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London, UK and San Jose, California – Dialog Semiconductor and Atmel Corporation announced today that Dialog has agreed to acquire Atmel in a cash and stock transaction for total consideration of approximately $4.6 billion. The acquisition creates a global leader in both Power Management (defined as power management solutions for mobile platforms including smartphones, tablets, portable PCs and wearable-type devices) and Embedded Processing solutions. The transaction results in a company that supports Mobile Power, IoT and Automotive customers. The combined company will address a market opportunity of approximately $20 billion by 2019.

Dialog will complement its position in Power Management ICs with a portfolio of proprietary and ARM (R) based Microcontrollers in addition to high performance ICs for Connectivity, Touch and Security. Dialog will also leverage Atmel’s established sales channels to diversify its customer base. Through realized synergies, the combination could deliver an improved operating model and enable new revenue growth opportunities.

“The rationale for the transaction we are proposing today is clear – and the potential this combination holds is exciting. By bringing together our technologies, world-class talent and broad distribution channels we will create a new, powerful force in the semiconductor space. Our new, enlarged company will be a diversified, high-growth market leader in Mobile Power, IoT and Automotive. We firmly believe that by combining Power Management, Microcontrollers, Connectivity and Security technologies, we will create a strong platform for innovation and growth in the large and attractive market segments we serve. This is an important and proud milestone in the evolution of our Dialog story,” said Jalal Bagherli, Dialog Chief Executive Officer.

“This transaction combines two successful companies and will create significant value for Atmel and Dialog shareholders, customers and employees. Adding Dialog’s world-class capabilities in Power Management with Atmel’s keen focus on Microcontrollers, Connectivity and Security will enable Dialog to more effectively target high-growth applications within the Mobile, IoT and Automotive markets,” said Steven Laub, Atmel President and Chief Executive Officer.

The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of the 2016 calendar year. In 2017, the first full year following closing, the transaction is expected to be accretive to Dialog’s underlying earnings. Dialog anticipates achieving projected annual cost savings of $150 million within two years. The purchase price implies a total equity value for Atmel of approximately $4.6 billion and a total enterprise value of approximately $4.4 billion after deduction of Atmel’s net cash. Dialog expects to continue to have a strong cash flow generation profile and have the ability to substantially pay down the transaction debt approximately three years after closing.

The transaction has been unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both companies and is subject to regulatory approvals in various jurisdictions and customary closing conditions, as well as the approval of Dialog and Atmel shareholders. Jalal Bagherli will continue to be the Chief Executive Officer and Executive Board Director of Dialog. Two members of Atmel’s existing Board will join Dialog’s Board following closing. The transaction is not subject to a financing condition.

In 2020, flexible barrier manufacturing for flexible electronic devices such as displays will be a market worth more than US$184 million, according to IDTechEx Research. That equates to 3.8 million square meters of flexible barrier films for electronics.

Although multilayer approaches – usually organic and inorganic layers – have been the most popular solution for flexible encapsulation so far, there is significant development work with solutions based on single layer approaches such as flexible glass or atomic layer deposition (ALD) which could, in later years, capture part of the market. The table below, compiled by IDTechEx analysts shows some of the characteristics of flexible glass and ALD films as developers are looking to bring them to market.

Table 1. ALD and flexible glass metrics and commercialization status for Beneq, Lotus and Corning

Company Name  WVTR (gr/sq.m./day Deposition Technique Material Commercialization Status – Strategy
Beneq Can reach
10-6 
Batch ALD. Also developing roll 2 Roll ALD. Proprietary Aluminium Oxide/Titanium Oxide nanolaminate Beneq supplies coating equipment
Lotus Can reach
10-6 
Roll 2 Roll ALD Proprietary homogeneous mixture” of Aluminium Oxide/Titanium Oxide layers Lotus follows a licensing business model and is patenting Plasma Enabled Oxygen Radical Decomposition process so as to enable faster deposition rates
Corning Perfect sealing from water vapour/oxygen Down drawing Thin glass (less than 100 μm) Available in rolls and sheets, in sample volumes

Source: IDTechEx report “Barrier Layers for Flexible Electronics 2015-2025” www.IDTechEx.com/barrier

Flexible glass: current status, outlook and challenges

Flexible glass is a significant technical achievement, yet IDTechEx Research believes that it will not be the solution of choice for encapsulation of flexible electronics in the short to medium term, for multiple reasons.

In spite of the marketing spin given by the manufacturers, glass is inherently a fragile material and requires specialized handling and processing. While plastic materials can also be damaged, there is an important difference between the two: damage of barriers on plastic can lead to the failure of a specific part, however, shattering of glass, even if protective sheets are used, leads to particle contamination on the defect line able to affect multiple parts.

Inherent fragility of flexible glass makes sheet edges critical. All suppliers propose protective tabs to reduce the problem. However, any other particle on the processing equipment could also become a focal point of stress and lead to shattering of the glass sheet or web.

A strong point of traditional glass encapsulation (especially for top emission devices) has been its ability to form truly hermetic packaging by using glass frit and laser sealing. This advantage may not be transferable to flexible glass where glass-to-glass sealing may be very problematic and difficult because points of stress and relative twisting of the two sheets must be avoided in the laser firing of the frit. It may be that flexible glass has to be used in combination with adhesives (and desiccants).

Flexibility is another issue. Although glass is very flexible if flexed along a well-defined axis, it can be poor at tolerating any stress out of axis, so much so that twisting the sheet may lead to fracture. This is true with or without protective film applied to the glass. Extreme flexibility (r< 2-3 mm) may also be a problem. Data that has been shown would put the flexibility limit around r= 2.5 cm. Consequently, flexible glass as an encapsulant superstrate or substrate may be good for conformal applications, but for truly flexible applications there seem to be several challenges to be overcome.

Flexible glass makers are also waiting for equipment providers to make appropriate equipment to handle the flexible glass in manufacturing, another bottle neck.

Future opportunities for flexible glass

The thermal stability of flexible glass makes it the best choice as substrate for back-planes of high-resolution high-end large displays. Glass enables improved resolution and good registration between layers during processing compared to plastic substrates like PET, PEN, and PI. However, IDTechEx analysts and other affiliate experts have only seen results with metal oxide backplanes only so far (Tprocess < 350 C), none with LTPS backplanes (Tprocess < 450 C). If processability up to 450C is indeed possible, flexible glass would be a very good choice as a substrate for flexible AMOLED TV. Those devices are bottom emission (BE) AMOLED, normally have a metal foil as back encapsulant, a higher cost tolerance. Regarding R2R processing of flexible glass, it has demonstrated possible. Manufacturing by R2R will require specialized tools not differently than fabrication of barrier in R2R.

The multi-layer approach if correctly implemented on dedicated tools may have the potential to be low cost but an open question remains as to how low the defect density of barrier on foil can be. Consequently, it is an open question what the maximum size of displays that can be encapsulated with compatible yield can be. As it transpires from the discussion above, plastic engineered superstrate (=encapsulant foil) may be better for smaller devices (wearable, phone, tablets), while flexible glass may be better for TVs and in general larger displays.

Additionally, the smoothness of plastic films, even with smoothing layers, is not as good as glass (0.2 nm). This may be a problem for organic TFT backplanes. Finally optical transmission below 400nm require glass as substrate since PET and PEN have a cut off around 400 nm (PEN). IDTechEx does not see this as a critical limitation for general display applications (it may be for OPV).

Atomic layer deposition (ALD) present and future outlook/market share 

ALD is another flexible encapsulation technology receiving a lot of attention with several players currently developing solutions based on it. It seems like it is not a short-term solution, if it will ever be one as a stand-alone layer but ALD may be a solution in a multi-layer stack in combination with a sputtered or PECVD layer if it would be possible to find a good cost structure. Regarding the intrinsic properties of the material, ALD film deposited at low temperature (T<80 C) have a superior quality when tested at room temperature. A single ALD layer less-than 50 nm thick can perform better than thicker layers deposited by sputtering or PECVD.

However, the inherent stability of the films at higher temperature/humidity (e.g. 85C/85%RH) is a problem. If PE-CVD is used, ALD film stability improves, as well as for mixed oxides, but it is still an issue. A second problem comes with particles and substrates non-uniformity. Any defect may lead at an initial non-uniform nucleation that propagates into the growing film. Furthermore, loose particles on substrates may be partially covered, but because of the extreme thinness, the thin film does not have the mechanical strength to keep them in place under mechanical stress. Any mechanical stress leads to film fracture with consequent creation of an ingress path for moisture. That is why multilayer structures are necessary.

Deposition tools are in development from Lotus, Beneq, Encapsulix and others. Exploration at Samsung SDC with ALD films for TFE was very much advertised by Synos, but resulted in failure and any further evaluation was halted. ALD for barrier on foil has better results although there are doubts and hurdles in scaling up and reaching the deposition speed required for a cost effective process.

This is also one of the sessions at the Printed Electronics USA event, to be held on November 18-19 at Santa Clara, CA. See www.PrintedElectronicsUSA.com for full details.

LCD TV panel makers’ inventory levels will be greater than normal in the second half of 2015, due to softening demand and increased output from new LCD panel manufacturing lines (fabs). According to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), a global source of critical information and insight, LCD TV panels reached a peak of 4.7 weeks of inventory in December 2013. Since then, panel makers have sustained inventories at normal levels (i.e., less than four weeks); however, the situation recently changed, when panel makers did not slow production in the second quarter (Q2) of 2015, as the market shifted to over-supply. Inventory levels are, therefore, expected to stretch beyond the normal range to reach 4.9 weeks at the end of the third quarter (Q3) 2015, which may cause further decreases in panel prices in the second half of this year.

“Weak demand caused by the soft global economy, and supply increases following the initiation of mass production at three generation 8.5 (Gen 8.5) fabs in China, will likely further aggravate the LCD panel supply-and-demand imbalance,” said Ricky Park, director of display for IHS Technology. “Manufacturers maintaining current utilization rates at existing production lines also will also increase inventories.”

According to the IHS Display Production & Inventory Tracker, utilization rates at Gen 7 and larger LCD fabs have remained above 90 percent since April 2014. That’s because shipments of TV panels in terms of area surged more than 17 percent, due to robust demand for larger TVs in 2014. “Despite high utilization rates, TV panel makers have been able to control inventories at normal levels,” Park said. “TV manufacturers purchased too many TV panels in the first half of 2015, anticipating greater consumer demand in the second half of the year. However due to stagnant growth in the LCD TV market, TV manufacturers are likely to reduce their panel purchases in the second half of 2015.”

Yet, panel output from China is expected to increase further due to aggressive production schedules at new Gen 8.5 fabs at BOE, ChinaStar and CEC Panda. Also, some fabs in South Korea and Taiwan have been fully depreciated, which lowers panel production costs. This will allow the panel makers to provide panels at lower prices without losing margins, (while their competitors may suffer from falling panel prices). And thus, they will likely keep the utilization rates, despite softer demand. “LCD TV panel prices will continue to decline through the third quarter of this year; however, some models are still profitable, so panel makers do not necessarily intend to reduce their output,” Park said.

Panel manufacturers’ TV panel inventory levels are estimated to rise to 4.1 weeks at the end of July 2015 and to 4.9 weeks at the end of September 2015. Increased inventory levels are expected to compel panel makers to accept TV manufacturers’ demand to cut prices.

LCD_Panel_Inventory_Chart

Starting in the second half of 2015, the overall consumption of active-matrix organic light-emitting diode (AMOLED) materials will surge, as LG Display increases the production of white organic light-emitting diode (WOLED) TV panels. In the first half of 2015, the WOLED organic materials market reached $58 million; however, in the second half of the year the market will increase nearly threefold, reaching $165 million. The WOLED organic materials market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 79 percent from 2014 to 2019, according to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), a global source of critical information and insight.

“Although the WOLED organic materials market is still at a fledgling state, it will grow considerably in tandem with a rise in WOLED panel production, beginning in the second half of 2015,” said Kihyun Kim, senior analyst for display chemical and materials at IHS Technology. “Since WOLED technology is mainly used for large-area AMOLED displays, particularly TVs, this rapid growth in the WOLED market will lead the continued growth in the overall AMOLED materials market.”

LG Display, the leader in the WOLED panel market, began manufacturing WOLED TV panels in their E3 line in Paju, South Korea, in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2012. To mass produce WOLED panels, the company installed 8th generation mother glass processing in its E4 line in February 2014. While the line became operational in Q4 2014, the line yield has been low to date; however, full operation is set to begin in earnest in the second quarter (Q2) 2015. “Most AMOLED TV panel makers, especially in China, are focusing on WOLED technology, which supports future WOLED material market growth,” Kim said.

AMOLED_Materials_WOLED_Chart2

The total AMOLED materials market, including both the fine-metal mask red-green-blue (FMM RGB) and WOLED types, will grow 54 percent year over year to reach $658 million in 2015, according to the latest IHS OLED Materials Market Tracker forecast. The AMOLED materials market is expected to reach $2.0 billion in 2019, growing at a CAGR of 37 percent from 2014 to 2019.

Global consumers have lately become less interested in acquiring conventional notebooks with 15-inch displays, and they are instead shifting their spending to smaller product segments. In the first half of 2015, panel shipments in the 15-inch range (i.e., 15.0 inches to 15.9 inches) dropped 14 percent year over year, from 44.5 million to 38.4 million units, according to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), a global source of critical information and insight. At the same time, driven by the popularity of Chromebook, notebook display shipments in the 11-inch range have grown from 8 million units to 11 million units.

Notebook_Displays_Chart

“Thanks to affordable prices, and a completed ecosystem with a host of hardware and app choices and a user-friendly cloud environment, Chromebook has expanded its customer base from small and medium-sized businesses and the education market to general users,” said Jason Hsu, supply chain senior analyst for IHS Technology. “The Chromebook sales region has also expanded from the United States to emerging countries, where more local brands are launching Chromebook product offerings. There are also more products set to debut in the 12-inch range, thanks to the success of the Microsoft Surface Pro 3 and rumors of Apple’s upcoming 12.9-inch tablets.”

According to the most recent IHS Notebook and Tablet Display Supply Chain Tracker, total notebook panel shipments to Lenovo and Hewlett-Packard fell 27 percent month over month from 6.4 million units in May to 4.7 million units in June, while overall set production increased by 13 percent from 5.4 million units to 6.1 million units. These two leading notebook PC brands have recently taken steps to regulate panel inventory, in order to guard against excess product pre-stocking.

“The currency depreciation in Euro zone and emerging counties earlier this year jeopardized consumer confidence and slowed the purchase of consumer electronics, including notebooks,” Hsu said. “Moreover, in April, Microsoft leaked the announcement of its new Windows 10 operating system. Despite Microsoft’s claims that a free upgrade to the new operating system would be available to Windows 8 users, many consumers still deferred purchases, which increased the brands’ set inventory. Notebook manufacturers could decide to lower set production in the third quarter, after the end market becomes sluggish in May and June.”

With notebook panel prices remaining very low, profitability has become an issue, and many panel makers are facing pressure to maintain fab loading and gain market share. “Panel cost structure has become crucial in the struggle to stay competitive,” Hsu said. “Continuous panel over-supply not only hurts profitability, but could also confuse the real panel market demand in the fourth quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016. It’s time for panel makers to revise their production numbers, and curb capacity utilization, to keep pace with actual market demand.”

While overall smartphone market growth continues to slow, global demand for low temperature polysilicon thin-film-transistor liquid-crystal displays (LTPS TFT LCD) for smartphones is on the rise. Led by Apple’s iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, LTPS TFT LCD smartphone display shipments grew 31 percent in the first half (H1) of 2015 to reach 251 million units. The iPhone displays made up more than half (52 percent) of all LTPS TFT LCD smartphone display shipments in H1 2015, according to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), a global source of critical information and insight.

LTPS TFT LCD is used in Apple’s iPhone and other high-end smartphones that have full high definition (FHD) displays with resolutions of 1920×1080 pixels and in wide quad high definition (WQHD) displays with resolutions of 2560×1440 pixels. Display manufacturers are now investing in new fabs to increase future production capacity, not only for LTPS TFT LCD displays, but also for high-resolution active-matrix organic light emitting diode (AMOLED) displays, according to the IHS Smartphone Display Market Tracker.

“Apple adopted wider displays with higher resolution in its latest iPhone series, which has helped spur demand in LTPS TFT LCD displays,” said Hiroshi Hayase, director of analysis and research for IHS Technology. “Due to strong growth in LTPS TFT LCD for the iPhone, Apple competitors are also now increasing orders of high-resolution displays.”

apple smartphone display

Led by declining thin-film-transistor liquid-crystal display (TFT LCD) revenues, global flat panel display (FPD) industry revenue is forecast to fall 2 percent, from $131.4 billion in 2014 to $129 billion in 2015. Dwindling TFT LCD display revenues, declining panel demand in the PC sector, along with ongoing panel-price erosion are the primary reasons for overall FPD revenue declines this year, according to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), a global source of critical information and insight.

After growth last year, global TFT LCD display revenue is expected to decline 3 percent, from $120 billion in 2014 to $115.8 billion this year. However, IHS expects a return to TFT LCD market revenue growth in 2016. Plasma, cathode-ray tube (CRT), passive-matrix liquid crystal display (LCD) and electronic paper display (EPD)  are also facing revenue declines, as some technologies become obsolete and others lack new applications. Organic light-emitting diode (OLED) is the only display technology expected to grow in 2015, according to the latest IHS Display Long-Term Demand Forecast Tracker.

TFT LCD display revenues grew 5 percent last year, from $114.4 billion to $120 billion, due mainly to strong growth in LCD TV panel shipments and higher panel prices. However this year the TFT LCD market is expected to decline for the following reasons:

–   Falling demand for panels used in tablets, notebooks and desktop monitors

–   Price erosion for smartphone panels in 2015, due to sharp increases in production for low-temperature polysilicon (LTPS) TFT LCD panels, which provide higher resolution and lower power consumption

–   Declining open-cell LCD TV panel prices, including 4K UHD TV panels

Even as revenues decline in 2015, area demand for TFT LCD is still expected to grow nearly 4 percent, from 165.5 million square meters in 2014 to 172 million square meters in 2015. This shows that the revenue decline is being driven by  average selling price (ASP) erosion.

“Panel prices are eroding for several reasons, including the swing in LCD TV panel inventory from limited supply to over-supply, which began in the second quarter of this year,” said David Hsieh, senior director of display research for IHS. “Other reasons include falling demand in the PC sector, and panel-capacity expansion pressure on smartphone displays, especially in LTPS panels. The entire FPD supply chain now must shift focus from growth to cost reduction, in order to maintain profitability.”

Active-matrix OLED (AMOLED) display revenues are projected to reach $11.8 billion in 2015, up 36 percent from 2014. Passive-matrix OLED (PMOLED) revenues are projected to reach $450 million this year, up 22 percent from last year.

“AMOLED growth is based on several factors, including soaring smartphone OLED display shipments, growth in OLED TV panel shipments, the expansion of OLED into tablet PCs and increased use in wearable devices, like Apple Watch. Flexible OLED is a key feature driving AMOLED revenues, especially given its higher ASP, attractive features and great value,” Hsieh said.

TFT LCD revenues in 2016 are expected to grow just over 1 percent, year over year, to reach $117.4 billion. The main reasons for the growth are further expansion of LCD TV features, such as larger display size, wider color gamut and further penetration of 4K UHD TV. These features will keep ASP rising; meanwhile, the emergence of the 4K displays for tablets, smartphones and desktop monitors will further increase ASP. Newer automotive displays, smart watches, public displays and other new applications will also add to TFT LCD revenue growth in 2016.

Flexible displays are not only leading to sprawling applications and revolutionizing the display market, but they are also an increasingly important segment of overall display market revenues. In fact, flexible displays are expected to comprise 15 percent of the total display market revenue in 2024, according to a new report from IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of critical information and insight. As flexible organic light-emitting diode (OLED) production continues to improve, revenue from flexible display production will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 44 percent from 2014, to reach $23 billion in 2024, the IHS report says.

“Flexible OLED production yield has improved dramatically over the last few years, which could prompt panel manufacturers to ramp up flexible OLED production lines,” said Jerry Kang, principal analyst at IHS. “Market growth could also accelerate when flexible displays debut in foldable, rollable and stretchable forms.”

flex display revenue

Rugged, light, thin, non-brittle and portable flexible displays are feeding the market for various applications. For example, LG Electronics and Samsung Electronics have both applied flexible OLEDs to their flagship smartphones, to bolster sales in the slowing premium-smartphone market. The Apple Watch, which uses flexible display technology, has also added to the momentum of OLED in wearable devices. “Flexible display technology is not only gathering heated attention from electronics giants, but it is also stimulating startups to experiment with novel applications and innovations,” Kang said.

From connectivity to globalization and sustainability, the “Law” created by Gordon Moore’s prediction for the pace of semiconductor technology advances has set the stage for global technology innovation and contribution for 50 years. The exponential advances predicted by Moore’s Law have transformed the world we live in. The ongoing innovation, invention and investment in technology and the effects that arise from it are likely to enable continued advances along this same path in the future, according to a new report from IHS Inc. Titled “Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of Moore’s Law,” the report describes how the activity predicted by Moore’s Law not only drives technological change, but has also created huge economic value and driven social advancement.

In April of 1965, Fairchild Semiconductor’s Research and Development Director, Gordon Moore, who later founded Intel, penned an article that led with the observation that transistors would decrease in cost and increase in performance at an exponential rate. More specifically, Moore posited that the quantity of transistors that can be incorporated into a single chip would approximately double every 18 to 24 months. This seminal observation was later dubbed “Moore’s Law.”

“Fifty years ago today, Moore defined the trajectory of the semiconductor industry, with profound consequences that continue to touch every aspect of our day-to-day lives,” said Dale Ford, vice president and chief analyst for IHS Technology. “In fact, Moore’s Law forecast a period of explosive growth in innovation that has transformed life as we know it.”

The IHS Technology report, which is available as a free download, finds that an estimated $3 trillion of additional value has been added to the global gross domestic product (GDP), plus another $9 trillion of indirect value in the last 20 years, due to the pace of innovation predicted by Moore’s Law. The total value is more than the combined GDP of France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom.

If the cadence of Moore’s Law had slowed to every three years, rather than two years, technology would have only advanced to 1998 levels: smart phones would be nine years away, the commercial Internet in its infancy (five years old) and social media would not yet have skyrocketed.

“Moore’s Law has proven to be the most effective predictive tool of the last half-century of technological innovation, economic advancement, and by association, social and cultural change,” Ford said. “It has implications for connectivity and the way we interact, as evidenced by the way social relationships now span the globe. It also provides insight into globalization and economic growth, as technology continues to transform entire industries and economies. Finally it reveals the importance of how sustainability affects life on Earth, as we continue to transform our physical world in both positive and negative ways.”

Moores Law full

The Moore’s Law Era: Explosive Economic and Societal Change

The consequences of Moore’s Law has fueled multifactor productivity growth. The activity forecast by the law has contributed a full percentage point to real GDP growth, including both direct and indirect impact, every year between 1995 and 2011, representing 37 percent of global economic impact.

“Not even Gordon Moore himself predicted the blistering pace of change for the modern world,” Ford said. “While it is true most people have never seen a microprocessor, every day we benefit from experiences that are all made possible by the exponential growth in technologies that underpin modern life.”

According to the “Moore’s Law Impact Report,” the repercussions of Moore’s Law have contributed to an improved quality of life, because of the advances made possible in healthcare, sustainability and other industries. The results of advanced digital technology include the following:

  • Forty percent of the world’s households now have high-speed connections, compared to less than 0.1 percent in 1991
  • Up to 150 billion incremental barrels of oil could potentially be extracted from discovered global oil fields
  • Researchers can perform 1.5 million high-speed screening tests per week (up from 180 in 1997), allowing for the development of new material, such as bio-fuels and feedstock’s for plant-based chemicals

Moore’s Law: Reflecting the Pace of Change

Moore’s Law is not a law but an unspoken agreement between the electronics industry and the world economy that inspires engineers, inventors and entrepreneurs to think about what may be possible.

“Whatever has been done, can be outdone,” said Gordon Moore. “The industry has been phenomenally creative in continuing to increase the complexity of chips. It’s hard to believe – at least it’s hard for me to believe – that now we talk in terms of billions of transistors on a chip rather than tens, hundreds or thousands.”

Moore’s observation has transformed computing from a rare, expensive capability into an affordable, pervasive and powerful force – the foundation for Internet, social media, modern data analytics and more. “Moore’s Law has helped inspire invention, giving the world more powerful computers and devices that enable us to connect to each other, to be creative, to be productive, to learn and stay informed, to manage health and finances, and to be entertained,” Ford said.

Millennials: The Stewards of Moore’s Law

From the changing shape and feel of how humans communicate to the delivery of healthcare, changing modes of transportation, cities of the future, harvesting energy resources, classroom learning and more – technology innovations that spring from Moore’s Law likely will remain a foundational force for growth into the next decade.

From data sharing, self-driving cars and drones to smart cities, smart homes and smart agriculture, Moore’s Law will enable people to continuously shrink technology and make it more power efficient, allowing creators, engineers and makers to rethink where – and in what situations – computing is possible and desirable.

Computing may disappear into the objects and spaces that we interact with – even the fabric of our clothes or ingestible tracking devices in our bodies. New devices may be created with powerful, inexpensive technology and combining this with the ability to pool and share more information, new experiences become possible.

Organic semiconductors now offer the performance, cost and route to adoption, for foldable displays; from ultra-thin, conformal, wearables to truly foldable smartphones and tablets.

BY DR. MICHAEL COWIN, SmartKem Ltd, St Asaph, Wales

Buoyed by consumer demand for fresh innovation and fierce industry competition, the display industry exists in a cycle of continuous improvement.

Today a new breed of semiconductors – a key enabling component in the evolution of active matrix displays – are competing to offer manufacturers a route to the production of high performance curved, foldable and even roll-able displays.

There are two key factors that define the impact and adoption of any new enabling technology like this; namely how will it perform and what will be the cost.

This article demonstrates that the performance of organic thin-film transistors (OTFT) for display backplane application has reached a tipping point into market adoption. OTFTs are now equal and arguably greater than competitive technology solutions while also offering ultra-flexibility and a significant cost advantage in production and ownership over the more traditional inorganic equivalents. OTFTs are now a serious contender to fill a critical gap in the market for high performance, ultra-flexible TFT backplanes to drive the next generation of conformal displays.

At first, low-temperature polysilicon (LTPS) was considered the most likely solution to replace hydro-genated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) as the TFT channel layer for rigid flat panel display backplanes, until the advent of indium gallium zinc oxide (IGZO). While the vastly superior mobility of LTPS gave uplift in mobility over traditional a-Si TFT, it came at a price of significantly higher manufacturing costs through high CAPEX, complicated processing and much lower yields, some of which were as low as 20% in early 2014.[1]

However, the recent aggressive drive to manufacture OLED, EPD and LCD display products with new form factors so they are lightweight, conformal or flexible has placed new challenging demands on the TFT material characteristics. This has allowed new technology platforms such as OTFTs to enter into the supply chain to compete head on with LTPS and IGZO as a TFT channel material based on the same metrics of performance and cost.

Electrical performance: It’s all about power

While a semiconductor technology’s cost of ownership outlines the market entry opportunities, no TFT platform will even be considered a viable alternative to incumbent semiconductors unless it meets, and surpasses key criteria. When defining these criteria it is vital that context to the end application and how this might improve the user experience is considered. Power consumption is one such aspect becoming critical in defining the battery life of mobile and wearable displays and any new TFT channel material, such as OTFT needs to demonstrate either equal or better performance to add value to the user experience in end product form.

Screen Shot 2015-06-09 at 3.22.19 PM

The progression from a-Si semiconductors to alternative materials for rigid displays was originally driven by the charge carrier mobility bottleneck, as manufacturers tried to move to higher resolution active matrix LCD displays. The same requirement exists for AMOLED displays, and as such a parallel can be drawn to the arguments for and against the competing materials systems, but with the increasingly important necessity for physical flexibility.

Each semiconductor platform has its own advantages and disadvantages. For instance while LTPS has a very high carrier mobility it could be debated whether it’s necessary in the average pixel driver circuit for a high quality LCD or OLED display where a mobility of 5-10 cm2/V.s is more than adequate. Indeed IGZO and the latest generation of OTFTs meet this requirement with ease. In contrast TFT electrical (bias stress) stability is an issue with IGZO, usually resulting in more complexity in the TFT drive circuitry for each pixel to compensate for this short coming. From a general perspective each of the above mentioned three contenders are more than suitable as a channel semiconductor. However, these options also need to be considered in context; which of these offers the potential to add real uplift in the user experience at a price point the market will accept? Most displays today are mobile-enabled and are soon to become wearable with the advent of the smartwatch. The power consumption of these displays and its impact on battery life may well be a defining factor in the choice of TFT channel semiconductor for many manufacturers.

An important contribution to this argument was made by Sharp with the introduction to the market of IGZO. Sharp highlighted the importance of TFT leakage current which led to a clearer understanding of the mechanisms responsible for these leakage currents. The causes are found to be predominantly dependent on the smoothness of the interface between the insulator and the channel semiconductor.

So while LTPS has a rough polycrystalline surface its leakage current is higher; IGZO in contrast has smooth amorphous surfaces at this key interface and as such much lower leakage currents.

The context of lower leakage currents is that it will become a very desirable quality since less current is dissipated when the TFT is off and as such the TFT switch capacitor/s can retain an internal charge for a longer period of time. Thus the display refresh rate can be reduced which leads to a potentially dramatic reduction in power consumption – especially for displays that will have static images – ideal for wearable and mobile based displays. As such IGZO has a clear advantage over LTPS for this display based application.

However, recent advances in OTFT technology reported here for the first time show the potential for low leakage currents equivalent to IGZO; but achieved using OTFTs. By designing into solution based organic semiconductor ‘inks’ the preferred features of the single- crystal organic semiconductor combined with semiconducting polymers or ‘binders’ an amorphous semiconductor layer can be achieved. This material combination offers the high mobility of single crystals but with highly uniform processing charac- teristics required for device uniformity. Furthermore, the amorphous nature of these materials offers very smooth interfaces between the solution processed insulator and solution processed semiconductor.

The results in FIGURE 1 demonstrate that the low leakage current levels achieved by a single gate OTFT. This could be lowered further by use of a dual gate OTFT stack as with commercial IGZO TFTs.

FIGURE 1. TEM of copper hillocks

FIGURE 1. TEM of copper hillocks

Therefore OTFTs represent serious competition to IGZO as a channel material in the context for application to wearable and mobile displays for extended battery life. Coupled with the further advantages of excellent bias stress stability and low temperature processing, the case for OTFT adoption rather than IGZO becomes more attractive from a performance perspective.

Physical performance: The foldable frontier

Recently there have been a number of commercial products launched based on curved AMOLED displays such as the Galaxy Round, LG G Flex and Galaxy Note Edge with curved features (and slight flex in the case of the G Flex), all based on LTPS TFT backplanes on plastic. When the user context is taken into account it could be suggested that these products have not offered much value differentiation from glass based equivalent devices.

As such the real ‘wow’ factor in the consumer experience or user value-add has yet to be achieved.

Next generation smart and wearable technology will come with the introduction of flexible and foldable devices such as wearables, smartphones and tablets; but this demands a semicon- ductor platform with entirely new physical properties and a form factor capability which in turn raises a unique set of challenges for traditional and new TFT technologies to overcome.

The current limiting factor is the inability of LTPS and IGZO technologies to offer robust and acute bend capability in TFT form. Even with the use of exotic and expensive strain management layering techniques the maximum bend radius of these technologies have hit a roadblock at around 5 mm.

To genuinely offer a differentiated product with a compelling value-add proposition to the consumer experience, manufacturers must turn to the use of material technologies that enable truly foldable mobile devices or fully bendable, robust and light- weight smartwatches (FIGURE 2). The solution to the limitations presented by LTPS and IGZO in bend capability is the use of OTFTs. It has long been understood that the polymeric nature of OTFTs is ideally suited for bendable applications, and it has widely been reported that products such as Smart- Kem’s tru-FLEX® can withstand 10,000 bends below 1mm with minimal effect on device performance. As such OTFT technology is now considered a key enabler for a wide range of highly robust bendable and foldable display based products; and the market timing could not be better with the recent upturn in demand for smartwatch based products.

FIGURE 2: Display form factor dependency on bend radius.

FIGURE 2: Display form factor dependency on bend radius.

In the context of performance it may be suggested that while the initial market entrants in curved display products have been manufactured with LTPS, and that there is further development potential in the IGZO platform, a complete technology solution already exists – OTFT.

The OTFT technology platform offers the transistor performance for exciting new applica- tions while also holding two ‘aces’ when it comes to product-specific performance for this new generation of wearable and mobile displays; low leakage for significant battery life extension and ultra-flexibility for foldable mobile devices and bendable smart- watches.

How much will it cost?

Beyond the performance benefits of OTFTs, a commercially viable TFT channel semicon-
ductor must provide favourable characteristics for integration into a robust and cost-effective semiconductor manufacturing process. The savings in manufacturing costs compared with inorganic materials as well as the low risk approach of re-purposing existing a-Si production lines to pilot OTFT backplanes on plastic is an appealing prospect.

One of the major advantages of organic semiconductors comes from their ease of application. Solution based semiconductor inks can be applied to substrates through a range of additive processes and print production systems such as slot dye coating as well as low temperature process (FIGURE 3). Although modern organic semiconductors are stable up to 300°C the ease by which these solution-based materials can be processed at low temperatures offers manufacturers a wide range of cost effective stack materials and substrates, and easier bond/de-bond and inter-layer alignment due to less expansion and contraction. This all adds up to significantly improving production yield (over high temperature processing) and thereby reducing production costs over any area of substrate.

FIGURE 3. Commercial organic semiconductors, such as SmartKem’s tru-FLEX® material, offer a total technology solution, combining high performance mobility, low temperature processing and true flexibility.

FIGURE 3. Commercial organic semiconductors, such as SmartKem’s tru-FLEX® material, offer a total technology solution, combining high performance mobility, low temperature processing and true flexibility.

An independent study has been commissioned by SmartKem comparing the cost of key features within the TFT stack that would show the maximum variance between technology platforms; the semiconductor and gate dielectric layer. This will ensure a complete understanding of the difference in the cost of ownership and cost of production for the alternate TFT channel materials for backplane manufacture for flexible displays.

The four technology platforms chosen for the TFT array devices were: a-Si, LTPS, IGZO and SmartKem’s OTFT semiconductor tru-FLEX®. The overall cost of TFT device manufacture included manufacturing overheads to produce the two layers, depreciation of equipment (amortized over five years of production of 1.8 million substrates) and the direct materials costs.

The CAPEX for each fabrication process is determined from the type and quantity of equipment needed for producing the semiconductor and gate insulator layers with an assumed input capacity of 30,000 substrates per month. In this study, the assumed equipment and materials are shown in Table 2. The summary findings of the on-going study have shown the cost of manufacturing TFT arrays with organic semiconductors is almost half that of LTPS and a third lower than a-Si and IGZO. The most significant findings (to be published in a white paper) were that the manufacturing overheads and depreciation costs for OTFT were ten times less than LTPS and four times less than a-Si and IGZO.

Screen Shot 2015-06-09 at 3.25.26 PM

It was found that the depreciation cost of production for a ‘greenfield’ OTFT line is vastly smaller than competing technologies and could be further reduced by the re-purposing of an a-Si production line; OTFTs thus offer an easy route to adoption for the cost-down manufacture of superior performance flexible TFT backplanes.

The future is organic

The value proposition of organic semiconductors now makes sense to an industry eager for differentiated products that can be adopted and scaled with low risk. From a performance and cost perspective the immediate value-add to the consumer is longer battery life and fully foldable mobile displays. While the cost of production is reduced with OTFT, the extremely low cost of ownership offers a low risk industrialization strategy through the building of a ‘greenfield’ line or by the re-purposing of an existing a-Si line.

One of the most exciting and eagerly awaited outputs of this rapid evolution in material perfor- mance and cost is the advancement and commercialization of bendable and foldable displays. From ultra-thin, conformal, wearables to truly foldable smartphones and tablets, organic semiconductors now offers the performance, cost and route to adoption for the manufacture of a new generation of OLED, EPD and LCD displays with entirely new physical properties and form factors.

References

1. http://www.displaysearchblog.com/2014/08/waiting-for-the-apple-iwatch/

DR MICHAEL COWIN is Head of Strategic Marketing, SmartKem Ltd., St Asaph, Wales