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Semiconductors lie at the heart of many of the electronic devices that govern our daily lives. The proper functioning of semiconductor devices relies on their internally generated electric fields. Being able to measure these fields on the nanoscale is crucial for the development of next-generation electronics, but present techniques have been restricted to measurements of the electric field at a semiconductor’s surface. A group of Takayuki Iwasaki, Mutsuko Hatano and colleagues at the Tokyo Institute of Technology, the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) and Toshiharu Makino at the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) has reported a new method for sensing internal electric fields at the interior of operating semiconductor devices. The technique exploits the response of an artificially introduced single electron spin to variations in its surrounding electric field, and enabled the researchers to study a semiconductor diode subject to bias voltages of up to 150 V.

Left: Schematic of the structure of the NV center. Middle: Confocal fluorescence image of a single NV center in the device. Right: Schematic of the measurement configuration. Credit: Tokyo Institute of Technology

Left: Schematic of the structure of the NV center. Middle: Confocal fluorescence image of a single NV center in the device. Right: Schematic of the measurement configuration. Credit: Tokyo Institute of Technology

Iwasaki and co-workers applied their method to diamond, a so-called wide-band-gap semiconductor in which the electric fields can become very strong — a property important for low-loss electronic applications. Diamond has the advantage that it easily accommodates nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers, a type of point defect that arises when two neighboring carbon atoms are removed from the diamond lattice and one of them is replaced by a nitrogen atom. NV centers can be routinely created in diamond by means of ion implantation. A nearby electric field affects an NV center’s energy state, which in turn can be probed by a method called optically detected magnetic resonance (ODMR).

The researchers first fabricated a diamond p-i-n diode (an intrinsic diamond layer sandwiched between an electron- and a hole-doped layer) embedded with NV centers. They then localized an NV center in the bulk of the i-layer, several hundreds of nanometers away from the interface, and recorded its ODMR spectrum for increasing bias voltages. From these spectra, values for the electric field could be obtained using theoretical formulas. The experimental values were then compared with numerical results obtained with a device simulator and found to be in good agreement — confirming the potential of NV centers as local electric-field sensors.

Iwasaki and colleagues explain that the experimentally determined value for the electric field around a given NV center is essentially the field’s component perpendicular to the direction of the NV center — aligned along one of four possible directions in the diamond lattice. They reason that a regular matrix of implanted NV centers should enable reconstructing the electric field with a spatial resolution of about 10nm by combining with super-resolution techniques, which is promising for studying more complex devices in further studies.

The researchers also point out that electric-field sensing is not only relevant for electronic devices, but also for electrochemical applications: the efficiency of electrochemical reactions taking place between a semiconductor and a solution depends on the former’s internal electric field. In addition, Iwasaki and co-workers note that their approach need not be restricted to NV centers in diamond: similar single-electron-spin structures exist in other semiconductors like e.g. silicon carbide.

Background: Wide-band-gap semiconductors

Semiconducting materials feature a so-called band gap: an energy range wherein no accessible energy levels exist. In order for a semiconductor to conduct, electrons must acquire sufficient energy to overcome the band gap; controlling electronic transitions across the band gap forms the basis of semiconducting device action. Typical semiconductors like silicon or gallium arsenide have a band gap of the order of 1 electron volt (eV). Wide-band-gap semiconductors, like diamond or silicon carbide, have a larger band gap — values as high as 3-5 eV are not uncommon.

Due to their large band gap, wide-band-gap semiconductors can operate at temperatures over 300 °C. In addition, they can sustain high voltages and currents. Because of these properties, wide-band-gap semiconductors have many applications, including light-emitting diodes, transducers, alternative-energy devices and high-power components. For further development of these and other future applications, it is essential to be able to characterize wide-band-gap devices in operation. The technique proposed by Iwasaki and colleagues for measuring the electric field generated in a wide-band-gap semiconductor subject to large bias voltages is therefore a crucial step forward.

Nitrogen-vacancy centers

Diamond consists of carbon atoms arranged on a lattice where each atom has four neighbors forming a tetrahedron. The diamond lattice is prone to defects; one such defect is the nitrogen-vacancy (NV) center, which can be thought of as resulting from replacing a carbon atom with a nitrogen atom and removing one neighboring carbon atom. The energy level of an NV center lies in the band gap of diamond but is sensitive to its local environment. In particular, the so-called nuclear hyperfine structure of an NV center depends on its surrounding electric field. This dependence is well understood theoretically, and was exploited by Iwasaki and co-workers: detecting changes in an NV center’s hyperfine structure enabled them to obtain values for the local electric field. A major advantage of this approach is that it allows monitoring the field within the material — not just at the surface, for which methods had already been developed.

Optically-detected magnetic resonance

For probing the nuclear hyperfine structure of an NV center in the bulk of the diamond-based device, Iwasaki and colleagues employed optically detected magnetic resonance (ODMR): by irradiating the sample with laser light, the NV center was optically excited, after which the magnetic resonance spectrum could be recorded. An electric field makes the ODMR resonance split; the experimentally detected split width provides a measure for the electric field.

Samsung Electronics and Apple remained the top two semiconductor chip buyers in 2016, representing 18.2 percent of the total worldwide market, according to Gartner, Inc. (see Table 1). Samsung and Apple together consumed $61.7 billion of semiconductors in 2016, an increase of $0.4 billion from 2015.

“This is the sixth consecutive year that Samsung Electronics and Apple have topped the semiconductor consumption table,” said Masatsune Yamaji, principal research analyst at Gartner. “While both companies continue to exert considerable influence on technology and price trends for the wider semiconductor industry, their impact has lessened due to falling expectations for future growth.”

Although Samsung Electronics experienced intense competition from Chinese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in various markets including smartphones, LCD TV and LCD panel through 2016, the company increased its design total available market (TAM) and came back as the global top design TAM company in 2016 with 9.3 percent share. Apple decreased its design TAM in 2016 for the first time since Gartner started design TAM research in 2007, ending the year with 8.8 percent share of the market. The iPad did not sell well through 2016 and Apple also lost market share in the PC market.

Table 1. Preliminary Ranking of Top 10 Companies by Semiconductor Design TAM, Worldwide, 2016 (Millions of Dollars)

2015 Ranking

2016Ranking

Company

 2015

 2016

Growth (%) 2015-2016

2016 Market Share (%)

2

1

Samsung Electronics

30,343

31,667

4.4

9.3

1

2

Apple

30,885

29,989

-2.9

8.8

4

3

Dell

10,606

13,308

25.5

3.9

3

4

Lenovo

13,535

12,847

-5.1

3.8

6

5

Huawei

7,597

9,886

30.1

2.9

5

6

HP Inc.

8,673

8,481

-2.2

2.5

8

7

Hewlett Packard Enterprises

6,485

6,206

-4.3

1.8

7

8

Sony

6,892

6,071

-11.9

1.8

21

9

BBK Electronics

2,515

5,818

131.4

1.7

9

10

LG Electronics

5,502

5,172

-6.0

1.5

Others

211,736

210,238

-0.7

61.9

Total

334,768

339,684

1.5

100.0

Note: Numbers may not add to totals shown because of rounding.
Source: Gartner (February 2017)

Nine of the top 10 companies in 2015 remained in the top 10 in 2016. Cisco Systems dropped out of the top 10 in 2016 to be replaced by Chinese smartphone OEM, BBK Electronics, which grew rapidly in 2016. The top 10 now consists of four companies from the U.S., three companies from China, two from South Korea and one from Japan. This is the first time that three Chinese companies have ranked in the top 10, proving that even with the slowing macroeconomic situation in China, the importance of the Chinese electronics market is increasing.

“Even though the influence on the semiconductor industry of the top two strongest OEMs is weakening, the combined design TAM of the top 10 companies outperformed the average growth rate of the total semiconductor market in 2016,” said Mr. Yamaji. “However, semiconductor chip vendors can no longer secure their businesses by relying on a few strong customers because market share changes much faster these days. BBK Electronics grew very fast in 2016 and increased its design TAM, but this extraordinarily fast growth also underlines how volatile the businesses in China can be. Technology product marketing leaders at semiconductor chip vendors need to take the risks of their major customers into account, and always try to diversify their customer base.”

The newly released 2017 20th anniversary edition of The McClean Report contains an analysis of the three phases of China’s attempt to gain a stronger presence in the IC industry (Figure 1).  The analysis of Phase 3 includes a long list of the successes and setbacks that the Chinese have faced since initiating this strategy in 2014.

China’s government has a long-term goal to become self-sufficient with regards to IC devices.  Its “Made in China 2025” (MIC 2025) plan was published by the China State Council in May of 2015. The milestones in MIC 2025 are for China to be 40% self-sufficient in IC devices in 2020 and 70% in 2025.  In reality, it is naive to believe that being 40%, 70%, or whatever percentage less than 100%, is even close to being self-sufficient in the IC industry. In just about every case, the lack of just one low-value IC (e.g., a mixed-signal analog device), process material (e.g., a specific chemical or gas used in fabricating ICs), or package type will stop the entire electronic system from being produced and shipped.

Figure 1

Figure 1

As an example, in the early 1980s, the U.S. government attempted to make sure that every wafer processing and packaging material as well as every piece of semiconductor processing equipment that was used to make military ICs have at least one U.S. source. Even more than 30 years ago, when IC processing was much less complex than it is now, this program had to be abandoned due to the impossible task of making sure there was a U.S. source for literally thousands of items. The bottom line is that anything less than 100% self-sufficiency in the IC industry is not self-sufficient.

The success of MIC 2025 is fundamentally dependent upon two things—funding and technology. The goals of MIC 2025 have almost no chance of success without strong results in both of these areas. IC Insights considers each one to have equal weight on the potential final outcome.

There is near-unanimous consensus that funding will not be a hindrance for the potential success of MIC 2025. China’s National Government has approved approximately $20 billion of funding support for its IC industry programs with almost another $100 billion of possible support coming from local Chinese governments, provinces, and private investors. In total, the tens of billions of dollars of funding now targeting the IC industry is probably sufficient to construct at least 10 high-volume 300mm IC production fabrication facilities. It should be noted that regardless of what happens with China-based IC production in the long run, IC equipment companies are in prime position to benefit from this massive spending spree over the next few years.

IC Insights believes that the huge roadblock standing in the way of the success of MIC 2025 is the ability of the Chinese to acquire the IC technology to be used in the newly funded fabs. Beginning in 2014, the Chinese sought to acquire technology by acquiring existing IC suppliers. The Chinese had some early success in acquiring companies like ISSI and OmniVision, but most governments are now on “high alert” with regard to China’s IC industry ambitions and future foreign IC company acquisitions will be very difficult to complete. Essentially, the window of opportunity for the Chinese to attain IC technology through foreign company acquisitions is now closed.

Although the amount of money reported to be allocated toward constructing the new indigenous Chinese company IC fabs has been massive, the technology announced to be used in these fabs has in every case been at least two generations behind what the market leaders in that segment are currently using or will be using when the fab opens. Some examples are shown below.

  • XMC (purchased by Tsinghua Unigroup in July 2016 and put in a holding company called Yangtze
  • River Storage Technology)—32-layer 3D NAND technology.
  • Fujian Jin Hua Integrated Circuit—32nm DRAM technology.
  • Shanghai Huali (HLMC)—28nm foundry logic capability.

While all of the currently announced China IC fabs seem to be more than adequately funded, none of them appear to possess the IC technology needed to compete with the leaders in their respective product segments.

There have recently been reports that the Chinese companies building the new fabs discussed above are hiring IC engineers from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Intel’s China-based IC facilities. This method has been mentioned as one way for Chinese companies to “develop their own” IC technology as these engineers bring IC process knowledge/experience acquired at their former employer with them. In IC Insights’ opinion, this is a very dangerous way to “develop” IC process technology.

In 2003, in China-based pure-play foundry SMIC’s second year of production, TSMC filed a lawsuit alleging that SMIC hired more than 100 former TSMC employees and asked them to provide SMIC with TSMC trade secrets. Moreover, TSMC alleged that SMIC infringed on five of TSMC’s IC process technology patents (later expanded to eight patents). In early 2005, SMIC and TSMC settled the lawsuit with SMIC paying TSMC $175 million and TSMC gaining an 8% stake in SMIC. Prior to the settlement, a California jury returned a verdict against SMIC in a U.S. lawsuit filed by TSMC.

With the stakes so high, once the newly opened Chinese-owned memory fabs begin production, expect the reverse engineering teams at Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Intel, Toshiba, and Western Digital (SanDisk) to shift into high gear by taking apart the new Chinese DRAM and 3D NAND devices to determine which of their patents are being infringed upon by these new memory players. IC Insights believes that with the decades of high-volume DRAM and NAND flash production history of the major memory suppliers, it will be almost impossible to develop new DRAM and NAND flash technology without infringing on numerous patents within these companies’ extensive portfolios.

In 2016, IC production in China (including foreign companies) represented 11.6% of its $112 billion IC market, up less than two percentage points from 9.8% five years earlier in 2011. Moreover, China-based IC production is forecast to exhibit a very strong 2016-2021 CAGR of 18%. However, considering that China-based IC production was only $13.0 billion in 2016, this growth will start from a relatively small base.

Given the sheer size of the expected expenditures for new Chinese IC facilities, as well as an expanding presence of foreign IC producers (e.g., Intel, Samsung, etc.), IC Insights believes there will be a significant improvement in the share percentage of China-based IC production through 2025 (Figure 2), but nowhere near the levels forecast in the MIC 2025 plan. As shown, IC Insights forecasts that this share will increase to 17.0% in 2020 and to 25.0% in 2025, each less than half of the original MIC 2025 goals.

Figure 2

Figure 2

 

Commodity prices, supplier viability, and geopolitical concerns top the list of risks sourcing professionals face in 2017, according to survey from IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

Findings from the Trends in Global Sourcing Survey, the fifth annual survey of global procurement and purchasing executives which assesses the risk environment and sourcing trends, indicate that support for China as a low-cost sourcing destination is waning.

“The share of respondents who agree that China is a low-cost sourcing destination dipped below 50 percent for the first time in 2016,” said Paul Robinson, economist at IHS Markit. “This was down markedly from 70 percent in the 2012 survey.”

“Taken together with continued support for the country as a sourcing destination, the survey signals the arrival of China as a hub, or even the hub, of global supply chains rather than a mere cheap outsourcing destination,” Robinson continued.

China, India, and other nations in Asia continue to be the biggest winners in insourcing, with each showing strong increases. The developed world, particularly the European Union and the United States, show the weakest results, with less than a quarter of respondents planning to increase sourcing in either region. A rare bright spot outside of Asia was the continued growth in Mexico, where 26 percent of respondents are looking to increase sourcing, up from 20 percent a year ago.

chinas role

The survey respondents see the financial costs of supply chain disruptions increasing, with 19 percent of respondents saying that it was significantly increasing. This represents a reversal of the 2015 results when just one percent of respondents had that view. Less than two percent of respondents in the 2016 survey viewed the risk as decreasing at all.

By Denny McGuirk, SEMI president and CEO

“Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.”  Attributed to Ralph Waldo Emerson, this could be the credo of our industry.  Moore’s Law has created $13 trillion of market value and we’ve been pioneering the way forward – since even before Gordon Moore made the famous “observation” that became Moore’s Law more than 50 years ago.  Our industry paved the road forward with advancements in design, materials, processing, equipment, and integration, traveling at the speed of exponential growth number in transistors per chip (doubling approximately every two years).

Today, globally, we’re shipping more than one trillion ICs per year!  Leading-edge chips boast more than 10 billion transistors at the advanced 10nm (gate length) technology node and are made with 3D FinFET architectures formed by 193nm wavelength immersion multi-patterning lithography.  It’s become a very challenging – and very expensive – road (a single lithography tool alone costs in the tens of millions of dollars).  The companies building the road ahead are bigger and fewer as massive bets now need to be placed on new fabs costing more than $5 billion and even $10 billion and where a new single chip design alone costs more than $150 million to bring into production.

What follows, in Part 1 of this two-part article, is a quick look back at the industry in 2016 and the road ahead in 2017 followed by what SEMI achieved in 2016 and where SEMI’s road will lead in 2017 to keep pace our industry charging forward where there is no path. Part 2 (next week’s Global Update) will focus on SEMI 2020 initiatives.

A look back at 2016: “Straight roads do not make skillful drivers”

2016 was definitely not a straight road; truly it was a wild ride – so, SEMI members have become extremely skilled drivers. The semiconductor manufacturing industry had a slow first half with pessimism building throughout the first quarter, but by April semiconductors bottomed and NAND investment and a slate of new China projects drove a strong second half.  For semiconductor equipment, SEMI’s statistics indicate global sales in 2015 were $36.5 billion and 2016 came in at $39.7 billion, ultimately ending up about 9 percent.  For reference semiconductor materials in 2015 was $24.0 billion and 2016 came in at $24.6 billion, up nearly 2.6 percent year-over year (YoY).

But, it turns out, that’s not half the story.  2016 was full of surprises.  At the geopolitical level, Brexit, an impeachment in South Korea, and a Trump win were wholly unanticipated and leave a lot of questions as to how that road ahead might look.  In technology, the Galaxy Note 7 mobile phone became an airline hazard announcement and stalwarts like Yahoo! faded into the background (now part of Verizon).  In part due to challenges of the road ahead (and because the cost of capital remained low) M&A fever continued in semiconductors with more than $100B in deals announced in 2016.

It was an astonishing year for combinations with huge deal announcements such as Qualcomm buying NXP for $47 billion and SoftBank buying ARM for $32 billion.  Meanwhile, mergers in the equipment and materials space continued, to name a few notables ASML’s acquisition of Hermes Microvision, DuPont and Dow announcing the intent to merge (announced December 2015, but still in the works), and Lam Research and KLA-Tencor ultimately calling off their deal due to complications of regulatory pushback.  The extended supply chain was mixing things up, too, with acquisitions like the announcement by Siemens to acquire Mentor Graphics.  It has been very active, overall.  This was the second year of semiconductor M&A deals valued at more than $100 billion, a signal that size and scale is critical to build the road ahead.

A look ahead: “Difficult roads often lead to beautiful destinations”

With all the talk about roads, it’s no surprise that the automotive segment is gathering momentum as a strong growth driver for the electronics supply chain.  Not only is there increasing electronics content in cars for comfort and infotainment, but also for assisted and autonomous driving and electric vehicles which are ushering in a new era of electronics consumption.

Along with automotive, IoT (Internet of Things), 5G, AR/VR (Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality), and AI (Artificial Intelligence) round out a set of powerful IC and electronics applications drivers (see figure).  Per an IHS Study, 5G alone may enable as much as $12.3 trillion in goods and services in 2035. Gartner’s most recent forecast is cause for optimism further down the electronics manufacturing supply chain.  Gartner see IC revenue growing from 2016’s $339.7 billion to 2017’s $364.1 billion up 7.2 percent and growing further in 2018 at $377.9 billion up 3.8 percent.  For semiconductor equipment, SEMI’s forecast indicates 2015 was $36.5 billion, 2016 will come in at $39.7 billion, and 2017 is projected to be $43.4 billion, pointing to both 2016 and 2017 experiencing approximately 9 percent YoY growth.

In 2017, China investment is projected to continue as a major driver, likely consuming over 16 percent of the total global equipment investment (second only to South Korea).  SEMI is currently tracking 20 new fab projects.  Investments come from both multinationals and local Chinese ventures.  A sign of the rise of China is China’s upward production share trend of its own IC consumption market (IC Insights): 8 percent in 2009, 13 percent in 2015, and 21 percent in 2020. Further down in the electronics supply chain, fab equipment related spending in China will rise to more than $10 billion per year by 2018 and remain at that level or above for subsequent years.

NAND will continue to be a major driver with 3D NAND investment leading the way.  Silicon in Package (SiP) and heterogeneous integration will increasingly be solutions to augment traditional feature scaling to fit more transistors into less space at lower costs.  Materials innovations will be relied upon to solve front-end and packaging challenges while standard materials will be the focus of increased efficiencies and cost reduction. 200mm fab capacity will grow and stimulate new 200mm investment with upside driven by power devices and MEMS segments.  Investment in foundry MEMS will grow by an estimated 285 percent (2015 to 2017).

“There are far better things ahead than any we leave behind”

SEMI, the global non-profit association connecting and representing the worldwide electronics manufacturing supply chain, has been growing with the industry for 47 years.  SEMI has evolved over the years, but it has remained as the central point to connect.  Whether connecting for business, connecting for collective action, or connecting to synchronize technology, SEMI connects for member growth and prosperity.

As a reminder, here are SEMI’s mission, vision, and 2020 strategic focus areas.

  • Mission — our focus for the next five years
    • SEMI provides industry stewardship and engages our members to advance the interests of the global electronics manufacturing supply chain.
  • Vision — what we stand for
    • SEMI promotes the development of the global electronics manufacturing supply chain and positively influences the growth and prosperity of its members.  SEMI advances the mutual business interests of its membership and promotes a free and open global marketplace.
  • Members’ Growth — 2020 strategic focus
    • SEMI enables member growth opportunities by evolving SEMI communities and building new communities across the global electronics manufacturing supply chain via cooperation, partnerships, and integration.
  • Members’ Prosperity — 2020 strategic focus
    • SEMI enables members to prosper by building extended supply chain collaboration forums providing opportunities to increase value while optimizing the supply chain for SEMI members.

Our industry is in the midst of a vast change.  To deal with the escalating complexity (making a semiconductor chip now uses the great majority of the periodic table of the elements) and capital cost, many companies have had to combine, consolidate, and increasingly collaborate along the length of the electronics manufacturing supply chain.

Some companies have broadened their businesses by investing in adjacent segments such as Flexible Hybrid Electronics (FHE), MEMS, Sensors, LEDs, PV, and Display.  Lines are blurring between segments – PCBs have morphed into flexible substrates, SiP is both a device and a system.  Electronics integrators are rapidly innovating and driving new form factors, new requirements, and new technologies which require wide cooperation across the length of the electronics manufacturing supply chain and across a breadth of segments.

The business is changing and SEMI’s members are changing.  When SEMI’s members change, SEMI must change, too – and SEMI has, and is.  SEMI developed a transformation plan, SEMI 2020, which I wrote about at the beginning of 2016.  We’re well on our way on this path and in next week’s e-newsletter Global Update, I’d like to update you on what we’ve accomplished and what’s to come.

Each year, Solid State Technology turns to industry leaders to hear viewpoints on the technological and economic outlook for the upcoming year. Read through these expert opinions on what to expect in 2017.

Driving the industry forward with materials engineering

Raja_Prabu_fullPrabu Raja, vice president and general manager, Patterning and Packaging Group, Applied Materials, Inc.

Over the past few years, the industry has made remarkable progress in bringing 3D chip architectures to volume production. In 2017, we will continue to see exciting technology innovations for scaling 3D NAND devices to 64 layers, ramping the 10nm process node into volume manufacturing and increasing the adoption of highly integrated chip packages.

With the transition to the 3D and sub-10nm era, the semiconductor world is changing from lithography-based scaling to materials-enabled scaling. This shift requires multiple new materials and capabilities in selective processing.

The magnitude and pace of these changes are truly disruptive. For example, with 3D NAND materials innovations for hard mask deposition and hard mask etch are essential. The challenge is to build high aspect ratio vertical structures with uniform profiles from the top to the bottom as more layers are added. Selective removal processes can remove targeted materials in vertical and horizontal structures without damage or residue throughout the stack.

For logic/foundry, the introduction of the 10nm process node in volume manufacturing brings significant growth in the number of patterning steps. This trend will increase even more for 7nm and below designs. Patterning these advanced nodes requires innovative etch capabilities to deliver feature-scale uniformity with low line edge roughness. Selective processes and alternative manufacturing schemes will also be needed as the industry seeks solutions for layer-to-layer vertical alignment. We expect this to result in a two-fold increase in the number of materials to be deposited and removed.

Finally, the industry will continue to adopt new and improved packaging schemes for enabling increased device performance, lower power consumption and to deliver desired form factors. In 2016, we saw the volume adoption of Fan-Out packaging in mobile devices and this trend is expected to grow further in 2017. The high performance computing segment will pursue 2.5D interposer and/or 3D TSV packaging schemes for higher memory bandwidth, lower latency and better power efficiency.

Applied Materials is focused on delivering game-changing selective process technologies and materials innovations to help solve the industry’s toughest challenges.

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More than two dozen acquisition agreements were announced by semiconductor companies worldwide in 2016 with a combined value of $98.5 billion compared to the record-high $103.3 billion in purchases struck in 2015, when over 30 deals were reached, according to a summary and analysis in IC Insights’ new 2017 McClean Report.  The dollar value of merger and acquisition agreements in 2015 and 2016 were both about eight times greater than the $12.6 billion annual average of M&A announcements in the five previous years (2010-2014), says the new report, which becomes available in January 2017. Nearly half of the 15 largest semiconductor acquisitions in history were announced in the 2015 2016 period, according to a ranking of M&A transactions over $2 billion in the 2017 McClean Report (Figure 1). A total of 27 semiconductor acquisition agreements have had dollar values of $2 billion or more since 1999.

Figure 1

Figure 1

IC Insights’ ranking and acquisition data cover semiconductor suppliers, wafer foundries, and businesses licensing intellectual property (IP) for integrated circuit designs, but excludes transactions for fab equipment and material companies, chip packaging and testing operations, and design automation firms. Overall, seven of the industry’s $2 billion-plus semiconductor acquisitions occurred in 2015 and five took place in 2016, with three each being announced in 2014, 2011, and 2006, two in 2012, and one each in 2013, 2009, 2000, and 1999.

Semiconductor M&A greatly accelerated in 2015 and continued to be high in 2016 as companies turned to acquisitions to offset slow growth in major end-use applications (such as smartphones, personal computers, and tablets). In the last two years, acquisitions have been driven by companies aiming to expand into huge new markets, especially the Internet of Things, wearable electronics, and highly intelligent embedded systems, such as automated driver-assist features in cars and autonomous vehicles in the future. China’s goal of boosting its domestic semiconductor industry has added fuel to the M&A movement.

While Chinese moves to buy foreign semiconductor suppliers and assets grabbed a great deal of attention and scrutiny by governments wanting to protect national security and industries, U.S. businesses acquiring other companies, product lines, technologies, and assets accounted for 52% of the 2015-2016 M&A value, or about $104.5 billion (Figure 2). Asia-Pacific companies were second among those making semiconductor acquisitions with 23% of the $201.5 billion two-year total, or $46.4 billion. Within the Asia-Pacific region, China represented 4% of the total, or $8.3 billion.

Figure 2

Figure 2

Figure 2 also shows a breakdown the 2015-2016 acquisition agreements by semiconductor business types with the purchase of IDMs or parts of those companies being nearly 39% of the two-year total and takeovers of fabless chip suppliers, their product lines, and/or assets representing 45%. Acquisitions of semiconductor-design intellectual property suppliers and IP assets accounted for nearly 16% of the 2015-2016 M&A value while purchase agreements for wafer-foundry businesses and assets represented just 0.2% of the total.

The global market for power semiconductors used in cars and light passenger vehicles will grow by more in $3 billion USD in the next six years, according to new analysis released today by IHS Markit(Nasdaq: INFO).

In the report, entitled “Power Semiconductors in Automotive – 2017”, forecasts the total market for power semiconductors (discretes, power modules and power ICs) to increase from $5.5 billion in 2016 to more than $8.5 billion in 2022.  Revenue will grow at an annual rate of 7.5 percent from 2015 to 2022, the report predicts.

“Increasing electrification in vehicles generally – and in hybrid and electric vehicles specifically – is energizing the market for power semiconductors in vehicles”, said Richard Eden, senior analyst, power semiconductors for IHS Markit. “Staying connected via smartphones and tablets is the modern way of life and to this end, today’s car drivers are opting for Bluetooth, cellular technologies and other telematics functions. All these features require power semiconductors to distribute and control power through vehicles.”

Also contributing to the rise of power semiconductors, the report notes, is the automotive industry’s mission to offer self-driving, ‘green’ and connected cars in the next decade. According to IHS Markit, intermediate safety milestones such as automatic emergency braking (AEB) and platooning are necessary to realize a road system that will accommodate self-driving cars. Other factors in the trend toward more power semiconductors: the need for more fuel-efficient systems, a higher proportion of electric vehicles, and more electronic content per vehicle as required for improved vehicle emission levels.

Powertrain category to lead the way

In studying the automotive electronics market, IHS Markit categorizes five domains on a vehicle: Body and Convenience, Chassis and Safety, Infotainment, Powertrain and Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS). Of these, Powertrain accounted for 47 percent of the total market for automotive power semiconductors in 2015, the report indicated.

Anticipated growth in sales of hybrid and electric vehicles in the next few years will spur power semiconductor sales to climb by CAGR 9.6 percent from 2015 to 2022 across all vehicles, taking Powertrain’s market share up to 54 percent of the total market, according to the report.  Discrete IGBT power transistors account for most of Powertrain power semiconductor revenue, but increased integration of discretes into modules will cause IGBT power module sales to increase at a much faster rate.

According to the IHS Markit report, the Chassis and Safety category represents the second most-valuable automotive domain for power semiconductors, accounting for 24 percent of the total market in 2015. In contrast with Powertrain, the use of power semiconductors in Chassis and Safety will only grow with CAGR of 3.1 percent from 2015 to 2022, the report says. The biggest user of power devices in this domain are applications such as electric power steering, anti-lock braking system and electronic stability control, airbags and tire pressure monitoring, which are already relatively well-established in vehicles.

The domains of Body and Convenience and Infotainment only accounted for 14 percent and 11 percent of the total automotive power semiconductor market in 2015, respectively. Both categories are expected to grow with a CAGR of around 4 to 5 percent from 2015 to 2022, the report predicts. At present, the smallest domain is ADAS, with only 5 percent of the total market in 2015. However, ADAS is forecast to see the fastest growth of all of the five domains, growing with a CAGR of 16 percent from 2015 to 2022. ADAS will see a rapid increase in the number of sensors, cameras and interconnectivity systems in cars, and all will need power semiconductors in their power control circuitry.

A closer look at value

Discrete power semiconductors, the report points out, provide the highest average value per car. This is not surprising as they have the lowest average sales price and are used in even the simplest, cheapest automotive electronic systems like engine, transmission control units, electrified oil pumps and power systems.

Power ICs provide slightly less average value per car. They are more expensive and newer, so are more prevalent in high-end vehicles and more modern car designs, which contain more features, like ADAS, for example. Power modules have the smallest average value per car because their use is restricted to larger, high-end vehicles and to hybrid and electric vehicles only.

Fire, rain, and M&A 


January 19, 2017

By SEMI staff

The expert panel, “The Future of M&A in the Semiconductor Industry,” was a hot topic at SEMI’s Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) conference on January 11.  So hot, it seems, that midway through the panel discussion, a fire alarm triggered and the whole group stepped outside for a quick breather.  Fortunately, this came at a break in the almost nonstop rain – that felt as though the Ritz Carlton might wash off the bluffs of Half Moon Bay.

fire rain

The rain couldn’t put a damper on the mood, though.  Forecasters throughout the conference revised upwards their 2016 results and 2017 forecasts (http://www.semi.org/en/semi-iss-2017-uncovers-new-growth-forecast-upgrades-1) and Diane Bryant, EVP and GM of Intel’s Data Center Group sparked the audience with an amazing keynote that made clear this is the best time ever to be in the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain.

But, how that industry might look in the future was the business of the M&A panel moderated by Robert Maire of Semiconductor Advisors with experts:

  • Patrick Ho, senior research analyst, Semiconductor Capital Equipment at Stifel Nicolaus
  • John Ippolito, VP Corporate Development at MKS Instruments
  • Israel Niv, former CEO of DCG Systems
  • Tom St. Dennis, chairman of the Board of FormFactor.

Will the huge deals of 2015 and 2016 continue?

Setting up the panel, Maire observed that 2015 and 2016 were huge in transaction size (over $100 billion announced in 2015), but while the values of the deals have jumped, the number of deals has remained fairly consistent over the past several years. Also, China has more significantly moved into the M&A market in 2015, in the range $4 to $5 billion.

It appears that M&A will continue, but not at the same pace as 2015 and 2016 due to increasing political, regulatory, and industry pushback.  In the equipment space, while big deals such as Advantest and Verigy were possible in 2011, the current climate has seen big deals falter including Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron; Lam Research and KLA-Tencor; and Aixtron and Fujian Grand Chip.

However, Maire observed that the motivations for M&A continue; for instance, Intel needs to offset a declining PC market and ramp IoT, VR, and Cloud activity and will likely consider M&A as part of its approach.  Similarly, opportunities for equipment companies to increase scale and size exist for process control companies and in the back-end segment where further consolidation appears necessary.

China becomes a player

China’s ambitions in M&A may have been complicated by recent events, but with a $150 billion investment fund there are likely more opportunities ahead.  China has stated the intent to move from producing just 10 percent of its IC consumption to 70 percent in ten years and catching up technologically by 2030.  While some see concerns given China’s investment and later pricing collapses in FPD, PV, and LED, others see China’s efforts to increase its indigenous production of ICs as similar to what has happened as the industry spread from U.S. and Europe to Japan, Taiwan, and Korea.

The panel responded to questions from Maire, questions submitted from the audience, and live audience questions.  Ho noted that big deals in semiconductor equipment appear, for the time being, to be difficult or over.  However, there is still low-hanging fruit and smaller deals.  There is a need to focus on scale and size because customers (IC manufacturers) are bigger and fewer.  For example, Form Factor’s combination with Cascade brought size and scale and enabled Form Factor to be more competitive.

The future for semiconductor equipment consolidation

Several questions revolved around where M&A would happen in the semiconductor equipment space.  There was general consensus that M&A of any of the “big five” (not named, but likely ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA-Tencor) were off the table in the short term due to both regulatory pressure and industry pushback given fears of overly strong supplier power.  Niv thought there were opportunities for consolidation in the metrology and process control space.  Ippolito thought there might be further consolidation opportunities in motion control.  St. Dennis thought there were opportunities throughout the whole supply chain.  He pointed out that the benefits of acquiring a good company were significant, including great talent (difficult and time consuming to develop organically), synergies in not just SG&A, but in technology and field organizations.

The role of private equity was raised.  Ippolito noted that the private market and private equity have roles to play in consolidation opportunities, noting the success of Atlas Copco with Edwards Vacuum and Oerlikon Leybold as an example.

Several questions focused on China.  Niv pointed out the industry needs to think about China similar to how they thought about Japan when Japan was emerging as an IC manufacturing power.  Partnering with Japanese companies was an effective strategy for many and brought long-term success in that market.  Ippolito thought that very large China deals might be off the table for a while, but smaller deals would likely go through.  He noted that $150 billion (the China investment fund) is a lot of money and that tends to find a way forward.

Size matters

The panel seemed to agree size matters.  Niv observed that deals have to be the right size to be digestible with a deal of 10 percent size ratios being easier than other ratios.  Niv noted that one cannot realistically aspire to be acquired by Applied Materials at a revenue of only $20 to $30 million.  For this size, he advised that you are better off getting there by first being an aggregator.  Ho expanded on this by noting that small cap equipment companies can’t attract the attention of the “big five.”  $200 million of revenue only gives the “big five” about a penny of accretion.  For MKS Instruments, the deal with Newport was positive because it added almost $1 in accretion and is an example of a better match in size.

It was a testament to the keen interest in the M&A panel that after the fire alarm evacuation, virtually everyone returned and the audience was nearly immediately again fully engaged in trying to understand what stamp M&A will next leave upon future of the industry.  If we learned anything in 2016, it is that surprises will happen (so it seems, fire alarms will ring when you least expect them).  And, predicting rain, like predicting which deals will go through in a fundamentally new geopolitical environment, will be a guessing game.  However, there’s no doubt that M&A will continue and the opportunities ahead of us will rewrite our industry map.

For information on SEMI, visit www.semi.org and follow SEMI on LinkedIn and Twitter. For the SEMI event calendar, visit www.semi.org/en/events.

This week, Future Market Insights (FMI) releases its latest report on the semiconductor assembly and testing services market. The global market for semiconductor assembly and testing services (SATS) will continue to be primarily driven by the surging demand for high-end packaging solutions. The global semiconductor assembly and testing services market will possibly reach a value of US$ 24.72 Bn by 2016 end. The market will gain continued traction communication vertical. Asia Pacific will remain the most attractive market for semiconductor assembly and testing services.

Increased demand for outsourced SATS or OSAT services will be a remarkable trend favoring the growth of the global SATS market. With the rapidly thriving consumer electronics industry, the demand for connectivity and mobility is also on the rise, which is foreseen to be an important booster to the demand for connected devices, eventually fostering the semiconductor assembly and testing services market. Rising adoption of multimedia technology devices is identified to be another factor bolstering the demand for SATS. A number of SATS providers offer value added services, such as in-house testing and high-end packaging, which will remain an important driver to the market growth. Several integrated design manufacturers are increasingly prioritising semiconductor assembly and testing services as a time-efficient alternative.

Moreover, rising demand for automotive safety systems is expected to be a strong factor providing impetus to the SATS market. Due to higher costs associated with larger wafer fabrication factory, manufacturers are largely inclined toward outsourcing semiconductor assembly and testing services to third party providers. Leading fabless companies will continue to outsource everything, including testing, assembly, and packaging of semiconductor. This will favour the market growth. Rising adoption of automotive electronics and promising emergence of next-generation electronic vehicles are likely to boost the market growth further.

However, high capital costs related to high-end packaging solution provision, volatility of prices in the market, and uncertainty in exchange rates will continue to pose a negative impact on the global SATS market growth.

By service, assembly and packaging segment will continue to be dominant over the testing segment, prominently driven by the rising demand for consumer electronics and advanced packaging solutions.

On the basis of packaging solution, the copper wire and gold wire bonding segment is expected to retain the leading segment position with over 53% market value share, accounting for the revenues of around US$ 13.24 Bn in 2016. However, the growth of this segment is likely to witness sluggish growth post-2016. The flip chip segment is foreseen to exhibit a robust growth rate, contributing around 18% share to the entire market revenues in 2016. This segment will witness an impressive Y-o-Y growth of 8.6% in 2017 over 2016.

Based on application, communication segment is projected to remain dominant, whereas consumer electronics application segment is likely to register a stellar growth rate in terms of Y-o-Y.

By regional analysis, the global semiconductor assembly and testing services market is segmented into four key markets viz. North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and Middle East and Africa. APAC will remain the dominant market with over 84% market value share in 2016 but is anticipated to witness a consistent Y-o-Y decline post-2016. On the other side, North America is likely to see a consistent gain in the Y-o-Y growth post-2016. This region will account for over 31% share of the market in 2016, in terms of revenues.

Some of the key companies operating in the global marketplace for semiconductor assembly and testing services (SATS), include Amkor Technologies Inc., ASE Group, Silicon Precision Industries Co. Ltd., STATS ChipPAC Ltd. (JCET), Psi Technologies Inc. (IMI), Powertech Technology Inc., Global Foundries, CORWIL Technology corporation, and Chipbond Technology Corporation.

Long-term Outlook: By 2021 end, the global semiconductor assembly and testing services (SATS) market is expected to account for US$ 39.05 Bn in terms of revenues.