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SmartKem, a supplier of high performance semiconductor materials for the manufacture of truly flexible displays and electronics, has announced the opening of a new thin-film-transistor (TFT) fabrication and testing facility at the company’s Manchester site – doubling the size of the company.

The expansion is set to provide comprehensive support to product development agreements, allowing partners to rapidly develop market-driven, flexible TFT-based products for applications in the display, touchscreen and sensor industries.

Together with the company’s organic synthesis technology and material formulation laboratories the center will offer complete turn-key support for its ground-breaking tru-FLEX technology platform in the development of flexible electronics applications. This will provide partners with additional services across the value chain from material synthesises, formulation and validation of the technology in transistor, circuit or end product form.

The new facility offers TFT device modelling, device stack design and a complete TFT fabrication suite including coating and evaporation equipment as well as a comprehensive test suite for device and circuit characterization including a semi-automated probe station. This not only augments SmartKem’s internal development work, but offers its customers comprehensive support in the rapid development of market driven flexible TFT-based products for application to the display, touchscreen and sensor industry.

The expansion and significant capital investment follows the recent Series A funding from a syndicate of leading investors including Finance Wales, BASF Venture Capital, Entrepreneurs Fund and Octopus Investments. Together with the creation of this new device facility expansion, SmartKem will also be increasing the size of its team by 30 percent with new members joining the synthesis, formulations and device technology groups.

Steve Kelly, Chief Executive of SmartKem, commented: “We are delighted with the speed with which we’ve managed to turn around the installation and commissioning of the new device facility. This is the final piece of the development cycle to bring in-house and the timing could not be better. We are seeing positive traction in the market for flexible electronics across the board from our core market of flexible AMOLED and EPD backplane drivers as well as many new and exciting applications. With the combined market for flexible display and electronics set to top $50 billion in the next 5 years, we are in great shape to continue to supply SmartKem tru-FLEX into new products and satisfy the growing market demand.”

Researchers from the University of Cambridge have identified a class of low-cost, easily-processed semiconducting polymers which, despite their seemingly disorganised internal structure, can transport electrons as efficiently as expensive crystalline inorganic semiconductors.

This is a high performance semiconducting polymer with an amorphous structure. Highlighted in yellow is a single chain demonstrating negligible backbone torsion. Credit: Deepak Venkateshvaran/Mark Nikolka

This is a high performance semiconducting polymer with an amorphous structure. Highlighted in yellow is a single chain demonstrating negligible backbone torsion.
Credit: Deepak Venkateshvaran/Mark Nikolka

In this new polymer, about 70% of the electrons are free to travel, whereas in conventional polymers that number can be less than 50%. The materials approach intrinsic disorder-free limits, which would enable faster, more efficient flexible electronics and displays. The results are published today (5 November) in the journal Nature.

For years, researchers have been searching for semiconducting polymers that can be solution processed and printed – which makes them much cheaper – but also retain well-defined electronic properties. These materials are used in printed electronic circuits, large-area solar cells and flexible LED displays.

However, a major problem with these materials – especially after they go through a messy wet coating, fast-drying printing process – is that they have an internal structure more like a bowl of spaghetti than the beautifully ordered crystal lattice found in most electronic or optoelectronic devices.

These nooks and crannies normally lead to poorer performance, as they make ideal places for the electrons which carry charge throughout the structure to become trapped and slowed down.

Polymer molecules consist of at least one long backbone chain, with shorter chains at the sides. It is these side chains which make conjugated polymers easy to process, but they also increase the amount of disorder, leading to more trapped electrons and poorer performance.

Now, the Cambridge researchers have discovered a class of conjugated polymers that are extremely tolerant to any form of disorder that is introduced by the side chains. “What is most surprising about these materials is that they appear amorphous, that is very disordered, at the microstructural level, while at the electronic level they allow electrons to move nearly as freely as in crystalline inorganic semiconductors,” said Mark Nikolka, a PhD student at the University’s Cavendish Laboratory and one of the lead authors of the study .

Using a combination of electrical and optical measurements combined with molecular simulations, the team of researchers led by Professor Henning Sirringhaus were able to measure that, electronically, the materials are approaching disorder-free limits and that every molecular unit along the polymer chain is able to participate in the transport of charges.

“These materials resemble tiny ribbons of graphene in which the electrons can zoom fast along the length of the polymer backbone, although not yet as fast as in graphene,” said Dr Deepak Venkateshvaran, the paper’s other lead author. “What makes them better than graphene, however, is they are much easier to process, and therefore much cheaper.”

The researchers plan to use these results to provide molecular design guidelines for a wider class of disorder-free conjugated polymers, which could open up a new range of flexible electronic applications. For example, these materials might be suitable for the electronics that will be needed to make the colour and video displays that are used in smartphones and tablets more lightweight, flexible and robust.

At first glance, the static, greyscale display created by a group of researchers from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, China might not catch the eye of a thoughtful consumer in a market saturated with flashy, colorful electronics. But a closer look at the specs could change that: the ultra-thin LCD screen described today in a paper in The Optical Society’s (OSA) journal Optics Letters is capable of holding three-dimensional images without a power source, making it a compact, energy-efficient way to display visual information.

Liquid crystal displays (LCDs) are used in numerous technological applications, from television screens to digital clock faces. In a traditional LCD, liquid crystal molecules are sandwiched between polarized glass plates. Electrodes pass current through the apparatus, influencing the orientation of the liquid crystals inside and manipulating the way they interact with the polarized light. The light and dark sections of the readout display are controlled by the amount of current flowing into them.

The new displays ditch the electrodes, simultaneously making the screen thinner and decreasing its energy requirements. Once an image is uploaded to the screen via a flash of light, no power is required to keep it there. Because these so-called bi-stable displays draw power only when the image is changed, they are particularly advantageous in applications where a screen displays a static image for most of the time, such as e-book readers or battery status monitors for electronic devices.

“Because the proposed LCD does not have any driving electronics, the fabrication is extremely simple. The bi-stable feature provides a low power consumption display that can store an image for several years,” said researcher Abhishek Srivastava, one of the authors of the paper.

The researchers went further than creating a simple LCD display, however—they engineered their screen to display images in 3D. Real-world objects appear three-dimensional because the separation between your left eye and your right creates perspective. 3D movies replicate this phenomenon on a flat screen by merging two films shot from slightly different angles, and the glasses that you wear during the film selectively filter the light, allowing one view to reach your left eye and another to fall on your right to create a three-dimensional image.

However, instead of displaying multiple images on separate panels and carefully aligning them—a tedious and time-consuming process—the researchers create the illusion of depth from a single image by altering the polarization of the light passing through the display. They divide the image into three zones: one in which the light is twisted 45 degrees to the left, another in which it is twisted 45 degrees to the right, and a third in which it is unmodified. When passed through a special filter, the light from the three zones is polarized in different directions. Glasses worn by the viewer then make the image appear three-dimensional by providing a different view to each eye.

This technology isn’t ready to hit the television market just yet: it only displays images in greyscale and can’t refresh them fast enough to show a film. However, Srivastava and his colleagues are in the process of optimizing their device for consumer use by adding color capabilities and improving the refresh rate. The thin profile and minimal energy requirements of devices could also make it useful in flexible displays or as a security measure on credit cards.

Wearable electronics are going from geek to chic, as new smartwatches from the likes of Apple and Samsung have set a new standard for technological bling.

At IFA 2014 in Berlin last month, the European consumer electronics show highlighted new smartwatches meant to entice consumers with more fashion-forward designs. Smartwatch makers hope to eventually legitimize wearable products as a category by improving their usability, and the secret sauce in this effort is an upgrade in design centered on the use of flexible displays. 

The display panel market for all types of wearable electronic items is forecast to enjoy very rapid growth in the years to come. From a projected $300 million this year, industry revenue will climb more than 80 percent annually for at least four more years as high resolution and color displays are increasingly adopted in devices. By 2023, the market will be worth some $22.7 billion, as shown in the attached figure.

In terms of shipments, the market will surge to 800 million units in 2023, up from 54 million in 2014.

Samsung, LG, Sony, Asus and Motorola were on hand at IFA to introduce proprietary offerings—ostensibly to get a head start on Apple, which unveiled its own smartwatches a few days later after the show, in which it does not participate. 

Samsung introduced the Gear S smart watch, which features a curved screen and a 2-inch super active-matrix organic light-emitting diode (AMOLED) flexible display that is large enough to accommodate a keyboard for the smartwatch.

For its part, LG introduced the G Watch R that flaunts a completely circular screen. With a 1.3-inch diameter, this round display has 57 percent more area than a square screen. The sleek P-AMOLED panel is less than 0.6mm thick and features 320 x 320 resolution, 100-percent color gamut, 300-nits peak luminance and unlimited contrast ratio, typical of an organic light-emitting diode (OLED) display.

LG Display recently started mass production of its revolutionary circular plastic P-OLED screen, made possible by the company’s development of a circular mask and new production processes that improve deposition efficiency and employ highly precise laser cutting. LG Display’s power-save mode, which enables the screen to retain its resolution without a power supply, has also contributed to longer battery life for the watch.

Like the G Watch R, Motorola’s Moto 360 also comes with an attractive round screen. Both the LG and Motorola models are powered by Android Wear as extensions of the Android smartwatch ecosystem. Meanwhile, the Samsung Gear S employs Samsung’s Tizen operating system.

After months of rumors, Apple finally introduced the Apple Watch—fashionably late but highly anticipated. Set to be available at the beginning of 2015 with a starting price of $349, Apple Watch will use a square display. Detailed specs about the display are still not available, but the wearable timepieces will employ a flexible Retina display. According to Apple, the display is “not just a display but the focal point of the whole experience.” Its advertised flexibility, high-energy efficiency and very-high contrast mean it likely will use an OLED display.

And just like the iPhone, Apple Watch will have the solid advantage of application support from its entrenched ecosystem fully behind the product. 

Imperatives for wearable displays

Developments in flexible displays have opened up new opportunities for wearable devices, enabling the kind of design innovations seen in the latest group of smartwatch products at IFA.

“Wearables are best viewed as functional fashion accessories rather than as electronic goods,” said Sweta Dash, senior director for research and display at IHS. But because the fashion accessory market is determined by design rather than by simple function, wearable products such as smartwatches must be adaptable to various forms including squares, circles or even ovals.”

Displays used in wearables need three essential elements, Dash noted. These include outdoor visibility, low power consumption and flexibility in form factor and design. New forms of display, such as stretchable panels that are expected to come in the near future, can meet even more demanding designs in wearables, creating possibilities for exotic shapes and forms.

Also of significance in future wearables will be efficient, low-power flexible displays with longer battery lives that enable increased functionality in smaller form factors. Expected to dominate the wearable display market with improved capability and reduced costs is OLED, a self-emissive display technology with no backlight, excellent flexibility, faster response time and great video quality.

Most of the next wave of wearable products will come from smartwatch computing, Dash remarked. This field of wearable technology will be diverse, ranging from gaming, to infotainment, to health monitoring.

On the downside, most current products—including smartwatches and smartglasses from Google and others—are not completely ready for mainstream consumer adoption. The smartwatch models shown at IFA and Apple’s offerings alike are all expensive and lack the kind of affordable pricing to make them universally appealing. Moreover, a clear value proposition is needed before consumers fully accept the design and available applications provided by these new timepieces to replace the trusty traditional watches of old.

Wearable devices will need to strike the correct combination of price, performance, form factor and usability to reach the consumer mainstream market, IHS believes. Until then, actual wearable products like smartwatches may take longer to gain traction before the market can take off. 

These findings can be found in the Displays research service of IHS Technology.

SEMI recently completed its annual silicon shipment forecast for the semiconductor industry. This forecast provides an outlook for the demand in silicon units for the period 2014-–2016. The results show polished and epitaxial silicon shipments totaling 9,410 million square inches in 2014; 9,840 million square inches in 2015; and 10,163 million square inches in 2016 (refer to table below). Total wafer shipments this year are expected to finally exceed the market high set in 2010 and are forecast to continue shipping at record levels in 2015 and 2016.

“Silicon shipment levels are robust this year,” said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI.  “We expect silicon shipment volume to set a record high this year, followed by two consecutive years of growth.”

2014 Silicon Shipment Forecast

Total Electronic Grade Silicon Slices* – Does not Include Non-Polished

(Millions of Square Inches)

 

Actual

Forecast
 

2012

2013

2014F

2015F

2016F
MSI

8,814

8,834

9,410

9,840

10,163
Annual Growth

0%

0%

7%

5%

3%

*Shipments are for semiconductor applications only and do not include solar applications

Silicon wafers are the fundamental building material for semiconductors, which in turn, are vital components of virtually all electronics goods, including computers, telecommunications products, and consumer electronics. The highly-engineered thin round disks are produced in various diameters (from one inch to 12 inches) and serve as the substrate material on which most semiconductor devices or “chips” are fabricated.

All data cited in this release is inclusive of polished silicon wafers, including virgin test wafers and epitaxial silicon wafers shipped by the wafer manufacturers to the end-users. Data do not include non-polished or reclaimed wafers.

The Silicon Manufacturers Group acts as an independent special interest group within the SEMI structure and is open to SEMI members involved in manufacturing polycrystalline silicon, monocrystalline silicon or silicon wafers (e.g., as cut, polished, epi, etc.). The purpose of the group is to facilitate collective efforts on issues related to the silicon industry including the development of market information and statistics about the silicon industry and the semiconductor market.

Flexible LEDs


September 24, 2014

Flexible light-emitting diode (LED) displays and solar cells crafted with inorganic compound semiconductor micro-rods are moving one step closer to reality, thanks to graphene and the work of a team of researchers in Korea.

Currently, most flexible electronics and optoelectronics devices are fabricated using organic materials. But inorganic compound semiconductors such as gallium nitride (GaN) can provide plenty of advantages over organic materials for use in these devices — including superior optical, electrical and mechanical properties.

One major obstacle that has so far prevented the use of inorganic compound semiconductors in these types of applications was the difficulty of growing them on flexible substrates.

In the journal APL Materials, from AIP Publishing, a team of Seoul National University (SNU) researchers led by Professor Gyu-Chul Yi describes their work growing GaN micro-rods on graphene to create transferrable LEDs and enable the fabrication of bendable and stretchable devices.

“GaN microstructures and nanostructures are garnering attention within the research community as light-emitting devices because of their variable-color light emission and high-density integration properties,” explained Yi. “When combined with graphene substrates, these microstructures also show excellent tolerance for mechanical deformation.”

Why choose graphene for substrates? Ultrathin graphene films consist of weakly bonded layers of hexagonally arranged carbon atoms held together by strong covalent bonds. This makes graphene an ideal substrate “because it provides the desired flexibility with excellent mechanical strength — and it’s also chemically and physically stable at temperatures in excess of 1,000°C,” said Yi.

It’s important to note that for the GaN micro-rod growth, the very stable and inactive surface of graphene offers a small number of nucleation sites for GaN growth, which would enhance three-dimensional island growth of GaN micro-rods on graphene.

To create the actual GaN microstructure LEDs on the graphene substrates, the team uses a catalyst-free metal-organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) process they developed back in 2002.

“Among the technique’s key criteria, it’s necessary to maintain high crystallinity, control over doping, formation of heterostructures and quantum structures, and vertically aligned growth onto underlying substrates,” Yi says.

When the team put the bendability and reliability of GaN micro-rod LEDs fabricated on graphene to the test, they found that “the resulting flexible LEDs showed intense electroluminescence (EL) and were reliable — there was no significant degradation in optical performance after 1,000 bending cycles,” noted Kunook Chung, the article’s lead author and a graduate student in SNU’s Physics Department.

This represents a tremendous breakthrough for next-generation electronics and optoelectronics devices — enabling the use of large-scale and low-cost manufacturing processes.

“By taking advantage of larger-sized graphene films, hybrid heterostructures can be used to fabricate various electronics and optoelectronics devices such as flexible and wearable LED displays for commercial use,” said Yi.

By Dr. Chris Moore & Winthrop Baylies, BayTech-Resor LLC

When you say the word sapphire most people think of a brilliant blue gemstone. The members that have formed the Tablet Working Group think of sapphire as a key enabler of future growth for their respective businesses. This article discusses the rationale for forming SEMI’s Tablet Working Group and the action plan moving forward.

At SEMICON West 2014 a presentation [1] to the HBLED technical committee summarized the information available on the expected impact of sapphire on both the Tablet and Smartphone market. It was decided to form a small working group of material suppliers and other interested parties to investigate this area. The mandate of the Tablet Working Group is to determine the needs for standards as they would apply to the eclectic group of manufacturers and service companies that form SEMI. During this discussion it was decided that the group should include not only the use of sapphire in these devices but glass as well. This article will focus on why sapphire and why this effort is starting now.

To put this in perspective the Tablet Working Group is interested in the rectangular pieces of sapphire or glass used as either the cover material (camera lens cover/TP cover) or basic screen of touch devices for tablets and smartphones. Figure 1 shows multiple sapphire cover components for mobile device from Chitwing – Silian optoelectronics. Figure 1 shows sapphire components without ink and coating and sapphire components with ink and AR/AF coating.

Figure 1: A sapphire cover/screen for a smart phone and camera lens cover (courtesy of Mike Feng (mingming.feng@silianopto.com) Chitwing - Silian) This figure shows sapphire components without ink and coating and sapphire components with ink and AR/AF coating.

Figure 1: A sapphire cover/screen for a smart phone and camera lens cover (courtesy of Mike Feng ([email protected]) Chitwing – Silian) This figure shows sapphire components without ink and coating and sapphire components with ink and AR/AF coating.group_photo_2

The Tablet Working Group’s interest encompasses the whole supply chain from the initial starting materials though the growth of boules (which may be rectangular) or sheets, shaping of the boule/sheet, slicing, dimensioning and polishing of the surfaces, applying the necessary anti-reflection (AR) or oleo phobic  (Anti-fingerprint , AF) coating which creates the screen or cover glass. Figure 2 contains a more detailed illustration of this supply chain.

Figure 2: A basic illustration of the tablet/smart phone sapphire supply chain.

Figure 2: A basic illustration of the tablet/smart phone sapphire supply chain.

The reasons for looking at this area now are clear. As you may (may not) know there has been considerable interest and a number of articles [2,3] published on the large sapphire growth facility purported to be related to Apple in Mesa Arizona. Depending on the analyst it is believed that the original facility (there is talk of an expansion) contains 2500 furnaces. These boules are shipped overseas to be sliced, dimensioned and polished. The analysts expect that this material will be used in the next generation of iPhone. This is definitely a large investment in the future and represents a significant jump in the predicted use of sapphire material over the next few years.

Given the cost of production (which is expected to be higher than for the equivalent glass unit [4]) the question becomes: why use sapphire in a mainline consumer product? The first answer is hardness and mechanical strength. Sapphire has been used for many years in higher-end watch products because it resists scratching and is extremely durable. Videos on the net show sheets of sapphire being rubbed by concrete blocks [5] with no effect. As part of the mechanical strength it is also predicted that sapphire units will be thinner than their glass equivalents enabling even thinner device designs.

The second reason is more obscure and yet in many ways more important than the first and is a result of sapphire’s optical and electrical properties. It has been reported that touch / camera lens cover screens and sensors made from sapphire are more durable and reliable in its function. Since all of the devices discussed here are by their nature touch screen-driven this becomes a significant factor in final device performance.

With this background we can start explaining why the interest by some SEMI members to examine this manufacturing area. SEMI itself is a collaborative of material suppliers, production equipment manufacturers, metrology system makers, automation suppliers, device producers and service support companies. Given the level of investment predicted for sapphire in the Tablet/Smart phone area one can see that all of these areas will be affected. At least one furnace manufacturer has pinned a large portion of their company’s future on the sapphire industry and it is expected that others will follow. Thus the equipment producers are already moving down this path with significant investment in both equipment and process development. As usual at this stage of development in a new market segment there are very few standards that exist for both the material and its testing. More important, since there is no standard guidance, the end user has less information on how to define sapphire product specification. This non-standard fabrication from material to final product would cost more than standard process.

The Apple business model for sapphire production is highly vertically oriented. However, it is expected that many of the other suppliers of Tablets and Smart phones will contract out the growth and manufacturing of their cover/screen needs resulting in a significant growth market. Although some analysts predict the eventual displacement of glass from this area in all but the lowest-end tablet and smart phone products, many still look at the economic factors which favor glass. However, it is clear that the economics of sapphire screens will be greatly affected by the scale of production now being envisioned.

Thus we have a potentially large sapphire market which is currently in its early growth stage. SEMI and its Standards groups have effectively participated many times in markets of this type including flat panel displays, photo-voltaic devices, and the emerging work of the HBLED committee.

One of the questions asked is why this work would be under the auspices of the HBLED Technical Committee. The original presentation [1] was discussed as part of the HBLED Substrate Taskforce which is the group responsible for generating the first standards [6] for the sapphire wafers used in the HBLED manufacturing process. Since the group has an interest in sapphire the initial thoughts were that this area could be looked at as developing standards for “substrates” which are now rectangular as opposed to round.

As the presentation was discussed in the technical committee meeting it was clear that the definition of the “substrate” was only part of the potential work to be done. Thus it was decided to form a working group to look at the potential for standards work in the Tablet/Smart phone area. It was also clear that SEMI expertise in materials, automation and metrology standards filled a niche not being addressed by the IEC standards group. At no point did any of the volunteers present want to take on work that was already being done or outside the normal area SEMI would cover. The discussion also highlighted work other than standards which may be of benefit for SEMI but this is beyond the scope of the working group.

The Tablet Working Group will hold its first phone conference in September. Current working group members include material suppliers like Silian ( a pioneer in sapphire) and Corning, metrology suppliers and other interested parties. The first face to face meeting will be at the fall Standards meeting in San Jose. If you have interest in joining the group please contact Michael Tran of SEMI staff or Chris Moore at [email protected]  or Win Baylies at  Win.Baylies @ BayTech-Resor.com.

[1] Tablet Substrates SEMI Standards Presentation https://sites.google.com/a/semi.org/hbled/hb-led-wafer-tf/july-10-2014

[2] Analyst article on Apple/Mesa AZ http://seekingalpha.com/article/2167493-gt-advanceds-sapphire-operations-in-arizona-are-likely-fully-ramped-and-ready-to-deliver-the-goods-to-apple?isDirectRoadblock=false&app=1&uprof=45

[3] Analyst article on Sapphire Composite Cover Screens for Mobile Devices and Point-of-Sale Scanners  http://seekingalpha.com/article/2235313-gt-advanced-technologies-next-frontier-sapphire-composite-cover-screens-for-mobile-devices-and-point-of-sale-scanners?app=1&uprof=45

[4] Analyst article on Glass Demand for Higher-Generation Glass Substrates will Drive Corning’s Display Volume – http://seekingalpha.com/article/2230553-ignore-the-sapphire-threat-corning-is-on-a-roll

[5] Internet video Aero Gear’s Flight Glass SX Sapphire Crystal vs a Concrete …

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gh17UvUQxwM

[6] SEMI HB-LED standards (www.SEMI.org/standards)

HB-1-0814 Specification for Sapphire Wafers for Use for Manufacturing High-Brightness Light Emitting Diode Devices

HB-2-0613 Specification for 150 mm Open Plastic and Metal Wafer Cassettes Intended for Use for Manufacturing HB-LED Devices

HB-3 -1113 Mechanical Interface for 150 mm HB-LED Load Port

HB-4-0913 Specification of Communication Interfaces for High Brightness LED Manufacturing Equipment (HB-LED ECI)

 

The long wait is finally over. From a sapphire industry standpoint, Apple killed the suspense within the first 10 minutes by announcing that its new 4.7” and 5.5” iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 plus will both feature a traditional ion-exchange strengthened glass display cover. Sapphire remains in the camera lens cover and the touch ID sensor, features that were already present on the iPhone5 S.

Yole Développement believes that technical and manufacturing issues at various levels of the supply chain have prevented Apple from using sapphire as the display cover in this year iteration of its iPhone. An important feature of the design of the new iPhone is that the case doesn’t wrap around the display cover. To protect the edges and, more specifically the corners, the part features a complex shape with smooth curves. This design resulted in fairly low finishing yields with sapphire which drove the cost to above $40 per part.

Apple focused the show on the long anticipated smart watch, announced in three customizable versions named “Apple Watch”, “Apple Watch Sport” and “Apple Watch Edition”. Both the “Watch” and “Edition” versions feature a sapphire display cover on the front. On the back, a zirconia ceramic cover with four sapphire lenses protects a heart rate sensor. The “Sport” model however relies on strengthened ion-exchange glass for the display cover and the lenses. The watches come in 2 case sizes of 38 and 42 mm. The sapphire display cover is a 2.5D design with a surface curved toward the edges that blends in smoothly with the watch case.

“We estimate that for the largest model, those covers are manufactured from long sapphire bars of 40 x 34 mm cross section sliced at a pitch of about 1.8 mm,” said Dr Eric Virey, Senior Analyst at Yole Développement. “The 4 lenses on the back appear to have dimensions fairly similar to the one featured on the iPhone camera lens cover,” he adds. The watches however won’t be available until “early 2015.”

illustrations_sapphiremarket_yolepourusinenouvelle_sept2014_page_1

This raises the question of the status of GTAT mega-sapphire plant in Mesa, Arizona. The company might have to wait another year for an opportunity of a design win in the next iPhone. On a positive side, the company and the downstream supply chain might use this additional time to debottleneck their process and possibly take the “Hyperion” lamination technology from advanced R&D to a manufacturing-ready level that could bring a real disruption in the way to use sapphire in displays.

But for now, smart watches won’t provide enough upside to hit initial revenue targets. Apple currently sources sapphire for this product from multiple suppliers, most located in China. “Even if GTAT was supplying a significant fraction of Apple smart watches, we estimate that total revenue derived from this opportunity wouldn’t exceed $45m in 2014, far from the company’s initial revenue guidance for its sapphire business,” said Eric Virey. “If Apple wants to help GTAT, it could also shift more of its other sapphire needs away from its current suppliers. Under those circumstances, it will also be interesting to see if GTAT revises guidance for 2014 and if it receives the last US$139M installment of the $578M of prepayment promised by Apple before the end of the year. If so, this would show that Apple still supports GTAT and the overall project. GTAT was initially expected to start paying back this sum over quarterly installments starting in 2015 and we’ll also see if Apple tries to enforce this,” he commented.

Apple has nevertheless generated a lot of excitement in the sapphire industry since the announcement of its partnership with GTAT. It remains to be seen if, after adopting sapphire for the camera lens cover in 2012 and in the home button in 2013, the Apple Watch announcement is the last stop or just another step of the journey. Various OEMs have recently introduced smartphones featuring sapphire display covers. Kyocera introduced its sapphire Brigadier to the US Market in August and on September 4th, Huawei announced its “P7 Sapphire edition.”

Xiaomi, a fast growing Apple competitor on the Chinese market also plans a limited edition featuring sapphire.

To the exception of Kyocera’s Brigadier which specifically targets the market of rugged smartphone, most of those announcements were intended at testing the market and showing capabilities ahead of a possible Apple announcement. None will come anywhere close to the iPhone in term of volume potential.

This September 9th event might therefore signals the death of sapphire as a display cover in smartphones. But after the tremendous buzz generated by the Apple and GTAT partnership, and following the positive reviews received by the first sapphire smartphones, the lack of a “sapphire iPhone” announcement might instead create a vacuum that Apple competitors will be eager to fill before Apple potentially enters the market.

illustrations_sapphiremarket_yolepourusinenouvelle_sept2014_page_2

“In any case, 2015 will be a pivotal year: the idea of using the material for smartphones display covers will either materialize in multiple devices and transform the industry, or just crash and burn,” Eric Virey concluded.

By Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, Industry Research & Statistics, SEMI (September 8, 2014)

The general consensus for the semiconductor industry is for this year’s positive trend to continue into 2015 as both revenue growth and unit shipment growth are expected to be in the mid- to high- single digit range. SEMI just published the World Fab Forecast report at the end of August, listing major investments for 216 facilities in 2014 and over 200 projects in 2015.  The report predicts growth of 21% for Front End fab equipment spending in 2014 (including new, used, and in-house), for total spending of US$34.9 billion, with current scenarios ranging from 19% to 24%.

Front end fab equipment spending is projected to grow another 20% in 2015 to $42 billion.  According to the SEMI World Fab Forecast data, this means that 2015 spending could mark a historical record high, surpassing the previous peak years of 2007 ($39 billion) and 2011 ($40 billion).

About 90% of all equipment spending is for 300mm fabs, and, interestingly, the report also shows increased fab equipment spending for 200mm facilities, growing by 10% in 2014.  Equipment spending for wafer sizes less than 200mm is also expected to grow by a healthy 12% in 2015 which includes LEDs and MEMS fabs.

According to the World Fab Forecast, the five regions spending the most in 2014 will be Taiwan ($9.7 billion), Americas ($7.8 billion), Korea ($6.8 billion), China ($4.6 billion), and Japan ($1.9 billion). In 2015, the same regions will lead: Taiwan ($12 billion), Korea ($8 billion), Americas ($7.9 billion), China ($5 billion), and Japan ($4.2 billion). Spending in Europe is expected to nearly double to $3.8 billion.

Seven companies are expected to spend $2 billion or more in 2014, representing almost 80% of all fab equipment spending for Front End facilities. A similar pattern will prevail in 2015.

Worldwide installed capacity falls below 3% mark

World_fab_chart

Figure 1 illustrates fab equipment spending since 2003 and the change of installed capacity (excluding Discretes and LEDs).

As Figure 1 illustrates, before the last economic downturn, most equipment spending was for adding new capacity. The World Fab Forecast report shows that in 2010 and 2011, fab equipment spending growth rates increased dramatically, but installed capacity grew by only 7% in both years. Then in 2012 and 2013, growth for installed capacity sagged even further with only 2% and even less growth. Previously, growth rates less than 2% have been observed only during severe economic downturns (2001 and 2009).

Industry segments, such as foundries, see continuous capacity expansion, though other segments show much lower growth — thus pulling down the total global growth rate for installed capacity to below the 3% mark. Although spending on equipment, some leading-edge product segments experience a loss of fab capacity and, looking closer at this phenomenon, two major trends are observed.

First, coming out of the 2009 downturn, SEMI reports that companies are spending much more on upgrading existing fabs.  From 2005-2008, yearly average spending on upgrading technology was about $6 billion compared to the period of 2011-2015 when the yearly average increased to $14 billion for upgrading existing fabs.  Second, leading-edge fabs experience a loss of capacity when transitioning to leading-edge technology. This is largely observed with nodes below 30/28nm with the increasing complexity and process steps resulting in a -8% to -15% reduction in capacity for fabs.

In addition to foundries, the World Fab Forecast report captures capacities across all industry segments as well as System LSI, Analog, Power, MEMS, LED, Memory and Logic/MPUs. The Logic/MPU sector is also expected to see some positive capacity expansion for 2014 and 2015. Flash capacity is expected to increase by 4% in 2014. Although we see more DRAM capacity coming online, DRAM is now slowly coming out of declining territory with -3% in 2014 and reaching close to zero by end of 2015.

More DRAM capacity?

Over the past three to four years, some major players (such as Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix) have switched fabs from DRAM to System LSI or Flash.  In addition, other companies stopped DRAM production of some fabs completely, contributing to declining DRAM capacity. Equipment spending levels for DRAM fabs in 2012 and 2013 were near the $4 billion mark annually and are described by some industry observers as being at “maintenance level.”  Increased spending is expected for DRAM in 2014 and 2015, yet although more capacity is being added — the rates are still negative until the end of 2015.  See Figure 2.

Figure 2: Fab equipment spending is compared to the change rate of capacity for DRAM.

Figure 2: Fab equipment spending is compared to the change rate of capacity for DRAM.

As discussed above, SEMI reports that leading-edge DRAM fabs undergo a double-digit capacity loss when upgraded due to an increase in processing steps and complexity. Since the end of last year, Samsung is in the process of adding additional DRAM capacity with two new lines — Line 16 (ramping up this year) and its new Line 17 (the first new DRAM fab ramped since the last economic downturn). In addition SK Hynix is ramping up its M14 DRAM line in 2016. We expect the impact to overall DRAM capacity expansion to occur in 2015 when this fab begins to ramp up. Even if this fab ramps to about half of its potential, the change rate for installed DRAM capacity would still not be positive by end of next year.

Over $6 billion for Fab construction projects

The SEMI World Fab Forecast also provides detailed data about fab construction projects underway. Construction spending is expected to total $6.7 billion in 2014 and over $5 billion in 2015.  Leading regions in spending for 2014 will be Taiwan, Americas, and Korea.  In 2015, the highest spending will be seen in Europe/Mideast, followed by Taiwan and Japan.

Only five companies show strong spending numbers for new fabs or refurbishing existing fabs. Their combined fab construction spending accounts for 88% of all worldwide fab construction spending for Front End facilities.

In 2014, the SEMI report shows 16 new fab construction projects (six alone for 300mm) and 10 fab construction project in 2015 (four for 300mm). Most construction spending in 2014 is for Foundries ($3.1 billion) followed by Memory ($2.5 billion) and Logic. In 2015, Memory will have most spending with ($2.3 billion) closely followed by Foundries ($2.2 billion).

The report lists currently 1150 facilities with 68 future facilities with various probabilities which have started or will start volume production in 2014 or later. See Figure 3.

Figure 3: Count of known facilities (Volume fabs to R&D) in the World Fab Forecast report with various probabilities which are expected to start production in 2014 to 2020.

Figure 3: Count of known facilities (Volume fabs to R&D) in the World Fab Forecast report with various probabilities which are expected to start production in 2014 to 2020.

As it looks right now, SEMI reports that the outlook is positive for 2014 for the chip-making industry compared to the previous few years and the outlook for 2015 also remains healthy.  However, given the current investment trends for spending at the advanced technology nodes and the decline in construction related activity, we continue to expect worldwide capacity expansion to remain in the low-single digits in the next three to five years.

SEMI World Fab Forecast Report

The SEMI World Fab Forecast uses a bottom-up approach methodology, providing high-level summaries and graphs, and in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab. Additionally, the database provides forecasts for the next 18 months by quarter. These tools are invaluable for understanding how the semiconductor manufacturing will look in 2014 and 2015, and learning more about capex for construction projects, fab equipping, technology levels, and products.

The SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses.  The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment. Also check out the Opto/LED Fab Forecast. Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats

 

BY TOM QUAN, Deputy Director, TSMC

The Prophets of Doom greet every new process node with a chorus of dire warnings about the end of scaling, catastrophic thermal effects, parasitics run amok and . . . you know the rest. The fact that they have been wrong for decades has not diminished their enthusiasm for criticism, and we should expect to hear from them again with the move to 10nm design.

Like any advanced technology transition, 10nm will be challenging, but we need it to happen. Design and process innovation march hand in hand to fuel the remarkable progress of the worldwide electronics industry, clearly demonstrated by the evolution of mobile phones since their introduction (FIGURE 1).

FIGURE 1. The evolution of mobile phones since their introduction.

FIGURE 1. The evolution of mobile phones since their introduction.

Each generation gets harder. There are two different sets of challenges included with a new process node: the process technology issues and the ecosystem issues.

Process technology challenges include:

  • Lithography: continue to scale to 193nm immersion
  • Device: continue to deliver 25-30% speed gain at the same or reduced power
  • Interconnect: address escalating parasitics
  • Production: ramp volume in time to meet end-customer demand
  • Integration of multiple technologies for future systems

Ecosystem challenges include:

  • Quality: optimize design trade-off to best utilize technology
  • Complexity: tackle rising technology and design complexity
  • Schedule: shortened development runway to meet product market window

Adding to these challenges at 10nm is that things get a whole lot more expensive, threatening to upset the traditional benefits of Moore’s Law. We can overcome the technical hurdles but at what cost? At 10nm and below from a process point of view, we can provide PPA improvements but development costs will be high so we need to find the best solutions. Every penny will count at 7nm and 10nm.

FIGURE 2. A new design ecosystem collaboration model is needed due to increasing complexity and shrinking development runways.

FIGURE 2. A new design ecosystem collaboration model is needed due to increasing complexity and shrinking development runways.

Design used to be fairly straightforward for a given technology. The best local optimum was also the best overall optimum: shortest wire length is best; best gate-density equates to the best area scaling; designing on best technology results in the best cost. But these rules no longer apply. For example, sub-10nm issues test conventional wisdom since globalized effects can no longer be resolved by localized approaches. Everything has to be co-optimized; to keep PPA scaling at 10nm and beyond requires tighter integration between process, design, EDA and IP. Increasing complexity and shrinking development runways call for a new design ecosystem collaboration model (FIGURE 2).

Our research and pathfinding teams have been working on disruptive new transistor architectures and materials beyond HKMG and FinFET to enable further energy efficient CMOS scaling. In the future, gate-all-around or narrow wire transistor could be the ultimate device structure. High mobility Ge and III-V channel materials are promising for 0.5V and below operations.

Scaling in the sub-10nm era is more challenging and costly than ever, presenting real opportunities for out-of-box thinking and approaches within the design ecosystem. There is also great promise in wafer-level integration of multiple technologies, paving the way for future systems beyond SoC.

A strong, comprehensive and collaborative ecosystem is the best way to unleash our collective power to turn the designer’s vision into reality.