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Samsung Electronics announced plans on Monday to invest $14.7 billion (15.6 trillion Korean won) in a new semiconductor fabrication facility in Pyeongtaek, South Korea to meet growing demand from smartphones, enterprise computing and the emerging “Internet of Things” market.

Samsung_PM853T_SSD

The new fabrication plant is expected to help Samsung Electronics to develop a semiconductor cluster in Giheung, Hwaseong and Pyeongtaek to meet growing demand for advanced semiconductor products. However, the company wrote on its website that it has not determined the specific products to be manufactured.

The fab will be built in the 790,000 square meter site in Godeok Industrial Complex, where construction will begin during the first half of next year, with operations scheduled to begin sometime during the second half of 2017, Samsung told the press on Monday.

The investment “will significantly influence the shaping of Samsung’s future semiconductor business,” said Kwon Oh-hyun, co-chief and a vice chairman of Samsung Electronics.

Samsung’s semiconductor business announced revenue of close to 9.8 trillion Korean won in the second quarter.

A Samsung spokeswoman said a decision has not been taken yet on what type of chips would be made at the new fab and the manufacturing process. The company said in July it was on track to roll out 14nm manufacturing process in volume by the end of this year.

SEMI recently completed its annual silicon shipment forecast for the semiconductor industry. This forecast provides an outlook for the demand in silicon units for the period 2014-–2016. The results show polished and epitaxial silicon shipments totaling 9,410 million square inches in 2014; 9,840 million square inches in 2015; and 10,163 million square inches in 2016 (refer to table below). Total wafer shipments this year are expected to finally exceed the market high set in 2010 and are forecast to continue shipping at record levels in 2015 and 2016.

“Silicon shipment levels are robust this year,” said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI.  “We expect silicon shipment volume to set a record high this year, followed by two consecutive years of growth.”

2014 Silicon Shipment Forecast

Total Electronic Grade Silicon Slices* – Does not Include Non-Polished

(Millions of Square Inches)

 

Actual

Forecast
 

2012

2013

2014F

2015F

2016F
MSI

8,814

8,834

9,410

9,840

10,163
Annual Growth

0%

0%

7%

5%

3%

*Shipments are for semiconductor applications only and do not include solar applications

Silicon wafers are the fundamental building material for semiconductors, which in turn, are vital components of virtually all electronics goods, including computers, telecommunications products, and consumer electronics. The highly-engineered thin round disks are produced in various diameters (from one inch to 12 inches) and serve as the substrate material on which most semiconductor devices or “chips” are fabricated.

All data cited in this release is inclusive of polished silicon wafers, including virgin test wafers and epitaxial silicon wafers shipped by the wafer manufacturers to the end-users. Data do not include non-polished or reclaimed wafers.

The Silicon Manufacturers Group acts as an independent special interest group within the SEMI structure and is open to SEMI members involved in manufacturing polycrystalline silicon, monocrystalline silicon or silicon wafers (e.g., as cut, polished, epi, etc.). The purpose of the group is to facilitate collective efforts on issues related to the silicon industry including the development of market information and statistics about the silicon industry and the semiconductor market.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing and design, today announced that worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $28.4 billion for the month of August 2014, an increase of 9.4 percent from the August 2013 total of $26 billion and an uptick of 1.3 percent over the July 2014 total of $28.1 billion. Year-to-date sales through August are 10.1 percent higher than they were at the same point in 2013. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“The global semiconductor market continued to demonstrate broad and sustained strength in August, and sales remain well ahead of last year’s pace,” said Brian Toohey, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Demand is strong across nearly all semiconductor product categories, and the industry has now posted sequential monthly growth for six consecutive months, thanks in part to continued strength in the Americas market.”

Toohey also noted that continued U.S. semiconductor industry strength bodes well for the overall U.S. economy. He cited an SIA whitepaper released this week that found that the U.S. semiconductor industry is one of the top contributors to U.S. economic growth of any domestic manufacturing industry. To learn more, read the SIA whitepaper here.

Regionally, year-to-year sales increased in Asia Pacific (12.3 percent), Europe (10.9 percent), and the Americas (7 percent), but decreased slightly in Japan (-1.7 percent). Sales were up compared to the previous month in the Americas (2.3 percent) and Asia Pacific (1.7 percent), held flat in Japan, and decreased slightly in Europe (-1.3 percent). Sales increased across all regions for the three-month period from June to August compared to the previous three-month period from March to May.

August 2014

Billions

Month-to-Month Sales

Market Last Month Current Month % Change
Americas

5.43

5.55

2.3%
Europe

3.27

3.23

-1.3%
Japan

2.99

2.99

0.0%
Asia Pacific

16.38

16.66

1.7%
Total

28.07

28.44

1.3%

Year-to-Year Sales

Market Last Year Current Month % Change
Americas

5.19

5.55

7.0%
Europe

2.91

3.23

10.9%
Japan

3.05

2.99

-1.7%
Asia Pacific

14.83

16.66

12.3%
Total

25.98

28.44

9.4%

Three-Month-Moving Average Sales

Market Mar/Apr/May June/July/August % Change
Americas

5.07

5.55

9.6%
Europe

3.13

3.23

3.4%
Japan

2.87

2.99

4.2%
Asia Pacific

15.71

16.66

6.0%
Total

26.78

28.44

6.2%

 

Emergence of new wide bandgap (WBG) technologies such as SiC and GaN materials will definitely reshape part of the established power electronics industry, according to Yole Développement (Yole). SiC and GaN benefits are now well known. Indeed such materials offer: higher frequency switching – higher power density – higher junction temperature – higher voltage capabilities.

Yole will present its vision of the Power Electronics Industry, at the Power Electronics Conference “The ultimate path to CO2 reduction,” taking place from October 8 to 9, in parallel of SEMICON Europa 2014. During the conference, Yole will detail the status of the Power Electronics industry, its technology trends and related players, taking into account the introduction of new materials such as SiC and GaN.

illus_sic_gan_powerelectronicsconference_yole_oct2014

From the silicon carbide side, its adoption for train applications is a main trend. It confirms that SiC could play an important role in the high and very high voltage ranges (up to 1.7kV) in a near future.

“At Yole, we stay convinced that these voltage and related power ranges, are exactly the place-to-be for SiC technology,” says Pierric Gueguen, Senior Market Analyst, Power Electronics at Yole Développement (Source: SiC Modules, Devices and Substrates for Power Electronics report, October 2014).

Last June, Yole released its Power GaN Market report confirming as well the introduction of GaN in the Power Electronics market. Yole’s analysts identify numerous applications, especially for low voltage range such as power supply/PFC. According to this technology & market analysis, the power supply/PFC segment will dominate the business from 2015 to 2018 with 50 percent of the device sales.

However, with such new wide bandgap (WBG) technologies, industrials face new technical challenges. Indeed, current packaging solutions do not answer to GaN and SiC specifications. Under this context, some companies develop a new enhanced package strategy to improve performances. According to Yole, based on these new packaging solutions, the power modules market should reach US$ 200 million in 2016.

At SEMICON Europa 2014, the market research and consulting company, Yole will present an overview of the Power Electronic sector. Based on its strong expertise in this area, the company will detail the market structure, its supply chain, key players and technology challenges. With its participation, Yole Développement would like to reaffirm its positioning in the Power Electronics industry and develop its network.

“SEMICON Europa 2014 is the place to meet leaders of the industry, from material suppliers to equipment makers including device and modules manufacturers; this event allows our team to exchange about market trends and technology challenges, to better understand companies’ strategy and market structure,” says Jean-Christophe Eloy, President & CEO, Yole Développement.

SEMICON Europa will feature semiconductor device technology for a wide range of applications, equipment, materials, services and will provide access to critical information relative to device manufacturing, partnership opportunities, next-generation fab requirements  and funding. The event will be held in France (7-9 October in Grenoble) for the first time with an expanded exhibition (25 percent larger). The opportunities and challenges in microelectronics will be discussed in more than 70 sessions with 300 speakers.

Global capital spending on semiconductor equipment is projected to grow  21.1 percent in 2014 and 21.0 percent in 2015. According to the August edition of the SEMI World Fab Forecast, semiconductor equipment spending will increase from $29 billion in 2013 to $42 billion in 2015.

SEMI projects back-to-back years of double-digit growth in Europe and Mid-East semiconductor equipment sales. The SEMI outlook forecasts that the European/Mid-East semiconductor equipment market will grow 11 percent in 2014 (reaching $1.9 billion) and 100 percent in 2015 (reaching $3.8 billion). In terms of percentage of worldwide sales, the Europe/MidEast region’s share is expected to increase from 5.9 percent in 2013 to 9.0 percent in 2015.

The event offers several semiconductor Front-End manufacturing highlights, including the 18th Fab Managers Forum, which is themed “Improving Productivity for Mature Fabs.” Speakers from IMEC, Infineon AG, and Bosch will present on Internet of Things, Automation Level in Fabs, and Smart Connected Sensor Devices. The prospect for future 450mm wafer processing, as well other technical and business challenges in semiconductor and related micro and nano-electronics industries, will be addressed at SEMICON Europa.

In the two-day special program, “450mm Innovations and Synergies for Smaller Diameters,” leaders will present on progress, research, and collaboration on the future of the semiconductor manufacturing. The session includes presentations from Global 450 Consortium, European Commission, ASM Europe BV, and RECIF Technologies.

In addition, a Secondary Equipment Session, themed “Fundamental to European Competitiveness?”, features presentations from  Infineon Technologies AG, STMicroelectronics, and Robert Bosch GmbH.

Other conference programs at SEMICON Europa will explore critical issues in Fab Management, Advanced Packaging, 3DIC, Test and MEMS. In addition, SEMICON Europa this year features a special focus on Electronic Applications (Imaging Conference and Nanoelectronics for Healthcare Conference) and Electronic Components (Low Power Conference and Power Electronics Conference).

Now in its third decade, SEMICON Europa’s new location this year leverages the growing strengths of Grenoble’s technology businesses, academia and institutions  to showcase a diverse array of products, solutions and opportunities spanning the most advanced innovations in the European microelectronics industry.  For more information on exhibition opportunities, visit www.semiconeuropa.org.  For more information on SEMI Europe, visit: www.semi.org/eu.

SEMICON Europa 2014 will be held on 7-9 October in conjunction with the Plastics Electronics Conference and Exhibition (www.plastic-electronics.org) to showcase Europe’s most innovative companies, institutions and people.

NANIUM today announced it has successfully launched the industry’s largest Wafer-Level Chip Scale Package (WLCSP) in volume. The final units measure 25mm x 23mm and are produced on 300mm wafers, a packaging solution with proven manufacturability that was entirely developed in-house.

“Our customer, Custom Silicon Solutions, is a provider of complex mixed-signal ASIC solutions. We were requested to deliver a customized Fan-In Wafer-Level Packaging/ WLCSP solution beyond common practice, as it was nine times larger in area. Standard WLCSPs usually range up to 8mm x 8mm, in some extreme cases up to 10mm x 10mm,, said Steffen Kroehnert, Director of Technology at NANIUM.

Mike McDaid, Director of Sales at CSS, commented: “After completing a very successful high volume run of a 65nm product in eWLB at NANIUM, we approached them with our next 28nm WLCSP requirements. The first article worked as promised and enabled CSS to get to market quickly with an ASIC which is unprecedented by several times in thermal and computational performance. No other package solution in existence would have achieved the low lead resistance and high reliability we demanded. This ASIC in NANIUM’s WLCSP establishes a new world class of integration, beyond VLSI-SOC (Very Large Scale Integration System-on-Chip). The final product is just about the maximum reticle size allowed and consumes hundreds of Watts.”

The wafers with the high-performance digital chips are produced with 28nm CMOS technology and contain over 5.5 billion transistors, one of the largest transistor-count chip produced by Global Foundries. Once produced in Dresden, Germany, wafers are sent to NANIUM for packaging. Such large dies are usually packaged in Wirebond-BGA or FlipChip-BGA with a small bump pitch, applying underfill material between bumped die and FlipChip substrate to ensure the required board-level reliability. The WLCSP solution developed by NANIUM relies on a high count of 1,188 solder balls at a wide BGA pitch of 0.7mm. It has successfully passed more than 400 temperature cycles on board, as stipulated by the IPC-9701 (TC2) standard, the most critical reliability test for such device.

“It was something new that had never been accomplished in WLCSP before, and we were extremely fortunate that NANIUM decided to take on the challenge,” said Mike McDaid. “Additionally, we were very pleased with the collaborative working process with NANIUM’s engineers. Even when quite formidable design issues were encountered, they proved to be competent, detail-oriented, communicated well and respected the time constraints. We also did a thorough quality audit on-site and were very impressed with the entire manufacturing flow.”

Steffen Kroehnert also commented that “we have been very excited about taking this challenge. At NANIUM, we do our best to understand the needs of our customers and tailor solutions accordingly. CSS has been very satisfied with the performance and the reliability of the product and has approved it for release to volume manufacturing.”

WLCSP is a technology in the semiconductor packaging industry that offers the smallest package form-factor possible. It enables low-cost manufacturing, and a high performance suitable for low I/O density. WLCSP’s product applications include Mobile and consumer products, Wireless connectivity, MEMS and Sensors.

Rudolph Technologies has introduced its new SONUS Technology for measuring thick films and film stacks used in copper pillar bumps and for detecting defects, such as voids, in through silicon vias (TSVs). Copper pillar bumps are a critical component of many advanced packaging technologies and TSVs provide a means for signals to pass through multiple vertically stacked chips in three dimensional integrated circuits (3DIC). The new SONUS Technology is non-contact and non-destructive, and is designed to provide faster, less costly measurements and greater sensitivity to smaller defects than existing alternatives such as X-ray tomography and acoustic microscopy.

“SONUS Technology meets a critical need for measuring and inspecting the structures used to connect chips to each other and to the outside world,” said Tim Kryman, Rudolph’s director of metrology product management. “Copper pillar bumps and TSVs are critical interconnect technologies enabling 2.5D and 3D packaging. The mechanical integrity of the interconnect and final device performance are directly dependent on tight control of the plating processes used to create copper pillar bumps. Likewise, the quality of the TSV fill is critical to the electrical performance of stacked devices. This new technology allows us to measure individual films and film stacks with thicknesses up to 100µm, and detect voids as small as 0.5µm in TSVs with aspect ratios of 10:1 or greater.”

Kryman added, “SONUS Technology builds on the expertise we developed in acoustic metrology for our industry-standard MetaPULSE systems, which are widely used for front-end metal film metrology. By offering similar improvements in yield and time-to-profitability in high volume manufacturing (HVM), SONUS offers a compelling value proposition to advanced packaging customers.”

Both MetaPULSE and SONUS systems use a laser to initiate an acoustic disturbance at the surface of the sample. As the acoustic wave travels down through the film stack, it is partially reflected at interfaces between different materials. Although the detection schemes are different, the reflected waves are detected when they return to the surface and the elapsed time is used to calculate the thickness of each layer. In the case of SONUS Technology, two lasers are used. The first laser excites the sample and the second probes for the returning acoustics. This decouples excitation and detection allowing SONUS to continuously probe the sample resulting in a much larger film thickness range. So, where MetaPULSE can measure metal films and stacks to ~10 microns, SONUS can measure films in excess of 100 microns. In addition, SONUS Technology’s use of interferometry to characterize the surface displacement provides a rich data set that can be analyzed to not only characterize film thickness, but perform defect detection.

The primary alternatives for such measurements are X-ray based tomographic analysis and acoustic microscopy. SONUS Technology’s ability to detect voids as small as half a micrometer is approximately twice as good as current X-ray techniques, which have a spatial resolution of about 1 micrometer. Acoustic microscopy can make similar measurements, but the sample must be immersed in water, which, though not strictly destructive, does effectively preclude the return of the sample to production. SONUS is both non-contact and non-destructive and is designed for R&D and high-volume manufacturing.

In the run up to the product introduction, Rudolph worked closely with TEL NEXX to develop SONUS-based process control for pillar bump and TSV plating processes. Arthur Keigler, chief technology officer of TEL NEXX, said, “We are attracted by the opportunity SONUS Technology offers our mutual customers in the advanced packaging market. The ability to measure multi-metal film stacks for Cu pillar, and then continue to use the same tool for TSV void detection offers immediate productivity and cost benefits to manufacturing and development groups alike.”

While Rudolph is initially focused on using the technology for copper pillar bump process metrology and TSV inspection, they are also investigating other applications, ranging from detecting film delamination to metrology and process control for MEMS fabrication processes.

By Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, Industry Research & Statistics, SEMI (September 8, 2014)

The general consensus for the semiconductor industry is for this year’s positive trend to continue into 2015 as both revenue growth and unit shipment growth are expected to be in the mid- to high- single digit range. SEMI just published the World Fab Forecast report at the end of August, listing major investments for 216 facilities in 2014 and over 200 projects in 2015.  The report predicts growth of 21% for Front End fab equipment spending in 2014 (including new, used, and in-house), for total spending of US$34.9 billion, with current scenarios ranging from 19% to 24%.

Front end fab equipment spending is projected to grow another 20% in 2015 to $42 billion.  According to the SEMI World Fab Forecast data, this means that 2015 spending could mark a historical record high, surpassing the previous peak years of 2007 ($39 billion) and 2011 ($40 billion).

About 90% of all equipment spending is for 300mm fabs, and, interestingly, the report also shows increased fab equipment spending for 200mm facilities, growing by 10% in 2014.  Equipment spending for wafer sizes less than 200mm is also expected to grow by a healthy 12% in 2015 which includes LEDs and MEMS fabs.

According to the World Fab Forecast, the five regions spending the most in 2014 will be Taiwan ($9.7 billion), Americas ($7.8 billion), Korea ($6.8 billion), China ($4.6 billion), and Japan ($1.9 billion). In 2015, the same regions will lead: Taiwan ($12 billion), Korea ($8 billion), Americas ($7.9 billion), China ($5 billion), and Japan ($4.2 billion). Spending in Europe is expected to nearly double to $3.8 billion.

Seven companies are expected to spend $2 billion or more in 2014, representing almost 80% of all fab equipment spending for Front End facilities. A similar pattern will prevail in 2015.

Worldwide installed capacity falls below 3% mark

World_fab_chart

Figure 1 illustrates fab equipment spending since 2003 and the change of installed capacity (excluding Discretes and LEDs).

As Figure 1 illustrates, before the last economic downturn, most equipment spending was for adding new capacity. The World Fab Forecast report shows that in 2010 and 2011, fab equipment spending growth rates increased dramatically, but installed capacity grew by only 7% in both years. Then in 2012 and 2013, growth for installed capacity sagged even further with only 2% and even less growth. Previously, growth rates less than 2% have been observed only during severe economic downturns (2001 and 2009).

Industry segments, such as foundries, see continuous capacity expansion, though other segments show much lower growth — thus pulling down the total global growth rate for installed capacity to below the 3% mark. Although spending on equipment, some leading-edge product segments experience a loss of fab capacity and, looking closer at this phenomenon, two major trends are observed.

First, coming out of the 2009 downturn, SEMI reports that companies are spending much more on upgrading existing fabs.  From 2005-2008, yearly average spending on upgrading technology was about $6 billion compared to the period of 2011-2015 when the yearly average increased to $14 billion for upgrading existing fabs.  Second, leading-edge fabs experience a loss of capacity when transitioning to leading-edge technology. This is largely observed with nodes below 30/28nm with the increasing complexity and process steps resulting in a -8% to -15% reduction in capacity for fabs.

In addition to foundries, the World Fab Forecast report captures capacities across all industry segments as well as System LSI, Analog, Power, MEMS, LED, Memory and Logic/MPUs. The Logic/MPU sector is also expected to see some positive capacity expansion for 2014 and 2015. Flash capacity is expected to increase by 4% in 2014. Although we see more DRAM capacity coming online, DRAM is now slowly coming out of declining territory with -3% in 2014 and reaching close to zero by end of 2015.

More DRAM capacity?

Over the past three to four years, some major players (such as Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix) have switched fabs from DRAM to System LSI or Flash.  In addition, other companies stopped DRAM production of some fabs completely, contributing to declining DRAM capacity. Equipment spending levels for DRAM fabs in 2012 and 2013 were near the $4 billion mark annually and are described by some industry observers as being at “maintenance level.”  Increased spending is expected for DRAM in 2014 and 2015, yet although more capacity is being added — the rates are still negative until the end of 2015.  See Figure 2.

Figure 2: Fab equipment spending is compared to the change rate of capacity for DRAM.

Figure 2: Fab equipment spending is compared to the change rate of capacity for DRAM.

As discussed above, SEMI reports that leading-edge DRAM fabs undergo a double-digit capacity loss when upgraded due to an increase in processing steps and complexity. Since the end of last year, Samsung is in the process of adding additional DRAM capacity with two new lines — Line 16 (ramping up this year) and its new Line 17 (the first new DRAM fab ramped since the last economic downturn). In addition SK Hynix is ramping up its M14 DRAM line in 2016. We expect the impact to overall DRAM capacity expansion to occur in 2015 when this fab begins to ramp up. Even if this fab ramps to about half of its potential, the change rate for installed DRAM capacity would still not be positive by end of next year.

Over $6 billion for Fab construction projects

The SEMI World Fab Forecast also provides detailed data about fab construction projects underway. Construction spending is expected to total $6.7 billion in 2014 and over $5 billion in 2015.  Leading regions in spending for 2014 will be Taiwan, Americas, and Korea.  In 2015, the highest spending will be seen in Europe/Mideast, followed by Taiwan and Japan.

Only five companies show strong spending numbers for new fabs or refurbishing existing fabs. Their combined fab construction spending accounts for 88% of all worldwide fab construction spending for Front End facilities.

In 2014, the SEMI report shows 16 new fab construction projects (six alone for 300mm) and 10 fab construction project in 2015 (four for 300mm). Most construction spending in 2014 is for Foundries ($3.1 billion) followed by Memory ($2.5 billion) and Logic. In 2015, Memory will have most spending with ($2.3 billion) closely followed by Foundries ($2.2 billion).

The report lists currently 1150 facilities with 68 future facilities with various probabilities which have started or will start volume production in 2014 or later. See Figure 3.

Figure 3: Count of known facilities (Volume fabs to R&D) in the World Fab Forecast report with various probabilities which are expected to start production in 2014 to 2020.

Figure 3: Count of known facilities (Volume fabs to R&D) in the World Fab Forecast report with various probabilities which are expected to start production in 2014 to 2020.

As it looks right now, SEMI reports that the outlook is positive for 2014 for the chip-making industry compared to the previous few years and the outlook for 2015 also remains healthy.  However, given the current investment trends for spending at the advanced technology nodes and the decline in construction related activity, we continue to expect worldwide capacity expansion to remain in the low-single digits in the next three to five years.

SEMI World Fab Forecast Report

The SEMI World Fab Forecast uses a bottom-up approach methodology, providing high-level summaries and graphs, and in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab. Additionally, the database provides forecasts for the next 18 months by quarter. These tools are invaluable for understanding how the semiconductor manufacturing will look in 2014 and 2015, and learning more about capex for construction projects, fab equipping, technology levels, and products.

The SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses.  The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment. Also check out the Opto/LED Fab Forecast. Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats

 

Capital equipment suppliers must provide advanced analytical systems that leverage data generated by their tools to help their fab customers address the challenges of Big Data and advanced analytics. 

BY TOM MARIANO, Foliage, Burlington, MA 

We live in a highly-connected world. Powerful intelligent devices for personal and home use are pervasive and proliferating at an accel- erated rate and will number in the tens of billions in the years to come. These devices are connected to powerful back-end software creating intelligent systems. The semiconductor industry is a major enabler of these intelligent systems. The industry’s drive to adhere to Moore’s Law has resulted in extremely low-cost memory, tremendous computing power and high-speed connectivity, in packages that are low cost and have low power consumption.

These device-level advances when combined with innovations in information technology such as Cloud computing, Big Data and advanced analytics are at the core of intelligent systems that impact our daily lives. Glancing at my phone right now, I see iTunes, YouTube, LinkedIn and my home and work email—all evidence of Cloud computing. Big Data and advanced analytics are widely used for such things as targeted advertising, insurance and credit underwriting, fraud detection, healthcare research, legal discovery, social network analysis and many other areas that impact our lives. Cities around the world, from Da Nang to Fort Lauderdale are applying technologies such as advanced data and analytical tools, cloud-based services and integrated wireless services to make life easier for everyone.

In the manufacturing industry, there is a parallel revolution also leveraging the same advanced information technologies – intelligent manufacturing. The adoption of robotics and automation in manufacturing is increasing precipitously. The use of 3D printing is exploding. Manufacturing machines are becoming more and more intelligent and warehouse automation is rapidly expanding. Intelligent manufacturing systems are dependent on data—data that is shared and acted upon at all levels.

This is leading to changes on the data side as supply chains are being automatically linked for improved tracking and coordination. Advanced analytics are enabling real-time decision making on the factory floor while tool diagnostics are often happening remotely and sometimes automatically. The semiconductor industry has led other manufacturing sectors in the adoption of highly automated, intelligent manufacturing, but is lagging in the application of new information technologies.

Out in front

The need for smaller feature sizes and more aggressive cleanliness and particle-count metrics is the very nature of the semiconductor industry. The accuracy and precision requirements of this complex micro-fabrication process has always necessitated its isolation from direct human intervention. This necessity to isolate semiconductor wafer processing from humans and the drive to adhere to Moore’s Law has pushed advanced technology into the semiconductor manufacturing process resulting in significant progress in automation and optimization of process and production. Clean processing has driven the proliferation of wafer-handling automation within process tools. Wafer-handling robot arms in vacuum and atmospheric tools are standard today. Meanwhile, Moore’s Law played the primary role in wafer size increases and the automation that is present outside of the process tools.

Starting in the 200mm generation, mini-environments (i.e., SMIF pods) as a means to isolate wafers from particles during inter-tool transport became standard. The standard carrier with twenty-five wafers, and its resulting high weight along with the increased fab throughput demands driven by Moore’s Law, led to the propa- gation of inter-bay automated material handling systems (AMHS). The movement of wafers from one processing bay to the next became automated. This trend continued in the 300mm generation with larger and heavier standard carriers (i.e., FOUPs). And with this generation came standardized intra-bay AMHS. Process tool to process tool delivery of wafers was automated as a result. Fully-automated, chamber-to-chamber automation in the semiconductor industry (at least for front-end processing) is decades ahead of other discrete manufacturing industries. In recent years, there’s been an acceleration of robotics within non-semiconductor sectors, but most of these industries are only scratching the surface compared to the semiconductor industry concerning material handling automation.

The semiconductor manufacturing process has also made major advances in data automation. The manufacture of computer chips is extremely complex requiring hundreds of process steps, each affecting change to the silicon wafers at a microscopic level. Also complicating the process is the need for producing multiple products in the same fab with overlapping, but also divergent process steps. This complexity drove the need and proliferation of manufacturing execution systems (MES) in semiconductor processing. Process tool data connections, so-called tool automation is also commonplace, enabling automatic recipe download and tool configuration, remote control and automated data collection. Advanced Process Control (APC) is widely used to improve yield.

And finally, due to the re-entrant repetitive WIP flow required by wafer processing, sophisticated WIP scheduling and dispatching systems exist to optimize, as much as possible, fab throughput and cycle time in pursuit of Moore’s Law. When it comes to data, semiconductor manufacturing is out in front of other discrete manufacturing industries – by far it seems. In the semi industry, the combination of one hundred percent of processing tools connected and automated with metrology feedback loops via APC is not something you see in other discrete manufacturing sectors.

But lagging behind

Recent actions by several large well-known companies emphasize the escalating trend toward intelligent manufacturing. Apple, moving toward fully automated production lines in the U.S., allocated $11B to robotics and automation technology. General Electric announced a $3B investment in the “Industrial Internet of Things.” Google acquired eight robotics companies in 2013. And, Amazon bought Kiva Systems, a warehouse automation company for $750M. Similar actions echoed by thousands of less well-known companies, albeit predominantly on a smaller scale, are also playing a role in the acceleration of intelligent manufacturing. The semiconductor industry is out in front relative to material handling and data automation. However, massive non-semi investment in intelligent manufacturing information technologies is leaving the semi industry lagging far behind.

The use of Big Data, coupled with advanced analytics in the manufacturing process is another area where the semiconductor industry has a long way to go. The amount of data that is needed to be tracked in semiconductor processing is exploding. As design rules shrink to below 32nm critical dimension today and 14nm in the near future, both feature density and the number of transistors per chip experience significant growth. More features per chip translate to:

  • taking more measurements
  • higher lithography refraction rates resulting in higher error rates
  • exceptions requiring more data to resolve and lower yields meaning more excep- tions per wafer (and wafer layer)

As a result, the retention period for these measurements (e.g., to measure tool drift over time) is increased, and the volume of data to be handled by analytics (across lots and tools over time) is magnified considerably. The delayed, but looming transition to 450mm will create a geometric multiplication of the data handling needs.

The value in this massive amount of rapidly created data is in the insight and decision making that can be derived from the data. Here is where the issues lie. Semiconductor manufacturing takes advantage of APC, and in many ways, this is more advanced than a lot of other industries. However, the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS 2013) emphatically states:

“…a truly comprehensive APC manufacturing strategy is not yet reality, nor is a portfolio of sensors and metrology tools to support complete factory-wide deployment, particularly given the profound changes in materials, processes, and device structures expected for future technology generations. The benefits already realized from APC are driving the development of new sensor technologies and associated control software, which will allow factory-wide comprehensive solutions to be realized in the near future.”

Integrated metrology implementation also presents difficult challenges – metrology tools included as subsystems of process tools. Usually, fabs are designed as a network of tools that each performs one specific function, not multiple functions. This assumption constrains material handling, data flow, MES, etc. Sophisticated, real-time data management and analytics are needed to take advantage of in-situ measurement data with minimal (or zero) impact to tool throughput FIGURE 1 illustrates factory scope and FIGURE 2 shows factory targets as defined by the ITRS.

FIGURE 1. Factory integration scope (Source: ITRS).

FIGURE 1. Factory integration scope (Source: ITRS).

Semi industry Fig 2

FIGURE 2. Factory integration target (Source: ITRS).

Also, in the new “Big Data” section of the ITRS, expected data volumes are shown as “TBD” which is very telling. The units are in Terabytes per day and the possibility that fabs will have to deal with multiples of Petabytes of data is very real. Beyond APC there are other significant data challenges such as traceability to lot and die, test data tracking, predictive tool mainte- nance and Fault Detection and Classification (FDC). The industry is just starting to grapple with how to effectively leverage Big Data and advanced analytics in the semiconductor manufacturing process.

There is a very complex variable interaction problem in semiconductor manufacturing. Going forward, a greater variety of data will be collected at a rapid pace. In many cases, interaction models do not exist today. This will require experimentation and experience to understand interactions in order to derive insight and value from the data. Advanced analytical techniques exist, but determining the right techniques to use for certain decision making will be extremely difficult. Infrastructure and cost are two other issues. The collection, storage and processing of large amounts of data require expensive infrastructure. Support of high data throughput process tool connectivity could require new MES and cell controller architectures. Security is also an issue. Sharing data with capital equipment suppliers and other suppliers will be necessary to derive decision-making value from the data. However this data is highly sensitive and closely guarded by the fab. Similarly, the medical industry is challenged with how to share data aggregated from patient medical records with device makers whose focus is improving patient outcomes in a way that protects patient confidentiality.

Not all the challenges fall solely on the fabs. Capital equipment suppliers have an opportunity to leverage their process and measurement tools to develop solutions to help solve the Big Data, analytics challenges of their customers – the fab operators. Understanding by these suppliers of the environment in which their tools reside will be critical. The system software that runs these tools also becomes more important. The continued development of new process controllers and add-on sensors may require an updated system design paradigm. The data acquisition and management systems of these platforms also need a fresh vision – one that can be implemented in their process and material handling control architectures. Capital equipment suppliers will need to rethink their system design and potentially their business models to leverage the value of the data that their tools can provide.

Conclusion

Semiconductor manufacturing, driven by the need for clean processing and Moore’s Law, leads most other manufacturing sectors in implementing automation and advanced process control. However, large, well-known manufacturing companies outside of semi are making huge investments to progress the use of advanced information technologies in manufacturing because they realize the advantages to be gained. Leveraging technologies capable of handling large amounts of data will provide deeper insights into their manufacturing processes.

The semiconductor industry is poised to take advantage of advanced information technologies. Yes, there is a long way to go and challenges abound. However, the potential value to each fab in addressing key operational metrics such as increased yield, reduced cycle time and increased throughput is significant. The sheer complexity of the interactions of variables in the semiconductor process and the massive amount of data to be collected, stored and analyzed are significant challenges. And, the eventual move to 450mm will compound the huge data volume and velocity issues. I believe that the solution is a collaborative approach – not only fab operators working with software solution providers deploying fab systems, but also in close collaboration with capital equipment suppliers.

Capital equipment suppliers must provide advanced analytical systems that leverage data generated by their tools to help their fab customers address the challenges of Big Data and advanced analytics. It is these companies, who understand best the process data that the equipment can track, interpret and communicate. The semiconductor industry has a long history of fab companies working with their suppliers to further the goals of the industry as a whole (e.g., SEMI standards and other consortia). This effective collaboration model can be used to leverage advanced information technol- ogies for improving the manufacturing process. Semi is lagging, but innovation, drive to success attitude, and organization of the industry will make up the ground quickly.

TOM MARIANO is Executive Vice President and General Manager, Foliage, Burlington, MA

Front End fab equipment spending is projected to increase up to another 20 percent in 2015 to US$ 42 billion, according to most recent edition of the SEMI World Fab Forecast.  In 2015, equipment spending could mark a historical record high, surpassing the previous peak years of 2007 ($39 billion) and 2011 ($40 billion). In 2014, the report predicts growth of approximately 21 percent for Front End fab equipment spending, for total spending of $34.9 billion.

Seven companies are expected to spend $2 billion or more in 2014, representing almost 80 percent of all fab equipment spending for Front End facilities; a similar pattern is expected in 2015. About 90 percent of all equipment spending is for 300mm fabs.

According to the World Fab Forecast, in 2014, the five regions with the highest forecast spending on equipment are: Taiwan ($9.7 billion), Americas ($7.8 billion), Korea ($6.8 billion), China ($4.6 billion), and Japan ($1.9 billion). In 2015, the same regions will lead: Taiwan ($12.0 billion), Korea ($8.0 billion), Americas ($7.9 billion), China ($5.0 billion), and Japan ($4.2 billion). Spending in Europe is expected to nearly double (from 2014 to 2015) to $3.8 billion.

As Figure 1 illustrates, before the last economic downturn, most equipment spending was for new additional capacity. SEMI reports that in 2010 and 2011, fab equipment spending growth rates increased dramatically, but installed capacity grew by only 7 percent in both years. In 2012 and 2013, installed capacity grew 2 percent or less. Some industry segments, such as foundries, see continuous capacity expansion, while other segments show much lower growth — pulling down the total global growth rate for installed capacity to below the 3 percent mark.

World_fab_chart

Figure 1 illustrates fab equipment spending since 2003 and the change of installed capacity (excluding Discretes and LEDs).

 

In addition to foundries, the World Fab Forecast report captures capacities across all industry segments as well as System LSI, Analog, Power, MEMS, LED, Memory and Logic/MPUs.

DRAM is now slowly coming out of a declining trend with -3 percent in 2014 and reaching close to zero by end of 2015. Over the past three to four years, some major players have switched fabs from DRAM to System LSI or Flash while others have discontinued DRAM production completely, contributing to declining DRAM capacity.

The SEMI World Fab Forecast also provides detailed data about fab construction projects, with spending expected to total $6.7 billion in 2014 and over $5.0 billion in 2015. In 2014, the leading regions for construction spending are Taiwan, Americas, and Korea.  In 2015, the highest spending is expected in Europe/Mideast, followed by Taiwan and Japan.

Learn more about the SEMI World Fab Forecast which uses a bottom-up approach methodology, providing high-level summaries and graphs, and in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab. Additionally, the database provides forecasts for the next 18 months by quarter. These tools are invaluable for understanding how the semiconductor manufacturing will look in 2014 and 2015, and learning more about capex for construction projects, fab equipping, technology levels, and products.

The SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses.  The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment. Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats