Tag Archives: letter-dd-top

With consumer television prices falling, global shipments of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TVs grew 133 percent year over year, reaching a new monthly record of 270,000 units in November 2017, during the lead-up to the holiday shopping season. This growth comes as falling prices placed 55-inch 4K OLED into the budget range of a greater number of high-end holiday shoppers, according to IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

Overall global liquid crystal display (LCD) TV shipments in November slightly declined by 1.6 percent month over month, falling to 24.4 million units, as Black Friday demand in the United States declined in 2017 compared to the prior year. Total OLED TV shipments from January through November 2017 surpassed 1.3 million units. Together with December estimates, overall OLED TV shipments are likely to exceed 1.4 million units shipped in 2017.

“In 2017, the landscape for OLED TV brands changed as Sony, Toshiba and other major brands began selling OLED TVs,” said Ken Park, associate director, IHS Markit. “The growing number of available OLED TV choices, especially high-profile Japanese and European brands, has resulted in more competition and pricing promotion activity in the OLED TV market.”

LGE dominated the OLED TV market in 2016, accounting for around 92 percent of all units shipped, while several Chinese brands accounted for most of the remaining shipments. During the weeks surrounding Black Friday 2017, LGE dropped the price of its entry-level B7 series 55-inch and 65-inch 4K OLED TVs by $200, pricing its lowest tier 55B7 model at $1,499.

LGE led overall OLED TV shipment volume in November, with a 31 percent month-over-month increase in shipments. Total year-over-year 55-inch OLED TV shipments rose 123 percent in November, while 65-inch shipments grew 157 percent.

IHSM_Monthly_OLED_TV_Shipments_2017_R

From the Internet of Things to the cloud to artificial intelligence, industries are seeing a new wave of technologies that have the potential to transform and significantly impact the world around us. For its latest white paper, business information provider IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) surveyed its leading technology experts to find out how these technologies are coming together in new and powerful ways to fundamentally change businesses, fuel innovation, disrupt industries and create both threats and opportunities.

The top eight transformative technologies for the global technology market in 2018, as identified in the IHS Markit report, are as follows:

Trend #1: Artificial intelligence (AI)

AI has matured to the point where it is being used as a competitive differentiator in several industries, particularly in the smartphone, automotive and medical markets. Also, optimization for on-device versus cloud-based solutions is becoming an area of focus. Cloud AI has more computing power to analyze data as it utilizes deep learning algorithms, but there are potential issues around privacy, latency and stability. On-device AI, meanwhile, can help offset those dangers to some degree. For instance, smartphone users who deploy the built-in AI of their phones are able to store data locally and thus safeguard their privacy.

Trend #2: Internet of Things (IoT)

The global installed base of IoT devices will rise to 73 billion in 2025, IHS Markit forecasts show. Accelerating IoT growth in 2018 and movement through a four-stage IoT evolution — “Connect, Collect, Compute and Create” — will be the confluence of enhanced connectivity options with edge computing and cloud analytics.

Enhancements in IoT connectivity, such as low-power wireless access (LPWA) will drive growth. Moreover, technologies adjacent to the IoT will become increasingly sophisticated. Machine video and ubiquitous video will empower new types of visual analytics. And AI, the cloud and virtualization will help develop critical insights sourced from data at the so-called “edge” of computing networks. Applying AI techniques to data will drive monetization in the form of cost savings, greater efficiencies and a transition from product- to service-centric business models.

Trend #3: Cloud and virtualization

Cloud services will pave the way for technologically immature companies to utilize machine learning (ML) and AI, radically transforming their usage and understanding of data.

Trend #4: Connectivity

As the first 5G commercial deployments emerge, the story will focus on connectivity. However, the path to full 5G adoption and deployment is complicated, with new opportunities and challenges alike in store for mobile network operators, infrastructure providers, device manufacturers and end users. 5G represents a dramatic expansion of traditional cellular technology use cases beyond mobile voice and broadband, to include a multitude of IoT and mission-critical applications.

Trend #5: Ubiquitous video

The growing use of screens and cameras across multiple consumer- and enterprise-device categories, along with increasingly advanced broadcast, fixed and mobile data networks, is powering an explosion in video consumption, creation, distribution and data traffic. More importantly, video content is increasingly expanding beyond entertainment into industrial applications for medical, education, security and remote controls, as well as digital signage.

Trend #6: Computer vision

The increasing importance of computer vision is directly tied to the mega-trend of digitization that has been playing out in the industrial, enterprise and consumer segments. The proliferation of image sensors, as well as improvements in image processing and analysis, are enabling a broad range of applications and use cases including industrial robots, drone applications, intelligent transportation systems, high-quality surveillance, and medical and automotive.

Trend #7: Robots and drones

The global market for robots and drones will grow to $3.9 billion in 2018. The deeper underpinnings of the story, however, lie in the disruptive potential of robots and drones to transform long-standing business models in manufacturing and industry, impacting critical areas such as logistics, material picking and handling, navigational autonomy and delivery.

Trend #8: Blockchain

Blockchain enables decentralized transactions and is the underlying technology for digital currency such as bitcoin and ether. Blockchain-based services beyond financial services are already being developed and deployed and will continue to ramp in 2018. These include: the use of blockchain to improve advertising measurement and combat ad fraud; blockchain-based systems for distributing music royalty payments; and solutions to better track and manage electronics supply chains.

With BOE, China Star, LG Display and Foxconn expected to build seven new Generation 10.5 factories by 2020, Gen 10 and larger fab flat panel display (FPD) capacity is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 59 percent between 2017 and 2022, according to IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

FPD_capacity_dedicated_to_production_of_large_are_applications

“The majority of all new incremental capacity for producing FPD televisions and other large area applications will be added at Gen 10.5 in the future,” said Charles Annis, senior director at IHS Markit. “The new Gen 10.5 fabs will install 735,000 substrates per month of capacity by the end of 2022. This is enough capacity to produce more than 60 million 65-inch televisions a year.”

Gen 8 and 8.6 fabs that currently account for the bulk of large-area dedicated supply were designed to produce 55- and 58-inch panels respectively, but suffer from inefficiency at bigger sizes. Now with premium televisions rapidly moving to larger sizes as prices fall, FPD makers are racing to build Gen 10.5 factories that are highly optimized for 65- and 75-inch panels.

Gen 10.5 factories, which use enormous 2940 x 3370 mm glass substrates, require high capital outlays to construct. Based on panel makers’ public announcements, total project costs of a Gen 10.5 LCD fab with a monthly capacity of 60,000 substrates will range between $3.4 billion and $6 billion, varying by maker and process to be adopted. To help finance such expensive factories panel makers in most cases are turning to regional governments for support.

Outfitting these fabs is creating unprecedented opportunities for the supply chain that supports them, particularly for equipment makers. According to the Display Supply Demand & Equipment Tracker by IHS Markit, FPD equipment spending will reach a record high of more than $20 billion in 2018, of which new Gen 10.5 factories are a major contributing factor.

As the many new Gen 10.5 factories begin to ramp-up, IHS Markit expects 65-inch and larger panel prices will fall continuously, about 5 percent annually. Subsequently, demand for this high-end segment of the FPD market is forecast to expand 2.5 times to approximately 40 million units in 2022.

“Sixty-five-inch and larger panels are predicted to be one of the fastest growing segments of the FPD market over the next five years. Even so, with so many new Gen 10.5 factories being built, capacity is forecast to surge ahead of demand,” Annis said. “After 2020, smaller than Gen 10 capacity is expected to start to decline as legacy factories are shuttered. The 735,000 substrates per month of Gen 10.5 capacity in the pipeline will not only dramatically increase FPD capacity, but will also shift industry leadership towards to the four companies that are building them.”

Global demand for flat panel displays by area is forecast to grow 7.2 percent to 210 million square meters in 2018 compared to 2017, according to IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO). That will be the biggest annual growth since 2014.

“Growth in demand for flat panel displays next year will be mainly driven by migration to large displays, declining panel prices, and high expectations for a recovery in the global economy,” said Ricky Park, director at IHS Markit.

171120_Flat_Panel_Demand

The rise in demand area is largely attributed to a fall in retail prices of applications along with a drop in panel prices, which is expected to spur consumers’ appetite for various display devices. The sharp fall in panel prices in the second half of 2017 should soon be reflected in the prices of consumer electronics goods in the upcoming peak shopping seasons later this year and in early 2018. The cheaper panel prices are also expected to bolster demand for larger display products. As Gen 10.5 fabs are due to start operation in the first half of 2018, supply of super large TV panels, including 65- and 75-inch products, is projected to grow, according to the Display Long-term Demand Forecast Trackerreport by IHS Markit.

Increasing adoption of bezel-less flexible organic light-emitting diode (OLED) display in smartphones will lead to a growth in the size of overall smartphone displays next year. “Launches of new smartphones with large screens should stimulate consumers’ demand to replace their old phones,” Park said.

The flat panel TV market is also expected to see a significant rise in replacement demand, following the transition into digital broadcasting from analogue signal that started in late 2000s. TV sales in markets where the digital transition was completed in late 2000s grew at 10 to 21 percent in 2009 and 2010, much faster than the compound annual growth rate of 3 percent between 2004 and 2014. “A consumer’s TV replacement cycle is usually about 10 years,” Park said. “A hike in replacement demand for the next few years is expected.”

The global flat panel market will also get a boost from higher demand for new and larger TVs ahead of the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics scheduled in February and the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia in June. “Panel sales in even years when major world sports events were held had grown at a faster rate than in odd years,” Park said.

In addition, the ongoing recovery in the global economy bodes well for the panel demand. Global gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to grow 3.2 percent in 2018, following 3.1 percent in 2017 and 2.5 percent in 2016, according to IHS Markit. In particular, the economic recovery in North America and emerging markets, such as India, Brazil and Russia, is expected to be stronger than the previous year. A rise in non-ferrous metal prices, often a precursor to an economic recovery, is another positive sign.

Unlike the strong gain in demand by area, the growth in the global flat panel market in value is, however, projected to be restrained by the fall in the panel price in the second half of 2017. The panel demand by value is forecast to rise 1 percent to $126 billion in 2018 from 2017, according to IHS Markit.

With flexible active-matrix organic light-emitting diode (AMOLED) panel fabs building at a quicker pace than global demand, supply capacity of flexible AMOLED panels is forecast to be 44 percent higher than global demand in 2018, according to IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

The net area capacity of flexible AMOLED panels is expected to reach 4.4 million square meters in 2018, up 100 percent from 2017. However, demand for flexible AMOLED panels is increasing slower than suppliers’ expectation, at 69.9 percent to 2.4 million square meters in 2018, according to the AMOLED & Flexible Display Intelligence Service by IHS Markit.

171114_flexible_AMOLED_supply_capacity_and_demand_balance_forecast

“Panel makers had expected that flexible AMOLED panels would penetrate into the smartphone market fast,” said Jerry Kang, principal analyst of display research at IHS Markit. “But, this year, most smartphone brands have focused on LCD or rigid AMOLED wide-screens with an 18:9 or higher aspect ratio rather than curved screens using flexible AMOLED panels because the price of flexible AMOLED module is still much higher.”

According to the OLED Display Cost Model by IHS Markit, it costs 1.5 times more to produce flexible OLED panels in the Gen 6 production line than to make rigid OLED panels in the same Gen 6 line.

“The wide-screen smartphone is expected to maintain its competiveness against one with curved edge screen for a while,” Kang said.

Due to the high cost, smartphone brands use the flexible AMOLED panels for their highest-end product segment, making it more difficult for the second-tier flexible AMOLED panel suppliers to meet the product qualification. “This may result in seriously low fab utilization at the second-tier panel suppliers,” Kang said.

The AMOLED & Flexible Display Intelligence Service covers the latest trend and forecast of the AMOLED display industries (including shadow mask and PI substrates), technology and capacity analysis, and panel suppliers’ business strategies by region.

The OLED Display Cost Model provides more detailed cost analysis of OLED panels, including details of boards, arrays, luminescent materials, encapsulants, direct materials such as driver ICs. The report also covers overheads such as occupancy rate, selling, general and depreciation costs. In addition, this report analyzes OLED panels in a wide range of sizes and applications.

Oxide thin-film transistor (TFT) liquid crystal display (LCD) panels are increasingly adopted in mobile PCs due to their feature of high resolution while consuming low power. Global shipments of large oxide TFT LCD panels of 9 inches or larger are expected to grow from 20 million units in 2016 to 55.6 million units in 2017, according to new analysis from IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO). Of those, 51 million units are estimated to be applied to mobile PCs, which include notebook PCs and tablet PCs, up 200 percent from 17 million units in 2016.

110617_large_oxide_tft-lcd_panel_shipments

“Demand for high-resolution panels has increased as media content for mobile PCs became available in higher resolutions,” said David Hsieh, senior director at IHS Markit. “Apple’ and Microsoft’s use of oxide TFT LCD panels for products – iPad, iPad Pro, and Surface, respectively – helped increase the oxide mobile PC panel market and encouraged other PC brands to follow suit.”

Low-temperature polysilicon (LTPS) and oxide TFT LCD solutions are major candidates for displaying high-resolution images, and they are expected to account for more than 19 percent of the entire mobile PC display market in 2017, according to the Large Area Display Market Tracker by IHS Markit.

While LTPS can deliver higher resolution images and consume less power than oxide TFT LCD or a-Si TFT LCD, it has its own limits: its production cost is high and the yield rate is low. In addition, it is less efficient to produce large panels. Albeit not as high resolution as LTPS, oxide TFT LCD panels still display high-resolution images better than the a-Si solution, and they are suitable to produce large panels at lower production cost than LTPS.

LG Display and Sharp have expanded their oxide mobile PC panel shipments aggressively by 180 percent and 370 percent, respectively. CEC Panda in China is estimated to increase its shipments from about 600,000 units in 2016 to 4.2 million in 2017. As some oxide panel suppliers are reducing their focus on the mobile PC display business, display makers in China and Taiwan, such as BOE and Innolux, are expected to produce more oxide panels in future, IHS Markit said.

 

A major decrease in manufacturing cost gap between organic light-emitting diode (OLED) display and liquid crystal display (LCD) panel is expected to support the expansion of OLED TVs, according to new analysis from IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

The OLED Display Cost Model analysis estimates that the total manufacturing cost of a 55-inch OLED ultra-high definition (UHD) TV panel — at the larger end for OLED TVs — stood at $582 per unit in the second quarter of 2017, a 55 percent drop from when it was first introduced in the first quarter of 2015. The cost is expected to decline further to $242 by the first quarter of 2021, IHS Markit said.

The manufacturing cost of a 55-inch OLED UHD TV panel has narrowed to 2.5 times that of an LCD TV panel with the same specifications, compared to 4.3 times back in the first quarter of 2015.

55-inch_UHD_TV_panel_manufacturing_cost_v2

“Historically, a new technology takes off when the cost gap between a dominant technology and a new technology gets narrower,” said Jimmy Kim, principal analyst for display materials at IHS Markit. “The narrower gap in the manufacturing cost between the OLED and LCD panel will help the expansion of OLED TVs.”

However, it is not just the material that determines the cost gap. In fact, when the 55-inch UHD OLED TV panel costs were 2.5 times more than LCD TV panel, the gap in the material costs was just 1.7 times. Factors other than direct material costs, such as production yield, utilization rate, depreciation expenses and substrate size, do actually matter, IHS Markit said.

The total manufacturing cost difference will be reduced to 1.8 times from the current 2.5 times, when the yield is increased to a level similar to that of LCD panels. “However, due to the depreciation cost of OLED, there are limitations in cost reduction from just improving yield,” Kim said. “When the depreciation is completed, a 31 percent reduction in cost can be expected from now.”

Display shipments for notebook PCs are forecast to increase by 5 percent in 2017 to 177 million units compared to the previous year, while notebook PC unit shipments are expected to remain flat during the same period. Being worried about slower shipments next year due to higher inventory, panel makers are focusing on expanding high-end displays, such as in-plane switching (IPS) technology and low-power consuming displays.

According to IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO), a world leader in critical information, analytics and solutions, IPS displays with wide-view angle and high color accuracy are expected to make up 37 percent of total notebook PC panel shipments in 2017, up from 27 percent in 2016. The share will continue to grow in 2018 to 42 percent.

“Production of IPS panels could bring economic benefits to panel makers, such as higher price and larger capacity consumption,” said Jason Hsu, senior principal analyst at IHS Markit.

The price of a typical IPS panel is about 30 percent higher than a conventional twisted nematic (TN) panel of the same size, while a premium IPS panel can cost double or higher. Moreover, producing one IPS panel will consume capacity more than 20 percent compared to producing a TN panel since it requires more photo masks, resulting in a longer take-time in the production line.

Lenovo, the largest IPS panel buyer, is estimated to purchase more than 12 million units of IPS panels in 2017. Dell has been focusing on the mid- and hi-end segments, applying more IPS panels to its products than its competitors. HP is also expanding IPS panel adoption, contributing to the IPS panel shipment growth in 2018.

Another feature display makers are focusing on is displays that consume lower power. As slim notebook PCs become the design trend, low-power consumption display is a critical need as the battery capacity is limited due to very compact chassis. With the advanced substrate technology such as oxide and low-temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS), the power consumption of LCD panel can be managed at a lower level.

According to IHS Markit, adoption of oxide and LTPS panels in the notebook PC market is expected to grow from 3 percent in 2016 to 10 percent in 2017 and to 13 percent in 2018. In the past, these advanced panel technologies were mostly used for premium panels like ultra-high definition (UHD)/wide quad HD (WQHD) resolution displays, but the application will expand to full HD resolution displays, driving the market demand.

In 2018, panel suppliers may have more pressure to maintain panel prices as panel oversupply is expected to continue. “But if the display evolution continues, raising the average selling price, panel makers will not necessarily struggle,” Hsu said.

The average selling price of a notebook PC panel is expected to increase to $46.68 in 2017 and to $47.96 in 2018, from $42.15 in 2016. “Although shipments in unit might decline next year, there are still opportunities for panel makers to increase revenues.”

 

notebook display forecast

 

notebook display forecast 2

As organic light-emitting diode (OLED) displays are used in more smartphones and high-end flat panel TVs, panel makers have boosted their investments in new OLED display fab construction. As a result, the global production capacity of AMOLED panels — including both red-green-blue (RGB) OLED and white OLED (WOLED) — is forecast to surge 320 percent from 11.9 million square meters in 2017 to 50.1 million square meters in 2022, according to new analysis from IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

The production capacity of RGB OLED panels for mobile applications will increase from 8.9 million square meters in 2017 to 31.9 million square meters in 2022, while the OLED capacity for TVs, mainly WOLED but including printing OLED, is set to grow from 3.0 million square meters in 2017 to 18.2 million square meters in 2022, says the latest Display Supply Demand & Equipment Tracker by IHS Markit.

The two market leaders — Samsung Display and LG Display — have taken different paths: Samsung is focusing on RGB OLED panels for mobile devices, and LG on WOLED displays for TVs. To cope with the trend of RGB OLED replacing the liquid crystal display (LCD) in smartphones and other mobile devices, especially for the full-screen and flexible feature of OLED panels, LG Display has started to manufacture RGB OLED panels in 2017. Meanwhile, Chinese panel makers, including BOE, ChinaStar, Tianma, Visionox, EverDisplay, Truly and Royole, are all expanding the production capacity of RGB OLED panels, targeting the mobile market.

OLED_panel_production_capacity_outlook

“It takes more than $11.5 billion to build a Gen 6 flexible OLED factory with a capacity of 90,000 substrate sheets per month, and this is a much larger investment required than building a Gen 10.5 TFT LCD fab with the same capacity,” said David Hsieh, senior director at IHS Markit. “The learning curve costs for the mass production of flexible OLED panels are also high. The financial and technological risks associated with the AMOLED panels have hampered Japanese and Taiwanese makers from entering the market aggressively,” Hsieh said. “In other words, the capacity expansion of AMOLED display, whether it is RGB OLED or WOLED, is only apparent in China and South Korea.”

Samsung Display will remain the dominant supplier of the RGB OLED panels for smartphones. Its RGB OLED panel capacity will grow from 7.7 million square meters in 2017 to 16.6 million square meters in 2022, IHS Markit says. Even though many Chinese panel makers are building RGB OLED fabs, each of their production capacity is much smaller than that of Samsung Display. Due to the gap in their production capacities, they will target different customers: Samsung Display will mainly focus on two major customers — Samsung Electronics (the Galaxy) and Apple (the iPhone), while Chinese makers will be targeting at Chinese smartphone makers at a smaller scale. These include Huawei, Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, Meizu, Lenovo and ZTE, and white box makers.

South Korea’s panel makers are estimated to account for 93 percent of the global AMOLED production capacity in 2017, and their share is expected to drop to 71 percent in 2022. Chinese players (BOE, ChinaStar, Tianma, Visionox, EverDisplay and Royole) will account for 26 percent in 2022 from 5 percent in 2017.

“Many interpret the strong expansion of RGB OLED capacity in China as a threat to South Korean makers. It is indeed a threat. However, while South Korean companies have high capacity fabs with high efficiencies, China’s OLED fabs are relatively small and dispersed across multiple regions and companies,” Hsieh said. “Also, while the Chinese makers could expand fabs with government subsidies, the operating performance will completely depend on the panel makers themselves. How long it will take until they could sustain the business, getting over the challenges with learning curve costs, initial low yield rates and capacity utilization, is still an open question.”

 

On October 26, China’s first Gen6 flexible AMOLED line – BOE Chengdu Gen6 flexible AMOLED production line has put into mass production in advance. The production line is built by BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd, a developer in semiconductor display industry as well as an IoT technologies, products and services supplier. The production line’s mass production and products delivery indicate that Chinese enterprises begin to lead the development of the global AMOLED industry in the new display era.

BOE flexible AMOLED display panel

BOE flexible AMOLED display panel

In recent years, Chinese enterprises are accelerating their layouts in new display areas, becoming a crucial base of the global semiconductor display industry. BOE built ChengduGen6 flexible AMOLED production line, which is China’s first full flexible AMOLED line, as well as the world’s second Gen6 flexible AMOLED line that has put into mass production. The line adopts the world’s most advanced evaporation technology and thin film encapsulation technology, making it possible for the display panels to be curved, bendable and foldable.

It is said that BOE Chengdu Gen6 flexible AMOLED production line mainly produces display panels used in mobile terminal products, smart wearable devices and other display products. On the mass production ceremony, BOE delivers its flexible AMOLED display panels to more than ten customers including Huawei, OPPO, vivo, Xiaomi, ZTE and Nubia, enabling more possibilities for future application innovation.

In the flexible AMOLED field, in addition to BOE Chengdu Gen6 flexible AMOLED line that has put into mass production, BOE’s other Gen6 flexible AMOLED line in Mianyang will be put into operation in 2019.

BOE Chief Executive Officer Chen Yanshun said: “BOE has always been providing customers with more innovative, competitive products and solutions. The smooth mass production of Chengdu Gen6 flexible AMOLED line will greatly enhance the company’s comprehensive competitiveness in high-performance mobile phones, mobile displays and other products, so as to meet the market’s growing demands for small and medium-sized high-performance display products, which is of epoch-making significance for accelerating development of Chinese OLED industry and global flexible display industry.”