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Pixelligent Technologies, producer of PixClear, a producer of nanocrystal dispersions for demanding applications in LED lighting, OLED Lighting, and Optical Coatings & Films markets, announced today that it closed $3.4 million in new funding. The funds will be used to support accelerating customer growth throughout the world and to increase its manufacturing capacity to 40+ tons per year starting in 2016.

“Pixelligent continues to realize increased demand for its nanocrystal dispersions, predominantly driven by the leading LED package manufacturers and the leading OLED lighting producers. Pixelligent’s high-index and transparent zirconia nanocrystals are considered the best in the world by numerous experts and are becoming increasingly important in delivering more light from next generation Solid State Lighting as well as additional efficiencies in Display applications,” said Craig Bandes, President & CEO of Pixelligent.

To date, Pixelligent has raised over $26.0M in equity funding and has been awarded more than $12M in U.S. government grant programs.

Pixelligent Technologies is an advanced materials company that is leveraging nanotechnology to deliver the next generation of high index materials for solid-state lighting and optical components and films applications

By Christian G. Dieseldorff, Industry Research & Statistics Group, SEMI

Semiconductor capital expenditures (without fabless and backend) are expected to slow in rate, but continue to grow by 5.8 percent in 2015 (over US$66 billion) and 2.5 percent in 2016 (over $68 billion), according to the May update of the SEMI World Fab Forecast report. A significant part of this capex is fab equipment spending.

Fab equipment spending is forecast to depart from the typical historic trend over the past 15 years of two years of spending growth followed by one year of decline.  Departing from the norm, equipment spending could grow every year for three years in a row: 2014, 2015, and 2016 (see Table 1).

Table 1: Fab Equipment Spending by Wafer Size

Table 1: Fab Equipment Spending by Wafer Size

At the end of May 2015, SEMI published its latest update to the World Fab Forecast report, reporting on more than 200 facilities with equipment spending in 2015, and more than 175 facilities projected to spend in 2016.

The report shows a large increase in spending for DRAM, more than 45 percent in 2015. Also, spending for 3D NAND is expected to increase by more than 60 percent in 2015 and more than 70 percent in 2016. The foundry sector is forecast to show 10 percent higher fab equipment spending in 2015, but may experience a decline in 2016.  Even with this slowdown, the foundry sector is expected to be the second largest in equipment spending, surpassed only by spending in the memory sector.

A weak first quarter of 2015 is dropping spending for the first half of 2015, but a stronger second half of 2015 is expected. Intel and TSMC reduced their capital expenditure plans for 2015, while other companies, especially memory, are expected to increase their spending.

The SEMI data details how this varies by company and fab.  For example, the report predicts increased fab equipment spending in 2015 by TSMC and Samsung. Samsung is the “wild card” on the table, with new fabs in Hwaseong, Line 17 and S3.  The World Fab Forecast report shows how Samsung is likely to ramp these fabs into 2016. In addition, Samsung is currently ramping a large fab in China for 3D NAND (VNAND) production.   Overall, the data show that Samsung is will likely spend a bit more for memory in 2015 and much more in 2016.  After two years of declining spending for System LSI, Samsung is forecast to show an increase in 2015, and especially for 2016.

Figure 1 depicts fab equipment spending by region for 2015.

Figure 1: Fab Equipment Spending in 2015 by Region; SEMI World Fab Forecast Report (May 2015).

Figure 1: Fab Equipment Spending in 2015 by Region; SEMI World Fab Forecast Report (May 2015).

In 2015, fab equipment spending by Taiwan and Korea together are expected to make up over 51 percent of worldwide spending, according to the SEMI report.  In 2011, Taiwan and Korea accounted for just 41 percent, and the highest spending region was the Americas, with 22 percent (now just 16 percent).  China’s fab spending is still dominated by non-Chinese companies such as SK Hynix and Samsung, but the impact of Samsung’s 3D NAND project in Xian is significant. China’s share for fab spending grew from 9 percent in 2011 to a projected 11 percent in 2015; because of Samsung’s fab in Xian, the share will grow to 13 percent in 2016.

Table 2 shows the share of the top two companies drive a region for fab equipment spending:

Table 2: Share of Fab Equipment Spending of Top Two Companies per Region

Table 2: Share of Fab Equipment Spending of Top Two Companies per Region

Over time, fab equipment spending has also shifted by technology node.  See Figure 2, where nodes have been grouped by size:

Figure 2: Fab Equipment Spending by Nodes (Grouped)

Figure 2: Fab Equipment Spending by Nodes (Grouped)

In 2011, most fab equipment spending was for nodes between 25nm to 49nm (accounting for $24 billion) while nodes with 24nm or smaller drove spending less than $7 billion. By 2015, spending flipped, with nodes equal or under 24nm accounting for $27 billion while spending on nodes between 25nm to 49nm dropped to $8 billion.  The SEMI World Fab data also predict more spending on nodes between 38nm to 79nm, due to increases in the 3DNAND sector in 2015 and accelerating in 2016 (not shown in the chart).

When is the next contraction?

As noted above, over the past 15 years the industry has never achieved three consecutive years of positive growth rates for spending.  2016 may be the year which deviates from this historic cycle pattern.  A developing hypothesis is that with more consolidation, fewer players compete for market positions, resulting in a more controlled spending environment with much lower volatility.

Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/MarketInfo/FabDatabase.

Over the past 15 years, strong growth in optoelectronics has been fueled by several different product categories at different times.  Laser transmitters for high-speed optical networks were a major growth driver before the “dot.com” implosion in 2001. Image sensors and lamp devices (primarily light-emitting diodes—LEDs) became star performers in the last decade, and more recently, laser transmitters have re-emerged as a major growth driver in optoelectronics.  IC Insights believes these three products will be key contributors to overall growth of the optoelectronics market through 2019 (Figure 1).

optoelectronics snapshot

 

Through 2019, IC Insights sees these three trends driving optoelectronics market growth:

•    High-brightness LEDs (HB-LEDs) have reached the luminous efficacy of fluorescent lights and are in a position to be a major factor in the $100 billion global lighting industry.  Since the end of the last decade, strong sales of HB-LEDs have gone into backlighting systems for cellphones, tablets, LCD TVs, and computer displays, but this growth has greatly eased with penetration rates reaching nearly 100 percent in these applications.  With production capacity growing, HB-LED suppliers are concentrating on cutting costs and improving the overall quality of light for general illumination products in homes, businesses, buildings, outdoor lighting, and other applications, such as automotive headlamps and digital signs. HB-LED 2014 -2019 CAGR forecast (sales):  9.7 percent.

•    CMOS image sensors have entered into another wave of strong sales growth as digital imaging moves into new automotive-safety systems, medical equipment, video security and surveillance networks, human-recognition user interfaces, wearable body cameras, and other embedded applications beyond camera phones and stand-alone digital cameras. CMOS image sensor 2014-2019 CAGR forecast (sales):  11.1 percent.

•    Fiber-optic laser transmitters will continue to be the fastest growing optoelectronics product category as network operators struggle to keep up with huge increases in Internet traffic, video streaming and downloads, cloud-computing services, and the potential for billions of new connections in the Internet of Things (IoT).  Laser transmitter 2014-2019 CAGR forecast (sales):  15.3 percent.

SEMI today announced the update of its World Fab Forecast report for 2015 and 2016. The report projects that semiconductor fab equipment spending (new, used, for Front End facilities) is expected to increase 11 percent (US$38.7 billion) in 2015 and another 5 percent ($40.7 billion) in 2016. Since February 2015, SEMI has made 282 updates to its detailed World Fab Forecast report, which tracks fab spending for construction and equipment, as well as capacity changes, and technology nodes transitions and product type changes by fab.   

Capital expenditure (capex without fabless and backend) by device manufacturers is forecast to increase almost 6 percent in 2015 and over 2 percent in 2016. Fab equipment spending is forecast to depart from the typical historic trend over the past 15 years of two years of spending growth followed by one of decline.  For the first time, equipment spending could grow every year for three years in a row: 2014, 2015, and 2016.

The SEMI World Fab Forecast Report, a “bottoms up” company-by-company and fab-by-fab approach, lists over 48 facilities making DRAM products and 32 facilities making NAND products. The report also monitors 36 construction projects with investments totaling over $5.6 billion in 2015 and 20 construction projects with investments of over $7.5 billion in 2016.  

According to the SEMI report, fab equipment spending in 2015 will be driven by Memory and Foundry ─ with Taiwan and Korea projected to become the largest markets for fab equipment at $10.6 billion and $9.3 billion, respectively. The market in the Americas is forecast to reach $6.1 billion, with Japan and China following at $4.5 and $4.4 billion, respectively. Europe/Mideast is predicted to invest $2.6 billion. The fab equipment market in South East Asia is expected to total $1.2 billion in 2015.

Learn more about the SEMI World Fab Forecast and plan to attend the SEMI/Gartner Market Symposium at SEMICON West 2015 on Monday, July 13 for an update on the semiconductor supply chain market outlook. In addition to presentations from Gartner analysts, Christian Dieseldorff of SEMI will present on “Trends and Outlook for Fabs and Fab Capacity” and Lara Chamness will present on “Semiconductor Wafer Fab Materials Market and Year-to-Date Front-End Equipment Trends.”   

Fab Equipment Spending
(for Front-End Facilities, includes new, used, in-house)

 

2014

(US$B)

2015

(US$B)

Year-over-Year

Americas

7.8

6.1

-22%

China

4.1

4.4

10%

Europe and Mideast

2.2

2.6

18%

Japan

3.8

4.5

17%

Korea

7.4

9.3

27%

SE Asia

1.1

1.2

2%

Taiwan

8.5

10.6

25%

Total

34.9

38.7

11%

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast Reports (May 2015)Totals may not add due to rounding

FUJIFILM Corporation and nano-electronics research institute, imec have demonstrated full-color organic light-emitting diodes (OLED) by using their jointly-developed photoresist technology for organic semiconductors, a technology that enables submicron patterning. This breakthrough result paves the way to producing high-resolution and large organic Electroluminescent (EL) displays and establishing cost-competitive manufacturing methods.

Organic EL displays are increasingly used for televisions, mobile devices including smartphones as well as wearable devices. Since they can be made thin and flexible, while also offering excellent response time and contrast ratio. It is said that today’s products require organic EL displays of high pixel density, i.e. around 200ppi for 4K televisions, 500ppi for full HD mobile devices and even higher density for compact displays for wearable devices. There has been active R&D for organic semiconductors to develop a high-resolution patterning method for organic EL materials to be used in these products.

In 2013, Fujifilm and imec jointly developed photoresist technology for organic semiconductors that enables submicron patterning without damaging the organic semiconductor materials, based on photolithography capable of high-resolution patterning on large substrates. There is no need for additional capital investment since an existing i-line exposure system can be used for the new technology. This is why the technology has attracted wide attention since the development announcement with anticipation of a cost-effective way of manufacturing high-resolution organic semiconductor devices.

In the latest achievement, Fujifilm and imec produced full-color OLEDs with the photoresist technology for organic semiconductors and successfully verified their performance.  Red, green and blue organic EL materials were patterned, each in the subpixel pitch of 20μm, to create full-color OLEDs. An OLED array of 40 x 40 dots at the resolution of 640ppi was realized and illuminated with UV rays to confirm that red, green and blue dots separately emitted light. The emission of red, green and blue lights was also confirmed in a test involving the application of voltage rather than illumination, confirming its correct performance.

These results open new opportunities, such as using the novel photolithography in a multiple patterning process. An example would be creating an OLED array that adds a fourth color to red, green and blue, as well as developing previously-unseen devices such as a new sensors that integrate OLED with the organic photodetector.

This research result is to be presented at the SID Display Week, one of the world’s largest international exhibitions for information displays, held in San Jose, California from May 31 to June 5, 2015.

Since the commencement of joint research in November 2012, Fujifilm and imec have broken through the boundary of conventional technology to contribute to the progress of technology associated with organic semiconductors, e.g., developing the photoresist technology for organic semiconductors that enables the realization of high-resolution submicron patterns.  The two companies will continue to undertake cutting-edge R&D involving semiconductor materials, process technology and system integration, thereby contributing to resolving challenges faced by the organic electronics industry.

CEA-Leti today announced that it has demonstrated a path to fabricating high-density micro-LED arrays for the next generation of wearable and nomadic systems in a process that is scalable to the IC manufacturing process.

The high-brightness, enhanced-vision systems such as head-up and head-mounted displays can improve safety and performance in fields such as aeronautics and automotive, where the displays allow pilots and drivers to receive key navigation data and information in their line of sight. For consumers, smart glasses or nomadic projection devices with augmented reality provide directions, safety updates, advertisements and other information across the viewing field. LED microdisplays are ideally suited for such wearable systems because of their low footprint, low power consumption, high-contrast ratio and ultra-high brightness.

Leti researchers have developed gallium-nitride (GaN) and indium gallium-nitride (InGaN) LED technology for producing high-brightness, emissive microdisplays for these uses, which are expected to grow dramatically in the next three to five years. For example, the global research firm MarketsandMarkets forecasts the market for head-up displays alone to grow from $1.37 billion in 2012 to $8.36 billion in 2020.

“Currently available microdisplays for both head-mounted and compact head-up applications suffer from fundamental technology limitations that prevent the design of very low-weight, compact and low-energy-use products,” said Ludovic Poupinet, head of Leti’s Optics and Photonics Department. “Leti’s technology breakthrough is the first demonstration of a high-brightness, high-density micro-LED array that overcomes these limitations and is scalable to a standard microelectronic large-scale process. This technology provides a low-cost, leading-edge solution to companies that want to target the fast-growth markets for wearable vision systems.”

Announced during Display Week 2015 in San Jose, Calif., Leti’s technology innovation is based on micro-LED arrays that are hybridized on a silicon backplane. Key innovations include epitaxial growth of LED layers on sapphire or other substrates, micro-structuration of LED arrays (10μm pitches or smaller), and 3D heterogeneous integration of such LED arrays on CMOS active-matrices.

These innovations make it possible to produce a brightness of 1 million cd/m² for monochrome devices and 100 kcd/m² for full-color devices with a device size below one inch and 2.5 million pixels. This is a 100- to 1,000-times improvement compared to existing self-emissive microdisplays, with very good power efficiency. The technology also will allow fabrication of very compact products that significantly reduce system-integration constraints.

The high-density micro-LED array process was developed in collaboration with III-V Lab.

By Paula Doe, SEMI

Ever growing volumes of data to be stored and accessed, and advancing process technologies for sophisticated control of deposition and etch in complex stacks of new materials, are creating a window of opportunity for an emerging variety of next-generation non-volatile memory technologies.  While flash memory goes vertical for  higher densities, resistive RAM and spin-transfer magnetic RAM  technologies are moving towards commercial manufacture for  initial applications in niches that demand a different mix of speed,  power and endurance than  flash or SRAM. This article delves into some of the topics that will be addressed at SEMICON West 2015.

Micron: Memory Needs to go Vertical

“Memory is going through a transformation, making it an exciting time to be in the sector, with both emerging opportunities and new challenges,” notes Naga Chandrasekaran, Micron Technology VP of process R&D, who will keynote the next-generation memory program at SEMICON West 2015.  As new applications in the connected world drive demand for increased storage, bandwidth, and smart memory, and as conventional planar memory scaling faces more challenges, memory suppliers across the industry face a transformation, requiring new emerging memory types and a transition from planar to vertical technology.

“Memory needs to go vertical to meet growing demands placed on performance, and that means a new set of process and equipment requirements,” says Chandrasekaran.  Scaling the vertical 3DNAND structures is no longer limited by the lithography, but instead is driven by the capability of the etch, film and characterization processes.  “Metrology and structure/defect characterization is a holdup for the entire sector, which is slowing down the cycle time for development,” he notes. “In addition, there are challenges in materials, structural scaling, equipment technology, and manufacturability on the new roadmap that need to be resolved.”

Everspin Targets ST-RAM on GLOBALFOUNDRIES’ 40nm 300mm Process in a Year

Everspin Technologies’ recently introduced 64Mb spin transfer torque MRAM makes a big jump in density over the company’s earlier 16Mb device, as switching the magnetization by a current of electrons of aligned spin allows much better selectivity than applying a magnetic field.  Manufacturing these spin-transfer devices has traditionally been a challenge, but the company claims it sees a clear roadmap to continue to increase the density. “We’re squeezing a 64Mb device on 90nm silicon out of the quarter-micron process equipment in our fab,” says VP of manufacturing Sanjeev Aggarwal, who will give an update on the technology at SEMICON West.  The company is in the process of transferring the technology to a 40nm process on 300mm wafers at partner GLOBALFOUNDRIES in the next year, to significantly reduce the cell size and spacing.

Aggarwal notes that the layers in the magnetic stack of the spin-transfer torque device (ST RAM) are similar in thickness to those of the earlier magnetic-field switched MRAM devices, which have already shipped some  50 million units. In the 28nm version of the ST-RAM, targeted for a couple of years out, the company plans to switch from an in-plane to a perpendicular structure, which will significantly improve efficiency to cut power consumption by an order of magnitude, though the material stack and processing will remain very similar.

Current deposition tools can provide the layer uniformity required for the many ultrathin layers of these magnetic stacks, and etching technology being developed with a vendor for cleanly removing these non-volatile magnetic material looks promising for 40nm, says Aggarwal. Key is the company’s IP for depositing the tunnel barrier MgO and for stopping the etch uniformly on the tunnel barrier when etching the magnetic stack. “These deposition and etch technologies should extend to 1Gb without much change, though at 16Gb we may need something new,” he adds. “In the next several years we will need help from vendors on better ways to clean up the etch residue, such as by ion milling after RIE, or encapsulating the stack to protect it before the next round of etching.”

Demand for the 64Mb ST-RAM is coming from buffer storage applications, such as high-end enterprise-class solid state drives, where an array of the fast-writing, non-volatile chips holds the data until it can be more permanently filed and stored, and where the high volumes of data require better endurance than flash,  reports Terry Hulett,  Evergreen VP Systems Engineering and GM Storage Solutions.  “As our products increase in density, we expect to serve the same function for bigger storage systems, like a whole rack of solid state drives,” he projects. The company also targets applications for potential power savings for the instant-on persistent memory, such as powering off the display buffer between every refresh cycles for mobile devices, or shutting down the server between operations.

Both Sanjeev Aggarwal (Everspin) and Naga Chandrasekaran (Micron Technology) will update SEMICON West attendees on the state of these emerging memory technologies in a TechXPOT.   In addition, Wei D. Lu (Crossbar), Robert Patti (Tezzaron), and Jim Handy (Objective Analysis) will provide analysis and updates at the July 14 event in San Francisco:

Crossbar Aims for Embedded ReRAM IP Blocks from Foundry by End of Year

ReRAM suppliers, meanwhile, argue that their technology potentially offers better prospects for scaling and lower costs than either flash or spin-based MRAM, although it is still a ways from a commercial volume process.   Crossbar Co-founder and chief scientist Wei Lu, who will also speak at SEMICON West, says the company plans to deliver its ReRAM technology to strategic partners as an IP block for embedded non-volatile memory on logic chips from a leading-edge manufacturing foundry by the end of the year.  The company’s approach stores data by changing the resistance by forming a conductive metallic bridge through a resistive layer of amorphous silicon sandwiched between two electrode layers.

Lu says the devices are being made with two-mask steps on top of the CMOS transistors in a leading foundry.  Key to improving performance to commercial levels and achieving very dense crossbar arrays, he notes, is the addition of a high speed selector device on top of the memory layer.  This layer blocks unwanted sneak currents at low voltages and turns on at the threshold level to enable formation of the conduction bridge. “It’s like a volatile RAM stacked on top of the ReRAM, with nanosecond recovery time,” he explains. “This brings the on/off selectivity up to 108.”

Initial target market is chip makers who want to embed nonvolatile memory directly in the logic fab, for low-power applications like the IoT, with faster speed and higher endurance than flash.  But ultimately the company targets the bigger market of stand-alone enterprise data storage with lower read and write latencies.  “We expect to offer Gigabit-level density at faster speed than NAND flash by around 2017,” claims Lu.  He figures ReRAM and STT RAM will both find their place in the more diverse memory market of the future, with SST RAM offering better endurance, and ReRAM offering higher density and lower cost.

Tezzaron Reports High ReRAM Yields from Repair and Remapping through Multilayer Stack

Tezzaron Semiconductor takes a different approach to ReRAM, storing data by moving oxygen vacancies instead of metal ions across the thin layers to change resistance.  CTO Robert Patti, another SEMICON West speaker, credits the Tezzaron fab’s ALD technology for the tight control of layer uniformity required to build its 16-tiers of ReRAM cells on top of a CMOS transistor tier from another foundry.  Controlling the chemistry of the layering and the reaction is a challenge, but the tiers allow dynamic repair and remapping of defective cells, which Patti claims can enable yields of up to 98%.  “The possibility to repair across the vertical structure makes defect density less of an issue, and lets us deal with materials and processes that are less mature,” he notes.

Patti says his company’s aerospace/military customers, who need a non-volatile option with better endurance than flash memory, will likely move to ReRAM within a couple of years.  Server makers are also starting to look at the potential for adding a new intermediate level of memory, between the solid state disk and the DRAM, which could potentially significantly improve server performance in analyzing big data by holding big chunks of data for faster access at lower power. It might also reduce system-level costs, although it will require changes in operating system architecture to use it effectively, and sophisticated programming algorithms to manage the memory to limit wear.  Demands on the intermediate storage memory should be limited enough that the ReRAM target endurance of 10cycles should be sufficient, though it remains lower than DRAM’s 1015.  If ReRAM endurance reaches 1012 cycles, the nonvolatile, instant-on memory could become a viable replacement for mobile memory, Patti suggests.

Vertical NAND is appealing because it’s more familiar, which has probably delayed interest in ReRAM.  But ReRAM has a smaller cell size so may ultimately be easier to scale and more cost effective,” argues Patti.

Costs Remain the Challenge

“The only thing that ultimately matters in memory is cost,” argues Objective Analysis analyst Jim Handy, another speaker, pointing out that the target aerospace and enterprise storage applications remain small markets, and volumes are not high enough yet to build up deep understanding of the new materials used, so there will be bumps in the road to come.  But as costs come down as MRAM and ReRAM scale to higher densities, he expects them to gradually take over more mainstream applications, starting with the highest cost memories, so first SRAM (especially SRAM with battery backup), then NOR flash, DRAM and finally NAND flash — perhaps by ~2023.  “We have been predicting that 2017 is the earliest we’ll see significant penetration of 3D NAND into the planar NAND market,” he notes. “And now that some suppliers are saying it will be 2017, it makes me think it may be longer.”

On July 14, all of these industry leaders will present at SEMICON West at the emerging memory technologies TechXPOT (www.semiconwest.org/node/13781). Register now and save $100 off registration.

By Douglas G. Sutherland and David W. Price

Author’s Note: This is the sixth in a series of 10 installments that explore fundamental truths about process control—defect inspection and metrology—for the semiconductor industry. Each article in this series introduces one of the 10 fundamental truths and highlights their implications. Within this article we will use the term inspection to imply either defect inspection or a parametric measurement such as film thickness or critical dimension (CD).

In previous installments we discussed capability, sampling, missed excursions, risk management and variability. Although all of these topics involve an element of time, in this paper we will discuss the importance of timeliness in more detail.

The sixth fundamental truth of process control for the semiconductor IC industry is:

Time is the Enemy of Profitability

There are three main phases to semiconductor manufacturing: research and development (R&D), ramp, and high volume manufacturing (HVM). All of them are expensive and time is a critical element in all three phases.

From a cash-flow perspective, R&D is the most difficult phase: the fab is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars every day on man power and capital equipment with no revenue from the newly developed products to offset that expense. In the ramp phase the fab starts to generate some revenue early on, but the yield and volume are still too low to offset the production costs. Furthermore, this revenue doesn’t even begin to offset the cost of R&D. It is usually not until the early stages of HVM that the fab has sufficient wafer starts and sufficient yield to start recovering the costs of the first two phases and begin making a profit. Figure 1 below shows the cumulative cash flow for the entire process.

Figure 1. The cumulative cash-flow as a function of time. In the R&D phase the cash-flow is negative but the slope of the curve turns positive in the ramp phase as revenues begin to build. The total costs do not turn positive until the beginning of high-volume manufacturing.

Figure 1. The cumulative cash-flow as a function of time. In the R&D phase the cash-flow is negative but the slope of the curve turns positive in the ramp phase as revenues begin to build. The total costs do not turn positive until the beginning of high-volume manufacturing.

What makes all of this even more challenging is that all the while, the prices paid for these new devices are falling. The time required from initial design to when the first chips reach the market is a critical parameter in the fab’s profitability. Figure 2 shows the actual decay curve for the average selling price (ASP) of memory chips from inception to maturity.

Figure 2.  Typical price decline curve for memory products in the first year after product introduction.   Similar trends can be seen for other devices types.

Figure 2. Typical price decline curve for memory products in the first year after product introduction. Similar trends can be seen for other devices types.

Consequently, while the fab is bleeding money on R&D, their ability to recoup those expenses is dwindling as the ASP steadily declines. Anything that can shorten the R&D and ramp phases shortens the time-to-market and allows fabs to realize the higher ASP shown on the left hand side of Figure 2.

From Figures 1 and 2 it is clear that even small delays in completing the R&D or ramp phases can make the difference between a fab that is wildly profitable and one that struggles just to break even. Those organizations that are the first to bring the latest technology to market reap the majority of the reward. This gives them a huge head start—in terms of both time and money—in the development of the next technology node and the whole cycle then repeats itself.

Process control is like a window that allows you to see what is happening at various stages of the manufacturing cycle. Without this, the entire exercise from R&D to HVM would be like trying to build a watch while wearing a blindfold. This analogy is not as far-fetched as it may seem. The features of integrated circuits are far too small to be seen and even when inspections are made, they are usually only done on a small percentage of the total wafers produced. For parametric measurements (films, CD and overlay) measurements are performed only on an infinitesimal percentage of the total transistors on each of the selected wafers. For the vast majority of time, the fab manager truly is blind. Parametric measurements and defect inspection are brief moments when ‘the watch maker’ can take off the blindfold, see the fruits of their labor and make whatever corrections may be required.

As manufacturing processes become more complex with multiple patterning, pitch splitting and other advanced patterning techniques, the risk of not yielding in a timely fashion is higher than ever. Having more process control steps early in the R&D and ramp phases increases the number of windows through which you can see how the process is performing. Investing in the highest quality process control tools improves the quality of these windows. A window that distorts the view—an inspection tool with poor capture rate or a parametric tool with poor accuracy—may be worse than no window at all because it wastes time and may provide misleading data. An effective process control strategy, consisting of the right tools, the right recipes and the right sampling all at the right steps, can significantly reduce the R&D and ramp times.

On a per wafer basis, the amount of process control should be highest in the R&D phase when the yield is near zero and there are more problems to catch and correct. Resolving a single rate-limiting issue in this phase with two fewer cycles of learning—approximately one month—can pay for a significant portion of the total budget spent on process control.

After R&D, the ramp phase is the next most important stage requiring focused attention with very high sampling rates. It’s imperative that the yield be increased to profitable levels as quickly as possible and you can’t do this while blindfolded.

Finally, in the HVM phase an effective process control strategy minimizes risk by discovering yield limiting problems (excursions) in a timely manner.

It’s all about time, as time is money. 

References:

1)     Process Watch: You Can’t Fix What You Can’t Find, Solid State Technology, July 2014

2)     Process Watch: Sampling Matters, Semiconductor Manufacturing and Design, September 2014

3)     Process Watch: The Most Expensive Defect, Solid State Technology, December 2014

4)     Process Watch: Fab Managers Don’t Like Surprises, Solid State Technology, December 2014

5)     Process Watch: Know Your Enemy, Solid State Technology, March 2015 

About the authors:

Dr. David W. Price is a Senior Director at KLA-Tencor Corp. Dr. Douglas Sutherland is a Principal Scientist at KLA-Tencor Corp. Over the last 10 years, Dr. Price and Dr. Sutherland have worked directly with over 50 semiconductor IC manufacturers to help them optimize their overall inspection strategy to achieve the lowest total cost. This series of articles attempts to summarize some of the universal lessons they have observed through these engagements.

 

By Zvi Or-Bach, President and CEO of MonolithIC 3D Inc.

Scaling is now bifurcating – some scaling on with 28/22nm, while other push below 14nm.

In his famous 1965 paper Cramming more components onto integrated circuits, Moore wrote: “The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year”. Dimensional scaling below 28nm will only increase the ‘component cost’ as we described in Moore’s Law has stopped at 28nm and is detailed in the following tables published recently by IBS.

Fig 1

 

While there is still a strong effort behind dimensional scaling to 14, 10 and 7nm – and possibly even beyond, a new scaling effort is emerging to reduce the ‘component costs’ and increase integration yet still utilize the 28 nm process node. The semiconductor industry is now going through a bifurcation phase.

This new emerging trend of scaling by factors other than dimensional scaling was recognized early-on by Gordon Moore and was detailed in his 1975 famous IEDM paper “Progress in digital integrated electronics.”. In that paper Moore updated the time scaling rate to every two years and suggested the following factors are helping to drive scaling forward:

  1.  “Die size” – “larger chip area”
  2. “Dimension” – “higher density” and “finer geometries”
  3. “Device and circuit cleverness”

A fourth factor should have been added to the list above – improvement in manufacturing efficiency, which ensued from the increase in wafer sizes from 4” to 5” and all the way to the 12” of today, and many other manufacturing improvements.

In the past, all of these factors were aggregated into dimensional scaling as old fabs got obsolete and improvements were implemented predominantly in the new emerging node. Nowadays, as dimensional scaling has reached its diminishing returns phase, we can see a very diverse adaption of technology improvments.

In his keynote presentation at the 2014 Synopsys user group meeting, Art De Geus, Synopsys CEO, presented multiple slides to illustrate the value of Synopsys’ newer tools to improve older node design effectiveness. The following is one of them:

Fig 2

AMD’s recent presentation at ISSCC 2015 clearly illustrates this point by showing device improvements while still staying at the same 28 nm process node, see slide below. As could be seen, major improvements in power, yield, and performance are possible over time without changing the technology node. AMD’s President & CEO Dr. Lisa Su presentation in 2015 Semicon China, reiterated AMD’s technology progress within the same 28nm technology node:

Fig 3

Even more significant would be the adoption of a breakthrough technology. A good example is the SRAM technology developed by Zeno Semiconductor, which has recently been validated on a 28nm process. This new SRAM technology replaces the 6T SRAM bit cell with 1T SRAM (true SRAM – no refresh is needed) providing significant reduction of ‘component costs’ as is illustrated in the following two slides.

Fig 4

Fig 5

This new industry trend was nicely articulated by Kelvin Low of Samsung covered in “Samsung Describes Road to 14nm, FinFETs a challenge, FD-SOI an alternative.” Quoting: “Samsung spent several years developing its 14nm technology and debating which process node it would invest in after 28nm. Low expects that 28nm will still be a popular process node for years to come because of its price …The cost per transistor has increased in 14nm FinFETs and will continue to do so, Low said, so an alternative technology such as 28nm SOI is necessary”. TSMC too is now spending on new R&D efforts to improve their 28 nm as was presented in TSMC 2015 Technology Symposium, introducing new 28nm processes, 28HPC+ and 28ULP. 28HPC+ is for high performance, a speed gain of about 15% for the same leakage, or a reduction of 30-50% in leakage for the same speed. The 28ULP (for ultra-low power) process is for IoT applications with a lower operating voltage of 0.7V (versus 0.9V for 28HPC+). And also new standard cell libraries were developed for this process with 9 and 7 track libraries (compared to 12T/9T before).

“Device and circuit cleverness” as a factor will never stop; however, it is made of a series of individual improvements that will not be enough to sustain a long-term scaling path for the industry. An alternative long-term path will be “Die size” – “larger chip area,” which is effectively monolithic 3D, and manufacturing efficiency, which will have an important role in monolithic 3D.

And who is better to call it than Mark Bohr of Intel? In a recent blog piece “Intel predicts Moore’s Law to last another 10 years” Bohr is quoted predicting “that Moore’s Law will not come to an abrupt halt, but will morph and evolve and go in a different direction, such as scaling density by the 3D stacking of components rather than continuing to reduce transistor size.”

And this is also visible in the marketplace by the industry-wide adoption of 3D NAND devices that Samsung started to mass-produce in 2014, and followed with a second generation 32 layer-stack device this year, and forecasting going to ~ 100 layers, as illustrated in their slide:

Fig 6

 

In the recent webcast “Monolithic 3D: The Most Effective Path for Future IC Scaling,” Dr. Maud Vinet of CEA Leti presented their “CoolCube” monolithic 3D technology, which was followed by our own, i.e., MonolithIC 3D, presentation. An important breakthrough presented by us was a monolithic 3D process flow that does not require changes in transistor-formation process and could be easily integrated by any fab at any process node.

Finally, I’d like to quote Mark Bohr again as we reported in our blog “Intel Calls for 3D IC”: “heterogeneous integration enabled by 3D IC is an increasingly important part of scaling” as was presented in ISSCC 2015.

Fig 7

 

This is illustrated nicely by the following figure presented by Qualcomm in their ISPD ‘15 paper titled “3D VLSI: A Scalable Integration Beyond 2D.”

Fig 8

 

In summary, the general promise of Moore’s Law is not going to end any time soon. Yet it is not going to be the simple brute-force x0.7 dimensional scaling that dominated the industry for the last 5 decades. Quoting Mark Bohr again, it “will morph and evolve and go in a different direction, such as scaling density by the 3D stacking of components rather than continuing to reduce transistor size.”

P.S. –

A good conference to learn about these new scaling technologies is the IEEE S3S ‘15, in Sonoma, CA, on October 5th thru 8th, 2015. CEA Leti is scheduled to give an update on their CoolCube program and three leading researchers from Berkeley, Stanford and Taiwan’s NLA Lab will present their work on advanced monolithic 3D integration technologies.

While volumes are expected to more than double between 2015 and 2020, LED phosphor prices have declined dramatically, leading to a flat revenue outlook. Low technology barriers of entrance on the most mature compositions have prompted companies to procure turnkey manufacturing equipment and enter the market. With little to no quality control and R&D expenses, some have achieved low cost comparable to that of the tri-phosphors used in fluorescent lamps. In a bid to capture market shares, they triggered an intense price war. But is the situation so critical for the LED downconverters players?

Indeed the analysis cannot be stopped at this point. And Yole Développement (Yole), the “More than Moore” market research and strategy consulting company, proposes today a deep analysis of the market challenges and technology trends with its LED downconverters technology & market report, entitled “Phosphors & Quantum Dots 2015: LED Downconverters for Lighting & Displays”. Under this report, Yole’s team proposes a comprehensive review of the LED downconverters market and competitive landscape. This analysis presents the requirements for lighting and displays; configurations and dispensing methods; trends in phosphor compositions …

“With major YAG IP expiring from 2017, leading Chinese LED makers will have easier access to overseas markets, and domestic Phosphor suppliers such as Yuji, Grirem, YT Shield, Illuma or Sunfor will expand their markets, further increasing YAG commoditization,” explained Dr. Eric Virey, Senior Analyst, LEDs at Yole. And he adds: “Phosphor makers are therefore shifting their efforts toward higher added value materials such as nitrides, which, while prices have also decreased significantly during the period, have maintained better margins.”

But both emerging and established vendors such as Intematix will face Mitsubishi’s will to enforce its IP and maintain leadership on this segment.

Despite a difficult environment, some companies will strive. As illustrated by very wide price ranges, despite commoditization on the low end, LED phosphors remain a specialty market on the high end. Leading suppliers still commend significant price premiums and will strive to create value to maintain margins. This can be achieved through improved performance and consistency, customization, and innovative products. Solid IP shielding their customers from the risk of a patent lawsuit is also a strong element of differentiation. The LED phosphor market will remains technology and IP driven. While China-based suppliers are winning the price war, they now need to fight the patent war.

Moreover, in its LED downconverters’ technology & market analysis, Yole announces: “Garnets will keep dominating the market in volume but innovation will pay off and new compositions will capture most of the revenue.”

Indeed, YAG remains the best broadband yellow phosphor for generating white light. But its use is restricted by strong IP owned by Nichia. Silicates are the best substitute, although still lagging slightly in term of cost and performance. With critical IP to start expiring from 1997 and prices now significantly lower than any alternative, Yole expects YAG to become the ubiquitous yellow phosphor by the end of the decade while silicate essentially disappear. For green phosphors, LuAG, silicates and the emerging, cost-efficient GaYAG are the best broadband emitters for high CRI lighting. For high color gamut displays, β-SiAlON is favored due to its high stability and narrow band emission.
Over the last 3 years, nitrides prices have decreased 3x to 10x and the composition family has risen to become the dominant red phosphors for high CRI lighting and wide color gamut displays. Suppliers have proliferated despite IP restrictions. But a new material, Mn4+ doped PFS (potassium fluorosilicate) developed by GE and already manufactured by Denka, Nichia and GE could challenge the nitride dominance in display applications thanks to its extremely narrow band and despite its low absorption. Many other phosphor manufacturers such as Intematix are developing PFS and Yole’s team expects the competition to intensify. However, GE holds strong patents and it remains to be seen how much leverage this will provide the conglomerate in controlling this emerging segment.