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Worldwide semiconductor capital spending is projected to increase 2.9 percent in 2017, to $69.9 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. This is down from 5.1 percent growth in 2016 (see Table 1).

“The stronger growth in 2016 was fueled by Increased spending in late 2016 which can be attributed to a NAND flash shortage which was more severe in late 2016 and will persist though most of 2017. This is due to a better-than-expected market for smartphones, which is driving an upgrade of NAND spending in our latest forecast,” said David Christensen, senior research analyst at Gartner. “NAND spending increased by $3.1 billion in 2016 and several related wafer fab equipment segments showed stronger growth than our previous forecast. The thermal, track and implant segments in 2017 are expected to increase 2.5 percent, 5.6 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively.

Compared with early 2016, the semiconductor outlook has improved, particularly in memory, due to stronger pricing and a better-than-expected market for smartphones. An earlier-than-anticipated recovery in memory should lead to growth in 2017 and be slightly enhanced by changes in key applications.

Table 1: Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Spending and Equipment Spending Forecast, 2015-2020 (Millions of Dollars)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Semiconductor Capital Spending ($M)

 67,994.0

 69,936.6

 73,613.5

 78,355.6

 75,799.3

Growth (%)

5.1

2.9

5.3

6.4

-3.3

Wafer-Level Manufacturing Equipment ($M)

35,864.4

38,005.4

38,488.7

41,779.7

39,827.0

Growth (%)

7.9

6.0

1.3

8.6

-4.7

Wafer Fab Equipment ($M)

 34,033.2

 35,978.6

 36,241.1

 39,272.8

 37,250.4

Growth (%)

8.1

5.7

0.7

8.4

-5.1

Wafer-Level Packaging and Assembly Equipment ($M)

1,831.2

2,026.8

2,247.6

2,506.9

2,567.7

Growth (%)

3.9

10.7

10.9

11.5

2.8

Source: Gartner (January 2017)

Foundries continue to outgrow the overall semiconductor market with mobile processors from Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek and HiSilicon as the demand driver on leading-node wafers. In particular, fast 4G migration and more-powerful processors have resulted in larger die sizes than previous-generation application processors, requiring more 28 nanometer (nm), 16/14 nm and 10 nm wafers from foundries. Nonleading technology will continue to be strong from the integrated display driver controllers and fingerprint ID chips and active-matrix organic light-emitting diode (AMOLED) display driver integrated circuits (ICs).

This research is produced by Gartner’s Semiconductor Manufacturing program. This research program, which is part of the overall semiconductor research group, provides a comprehensive view of the entire semiconductor industry, from manufacturing to device and application market trends. Gartner clients can see more in “Forecast Analysis: Semiconductor Capital Spending and Manufacturing Equipment, Worldwide, 4Q16 Update.”

The pure-play foundry market is forecast to play an increasingly stronger role in the worldwide IC market during the next five years, according to IC Insights’ new 2017 McClean Report, which becomes available later this month.  The 20th anniversary edition of The McClean Report forecasts that the 2016-2021 pure-play IC foundry market will increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6%; growing from $50.0 billion in 2016 to $72.1 billion in 2021.

IC foundries have two main customers—fabless IC companies (e.g., Qualcomm, Nvidia, Xilinx, AMD, etc.) and IDMs (e.g., ON, ST, TI, Toshiba, etc.).  The success of fabless IC companies as well as the movement to more outsourcing by existing IDMs has fueled strong growth in IC foundry sales since 1998.  Moreover, an increasing number of mid-size companies are ditching their fabs in favor of the fabless business model.  A few examples include Fujitsu, IDT, LSI Corp. (now part of Avago), Avago (now Broadcom Ltd.), and AMD, which have all become fabless IC suppliers over the past few years.

Figure 1 shows the ranking of the top 10 pure-play foundries in 2016.  In 2016, the “Big 4” pure-play foundries (i.e., TSMC, GlobalFoundries, UMC, and SMIC) held an imposing 85% share of the total worldwide pure-play IC foundry market.  As shown, TSMC held a 59% marketshare in 2016, the same as in 2015, and its sales increased by $2.9 billion last year, more than double the $1.4 billion increase it logged in 2015.  GlobalFoundries, UMC, and SMIC’s combined share was 26% in 2016, the same as in 2015.

The three top-10 pure-play foundry companies that displayed the highest growth rates in 2016 were X Fab (54%), which specializes in analog, mixed-signal, and high-voltage devices and acquired pure-play foundry Altis in 3Q16 to move into the top 10 for the first time, China-based SMIC (31%), and analog and mixed-signal specialist foundry TowerJazz (30%).  In contrast to X-Fab’s 2016 growth spurt, TowerJazz and SMIC have been on a very strong growth curve over the past few years.  TowerJazz went from $505 million in sales in 2013 to $1,249 million in 2016 (a 35% CAGR) while SMIC more than doubled its revenue from 2011 ($1,220 million) to 2016 ($2,921 million) and registered a 19% CAGR over this five-year period.

Seven of the top 10 pure-play foundries listed in Figure 1 are based in the Asia-Pacific region.  Europe-headquartered specialty foundry X-Fab, Israel-based TowerJazz, and U.S.-headquartered GlobalFoundries are the only non-Asia-Pacific companies in the top 10 group.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Further trends and analysis relating to the IC market are covered in the 400-plus page 2017 edition of The McClean Report.

HID Global forecasts a shift in the use of identity technology that will lead to increased adoption of mobile devices and the latest smart card technology, a greater emphasis and reliance on the cloud, and a radical new way of thinking of trust in smart environments and Internet of Things (IoT).

Ultimately, HID Global predicts the 2017 trends will transform the way trusted identities are used with smart cards, mobile devices, wearables, embedded chips and other “smart” objects, particularly in industries focused on regulatory compliance, such as government, finance and healthcare markets. This shift will precipitate the move from legacy systems to NFC, Bluetooth Low Energy and advanced smart card technology to meet the evolving needs of enterprises and governments worldwide.

The forecast for 2017 is also based on a breakthrough in adoption of mobile identity technology in 2016. Exemplifying industry-wide trending, HID Global experienced tremendous uptick in customer deployments of its broad mobility solutions and has a strong pipeline of future customer installations in the works to make verification of identities optimized for mobile applications.

“HID Global has forecasted top trends based on our broad view of the market in close collaboration with customers and partners who are assessing and deploying innovative solutions across markets worldwide,” said Stefan Widing, President and CEO of HID Global. “We have been at the forefront of major technology shifts over the years and HID Global believes 2017 will mark an important phase in the industry, as organizations seek to use the broadest range of smart devices ever. This will directly impact how customers view and use trusted identities on both mobile devices and smart cards for more activities in more connected environments in the years ahead.”

HID Global focuses on four significant trends in 2017 that will influence how organizations create, manage and use trusted identities in a broad range of existing and new use cases.

Stronger adoption of mobile devices and advanced smart cards underscores the need for trusted identities

  • Similar to the adoption of consumer trends to IT in past years, 2017 will also see further consumerization of security, with heightened demand from users seeking to open doors, and login to cloud-based resources, as well as have personalized on-demand printing of documents, and to deploy printed credentials remotely or conduct other transactions and daily activities using trusted IDs on their phone, wearable or smart card.
  • Trusted IDs that integrate security, privacy and convenience will provide a new level of assurance to these applications and transactions, while being uniquely positioned to make secure access more personalized to the individual.
  • The industry will look towards complete identity relationship management that considers the need to grant access based on the context or circumstances for risk-appropriate authentication across trusted identities assigned to people, devices, data and things in smart offices, buildings and other environments that are becoming more connected every day.

Greater emphasis on the cloud through “hybrid” solutions that combine on-premises and the cloud to create common management platforms for digital IDs

  • Organizations are recognizing the interdependencies of technologies and platforms needed for business agility, cost management and providing a better user experience within a mobile workforce, or for digital commerce and relationship management that continues to require more reach, flexibility, security.
  • In banking, government, healthcare and other regulated markets, multi-factor authentication for physical and IT access control will have more opportunities to merge into integrated systems that will also provide a more convenient experience for users and increase security.
  • This model will make it easier for administrators to deploy and maintain an integrated system throughout the complete identity lifecycle — from onboarding to offboarding;
  • It will make it possible to monitor and manage employees’ access rights as their role changes within an organization, ensuring employees only have access to what they need in a current role.
  • Credential issuance for physical ID cards will also experience a digital transformation, as the use of cloud technologies will enable managed service models for badge printing and encoding.

Emerging IoT uses cases to connect, more people, places and things, increasing the need to ensure the Internet of Trusted Things (IoTT)

  • Trusted identities will increasingly be employed to help secure, customize and enhance the user experience across a growing range of industry segments that are embracing the power of the IoT.
  • Organizations will look towards streamlining processes and operations using real-time location systems, presence- and proximity-based location functionality, condition monitoring solutions, beacons and cloud-based models for emerging IoT applications using Bluetooth Low Energy. These applications will include a growing number of energy efficient, productivity and safety-oriented use cases that will need to know the identity of occupants in a physical space to manage environmental conditions, book meeting rooms and auto-configure audio visual equipment and alarms.
  • Bluetooth Low Energy-based solutions will also advance existing secure proof of presence capabilities to include the predictive analytics and functionality based on location-based technologies.

Embedding trusted identities more deeply in everyday activities for businesses and consumers

  • Trusted identities will become an embedded feature of more use cases rather than simply an add-on capability. This trend of “security by design” will lead to many more convenient approaches to using digital identities across a growing variety of activities, services and industries.
  • Along with popular secure access use cases, new applications will emerge, such as employee mustering capabilities to address emergencies as well as the need to more accurately determine who is in a building in real-time.
  • New capabilities for managing and using trusted IDs will be driven by the increase of temporary offices, mobile knowledge workers and the evolution of the workplace, where adapting to the preferences of today’s talent pool is driving the need for more open, flexible workspaces. Consumers also will begin seeing trusted identities used in many everyday scenarios, such as guaranteeing authorized use of corporate and heavy machinery fleets, as well as creating new ways to safeguard students and validate drivers.

These trends will drive new user experiences that are tailored to vertical market requirements. Following are three particularly compelling examples:

Banking: A digital identity transformation will drive consistency across multiple service channels to improve the user experience, from faster instant issuance that is revolutionizing the way customers receive new or replacement debit and credit cards, to “out-of-band” mobile push capabilities that increase trust and reduce fraud for consumers, and deliver a much easier path to compliance for financial institutions. Digital IDs will also push the industry to increase trust levels by better associating a user’s true identity (biometrics) with their digital identities.

Government: Trusted identities will change the way citizens interact with government agencies and systems. Passports, national IDs, driver licenses and other credentials will co-exist with new disruptive technologies to change the way IDs are issued by government agencies and used by citizens. Citizen IDs are poised to move to mobile phones this year, where state and national governments will begin offering mobile driver’s licenses and other mobile identity IDs as an option alongside the physical document. Meanwhile, the combination of mobile with innovative physical and logical features will provide more options for government agencies to stay ahead of the counterfeiters by advancing the security, personalization, management and issuance of physical documents.

Healthcare: In the increasingly connected healthcare environment, institutions will seek to implement better systems to improve the patient experience and enhance efficiencies, while safeguarding and managing access to equipment, facilities, patient data and electronic prescriptions of controlled substances (EPCS) across the healthcare continuum. From hospital to home, healthcare organizations will seek to employ a combination of strong authentication, and new IoT applications to address these challenges.

HID Global anticipates the shift in the use of identity technology will drive industry trends in 2017, along with new solutions and capabilities that enhance the user experience for years to come.

SEMI’s Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) opened yesterday with a theme focused on new industry forces and new markets.  The annual three-day conference of C-level executives gives the year’s first strategic outlook of the global electronics manufacturing industry. Today’s keynote, economic trends, and market perspectives highlighted market and technology opportunities and marked the rising tide for 2017 investments in the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain. While Day 1 brought both insight and optimism to the more than 200 attendees, deeper discussions on technology, applications, regional opportunities, and an expert panel on mergers and acquisitions will be presented on Day 2 and Day 3 of SEMI’s business leader annual kick-off event.

Opening keynoter Gary Patton, CTO and senior VP of worldwide R&D at GLOBALFOUNDRIES, presented a wide-ranging overview of industry growth and opportunities. Referencing Thomas Friedman’s three disruptive trends:  globalization, climate change, and Moore’s Law, Patton showed 2016’s global semiconductor merger and acquisition activity exceeding a staggering $130 billion and China’s rapidly growing IC production which is forecast to reach more than 20 percent of global output in 2020.

Patton identified five areas of semiconductor growth: IoT (Internet of Things), Automotive, 5G (mobile network), AR & VR (Augmented & Virtual Reality), and Artificial Intelligence.  From 2016 to 2025, Patton forecasted that semiconductor IoT content will grow from $15 billion to $62 billion, Automotive will grow from $32 billion to $51 billion, 5G will grow from $0 to $20 billion, AR/VR will grow from $4 billion to $131 billion, and Artificial Intelligence will grow from $5 billion to $50 billion.

For these different growth areas, Patton and GLOBALFOUNDRIES see a variety of solutions, what they’re calling “the right technology for the right application.”  This includes FinFET, FD-SOI, and different technology nodes selected for specific applications.  DTCO (Design-Technology Co-Optimization), and collaboration with not just suppliers, but sub-suppliers, raw materials and components manufacturers were key tools for success with Patton calling for greater cooperation in working within SEMI’s Semiconductor Components, Instruments, and Subsystems (SCIS) Special Interest Group.

In the Economic Trends session, presenters took on macroeconomic trends and detailed industry-specific forecasts:

  • Paul Thomas, Economic Stories, long-time former chief economist at Intel, drilled down on the topic of innovation, productivity, and economic stagnation.  Thomas presented data that showed productivity growth rates are not showing the expected benefits of digitization (computers, etc.).  He discussed possible causes for the discrepancies and gave food for thought on the gaps between perceived and measured productivity gains due to digital innovations.
  • Jim Hines, Gartner, provided a recently upgraded semiconductor and electronics market.  With recent improvements in chip prices, increasing semiconductor content, and inventory replenishment 2016 IC revenue was upgraded from 0.9 percent to 1.5 percent for 2016.  2016 is now forecast to come in at $340 billion.  2017 forecasts were adjusted from 5.5 percent to 7.7 percent.  Areas for strong growth are seen to be non-optical sensors (NOS), memory, opto-electronics and automotive growth (driven by connected vehicles, automated driving, and powertrain electrification).
  • G. Dan Hutcheson, VLSI Research, forecasted semiconductor equipment revenue at $54 billion, up 10 percent in 2016 and an outlook for $58 billion, up 8 percent, in 2017. Hutcheson showed data that the industry bottomed in April 2016 and in July 2016 demand pressure shifted the industry into an upturn.  Shortages in semiconductor supply will continue to drive growth in 2017.  Cloud computing and automotive are hot spots with smartphones in China, PC replacement cycles, DRAM pricing and Flash for SSD providing further positive support.
  • Michael Corbett, Linx Consulting provided an overview of the dynamics for wafer fab materials in the semiconductor industry. Corbett noted that the market for semiconductor materials was $18.5 billion in 2015 with the top 50 suppliers accounting for $17.2 billion or 93 percent of the materials sold.  M&A has been active in materials with recent combination of Dow & DuPont (proposed), Linde and Praxair, and Air Liquide and Airgas.  Corbett identified key trends impacting WFM suppliers including a consolidating customer base while at the same time the industry finds new entrants from China.
  • Matt Gertken, BCA Research provided a more academic geopolitical outlook for 2017.  Looking through the lenses of multipolarity, mercantilism, and dirigisme, Gertken provided context for the changes in progressive and protectionist forces over time.  Showing that globalization increased almost monotonically from 1950 through 2010, it appears to have hit a trade globalization peak where globalization plateaued and, in part, set the stage for Brexit and the unexpected Trump win and related more protectionist sentiment.

The afternoon session focused on Market Perspectives, including consumer, artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), and automotive.

  • Shawn DuBravac, Consumer Tech Association, gave a summary of CES 2017 which just ended the day before.  DuBravac found three unifying trends at this year’s event:  voice, AI, and connections and computations.  It is anticipated that we are entering the era of faceless computing. The next computer interface is voice – with vocal computing replacing the traditional GUIs for robots and other emerging computing devices.
  • Prasad Sabada, Google, in his presentation on “Cloud and Moore: Disruptors for Semiconductors,” discussed two inflection points.  Tectonics shift #1:  Cloud. Tectonic Shift #2:  No more Moore’s Law.  Sabada sees the industry entering an era of accelerators – application specific devices that may leapfrog up to three Moore’s Law node generations.  Sabada called upon the semiconductor manufacturing industry for the need for speed (launch changes at the speed of software), the need for balanced system integration (innovation across the system), and the need for open innovation and collaboration.
  • Dario Gill, IBM Research, focused on “the new frontiers” of computing.  Gill talked about “Beautiful Ideas.”  He presented two:  Artificial intelligence, a beautiful idea with consensus; and Quantum Computing a beautiful idea (currently) without consensus.  He went on to show the value of artificial intelligence and the complicated and extraordinary potential for Quantum Computing.
  • Mark Bünger, Lux Research, believes the industry needs to rethink sensors, networks, and autonomy in automotive. Bünger forecast that autonomy could proceed much faster than diffusion of other car features because of its massive potential for improving utilization. It is not without disruption, though, as carmakers are worried about “losing the dashboard.”  Bünger provided several visceral examples of autonomous driving scenarios to make the case for AI moving to the IoT edge – and not relying on the Cloud.
  • Andrew Macleod, Mentor Graphics, discussed how automotive electronics are “a non-linear system of systems.”  Macleod pointed out that there have been three waves of recent progress in automotive electronics.  The first wave was globalization in 1984 when VW (and others) moved into the China market and pioneered automotive R&D decentralization and regional customization.  In the second wave came automotive drive electrification with the Toyota Prius in 1997.  The third wave was digitalization and the democratization of automotive.  The car is now becoming a consumer device and needs new design tools to manage the enormous amount of electronics complexity and permutations.

Days 2 and 3 at ISS will delve deeper into the industry ─ technology, manufacturing, public policy, and global forces, including China’s new focus on semiconductor manufacturing ─ with presentations from: AMEC, Applied Materials, Cadence Design Systems, imec, JSR, McKinsey & Company, Shanghai Huali Microelectronics (HLMC), IC Knowledge, International Business Strategies, Nikon, SanDisk, and SEMI. The Tuesday morning keynote is presented by Diane M. Bryant of Intel. Diego Olego of Philips Healthcare will offer the closing keynote on Wednesday, immediately before the ISS Panel on “The Future of M&A in the Semiconductor Industry,” with panelists from DCG Systems, FormFactor, MKS Instruments, and Stifel Nicolaus; moderated by Robert Maire, Semiconductor Advisors.

The SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) examines global economic, technology, market, business and geo-political developments influencing the global electronics manufacturing industry along with their implications for your strategic business decisions. For more than 35 years, ISS has been the premier semiconductor conference for senior executives to acquire the latest trend data, technology highlights and industry perspective to support business decisions, customer strategies and the pursuit of greater profitability.

Sales of memory ICs are expected to show the strongest growth rate among major integrated circuit market categories during the next five years, according to IC Insights’ new 2017 McClean Report, which becomes available this month.  The 20th anniversary edition of The McClean Report forecasts that revenues for memory products—including DRAMs and NAND flash ICs—will increase by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% to $109.9 billion in 2021 from $77.3 billion in 2016.

The 2017 McClean Report separates the total IC market into four major product categories: analog, logic, memory, and microcomponents.  Figure 1 shows the forecasted 2016-2021 CAGRs of the four major IC product categories compared to the projected total IC market annual growth rate of 4.9% during the five-year period.  As shown, the memory IC category is forecast to show the strongest growth rate through 2021 while the weakest increase is expected to occur in the logic category, which includes general-purpose logic, ASICs, field-programmable logic, display drivers, and application-specific standard products.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The strong memory CAGR is driven by surging low-power memory requirements for DRAM and NAND flash in portable wireless devices like smartphones and by growing demand for solid-state drives (SSD) used in big-data storage applications and increasingly in notebook computers.  Moreover, year-over-year DRAM bit volume growth is expected to increase throughout the forecast to support virtualization, graphics, and other complex, real-time workload applications.

Analog ICs, the second-fastest growing segment, are a necessity within both very advanced and low-budget systems. Power management analog devices are critical for helping extend battery life in portable and wireless systems and have demonstrated strong market growth in recent years.  In 2017, the signal conversion market is forecast to be the fastest growing analog IC category, and the second-fastest growing IC product category overall, trailing only the market growth of 32-bit MCUs.

Total microcomponent sales have cooled significantly.  Fortunately, marginal gains in the cellphone MPU market and strong gains in the 32-bit MCU market have helped offset weakness of standard PC and tablet microprocessor sales.

The McClean Report includes sales history and forecast information for each IC product within these four large product categories for the 2014-2021 time period.  Included are market, unit, average selling price (ASP), and 2016-2021 compound average growth rate (CAGR) for all IC categories. Further trends and analysis relating to the IC market are covered in the 400-plus page 2017 edition of The McClean Report.

How can the Internet of Things change the future of the average citizen? To answer this question, imec joins forces with the City of Antwerp and the Flanders region to turn Antwerp into a Living Lab in which businesses, researchers, local residents and the city itself will experiment with smart technologies that aim to make urban life more pleasant, enjoyable and sustainable.

“Making life in cities more pleasant and sustainable, using everything that our technology has to offer, that is what Smart Cities is all about,” says Philippe Muyters, Flemish Minister for the Economy. “And imec, as a world-class research center, is the right partner to make this happen. With imec’s expertise, we can build a smart city with an open, secure and scalable infrastructure. A smart city where everyone has the opportunity to develop ideas and work together to create the future of Antwerp and the Flanders region.” Through imec, Flanders will invest €4 million annually in the City of Things project, in addition to the required project resources.

City of Things is a collaborative project between the City of Antwerp, Flanders and imec. The nerve center for this initiative is located at StartupVillage, the location from which imec also runs its Antwerp startup and incubation operations. During the period from 2017 to 2019, the City of Antwerp intends to invest €650,000 in the project. According to City Councilor for the Economy Caroline Bastiaens: “The city is targeting four strategic priorities: mobility, security, sustainability and digital interaction with citizens.”

Network of sensors

The City of Things project will roll out a fine-grained network of smart sensors and wireless gateways located around Antwerp’s buildings, streets, squares and other city objects. This network will connect the citizens with a whole range of innovative applications. The ensuing digital innovation is expected to enforce the city’s economic clout. And with the insights gained from the project, Antwerp and its businesses will learn how to collect the data they need to take well-informed decisions and develop innovative smart applications. Shortly, the seaport of Antwerp will also join the initiative, becoming an incubator for similar smart ideas.

“For the cities of tomorrow it’s all about the survival of the smartest,” says Antwerp mayor Bart De Wever. “Monitoring is the key to knowledge – so that’s exactly what we are going to do. Thanks to this unique collaboration, Antwerp is heading for a new golden age. In the coming years, the city will build a strong position in smart city technology, nationally and internationally. It is also the first step in putting Flanders firmly on the world map as a knowledge region: Smart Flanders, we call it.”

Europe’s biggest living lab

Imec has major ambitions. The Antwerp Living Lab is designed to grow into the largest living lab in Europe for Internet of Things applications. “Together with the City of Antwerp and Flanders, we have the ambition to become a leading player in the connected world,” says Luc Van den hove, CEO of imec. “The City of Things project allows us to join the city residents, developers, entrepreneurs, the government, and research centers and universities around one common goal: developing innovative solutions for better cities. Antwerp will become a living technology lab in which everyone can make a contribution to a sustainable, forward-looking society.”

The Antwerp Living Lab already has a number of projects up and running. These include vans operated by Bpost, the Belgian postal service, which have sensors to measure the air quality throughout the city, sensors whose data can be used to improve the city’s air quality. Another project involved the company Restore, measuring energy consumption in real-time and smoothing out usage spikes with the aim to ensure more efficient, cheaper energy production. With network operator Orange, we study how the project’s goals can be achieved using NarrowBand-IoT. This new technology enables communication of small data volumes over extended periods at hard-to-reach places, at the same time ensuring that the batteries of the connected devices can keep going for up to 10 years. The preparatory work on a host of other projects, e.g. concerning mobility, is underway.

A smart city will make life, living and working more enjoyable for local residents, visitors and businesses alike. Privacy and security are, of course, of great importance.

Ideal city

Caroline Bastiaens, City Councilor for the Economy: “Antwerp is an ideal city to establish this Living Lab. The city is big enough to test applications properly, yet sufficiently small to keep the cost and time required for development under control. Antwerp also has an interesting mix of offices, industry and retail, meaning that various applications can be developed to cover all needs.”

In recent years, Antwerp has developed a blooming ecosystem of start-up businesses and growth companies involved in digital innovation. Currently, the city has more than 350 start-ups and ten growth companies that have newly raised more than half a million euro capital, as well as nine incubators and accelerators, the StartupVillage, exciting corporation such as Nokia, and an extensive  international network. “And last but not least,” concludes Mayor Bart De Wever, “our city council is very open to innovation.”

Imagine a dim light which is insufficiently bright enough to illuminate a room. An amplifier for such a light would increase the brightness by increasing the number of photons emitted. Photonics researchers have created such a high gain optical amplifier that is compact enough to be placed on a chip. The developed amplifier, when used within an optical interconnect such as a transceiver or fiber optic network, would help to efficiently increase the power of the transmitted light before it is completely depleted through optical losses.

Singapore University of Technology and Design Assistant Professor Dawn Tan and the newly developed amplifier on a chip. Credit: Courtesy of Dr. Dawn Tan

Singapore University of Technology and Design Assistant Professor Dawn Tan and the newly developed amplifier on a chip. Credit: Courtesy of Dr. Dawn Tan

Besides having the potential to replace bulky, expensive amplifiers used today for the study of attosecond science and ultrafast optical information processing, the newly developed nanoscale-amplifier also provides a critical element to the optical interconnects toolkit, potentially providing regenerative amplification in short to long range interconnects. This work was a collaborative effort between researchers at the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD), A*STAR Data Storage Institute and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Details appeared in Nature Communications on January 4th 2017.

“We have developed an optical amplifier which is able to amplify light by 17,000 times at the telecommunications wavelength,” said Assistant Professor Dawn Tan at SUTD who led the development of the amplifier. “We use a proprietary platform called ultra-silicon-rich nitride, with a material composition of seven parts silicon, three parts nitrogen, with the large nonlinearity and photon efficiency needed for high gain amplification, through the efficient transfer of photons from a pump to the signal. To give a sense of the scale, a conventional optical parametric amplifier costs several hundred thousand dollars, and occupies an entire optical table, while the newly developed amplifier is much smaller than a paper clip, and costs a fraction of the former.”

Providing high gain on such a small footprint could enable new opportunities in low cost broadband spectroscopy, precision manufacturing and hyperspectral imaging. The device’s efficiency is also revealed through cascaded four wave mixing, which is a higher order mixing of the amplified and converted photons. This phenomenon also allows the amplifier to operate as a tunable broadband light source, enabling cheaper and more efficient spectroscopic sensing and molecular fingerprinting than what is available today.

“The inefficiencies in highly nonlinear photonic devices are overcome here, by photonic device engineering for maximum nonlinearity, while still maintaining a sufficiently large bandgap to eliminate two-photon absorption at the telecommunications wavelength. We believe this is one of the highest gains demonstrated at the telecommunications wavelength to date on a CMOS chip” said Prof Tan.

Achieving ultra-large amplification while maintaining high compactness was possible because the researchers managed to design and implement an amplifier which operates simultaneously with a high nonlinearity and photon efficiency. In other platforms which are compatible with processes used in the electronics industry today, either the nonlinearity or photon efficiency is low.

“The results demonstrate the ultra-silicon-rich nitride platform to be extremely promising for highly efficient nonlinear optics applications, particularly in the field of CMOS photonics leveraging existing electronics infrastructure,” says Dr. Doris Ng, Scientist III at the A*STAR Data Storage Institute.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $31.0 billion for the month of November 2016, an increase of 7.4 percent compared to the November 2015 total of $28.9 billion and 2.0 percent more than the October 2016 total of 30.4 billion. November marked the market’s largest year-to-year growth since January 2015. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“Global semiconductor sales continued to pick up steam in November, increasing at the highest rate in almost two years and nearly pulling even with the year-to-date total from the same point in 2015,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “The Chinese market continues to stand out, growing nearly 16 percent year-to-year to lead all regional markets. As 2016 draws to a close, the global semiconductor market appears likely to roughly match annual sales from 2015 and is well-positioned for a solid start to 2017.”

Month-to-month sales increased modestly across all regions: the Americas (3.3 percent), China (2.7 percent), Europe (2.5 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (0.7 percent), and Japan (0.4 percent). Year-to-year sales increased in China (15.8 percent), Japan (8.2 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (4.8 percent), and the Americas (3.2 percent), but fell slightly in Europe (-1.6 percent).

Worldwide combined shipments of PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones are projected to remain flat in 2017, according to Gartner, Inc. Worldwide shipments for these devices are projected to total 2.3 billion in 2017, the same as 2016 estimates.

There were nearly 7 billion phones, tablets and PCs in use in the world by the end of 2016. However, Gartner does not expect any growth in shipments of traditional devices until 2018, when a small increase in ultramobiles and mobile phone shipments is expected (see Table 1).

“The global devices market is stagnating. Mobile phone shipments are only growing in emerging Asia/Pacific markets, and the PC market is just reaching the bottom of its decline,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.

“As well as declining shipment growth for traditional devices, average selling prices are also beginning to stagnate because of market saturation and a slower rate of innovation,” added Mr. Atwal. “Consumers have fewer reasons to upgrade or buy traditional devices (see Table 1). They are seeking fresher experiences and applications in emerging categories such as head mounted displays (HMDs), virtual personal assistant (VPA) speakers and wearables.”

Table 1 
Worldwide Devices Shipments by Device Type, 2016-2019 (Millions of Units)

Device Type

2016

2017

2018

2019

Traditional PCs (Desk-Based and Notebook)

219

205

198

193

Ultramobiles (Premium)

49

61

74

85

PC Market

268

266

272

278

Ultramobiles (Basic and Utility)

168

165

166

166

Computing Devices Market

436

432

438

444

Mobile Phones

1,888

1,893

1,920

1,937

Total Devices Market

2,324

2,324

2,357

2,380

Note: The Ultramobile (Premium) category includes devices such as Microsoft Windows 10 Intel x86 products and Apple MacBook Air.
The Ultramobile (Basic and Utility Tablets) category includes devices such as Apple iPad and iPad mini, Samsung Galaxy Tab S2, Amazon Fire HD, Lenovo Yoga Tab 3, and Acer Iconia One.
Source: Gartner (January 2017)

The embattled PC market will benefit from a replacement cycle toward the end of this forecast period, returning to growth in 2018. Increasingly, attractive premium ultramobile prices and functionality will entice buyers as traditional PC sales continue to decline. The mobile phone market will also benefit from replacements. There is, however, a difference in replacement activity between mature and emerging markets. “People in emerging markets still see smartphones as their main computing device and replace them more regularly than mature markets,” said Mr. Atwal.

Device vendors are increasingly trying to move into faster-growing emerging device categories. “This requires a shift from a hardware-focused approach to a richer value-added service approach,” said Mr. Atwal. “As service-led approaches become even more crucial, hardware providers will have to partner with service providers, as they lack the expertise to deliver the service offerings themselves.”

More detailed analysis is available to clients in the reports “Forecast: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2013-2020, 4Q16 Update.”

By Chet Lenox, David W. Price and Douglas G. Sutherland

Author’s Note: The Process Watch series explores key concepts about process control—defect inspection and metrology—for the semiconductor industry. Following the previous installments, which examined the 10 fundamental truths of process control, this new series of articles highlights additional trends in process control, including successful implementation strategies and the benefits for IC manufacturing. For this article, we are pleased to include insights from our guest author and colleague at KLA-Tencor, Chet Lenox.

In order to maximize the profitability of an IC manufacturer’s new process node or product introduction, an early and fast yield ramp is required. Key to achieving this rapid yield ramp is the ability to provide quality and actionable data to the engineers making decisions on process quality and needed improvements.

The data used to make these decisions comes in two basic forms:

  • Inline inspection and metrology results
  • End-of-line (EOL) parametric testing, product yield results and failure-analysis

Inline inspection and metrology serve as the primary source of data for process engineers, enabling quick identification of excursions and implementation of corrective actions. End-of-line results serve as a metric of any process flow’s ability to produce quality product, generating transistor parametrics, yield sub-binning and physical failure analysis (PFA) data that provide insight into process quality and root-cause mechanisms.

In general, a fab is better off financially by finding and fixing problems inline versus end-of-line1 due to the long delay between wafer processing and collection of EOL data. However, EOL results are a critical component in understanding how specific inline defects correlate to product performance and yield, particularly during early process development cycles. Therefore, the ideal yield improvement methodology relies on inline inspection and metrology for excursion monitoring and process change qualification, while EOL results are used only for the validation of yield improvement changes.

In order for this scenario to be achieved, inline data must be high quality with appropriate sampling, and a clear correlation must be established between inline results and EOL yield. One key tool that is often utilized to achieve this connection is hitback analysis. Hitback analysis is the mapping of EOL electrical failure and PFA locations to inline defect locations identified by inspection tools.

Hitback analysis comes in two basic forms. In the traditional method, EOL yield failures guide PFA, often in the form of a cross-section transmission electron microscope (TEM) confirmation of a physical defect. This physical location is then overlaid against inline defect locations for correlation to inline learning. This analysis often offers clear causality for yield failures, but is slow (dozens/week) and can be blind to defect modes that are difficult to locate or image in TEM.

The second method, which is growing in popularity, is to overlay the EOL electrical failure location directly to inline defect data (figure 1). This is largely enabled by modern logic design methods and analysis tools that allow electrical failures to be localized into “chain” locations where the failure is likely to occur. Furthermore, new technologies allow inline inspection to be guided to potential chain location failures based purely on design layout.

For example, KLA-Tencor’s broadband plasma optical patterned wafer inspection systems incorporate patented technologies (NanoPoint™, pin•point™) that leverage design data to define very tiny inspection areas focused solely on critical patterns.2,3,4 Using these design-based technologies to inspect patterns related to potential chain failures produces inspection results consisting of defects that are strongly correlated to end-of-line yield. This more direct technique allows for faster turn-around on analysis, enables higher sampling (hundreds of defects/wafer) and can provide successful causality on defect modes that are difficult to find physically at EOL.

Figure 1. Hitback analysis technique where likely die fail chain locations from EOL are overlaid with inline inspection results.

Figure 1. Hitback analysis technique where likely die fail chain locations from EOL are overlaid with inline inspection results.

To achieve successful direct hitback analysis from electrical fail chains to inline defect locations, a number of methodologies are helpful:

  • Wafers that will be used for hitback analysis should be inspected at all key process steps. This avoids “holes” in potential causality to the EOL failure
  • Geometry-based overlay algorithms should be used that combine the point-based inline defect location with area-based reporting of EOL chains
  • The overlay distance allowed to label a chain-to-defect distance a “hit” must be large enough to allow for inspection tool defect location accuracy (DLA) but small enough that the statistical probability of false-positives is low; see Figure 2
  • All defects found by the inspector should be used for analysis, not just defects that are classified by subsequent review steps
  • Electrical fail chain locations should utilize layer information as well as x/y mapping
Figure 2. The threshold used to overlay EOL electrical chains to inline defects must be optimized to avoid failures or false positives.

Figure 2. The threshold used to overlay EOL electrical chains to inline defects must be optimized to avoid failures or false positives.

When performed properly, the hitback capture rate metric (in percentage) will quantify the number of fails which “hitback” to inline defects. This metric can be used broadly as an indicator of inline inspection capability, with higher numbers indicating that inline inspection can be more confidently used in yield improvement efforts. Therefore, hitback analysis should be performed as early as possible in the development cycle and new product introduction timescale. This allows time for inline defect inspection capture rate improvement through these traditional methods:

  • Inspection tool and recipe improvement, including the use of guided inspection based on product layout
  • Lot-, wafer- and die-level sampling adjustments
  • Process step inspection location optimization

When performed regularly, hitback analysis greatly assists in improving inline inspection confidence and improves yield learning speed. Hitback capture rates increasing to more than 70 percent are not uncommon for effective inline monitoring schemes. It is worth mentioning that the slower EOL PFA Pareto generation and hitback analysis is still required even when direct EOL-to-inline is performed in order to validate the chain fails and hitback capture rate.

Yield ramp rate is often the primary factor in the profitability of a fab’s new process and new product introduction. This ramp rate is strongly influenced by the effectiveness of inline wafer inspection, allowing faster information turns and quicker decision making by process engineers. Hitback analysis is a key method for gauging the effectiveness of inline inspection and for driving inspection improvements, particularly when correlating EOL electrical chain failures to inline defect results.

References:

About the Authors:

Dr. Chet Lenox, Dr. David W. Price and Dr. Douglas Sutherland are Yield Consultant, Senior Director, and Principal Scientist, respectively, at KLA-Tencor Corp. Dr. Lenox, Dr. Price and Dr. Sutherland have worked directly with many semiconductor IC manufacturers to help them optimize their overall inspection strategy to achieve the lowest total cost. This series of articles attempts to summarize some of the universal lessons they have observed through these engagements.