Tag Archives: letter-leds-top

The 2014 Nobel Prize for physics awarded today to three physicists for their invention of blue light-emitting diodes (LED) led to a significant breakthrough and paved the way for the creation of white light—a cleaner, more energy-efficient and longer-lasting source of illumination that also has generated a multibillion-dollar market and the creation of hundreds of thousands of jobs, according to IHS Technology.

Following the invention of blue LEDs by Isamu Akasaki, Hiroshi Amano and Shuji Nakamura, white light could finally be achieved—either through a combination with previously invented red and green LEDs; or as more commonly seen today, by adding a yellow phosphor layer over the blue LED. Without blue diodes, white light could not be produced.

Since the trailblazing invention of blue LEDs in the early 1990s the LED component market has flourished, reaching an estimated $17.7 billion in 2013, as shown in the attached figure, and supporting more than 250,000 jobs in the industry. The overall market would be even bigger if it included all the LED downstream markets, such as lighting, displays, signage, consumer electronics and even Christmas lights.

2014-10-07_LEDs

William Rhodes, research manager for LEDs and lighting at IHS, said that the invention of Akasaki, Amano and Nakamura was a game-changer.

“Before the invention of blue LEDs, the market was mainly focused on indicator lights in toys, industrial and automotive applications,” Rhodes observed. “Since then the market has evolved with more than 90 percent of all displays sold this year backlit by LEDs, and LEDs will account for 32 percent of all bulb sales and revenue in 2014.”

The LED lighting market is poised for strong growth in the next five to 10 years with energy-hungry technologies being systematically banned across the world. In particular, consumers and business owners alike are increasingly looking for energy-efficient lighting for their homes and offices to replace energy hogs such as incandescent bulbs, which can use as much as six times the amount of electricity compared to LEDs.

All of this would not be possible without the ground-breaking work of this year’s Nobel Prize physics winners Akasaki, Amano and Nakamura, Rhodes said.

Last month, Yole Développement  announced the update of its technology and market analysis, LED Packaging Technology & Market Trends. Under this new report, the research market and strategy consulting company highlights the impact of advanced packaging technologies in the LED industry.

“The combination of cost reduction and advanced packaging technologies such as Flip Chip and Chip Scale Package, is changing the LED industry landscape, especially its supply chain,” Yole announced.  For example, introduction of Chip Scale Package solution clearly reduces the number of manufacturing steps: today, some LED chip manufacturers, with Chip Scale Package technology already supply their products to the LED module makers directly.

LED packaging

Flip Chip technology has step by step attracted attention from the lighting, backlighting and flash markets, becoming one the most important developing items this year. Following the LED TV crisis and with the entry of Chinese players, positioning has been reshuffled in the LED industry. The product quality of Chinese LED manufacturers has increased to a level where they are now real competitors for all players. In such a highly competitive environment, three major challenges lie ahead for the LED industry regarding the General Lighting market: efficacy improvement, cost decrease and color consistency increase.

To answer these challenges, several players have now turned to Flip Chip (FC) LED, as these components present several advantages over traditional horizontal (MESA) and vertical LEDs: they are wire-bonding free, can be driven at higher current, and have a smaller size package (…).

And although the FC LED technology has been launched for quite a long time by Lumileds, it was restricted from “popularization” due to technical / technological barriers (low yield regarding bumping / eutectic process…). Additionally, the financial investment required for packaging equipment, represented a strong barrier in an industry that was still recovering.

At middle and long term, this technology [CSP] could make chip manufacturers supply directly to module manufacturers.

But the technology has gradually attracted attention from the lighting, backlighting and flash markets, becoming one the most important developing items this year.

“Whereas Flip Chip LED represented only 11 percent of overall high power LED packaging in 2013, we expect this component to represent 34 percent by 2020. Flip Chip LED will take market share from vertical LED that will represent 27 percent of overall high power LED packages by 2020,” said Pars Mukish, Senior Market & Technology Analyst, LED, Lighting Technologies, Compound Semiconductors and OLEDs.

In addition to offering an increased “performance / cost” ratio, Flip Chip LEDs are also a key enabling technology for the development of Chip Scale Package (CSP) that could allow for further cost reduction.

CSPs are novel to the LED industry but they are the mainstay of the semiconductor industry. Development of CSPs in the Silicon ICs was driven by miniaturization, improved thermal management, higher reliability, and simply the need to connect to an ever increasing pin-count on an ever shrinking die. Chip Scale packages also enabled a reduction in device parasitic and allowed for ease of integration into Level 2 packaging (e.g.: module packaging for LED). It is therefore a natural evolution for this packaging innovation to proliferate into other industries (such as the LED industry).
Basically, a CSP represents a single chip direct mountable package that is the same size as the chip. Regarding LED devices, CSPs are made of a blue FC LED die on which a phosphor layer is coated (the main application of such package being General Lighting). CSP presents several advantages such as: miniaturized size, better thermal contact to substrate. However, eliminating several process steps of traditional LED packaging, CSPs are also having an impact on the industry structure with some LED chip manufacturers supplying their products directly to LED module manufacturers. At middle and long term, this technology could make chip manufacturers supply directly to module manufacturers.

SEMI recently completed its annual silicon shipment forecast for the semiconductor industry. This forecast provides an outlook for the demand in silicon units for the period 2014-–2016. The results show polished and epitaxial silicon shipments totaling 9,410 million square inches in 2014; 9,840 million square inches in 2015; and 10,163 million square inches in 2016 (refer to table below). Total wafer shipments this year are expected to finally exceed the market high set in 2010 and are forecast to continue shipping at record levels in 2015 and 2016.

“Silicon shipment levels are robust this year,” said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI.  “We expect silicon shipment volume to set a record high this year, followed by two consecutive years of growth.”

2014 Silicon Shipment Forecast

Total Electronic Grade Silicon Slices* – Does not Include Non-Polished

(Millions of Square Inches)

 

Actual

Forecast
 

2012

2013

2014F

2015F

2016F
MSI

8,814

8,834

9,410

9,840

10,163
Annual Growth

0%

0%

7%

5%

3%

*Shipments are for semiconductor applications only and do not include solar applications

Silicon wafers are the fundamental building material for semiconductors, which in turn, are vital components of virtually all electronics goods, including computers, telecommunications products, and consumer electronics. The highly-engineered thin round disks are produced in various diameters (from one inch to 12 inches) and serve as the substrate material on which most semiconductor devices or “chips” are fabricated.

All data cited in this release is inclusive of polished silicon wafers, including virgin test wafers and epitaxial silicon wafers shipped by the wafer manufacturers to the end-users. Data do not include non-polished or reclaimed wafers.

The Silicon Manufacturers Group acts as an independent special interest group within the SEMI structure and is open to SEMI members involved in manufacturing polycrystalline silicon, monocrystalline silicon or silicon wafers (e.g., as cut, polished, epi, etc.). The purpose of the group is to facilitate collective efforts on issues related to the silicon industry including the development of market information and statistics about the silicon industry and the semiconductor market.

Soraa, a developer of GaN on GaN LED technology, announced today that one of its founders, Dr. Shuji Nakamura, has been awarded the 2014 Nobel Prize in Physics. Recognizing that Nakamura’s invention, the blue light emitting diode (LED), represents a critical advancement in LED lighting, the Nobel committee explained the innovation “has enabled bright and energy-saving white light sources.”

“I am very honored to receive the Nobel Prize from The Royal Swedish Academy of Science for my invention of the blue LED,” said Nakamura. “It is very satisfying to see that my dream of LED lighting has become a reality. I hope that energy-efficient LED light bulbs will help reduce energy use and lower the cost of lighting worldwide, and that is why we founded Soraa.”

Shuji Nakamura - SoraaIn 2007, Dr. Shuji Nakamura, along with pioneering professors Dr. Steven DenBaars and Dr. James Speck, came together and made a bet on an LED technology platform completely different than current industry practice, a technology most industry experts at the time considered to be impossible to execute.

“We knew that our GaN on GaN LED technology would be the future of lighting and Soraa has made this a reality,” added Nakamura.

Soraa bet that GaN on GaN LEDs would produce more light per area of LED and be more cost-effective than technology based on other foreign substrates like sapphire or silicon carbide. This strategy ran against every trend in the LED industry. That bet paid off: today, Soraa’s LEDs emit more light per LED material than any other LED; handle more electric current per area than any other LED; and its GaN on GaN crystals are up to a thousand times purer than any other LED crystal.

“Shuji is simply brilliant and well deserving of this honor. Largely as a result of his work, Soraa has been able to push the boundaries of what is possible in high performance LED lighting,” said Jeff Parker, CEO of Soraa. “Soraa’s GaN on GaN LED lamps are now regarded as the best in the world, with quality of light that far surpasses any other LED product.”

By Dr. Chris Moore & Winthrop Baylies, BayTech-Resor LLC

When you say the word sapphire most people think of a brilliant blue gemstone. The members that have formed the Tablet Working Group think of sapphire as a key enabler of future growth for their respective businesses. This article discusses the rationale for forming SEMI’s Tablet Working Group and the action plan moving forward.

At SEMICON West 2014 a presentation [1] to the HBLED technical committee summarized the information available on the expected impact of sapphire on both the Tablet and Smartphone market. It was decided to form a small working group of material suppliers and other interested parties to investigate this area. The mandate of the Tablet Working Group is to determine the needs for standards as they would apply to the eclectic group of manufacturers and service companies that form SEMI. During this discussion it was decided that the group should include not only the use of sapphire in these devices but glass as well. This article will focus on why sapphire and why this effort is starting now.

To put this in perspective the Tablet Working Group is interested in the rectangular pieces of sapphire or glass used as either the cover material (camera lens cover/TP cover) or basic screen of touch devices for tablets and smartphones. Figure 1 shows multiple sapphire cover components for mobile device from Chitwing – Silian optoelectronics. Figure 1 shows sapphire components without ink and coating and sapphire components with ink and AR/AF coating.

Figure 1: A sapphire cover/screen for a smart phone and camera lens cover (courtesy of Mike Feng (mingming.feng@silianopto.com) Chitwing - Silian) This figure shows sapphire components without ink and coating and sapphire components with ink and AR/AF coating.

Figure 1: A sapphire cover/screen for a smart phone and camera lens cover (courtesy of Mike Feng ([email protected]) Chitwing – Silian) This figure shows sapphire components without ink and coating and sapphire components with ink and AR/AF coating.group_photo_2

The Tablet Working Group’s interest encompasses the whole supply chain from the initial starting materials though the growth of boules (which may be rectangular) or sheets, shaping of the boule/sheet, slicing, dimensioning and polishing of the surfaces, applying the necessary anti-reflection (AR) or oleo phobic  (Anti-fingerprint , AF) coating which creates the screen or cover glass. Figure 2 contains a more detailed illustration of this supply chain.

Figure 2: A basic illustration of the tablet/smart phone sapphire supply chain.

Figure 2: A basic illustration of the tablet/smart phone sapphire supply chain.

The reasons for looking at this area now are clear. As you may (may not) know there has been considerable interest and a number of articles [2,3] published on the large sapphire growth facility purported to be related to Apple in Mesa Arizona. Depending on the analyst it is believed that the original facility (there is talk of an expansion) contains 2500 furnaces. These boules are shipped overseas to be sliced, dimensioned and polished. The analysts expect that this material will be used in the next generation of iPhone. This is definitely a large investment in the future and represents a significant jump in the predicted use of sapphire material over the next few years.

Given the cost of production (which is expected to be higher than for the equivalent glass unit [4]) the question becomes: why use sapphire in a mainline consumer product? The first answer is hardness and mechanical strength. Sapphire has been used for many years in higher-end watch products because it resists scratching and is extremely durable. Videos on the net show sheets of sapphire being rubbed by concrete blocks [5] with no effect. As part of the mechanical strength it is also predicted that sapphire units will be thinner than their glass equivalents enabling even thinner device designs.

The second reason is more obscure and yet in many ways more important than the first and is a result of sapphire’s optical and electrical properties. It has been reported that touch / camera lens cover screens and sensors made from sapphire are more durable and reliable in its function. Since all of the devices discussed here are by their nature touch screen-driven this becomes a significant factor in final device performance.

With this background we can start explaining why the interest by some SEMI members to examine this manufacturing area. SEMI itself is a collaborative of material suppliers, production equipment manufacturers, metrology system makers, automation suppliers, device producers and service support companies. Given the level of investment predicted for sapphire in the Tablet/Smart phone area one can see that all of these areas will be affected. At least one furnace manufacturer has pinned a large portion of their company’s future on the sapphire industry and it is expected that others will follow. Thus the equipment producers are already moving down this path with significant investment in both equipment and process development. As usual at this stage of development in a new market segment there are very few standards that exist for both the material and its testing. More important, since there is no standard guidance, the end user has less information on how to define sapphire product specification. This non-standard fabrication from material to final product would cost more than standard process.

The Apple business model for sapphire production is highly vertically oriented. However, it is expected that many of the other suppliers of Tablets and Smart phones will contract out the growth and manufacturing of their cover/screen needs resulting in a significant growth market. Although some analysts predict the eventual displacement of glass from this area in all but the lowest-end tablet and smart phone products, many still look at the economic factors which favor glass. However, it is clear that the economics of sapphire screens will be greatly affected by the scale of production now being envisioned.

Thus we have a potentially large sapphire market which is currently in its early growth stage. SEMI and its Standards groups have effectively participated many times in markets of this type including flat panel displays, photo-voltaic devices, and the emerging work of the HBLED committee.

One of the questions asked is why this work would be under the auspices of the HBLED Technical Committee. The original presentation [1] was discussed as part of the HBLED Substrate Taskforce which is the group responsible for generating the first standards [6] for the sapphire wafers used in the HBLED manufacturing process. Since the group has an interest in sapphire the initial thoughts were that this area could be looked at as developing standards for “substrates” which are now rectangular as opposed to round.

As the presentation was discussed in the technical committee meeting it was clear that the definition of the “substrate” was only part of the potential work to be done. Thus it was decided to form a working group to look at the potential for standards work in the Tablet/Smart phone area. It was also clear that SEMI expertise in materials, automation and metrology standards filled a niche not being addressed by the IEC standards group. At no point did any of the volunteers present want to take on work that was already being done or outside the normal area SEMI would cover. The discussion also highlighted work other than standards which may be of benefit for SEMI but this is beyond the scope of the working group.

The Tablet Working Group will hold its first phone conference in September. Current working group members include material suppliers like Silian ( a pioneer in sapphire) and Corning, metrology suppliers and other interested parties. The first face to face meeting will be at the fall Standards meeting in San Jose. If you have interest in joining the group please contact Michael Tran of SEMI staff or Chris Moore at [email protected]  or Win Baylies at  Win.Baylies @ BayTech-Resor.com.

[1] Tablet Substrates SEMI Standards Presentation https://sites.google.com/a/semi.org/hbled/hb-led-wafer-tf/july-10-2014

[2] Analyst article on Apple/Mesa AZ http://seekingalpha.com/article/2167493-gt-advanceds-sapphire-operations-in-arizona-are-likely-fully-ramped-and-ready-to-deliver-the-goods-to-apple?isDirectRoadblock=false&app=1&uprof=45

[3] Analyst article on Sapphire Composite Cover Screens for Mobile Devices and Point-of-Sale Scanners  http://seekingalpha.com/article/2235313-gt-advanced-technologies-next-frontier-sapphire-composite-cover-screens-for-mobile-devices-and-point-of-sale-scanners?app=1&uprof=45

[4] Analyst article on Glass Demand for Higher-Generation Glass Substrates will Drive Corning’s Display Volume – http://seekingalpha.com/article/2230553-ignore-the-sapphire-threat-corning-is-on-a-roll

[5] Internet video Aero Gear’s Flight Glass SX Sapphire Crystal vs a Concrete …

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gh17UvUQxwM

[6] SEMI HB-LED standards (www.SEMI.org/standards)

HB-1-0814 Specification for Sapphire Wafers for Use for Manufacturing High-Brightness Light Emitting Diode Devices

HB-2-0613 Specification for 150 mm Open Plastic and Metal Wafer Cassettes Intended for Use for Manufacturing HB-LED Devices

HB-3 -1113 Mechanical Interface for 150 mm HB-LED Load Port

HB-4-0913 Specification of Communication Interfaces for High Brightness LED Manufacturing Equipment (HB-LED ECI)

 

Pixelligent Technologies announced today that it has been selected for a Department of Energy (DOE) solid-state-lighting award to support the continued development of its OLED lighting application. The details of the award can be viewed on the DOE SSL website. Pixelligent and its partner OLEDWorks were selected as one of only nine awardees nationwide for this $1.25 million DOE award.

“This is the second OLED lighting award we have received from the DOE in partnership with OLEDWorks, which clearly demonstrates our leadership position in developing the next generation materials required to accelerate the commercialization of OLED lighting,” said Craig Bandes, President & CEO of Pixelligent Technologies.  “We are proud to have been selected by the DOE for this highly competitive grant that, when combined with our internal investments, will provide the resources required to optimize our OLED lighting application,” said Gregory Cooper PhD, Founder & CTO of Pixelligent Technologies.

The goal of this project is to develop a novel internal light extraction design that improves the light extraction efficiency of OLED lighting devices by more than 200%, without negatively impacting the device voltage, efficacy, or angular color dependence.

“This federal grant reflects the type of common sense investments we should be making to help our economy rebound by boosting U.S. manufacturing and high-tech innovation,” said Congressman Ruppersberger of Maryland’s Second District. “The fact that one of Baltimore’s own companies was selected and will be bringing jobs back to the city is icing on the cake. Pixelligent is an impressive and growing company, and I am proud that they have chosen the Second District to call home.”

In the LED packaging world, a wind of change is blowing. A LED TV crisis, and new Chinese players have totally modified the LED industry and its supply chain. Under this context, with a high competitive environment, new challenges have been identified by Yole Développement (Yole) analysts: efficacy improvement, cost decrease. To answer to the LED market needs, companies have today to innovate their technologies and implement new solutions like Flip Chip for LED packaging.

highpowerled_breakdown_yole_sept.2014

“In 2013, LED based on Flip Chip technology represented 11 percent (in volume) of the overall high power LED market; such market share should reach 24 percent (in volume as well) by 2020”, explains Pars Mukish, Senior Market and Technology Analyst, LED, OLED & Compound Semiconductors, at Yole (Source: LED Packaging 2014 report, to be released end of September 2014).

At the end of September, the 4th International LED professional Symposium +Expo (LpS 2014) will take place for the second time. Located in Bregenz, Austria and targeting industrials and researchers involved in LED design and engineering, the symposium is a three-day event including conferences, workshops, networking and exhibition.

At LpS 2014, Yole will present its latest analysis, with a special focus on LED chip manufacturing and packaging. During his presentation, Pars Mukish from Yole, will highlight the recent developments dedicated to LED chip manufacturing and packaging. Yole’s analyst will detail main market trends, emerging technologies and technical challenges including packaging process steps and supply chain.

All these results are part of two technology & market reports, LED Front-End Manufacturing Trends (released in May 2014) and LED Packaging that will be released end of September 2014.

“At Yole, we are daily working with the key players of the LED industry, to understand and analyze recent developments on manufacturing process and packaging solutions. Our objective is to evaluate the impact of the LED penetration rate in the solid state lighting market,” explains Pars Mukish.

LpS 2014 is a 60-lecture program and welcomes 1,300 visitors.

Soraa, a developer of GaN on GaN LED technology, announced today new psychophysical research proving that whiteness and color rendering have a strong effect on the perception of energy-efficient LED lighting. The study was approved by an Institutional Review Board and led by Kevin Houser at Penn State University.

Compared with conventional blue-based LEDs, study participants overwhelmingly preferred the whiteness and color rendering of Soraa’s full visible spectrum lamps with Violet-Emission 3-Phosphor (VP3) technology. Like conventional electric light sources such as incandescent and halogen lamps, Soraa’s lamps emit full visible spectrum light which renders warm, saturated colors—including important colors like reds and bright greens. Furthermore, these lamps excite Optical Brightening Agents (OBAs) in white objects like clothing, paper and plastics, making them look intentionally whiter. However, in their race to create maximally efficient, cheap products, most LED manufacturers skipped parts of the spectrum. This has resulted in blue-LED based lighting products that cannot truly render whiteness or colors.

Uniquely, Soraa’s full visible spectrum lamps with VP3 Natural White are engineered to emit all colors of the rainbow, including violet, which excites OBAs and perfectly renders whites. The research study at Penn State showed that the vast majority of participants preferred objects rendered under Soraa’s full visible spectrum light over standard LED light that lacked the short wavelength range of the spectrum. In fact, whether looking at a white dress shirt or their own smile, 90% of users preferred the whiteness rendering provided by Soraa’s lamps.

As for colors, study participants commented that colors were more saturated, vibrant and attractive under Soraa’s full visible spectrum LED lamps with VP3 Vivid Color (color rendering index (CRI) of 95 and R9 of 95) versus the blue-based LED lamps with a standard CRI of 85 and R9 of 0. The research showed that the company’s VP3 technology rendered colors with high fidelity and no change in saturation; and the colors accurately matched the reference halogen lamp. This was true not only for colored objects, but also for participants’ skin complexions.

“There are those who’ve asked: does color and whiteness rendering really matter?  Well, it does, and we now have the data to prove it,” said Mike Krames, CTO of Soraa. “Because all of our lamps render the entire visible spectrum, white fabrics and paper goods pop, plastics are brilliant and people’s smiles are whiter, and colors are more natural and beautiful.  That’s good news for consumers and retailers, who want and deserve the enormous economic and environmental benefits of LED lighting, but are unwilling to sacrifice the sales benefits of excellent light quality in return.”

By Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, Industry Research & Statistics, SEMI (September 8, 2014)

The general consensus for the semiconductor industry is for this year’s positive trend to continue into 2015 as both revenue growth and unit shipment growth are expected to be in the mid- to high- single digit range. SEMI just published the World Fab Forecast report at the end of August, listing major investments for 216 facilities in 2014 and over 200 projects in 2015.  The report predicts growth of 21% for Front End fab equipment spending in 2014 (including new, used, and in-house), for total spending of US$34.9 billion, with current scenarios ranging from 19% to 24%.

Front end fab equipment spending is projected to grow another 20% in 2015 to $42 billion.  According to the SEMI World Fab Forecast data, this means that 2015 spending could mark a historical record high, surpassing the previous peak years of 2007 ($39 billion) and 2011 ($40 billion).

About 90% of all equipment spending is for 300mm fabs, and, interestingly, the report also shows increased fab equipment spending for 200mm facilities, growing by 10% in 2014.  Equipment spending for wafer sizes less than 200mm is also expected to grow by a healthy 12% in 2015 which includes LEDs and MEMS fabs.

According to the World Fab Forecast, the five regions spending the most in 2014 will be Taiwan ($9.7 billion), Americas ($7.8 billion), Korea ($6.8 billion), China ($4.6 billion), and Japan ($1.9 billion). In 2015, the same regions will lead: Taiwan ($12 billion), Korea ($8 billion), Americas ($7.9 billion), China ($5 billion), and Japan ($4.2 billion). Spending in Europe is expected to nearly double to $3.8 billion.

Seven companies are expected to spend $2 billion or more in 2014, representing almost 80% of all fab equipment spending for Front End facilities. A similar pattern will prevail in 2015.

Worldwide installed capacity falls below 3% mark

World_fab_chart

Figure 1 illustrates fab equipment spending since 2003 and the change of installed capacity (excluding Discretes and LEDs).

As Figure 1 illustrates, before the last economic downturn, most equipment spending was for adding new capacity. The World Fab Forecast report shows that in 2010 and 2011, fab equipment spending growth rates increased dramatically, but installed capacity grew by only 7% in both years. Then in 2012 and 2013, growth for installed capacity sagged even further with only 2% and even less growth. Previously, growth rates less than 2% have been observed only during severe economic downturns (2001 and 2009).

Industry segments, such as foundries, see continuous capacity expansion, though other segments show much lower growth — thus pulling down the total global growth rate for installed capacity to below the 3% mark. Although spending on equipment, some leading-edge product segments experience a loss of fab capacity and, looking closer at this phenomenon, two major trends are observed.

First, coming out of the 2009 downturn, SEMI reports that companies are spending much more on upgrading existing fabs.  From 2005-2008, yearly average spending on upgrading technology was about $6 billion compared to the period of 2011-2015 when the yearly average increased to $14 billion for upgrading existing fabs.  Second, leading-edge fabs experience a loss of capacity when transitioning to leading-edge technology. This is largely observed with nodes below 30/28nm with the increasing complexity and process steps resulting in a -8% to -15% reduction in capacity for fabs.

In addition to foundries, the World Fab Forecast report captures capacities across all industry segments as well as System LSI, Analog, Power, MEMS, LED, Memory and Logic/MPUs. The Logic/MPU sector is also expected to see some positive capacity expansion for 2014 and 2015. Flash capacity is expected to increase by 4% in 2014. Although we see more DRAM capacity coming online, DRAM is now slowly coming out of declining territory with -3% in 2014 and reaching close to zero by end of 2015.

More DRAM capacity?

Over the past three to four years, some major players (such as Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix) have switched fabs from DRAM to System LSI or Flash.  In addition, other companies stopped DRAM production of some fabs completely, contributing to declining DRAM capacity. Equipment spending levels for DRAM fabs in 2012 and 2013 were near the $4 billion mark annually and are described by some industry observers as being at “maintenance level.”  Increased spending is expected for DRAM in 2014 and 2015, yet although more capacity is being added — the rates are still negative until the end of 2015.  See Figure 2.

Figure 2: Fab equipment spending is compared to the change rate of capacity for DRAM.

Figure 2: Fab equipment spending is compared to the change rate of capacity for DRAM.

As discussed above, SEMI reports that leading-edge DRAM fabs undergo a double-digit capacity loss when upgraded due to an increase in processing steps and complexity. Since the end of last year, Samsung is in the process of adding additional DRAM capacity with two new lines — Line 16 (ramping up this year) and its new Line 17 (the first new DRAM fab ramped since the last economic downturn). In addition SK Hynix is ramping up its M14 DRAM line in 2016. We expect the impact to overall DRAM capacity expansion to occur in 2015 when this fab begins to ramp up. Even if this fab ramps to about half of its potential, the change rate for installed DRAM capacity would still not be positive by end of next year.

Over $6 billion for Fab construction projects

The SEMI World Fab Forecast also provides detailed data about fab construction projects underway. Construction spending is expected to total $6.7 billion in 2014 and over $5 billion in 2015.  Leading regions in spending for 2014 will be Taiwan, Americas, and Korea.  In 2015, the highest spending will be seen in Europe/Mideast, followed by Taiwan and Japan.

Only five companies show strong spending numbers for new fabs or refurbishing existing fabs. Their combined fab construction spending accounts for 88% of all worldwide fab construction spending for Front End facilities.

In 2014, the SEMI report shows 16 new fab construction projects (six alone for 300mm) and 10 fab construction project in 2015 (four for 300mm). Most construction spending in 2014 is for Foundries ($3.1 billion) followed by Memory ($2.5 billion) and Logic. In 2015, Memory will have most spending with ($2.3 billion) closely followed by Foundries ($2.2 billion).

The report lists currently 1150 facilities with 68 future facilities with various probabilities which have started or will start volume production in 2014 or later. See Figure 3.

Figure 3: Count of known facilities (Volume fabs to R&D) in the World Fab Forecast report with various probabilities which are expected to start production in 2014 to 2020.

Figure 3: Count of known facilities (Volume fabs to R&D) in the World Fab Forecast report with various probabilities which are expected to start production in 2014 to 2020.

As it looks right now, SEMI reports that the outlook is positive for 2014 for the chip-making industry compared to the previous few years and the outlook for 2015 also remains healthy.  However, given the current investment trends for spending at the advanced technology nodes and the decline in construction related activity, we continue to expect worldwide capacity expansion to remain in the low-single digits in the next three to five years.

SEMI World Fab Forecast Report

The SEMI World Fab Forecast uses a bottom-up approach methodology, providing high-level summaries and graphs, and in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab. Additionally, the database provides forecasts for the next 18 months by quarter. These tools are invaluable for understanding how the semiconductor manufacturing will look in 2014 and 2015, and learning more about capex for construction projects, fab equipping, technology levels, and products.

The SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses.  The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment. Also check out the Opto/LED Fab Forecast. Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats

 

CEA-Leti and LUCIOM, which develops visible-light communication using light-emitting diodes (LEDs), have launched a project to develop high-data-rate LiFi transceivers. With this technology, LUCIOM expects to offer in mid-2015 one of the first high-data-rate bidirectional light-fidelity, or LiFi, products that can work with different LED lighting sources, and on mobile devices.

Visible light communications (VLC) has gained significant momentum in recent years, primarily because of expectations that LEDs will become predominant in the lighting market. As LiFi benefits from this rapid market penetration of LED lighting sources and their reduced cost, it will become more efficient and economical compared to wireless RF communications.

Moreover, because LEDs can be modulated at very high frequencies and their oscillations are invisible to humans, they permit information transmission at very high data rates.

Earlier this year, Leti demonstrated a new prototype for wireless high-data-rate Li-Fi transmission. The technology employs the high-frequency modulation capabilities of LED engines used in commercial lighting. It achieves throughputs of up to 10Mb/s at a range of three meters, suitable for HD video streaming or Internet browsing, using light power of less than 1,000 lumens and with direct or even indirect lighting. This technology will be adapted to meet the needs of LUCIOM’s transceivers.

LUCIOM’s technology allows the convergence of light-emitting diodes with the worldwide proliferation of mobile devices to make any LED lighting source a high-speed data transmitter that is both secure and environmentally friendly.

Based on integrated circuits and transceivers, the technology turns LED light sources into positioning beacons, which transmit signals. This allows smartphones and tablets to become LiFi enabled, thanks to a receiver that is implemented in a 3.5mm audio jack dongle. The compact size of the receiver eases the integration in the device. In addition, the audio remains accessible from the audio interface, even when the LiFi application is launched from a smartphone.

LUCIOM’s technology can be combined with the use of gyro-sensors present in smartphones and tablets to predict movement between two beacons and provide a very accurate position to the user. This way, communication between phones and smart indoor LED lighting can be used inside buildings when GPS technology is no longer effective. The localization application can also be used to provide additional personalized services or information to customers as well as information to the infrastructure manager.

In addition to these indoor-positioning applications, the company is targeting high-data-rate video transfer.The project between Leti and LUCIOM builds on their previous collaboration in which Leti developed an optical over-the-air data link for the company that allows the transmission of true HD video from a lamp to a handheld receiver.

“Our indoor geo-localization could guide shoppers through the maze of large shopping malls to the stores they are seeking, and LED lighting in museums could be used to guide visitors through an enriched tour of the displays and exhibits,” said Michel Germe, CEO of LUCIOM. “Working again with Leti, we will be able to bring new, bidirectional transceivers that enable these applications to market in 2015.”

“LUCIOM was one of the first companies to see that LEDs and LiFi can offer a powerful, secure and highly energy-efficient communications alternative to WiFi,” said Leti CEO Laurent Malier. “With Leti’s first proof of concept developed earlier this year and its expertise in RF communications, we expect data-transmission rates in excess of 100Mb/s with traditional lighting based on LED lamps.”