 14.

“It also means tighter and more complete integration of features on the die that enable differentiating capabilities at the semiconductor level, and also fewer, smaller devices that reduce the overall Bill of Materials (BOM), and result in more die per wafer.” He notes that at 22nm GLOBALFOUNDRIES is looking to enable an integrated connectivity solution instead of a separate die or external chip. Additional requirements for IoT are considerations for integrating security at the lower semiconductor/hardware layers, along with the typical higher layer middleware and software layers.

This drive for integration will also mean demand for new advanced packaging solutions that deliver smaller, thinner, and simpler form factors. The cost pressure also means than the next nodes will have to offer tangible power/performance/area/cost (PPAC) value, without being too disruptive a transition from the current reference flow. “Getting to volume yields faster will involve getting yield numbers earlier in the process, with increasing proof-points and planning iterations up front with customers, at times tied to specific use-cases and IoT market sub-segments,” he notes.

Rapid development of affordable data tools from other industries may help

Luckily, the wide deployment of affordable sensors and data analysis tools in other industries in other industries is developing solutions that may help the IC sector as well.  “A key trend is the “democratization” – enabling users to do very meaningful learning on data, using statistical techniques, without requiring a Ph.D. in statistics or mathematics,” notes Bill Jacobs, director, Advanced Analytics Product Management, Microsoft Corporation, another speaker in the program. “Rapid growth of statistics-oriented languages like R across industries is making it easier for manufacturers and equipment suppliers to capture, visualize and learn from data, and then build those learnings into dashboards for rapid deployment, or build them directly into automated applications and in some cases, machines themselves.”

Intel has reported using commercially available systems such as Cloudera, Aquafold, and Revolution Analytics (now part of Microsoft) to combine, store, analyze and display results from a wide variety of structured and unstructured manufacturing data. The system has been put to work to determine ball grid placement accuracy from machine learning from automatic comparison of thousands of images to select the any that deviate from the known-good pattern,  far more efficiently than human inspectors, and also to analyze tester parametrics to predict 90% of potential failures of the test interface unit before they happen.

“The IC industry may be ahead in the masses of data it gathers, but other industries are driving the methodology for easy management of the data,” he contends. “There’s a lot that can be leveraged from other industries to improve product quality, supply chain operations, and line up-time in the semiconductor industry.”

Demands for faster development of more complex devices require new approaches

As the cost of developing faster, smaller, lower power components gets ever higher, the dual sourcing strategies of automotive and other big IC users puts even more pressure on device makers to get the product right the first time. “There’s no longer time to learn with iterations to gradually improve the yield over time, now we need to figure out how to do this faster, as well as how to counter higher R&D costs on lower margins,” notes Sia Langrudi, Siemens VP Worldwide Strategy and Business Development,   who will also speak in the program.

The first steps are to recognize the poor visibility and traceability from design to manufacturing, and to put organizational discipline into place to remove barriers between silos. Then a company needs good baseline data, to be able to see improvement when it happens. “It’s rather like being an alcoholic, the first step is to recognize you have a problem,” says Langrudi. “People tell me they already have a quality management system, but they don’t. They have lots of different information systems, and unless they are capturing the information all in one place, the opportunity to use it is not there.”

Other speakers discussing these issues in the Smart Manufacturing Forum at SEMICON West July 14 include Amkor SVP Package Products Robert Lanzone, Applied Materials VP New Markets & Services Chris Moran, Intel VP IoT/GM Industrial Anthony Neal Graves, NextNine US Sales Manager Don Harroll, Optimal+ VP WW Marketing David Park, Qualcomm SVP Engineering Michael Campbell, Rudolph Technologies VP/GM Software Thomas Sonderman, and Samsung Sr Director, Engineering Development, Austin, Ben Eynon.

Learn more about the speakers at the SEMICON West 2016 session “Smart Manufacturing: The Key Opportunities and Challenges of the Next Generation of Manufacturing for the Electronics Value Chain.” To see all sessions in the Extended Supply Chain Forum, click here.

Today, SEMI announced that 19 new fabs and lines are forecasted to begin construction in 2016 and 2017, according to the latest update of the SEMI World Fab Forecast report. While semiconductor fab equipment spending is off to a slow start in 2016, it is expected to gain momentum through the end of the year. For 2016, 1.5 percent growth over 2015 is expected while 13 percent growth is forecast in 2017.

Fab equipment spending ─ including new, secondary, and in-house ─ was down 2 percent in 2015. However, activity in the 3D NAND, 10nm Logic, and Foundry segments is expected to push equipment spending up to US$36 billion in 2016, 1.5 percent over 2015, and to $40.7 billion in 2017, up 13 percent. Equipment will be purchased for existing fabs, lines that are being converted to leading-edge technology, as well as equipment going into new fabs and lines that began construction in the prior year.

Table 1 shows the regions where new fabs and lines are expected to be built in 2016 and 2017. These projects have a probability of 60 percent or higher, according to SEMI’s data. While some projects are already underway, others may be subject to delays or pushed into the following year. The SEMI World Fab Forecast report, published May 31, 2016, provides more details about the construction boom.

new fab lines

Breaking down the 19 projects by wafer size, 12 of the fabs and lines are for 300mm (12-inch), four for 200mm, and three LED fabs (150mm, 100mm, and 50mm). Not including LEDs, the potential installed capacity of all these fabs and lines is estimated at almost 210,000 wafer starts per month (in 300mm equivalents) for fabs beginning construction in 2016 and 330,000 wafer starts per month (in 300mm equivalents) for fabs beginning construction in 2017.

In addition to announced and planned new fabs and lines, SEMI’s World Fab Forecast provides information about existing fabs and lines with associated construction spending, e.g. when a cleanroom is converted to a larger wafer size or a different product type.

In addition, the transition to leading-edge technologies (as we can see in planar technologies, but also in 3D technologies) creates a reduction in installed capacity within an existing fab. To compensate for this reduction, more conversions of older fabs may take place, but also additional new fabs and lines may begin construction.

For insight into semiconductor manufacturing in 2016 and 2017 with details about capex for construction projects, fab equipping, technology levels, and products, visit the SEMI Fab Database webpage and order the SEMI World Fab Forecast Report. The report, in Excel format, tracks spending and capacities for over 1,100 facilities including over 60 future facilities, across industry segments from Analog, Power, Logic, MPU, Memory, and Foundry to MEMS and LEDs facilities.

By Dr. Phil Garrou, Contributing Editor

Dongkai ShangguanDr. Dongkai Shangguan is currently the Chief Marketing Officer of STATS ChipPAC. Previously, Dongkai served as the founding CEO of the National Center for Advanced Packaging Co., Ltd. (“NCAP China”), worked for 10 years at Ford Motor Company in various technical and management functions, and for 11 years at Flextronics as Corporate Vice President of Global Advanced Technology.

SST: In 2015, STATS ChipPAC was acquired by JCET (Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology Co., Ltd.) and organized as a business unit. Can you describe some of the personnel changes that have taken place?

DS: Following the acquisition, STATS ChipPAC became a business unit under the JCET Group with the same organizational structure as what we had prior to the completion of the deal. Dr. Han Byung Joon (BJ) was appointed to be Co-President and Chief Executive Officer with Tan Lay Koon. Dr. Han had served as our Chief Technology Officer since 1999. He and Lay Koon had worked very closely over the years and together led the company through the first three months following the acquisition. After the initial transition period, Dr. Han became the President and CEO for the company. Reporting directly to JCET Group Chairman Wang XinChao, Dr. Han has full responsibility for the business results of STATS ChipPAC. He also serves as Chairman of the Technology Strategy Council for the JCET Group.

In August of last year, there were two additional executive appointments. Woo Kwek Kiong (KK) was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for the Company. Prior to joining us, KK was Chief Financial Officer at Advanpack Solutions Pte Ltd and ASTI Holdings Limited. Il Kwon (IK) Shim was promoted to Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer. IK has been with STATS ChipPAC since 2000 and prior to his promotion served as Head of Research and Development.

In December, Cindy Palar was appointed as Managing Director of STATS ChipPAC Singapore (SCS), where our FlexLineTM manufacturing is located. Cindy has been with the Company since 1999 and has held a number of senior management positions in Strategic Marketing, Pricing, Product Line Management and Demand/Capacity Planning.

JCET chose a light integration strategy for the acquisition in order to keep the focus on our customers and minimize any disruptions with our service and support. The organizational structure and operating systems for STATS ChipPAC have remained the same as before the acquisition, providing a smooth transition following the deal completion. 

SST: We know that JCET is the largest semiconductor packaging and test provider in China through JCAP (Jiangyin Changdian Advanced Packaging Co., Ltd. ) a subsidiary of JCET which provides wafer bump (solder bump, gold bump, pillar bump), Wafer Level Chip Scale Packaging, assembly and test. Can you differentiate between what JCET SCP and JCET JCAP will offer the customer as divisions of JCET?

DS: JCET has extremely solid credentials in turnkey wirebond packaging, servicing a broad range of applications with very good relationship with a large number of customers, particularly in China. JCET focuses primarily on leaded wirebond and flip chip packaging including assembly of discrete packages.

JCAP provides turnkey services including wafer bump, probe and assembly. JCAP is a leader in advanced wafer bump technology (solder bump, gold bump, copper pillar bump) and Wafer Level Chip Scale Packaging (WLCSP).

STATS ChipPAC, with the strongest IP portfolio in the OSAT industry for many years, clearly brings very strong advanced packaging technologies to the JCET Group, particularly in Fan-out Wafer Level Packaging (FOWLP), laminate-based Flip Chip, package-on-package (PoP), and System-in-Package (SiP) capabilities. STATS ChipPAC will continue to be the FOWLP and SiP center of competency for the JCET Group, and all laminate based flip chip activities are being consolidated into STATS ChipPAC factories.

As a combined Group, the JCET Group is now able to address a much broader total available market (TAM). While each JCET Business Unit has its area of expertise, we are already seeing benefits of cross-selling services to our customers, particularly in China.

SST:. Will the SCP product focus change any in the coming years? Can you share any packaging roadmaps?

DS: No, the merger does not change STATS ChipPAC’s focus or roadmap at all. Our focus for the coming years continues to be on expanding our SiP and FOWLP business, in addition to our core turnkey wirebond, flip chip and PoP packaging business areas. STATS ChipPAC is firmly committed to our industry leading eWLB technology as supported by our eWLB line expansion occurring throughout this year. While we will continue to develop advanced 2.5D and 3D FOWLP package designs, we will be implementing further process optimizations, such as panel manufacturing, which will drive significantly better capital intensity and a lower unit cost for larger body sizes.

SST: Have/will SCP manufacturing facilities in Singapore moved/move to China?

DS: There is currently no plan for any relocation. Our STATS ChipPAC Singapore (SCS) facility remains the hub of the JCET Group’s effort in FOWLP as well as being our largest Test site. SCS is an important location for several Tier 1 customers who prefer having Singapore as part of their supply chain for regional diversity and other commercial reasons.

SST: What is JCET relationship to SMIC? We noticed with interest that SMIC recently increased its ownership position to 14.25% making it the single largest owner of JCET.

DS: JCET has entered into asset purchase transaction whereby it will acquire the remaining shareholding in STATS ChipPAC from the National Integrated Circuit Fund and SMIC. Concurrent to the asset purchase transaction, JCET has entered into a subscription agreement with SMIC whereby SMIC will subscribe for approximately 150 million JCET shares for a consideration of about US$400 million. After the proposed transaction, SMIC will have a 14.25% stake in JCET Group, resulting in JCET owning 100% of STATS ChipPAC. This transaction will strengthen the equity base of JCET with stronger shareholders, and create better operational synergies. These transactions have no significant impact to STATS ChipPAC’s organizational structure or management team, and will not impact our service to our customers.

SST: China’s government policy “National Guidelines for Development and Promotion of the IC Industry,” which was released in June of 2014 calls for expansion and vertical integration of the domestic semiconductor value chain with domestic sales revenue targets of $56B by 2020. How does packaging fit into these overall goals?

DS: The Chinese government correctly identifies packaging and test as critical parts of the overall semiconductor ecosystem and, therefore, packaging is an integral part of these goals. As the largest OSAT in China, the JCET Group is uniquely positioned to participate in and capitalize on the emergence and growth of the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem. With the addition of the advanced packaging technologies from STATS ChipPAC, the JCET Group is well positioned to help enable this growth.

SST: What new products or technologies would you like to share with our readers?

DS: We are very proud to have passed a significant milestone for 1B units shipped for our industry leading eWLB FOWLP product. The eWLB platform has an incredible amount of traction now and the technology roadmap around this platform is resonating with an increasingly diverse range of customers, from its traditional base in mobile communications into areas such as Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) in automobiles and bio-processors in the wearables market. Furthermore, as a platform for system integration, enabled by finer L/S and multiple RDL’s, eWLB SiP in various configurations (such as multi-die with passives, PoP, 2.5D, etc) has a tremendous future.

SiP capabilities are incredibly important to those customers driving miniaturization as well as integration and modularization of functionality. This represents a major new source of TAM for the OSAT industry. We feel we are extremely well positioned in this area, as we have developed comprehensive capabilities, including design and simulation, advanced packaging technologies, high density SMT component placement, advanced molding for complex topographies, conformal shielding, and system level test, for a wide variety of SiPs/modules in multiple market segments. Depending on the application requirements and product complexity, we have developed various SiP configurations ranging from conventional 2D modules with multiple active and passive components, interconnected through flip chip, wire bonding, and SMT, to more complex modules such as Package-in-Package (PiP), eWLB Package-on-Package (eWLB PoP), 2.5D and 3D solutions.

We anticipate that our strength in these areas coupled with our unique position in the highest growth region, China, will propel our growth well beyond the industry average going forward.

The 2015 analog market grew 2% to $47.0 billion.  Combined sales of general-purpose analog products (amplifiers/comparators, interface, power management, an signal conversion devices) increased 2% to $19.1 billion and sales of application-specific analog devices also improved 2% to $27.9 billion. Among analog IC products the market for signal conversion devices showed the largest increase in 2015, growing 14% to $2.9 billion.

IC Insights’ ranking of top analog IC suppliers for 2015 is shown in Figure 1.  Collectively, these 10 companies accounted for 56% of global analog sales last year, down slightly from 57% in 2014. Among the top suppliers, nine had analog sales in excess of $1.0 billion; five of these had sales in excess of $2.0 billion.  Only tenth-ranked Renesas fell short of the $1.0 billion mark.  With a 10% increase, NXP’s analog sales outperformed the total analog market by the widest margin (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Figure 1

Texas Instruments was again the leading supplier of analog devices in 2015 with $8.3 billion in sales, which was good for 18% marketshare.  TI’s analog sales slightly surpassed the combined revenue of the next three-largest analog suppliers, and represented 69% of its total semiconductor revenue last year.  TI has always been a major player in analog, but beginning in 2009, it doubled down on its long-term efforts to dominate this market segment. That year, TI became the first company to manufacture analog devices on 300mm equipment.  It purchased 300mm manufacturing tools from defunct Qimonda and transferred it to its existing fabs in Texas to build analog ICs.  In 2010, TI acquired two wafer fabs operated by Spansion in Aizu-Wakamatsu, Japan, and a fully equipped 200mm fab in Chengdu, China from Cension Semiconductor Manufacturing.  Both facilities were converted and immediately put to use making analog ICs.  In April 2011, TI acquired National Semiconductor—its rival in many analog markets—for $6.5 billion.

TI also strengthened its analog position by transitioning to 300mm manufacturing capacity at its newer RFAB and its older DMOS 6 fabs.  Aside from boosting its analog manufacturing capacity, moving to 300mm wafer helped reduce total production costs by 40%, according to the company.

Other changes seen in the 2015 ranking include Infineon moving up one place to become the second-largest analog supplier and Skyworks Solutions moving up two spots to #3.  ST slipped from #2 in 2014 to #5 in the 2015 ranking following its 13% decline in analog sales, which it attributed to soft equipment sales (computer, consumer, automotive, industrial) among its primary customers. Collectively, Infineon, NXP, and ST—Europe’s three-largest IC suppliers—accounted for 15% analog marketshare last year.

Skyworks continues to enjoy solid analog sales due to design wins with smartphones providers around the world. Skyworks Solutions makes analog and mixed signal semiconductors for Apple, Samsung, and other suppliers of mobile devices.  Many of Skyworks’ power amplifier components are found in Apple’s iPhone 6 models.  It has been estimated that Skyworks supplies $4 worth of content for every iPhone 6 handset.

Although highly focused in mobile markets, Skyworks plans to expand into the automotive, home, and wearable markets to develop its presence in applications linked to the Internet of Things.  Analog ICs such as audio amplifiers, op amps, and analog switches are building blocks for creating wearable applications. Skyworks’ wireless technology is used in General Electric healthcare equipment, and the company recently sealed a deal to supply high-performance filter solutions to Panasonic.

Analog Devices’ analog sales grew 2% last year.  One of its key analog ICs is a device that enables 3D/Force Touch, a feature available on the Apple Watch, the latest iPhones, and new generations of the iPad, that uses tiny electrodes to distinguish between a light tap and a deep press to trigger contextually specific controls.

IC Insights forecasts the total analog market to grow 4% this year, reaching $49.1 billion and then surpass the $50.0 billion mark for the first time in 2017 as analog sales climb to an expected $51.4 billion. From 2015 to 2020, the analog market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6%, one point higher than the total IC market.

Communication and computer systems are forecast to be two of the three largest system applications for IC sales in every global region—Americas, Europe, Japan, and Asia-Pacific—this year, according to data presented in the upcoming Update to the 2016 edition of IC Insights’ IC Market Drivers, A Study of Emerging and Major End-Use Applications Fueling Demand for Integrated Circuits. Communications applications are expected to capture nearly 43% of IC sales in Asia-Pacific and 39% of the revenue in the Americas region this year. Communications and computer applications are forecast to tie as the largest end-use markets in Japan while in Europe, communications apps are forecast to trail computer applications with 23.5% of ICs sales (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Figure 1

Consumer systems are forecast to be the third-largest end-use category for ICs in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions in 2016. Automotive is expected to be the second-largest system application for ICs in Europe, which has been a bastion for automotive electronics systems development. Each of Europe’s three largest IC manufacturers—Infineon, ST, and NXP—is annually ranked among the top suppliers of automotive ICs. In addition, the automotive segment is forecast to edge ahead of the consumer segment in Japan in 2016 to become the third-largest end-use market for ICs in that country.

Collectively, communications, computers, and consumer systems are projected to account for 86.4% of IC sales in the Americas this year (an increase of half a percentage point from 2015) and 89.5% in Asia-Pacific (a decrease of half a percentage point from 2015). This year, communications, computer, and automotive applications are forecast to represent 73.5% of IC sales in Japan and 78.8% of IC sales in Europe, the same percentage as in 2015.

For more than three decades, computer applications were the largest market for IC sales but that changed in 2013 when the global communications IC market took over the top spot due to steady strong growth in smartphones and weakening demand for desktop and notebook personal computers. Figure 2 shows that globally, communications systems are now forecast to represent 39.3% of the $291.3 billion IC market in 2016 compared to 34.7% for computers, and 10.7% for consumer, which has gradually been losing marketshare for several years. IC sales to the automotive market are forecast to represent only about 7.4% of the total IC sales this year but from 2015-2019, this segment is projected to rise by a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0%, fastest among all the end-use applications.

Figure 2

Figure 2

Additional details on end-use markets for ICs are included in the 2016 edition of IC Insights’ IC Market Drivers—A Study of Emerging and Major End-Use Applications Fueling Demand for Integrated Circuits.

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM).

The current memory landscape spans from venerable DRAM to hard disk drives to ubiquitous flash. But in the last several years PCM has attracted the industry’s attention as a potential universal memory technology based on its combination of read/write speed, endurance, non-volatility and density. For example, PCM doesn’t lose data when powered off, unlike DRAM, and the technology can endure at least 10 million write cycles, compared to an average flash USB stick, which tops out at 3,000 write cycles.

This research breakthrough provides fast and easy storage to capture the exponential growth of data from mobile devices and the Internet of Things.

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM). This research breakthrough provides fast and easy storage to capture the exponential growth of data from mobile devices and the Internet of Things. In this photo, IBM scientist , Nikolaos Papandreou holds the PCM chip under a magnifying lens in his lab. (Credit: IBM Research)

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM). This research breakthrough provides fast and easy storage to capture the exponential growth of data from mobile devices and the Internet of Things. In this photo, IBM scientist , Nikolaos Papandreou holds the PCM chip under a magnifying lens in his lab. (Credit: IBM Research)

Applications 

IBM scientists envision standalone PCM as well as hybrid applications, which combine PCM and flash storage together, with PCM as an extremely fast cache. For example, a mobile phone’s operating system could be stored in PCM, enabling the phone to launch in a few seconds. In the enterprise space, entire databases could be stored in PCM for blazing fast query processing for time-critical online applications, such as financial transactions.

Machine learning algorithms using large datasets will also see a speed boost by reducing the latency overhead when reading the data between iterations.

How PCM Works 

PCM materials exhibit two stable states, the amorphous (without a clearly defined structure) and crystalline (with structure) phases, of low and high electrical conductivity, respectively.

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM). In this photo, the experimental multi-bit PCM chip used by IBM scientists is connected to a standard integrated circuit board. The chip consists of a 2 × 2 Mcell array with a 4- bank interleaved architecture. The memory array size is 2 × 1000 μm × 800 μm. The PCM cells are based on doped-chalcogenide alloy and were integrated into the prototype chip serving as a characterization vehicle in 90nm CMOS baseline technology. (Credit: IBM Research)

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM). In this photo, the experimental multi-bit PCM chip used by IBM scientists is connected to a standard integrated circuit board. The chip consists of a 2 × 2 Mcell array with a 4- bank interleaved architecture. The memory array size is 2 × 1000 μm × 800 μm. The PCM cells are based on doped-chalcogenide alloy and were integrated into the prototype chip serving as a characterization vehicle in 90nm CMOS baseline technology. (Credit: IBM Research)

To store a ‘0’ or a ‘1’, known as bits, on a PCM cell, a high or medium electrical current is applied to the material. A ‘0’ can be programmed to be written in the amorphous phase or a ‘1’ in the crystalline phase, or vice versa. Then to read the bit back, a low voltage is applied. This is how re-writable Blue-ray Discs* store videos.

Previously scientists at IBM and other institutes have successfully demonstrated the ability to store 1 bit per cell in PCM, but today at the IEEE International Memory Workshop in Paris, IBM scientists are presenting, for the first time, successfully storing 3 bits per cell in a 64k-cell array at elevated temperatures and after 1 million endurance cycles.

“Phase change memory is the first instantiation of a universal memory with properties of both DRAM and flash, thus answering one of the grand challenges of our industry,” said Dr. Haris Pozidis, an author of the paper and the manager of non-volatile memory research at IBM Research – Zurich. “Reaching 3 bits per cell is a significant milestone because at this density the cost of PCM will be significantly less than DRAM and closer to flash.”

To achieve multi-bit storage IBM scientists have developed two innovative enabling technologies: a set of drift-immune cell-state metrics and drift-tolerant coding and detection schemes.

More specifically, the new cell-state metrics measure a physical property of the PCM cell that remains stable over time, and are thus insensitive to drift, which affects the stability of the cell’s electrical conductivity with time. To provide additional robustness of the stored data in a cell over ambient temperature fluctuations a novel coding and detection scheme is employed. This scheme adaptively modifies the level thresholds that are used to detect the cell’s stored data so that they follow variations due to temperature change. As a result, the cell state can be read reliably over long time periods after the memory is programmed, thus offering non-volatility.

“Combined these advancements address the key challenges of multi-bit PCM, including drift, variability, temperature sensitivity and endurance cycling,” said Dr. Evangelos Eleftheriou, IBM Fellow.

The experimental multi-bit PCM chip used by IBM scientists is connected to a standard integrated circuit board. The chip consists of a 2 × 2 Mcell array with a 4- bank interleaved architecture. The memory array size is 2 × 1000 μm × 800 μm. The PCM cells are based on doped-chalcogenide alloy and were integrated into the prototype chip serving as a characterization vehicle in 90 nm CMOS baseline technology.

OpenPOWER 

At the 2016 OpenPOWER Summit in San Jose, CA, last month, IBM scientists demonstrated, for the first time, phase-change memory attached to POWER8-based servers (made by IBM and TYAN® Computer Corp.) via the CAPI (Coherent Accelerator Processor Interface) protocol. This technology leverages the low latency and small access granularity of PCM, the efficiency of the OpenPOWER architecture and the CAPI protocol. In the demonstration the scientists measured very low and consistent latency for 128-byte read/writes between the PCM chips and the POWER8 processor.

For more information on today’s announcement watch this video: https://youtu.be/q3dIw3uAyE8. Continue the conversation at @IBMResearch #3bitPCM.

IC Insights will release its May Update to the 2016 McClean Report later this month.  This Update includes a discussion of the 1Q16 semiconductor industry market results, an update of the capital spending forecast by company, a review of the IC market by electronic system type, and a look at the top-25 1Q16 semiconductor suppliers (the top 20 1Q16 semiconductor suppliers are covered in this research bulletin).

The top-20 worldwide semiconductor (IC and O S D—optoelectronic, sensor, and discrete) sales ranking for 1Q16 is shown in Figure 1.  It includes eight suppliers headquartered in the U.S., three in Japan, three in Taiwan, three in Europe, two in South Korea, and one in Singapore, a relatively broad representation of geographic regions.

The top-20 ranking includes three pure-play foundries (TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and UMC) and six fabless companies. If the three pure-play foundries were excluded from the top-20 ranking, U.S.-based IDM ON Semiconductor ($817 million), China-based fabless supplier HiSilicon ($810 million), and Japan-based IDM Sharp ($800 million) would have been ranked in the 18th, 19th, and 20th positions, respectively.

IC Insights includes foundries in the top-20 semiconductor supplier ranking since it has always viewed the ranking as a top supplier list, not a marketshare ranking, and realizes that in some cases the semiconductor sales are double counted.  With many of our clients being vendors to the semiconductor industry (supplying equipment, chemicals, gases, etc.), excluding large IC manufacturers like the foundries would leave significant “holes” in the list of top semiconductor suppliers.  As shown in the listing, the foundries and fabless companies are identified.  In the April Update to The McClean Report, marketshare rankings of IC suppliers by product type were presented and foundries were excluded from these listings.

Overall, the top-20 list shown in Figure 1 is provided as a guideline to identify which companies are the leading semiconductor suppliers, whether they are IDMs, fabless companies, or foundries.

Figure 1

Figure 1

In total, the top-20 semiconductor companies’ sales declined by 6% in 1Q16/1Q15, one point less than the total worldwide semiconductor industry decline of 7%.  Although, in total, the top-20 1Q16 semiconductor companies registered a moderate 6% drop, there were seven companies that displayed a double-digit 1Q16/1Q15 decline and three that registered a ≥25% fall (with memory giants Micron and SK Hynix posting the worst results).  Half of the top-20 companies had sales of at least $2.0 billion in 1Q16.  As shown, it took $832 million in quarterly sales just to make it into the 1Q16 top-20 semiconductor supplier list.

There was one new entrant into the top-20 ranking in 1Q16—U.S.-based fabless supplier AMD.  AMD had a particularly rough 1Q16 and saw its sales drop 19% year-over-year to $832 million, which was about half the $1,589 million in sales the company logged just over two years ago in 4Q13.  Although AMD did not have a good 1Q16, Japan-based Sharp, the only company that fell from the top-20 ranking, faired even worse with its 1Q16/1Q15 sales plunging by 30%!

In order to allow for more useful year-over-year comparisons, acquired/merged semiconductor company sales results were combined for both 1Q15 and 1Q16, regardless of when the acquisition or merger occurred.  For example, although Intel’s acquisition of Altera did not close until late December of 2015, Altera’s 1Q15 sales ($435 million) were added to Intel’s 1Q15 sales ($11,632 million) to come up with the $12,067 million shown in Figure 1 for Intel’s 1Q15 sales.  The same method was used to calculate the 1Q15 sales for Broadcom Ltd. (Avago/Broadcom), NXP (NXP/Freescale), and GlobalFoundries (GlobalFoundries/IBM).

Apple is an anomaly in the top-20 ranking with regards to major semiconductor suppliers. The company designs and uses its processors only in its own products—there are no sales of the company’s MPUs to other system makers. Apple’s custom ARM-based SoC processors had a “sales value” of $1,390 million in 1Q16, up 10% from $1,260 million in 1Q15.  Apple’s MPUs have been used in 13 iPhone handset designs since 2007 and a dozen iPad tablet models since 2010 as well as in iPod portable media players, smartwatches, and Apple TV units.  Apple’s custom processors—such as the 64-bit A9 used in iPhone 6s and 6s Plus handsets introduced in September 2015 and the new iPhone 6SE launched in March 2016—are made by pure-play foundry TSMC and IDM foundry Samsung.

Intel remained firmly in control of the number one spot in 1Q16.  In fact, it increased its lead over Samsung’s semiconductor sales from 29% in 1Q15 to 40% in 1Q16.  The biggest moves in the ranking were made by the new Broadcom Ltd. (Avago/Broadcom) and Nvidia, each of which jumped up three positions in 1Q16 as compared to 1Q15.

As would be expected, given the possible acquisitions and mergers that could/will occur this year (e.g., Microchip/Atmel), as well as any new ones that may develop, the top-20 semiconductor ranking is likely to undergo a significant amount of upheaval over the next few years as the semiconductor industry continues along its path to maturity.

Worldwide semiconductor capital spending is projected to decline 2 percent in 2016, to $62.8 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. (see Table 1). This is up from the estimated 4.7 percent decline in Gartner’s previous quarterly forecast.

“While the first quarter 2016 forecast has improved from a projected decline of 4.7 percent in the previous quarter’s forecast, the 2 percent decline in the market for 2016 is still bleak,” said David Christensen, senior research analyst at Gartner. “Excess inventory and weak demand for PCs, tablets, and mobile products continue to plague the semiconductor industry, resulting in a slow growth rate that began in late 2015 and is continuing into 2016.”

Table 1

Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Spending and Equipment Spending Forecast, 2015-2018 (Millions of Dollars)

2015

2016

2017

2018

Semiconductor Capital Spending ($M)

64,062.9

62,795.3

65,528.5

70,009.5

Growth (%)

-0.8

-2.0

4.4

6.8

Wafer-Level Manufacturing Equipment ($M)

33,248.1

32,642.0

34,897.6

37,641.1

Growth (%)

-1.1

-1.8

6.9

7.9

Wafer Fab Equipment ($M)

31,485.4

30,841.9

32,930.3

35,443.4

Growth (%)

-1.3

-2.0

6.8

7.6

Wafer-Level Packaging and Assembly Equipment ($M)

1,762.7

1,800.2

1,967.3

2,197.7

Growth (%)

4.1

2.1

9.3

11.7

Source: Gartner (May 2016)

“The slowdown in the devices market has driven semiconductor producers to be conservative with their capital spending plans,” said Mr. Christensen. “This year, leading semiconductor manufacturers are responding to anticipated weak demand from semiconductors and preparing for new growth in leading-edge technologies in 2017.”

In addition, the aggressive pursuit of semiconductor manufacturing capability by the Chinese government is an issue that cannot be ignored by the semiconductor manufacturing industry. In the last year, there has been consolidation and merger and acquisition (M&A) activity with specific offers from various Chinese-based entities, indicating the aggressiveness of the Chinese. This will dramatically affect the competitive landscape of global semiconductor manufacturing in the next few years, as China is now a major market for semiconductor usage and manufacturing.

Looking forward, the market is expected to return to growth in 2017. Increased demand for 10 nanometer (nm) and 3D NAND process development in memory and logic/foundry will drive overall spending to grow 4.4 percent in 2017.

This research is produced by Gartner’s Semiconductor Manufacturing program. This research program, which is part of the overall semiconductor research group, provides a comprehensive view of the entire semiconductor industry, from manufacturing to device and application market trends. Additional analysis on the outlook for the semiconductor market can be found at “Forecast Analysis: Capital Spending and Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment, Worldwide, 1Q16.”