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Leading industry experts provide their perspectives on what to expect in 2015. 3D devices and 3D integration, rising process complexity and “big data” are among the hot topics.

Entering the 3D era

Ghanayem_SSteve Ghanayem, vice president, general manager, Transistor and Interconnect Group, Applied Materials

This year, the semiconductor industry celebrates the 50th anniversary of Moore’s Law. We are at the onset of the 3D era. We expect to see broad adoption of 3D FinFETs in logic and foundry. Investments in 3D NAND manufacturing are expanding as this technology takes hold. This historic 3D transformation impacting both logic and memory devices underscores the aggressive pace of technology innovation in the age of mobility. The benefits of going 3D — lower power consumption, increased processing performance, denser storage capacity and smaller form factors — are essential for the industry to enable new mobility, connectivity and Internet of Things applications.

The semiconductor equipment industry plays a major role in enabling this 3D transformation through new materials, capabilities and processes. Fabricating leading-edge 3D FinFET and NAND devices adds complexity in chip manufacturing that has soared with each node transition. The 3D structure poses unique challenges for deposition, etch, planarization, materials modification and selective processes to create a yielding device, requiring significant innovations in critical dimension control, structural integrity and interface preparation. As chips get smaller and more complex, variations accumulate while process tolerances shrink, eroding performance and yields. Chipmakers need cost-effective solutions to rapidly ramp device yield to maintain the cadence of Moore’s Law. Given these challenges, 2015 will be the year when precision materials engineering technologies are put to the test to demonstrate high-volume manufacturing capabilities for 3D devices.

Achieving excellent device performance and yield for 3D devices demands equipment engineering expertise leveraging decades of knowledge to deliver the optimal system architecture with wide process window. Process technology innovation and new materials with atomic-scale precision are vital for transistor, interconnect and patterning applications. For instance, transistor fabrication requires precise control of fin width, limiting variation from etching to lithography. Contact formation requires precision metal film deposition and atomic-level interface control, critical to lowering contact resistance. In interconnect, new materials such as cobalt are needed to improve gap fill and reliability of narrow lines as density increases with each technology node. Looking forward, these precision materials engineering technologies will be the foundation for continued materials-enabled scaling for many years to come.

Increasing process complexity and opportunities for innovation

trafasBrian Trafas, Chief Marketing Officer, KLA-Tencor Corporation

The 2014 calendar year started with promise and optimism for the semiconductor industry, and it concluded with similar sentiments. While the concern of financial risk and industry consolidation interjects itself at times to overshadow the industry, there is much to be positive about as we arrive in the new year. From increases in equipment spending and revenue in the materials market, to record level silicon wafer shipments projections, 2015 forecasts all point in the right direction. Industry players are also doing their part to address new challenges, creating strategies to overcome complexities associated with innovative techniques, such as multipatterning and 3D architectures.

The semiconductor industry continues to explore new technologies, including 3DIC, TSV, and FinFETs, which carry challenges that also happen to represent opportunities. First, for memory as well as foundry logic, the need for multipatterning to extend lithography is a key focus. We’re seeing some of the value of a traditional lithography tool shifting into some of the non-litho processing steps. As such, customers need to monitor litho and non-litho sources of error and critical defects to be able to yield successfully at next generation nodes.  To enable successful yields with decreasing patterning process windows, it is essential to address all sources of error to provide feed forward and feed backward correctly.

The transition from 2D to 3D in memory and logic is another focus area.  3D leads to tighter process margins because of the added steps and complexity.  Addressing specific yield issues associated with 3D is a great opportunity for companies that can provide value in addressing the challenges customers are facing with these unique architectures.

The wearable, intelligent mobile and IoT markets are continuing to grow rapidly and bring new opportunities. We expect the IoT will drive higher levels of semiconductor content and contribute to future growth in the industry. The demand for these types of devices will add to the entire value chain including semiconductor devices but also software and services.  The semiconductor content in these devices can provide growth opportunities for microcontrollers and embedded processors as well sensing semiconductor devices.

Critical to our industry’s success is tight collaboration among peers and with customers. With such complexity to the market and IC technology, it is very important to work together to understand challenges and identify where there are opportunities to provide value to customers, ultimately helping them to make the right investments and meet their ramps.

Controlling manufacturing variability key to success at 10nm

Rick_Gottscho_Lam_ResearchRichard Gottscho, Ph.D., Executive Vice President, Global Products, Lam Research Corporation 

This year, the semiconductor industry should see the emergence of chip-making at the 10nm technology node. When building devices with geometries this small, controlling manufacturing process variability is essential and most challenging since variation tolerance scales with device dimensions.

Controlling variability has always been important for improving yield and device performance. With every advance in technology and change in design rule, tighter process controls are needed to achieve these benefits. At the 22/20nm technology node, for instance, variation tolerance for CDs (critical dimensions) can be as small as one nanometer, or about 14 atomic layers; for the 10nm node, it can be less than 0.5nm, or just 3 – 4 atomic layers. Innovations that drive continuous scaling to sub-20nm nodes, such as 3D FinFET devices and double/quadruple patterning schemes, add to the challenge of reducing variability. For example, multiple patterning processes require more stringent control of each step because additional process steps are needed to create the initial mask:  more steps mean more variability overall. Multiple patterning puts greater constraints not only on lithography, but also on deposition and etching.

Three types of process variation must be addressed:  within each die or integrated circuit at an atomic level, from die to die (across the wafer), and from wafer to wafer (within a lot, lot to lot, chamber to chamber, and fab to fab). At the device level, controlling CD variation to within a few atoms will increasingly require the application of technologies such as atomic layer deposition (ALD) and atomic layer etching (ALE). Historically, some of these processes were deemed too slow for commercial production. Fortunately, we now have cost-effective solutions, and they are finding their way into volume manufacturing.

To complement these capabilities, advanced process control (APC) will be incorporated into systems to tune chemical and electrical gradients across the wafer, further reducing die-to-die variation. In addition, chamber matching has never been more important. Big data analytics and subsystem diagnostics are being developed and deployed to ensure that every system in a fab produces wafers with the same process results to atomic precision.

Looking ahead, we expect these new capabilities for advanced variability control to move into production environments sometime this year, enabling 10nm-node device fabrication.

2015: The year 3D-IC integration finally comes of age

SONY DSCPaul Lindner, Executive Technology Director, EV Group

2015 will mark an important turning point in the course of 3D-IC technology adoption, as the semiconductor industry moves 3D-IC fully out of development and prototyping stages onto the production floor. In several applications, this transition is already taking place. To date, at least a dozen components in a typical smart phone employing 3D-IC manufacturing technologies. While the application processor and memory in these smart devices continue to be stacked at a package level (POP), many other device components—including image sensors, MEMS, RF front end and filter devices—are now realizing the promise of 3D-IC, namely reduced form factor, increased performance and most importantly reduced manufacturing cost.

The increasing adoption of wearable mobile consumer products will also accelerate the need for higher density integration and reduced form factor, particularly with respect to MEMS devices. More functionality will be integrated both within the same device as well as within one package via 3D stacking. Nine-axis international measurement units (IMUs, which comprise three accelerometers, three gyroscopes and three magnetic axes) will see reductions in size, cost, power consumption and ease of integration.

On the other side of the data stream at data centers, expect to see new developments around 3D-IC technology coming to market in 2015 as well. Compound semiconductors integrated with photonics and CMOS will trigger the replacement of copper wiring with optical fibers to drive down power consumption and electricity costs, thanks to 3D stacking technologies. The recent introduction of stacked DRAM with high-performance microprocessors, such as Intel’s Knights Landing processor, already demonstrate how 3D-IC technology is finally delivering on its promises across many different applications.

Across these various applications that are integrating stacked 3D-IC architectures, wafer bonding will play a key role. This is true for 3D-ICs integrating through silicon vias (TSVs), where temporary bonding in the manufacturing flow or permanent bonding at the wafer-level is essential. It’s the case for reducing power consumption in wearable products integrating MEMS devices, where encapsulating higher vacuum levels will enable low-power operation of gyroscopes. Finally, wafer-level hybrid fusion bonding—a technology that permanently connects wafers both mechanically and electrically in a single process step and supports the development of thinner devices by eliminating adhesive thickness and the need for bumps and pillars—is one of the promising new processes that we expect to see utilized in device manufacturing starting in 2015.

2015: Curvilinear Shapes Are Coming

Aki_Fujimura_D2S_midresAki Fujimura, CEO, D2S

For the semiconductor industry, 2015 will be the start of one of the most interesting periods in the history of Moore’s Law. For the first time in two decades, the fundamental machine architecture of the mask writer is going to change over the next few years—from Variable Shaped Beam (VSB) to multi-beam. Multi-beam mask writing is likely the final frontier—the technology that will take us to the end of the Moore’s Law era. The write times associated with multi-beam writers are constant regardless of the complexity of the mask patterns, and this changes everything. It will open up a new world of opportunities for complex mask making that make trade-offs between design rules, mask/wafer yields and mask write-times a thing of the past. The upstream effects of this may yet be underappreciated.

While high-volume production of multi-beam mask writing machines may not arrive in time for the 10nm node, the industry is expressing little doubt of its arrival by the 7nm node. Since transitions of this magnitude take several years to successfully permeate through the ecosystem, 2015 is the right time to start preparing for the impact of this change.  Multi-beam mask writing enables the creation of very complex mask shapes (even ideal curvilinear shapes). When used in conjunction with optical proximity correction (OPC), inverse lithography technology (ILT) and pixelated masks, this enables more precise wafer writing with improved process margin.  Improving process margin on both the mask and wafer will allow design rules to be tighter, which will re-activate the transistor-density benefit of Moore’s Law.

The prospect of multi-beam mask writing makes it clear that OPC needs to yield better wafer quality by taking advantage of complex mask shapes. This clear direction for the future and the need for more process margin and overlay accuracy at the 10nm node aligns to require complex mask shapes at 10nm. Technologies such as model-based mask data preparation (MB-MDP) will take center stage in 2015 as a bridge to 10nm using VSB mask writing.

Whether for VSB mask writing or for multi-beam mask writing, the shapes we need to write on masks are increasingly complex, increasingly curvilinear, and smaller in minimum width and space. The overwhelming trend in mask data preparation is the shift from deterministic, rule-based, geometric, context-independent, shape-modulated, rectangular processing to statistical, simulation-based, context-dependent, dose- and shape-modulated, any-shape processing. We will all be witnesses to the start of this fundamental change as 2015 unfolds. It will be a very exciting time indeed.

Data integration and advanced packaging driving growth in 2015

mike_plisinski_hiMike Plisinski, Chief Operating Officer, Rudolph Technologies, Inc.

We see two important trends that we expect to have major impact in 2015. The first is a continuing investment in developing and implementing 3D integration and advanced packaging processes, driven not only by the demand for more power and functionality in smaller volumes, but also by the dramatic escalation in the number and density I/O lines per die. This includes not only through silicon vias, but also copper pillar bumps, fan-out packaging, hyper-efficient panel-based packaging processes that use dedicated lithography system on rectangular substrates. As the back end adopts and adapts processes from the front end, the lines that have traditionally separated these areas are blurring. Advanced packaging processes require significantly more inspection and control than conventional packaging and this trend is still only in its early stages.

The other trend has a broader impact on the market as a whole. As consumer electronics becomes a more predominant driver of our industry, manufacturers are under increasing pressure to ramp new products faster and at higher volumes than ever before. Winning or losing an order from a mega cell phone manufacturer can make or break a year, and those orders are being won based on technology and quality, not only price as in the past. This is forcing manufacturers to look for more comprehensive solutions to their process challenges. Instead of buying a tool that meets certain criteria of their established infrastructure, then getting IT to connect it and interpret the data and write the charts and reports for the process engineers so they can use the tool, manufacturers are now pushing much of this onto their vendors, saying, “We want you to provide a working tool that’s going to meet these specs right away and provide us the information we need to adjust and control our process going forward.” They want information, not just data.

Rudolph has made, and will continue to make, major investments in the development of automated analytics for process data. Now more than ever, when our customer buys a system from us, whatever its application – lithography, metrology, inspection or something new, they also want to correlate the data it generates with data from other tools across the process in order to provide more information about process adjustments. We expect these same customer demands to drive a new wave of collaboration among vendors, and we welcome the opportunity to work together to provide more comprehensive solutions for the benefit of our mutual customers.

Process Data – From Famine to Feast

Jack Hager Head ShotJack Hager, Product Marketing Manager, FEI

As shrinking device sizes have forced manufacturers to move from SEM to TEM for analysis and measurement of critical features, process and integration engineers have often found themselves having to make critical decisions using meagre rations of process data. Recent advances in automated TEM sample preparation, using FIBs to prepare high quality, ultra-thin site-specific samples, have opened the tap on the flow of data. Engineers can now make statistically-sound decisions in an environment of abundant data. The availability of fast, high-quality TEM data has whet their appetites for even more data, and the resulting demand is drawing sample preparation systems, and in some cases, TEMs, out of remote laboratories and onto the fab floor or in a “near-line” location. With the high degree of automation of both the sample preparation and TEM, the process engineers, who ultimately consume the data, can now own and operate the systems that generate this data, thus having control over the amount of data created.

The proliferation of exotic materials and new 3D architectures at the most advanced nodes has dramatically increased the need for fast, accurate process data. The days when performance improvements required no more than a relatively simple “shrink” of basically 2D designs using well-understood processes are long gone. Complex, new processes require additional monitoring to aide in process control and failure analysis troubleshooting. Defects, both electrical and physical, are not only more numerous, but typically smaller and more varied. These defects are often buried below the exposed surface which limits traditional inline defect-monitoring equipment effectiveness. This has resulted in renewed challenges in diagnosing their root causes. TEM analysis now plays a more prevalent role providing defect insights that allow actionable process changes.

While process technologies have changed radically, market fundamentals have not. First to market still commands premium prices and builds market share. And time to market is determined largely by the speed with which new manufacturing processes can be developed and ramped to high yields at high volumes. It is in these critical phases of development and ramp that the speed and accuracy of automated sample preparation and TEM analysis is proving most valuable. The methodology has already been adopted by leading manufacturers across the industry – logic and memory, IDM and foundry. We expect the adoption to continue, and with it, the migration of sample preparation and advanced measurement and analytical systems into the fab. 

Diversification of processes, materials will drive integration and customization in sub-fab

Kate Wilson PhotoKate Wilson, Global Applications Director, Edwards

We expect the proliferation of new processes, materials and architectures at the most advanced nodes to drive significant changes in the sub fab where we live. In particular, we expect to see a continuing move toward the integration of vacuum pumping and abatement functions, with custom tuning to optimize performance for the increasingly diverse array of applications becoming a requirement. There is an increased requirement for additional features around the core units such as thermal management, heated N2 injection, and precursor treatment pre- and post-pump that also need to be managed.

Integration offers clear advantages, not only in cost savings but also in safety, speed of installation, smaller footprint, consistent implementation of correct components, optimized set-ups and controlled ownership of the process effluents until they are abated reliably to safe levels. The benefits are not always immediately apparent. Just as effective integration is much more than simply adding a pump to an abatement system, the initial cost of an integrated system is more than the cost of the individual components. The cost benefits in a properly integrated system accrue primarily from increased efficiencies and reliability over the life of the system, and the magnitude of the benefit depends on the complexity of the process. In harsh applications, including deposition processes such as CVD, Epi and ALD, integrated systems provide significant improvements in uptime, service intervals and product lifetimes as well as significant safety benefits.

The trend toward increasing process customization impacts the move toward integration through its requirement that the integrator have detailed knowledge of the process and its by-products. Each manufacturer may use a slightly different recipe and a small change in materials or concentrations can have a large effect on pumping and abatement performance. This variability must be addressed not only in the design of the integrated system but also in tuning its operation during initial commissioning and throughout its lifetime to achieve optimal performance. Successful realization of the benefits of integration will rely heavily on continuing support based on broad application knowledge and experience.

Giga-scale challenges will dominate 2015

Dr. Zhihong Liu

Dr. Zhihong Liu, Executive Chairman, ProPlus Design Solutions, Inc.

It wasn’t all that long ago when nano-scale was the term the semiconductor industry used to describe small transistor sizes to indicate technological advancement. Today, with Moore’s Law slowing down at sub-28nm, the term more often heard is giga-scale due to a leap forward in complexity challenges caused in large measure by the massive amounts of big data now part of all chip design.

Nano-scale technological advancement has enabled giga-sized applications for more varieties of technology platforms, including the most popular mobile, IoT and wearable devices. EDA tools must respond to such a trend. On one side, accurately modeling nano-scale devices, including complex physical effects due to small geometry sizes and complicated device structures, has increased in importance and difficulties. Designers now demand more from foundries and have higher standards for PDK and model accuracies. They need to have a deep understanding of the process platform in order to  make their chip or IP competitive.

On the other side, giga-scale designs require accurate tools to handle increasing design size. The small supply voltage associated with technology advancement and low-power applications, and the impact of various process variation effects, have reduced available design margins. Furthermore, the big circuit size has made the design sensitive to small leakage current and small noise margin. Accuracy will soon become the bottleneck for giga-scale designs.

However, traditional design tools for big designs, such as FastSPICE for simulation and verification, mostly trade-off accuracy for capacity and performance. One particular example will be the need for accurate memory design, e.g., large instance memory characterization, or full-chip timing and power verification. Because embedded memory may occupy more than 50 percent of chip die area, it will have a significant impact on chip performance and power. For advanced designs, power or timing characterization and verification require much higher accuracy than what FastSPICE can offer –– 5 percent or less errors compared to golden SPICE.

To meet the giga-scale challenges outlined above, the next-generation circuit simulator must offer the high accuracy of a traditional SPICE simulator, and have similar capacity and performance advantages of a FastSPICE simulator. New entrants into the giga-scale SPICE simulation market readily handle the latest process technologies, such as 16/14nm FinFET, which adds further challenges to capacity and accuracy.

One giga-scale SPICE simulator can cover small and large block simulations, characterization, or full-chip verifications, with a pure SPICE engine that guarantees accuracy, and eliminates inconsistencies in the traditional design flow.  It can be used as the golden reference for FastSPICE applications, or directly replace FastSPICE for memory designs.

The giga-scale era in chip design is here and giga-scale SPICE simulators are commercially available to meet the need.

North American quantum dot manufacturer Quantum Materials Corp today announced it is increasing production capacity to 2000 kilograms (2 metric tons) of quantum dots and nanoparticles per annum in Q2 2015. The Company is able to leverage short development timelines to plan for increasing quantum dot production and anticipates further production expansion during the remainder of 2015.

“We have achieved quality, uniformity and scalability goals with our patented continuous-flow manufacturing process,” said Quantum Materials Corp CEO Stephen Squires, “and so are making the investments in production capacity and people to meet market demand for high-quality quantum dots. We have also made great strides in ramping-up volume production of both Cadmium-core and Cadmium-free (aka heavy-metal free) quantum dots. We perceive Cadmium-free quantum dots will drive future use, particularly in electronic goods destined for highly environmentally-regulated regions such as the European Union.”

The company has made significant capital investment in new automated nanoreactors, expanded lab space and scientific staffing to fulfill quality and quantity requirements for quantum dots in consumer electronics applications. Quantum Materials’ patented continuous-flow process produces quantum dots in the high volumes, uniformity and reliability needed for integration into UHD 4K LCD display, solid-state lighting, solar and biotech manufacturing industries. Up to this point, competitors’ batch synthesis methods have inhibited quantum dot-use in consumer electronics due to the limitations of a highly manual process in controlling quantum yield, color purity, volume production and the resultant higher production costs.

The company also released today an informative video detailing heavy–metal free quantum dot use and benefits in LCD display manufacturing.

Quantum Materials is at the forefront of Cadmium-free quantum dot development to allow manufacturers to meet and stay ahead of future environmental regulations governing dangerous materials in consumer electronic devices. Quantum dots are easily integrated into the industry-standard thin-film roll-to-roll inkjet and surface deposition technologies currently used in existing LCD display production lines and other next-generation printed electronics.

Quantum Materials executives CEO Stephen Squires and Senior Director of Business Development for Asia and the Pacific Toshi Ando are meeting with major LCD manufacturers at the 2015 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES). They will be participating in the Distributed Computing Industry Association’s (DCIA) “Internet of Things (IoT) Marathon” webcast.

Global shipments of diagnostic displays are forecast to grow at a 5 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), between 2014 and 2018. According to the latest DisplaySearch Specialty Displays Report, larger high-resolution wide-aspect-ratio displays are starting to become more popular, but 21.3-inch displays had a 67 percent share of unit shipments and a 65 percent share of revenues in the first half of 2014.

“The majority of future shipment growth will take place in emerging regions, not in developed regions, where much of the growth has previously occurred,” said Todd Fender, senior analyst professional and commercial displays for DisplaySearch, now part of IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS). “At the county level, brands are looking to China, as the largest opportunity of growth, followed closely by Latin America.“

Fig. 1

Veteran radiologists who were trained on, and had previously read, images on traditional x-ray film using light boxes have been the driving force behind the continued strength of 21.3-inch displays with a 4:3 aspect ratio; however, as younger doctors enter the workforce, the legacy of film and grayscale-only images will slowly fade away. For example, in the first half of 2014, 43 percent of diagnostic displays were grayscale, but by 2018 these displays will represent just 34 percent of the market.

In today’s traditional picture archiving and communication (PACS) display ecosystem, multiple displays are used to review and read images; however, this configuration may lead to lower productivity and faster eye fatigue. Larger and higher resolution single screens have entered the market over the last few years, in an attempt to reduce or eliminate these issues. Displays with 6 megapixels (MP) to 10 (and higher) MPs are forecast to increase over the next several years, as users migrate from multiple screens to single-screen viewing.

Table 1

Clinical Review Displays and Surgical Displays

Similar to diagnostic shipments, clinical-review-display shipments are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4 percent, between 2014 and 2018.  More than eight in 10 (83 percent) of clinical review display sizes fall between 19 inches and 22 inches, and 98 percent have a resolution of 2 MP or lower. “There will be a gradual shift to 4 MP and 8 MP wide aspect ratio displays as availability increases and as prices fall,” Fender said.

Surgical display shipments are forecast to grow more than any other medical-imaging category, reaching 7 percent CAGR between 2014 and 2018. Although almost half of surgical displays fall between 15 inches and 20 inches, the fastest area of growth is forecast to be in displays that 55 inches and larger, which are expected to grow at a 23 percent CAGR between 2014 and 2018. Additionally, 8 megapixel and 9 megapixel displays will grow significantly between 2014 and 2018; however, neither resolution will make up a large portion of the surgical display market.

“Larger displays are becoming more affordable, and they are being installed in surgical rooms as medical on-site and virtual professional collaboration becomes more popular,” Fender said. “Larger screens are much easier for multiple viewers, and many are also used as live teaching devices.”

LCD TV makers are responding to the challenge of OLED, with quantum dot (QD) technology, curved screens and other innovations. According to new information from DisplaySearch, now part of IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), in order to boost consumer value in the LCD television market, 4K ultra-high-definition (UHD) enhanced-color LCD TVs, using quantum dot (QD) technology will become available in 2015, with 1.3 million shipping worldwide. Shipments of quantum dot TVs are expected to grow to 18.7 million in 2018.

“While LCD technology undisputedly dominates the TV scene, manufacturers continue to innovate, in order to bring additional value to consumers,” said Paul Gray, director of European research at DisplaySearch. “The launch of new 4K UHD services promises to foment another round of innovation, as content creators bring richer, deeper colors to their art. Curved screens are also a popular feature this year, but there will be limited opportunity for growth, as the market for this feature is expected to peak next year.”

Based on information in the DisplaySearch Quarterly TV Design and Features ReportITU-R Recommendation BT.2020 (rec.2020) colors promise a new level of fidelity that beyond the range of current high-definition TVs. “While broadcasters and cinematographers have begun to capture such images, the television industry has just started to respond to the challenge,” Gray said.

Fig 1

“Quantum dot is one of the weapons that the LCD industry is using to create ever more faithful images, which are very close to the full viewable range of the human eye,” Gray said. “Broadcasters are finalizing their plans for UHD, but they very clearly want there to be more to their UHD services than simply extra pixels. Richer colors work on any screen size, regardless of one’s visual acuity, and subtle shading increases the perception of reality. Quantum dot is part of the LCD industry’s response to the challenge posed by OLED technology and its use demonstrates that there is still room for innovation.”

Curved LCD TVs

A similar response to the challenge posed by OLED can be seen in the emergence of curved LCD TVs, which proves that LCD has further opportunities for innovation. In fact 1.8 million curved TVs are expected to ship in 2014, peaking at 8.2 million in 2016 and 2017. DisplaySearch analysts anticipate that Western Europe will be the dominant region for curved TVs, with 2.6 million shipping in both 2016 and 2017, resulting from consumer taste for unique design and Samsung’s dominant market share.

“Curved TVs are an industry styling fashion, in the same way that sets became very thin when the first LED backlights were introduced,” Gray said. “In due course, such fashions can burn through, leaving enduring value. For example, the legacy of thin TVs is their lower power consumption. It is easy to dismiss fashion, but it remains a critical element in maintaining value and consumer interest in the TV category.”

Fig 2

The Quarterly TV Design and Features Report tracks all 4K UHD TV product ranges, forecasts, video processing and broadcasting; plus, detailed information on other aspects of TV design such as smart TV, backlighting technology, OLED and 3D. This report is delivered in PowerPoint and includes Excel-based data and tables.

Worldwide semiconductor market revenue is on track to achieve a 9.4 percent expansion this year, with broad-based growth across multiple chip segments driving the best industry performance since 2010.

Global revenue in 2014 is expected to total $353.2 billion, up from $322.8 billion in 2013, according to a preliminary estimate from IHS Technology (NYSE: IHS). The nearly double-digit-percentage increase follows respectable growth of 6.4 percent in 2013, a decline of more than 2.0 percent in 2012 and a marginal increase of 1.0 percent in 2011. The performance in 2014 represents the highest rate of annual growth since the 33 percent boom of 2010.

“This is the healthiest the semiconductor business has been in many years, not only in light of the overall growth, but also because of the broad-based nature of the market expansion,” said Dale Ford, vice president and chief analyst at IHS Technology. “While the upswing in 2013 was almost entirely driven by growth in a few specific memory segments, the rise in 2014 is built on a widespread increase in demand for a variety of different types of chips. Because of this, nearly all semiconductor suppliers can enjoy good cheer as they enter the 2014 holiday season.”

More information on this topic can be found in the latest release of the Competitive Landscaping Tool from the Semiconductors & Components service at IHS.

Widespread growth

Of the 28 key sub-segments of the semiconductor market tracked by IHS, 22 are expected to expand in 2014. In contrast, only 12 sub-segments of the semiconductor industry grew in 2013.

Last year, the key drivers of the growth of the semiconductor market were dynamic random access memory (DRAM) and data flash memory. These two memory segments together grew by more than 30 percent while the rest of the market only expanded by 1.5 percent.

This year, the combined revenue for DRAM and data flash memory is projected to rise about 20 percent. However, growth in the rest of the market will swell by 6.7 percent to support the overall market increase of 9.4 percent.

In 2013, only eight semiconductor sub-segments grew by 5 percent or more and only three achieved double-digit growth. In 2014, over half of all the sub-segments—i.e., 15—will grow by more than 5 percent and eight markets will grow by double-digit percentages.

This pervasive growth is delivering general benefits to semiconductor suppliers, with 70 percent of chipmakers expected to enjoy revenue growth this year, up from 53 percent in 2013.

The figure below presents the growth of the DRAM and data flash segments compared to the rest of the semiconductor market in 2013 and 2014.

2014-12-18_Semi_Sectors_Growth

Semiconductor successes

The two market segments enjoying the strongest and most consistent growth in the last two years are DRAM and light-emitting diodes (LEDs). DRAM revenue will climb 33 percent for two years in a row in 2013 and 2014. This follows often strong declines in DRAM revenue in five of the last six years.

The LED market is expected to grow by more than 11 percent in 2014. This continues an unbroken period of growth for LED revenues stretching back at least 13 years.

Major turnarounds are occurring in the analog, discrete and microprocessor markets as they will swing from declines to strong growth in every sub-segment. Most segments will see their growth improve by more than 10 percent, compared to the declines experienced in 2013.

Furthermore, programmable logic device (PLD) and digital signal processor (DSP) application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) will experience dramatic improvements in growth. PLD revenue in 2014 will grow by 10.2 percent compared to 2.1 percent in 2013, and DSP ASICs will rise by 3.8 percent compared to a 31.9 percent collapse in 2013.

Moving on up

Among the top 20 semiconductor suppliers, MediaTek and Avago Technologies attained the largest revenue growth and rise in the rankings in 2014. Both companies benefited from significant acquisitions.

MediaTek is expected to jump up five places to the 10th rank and become the first semiconductor company headquartered in Taiwan to break into the Top 10. Avago Technologies is projected to jump up eight positions in the rankings to No. 15.

The strongest growth by a semiconductor company based purely on organic revenue increase is expected to be achieved by SK Hynix, with projected growth of nearly 23 percent.

No. 13-ranked Infineon has announced its plan to acquire International Rectifier. If that acquisition is finalized in 2014 the combined companies would jump to No. 10 in the overall rankings and enjoy 16 percent combined growth.

The table below presents the preliminary IHS ranking of the world’s top 20 semiconductor suppliers in 2013 and 2014 based on revenue.

2014-12-18_Semi_Ranking_Final

Troubles for consumer electronics and Japan

Semiconductor revenue in 2014 will grow in five of the six major semiconductor application end markets, i.e. data processing, wired communications, wireless communications, automotive electronics and industrial electronics. The only market segment experiencing a decline will be consumer electronics. Revenue will expand by double-digit percentages in four of the six markets.

Japan continues to struggle, and is the only worldwide region that will see a decline in semiconductor revenues this year. The other three geographies—Asia-Pacific, the Americas and the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region—will see healthy growth. The world will be led by led by Asia-Pacific which will post an expected revenue increase of 12.5 percent.

By DAVE HEMKER, Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, Lam Research Corp.

Given the current buzz around the Internet of Things (IoT), it is easy to lose sight of the challenges
– both economic and technical. On the economic side is the need to cost-effectively manufacture up to a trillion sensors used to gather data, while on the technical side, the challenge involves building out the infrastructure. This includes enabling the transmission, storage, and analysis of volumes of data far exceeding anything we see today. These divergent needs will drive the semiconductor equipment industry to provide very different types of manufacturing solutions to support the IoT.

In order to fulfill the promise of the IoT, sensor technology will need to become nearly ubiquitous in our businesses, homes, electronic products, cars, and even our clothing. Per-unit costs for sensors will need to be kept very low to ensure the technology is economically viable. To support this need, trailing-edge semiconductor manufacturing capabilities provide a viable option since fully depreciated wafer processing equipment can produce chips cost efficiently. For semiconductor equipment suppliers, this translates into additional sales of refurbished and productivity-focused equipment and upgrades that improve yield, throughput, and running costs. In addition to being produced inexpensively, sensors intended for use in the IoT will need to meet several criteria. First, they need to operate on very low amounts of power. In fact, some may even be self-powered via MEMS (microelectromechanical systems)-based oscillators or the collection of environmental radio frequency energy, also known as energy harvesting/scavenging. Second, they will involve specialized functions, for example, the ability to monitor pH or humidity. Third, to enable the transmission of data collected to the supporting infrastructure, good wireless communications capabilities will be important. Finally, sensors will need to be small, easily integrated into other structures – such as a pane of glass, and available in new form factors – like flexible substrates for clothing. Together, these new requirements will drive innovation in chip technology across the semiconductor industry’s ecosystem.

The infrastructure needed to support the IoT, in contrast, will require semiconductor performance to continue its historical advancement of doubling every 18-24 months. Here, the challenges are a result of the need for vast amounts of networking, storage in the Cloud, and big data analysis. Additionally, many uses for the IoT will involve risks far greater than those that exist in today’s internet. With potential medical and transportation applications, for example, the results of data analysis performed in real time can literally be a matter of life or death. Likewise, managing the security and privacy of the data being generated will be paramount. The real-world nature of things also adds an enormous level of complexity in terms of predictive analysis.

Implementing these capabilities and infrastructure on the scale imagined in the IoT will require far more powerful memory and logic devices than are currently available. This need will drive the continued extension of Moore’s Law and demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing capability, such as atomic-scale wafer processing. Controlling manufacturing process variability will also become increasingly important to ensure that every device in the new, interconnected world operates as expected.

With development of the IoT, semiconductor equipment companies can look forward to opportunities beyond communications and computing, though the timing of its emergence is uncertain. For wafer processing equipment suppliers in particular, new markets for leading-edge systems used in the IoT infrastructure and productivity-focused upgrades for sensor manufacturing are expected to develop.

Cypress Semiconductor Corp. and Spansion, Inc. this week announced a definitive agreement to merge in an all-stock, tax-free transaction valued at approximately $4 billion. The post-merger company will generate more than $2 billion in revenue annually.

“This merger represents the combination of two smart, profitable, passionately entrepreneurial companies that are No. 1 in their respective memory markets and have successfully diversified into embedded processing,” said Rodgers, Cypress’s founding president and CEO. “Our combined company will be a leading provider of embedded MCUs and specialized memories. We will also have extraordinary opportunities for EPS accretion due to the synergy in virtually every area of our enterprises.”

Under the terms of the agreement, Spansion shareholders will receive 2.457 Cypress shares for each Spansion share they own. The shareholders of each company will own approximately 50 percent of the post-merger company. The company will have an eight-person board of directors consisting of four Cypress directors, including T.J. Rodgers and Eric Benhamou, and four Spansion directors, including John Kispert and Ray Bingham, the Spansion chairman, who will serve as the non-executive chairman of the combined company, which will be headquartered in San Jose, California and called Cypress Semiconductor Corporation.

The merger is expected to achieve more than $135 million in cost synergies on an annualized basis within three years and to be accretive to non-GAAP earnings within the first full year after the transaction closes. The combined company will continue to pay $0.11per share in quarterly dividends to shareholders.

“Bringing together these high-performing organizations creates operating efficiencies and economies of scale, and will deliver maximum value for our shareholders, new opportunities for employees and an improved experience for our customers,” said John Kispert, CEO of Spansion. “With unparalleled expertise, global reach in markets like Japan and market-leading products for automotive, IoT, industrial and communications markets, the new company is well positioned to deliver best-of-breed solutions and execute on our long-term vision of adding value through embedded system-on-chip solutions.”

The closing of the transaction is subject to customary conditions, including approval by Cypress and Spansion stockholders and review by regulators in the U.S., Germany and China. The transaction has been unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both companies. Cypress and Spansion expect the deal to close in the first half of 2015.

Jefferies LLC and Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC served as financial advisors and Fenwick & West and Latham & Watkins acted as legal counsel to Spansion. Qatalyst Partners acted as financial advisor and Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati acted as legal counsel to Cypress.

Third quarter (Q3) TV shipments improved 4 percent, compared to a year ago, and LCD TV shipments alone rose nearly 9 percent, according to the latest findings from the Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report, produced by DisplaySearch, now part of IHS Inc.

Annual TV shipment growth averaged less than 1 percent on a unit and revenue basis in the first half of 2014, with LCD TV growth barely compensating for declining shipments of plasma and CRT TVs. However, a continued strong trend of shipment growth in North America continues to be a catalyst, evidenced by LCD TV growth exceeding 12 percent Q3 2014 compared to the prior year.

LCD TV shipments from China rose 9 percent, compared to a soft period a year ago following the end of government subsidies, and despite modest sales results during the Chinese Golden Week of public holidays in the fall. Asia-Pacific region results were also quite strong, led by improved growth in an economically improved India, where more favorable currency valuations are making LCD TVs affordable to a wider group of Indian consumers.

“While the last several years in the TV business have been difficult in terms of overall shipments and revenue, the market is showing some broad resiliency now, with most regions enjoying growth in the third quarter,” said Paul Gagnon, director of global TV research at DisplaySearch.“Consumption for primary TVs is entering a renewed replacement cycle in some key regions, while adoption of larger screen sizes and 4K and other higher resolutions will keep consumers upgrading.”

Although 4K TVs have been available for several years now, shipments in 2014 have significantly accelerated, due to broader competition and more accessible price points activating new consumer groups. Year-over-year 4K TV shipments jumped more than 500 percent in Q3 to top 3 million units, bringing total shipments to 6.4 million units in 2014.

China remains the focal point for 4K TV unit volume growth, accounting for more than 60 percent of global 4K TV shipments in Q3; plus, it has the highest 4K unit shipment mix of any region, at more than 13 percent. With 6 percent of the market, the next strongest region for 4K TV unit shipment mix was Western Europe, which is a significant increase since the beginning of the year.

“With a scarcity of content and streaming options, much of the early success in 4K will rely on education campaigns from brands and price compression allowing for better affordability,” Gagnon said.

China is the leading 4K TV consumer market, and local Chinese brands are now fiercely competing with Samsung, which is aggressively pushing for growth in China and leads all 4K brands in the nation, after debuting a greatly expanded lineup in Q2. In fact, with 36 percent share of the 4K TV shipments, Samsung led the market on a revenue basis globally in Q3. The company significantly outpaces all other brands. Chinese brands have a stronger share, thanks to greater unit volume within China, and a low average price compared to global brands competing in markets outside of China. However, with the arrival of greater competition in North America and other markets, as well as rising 4K TV exports from Chinese brands, competitive price compression will be difficult to avoid for most brands.

Slideshow: IEDM 2014 Preview


November 26, 2014

This year, the IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting (IEDM) celebrates 60 years of reporting technological breakthroughs in the areas of semiconductor and electronic device technology, design, manufacturing, physics, and modeling. The conference scope not only encompasses devices in silicon, compound and organic semiconductors, but also in emerging material systems. In 2014 there is an increased emphasis on circuit and process technology interaction, energy harvesting, bio-snesors and bioMEMS, power devices, magnetics and spintronics, two dimensional electronics and devices for non-Boolean computing.

Solid State Technology will be reporting insights from bloggers and industry partners during the conference, and this slideshow provides an advance look at some of the most newsworthy topics and papers to be presented at the annual meeting, to be held at the Hilton San Francisco Union Square Hotel from December 15-17, 2014.

Click here to launch slideshow

Bay Bridge, San Francisco at dusk

 

Related news and blogs: 

Intel and IBM to lay out 14nm FinFET strategies on competing substrates at IEDM 2014

Slideshow: IEDM 2013 Highlights

TFT LCD panel suppliers are rejuvenating their large-area panel business plans this year as the market demand for key applications grows. According to the latest DisplaySearch Quarterly Large-Area TFT Panel Shipment Report, TFT panel suppliers are forecast to ship 718 million large area (9-inch-and-larger) panels, an increase of 3 percent over the previous year. Due to recent panel price increases, and TVs with larger average area sizes, large-area TFT LCD revenue is forecast to reach $75 billion this year.

“2013 was the first year large-area TFT LCD panel shipments and revenues declined; however, a market rebound beginning in the second quarter of 2014 has enabled panel makers to reach their business plans,” said David Hsieh, vice president of the greater China market for DisplaySearch, now part of IHS. ”Strong growth in the average sizes of LCD TVs, and inventory shortages in those sizes, have transformed the industry atmosphere, enabling panel makers to increase prices and expand shipment volumes.

According to DisplaySearch LCD TV panel shipments reached an historic high of 64 million units in the second quarter (Q2) of 2014, which revealed stronger-than-expected momentum in downstream inventory preparation. The following quarter, shipments were even higher, reaching a new record high of 65 million units.

Panel technology improvements that bolstered shipments included 4K panels, super-slim bezels, higher transmittance open-cell technology, higher resolutions, in-plane switching (IPS) and fringe-field switching (FFS), ultra-slim and lightweight form factors, and higher color gamut. Other recent improvements in integration included up-scaling circuitry, touch screens and mechanical parts.

OLED panels for high-resolution tablet PCs (e.g., 280-360 PPI) is expected to reach 5 million units in 2014, which is a new milestone for the category. “2013 was a year of convergence, between inventory adjustments and panel value upgrades, which set the stage for better results this year, in a tightening market with a surge in panel shipments,” Hsieh said.

Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Large Area TFT Panel Shipment Report

Source: DisplaySearch Quarterly Large Area TFT Panel Shipment Report

According to panel makers’ business plans, shipments of notebook PCs and mini-note panels are forecast to reach nearly 197 million units this year, which is a 5 percent year-over-year growth rate. In the first half of this year, panel makers’ conservative estimates for notebook PC panels induced a shortage.

Beginning in 2013 panel makers upgraded to full-high-definition (FHD) and other high-resolution formats, and they also began to adopt flat light-guide backlight plates for ultra-slim panels. Slim and ultra-slim notebook PC panels comprised 76 percent of shipments in the third quarter of 2014.

Smartphone cannibalization of tablet PC sales, and the maturity of the smaller tablet PCs, has encouraged tablet PC panel makers to increase shipments of 9-inch-and-larger screens, which increased 9 percent in 2014 over the previous year.

AMOLED has been successfully introduced in the tablet PC market, to accommodate higher color gamut, increase slimness and reduced weight, in order to maximize the future potential of more flexible form factor designs,” Hsieh said.

Due to the maturity of the desktop PC market, and the slow replacement cycle for these devices, overall shipments of LCD monitor panels fell 5 percent to 153 million units in 2014, which is the lowest level since 2006. Panel makers are now planning to shift to larger sizes, and they expect to add more value-added products of various sizes and higher resolutions, including 2560×1440 and 4K LCD monitors.

LCD TV panel shipments are expected to grow 5 percent this year, reaching 249 million units. On an area basis, LCD TV shipment area is expected to increase 15 percent, year over year, from 97 million square meters in 2013 to 112 million square meters in 2014; meanwhile, manufacturers are also planning to ship more than 20 million 4K TV panels this year.

The market for LCD public displays is expected to grow 39 percent this year, due to the demise of plasma display panels, and the strong momentum for digital signage. “Industrial applications and soaring growth in larger automotive displays is also pushing large-area TFT growth,” Hsieh noted.

The DisplaySearch Quarterly Large Area TFT Panel Shipment Report covers the entire range of large-area panels shipped worldwide and regionally, with complete coverage of panel makers. For more information about the report, please contact your regional DisplaySearch office.