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Adding intelligence to materials and products facilitates the fully decentralized operations model associated with Industry 4.0.

BY FRANCISCO ALMADA LOBO, Critical Manufacturing, Moreira da Maia, Portugal

Industry 4.0 is coming. It is the next major industrial revolution that will re-define manufacturing as we know it today. But what does Industry 4.0 bring to benefit an industry that already has highly advanced sophisticated manufacturing techniques?

The semiconductor industry is currently not one of those embracing Industry 4.0. Some of the reasons for this are based around the far reaching supply chain the industry uses, some because of the size of batches is still large in some businesses, and some because the idea of gathering greater quantities of information from machines is really not a new concept for the industry. To understand the benefits of Industry 4.0 to semiconductor production, let’s first look at exactly what it is.

A little about Industry 4.0

Industry 4.0 takes innovative developments that are available today and integrates them to produce a modern, smarter production model. It merges real and virtual worlds and is based on Cyber-physical Systems (CPS) and Cyber-physical Production Systems (CPPS), as show in FIGURE 1. The model was created to increase business agility, enable cost-effective production of customized products, lower overall production costs, enhance product quality and increase production efficiency. It brings with it new levels of automation and automated decision making that will mean faster responses to production needs and much greater efficiency.

FIGURE 1. Industry 4.0 merges real and virtual worlds and is based on Cyber-physical Systems (CPS) and Cyber-physical Production Systems (CPPS)

FIGURE 1. Industry 4.0 merges real and virtual worlds and is based on Cyber-physical Systems (CPS) and Cyber-physical Production Systems (CPPS)

The Industry 4.0 model is inherently a de-centralized one with masses of data being transferred. The reduced cost of computer technology enables it to be embedded into shop floor materials and products. CPS then integrate computational networks with the surrounding physical world and its processes. Using the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), products will have the ability to collect and transmit data; communicate with equipment, and take intelligent routing decisions without the need for operator intervention. Cloud computing technology further gives a ready platform to store this data and make it freely available to systems surrounding it.

As CPPS compete to provide services to CPS devices a smart shop floor is created that acts as a marketplace. Adding communication and integration throughout the wider supply chain also means that different manufacturing facilities and even individual processes within a factory can compete for work; creating a Manufacturing as a Service (MaaS) model.

With hundreds of devices and shop floor entities producing information, Big Data and advanced analytics are also a major part of Industry 4.0. Simply collecting a lot of data doesn’t improve a factory’s performance. Advanced analytical software is needed to transform structured and unstructured data into intelligent, usable information. Having huge volumes of data also means this powerful software can be used to help predict production scenarios to further drive efficiencies and improve production strategy.

The intelligent operation and advanced analytics within Industry 4.0 will enable smarter decision making and provide the opportunity to further enhance processes. It will enable new products to be created, tested and introduced at a much faster rate with assured quality, consis- tency and reliability. The benefits are far reaching and so significant that this revolution will certainly come but the change will be gradual. To be sure not to be left behind, manufacturers will need to plan for the implementation of this predicted industrial revolution.

What does Industry 4.0 mean for semiconductor manufacturers?

For the semiconductor industry, the high cost of wafers make attaching electronic components to each wafer carrier or FOUP completely viable and presents huge benefits in increased production efficiency. Adding intelligence to materials and products facilitates the fully decentralized operations model associated with Industry 4.0 (FIGURE 2). With devices communicating with each other, the increased flexibility and productivity this model produces will make it possible to meet an increasing demand for greater manufacturing mixes and individualized products at much lower costs. For the production of semiconductors in particular, the very nature of the product being manufactured means there may also be opportunity and added benefit for some devices to hold their own information without the need for additional electronics. The information gathered from the decentralized model and analytical software used in Industry 4.0 also makes it easier to account for the cost of each item, resulting in better intelligence for business strategy and product pricing.

FIGURE 2. Adding intelligence to materials and products facilitates the fully decentralized operations model associated with Industry 4.0.

FIGURE 2. Adding intelligence to materials and products facilitates the fully decentralized operations model associated with Industry 4.0.

Although equipment used in the production of semiconductors already have sensors and transmit intelligent information into wider systems, the concept of the CPPS using the IoT adds a new level of simplicity to this idea. The cost of production within the semiconductor industry also means that even marginal variable improvements through the increased use of big data analytics will have huge financial benefits. The Internet of Things (IoT) will further enhance flexibility in measurement and actuation possibilities and free manufacturers from the time and cost associated with changes to sophisticated interfaces on production equipment.

The smart marketplace

With components interacting with machines and having the information they need within them about the processing steps they require, this creates a smart marketplace where the CPS requests services (demand) and the CPPS provides them (supply). Using mobile communications and cloud computing, this can of course be further expanded into the wider supply chain.

The concept of Manufacturing as a Service (MaaS) is, to some extent, already present in the semiconductor industry. The full supply chain has many different steps and, because of the high value of the product, transportation costs become pretty much irrelevant. This means that processing steps can be geographically distributed and the smart marketplace bidding for the work can extend throughout the world. Different factories may compete with each other for procuring specific processing steps and still be competitive regardless of location. Industry 4.0 gives the industry all the tools it needs for a smart, highly efficient marketplace that can add significant production flexibility while reducing both costs and production times.

Benefits of virtual and augmented reality

There are already few manual steps in the semiconductor production process with wafer production in particular using highly automated processes. This means there are few operators to oversee significant amounts of operations and equipment. Industry 4.0 opens up new areas in virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) that will help keep operations running smoothly.

The visualization and control of the wide spread autonomous elements within the CPS and CPPS in a decentralized production model requires a move away from standard, fixed, desk-top like workstations. Mobile devices are now more than capable of handling the demanding tasks of an operator workstation and offer the potential to decrease operational costs and increase productivity (FIGURES 3a and b).

Industry 3

FIGURE 3. Mobile devices are now more than capable of handling the demanding tasks of an operator workstation and offer the potential to decrease operational costs and increase productivity.

FIGURE 3. Mobile devices are now more than capable of handling the demanding tasks of an operator workstation and offer the potential to decrease operational costs and increase productivity.

Using more comprehensive digital data and mobile computing technology, operators would be able to simply point a tablet at a piece of equipment and get real time information about what is happening. Locations of personnel could also be monitored to make most efficient use of human resources available. For the semiconductor industry; the use of secure, mobile devices further reduces the need to take up space in valuable clean-room environments.

Using mobile interfaces, maintenance technicians will also be able to conveniently move between machines without the need to logon at different workstations.

They can interact with different pieces of equipment and gather information about processes while carrying out tasks such as ordering spare parts all from a single mobile device. For specific operations relating to a piece of equipment, apps that automatically launch onto the technician’s tablet depending upon their location may further be used to add important additional infor- mation about a piece of equipment. For example, a particular part may be highlighted to be checked or replaced or additional information about specific machine readings highlighted on the display.

With all the amount of data sent by sensors, products and equipment it will also be possible to visualize in real-time the complete status of a production floor using VR 3D maps. Combining information about where personnel are within the factory and which direction they are facing, this further enables the implementation of some compelling AR scenarios. Indeed, the capability of mobile devices and the increase in real-time data available will likely make the wider use of both VR and AR a fundamental part of shop floor operations.

The Route to Industry 4.0 – the next generation of MES

There are a number of challenges that Industry 4.0 brings with it and its implementation will certainly not happen overnight. The huge benefits the model has to offer, however, can be planned into business strategies and realized over time. One of the first areas to consider is vertical integration of the model. This is important because corporate processes must not be avoided with the autonomy of materials and machines. Business processes for compliance, logistics, engineering, sales or operations all have components inside the plant as well as others that reside beyond the factory that are crucial to a business process being executed effectively. Without these, it’s almost impossible to properly manage a production floor of a certain complexity.

Modern Manufacturing Execution Systems (MES) based on decentralized logic offer a platform for the development of the Industry 4.0 model and a natural route to its vertical integration. MES have always been most effective when integrated into Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems ‘above’ while monitoring and controlling production processes ‘below’.

With the CPS and CPPS communicating directly with each other, the MES can trigger business rules or workflows for the complete production process. For example, quality processes may demand that a device may need additional verification steps before processing continues as part of a higher level quality sampling strategy. This requires communication to intersect the business rules so the quality procedures are not bypassed before the device continues through its production processes.

Another area that is reliant on good vertical integration of systems within Industry 4.0 is Statistical Process Control (SPC). SPC requires data to be collected over time from numerous materials passing through the factory. For example, if a device within the CPS knows it needs to collect a measurable variable, this needs to be confirmed against SPC rules that it is within limits. If it is not, corrective action may be required. Flags for such actions need to be triggered in systems above the CPS and, again, the MES is an ideal platform for this.

By its very nature, the concept of a smart shop floor will generate huge volumes of data. An Industry 4.0 MES will need to aggregate this data and put it into a shop floor context. Indeed, to handle the decentralized logic and vertical integration of the autonomous entities on the shop floor, MES manufacturers need to fully expand their systems’ capabilities to ensure all plant activities are visible, coordinate, managed and accurately measured.

Future MES can also help to realize the full MaaS. This requires horizontal integration so all functions and services can be consumed by all entities on the shop floor including the CPS smart materials and CPPS smart machines. For individual equipment or processes to be procured in single steps, the MES needs to offer exceptional flexibility to expose all available services, capacity and future production plans. With visibility of the complete supply chain, MES also need to consider security and IP related challenges with multi-dimensional security. This needs to be at a service level but also at individual process, step and equipment levels and at any combination of these.

Ultimately it is envisioned that the Cloud will deliver the storage and the ‘anytime, anywhere’ ability to handle the volume of data created from sensors, processing and connectivity capability distributed throughout the plant. The manufacturing intelligence needed and provided by MES today therefore also has to expand to better accommodate the diversity and volume of big data. Fast response to any manufacturing issues will come from real-time analysis where advanced techniques such as “in-memory” and complex event processing may be used to drive operational efficiency even further, where the value of the process makes this a viable return on investment.

Support for advanced analytics in MES is needed to analyse historical data fully understand the performance of the manufacturing processes, quality of products and supply chain optimization. Analytics will also help by identifying inefficiencies based on historical data and pointing staff to corrective or preventive actions for those areas.

Legacy MES

Semiconductor was probably one of the first industries to embrace the idea of MES. First adopters were as early as the 1970s before the term ‘MES’ was even established. Some of these systems still exist today. The problem is that, as the limits of these early systems were reached; small applications have been added around them to meet modern manufacturing demands. These systems are so embedded into production processes that changing them is like replacing the heart of the factory and is no small consideration. There will, however, be some point where these systems can no longer be patched up to meet needs and factories will need to change to survive. The huge potential benefits Industry 4.0 offers may well be the catalyst to change and the basis of sound strategic planning for the future of a business.

Summary

One of the main areas of benefit of the Industry 4.0 decentralized model is the ability to individualize products efficiently with high quality results. This benefits all industries as trends show an increased demand for high mix, smaller batches to meet varying consumer demands. More than for many other industries, the high cost of individualized semiconductors makes the value of adding autonomy to customized processes even higher.

MES have been at the heart of the semiconductor industry for many decades but future-ready MES, based on models with de-centralized logic, offer a pathway to realizing the benefits Industry 4.0 has to offer. For semiconductors these benefits centre on reduced production costs, particularly for small production batches; enhanced efficiency of small workforces, and the business and cost reductions to be gained from the MaaS model and smart supply chain.

Although the semiconductor industry has been somewhat protected, competition is still fierce, especially in areas of mass production. In all different manufacturing areas, however, batch sizes will become smaller and the demand for individualized products will increase. Semiconductor manufacturers that can adapt more quickly to this trend will gain competitive edge and ultimately will be the businesses that survive and grow for the future. Without the Industry 4.0 model manufacturers will of course be able to produce in the future context of more customization, but costs will be much higher than for those who embrace this industrial revolution. If the full scope of Industry 4.0 is realized throughout the supply chain with MaaS, it will be even harder for companies that are outside of this model to compete in the smart marketplace.

With the dawn of Industry 4.0, manufacturing is moving into a new era that brings huge benefits and it is unlikely that the semiconductor industry will let itself be left behind!

From the ground-breaking research breakthroughs to the shifting supplier landscape, these are the stories the Solid State Technology audience read the most during 2016.

#1: Moore’s Law did indeed stop at 28nm

In this follow up, Zvi Or-Bach, president and CEO, MonolithIC 3D, Inc., writes: “As we have predicted two and a half years back, the industry is bifurcating, and just a few products pursue scaling to 7nm while the majority of designs stay on 28nm or older nodes.”

#2: Yield and cost challenges at 16nm and beyond

In February, KLA-Tencor’s Robert Cappel and Cathy Perry-Sullivan wrote of a new 5D solution which utilizes multiple types of metrology systems to identify and control fab-wide sources of pattern variation, with an intelligent analysis system to handle the data being generated.

#3: EUVL: Taking it down to 5nm

The semiconductor industry is nothing if not persistent — it’s been working away at developing extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUVL) for many years, SEMI’s Deb Vogler reported in May.

#4: IBM scientists achieve storage memory breakthrough

For the first time, scientists at IBM Research have demonstrated reliably storing 3 bits of data per cell using a relatively new memory technology known as phase-change memory (PCM).

#5: ams breaks ground on NY wafer fab

In April, ams AG took a step forward in its long-term strategy of increasing manufacturing capacity for its high-performance sensors and sensor solution integrated circuits (ICs), holding a groundbreaking event at the site of its new wafer fabrication plant in Utica, New York.

#6: Foundries takeover 200mm fab capacity by 2018

In January, Christian Dieseldorff of SEMI wrote that a recent Global Fab Outlook report reveals a change in the landscape for 200mm fab capacity.

#7: Equipment spending up: 19 new fabs and lines to start construction

While semiconductor fab equipment spending was off to a slow start in 2016, it was expected to gain momentum through the end of the year. For 2016, 1.5 percent growth over 2015 is expected while 13 percent growth is forecast in 2017.

#8: How finFETs ended the service contract of silicide process

Arabinda Daa, TechInsights, provided a look into how the silicide process has evolved over the years, trying to cope with the progress in scaling technology and why it could no longer be of service to finFET devices.

#9: Five suppliers to hold 41% of global semiconductor marketshare in 2016

In December, IC Insights reported that two years of busy M&A activity had boosted marketshare among top suppliers.

#10: Countdown to Node 5: Moving beyond FinFETs

A forum of industry experts at SEMICON West 2016 discussed the challenges associated with getting from node 10 — which seems set for HVM — to nodes 7 and 5.

BONUS: Most Watched Webcast of 2016: View On Demand Now

IoT Device Trends and Challenges

Presenters: Rajeev Rajan, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, and Uday Tennety, GE Digital

The age of the Internet of Things is upon us, with the expectation that tens of billions of devices will be connected to the internet by 2020. This explosion of devices will make our lives simpler, yet create an array of new challenges and opportunities in the semiconductor industry. At the sensor level, very small, inexpensive, low power devices will be gathering data and communicating with one another and the “cloud.” On the other hand, this will mean huge amounts of small, often unstructured data (such as video) will rippling through the network and the infrastructure. The need to convert that data into “information” will require a massive investment in data centers and leading edge semiconductor technology.

Also, manufacturers seek increased visibility and better insights into the performance of their equipment and assets to minimize failures and reduce downtime. They wish to both cut their costs as well as grow their profits for the organization while ensuring safety for employees, the general public and the environment.

The Industrial Internet is transforming the way people and machines interact by using data and analytics in new ways to drive efficiency gains, accelerate productivity and achieve overall operational excellence. The advent of networked machines with embedded sensors and advanced analytics tools has greatly influenced the industrial ecosystem.

Today, the Industrial Internet allows you to combine data from the equipment sensors, operational data , and analytics to deliver valuable new insights that were never before possible. The results of these powerful analytic insights can be revolutionary for your business by transforming your technological infrastructure, helping reduce unplanned downtime, improve performance and maximize profitability and efficiency.

Chinese panel manufacturers shipped more than one million AMOLED (active-matrix organic light-emitting diode) smartphone displays for the first time in the third quarter of 2016. While the Chinese makers only make up less than 2 percent of the AMOLED smartphone panel market in terms of shipments, hitting the one million unit mark in a quarter shows significant improvements in their manufacturing technology, according to IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

According to the IHS Markit Smartphone Display Market Tracker, total shipments of AMOLED displays for smartphones set a new record of 101 million units in third quarter 2016. While Samsung Display continues to retain its dominant position with 99.7 million units, three Chinese panel makers — EverDisplay Optronics (EDO), Tianma Micro-electronics and Govisionox Optoelectronics — shipped 1.4 million units for the quarter, representing a sharp increase from the approximate 590,000 units in the previous quarter.

“Strong demand from Chinese smartphone brands, especially OPPO and Vivo, helped boosting overall AMOLED panel demand significantly,” said Terry Yu, principal analyst of small and medium displays for IHS Markit. “Many Chinese smartphone makers, such as Meizu, Gionee, Lenovo, Huawei and even Xiaomi, are planning to adopt AMOLED panels in their devices. This gives Chinese display suppliers a great opportunity to gain more orders, improve their mass production yield rate and enhance their product reliability.”

According to IHS Markit, AMOLED display penetration among Chinese smartphone brands is expected to increase from 8 percent in 2015 to 13.6 percent in 2016. However, due to the tight supply of AMOLED panels from Samsung Display, many domestic smartphone brands are turning to local Chinese panel makers. For example, after Xiaomi and Huawei failed to secure their orders of AMOLED panels from Samsung, they struck partnerships with EDO, the leading AMOLED panel suppliers in China, with the promise of mass production and product reliability. EDO, which started operating its Shanghai-based Gen 4.5 AMOLED fab in 2014, shipped one million units of AMOLED panels in the third quarter of 2016, up from 0.2 million units in the first quarter. Similarly, Tianma and Govisionox have also developed business relationships with ZTE as its secondary supplier of AMOLED smartphone displays.

“Chinese panel makers are still too small to threaten Samsung’s dominant position, but they still play an important role as a second or third source for major smartphone brands in China,” Yu said. “Furthermore, as Samsung Display shifts its focus to the flexible OLED, Chinese panel makers are expected to expand their shares in the rigid OLED panel market.”

Chinese_AMOLED_panel_shipments

From artificial intelligence to the Internet of Things (IoT), far-reaching innovations are unfolding in virtually every technology sector around the globe, continuing to change the way consumers, businesses and machines interact while also spurring the next revolution in tech market growth, according to a new white paper from IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

For the white paper, IHS Markit surveyed its leading technology experts, who represent various industry segments including advertising, automotive, connected networks, consumer devices, entertainment, displays, media, semiconductors, telecommunications and others. These analysts were asked to provide their informed predictions for the global technology market in the New Year.

The Top Seven Technology Trends for 2017, as identified in this IHS Markit report and listed in no particular order, are as follows:

Trend #1 – Smart Manufacturing Accelerates With More Real-World Products

  • Companies use IoT to transform how products are made, how supply chains are managed and how customers can influence design.
  • Example: look for automation/operator tech firms to release their own Platforms-as-a Service (PaaS) offering in the cloud as they compete to offer and own IoT projects for the industrial market.

Trend #2 – Artificial Intelligence (AI) Gets Serious

  • Already, personified AI assistants from a handful of companies (Amazon’s Alexa, Apple’s Siri) have access to billions of users via smartphones and other devices.
  • However, even bigger, more profound changes are on their way as levels of human control are ceded directly to AI, such as in autonomous cars or robots.

Trend #3 – The Rise of Virtual Worlds

  • After several years of hype, the operative reality behind virtual, augmented and mixed digital worlds is set to manifest more fully in 2017. The technology for augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) will advance significantly as Facebook, Google and Microsoft consolidate their existing technologies into more exhaustive strategies.
  • New versions of VR-capable game consoles featuring 4K video and high dynamic range (HDR) will also create the medium for high-quality VR content, even if availability will be limited for the next few years.

Trend #4 – The “Meta Cloud” Era Arrives

  • Communication service providers plan to deliver a new wave of innovation, allowing for a single connection to the enterprise and acting as a gateway to multiple cloud service providers. IHS Markit refers to this as the meta cloud.
  • In 2017, new offerings will become available from traditional Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) vendors, coupled with expanded offers from the likes of IBM, Amazon and— most notably—Google via its Tensor chip. Watch for the development and deployment of more specialized silicon in the next two years.

Trend #5 – A Revolution in New Device Formats

  • The development of the consumer drone is the closest example of a product type evolved over the past few years that has quickly gone mass market. 3D printers and pens are heading the same way.
  • The next set of new devices may well materialize at the boundary of cheap 3D printing and inexpensive smartphone components to create completely novel device types and uses.

Trend #6 – Solar Still the Largest Source of Renewable New Power

  • The next year, 2017, will see photovoltaic (PV) technology retaining—and confirming—its position as the planet’s largest source of new renewable power.
  • More than a quarter of all PV capacity added worldwide in 2016 and 2017 will be in the form of solar panels. The growth of solar can be attributed to sharp drops in the cost of PV systems, combined with favorable country policies toward new renewable power.

Trend #7 – Low-Power Technologies Extend Reach to Inaccessible IoT Devices

  • The first batch of low-power, wide-area networks (LPWAN) will go live around the world in 2017 as an alternative to short-range wireless standards such as Wi-Fi and Bluetooth. LPWAN technologies will connect hard-to-reach, IoT devices more efficiently and at a lower cost, dealing with challenges stemming from range limitation to poor signal strength. As a result, opportunities will open up for telecom providers to support low-bit-rate applications.
  • In turn, the increased availability and low cost of LPWAN technologies will drive connectivity for smart metering, smart building and precision agriculture, among many other applications.

IC Insights will release its 20th anniversary edition of The McClean Report in January of next year.  The following represents a portion of the memory forecast that will appear in the new report.

After increasing by more than 20% in both 2013 and 2014, the memory market fell upon difficult times in 2015. Conditions that would normally be seen as favorable for boosting demand and increasing prices for memory devices such as supplier consolidation, limited capacity expansion, and a growing list of emerging applications did not prop up the market at all in 2015.   Instead, slow system demand in personal computers led to excess inventory and steep price cuts in the second half of 2015. This resulted in a 3% decline to $78.0 billion for the 2015 memory market. These same weak market conditions carried into the first half of 2016, but then memory prices began to firm in the second half of the year and the market finished the year on a strong note, though still down 1% year over year.

Looking to 2017, IC Insights’ forecast the total memory IC market will increase 10% to a new record high of $85.3 billion as gains in average selling prices for DRAM and NAND flash help boost total memory sales. Increases in the memory market are forecast to continue each year through the forecast, with sales topping $100.0 billion for the first time in 2020 and then reaching nearly $110.0 billion in 2021 (Figure 1).

From 2016-2021, the average annual growth rate for the memory market is forecast to be 7.3%; about 2.4 points more than the total IC market CAGR during this same time.  Memory units are expected to grow by a CAGR of 5.6%. Playing a bigger role in memory market growth through 2021 will be strengthening average selling prices (ASPs).  Memory market ASPs fell 3% in 2015 and declined another 10% in 2016 but are expected to increase in all but one year (2020) through the forecast at an average annual rate of 1.8%.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The DRAM market, which was the catalyst for strong total memory market growth in 2013 and 2014, tumbled 3% in 2015 and another 10% in 2016, dragging the total memory market down with it in both years (Figure 1).  For 2017, IC Insights forecasts a strong increase in DRAM average selling prices, which is expected to lift the DRAM market to 11% growth.   The NAND flash memory market—the only memory segment to show an increase in 2016—is expected to grow 10% in 2017.  Together, DRAM and NAND flash are forecast to help propel the total memory IC market up 10% in 2017.

By Christian G. Dieseldorff, Industry Research & Statistics Group at SEMI 

Data from SEMI’s recently updated World Fab Forecast report reveal that 62 new Front End facilities will begin operation between 2017 and 2020.  This includes facilities and lines ranging from R&D to high volume fabs, which begin operation before high volume ramp commences.  Most of these newly operating facilities will be volume fabs; only 7 are R&Ds or Pilot facilities.

Between 2017 and 2020, China will see 26 facilities and lines beginning operation, about 42 percent of the worldwide total currently tracked by SEMI.  The majority of the facilities starting operation in 2018 are Chinese-owned companies. The peak for China in 2018 comes mainly from foundry facilities (54 percent). The Americas region follows with 10 facilities, and Taiwan with 9 facilities. See Figure 1.

Figure 1 depicts the regions in which new facilities will begin operation.

Figure 1 depicts the regions in which new facilities will begin operation.

By product type, the forecast for new facilities and lines include: 20 (32 percent) are forecast to be foundries, followed by 13 Memory (21 percent), seven LED (11 percent), six Power (10 percent) and five MEMS (8 percent). See Figure 2

Figure 2: New facilities & lines starting operation by product type from 2017 to 2020

Figure 2: New facilities & lines starting operation by product type from 2017 to 2020

Because the forecast extends several years, it includes facilities and lines of all probabilities, including rumored projects and projects which have been announced, but have a low probability of actually happening.  See Table 1.

FabForecast-table1

 

Probabilities of less than 50 percent are considered unconfirmed, while a probability of 80 to 85 percent means that the facility is currently in construction mode.  Projects with 90 percent probability are currently equipping. As the forecast gets farther out, more of the projects have lower probabilities.

The projects under construction, or soon to be under construction, will be key drivers in equipment spending for this industry over the next several years — with China expected to be the key spending market.

SEMI’s World Fab Forecast provides detailed information about each of these fab projects, such as milestone dates, spending, technology node, products, and capacity information. Since the last publication in August 2016, the research team has made 249 changes on 222 facilities/lines.

The World Fab Forecast Report, in Excel format, tracks spending and capacities for over 1,100 facilities including future facilities across industry segments from Analog, Power, Logic, MPU, Memory, and Foundry to MEMS and LEDs facilities.  Using a bottoms-up approach methodology, the SEMI Fab Forecast provides high-level summaries and graphs, and in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab.

The SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses.  The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment. Also check out the Opto/LED Fab Forecast.

Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats.

IC Insights has just released its new Global Wafer Capacity 2017-2021—Detailed Analysis and Forecast of the IC Industry’s Wafer Fab Capacity report.  Shown below is a brief excerpt from that report.

Prior to 2008, the 200mm wafer was used in more cases for manufacturing ICs than any other wafer size.  However, since 2008, the majority of IC fabrication has taken place on 300mm wafers.  Rankings of IC manufacturers by installed capacity for each of the wafer sizes are shown in Figure 1.  The chart also compares in a relative manner the amounts of capacity held by the top 10 leaders.

installed capacity

Figure 1

Looking at the ranking for 300mm wafers, it is not surprising that the list includes only DRAM and NAND flash memory suppliers like Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix, and Toshiba/Western Digital; the world’s five largest pure-play foundries TSMC, GlobalFoundries, UMC, Powerchip, and SMIC; and Intel, the industry’s biggest IC manufacturer (in terms of revenue). These companies offer the types of ICs that benefit most from using the largest wafer size available to best amortize the manufacturing cost per die, and have the means to continue investing large sums of money in new and improved 300mm fab capacity.

The leaders in the 200mm size category consist of pure-play foundries and manufacturers of analog/mixed-signal ICs and microcontrollers.

The ranking for the smaller wafer sizes (i.e., ≤150mm) includes a more diversified group of companies. STMicroelectronics has a huge amount of 150mm wafer capacity at its fab site in Singapore, but the company has been busy converting this production to 200mm wafers. Another STMicroelectronics 150mm fab in Catania, Italy, is also undergoing a conversion to 200mm wafers, with plans for that project to be completed in 2017.

A significant trend regarding the industry’s IC manufacturing base, and a challenging one from the perspective of companies that supply equipment and materials to chip makers, is that as the industry moves IC fabrication onto larger wafers in bigger fabs, the group of IC manufacturers continues to shrink in number (Figure 2).

Today, there are less than half the number of companies that own and operate 300mm wafer fabs than 200mm fabs. Moreover, the distribution of worldwide 300mm wafer capacity among those manufacturers is becoming increasingly top-heavy.

installed capacity 2

Figure 2

 

North America-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.55 billion in orders worldwide in November 2016 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.96, according to the November Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI.  A book-to-bill of 0.96 means that $96 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.

SEMI reports that the three-month average of worldwide bookings in November 2016 was $1.55 billion. The bookings figure is 4.0 percent higher than the final October 2016 level of $1.49 billion, and is 25.1 percent higher than the November 2015 order level of $1.24 billion.

The three-month average of worldwide billings in November 2016 was $1.61 billion. The billings figure is 1.1 percent lower than the final October 2016 level of $1.63 billion, and is 25.2 percent higher than the November 2015 billings level of $1.29 billion.

“As 2016 comes towards a close, equipment spending is stronger than expected at the start of the year,” said Dan Tracy, senior director, SEMI. “Spending has been driven by 3D NAND, leading-edge foundry, and advanced packaging investments, and these segments are key for the expected spending growth in 2017.”

The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving averages of worldwide bookings and billings for North American-based semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Billings and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

 

Billings
(3-mo. avg)

Bookings
(3-mo. avg)

Book-to-Bill

June 2016

$1,715.2

$1,714.3

1.00

July 2016

$1,707.9

$1,795.4

1.05

August 2016

$1,709.0

$1,753.4

1.03

September 2016

$1,493.3

$1,567.2

1.05

October 2016 (final)

$1,630.4

$1,488.4

0.91

November 2016 (prelim)

$1,613.2

$1,547.2

0.96

Source: SEMI (www.semi.org), December 2016

In 2015, all economic indicators pointed to continued market growth for both industries, power electronics and LED, especially with IGBT modules boosted by EV/HEV industry and general lighting applications, a killer application for LEDs since 2012. To support this growth and answer the thermal management needs in power electronics and LED, lot of innovative technologies are emerging. According to Yole Développement (Yole), one of the most impressive technical developments is the convergence of thermal management for both sectors, LED and power electronics, particularly the materials used for thermal management. The thermal management convergence is driven by the applications, announces the “More than Moore” market research and strategy consulting company, Yole.

thermal management

Thermal Management Technology & Market perspectives in Power Electronics and LEDs report 
powered by Yole’s Power Electronics & LED teams, reviews insight into synergies between power electronics and LED for thermal management. It describes and analyzes drivers and challenges that are facing industrial companies. This latest report proposes an overview of the market trends and technology evolution including 2015-2021 market figures, technology status and technical roadmap analysis and more. Under this report, Yole’s analysts also offer business model and supply chain analysis across various materials used for thermal management.

A rapid convergence of key technologies is driving unprecedented change. In this dynamic environment, Yole’s goal is to understand their customers’ strengths and guide their success.

“Power electronics and LEDs are different industries that today face similar challenges”, explains Dr Pierric Gueguen, Business Unit Manager at Yole. And he adds:”Needs for green energy with lower CO2 emissions have led these industries to develop more efficient and smaller solutions.” At the device level, cost pressure and the need for better performance is pushing designers towards smaller and thinner chips, also leading to increased power density. Such power density targets in both power electronics and LEDs bring a convergence of thermal management requirements, supporting the development of new materials.

Among materials used for thermal management, Yole specifically investigated the market and technology evolution of die attach, substrates, baseplates/PCBs and encapsulants. Overall, the market for these materials was worth US$1.98 billion in 2015 and will grow to US$3.16 billion by 2021 at a CAGR of 6%.

“Their value proposition has the potential to bring business to their suppliers and key differentiating factors to device manufacturers,” commented Pierrick Boulay, Technology & Market Analyst at Yole.

“Power electronic modules represent a healthy market, worth about US$2.9 billion in 2015 and set to reach US$4.5 billion in 2021, growing at 9% CAGR,” explained Pierric Gueguen. In parallel, the LED packaging market reached US$15 billion in 2015, after years of strong growth led by LED TV and general lighting. However, price pressure will moderate growth in coming years, with a 3.4% CAGR leading to a market worth US$18.5 billion in 2021.

Power electronics and LEDs need the right materials to handle thermal management challenges. As those applications are driven by similar technical requirements, one technical solution can be adopted and developed for one industry before being used by another industry. “The 30% of the overall thermal management material market that is common to both LED and power electronics represents US$660 million in 2015”, announces Pierrick Boulay. “According to our estimations, such market segment will reach US$1014 million in 2021”. Moreover, another 30% can be reached by adapting existing technologies used in LED or power for the other application…

From perspectives ranging from manufacturers and material suppliers through to end users, market dynamics, drivers and challenges are presented in this report, for both power electronics and LEDs.
A detailed description of the thermal management report as well as other LED & Power Electronics reports Yole are available on i-micronews.com, reports section.

Today, SEMI updated the World Fab Forecast report revealing that 62 new Front End facilities are expected to begin operation between 2017 and 2020. The report has been the industry’s trusted data source for 24 years ─ observing and analyzing spending, capacity, and technology changes for all front-end facilities worldwide.

The 62 facilities and lines range from R&D to high-volume fabs.  Most of the newly operating facilities will be volume fabs; only seven are R&Ds or Pilot facilities.

Between 2017 and 2020, 26 facilities and lines begin operation in China, about 42 percent of the worldwide total currently tracked by SEMI.  The Americas region follows with 10 facilities, and Taiwan with 9 facilities.

Fab-Dec-2016

By product type, 32 percent are foundries, 21 percent are Memory, 11 percent LED, then Power, MEMS, Logic, Analog, and Opto, in decreasing order.

Between 2017 and 2020, the World Fab Forecast indicates that five facilities are unconfirmed, 10 are planned, 11 are announced, 26 are in construction and 10 are equipping. These numbers include facilities and lines of all probabilities, including unconfirmed projects and projects which have been announced, but may have a low probability of completion.

The projects under construction, or soon to be under construction, will be key drivers in equipment spending for this industry over the next several years — with China expected to be the key spending market.

SEMI’s World Fab Forecast provides detailed information about each of these fab projects, such as milestone dates, spending, technology node, products, and capacity information. Since the last publication in August 2016, the research team has made 249 changes on 222 facilities/lines. The report, in Excel format, tracks spending and capacities for over 1,100 facilities, using a bottoms-up approach methodology, and provides high-level summaries and graphs, with in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab. The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment, while the SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses; also check out the Opto/LED Fab Forecast. Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats.