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Communication with suppliers in the Ukraine and China have continued to verify expected neon shortages occurring toward the end of 2016. Although supply appears stable now, inventories purchased during the second half of 2015 will deplete inventories on the supplier side toward the end of this year.

“Projections of historical Neon growth can no longer be used to predict the future,” said TECHCET’s President/CEO, Lita Shon-Roy. “Even with the recovery of the Neon supply chain, Neon conservation actions, and new sources in China, we predict that Neon demand will grow faster than Neon supply,” she added. Inventory has caused pricing to degrade, however, prices are expected to rise.

The factors affecting the supply side, along with the demand drivers, are covered in the recently updated Critical Materials Report on Neon, and will be featured at the Critical Materials Conference May 5-6 in Hillsboro.

The largest and most rapidly growing Neon demand drivers are Lasik, OLED/FPD (displays) and DUV lithography. However, Neon gas consumed by DUV excimer laser gases is growing at a faster pace and represents more than 90% of world’s Neon consumption.

Semiconductor lithographic use of Neon is increasing more rapidly than expected for several reasons including the delay of EUVL while demand for finer line width patterning is increasing. In addition, new consumer related markets drive increased usage of legacy device processing. Each increase in the number of lithographic steps increases the need for DUV lithography, and drives up the volume demand for Neon. This is true for V-NAND process flows, as well as DRAM and Logic devices dependent on multi-patterning. Next General Lithography reports continue to support that DUV will keep supporting the industry with potential SAOP being used at the 7nm node.

About The Critical Materials Conference

The Critical Materials Conference, scheduled for May 5-6, in Hillsboro, Oregon is an open forum portion of the Critical Materials Council meetings. Registration is open to the public. For more information on the CMC Conference please go to www.cmcfabs.org/seminars/ .

The ongoing trade dispute between China and the United States continues to affect the manufacture of polysilicon used for solar-photovoltaic (PV) modules in both countries, but not equally. A rush to install projects in China before the deadline for feed in tariff (FIT) levels of those projects on June 30, 2016 is the primary reason polysilicon prices are increasing, according to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), a global source of critical information and insight. In fact, before the Chinese New Year in February 2016, polysilicon sold for just $12 per kilogram, on average; however, prices are now expected to rise to $19 per kilogram by April 2016.

“Strong demand for polysilicon prices is triggered by the FIT deadline in China,” said Karl Melkonyan, solar supply-chain analyst for IHS Technology. “Buyers cannot wait any longer to buy polysilicon for solar modules, if they want to them produced and installed before the end of June. It is highly unlikely that polysilicon prices will continue increasing in the second half of the year, but a flat pricing outlook is certainly a possibility, if demand remains as high as previously forecast.”

U.S. polysilicon manufacturers have essentially lost access to China, which is the largest photovoltaic (PV) module-manufacturing base. This situation is causing severe financial distress for many U.S.-based companies, which cannot benefit from the strong polysilicon demand and recent price increase in China. Meanwhile, suppliers in Korea and other Asian countries have greatly benefited from their ability to increase market share in China and other markets. In fact, Korean polysilicon players now account for almost half of all imported polysilicon in China.

“Western manufacturers can no longer sell into China, which is leading to inventory over-supply and even causing some factories to close,” said Jessica Jin, solar supply chain analyst for IHS Technology. “Although they are trying to sell polysilicon at bargain prices, there is low demand for purchasing silicon outside of China, because most wafer factories are located in China.”

Consolidation continues within the global polysilicon industry according to IHS supply-chain analysts. Some important manufacturers have reduced their business scale and only a few players have announced capacity expansion plans in 2016. “Polysilicon inventories have reached critical levels, which is placing many U.S.-based polysilicon companies at risk; however, due to increased demand in China, OCI, Hanwha Chemical and other Korean suppliers have been able to reduce their inventory levels significantly,” Jin said.

North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.26 billion in orders worldwide in February 2016 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.05, according to the February EMDS Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI.  A book-to-bill of 1.05 means that $105 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

SEMI reports that the three-month average of worldwide bookings in February 2016 was $1.26 billion. The bookings figure is 3.7 percent lower than the final January 2016 level of $1.31 billion, and is 3.9 percent lower than the February 2015 order level of $1.31 billion.

The three-month average of worldwide billings in February 2016 was $1.20 billion. The billings figure is 1.3 percent lower than the final January 2016 level of $1.22 billion, and is 5.9 percent lower than the February 2015 billings level of $1.28 billion.

“The book-to-bill ratio has remained at or above parity for three months in a row,” said Denny McGuirk, president and CEO of SEMI. “The data indicate an improved spending trend in the second half of the year, driven by 3D NAND and 10nm investments.”

The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving averages of worldwide bookings and billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Billings
(3-mo. avg)

Bookings
(3-mo. avg)

Book-to-Bill
September 2015

$1,495.0

$1,554.9

1.04
October 2015

$1,358.6

$1,325.6

0.98
November 2015

$1,288.3

$1,236.6

0.96
December 2015

$1,349.9

$1,343.5

1.00
January 2016 (final)

$1,221.2

$1,310.9

1.07
February 2016 (prelim)

$1,204.8

$1,262.4

1.05

Source: SEMI (www.semi.org), March 2016

FUJIFILM Electronic Materials has been recognized as one of eight companies receiving Intel Corporation’s prestigious Supplier Continuous Quality Improvement (SCQI) award for their performance in 2015. FUJIFILM Electronic Materials has demonstrated exceptional performance to goals and extraordinary, commitment across all critical focus areas on which we are measured: quality, cost, availability, technology, customer service, labor and ethics systems and environmental sustainability. This award is Intel’s highest honor for its suppliers, acknowledging truly world-class performance. FUJIFILM Electronic Materials provided formulated chemicals, developers, precursors, slurries and advanced photoresists, deemed essential to Intel’s success.

“FUJIFILM Electronic Materials is delighted to have reached the SCQI award level for the first time, following our ten previous PQS awards,” said Keiji Mihayashi, director, senior vice president and general manager of the Electronic Materials Division, FUJIFILM Corporation. “This past year was an exciting one for us, and we appreciate Intel’s recognition of the continuous progress we have made as a strategic partner, further expanding our engagements in enabling technologies and collaborating on critical projects. We also thank our FMO partners for their guidance and support as we continually strive for excellence in all of the SCQI metrics – cost, quality, technology, availability and sustainability performance.”

“Intel congratulates FUJIFILM Electronic Materials on winning the prestigious SCQI award. This marks a new level of performance across a growing portfolio of products,” said Tim Hendry, vice president and director of fab materials in the Technology and Manufacturing Group at Intel. “Fujifilm’s products play a major role in advancing Intel’s industry leading technology roadmap, and we look forward to continuing our longstanding and fruitful relationship.”

The SCQI award is part of Intel’s Supplier Continuous Quality Improvement program, which encourages Intel’s key suppliers to strive for excellence and continuous improvement. To qualify for SCQI, suppliers must score at least 95 percent on a report card that assesses performance and ability to meet cost, quality, availability, technology, environmental, social and governance goals. Suppliers must also achieve 90 percent or greater on a challenging improvement plan and demonstrate solid quality and business systems.

Front-end fab equipment spending (including new, used, and in-house) is projected to increase 3.7 percent in 2016 (to US$ 37.2 billion) and another 13 percent in 2017 (to $42.1 billion) according to most recent edition of the SEMI World Fab Forecast.  Fab equipment spending for 2015 ended almost flat ($35.9 billion), with a slight decrease of -0.4 percent year-over-year.

The SEMI World Fab Forecast report presents details of fab-related spending through the industry and extends the outlook through the end of 2017.  Fab equipment spending is expected to pick up slowly in the first half of 2016, and accelerate into the second half when momentum starts to build for 2017, with a return to double-digit growth rates (see Figure 1).

Figure 1

Figure 1

The biggest contributors to the growth are foundries, 3D NAND fabs, and companies beginning to equip and prepare for the 10nm ramp-up in 2017. Dedicated foundries continue to represent the largest spending segment. Spending for 2015 dropped slightly from $10.7 billion to $9.8 billion (-8 percent YoY), but is expected to increase by 5 percent in 2016 and almost 10 percent in 2017.

DRAM spending ranks second place after foundries. After a strong 2015, DRAM spending is expected to slow in 2016 (-23 percent) and increase again in 2017 by 10 percent.

In terms of spending growth rates, the big momentum comes from 3D NAND (including 3D XPoint). Spending doubled from about $1.8 billion in 2014 to $3.6 billion in 2015, 101 percent growth. In 2016, it will again rise to more than $5.6 billion (50 percent growth).

The increase in equipment spending is also supported by six companies, which are among the top 10 spenders globally. The six have announced plans to increase their respective capital expenditures in 2016, while the assumption for the largest spender, Samsung, is that capital expenditure will be less than in 2015.

Equipment spending growth for 2017 is also buoyed by new 24 facilities (excluding R&D) which began construction in 2015 or will begin construction this year. These projects are located around the world, including eight planned in China alone.

The industry has recently set records for mergers and acquisitions, and more are expected in 2016.  The combined flat growth for semiconductor equipment spending in 2015 and slow growth in 2016 confirm a more mature industry.  New technologies — new nodes and newer memory devices — will drive the increase in spending currently forecasted for 2017.

Learn more about SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats

The emerging market for silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) power semiconductors is forecast to pass the $1 billion mark in five years, energized by demand from hybrid and electric vehicles, power supplies and photovoltaic (PV) inverters. Worldwide revenue from sales of SiC and GaN power semiconductors is projected to rise to $3.7 billion in 2025, up from just $210 million in 2015, according to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), a global source of critical information and insight. Market revenue is also expected to rise with double digit growth annually for the next decade.

SiC Schottky diodes have been on the market for more than 10 years, with SiC metal-oxide semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFET), junction-gate field-effect transistors (JFET) and bipolar junction transistors (BJT) appearing in recent years, according to the latest information from the latest IHS SiC & GaN Power Semiconductors Report. SiC MOSFETs are proving very popular among manufacturers, with several companies are already offering them, and more are expected to in the coming year. The introduction of 900 volt (V) SiC MOSFETs, priced to compete with silicon SuperJunction MOSFETs, as well as increased competition among suppliers, forced average prices to fall in 2015.

“Declining prices will spur faster adoption of the technology,” said Richard Eden, senior market analyst for power semiconductor discretes and modules at IHS Technology. “In contrast, GaN power transistors and GaN modules have only just recently appeared in the market. GaN is a wide bandgap material offering similar performance benefits to SiC, but with greater cost-reduction potential. This price and performance advantage is possible, because GaN power devices can be grown on silicon substrates that are larger and less expensive than SiC. Although GaN transistors are now entering the market, the development of GaN Schottky diodes has virtually stopped.”

By 2020, GaN-on-silicon (Si) devices are expected to achieve price parity with — and the same superior performance as — silicon MOSFETs and insulated-gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs). When this benchmark is reached, the GaN power market is expected to surpass $600 million in 2025. In contrast, the more established SiC power market — mainly consisting of SiC power modules — will hit $3 billion in the same time period.

By 2025, SiC MOSFETs are forecast to generate revenue exceeding $300 million, almost catching Schottky diodes to become the second best-selling SiC discrete power device type. Meanwhile, SiC JFETs and SiC BJTs are each forecast to generate much less revenue than SiC MOSFETs, despite achieving good reliability, price and performance. “While end users now strongly prefer normally-off SiC MOSFETs, so SiC JFETs and BJTs look likely to remain specialized, niche products,” Eden said; “however, the largest revenues are expected to come from hybrid and full SiC power modules.”

Hybrid SiC power modules, combining Si IGBTs and SIC diodes, are estimated to have generated approximately $38 million in sales in 2015 and full SiC power modules are only two or three years behind in the ramp-up cycle. Each module type is forecast to achieve over $1 billion in revenue by 2025.

The IHS SiC & GaN Power Semiconductors Report is based on more than 50 semiconductor supply chain and potential end-user interviews. It provides detailed global analysis of this fast-moving market and explains growth drivers and likely adoption rates in major application sectors.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $26.9 billion for the month of January 2016, 2.7 percent lower than the previous month’s total of $27.6 billion and 5.8 percent down from the January 2015 total of $28.5 billion. Sales into the Americas were particularly sluggish, decreasing 5.9 percent month-to-month and 16.9 percent year-to-year. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“Global semiconductor sales decreased in January across most regional markets and product categories, largely due to softening demand and lingering macroeconomic headwinds,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Despite these challenges, modest market growth is projected for 2016, following essentially flat sales last year.”

Regionally, sales decreased in most regions: China (-0.4 percent month-to-month/+4.3 percent year-to-year), Europe (-1.7 percent/-7.7 percent), Japan (-3.3 percent/-5.1 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (-2.8 percent/-6.5 percent), and the Americas (-5.9 percent/-16.9 percent).

Sales also decreased across most major semiconductor product categories, with the notable exception of microprocessors, which increased year-to-year by 2.1 percent.

January 2016

Billions

Month-to-Month Sales                               

Market

Last Month

Current Month

% Change

Americas

5.75

5.41

-5.9%

Europe

2.77

2.72

-1.7%

Japan

2.57

2.48

-3.3%

China

8.45

8.41

-0.4%

Asia Pacific/All Other

8.08

7.85

-2.8%

Total

27.62

26.88

-2.7%

Year-to-Year Sales                          

Market

Last Year

Current Month

% Change

Americas

6.51

5.41

-16.9%

Europe

2.95

2.72

-7.7%

Japan

2.62

2.48

-5.1%

China

8.07

8.41

4.3%

Asia Pacific/All Other

8.40

7.85

-6.5%

Total

28.55

26.88

-5.8%

Three-Month-Moving Average Sales

Market

Aug/Sep/Oct

Nov/Dec/Jan

% Change

Americas

6.05

5.41

-10.6%

Europe

2.91

2.72

-6.4%

Japan

2.70

2.48

-7.8%

China

8.58

8.41

-1.9%

Asia Pacific/All Other

8.75

7.85

-10.2%

Total

28.97

26.88

-7.2%

SunEdison Semiconductor Limited today provided additional details of its comprehensive strategy for the procurement of electronic-grade polysilicon, one of the key raw materials used in the production of semiconductor wafers. Over the past several months, the company has been working on several initiatives to improve contingency planning for polysilicon supply and manage the transition to multiple sources of poly. These initiatives include:

  • Building significant polysilicon inventory from the Pasadena facility
  • Negotiating backup supply agreements for polysilicon from additional suppliers at acceptable prices
  • Supporting the early stages of the production ramp at SMP, and starting customer qualifications

Over the last several months, we have successfully de-risked our polysilicon supply chain,” said Shaker Sadasivam, President & CEO. “These improvements will be sufficient to meet all of our polysilicon requirements. I want to thank our R&D, Supply Chain and Operations teams who have worked diligently to accomplish this goal.”

Shipments of organic light-emitting materials used to produce organic light-emitting diode (OLED) displays grew 12 percent year over year in 2015, reaching 26,000 tons. With the rapid growth of white OLED (WOLED) TV display shipments, shipments of organic light-emitting materials are expected to reach 100,000 tons in 2018, according to IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), a global source of critical information and insight. Revenues from organic materials used to produce OLED displays also grew 12 percent year over year, reaching $465 million in 2015. Revenue is expected to amount to $1.8 billion in 2018.

“The market for small and medium OLED displays is stable, and OLED TV shipments are increasing, which is supporting OLED light-emitting materials market growth,” said Kihyun Kim, senior analyst for chemical materials research at IHS Technology.  “Shipments of organic light-emitting materials for WOLED are expected to increase along with WOLED TV shipments, as more manufacturers are planning to adopt the technology. WOLED materials are expected to outstrip fine-metal-mask red-green-blue (FMM RGB) materials in 2017 for the first time.”

Organic light-emitting materials used in the FMM RGB technology, mostly used to produce smartphone displays, dominated the OLED materials market in 2015, with an 82 percent share. WOLED materials, mainly used for TVs, will account for 51 percent of the total OLED materials market in 2017 and 55 percent in 2018, in terms of shipments.

Revenue from WOLED materials, which made up 31 percent of the market in 2015, will account for 55 percent of the total organic light-emitting materials used to produce OLED displays in 2016. The growth in revenue is faster than that in shipments, because WOLED materials are more expensive than FMM RGB materials, because they haven’t yet reached an economy of scale.

OLED_Chemicals_Chart

Transparency Market Research has published a new report titled “Carbon Nanotubes Market – Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2015 – 2023.” According to the report, the global carbon nanotubes market was valued at $1.13 billion USD in 2014 and is anticipated to reach $6.81 billion USD in 2023, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.1% between 2015 and 2023.

Rise in demand for carbon nanotubes (CNT) in composites, electricals & electronics, and energy applications has been driving the carbon nanotubes market. Carbon nanotubes possess high tensile strength, which is up to 20 times higher than steel. These are suitable for usage in lightweight materials as they are five times lighter than steel. Demand for carbon nanotubes is high in aerospace, defense, and electronics industries due to their lightweight feature. Multi-wall carbon nanotubes are the most widely used CNTs across the globe in various applications including polymers, electricals & electronics, energy, and others (medical, chemical, optical devices, etc.). Growth in various application industries, especially in Asia Pacific, is driving the global carbon nanotubes market. However, high cost and processing difficulties are estimated to hamper the market growth in the near future.

Multi-wall carbon nanotubes was the largest product segment, accounting for more than 90% share of the global carbon nanotubes market in 2014. Multi-wall carbon nanotubes consist of multiple layers of graphite/carbon that are superimposed and rolled one over the other to form a cylindrical and tubular structure. These unique cylindrical-structured multi-wall carbon nanotubes exhibit properties such as distinct thermal conductivity (five times higher than copper), electricity conductivity, and high mechanical strength (up to 20 times higher than steel). Another major product segment of the carbon nanotubes market is single-wall carbon nanotubes. Single-wall carbon nanotubes are made up of pure carbon graphite rolled into cylindrical sheets with diameters ranging from 1nm to 1.5nm.

In terms of demand, the polymers segment has been dominating the carbon nanotubes market in the past few years. When utilized in polymeric materials, CNTs enhance mechanical properties of the resulting composites. These CNT-based composites are five times lighter and 20 times stronger than steel. In terms of demand, electricals & electronics accounted for the second-largest share of the carbon nanotubes market in 2014. Penetration of CNTs has increased significantly in applications such as solar cells, semiconductors, transistors, touch sensors, ultra-conductive copper, cathode ray tubes, and electromagnetic devices in the past few years. Other major applications of CNTs include energy and other industrial markets.

In terms of demand, Asia Pacific has been dominating the carbon nanotubes market during the past few years. The region held over 40% share of the global demand for CNTs in 2014. This trend is estimated to continue during the forecast period. Rise in demand for CNTs in composites, energy, electricals & electronics, and other industrial end-users are key factors boosting the carbon nanotubes market in Asia Pacific. North America and Europe are projected to exhibit significant increase in demand for carbon nanotubes due to favorable policies and rising penetration of CNTs in various application industries. Growth of the carbon nanotubes market in Latin America and Middle East & Africa is likely to be moderate during the forecast period.