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BY ELISABETH BRANDL, THOMAS UHRMANN and MARTIN EIBELHUBER, EV Group, St. Florian, Austria

Fan-out packaging is an established technology for many mobile applications. Whereas early semiconductor packages have been single-chip packages, the continuing trend of expanding the wiring surface to support increased functionality has led to more complex packages, stacked packages, systems inpackageaswellashigh-performancepackages. With this development, fan-out technology is bridging a gap between cost-competitive packaging and high performance. For all aforementioned packages, temporary bonding will be needed, either to enable the thinning of wafers to address the need for smaller form factors, to achieve cost savings on mold materials or to serve as a processing platform for redistribution-layer (RDL) first processes.

Temporary bonding requires both a bonding and debonding process. Determining the right debonding technology can be difficult and confusing as every application from fan-out wafer-level packaging (FoWLP) to power devices has its own requirements in terms of process temperature, mechanical stress and thermal budget, to name just a few considerations. In this article, we will focus on laser debonding, where high- temperature compatible materials are available. We will point out for which applications the laser debond characteristics fit well.

To limit the thermal input associated with debonding, UV lasers are utilized for debonding where several materials from different temporary bonding material suppliers are available. To confine the maintenance effort to a minimum, a diode-pumped solid-state (DPSS) laser is the right choice in combination with beam-shaping optics for high process control and minimum heat input.

Screen Shot 2017-07-27 at 9.09.58 AM

Challenges of temporary bonding for FoWLP

FoWLP has gained significant industry interest in part due to carrier, the requirements of the temporary bonding material in terms of chemical and thermal compat- ibility are high. Certain kinds of polyimides comply with this harsh environment and are also suitable for laser debonding.

By just comparing these two processes, the require- ments differ significantly even though both are FoWLP processes. By looking at the wide variety of semiconductor processes for various applications, it becomes clear that no single debonding process solution is compatible with all semiconductor processes, but rather several solutions are necessary. This is the reason why a variety of debonding processes (temporary bonding is characterized by the debonding technology) have been developed and are still in use today.

Comparison of the mainstream debonding technologies

The most common debonding methods are thermal slide-off debonding, mechanical debonding and UV laser debonding. These three methods are all in high- volume manufacturing and differ strongly in their process compatibility.

Thermal slide-off is a method that employs a thermo-plastic material as an adhesive interlayer between the device and carrier wafer. The debonding method uses the reversible thermal behavior of the thermoplastic material, meaning that at elevated temperatures the material experiences a drop in viscosity, which enables debonding to be accomplished by simply sliding the wafers off of each other. The character- istics of thermal slide-off debonding is bonding and debonding at elevated temperatures, which depending on the thermoplastic material being used can range between 130 and 350°C. Temperature stability depends in large part on mechanical stress, which can be observed due to the thermoplastic’s low viscosity at high temperatures [1].

Mechanical debonding is a method that is highly dependent on the surface properties of the wafers involved as well as the adhesion and cohesion of the temporary bonding material. For most material systems, a mechanical release layer is applied to achieve a controlled debonding mechanism. Key characteristics of mechanical debonding include processing at room temperature and a strong dependence on mechanical stress. Since mechanical debonding needs a low adhesion between the temporary bonding material and the wafer for a successful debond process, it can be tricky to use it for FoWLP applications. This is because the high wafer stress associated with FoWLP processing can lead to spontaneous debonding, even during the thinning process, which in turn can result in a drastic drop in yield [2].

Laser debonding is a technology that has been implemented with several different variations. The debond mechanism depends on the type of laser as well as the temporary bonding adhesive or the specific release layer used for the process. Infrared lasers work on the principle of the photo thermal process, where light is absorbed and transferred into heat, which leads to high temperatures within the bond interface. UV laser debonding typically uses the photo chemical process, where light is absorbed and the energy is used for breaking chemical bonds. Breaking the chemical bonds of a polymer results in the production of fragments of the original polymer. These fragments comprise gases, which increase the pressure within the interface to support the debonding process. For FoWLP applications, this method is a good fit due to the high adhesion of the temporary bonding adhesive to the wafers before the debonding process.

Optimized solution for FoWLP applications

UV lasers are advantageous for FoWLP processing due to their limited thermal input through the debonding process. The carrier wafer must be transparent to the UV laser’s wavelength to ensure efficient use of the laser energy and also ensure a higher lifetime of the carrier wafer. Two main types of UV lasers are available (solid-state laser and excimer laser), with each having several different wavelength options. Choosing a laser with a wavelength larger than 300nm is optimal for several reasons. First, commercially available laser debond materials effectively absorb and therefore debond at wavelengths higher than 300nm. Second, it allows a standard glass wafer to be used as the carrier since glass enables high transmission in this wavelength regime.

Solid-state lasers have the advantage of lower maintenance costs because they do not need halogen gas, which must be replaced on a regular basis. For solid-state lasers, the consumables are very low, and depending on the amount of power used by the laser there are examples of lasers used for laser debonding on a 24/7 basis that have required no laser consumables in the first five years of operation. Additionally, a smaller footprint can also be achieved due to a compact optical setup. Solid-state lasers typically have Gaussian beam profiles, pictured in FIGURE 3.

Screen Shot 2017-07-27 at 9.10.14 AM

UV laser debonding is a threshold process, meaning that debonding occurs above a certain value of radiant exposure. In Figure 3, the area with the blue criss-cross lines indicates the radiant exposure, which is used for the debonding process. The energy that is below or above that value (areas in red in the picture) cannot be used for debonding and is typically trans- ferred into heat, which can lead to carbonization and particle creation. Because of the lack of sufficient energy at the edge of the Gaussian laser beam profile, a certain overlap of the pulses is necessary, which is an additional variable that must be optimized in order to achieve successful debonding without carbonization. Additionally, the excess energy in the beam center can cause carbonization. A Gaussian beam profile is not suitable to limit thermal effects during debonding.

Gaussian beam profiles can be transferred into quasi top hat beam profiles by using a proprietary optical setup for beam shaping. By employing this optical setup, a highly reproducible beam for debonding (whereby the beam shape does not change over time) is achieved with constrained thermal input similar to what is seen in the “top hat” beam profile in FIGURE 4. This gives tighter process control, which in combination with the high pulse repetition rate of this laser type and the ability to scan across the surface of a fixed wafer leads to a well-controlled, high-throughput debonding process. The scanning process is pictured in FIGURE 5 where — in contrast to an excimer laser — the wafer is fixed on a static stage and the laser spot is controlled by a galvo scanner over the wafer. leads to a well-controlled, high-throughput debonding process.

Screen Shot 2017-07-27 at 9.10.24 AM

Screen Shot 2017-07-27 at 9.10.34 AM Screen Shot 2017-07-27 at 9.10.42 AMAs shown in FIGURE 6, a test wafer is used to determine the optimum radiant exposure for debonding. Even with a top hat beam profile, it is important to use a radiant exposure value close to the debonding threshold to minimize heat effects [3]. Small overlaps are necessary nonetheless because the adhesion between the temporary bonding material and the wafers is very high.

Screen Shot 2017-07-27 at 9.10.49 AM

Temporary bonding for future FoWLP

Ultrathin and stacked fan-out packages, also called Package on package (PoP), are already on several industry roadmaps due to their ability to enable higher device densities. However, the need for reconstituted wafers to become even thinner for PoP versus current FoWLP will give rise to more challenges for temporary bonding. For example, the bow of the temporary bonded wafer stack consisting of a molded wafer and a carrier wafer must be minimized to ensure uniform thinning. The maximum total thickness variation (TTV) will also become tighter depending on the final thickness. As for every 3D application, questions regarding interconnects, such as choosing via first or via last, also arises for PoP, where several processes are also available and where no standard process exists that is employed by all fan-out packaging houses.

Summary

UV laser debonding is a suitable method for both chip- first and chip-last/RDL-first FoWLP processes because it offers debonding at room temperature, and because chemically stable materials are available. The UV laser debonding solutions presented in this article combine the advantages of the solid-state laser with low mainte- nance, low consumables costs and high pulse frequencies combined with high spatial control due to the special beam-shaping optics.

Further Readings

1. Critical process parameters and failure analysis for temporary bonded wafer stacks. Karine Abadie, Elisabeth Brandl, Frank Fournel, Pierre Montméa, Wimplinger, Jürgen Burggraf, Thomas Uhrmann, Julian Bravin. Fountain Hills, Arizona: iMaps, 2016. iMaps Device Packaging Conference.

2. Temporary Wafer Carrier Solutions for thin FOWLP and eWLB-based PoP. Jose Campos, André Cardoso, Mariana Pires, Eoin O’Toole, Raquel Pinto, Steffen Kröhnert, Emilie Jolivet, Thomas Uhrmann, Elizabeth Brandl, Jürgen Burggraf, Harald Wiesbauer, Julian Bravin, Markus Wimplinger and Paul Lindner. San Jose, California : SMTA International, 2015. iWLPC (International Wafer Level Packaging Conference).

3. Key Criteria for Successful Integration of Laser Debonding. Elisabeth Brandl, Thomas Uhrmann, Jürgen Burggraf, Martin Eibelhuber, Harald Wiesbauer, Mariana Pires, Philipp Kolmhofer, Matthias Pichler, Julian Bravin, Markus Wimplinger and Paul Lindner. San Jose, California : SMTA Inter- national, 2016. iWLPC.

North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $2.29 billion in billings worldwide in June 2017 (three-month average basis), according to the June Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Billings Report published today by SEMI.

SEMI reports that the three-month average of worldwide billings of North American equipment manufacturers in June 2017 was $2.29 billion. The billings figure is 0.8 percent higher than the final May 2017 level of $2.27 billion, and is 33.4 percent higher than the June 2016 billings level of $1.72 billion.

“Through the first half of the year, 2017 equipment billings are 50 percent above the same period last year,” said Dan Tracy, senior director, Industry Research & Statistics, SEMI.  “While month-to-month growth is slowing, 2017 will be a remarkable growth year for the semiconductor capital equipment industry.”

The SEMI Billings report uses three-month moving averages of worldwide billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.
Billings
(3-mo. avg)
Year-Over-Year
January 2017
$1,859.4
52.3%
February 2017
$1,974.0
63.9%
March 2017
$2,079.7
73.7%
April 2017
$2,136.4
46.3%
May 2017 (final)
$2,270.5
41.8%
June 2017 (prelim)
$2,288.9
33.4%

Source: SEMI (www.semi.org), July 2017
SEMI publishes a monthly North American Billings report and issues the Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) report in collaboration with the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ). The WWSEMS report currently reports billings by 24 equipment segments and by seven end market regions. SEMI also has a long history of tracking semiconductor industry fab investments in detail on a company-by-company and fab-by-fab basis in its World Fab Forecast and SEMI FabView databases. These powerful tools provide access to spending forecasts, capacity ramp, technology transitions, and other information for over 1,000 fabs worldwide. For an overview of available SEMI market data, please visit www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo.

 

In its upcoming Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2017 (to be released later this week), IC Insights addresses the changing landscape for semiconductor industry mergers and acquisitions.

The historic flood of merger and acquisition agreements that swept through the semiconductor industry in the past two years slowed to a trickle in the first half of 2017, with the combined value of about a dozen transactions announced in 1H17 reaching just $1.4 billion.

In the first halves of 2016 and the record-high M&A year of 2015, the combined value of acquisition agreements in 1H16 and 1H15 totaled $4.6 billion and $72.6 billion, respectively (Figure 1).  Last year, M&A got off to a slow start—compared to the record-breaking pace in 1H15—but several large transactions announced in 3Q16 pushed the 2016 total value in semiconductor acquisitions to nearly $100 billion and within striking distance of the all-time high of $107.3 billion set in 2015.  A few major semiconductor acquisitions were pending or rumored to be in the works during July 2017, but it is unlikely that a 2H17 surge in purchase agreements will bring this year’s M&A total value anywhere close to those of 2016 and 2015.

The big difference between semiconductor M&A activity in 2017 and the prior two years has been the lack of megadeals.  Thus far, only one transaction in 2017 has topped a half billion dollars (MaxLinear’s $687 million cash acquisition of analog and mixed-signal IC supplier Exar announced in March 2017 and completed in May).  There were seven announced acquisitions with values of more than $1 billion in 2016 (three of which were over $10 billion) and 10 in 2015 (four of which were over $10 billion).  IC Insights’ M&A list only covers semiconductor suppliers and excludes acquisitions of software and systems businesses by IC companies (e.g., Intel’s planned $15.3 billion purchase of Mobileye, an Israeli-based provider of digital imaging technology for autonomous vehicles, announced in March 2017).

The 250+ page Mid-Year Update to the 2017 edition of The McClean Report further describes IC Insights’ updated forecasts for the 2017-2021 timeperiod.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Worldwide PC shipments totaled 61.1 million units in the second quarter of 2017, a 4.3 percent decline from the second quarter of 2016, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. The PC industry is in the midst of a 5 year slump, and this is the 11th straight quarter of declining shipments. Shipments in the second quarter of this year were the lowest quarter volume since 2007.

“Higher PC prices due to the impact of component shortages for DRAM, solid state drives (SSDs) and LCD panels had a pronounced negative impact on PC demand in the second quarter of 2017,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner “The approach to higher component costs varied by vendor. Some decided to absorb the component price hike without raising the final price of their devices, while other vendors transferred the costs to the end-user price.”

However, in the business segment, vendors could not increase the price too quickly, especially in large enterprises where the price is typically locked in based on the contract, which often run through the quarter or even the year,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “In the consumer market, the price hike has a greater impact as buying habits are more sensitive to price increases. Many consumers are willing to postpone their purchases until the price pressure eases.”

HP Inc. reclaimed the top position from Lenovo in the worldwide PC market in the second quarter of 2017 (see Table 1). HP Inc. has achieved five consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth. Shipments grew in most regions, and it did especially well in the U.S. market where its shipments growth far exceeded the regional average.

Table 1
Preliminary Worldwide PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2Q17 (Thousands of Units)

Company

2Q17 Shipments

2Q17 Market Share (%)

2Q16 Shipments

2Q16 Market Share (%)

2Q17-2Q16 Growth (%)

HP Inc.

12,690

20.8

12,285

19.2

3.3

Lenovo

12,188

19.9

13,305

20.8

-8.4

Dell

9,557

15.6

9,421

14.7

1.4

Apple

4,236

6.9

4,252

6.7

-0.4

Asus

4,036

6.6

4,501

7.0

-10.3

Acer Group

3,850

6.3

4,402

6.9

-12.5

Others

14,546

23.8

15,710

24.6

-7.4

Total

61,105

100.0

63,876

100.0

-4.3

Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs and ultramobile premiums (such as Microsoft Surface), but not Chromebooks or iPads. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels. Numbers may not add up to totals shown due to rounding.
Source: Gartner (July 2017)

Lenovo’s global shipments declined 8.4 percent in the second quarter of 2017, after two quarters of growth. Lenovo recorded year-over-year shipment declines in all key regions. Ms. Kitagawa said the 2Q17 results could reflect Lenovo’s strategic shift from unit share gains to margin protection. The strategic balance between share gain and profitability is a challenge for all PC vendors.

Dell achieved five consecutive quarters of year-on-year global shipment growth, as shipments increased 1.4 percent in 2Q17. Dell has put a high priority on PCs as a strategic business. Among the top three vendors, Dell is the only vendor which can supply the integrated IT needs to businesses under the Dell Technologies umbrella of companies.

In the U.S., PC shipments totaled 14 million units in the second quarter of 2017, a 5.7 percent decline from the second quarter of 2016 (see Table 2). The U.S. market declined due to weak consumer PC demand. The business market has shown some consistent growth, while early indicators suggest that spending in the public sector was on track with normal seasonality as the second quarter is typically the peak PC procurement season. However, the education market was under pressure from strong Chromebook demand.

The Chromebook market has been growing much faster than the overall PC market. Gartner does not include Chromebook shipments within the overall PC market, but it is moderately impacting the PC market. Worldwide Chromebook shipments grew 38 percent in 2016, while the overall PC market declined 6 percent.

“The Chromebook is not a PC replacement as of now, but it could be potentially transformed as a PC replacement if a few conditions are met going forward,” Ms. Kitagawa said. “For example, infrastructure of general connectivity needs to improve; mobile data connectivity needs to become more affordable; and it needs to have more offline capability.”

Table 2
Preliminary U.S. PC Vendor Unit Shipment Estimates for 2Q17 (Thousands of Units)

Company

2Q17 Shipments

2Q17 Market Share (%)

2Q16 Shipments

2Q16 Market Share (%)

2Q17-2Q16 Growth (%)

HP Inc.

4,270

30.5

4,008

27.0

6.5

Dell

3,874

27.7

3,801

25.6

1.9

Lenovo

1,848

13.2

2,207

14.9

-16.3

Apple

1,649

11.8

1,825

12.3

-9.6

Asus

447

3.2

754

5.1

-40.7

Others

1,921

13.7

2,257

15.2

-14.9

Total

14,009

100.0

14,852

100.0

-5.7

Notes: Data includes desk-based PCs, notebook PCs and ultramobile premiums (such as Microsoft Surface), but not Chromebooks or iPads. All data is estimated based on a preliminary study. Final estimates will be subject to change. The statistics are based on shipments selling into channels. Numbers may not add up to totals shown due to rounding.
Source: Gartner (July 2017)

PC shipments in EMEA totaled 17 million units in the second quarter of 2017, a 3.5 percent decline year over year. There were mixed results across various countries. Uncertainty around the U.K. elections meant some U.K. businesses delayed buying, especially in the public sector. In France, consumer confidence rose more than expected after Emmanuel Macron was elected president, however spending on PCs remains sluggish. PC shipments increased in Germany as businesses invest in Windows 10 based new hardware, and the Russian market continued to show improvement driven by economic stabilization.

In Asia/Pacific, PC shipments surpassed 21.5 million units in the second quarter of 2017, down 5.1 percent from the same period last year. The PC market in this region was primarily affected by market dynamics in India and China. In India, the pent up demand after the demonetization cooled down after the first quarter, coupled with the absence of a large tender deal compared to a year ago and higher PC prices, brought about weak market growth. The China market was hugely impacted by the rise in PC prices due to the component shortage

These results are preliminary. Final statistics will be available soon to clients of Gartner’s PC Quarterly Statistics Worldwide by Region program. This program offers a comprehensive and timely picture of the worldwide PC market, allowing product planning, distribution, marketing and sales organizations to keep abreast of key issues and their future implications around the globe.

 

As active-matrix organic light-emitting diode (AMOLED) displays quickly displace liquid crystal displays (LCDs) in smartphones, panel makers are rapidly adding new production capacity, accelerating the demand for the fine metal mask (FMM), a critical production component used to manufacture red-green-blue (RGB) AMOLEDs. The FMM market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38 percent from $234 million in 2017 to $1.2 billion in 2022, according to IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

 

AMOLED_FMM_revenue_forecast

In the AMOLED manufacturing process, FMM is a production component used to pattern individual red, green and blue subpixels. A heating source evaporates organic light-emitting materials, but vapor deposition can only be controlled precisely with the use of a physical mask. FMM — a metal sheet, only tens of microns thick, with millions of very small holes per panel — is the only production-proven method of accurately depositing RGB color components in high-resolution displays.

“FMM has become a bottleneck in the supply of AMOLED panels due to the manufacturing technology challenges posed by increasing resolutions and a limited supply base. As pixels per inch (PPI) increase, thinner FMMs with finer dimensions are required, which reduce mask production yield and useable lifetime,” said Jerry Kang, senior principal analyst of display research at IHS Markit.

Dai Nippon Printing (DNP) is the dominant FMM supplier, owing to its proprietary etching technology for very thin metal foils and mass production experience. Currently, DNP’s FMMs are used to fabricate the vast majority of AMOLED smartphone panels, and exclusively for high-end quad high definition (QHD) resolutions. “Most panel makers are now trying to procure DNP’s FMM in hopes of being able to quickly ramp new fabs to high yields,” Kang said.

The critical nature of FMM and rapid demand growth are encouraging a number of companies to develop alternative FMM technologies and enter the market. Panel makers are also encouraging new players as a second source to mitigate supply chain risk and create price competition. As the supply of FMM is a determinant factor in the AMOLED display market to meet its projected growth rates, and with the FMM market forecast to grow five times its current size by 2022, FMM is garnering intense interest from both set and panel makers alike and creating new opportunities for suppliers.

The AMOLED Shadow Mask Technology & Market – 2017 report from IHS Markit provides a comprehensive analysis of the latest technology and market trends for FMMs and open masks, as well as mask and panel supplier status updates, including forecasts of revenues, units, area and prices from 2014 to 2022.

 

The semiconductor market in China continues to grow at a staggering speed. The current backbone of the electronics and telecom industry in China, semiconductor companies in China are driving innovation with new trends like spending on wafer fab equipment. China’s semiconductor consumption and overall semiconductor manufacturing has also seen rapid growth over the recent years. BizVibe predicts that China will overtake the US to become the leader in the global semiconductor market within the next five years.

BizVibe_Predicts_-_China_Will_Dominate_the_Global_Semiconductor_Market_in_the_Next_5_Years

BizVibe is home to over 55,000 Electronics & Telecoms companies around the world, including many in China. In a recent article titled China Sets to Dominate the Global Semiconductor Market, BizVibe closely examines what is driving growth for the semiconductor market in China.

BizVibe notes that, over the last ten years, both China’s semiconductor consumption and production revenues increased at a greater rate than worldwide revenues. From 2005 through 2015, China’s semiconductor industry grew at a ten-year compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.7%, while its semiconductor consumption grew at a rate of 14.3%, compared to the worldwide semiconductor market, which grew at a 4% CAGR.

One of the main reasons behind China’s growing semiconductor sector is attributed to the country’s rising wafer fab equipment spending trends over the last decade. Although China is expected to play an increasingly influential role in the global semiconductor market over the next few years, government incentives and market conditions still need improvement to allow for the further reduction in the consumption/production gap and long-range moderate growth.

In its upcoming Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2017 (to be released at the end of July), IC Insights addresses the amazing growth of the 2017 DRAM and NAND flash memory markets.

Sales of both memory types—DRAM and NAND—are expected to set record highs this year.  In both cases, the strong annual upturn in sales is being driven almost entirely by fast-rising average selling prices.  In the case of DRAM, unit shipments are actually forecast to show a decline this year.  Moreover, NAND shipments are forecast to increase only 2%, providing a small, added boost to the market growth in that segment. Prices for DRAM and NAND first began increasing in the second half of 2016, and continued with quarterly increases through the first half of 2017. Figure 1 plots the robust quarterly ASP growth rates, which, from 3Q16 through 2Q17, averaged 16.8% for DRAM and 11.6% for NAND.

Figure 1

Figure 1

With DRAM ASPs surging since the third quarter of 2016, DRAM manufacturers once again stepped up their spending for this segment.  However, the majority of this spending is going towards technology advancements and not toward capacity additions.

IC Insights believes that essentially all of the spending for flash memory in 2017 will be used for 3D NAND flash memory process technology as opposed to planar flash memory.  A big increase in NAND flash capital spending this year is expected from Samsung as it ramps 3D NAND production at its large, new fab in Pyeongtaek, South Korea.

Historical precedent in the memory market shows that too much spending usually leads to overcapacity and subsequent pricing weakness. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Intel, Toshiba/SanDisk, and XMC/Yangtze River Storage Technology each plan to significantly ramp up 3D NAND flash capacity over the next couple of years (with additional new Chinese producers possibly entering the market).  The likelihood of overshooting 3D NAND flash capacity over the next few years is very high.

IC Insights shows the DRAM quarterly ASP growth rate peaked in 4Q16 but continued a strong upward trend through 2Q17. IC Insights forecasts the DRAM ASP to increase (though marginally) into 3Q17 before edging slightly negative in 4Q17, signaling the end of another cyclical upturn.

Even though DRAM ASP growth is forecast to slow in the second half of the year, the annual DRAM ASP growth rate is still forecast to be 63%, which would be the largest annual rise for DRAM ASPs dating back to 1993 when IC Insights first started tracking this data.  The previous record-high annual growth rate for DRAM ASP was 57% in 1997.  For NAND flash, the 2017 ASP is forecast to increase 33%, also a record high gain. (In the year 2000, the predominantly NOR-based flash ASP jumped 52%).

The 250+ page Mid-Year Update to the 2017 edition of The McClean Report further describes IC Insights’ updated forecasts for DRAM and NAND flash memory for 2017-2021 and includes a refreshed outlook on its semiconductor capital expenditure forecast.

TECHCET CA—the advisory service firm providing electronic materials information—today announced that specialty chemical precursor market for the deposition of dielectrics and metals in integrated circuit (IC) fabrication is forecasted to increase at ~10% CAGR through the year 2021. TECHCET’s proprietary Wafer Forecast Model (WFM) shows that 3D-NAND devices are expected to grow at a rapid pace from 2016 and become one of the top three market segments by 2020. Logic ICs will continue to evolve, from 3D finFET devices to Gate-All-Around Nano-Wires (GAA-NW), enabled by new critical materials and manufacturing processes as detailed in new reports from TECHCET, “Advanced Insulating Dielectric Precursors,” and “ALD/CVD High-k & Metal Precursors.”

Precursors tracked by TECHCET for ALD/CVD of metal and high-k dielectric films on IC wafers include sources of aluminum, cobalt, hafnium, tantalum, titanium, tungsten, and zirconium. The total market for 2017 is now estimated to be US$435M, growing to US$638M in 2021. The top-2 suppliers are estimated to hold more than half of the total available market, with many players competing to supply the next enabling molecule. In particular, cobalt precursor demand is forecasted to reach >$80M in 2021 as foundries transition to below 14nm-node processing. As a potential conflict mineral, TECHCET tracks the sub-suppliers of cobalt.

“Metal precursors have had double-digit growth over an extended period of time, and we expect that to continue as the IC industry transitions to 10nm- and 7nm-node logic and 3D-NAND fabrication, with an average long term CAGR of 11% over 2013 to 2021,” says Dr. Jonas Sundqvist, lead author of the report, senior technology analyst with TECHCET and researcher with Fraunhofer IKTS. “Dielectric precursors growth today is clearly driven by dielectric PEALD deposition in multiple patterning, and by dielectric CVD in 3D-NAND.”

Precursors tracked by TECHCET for ALD/CVD/SOD of advanced dielectric films on IC wafers include multiple sources of silicon. The total market for 2017 is now estimated to be just over US$400M, growing to US$560M in 2021. Current growth over 10% is expected to slow slightly to be in the 8-10% range over 2019-2021. Anticipated near-term developments include transitions from CVD to ALD for several IC fab modules.

Leti today announced that the European FP7 project PLAT4M has now been completed with results that exceeded expectations.

Si photonics has long been expected to bring substantial breakthroughs in very high speed data communications, telecommunications and supercomputing. In addition, it is one of the most promising industrial-production candidates because of its potential for large-scale and low-cost production capability in existing CMOS foundries.

The European Commission launched the 15-member PLAT4M project in 2012 to build a Si photonics supply chain in Europe that would speed industrialization of the technology by enabling its seamless transition to commercial production.

The main objective of PLAT4M was to advance existing silicon photonics research foundries and seamlessly transition to pilot line operation and industrial manufacturing of products based on silicon photonics. The supply chain is based on three different but complementary technology platforms of Leti, STMicroelectronics and imec.

Leti Platform

Leti’s 8,500m2 cleanroom facility includes a 200mm pilot line that enables fabrication of passives, detectors, modulators and integrated lasers with a focus on high-bandwidth devices. The project team developed a new Si-photonic platform based on a 310nm silicon film on top of an 800nm buried oxide (BOX) on a high-resistivity silicon substrate. Since the targeted applications for the project were O-band transceivers and receivers, most of the developed devices are suitable for 1310nm operations.

CEA-LETI has developed 3 PDKs which are dedicated to Multi Project Wafers (MPW) runs on this silicon photonics technology which is now offered via the brokers CMP and Europractice. Moreover, III-V Lab has designed and co-fabricated a state-of-the-art integrated hybrid III-V/Si transmitter using a wafer bonding technique on this platform.

STMicroelectronics Platform 

STMicroelectronics, the first 300mm wafer silicon photonics device manufacturer, is a key solution provider for 100 Gbps transceiver products since 2016. In parallel to its industrial activity, during the PLAT4M project ST developed another silicon photonics technology aimed at generating and nurturing further application specific industrial nodes. This technology platform creates an advanced photonic nanoscale environment, and combines state-of-the-art CMOS foundry tools with the flexibility necessary to support R&D efforts. Strong collaboration with research partners such as CEA LETI and University Paris Sud have been devoted to advanced studies in power consumption management, optical excess loss reduction and higher data-rate transmissions using complex modulation formats, signal multiplexing and higher Baud-rate devices. With R&D exploration that goes as far as core-to-core optical interposers, ST has also evaluated notions of device and circuit footprints toward Large System Integration (LSI).

In the context of PLAT4M, the participants chose a 4×25G transceiver as a Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) data-communication demonstrator to validate both LETI and ST R&D platforms. The device functionalities were evaluated for compatibility with the 100GBase-LR4 standard, implying a signal transmission over 4 channels, spaced by 800 GHz around 1310 nm window, one fiber out and one fiber in.

imec Platform

In the course of the PLAT4M project imec has consolidated and further developed its silicon photonics technology platform ISIPP25G using its 200mm pilot line facilities located in Leuven to support industrial prototyping for various applications and markets. The imec platform component portfolio has been expanded to specific devices for sensing and high power free space applications. Furthermore, imec’s technology is supporting state-of-the-art modulation and detection at 50Gb/s and beyond with a variety of modulator options (GeSi EAM, Si MZM, Si MRM) now offered under its ISIPP50G technology along with both edge and surface fiber coupling technology and a library of O-Band and C-Band high quality passive components.

The technology is accessible through imec’s PDK, which is supported by software tools from several vendors including project partner PhoeniX Software. In collaboration with Mentor, a Siemens business, imec has also explored LVS verifications to reduce design errors and performed litho-friendly design analysis to improve the patterning predictability. Using the imec technology with new processing steps, TNO has demonstrated a multi-channel ring resonator based sensor system. Polytec demonstrated the operation of Multichannel Laser Doppler Vibrometer. THALES has demonstrated an integrated FMCW LiDAR system with 8 switchable output channels, enabling to scanning directions as well as a coherent beam combiner with 16 beams with linear operation up to a maximum input power of 26dBm. The thermal phase-shifter elements achieved a power efficiency of 10mW for a p-phase shift.

Finally, imec has demonstrated new advances in its technology such as a very low loss silicon waveguide technology (~0.6dB/cm for a 220nmx450nm waveguide) applying leading edge CMOS patterning technology developed in its 300mm pilot line with immersion lithography. It has also demonstrated a further reduction of thermal phase-shifter elements down to 4mW for a p-phase shift.

In an Unified Design Environment

The PLAT4M project has led to a qualitative leap of the design flow for silicon photonics, allowing the photonics community to design more complex and more robust circuits. Mentor and PhoeniX Software have worked closely together on an integrated electronics/photonics co-design workflow. This has been accomplished by building on existing tool-sets wherever possible and developing new technologies when required.

The supply chain includes EDA solutions such as Mentor’s Pyxis™ and Calibre®, which were extended to “understand” photonics. Interfaces were developed between these tools and Photonic IC design solution OptoDesigner from PhoeniX Software to create integrated design flows using the best practices from both photonics and electronics design. In addition, process design kit elements were developed for Mentor’s Calibre DRC, Calibre LVS, and Pyxis tools, incorporating new components, added models and fabrication information.

Producing a Packaging toolkit 

Packaging played a key role in the development of the project demonstrators. The skills and processes developed by Aifotec and Tyndall, advanced the development of the Silicon Photonic packaging toolkit. This toolkit establishes standardised packaging processes for optical fibres, active devices, electronic components and thermo-mechanical systems to ensure that PICs can be more easily packaged in a timely and cost-effective way. A design rule document was made available through EuroPractice by Tyndall and also implemented into PDKs for OptoDesigner.

Perspectives 

“The consortium developed advanced technologies and tools by building a coherent design flow, demonstrating manufacturability of elementary devices and process integration, and developing a packaging toolkit,” said Jean-Marc Fedeli, coordinator of the PLAT4M project. “The high level of maturity of the technology offered by these platforms makes them readily accessible to a broad circle of users in a fabless model.”

In its upcoming Mid-Year Update to The McClean Report 2017 (to be released at the end of July), IC Insights forecasts that the 2017 global electronic systems market will grow by only 2% to $1,493 billion while the worldwide semiconductor market is expected to surge by 15% this year to $419.1 billion. Moreover, IC Insights forecasts that the total semiconductor market will exceed $500.0 billion four years from now in 2021.  If the 2017 forecasts come to fruition, the average semiconductor content in an electronic system will reach 28.1%, an all-time record (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Figure 1

Historically, the driving force behind the higher average annual growth rate of the semiconductor industry as compared to the electronic systems market is the increasing value or content of semiconductors used in electronic systems.  With global unit shipments of cellphones (0%), automobiles (2%), and PCs (-2%) forecast to be weak in 2017, the disparity between the slow growth in the electronic systems market and high growth of the semiconductor market is directly due to the increasing content of semiconductors in electronic systems.

While the trend of increasing semiconductor content has been evident for the past 30 years, the big jump in the average semiconductor content in electronic systems in 2017 is expected to be primarily due to the huge surge in DRAM and NAND flash ASPs and below average electronic system sales growth this year. After dipping slightly to 28.6% in 2020, the semiconductor content figure is expected to climb to 28.9% in 2021, an average yearly gain over the 2016-2021 timeperiod of about 0.8 percentage points.

Of course, the trend of increasingly higher semiconductor value in electronic systems has a limit. Extrapolating an annual increase in the percent semiconductor figure indefinitely would, at some point in the future, result in the semiconductor content of an electronic system reaching 100%.  Whatever the ultimate ceiling is, once it is reached, the average annual growth for the semiconductor industry will closely track that of the electronic systems market (i.e., about 4% per year).  In IC Insights’ opinion, the “ceiling” is at least 30% but will not be reached within the forecast period.

The 250+ page Mid-Year Update to the 2017 edition of The McClean Report further describes IC Insights’ IC market forecast data for 2017-2021.