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By Lynnette Reese, Editor-in-Chief, Embedded Intel® Solutions

According to SEMI (semi.org), the global semiconductor revenue forecast for the second half of 2018 was doubled from 7.5 to 15 percent, a substantial growth. The semiconductor industry has seen cycles of growth and stagnation before, as innovative new products peak and decline before new technologies come out to drive growth from another direction. The wide adoption of personal computers marked great growth in semiconductors; a market that has been dominated by Intel for decades. When the PC market began to mature, a period of stagnation was followed by the mobile computing era. Companies like Qualcomm and MediaTek emerged as key players in the mobile industry. However, both computer and mobile sectors are now sustainable, but not growing appreciably.

Figure 1: Entegris works with automakers and mainstream fabs to investigate reducing contaminants and particles that don’t affect yield yet cause critical problems in long-term reliability. (Image courtesy of Entegris, ©2018).

Recently, multiple growth engines have kicked in for semiconductors, driving a new era of growth. Growth drivers include data centers, a growing “economy of data,” artificial intelligence, virtual reality, autonomous vehicles, and increasing automation in industrial applications, particularly in the Internet of Things (IoT) and robotics. The concurrent emergence of several new markets and applications has prompted a high demand; from leading edge chips on down to some of the legacy nodes. In turn, growth in semiconductors is driving the need for materials and better technologies for Integrated Chips (ICs).

Companies feeding the boom with materials and chemicals for making ICs are seeing growth that shows no signs of abating. One materials company, Entegris (ENTG), has recently expanded its Kulim manufacturing capacity and capabilities, adding new tooling, molding machines, and numerous updates to the assembly area so that Entegris can meet the demand for wafer handling products. Entegris is a 52-year-old company that, for context, was founded two years before Intel Corporation. Entegris provides materials and material solutions to semiconductor companies (semis). Currently, the company has about 4,000 employees with sales revenue of approximately $1.5 billion. Entegris has been expanding rapidly in recent years, achieving growth by about two to three percent above the market. The company is now viewed by most investors as a growth company than as an industrial, “cyclical business” type of company. Entegris is assisting the semiconductor industry in two ways: by helping the semis realize more advanced technologies and by providing materials for making chips.

Figure 2: Robotic handling equipment in a clean room. (Image courtesy of Entegris, ©2018)

Entegris has three divisions that address three different elements of semiconductor manufacturing. The first division provides advanced materials such as specialty chemicals, specialty gas mixtures, cleaning chemicals, deposition chemicals, specialty coatings, graphite, silicon carbide (SiC), and many other materials that fabrication plants (fabs) use to make chips. The second group at Entegris is involved in benefiting materials handling with carriers for handling wafers and photomasks, wafer and reticle handling, fluid management, sensing, control, and supply and delivery of chemicals to fabs. It is chip growth that primarily drives the growth of all Entegris’ divisions, with some growth influenced by advances in technology. The third division focuses on microcontamination control and primarily handles leading edge filtration and purification (at levels measured in parts per trillion). Microcontamination control is presently the fastest growing division at Entegris. Anything that touches the semiconductor wafer must go through a filter and purifier, whether gas, liquid, photo-resist, slurries, or other chemicals.

Figure 3: Entegris provides solutions to eliminate some of the random inferences impacting reliability. (Image courtesy of Entegris, © 2018)

Why is microcontamination control important?

Technologies continue to improve such that the industry is now producing Systems-on-chip (SoCs) at the 7 nm node and is headed to 5 nm. At such a scale, any particle or contaminants can make a chip fail. Enterprises like Entegris’ microcontamination control group are the last line of defense against contaminants for all chipmakers. Entegris works with automakers and mainstream fabs to investigate reducing some of the contaminants and particles that are not affecting yield yet are causing critical problems in long-term chip reliability.

According to Wenge Yang, Vice President of Marketing Strategy at Entegris, “Many existing and mainstream fabs are yielding high 90 percent range. However, we recently found that particles that are small enough to not cause a reduction in chip yield – can still cause reliability issues down the road. This has triggered Entegris to become an industry advocate on a new effort to reduce contaminants even further than has been practiced up to now.”

A Hot Topic

Entegris spotted a trend emerging about a year or two ago as semis began rooting out causes affecting long-term chip reliability that included microcontamination that did not affect yield but could affect a chips’ long-term reliability. There’s no greater concern for reliability than in autonomous cars; it’s become a hot topic.

The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) International issued a standard (J3016) that defines six levels of automation for self-driving cars. Level zero has no automation whatsoever. Adaptive cruise control is a Level one feature. Level two specifies partial automation. Level three defines conditional automation, such as Tesla’s Autopilot. Level four demonstrates a high level of automation where the car can operate without human oversight under certain conditions. Level five is full automation with no human involvement.

“One of the most interesting things we have seen is that with the growth of some specific sectors, the design and manufacturing challenge is changing,” Wenge affirms. “One example is in the automotive industry. If an automobile used only two or 300 chips total, the failure rate is not causing that much of a headache as it does if you have 10,000 chips in one car.”

Level Five autonomous cars may have as many as 10 LiDAR systems around the car, gathering data and processing signals and images in real-time, with low latencies. A fully autonomous car might have 10,000 ICs with 50 percent of the cost of the car sunk into the electronics. With that many chips in one autonomous vehicle, automakers begin to parallel NASA-level care in design and manufacturing, but without the added safety of redundant systems due to cost and size constraints. Add to this pressurized scenario the harsh automotive environment with extreme temperatures and constant, heavy vibration.

Figure 4: Autonomous Waymo Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivan undergoing testing in Los Altos, California, November 2017. Credit: Dllu, CC BY-SA 4.0.

“With these many chips in each car, if you have a failure rate of one chip out of one million, then several hundred cars might fail on the roads every single day,” states Wenge. The resulting repairs, medical bills, and lawsuits would be costlier than fixing the reliability issue at the outset. “For Entegris, the intrinsic need for increased reliability is an excellent opportunity.”

The military, aerospace, and avionics industries commonly employ redundant systems. However, the automotive industry cannot afford redundant systems, which means that we must improve the single systems’ reliability. The Level Five autonomous car sends processed data feeds into a central computer that decides whether the car should brake, slow down, accelerate, and so forth. If any component in any autonomous automotive systems fails, the car may not collect crucial data.  If the car has made a decision, it may be unable to execute on it. The possibility for failure is multiplied as automakers load thousands of ICs in a single car.

As Wenge points out, “Autonomous car makers start to realize, ‘If I put that many chips into the car, I run the risk of reliability everywhere.’ Of greater concern are chips that have passed on down the line as ‘good’ in a 100 percent yield batch…but can still fail in the field. This is how the topic of detailed reliability gets triggered.”  The design process for automotive applications must be accompanied by very high awareness of the reliability consequences. States Wenge, “Entegris is providing solutions to eliminate some of the random inferences impacting reliability.

Wenge Yang, Ph.D. Vice President, Market Strategy Dr. Yang joined Entegris in 2012 to serve as the Vice President of Market Strategy. In his role, he is responsible for Entegris product and market strategy, market research and market trend analysis, strategic marketing, and the company’s strategic technology roadmap. Before joining Entegris, Dr. Yang was an equity research analyst at Citigroup covering the semiconductor equipment and materials sector. He also served in various executive roles at Advanced Micro Devices, Tokyo Electron, and two start-up companies. Dr. Yang received a Ph.D. in Materials Science and Engineering and an MBA from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. Master of Science degree in Mechanical Engineering from the New Jersey Institute of Technology, and a Bachelor of Science degree in Materials Science and Engineering from Shanghai Jiao Tong University.

North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.94 billion in billings worldwide in November 2018 (three-month average basis), according to the November Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Billings Report published today by SEMI. The billings figure is 4.2 percent lower than the final October 2018 level of $2.03 billion, and is 5.3 percent lower than the November 2017 billings level of $2.05 billion.

“For the first time in over two years, billings of North American equipment manufacturers are down relative to the same month the year before,” said Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI. “After reaching historical revenues earlier this year, billings activity is decelerating in line with weaker growth expectations for 2019.”

The SEMI Billings report uses three-month moving averages of worldwide billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.
Billings
(3-mo. avg.)
Year-Over-Year
June 2018
$2,484.3
8.0%
July 2018
$2,377.9
4.8%
August 2018
$2,236.8
2.5%
September 2018 (final)
$2,078.6
1.2%
October 2018 (final)
$2,029.2
0.5%
November 2018 (prelim)
$1,943.9
5.3%

Source: SEMI (www.semi.org), December 2018

SEMI publishes a monthly North American Billings report and issues the Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) report in collaboration with the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan (SEAJ). The WWSEMS report currently reports billings by 24 equipment segments and by seven end market regions. SEMI also has a long history of tracking semiconductor industry fab investments in detail on a company-by-company and fab-by-fab basis in its World Fab Forecast and SEMI FabView databases. These powerful tools provide access to spending forecasts, capacity ramp, technology transitions, and other information for over 1,000 fabs worldwide. For an overview of available SEMI market data, please visit www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo.

In microelectronic devices, the bandgap is a major factor determining the electrical conductivity of the underlying materials. Substances with large bandgaps are generally insulators that do not conduct electricity well, and those with smaller bandgaps are semiconductors. A more recent class of semiconductors with ultrawide bandgaps (UWB) are capable of operating at much higher temperatures and powers than conventional small-bandgap silicon-based chips made with mature bandgap materials like silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN).

In the Journal of Applied Physics, from AIP Publishing, researchers at the University of Florida, the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory and Korea University provide a detailed perspective on the properties, capabilities, current limitations and future developments for one of the most promising UWB compounds, gallium oxide (Ga2O3).

Gallium oxide possesses an extremely wide bandgap of 4.8 electron volts (eV) that dwarfs silicon’s 1.1 eV and exceeds the 3.3 eV exhibited by SiC and GaN. The difference gives Ga2O3 the ability to withstand a larger electric field than silicon, SiC and GaN can without breaking down. Furthermore, Ga2O3 handles the same amount of voltage over a shorter distance. This makes it invaluable for producing smaller, more efficient high-power transistors.

“Gallium oxide offers semiconductor manufacturers a highly applicable substrate for microelectronic devices,” said Stephen Pearton, professor of materials science and engineering at the University of Florida and an author on the paper. “The compound appears ideal for use in power distribution systems that charge electric cars or converters that move electricity into the power grid from alternative energy sources such as wind turbines.”

Pearton and his colleagues also looked at the potential for Ga2O3 as a base for metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors, better known as MOSFETs. “Traditionally, these tiny electronic switches are made from silicon for use in laptops, smart phones and other electronics,” Pearton said. “For systems like electric car charging stations, we need MOSFETs that can operate at higher power levels than silicon-based devices and that’s where gallium oxide might be the solution.”

To achieve these advanced MOSFETs, the authors determined that improved gate dielectrics are needed, along with thermal management approaches that will more effectively extract heat from the devices. Pearton concluded that Ga2O3 will not replace SiC and GaN as the as the next primary semiconductor materials after silicon, but more likely will play a role in extending the range of powers and voltages accessible to ultrawide bandgap systems.

“The most promising application might be as high-voltage rectifiers in power conditioning and distribution systems such as electric cars and photovoltaic solar systems,” he said.

Total fab equipment spending in 2019 is projected to drop 8 percent, a sharp reversal from the previously forecast increase of 7 percent as fab investment growth has been revised downward for 2018 to 10 percent from the 14 percent predicted in August, according to the latest edition of the World Fab Forecast Report published by SEMI.

Entering 2018, the semiconductor industry was expected to show a rare fourth consecutive year of equipment investment growth in 2019. But the SEMI World Fab Forecast Report, tracking more than 400 fabs and lines with major investment projects, forecast in August a slowdown in the second half of 2018 and into the first half of 2019. Now, with recent industry developments, a steeper downturn in fab equipment is expected (Figure 1).

Figure 1

The report shows overall spending down 13 percent in the second half of 2018 and 16 percent in the first half of 2019 with a strong increase in fab equipment spending expected in the second half of 2019.

Plunging memory prices and a sudden shift in companies’ strategies in response to trade tensions are driving rapid drops in capital expenditures, especially among leading-edge memory manufacturers, some fabs in China, and some projects for mature nodes such as 28nm. Industry sectors expecting record-breaking growth in 2019, such as memory and China, are now leading the decline.

Following a sharp fall in NAND flash pricing earlier this year, DRAM prices in the fourth quarter of 2018 began to soften, seemingly ending the two-year DRAM boom. Inventory corrections and CPU shortages continue, prompting predictions of even steeper price declines.

Memory makers have quickly responded to changing market conditions by adjusting capital expenditures (capex), and tool orders have been put on hold. DRAM spending may see an even deeper correction in 2019 while NAND flash-related investment could also suffer a double-digit decline next year.

A review of spending by industry sector reveals that, while memory capital expenditures were expected to grow by 3 percent in 2019, they are now forecast to drop by 19 percent year-over-year (YOY). DRAM is hit the hardest with a fall of 23 percent, while 3D NAND will contract 13 percent in 2019.

China and Korea are suffering the largest drops in spending since the August report.

China fab spending falls

Projections for equipment spending in China in 2019 have been revised from US$17 billion in August to US$12 billion, with multiple factors at play including a slowing memory market, trade tensions, and delays in some project timelines.

SK Hynix is expected to slow DRAM expansion in 2019. GLOBALFOUNDRIES reconsidered its plan for the Chengdu fab, delaying the ramp. SMIC and UMC are slowing spending. The Fujian Jinhua DRAM project has been put on hold.

Korea fab spending down

In August, SEMI forecast that Korea fab equipment spending would decline by 8 percent, to US$17 billion, in 2019 – a projection that has now been slashed to US$12 billion, a drop of 35 percent YoY. Samsung began to reduce equipment investments in the fourth quarter of 2018, and the spending cuts are expected to continue into the first half of 2019. Samsung’s largest projects to be hit are P1 (slowdown) and the ramp of P2 Phase 1 (delayed). Adjustments to the S3 schedule are also expected.

Not all memory makers cut capital expenditures

While SEMI’s detailed, fab-level data show that some memory makers will scale back capital expenditures for 2019, one company stands out. Micron will increase capex for FY19 to US$10.5 billion, up about 28 percent, or $8.2 billion, from FY18. Micron plans to expand and upgrade facilities, invest less in NAND in FY19 than in FY18, and anticipates no new wafer starts.

Outlook still upbeat for mature technologies

In other sectors, especially for non-leading-edge and specialty technologies, some fabs are still increasing investments (Figure 2).

Figure 2

Opto – especially CMOS image sensors – shows strong growth, surging 33 percent to US$3.8 billion in 2019. Micro (MPU, MCU and DSP) is expected to grow more than 40 percent in 2019 to US$4.8 billion. Analog and mixed signal investments also show strong growth – 19 percent – in 2019, bringing spending to US$660 million. The foundry sector, the second largest product segment in total investments at US$13 billion, shows a 10 percent rise in 2019.

The recent three-year boom in the semiconductor market was chiefly driven by the memory sector (e.g. DRAM and 3D NAND flash). One company, Samsung, invested at unprecedented levels, lifting the entire industry. Other memory makers rode the wave of the boom cycle by boosting investments. And China’s profile rose with its huge investments. The industry was poised for four consecutive years of revenue growth – a streak not seen since the 1990s.

Now the industry faces well-known threats of inventory correction and the trade war. Both phenomena could slow growth significantly and if both unfold in full force in tandem, the impact could be serious. The data in SEMI’s latest publication of the World Fab Forecast show that the four-year growth streak will not materialize.

Since its August 2018 publication, more than 260 updates have been made to the World Fab Forecast. The report now includes more than 1,280 records of current and 115 future front-end semiconductor facilities from high-volume production to research and development. The report covers data and predictions through 2019, including milestones, detailed investments by quarter, product types, technology nodes and capacities down to fab and project level.

The SEMI World Fab Forecast examines capital expenditure plans of individual front-end device manufacturers, while the SEMI bi-annual Semiconductor Equipment Sales Forecast is based on year-to-date data collected from equipment manufacturers and modeled off of announced capital expenditure plans of both front-end and back-end equipment manufacturers.

IC Insights is in the process of revising its forecast and analysis of the IC industry and will present its new findings in The McClean Report 2019, which will be published in January 2019.  Among the revisions is a complete update of forecast growth rates of the 33 main product categories classified by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization (WSTS) through the year 2023.

Topping the chart of fastest-growing products for 2018 is DRAM, which comes as no surprise given the strong rise of average selling prices in this segment over the past two years (Figure 1).  The 2018 DRAM market is expected to show an increase of 39%, a solid follow-up to the 77% growth in 2017. The number-one position is not unfamiliar territory for the DRAM market.  It was also the fastest-growing IC segment in 2013 and 2014.

Figure 1

Remarkably, DRAM has been at the top and near the bottom of this list over the past six years, demonstrating its very volatile and cyclical nature.  IC Insights forecasts that DRAM will rank nearly last in terms of market growth in 2019, with a 1% decrease in total sales.  After two strong years of growth, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron—the world’s three primary DRAM suppliers—have expanded their manufacturing capacity and are beginning to ramp up production, bringing some much needed relief to strained supplies, especially for high-performance DRAM devices. At the same time, shipments of large-scale datacenter servers, which were a primary catalyst for much of the recent DRAM market surge, have begun to ease as uncertain economic and trade conditions factor into decisions about continuing with the strong build out.

NAND flash joins DRAM as another memory segment that has enjoyed very strong growth over the past two years (Figure 2).  Solid-state computing, particularly, has been a key driver for high-density, high-performance NAND flash even as mobile applications continue to be a significant driver. Meanwhile, automotive and computing special purpose logic devices have also been strong performers the past two years.  The top five IC markets listed for 2018 are the only product categories that are expected to surpasses the 17% growth rate of the total IC market this year.

Figure 2

The full list of IC product rankings and forecasts for the 2019-2023 timeperiod is included in The McClean Report 2019, which will be released in January 2019.

Panel FO-WLP is in production at Powertech Technology, Inc. (PTI) for MediaTek’s power management integrated circuit (PMIC) for smartphone applications. The Samsung Galaxy watch uses the fan-out panel level process (FOPLP) developed by Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO) to package the application processor and PMIC. Future applications under consideration for panel production include application processors, memory and RF modules. TechSearch International, Inc. details these applications and analyzes monthly panel requirements and planned capacity. Supplier plans are discussed and consortia activities are highlighted.

One of the major market trends in wearable electronics is the shift to smartwatches, which have surpassed shipment numbers for wristbands. Package trends for wearable electronic products are analyzed, including Apple’s new smartwatch using TSMC’s InFO and Samsung’s Galaxy using FOPLP. The latest trends in augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) headsets are discussed. A detailed analysis of the change in packages from the previous generation HTC Vive VR system is presented.

A detailed analysis of the OSAT financials is provided with regional growth documented. Board and substrate material requirements for 5G applications are presented.

The latest Advanced Packaging Update is a 45-page report with full references and an accompanying set of 46 PowerPoint slides.

TechSearch International, Inc., founded in 1987, is a market research leader specializing in technology trends in microelectronics packaging and assembly. Multi- and single-client services encompass technology licensing, strategic planning, and market and technology analysis. TechSearch International professionals have an extensive network of more than 18,000 contacts in North America, Asia, and Europe. For more information, contact TechSearch at tel: 512-372-8887 or see www.techsearchinc.com. Follow us on twitter @Jan_TechSearch

By Walt Custer

Global growth by electronic sector

Now that most companies in our sector analyses have reported their calendar third quarter 2018 financial results, we have final or 3Q’18/2Q’17 growth estimates for the world electronic supply chain (Chart 1). We estimate electronic equipment grew 6.7% on a U.S. dollar-denominated basis.

Source: Custer Consulting Group based on consolidated financial reports of public companies

Electronic equipment growth has peaked for this current business cycle (Chart 2), dropping from +11.1% in the second quarter to 6.7% in the third quarter. Most of the supply chain is responding to this slowing.

Semiconductors, SEMI equipment an Taiwan chip foundries

While the most recent growth rates in Charts 1 & 2 are for the third quarter, October and November growth is included in Chart 3.  Foundry growth was +4.6% in November, world semiconductor shipments eased to +12.7% in October and SEMI capital equipment slipped to +10% also in October. The days of the +30% growth rates are behind us for this current business cycle!

Sources: SIA; SEMI; financial reports of Taiwan listed foundry companies

Global semiconductor growth outlook for 2019

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization in conjunction with the SIA just updated the chip shipment forecasts for 2018 and 2019 (Chart 4). World semiconductor shipments were estimated to have climbed 15.9% (in U.S. dollars) in 2018 but are predicted to slow to a +2.6% rate in 2019.

Source: www.wsts.org, www.semiconductors.org

Looking forward

The Global Manufacturing PMI (Chart 5) leveled out in November but remained well below its December 2017 high.  This translates to a slower but still positive world expansion in the short term. By region (Chart 6), U.S. growth remains robust, Japan picked up, Europe continues to decelerate, China is near zero growth and Taiwan and South Korea are contracting.

Source: www.markiteconomics.com

ll eyes are on the global economy, Brexit, trade wars and bizarre political wrangling. 2019 could be a very volatile year!

Walt Custer of Custer Consulting Group is an analyst focused on the global electronics industry.

Releasing its Year-End Total Equipment Forecast at the annual SEMICON Japan exposition, SEMI, the global industry association representing the electronics manufacturing supply chain, today reported that worldwide sales of new semiconductor manufacturing equipment are projected to increase 9.7 percent to $62.1 billion in 2018, exceeding the historic high of $56.6 billion set last year. The equipment market is expected to contract 4.0 percent in 2019 but grow 20.7 percent to reach $71.9 billion, an all-time high.

The SEMI Year-end Forecast predicts wafer processing equipment will rise 10.2 percent in 2018 to $50.2 billion. The other front-end segment – consisting of fab facilities equipment, wafer manufacturing, and mask/reticle equipment – is expected to increase 0.9 percent to $2.5 billion this year. The assembly and packaging equipment segment is projected to grow 1.9 percent to $4.0 billion in 2018, while semiconductor test equipment is forecast to increase 15.6 percent to $5.4 billion this year.

In 2018, South Korea will remain the largest equipment market for the second year in a row. China will rise in the rankings to claim the second spot for the first time, dislodging Taiwan, which will fall to the third position. All regions tracked except Taiwan, North America, and Korea will experience growth. China will lead in growth with 55.7 percent, followed by Japan at 32.5 percent, Rest of World (primarily Southeast Asia) at 23.7 percent, and Europe at 14.2 percent.

For 2019, SEMI forecasts that South Korea, China, and Taiwan will remain the top three markets, with all three regions maintaining their relative rankings. Equipment sales in South Korea is forecast to reach $13.2 billion, in China $12.5 billion, and in Taiwan $11.81 billion. Japan, Taiwan and North America are the only regions expected to experience growth next year. The growth picture is much more optimistic in 2020, with all regional markets expected to increase in 2020, with the market increasing the most in Korea, followed by China, and Rest of World.

The following results are in terms of market size in billions of U.S. dollars:

The Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) from SEMI provides comprehensive market data for the global semiconductor equipment market. A subscription includes three reports:

  • Monthly SEMI Billings Report, an early perspective of the trends in the equipment market
  • Monthly Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (SEMS), a detailed report of semiconductor equipment bookings and billings for seven regions and over 22 market segments
  • SEMI Mid-Year Forecast, an outlook for the semiconductor equipment market

SEMICON Japan 2018, the largest and most influential event for the electronics manufacturing supply chain in Japan with more than 70,000 attendees expected, opens tomorrow at Tokyo Big Sight. Themed “Dreams Start Here,” The Dec. 12-14 exposition and conference gathers industry leaders and visionaries for insights into the latest technologies, innovations and trends in the electronics industry, including emerging opportunities in SMART applications and the all-new SMART Application Zone.

With artificial intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT) transforming industries and applications, Japan is uniquely positioned to meet the electronics industry’s new demands with a strong customer basis in automotive and robotics, and considerable 200mm and smaller wafer fab capacity for the MCU, logic, power, and MEMS and sensor devices key to SMART applications.

The SuperTHEATER highlights SEMICON Japan with seven forums in three days:

  • Opening keynotes on an “Alternative Future Envisioned by New Leaders” feature Motoi Ishibashi, CTO at Rhizomatiks, and Toru Nishikawa, president and CEO at Preferred Networks
  • Semiconductor Executive Forum with “Executive Viewpoints from Three Top SMART Era Companies: Toshiba Memory, GLOBALFOUNDIRES and Qualcomm
  • SEMI Market Forum, “Growing China and Global Semiconductor Ecosystem,” with presenters from IHS Markit and SEMI
  • SMART Transportation Summit, “Future Created by SMART Innovation,” with executives from Toyota, Honda, Denso, Bosch and Infinion
  • SMART Technology Forum, “The Front Line of AI,” with speakers from The University of Tokyo, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services and DefinedCrowd
  • Manufacturing Innovation Forum, “The Front Line of EUV lithography,” with ASML, Carl Zeiss and Xilinx
  • Mirai Vision Forum, “Technology and the Future of the Body,” with speakers from Leave a Nest, MELTIN MMI and Man-Machine Synergy Effectors

SMART Application Zone

On the SEMICON Japan show floor, 70 companies will exhibit in the new SMART Application Zone in East Hall 3. Connecting SMART industries with the semiconductor supply chain, the SMART Application Zone will showcase emerging technologies and vertical product applications generating new semiconductor demand across SMART Transportation and SMART Manufacturing. Key exhibitors include:

  • SMART Transportation – Bosch, Tesla Motors and Toyota Motor
  • SMART Manufacturing – IBM, Japan Semiconductor, Lapis Semiconductor, Microsoft, NEC, Preferred Networks, Sony, SAS and SIEMENS

Register now for SEMICON Japan. For a detailed agenda, please see the “SEMICON Japan Schedule-at-a-Glance.

Ever-growing data generation driven by mobile devices, the cloud, the IoT , and big data, as well as novel AI applications, all part of the megatrends, requires continuous advancements in memory technologies. Emerging NVM takes benefit of this dynamic ecosystem.

After more than 15 years in development, PCM, one of the emerging NVM technologies, has finally taken off thanks to the strong involvement of two leading companies, Micron and Intel, announces Yole Développement (Yole). The growth mainly arises from stand-alone applications. “Although momentum is building around emerging NVM for embedded applications, stand-alone memories will be the dominant market, which will be mainly driven by SCM enterprise and client applications,” comments Simone Bertolazzi, PhD, Technology & Market Analyst at Yole.

The market research and strategy consulting company Yole proposes today a technology & market survey dedicated to the emerging non-volatile memory technologies and markets, Emerging Non-Volatile Memory.

Yole and its partners System Plus Consulting and Knowmade, deeply investigate the memory business. The Group set up this year valuable memory services and reports to deliver world class research, data and insight. The emerging NVM report is part of them.

“With our memory activities including a dedicated webcasts program covering DRAM & NAND and emerging NVM, Yole Group of Companies provides valuable expertise and knowledge to its clients and allow them to understand the evolution of this competitive industry,” asserts Emilie Jolivet, Director, Semiconductor & Software from Yole.

The emerging NVM report is a comprehensive analysis of the semiconductor memory ecosystem with the following technologies (STT-) MRAM, RRAM and PCM, plus an introduction to standard memory, flash NAND, DRAM, NVDIMMs. It provides a deep understanding of the NVM applications and details the related market forecasts until 2023. NVM technologies are well described with the companies involved. In this new report, Yole’s Semiconductor & Software team highlights the competitive landscape with supply chain, market positioning and market shares analysis.
What is the status of the emerging NVM business? Yole Group of Companies invite you to enter in the memory world.

Since its latest edition, Yole’s analysts point out today market evolution and technical innovations. According to Yann de Charentenay, Senior Technology & Market Analyst at Yole, DRAM scaling will continue in the next five years, though at slower pace. NAND density will keep increasing thanks to continuous advancements in 3D integration approaches. And emerging NVM will not replace NAND and DRAM but they will rather complement them in “combined” memory solutions. In addition, SCM will be the main emerging NVM market and will be dominated by 3DXPoint for the next 5 years.
From a technology point of view, (STT-) MRAM is gaining momentum for embedded MCU applications since all big foundries are getting involved in this area. Stand-alone RRAM will try to catch market share to PCM on SCM applications. And emerging NVM sales will grow by more than one order of magnitude in the next three years, thanks to SCM applications.

In parallel, Yole’s team identified an increased foundry involvement in (STT-) MRAM and RRAM market segment. Key players such as GlobalFoundries, TSMC, UMC, SMIC and Samsung Foundry Services develop a strong expertise with related capabilities to offer attractive services. This trend is showing a growing foundries’ interest in memory business. As an example, the leading semiconductor company, TSMC announced possible acquisition of a memory company. Moreover, analysts point out the growing number of players including Chinese companies.

In the stand-alone business, emerging NVMs will not replace DRAM and NAND but will be used in combination with them inside memory modules, e.g. SSDs, DIMMs, and NVDIMMs. In 2023, PCM will maintain its lead in the stand-alone memory market thanks to the increasing adoption of 3D XPoint as an enterprise and client SCM. It is worth noting that Samsung and Toshiba took a different strategic path by developing 3D NAND-based SCM solutions such as Z-NAND (Samsung) and XL-Flash (Toshiba, showcased in August 2018). However, these technologies will be used in enterprise SSDs and will not compete with DDR4-compatible Optane DIMMs, which we expect will represent more than 50% of overall 3D XPoint sales.

RRAM was expected to be the first stand-alone technology to compete with 3D XPoint, but it has suffered repeated delays due to technical challenges. We presume that RRAM could return in the race for SCM after 2020, and possibly start competing with NAND for mass storage applications. STT-MRAM, thanks to its high speed and high endurance, is promising for enterprise storage SCM. However, its success will be much lower compared to stand-alone PCM due to higher costs, greater fabrication complexity, and challenging scalability.

Compared to stand alone, the embedded emerging NVM market is relatively small, representing ~3% of the emerging NVM market in 2017. The market is dominated today by RRAM, since only a few RRAM based MCUs are available on the market. However, all top foundries are now getting ready with 28/22nm technology processes for STTMRAM whereas RRAM adoption has been delayed by approximately two years by SMIC and UMC.

Therefore, we expect that STT-MRAM will be the first to take-off in the coming years and will lead the embedded emerging NVM market, especially MCUs, which represent the most important embedded segment. Emerging memory will first replace eFlash, which is facing major scaling challenges due to rising fabrication complexity/costs for technology nodes ≤ 28nm. The adoption of STT-MRAM as an embedded cache memory (SRAM or eDRAM) in high-end processors and mobile application processors (AP) will occur later due to more strict scalability requirements (≤ 14nm).

AI on the edge is the most innovative application for embedded emerging NVM. Crossbar recently demonstrated various AI applications, i.e. face recognition, through the use of RRAM chips. We expect that such RRAM-based AI devices will enter the market after 2021.

Yole Group of Companies leverage decades of industry experience while partnering with its clients to make sure they are consistently well-informed on this dynamic memory market. These years were indeed impressive, not only in terms of revenues, but also in pricing and capital expenditure. Mike Howard, VP of DRAM & Memory Research and Walt Coon, VP of NAND & Memory Research at Yole describe in a dedicated interview published last week, the memory ecosystem and its players, highlighting the latest technology advancements and the future evolutions of the market: click Memory business: what’s next?.