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The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $28.9 billion for the month of November 2015, 0.3 percent lower than the previous month’s total of $29.0 billion and 3.0 percent down from the November 2014 total of $29.8 billion. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“Softening demand and lingering macroeconomic challenges continued to limit global semiconductor sales in November,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Despite these headwinds, the industry may narrowly surpass total annual sales from 2014 and is projected to post modest sales increases in 2016 and beyond.”

Regionally, month-to-month sales increased in China (1.0 percent), Europe (1.0 percent), and the Americas (0.3 percent), but decreased in Japan (-0.6 percent), and Asia Pacific/All Other (-2.4 percent). Compared to November 2014, sales were up in China (5.3 percent), but down in Asia Pacific/All Other (-4.1 percent), the Americas (-7.1 percent), Europe (-8.0 percent), and Japan (-8.6 percent).

November 2015

Billions

Month-to-Month Sales                               

Market

Last Month

Current Month

% Change

Americas

6.05

6.07

0.3%

Europe

2.91

2.93

1.0%

Japan

2.70

2.68

-0.6%

China

8.59

8.68

1.0%

Asia Pacific/All Other

8.73

8.52

-2.4%

Total

28.97

28.88

-0.3%

Year-to-Year Sales                          

Market

Last Year

Current Month

% Change

Americas

6.53

6.07

-7.1%

Europe

3.19

2.93

-8.0%

Japan

2.93

2.68

-8.6%

China

8.24

8.68

5.3%

Asia Pacific/All Other

8.88

8.52

-4.1%

Total

29.77

28.88

-3.0%

Three-Month-Moving Average Sales

Market

Jun/Jul/Aug

Sept/Oct/Nov

% Change

Americas

5.60

6.07

8.3%

Europe

2.81

2.93

4.5%

Japan

2.67

2.68

0.3%

China

8.23

8.68

5.4%

Asia Pacific/All Other

8.57

8.52

-0.6%

Total

27.88

28.88

3.6%

By Shannon Davis, Web Editor 

2015 was a year of unprecedented consolidation in the semiconductor industry, as well as a technological crossroads in Moore’s Law. Below is a round-up, based on reader popularity, of the most read stories on Solid State Technology from 2015.

1) 2015 outlook: Tech trends and drivers

Leading industry experts provided their perspectives on what to expect in 2015. 3D devices and 3D integration, rising process complexity and “big data” are among the hot topics.

2) Reframing the Roadmap: ITRS 2.0

The International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductor (ITRS) is being reframed to focus more on end applications, such as smartphones and micro-servers. Labeled ITRS 2.0, the new roadmap is a departure from a strong focus maintaining the path defined by Moore’s Law.

3) Freescale and NXP agree to $40B merger

Chipmaker NXP Semiconductors NV announced that it has agreed to buy Freescale Semiconductor Ltd for $11.8 billion and merge business operations. The combined enterprise values at just over $40 billion and will create a new leader in the auto and industrial semiconductor markets.

4) Samsung’s FinFETs are in the Galaxy S6!

The much-anticipated Samsung Galaxy S6 made an early appearance in Chipworks’ teardown labs last week, thanks to the diligent skills of their trusted logistics guru.

5) Moore’s Law to keep on 28nm

Scaling is now bifurcating – some scaling on with 28/22nm, while other push below 14nm.

6) More change for the chip industry

As if scaling to 7nm geometries and going vertical with FinFETs, TSVs and other emerging technologies wasn’t challenge enough, the emerging market for connected smart devices will bring more changes to the semiconductor sector. And then there’s 3D printing looming in the wings.

7) EUV: Unlike anything else in the fab

Imagine EUV lithography in high volume production. ASML has been working for years to make it happen. Earlier this year, ASML said that one of its major chip-manufacturing customers has placed an order for 15 EUV systems, including two that are set to be delivered before the end of this year. ASML did not name the customer, but it is almost certainly Intel (according to research firm IHS).

8) Apple Watch and ASE start new era in SiP

Back in April the Apple watch appeared in the Chipworks’ labs, and of course they pulled it apart to see its contents.

9) New AMS fab going to Marcy, NY

Austria-based ams AG, formerly known as Austriamicrosystem, announced plans to locate a new 360,000 ft2 fab in upstate New York at the Nano Utica site in Marcy, NY. The fab will be used to manufacture analog devices on 200/300mm wafers.

10) Historic era of consolidation for chipmakers

We are in a historic era for consolidation among semiconductor manufacturers. Solid State Technology compiled the latest consolidation news, as well as analysis on the implications for the industry.

11) Lithography alternatives: Why are they essential?

The availability of patterning alternatives in the lithography landscape represents a big opportunity to properly address the coming needs generated by the IoT.

12) A look ahead at IEDM 2015

In the second week of December, the good and the great of the electron device world made their usual pilgrimage to Washington D.C. for the 2015 IEEE International Electron Devices Meeting.

Bonus: Top Webcasts of 2015 – Available On Demand Now!  

How the IoT is Driving Semiconductor Technology

The age of the Internet of Things is upon us, with the expectation that tens of billions of devices will be connected to the Internet by 2020. This explosion of devices will make our lives simpler, yet create an array of new challenges and opportunities in the semiconductor industry. At the sensor level, very small, inexpensive, low power devices will be gathering data and communicating with one another and the “cloud.” On the other hand, this will mean huge amounts of small, often unstructured data (such as video) will be rippling through the network and the infrastructure. The need to convert that data into “information” will require a massive investment in data centers and leading edge semiconductor technology. 

Sensor Fusion and the Role of MEMS in the IoT

MEMS have quite different process and material requirements compared to mainstream microprocessor and memory types of devices. This webcast will explore the latest trends in MEMS devices – including sensor fusion and the important role that MEMS will play in the Internet of Things (IoT). Marcellino Gemelli, Head of Business Development at Bosch Sensortec will discuss how smart systems are enabled through sensor fusion. Karen Lightman, Executive Director of MEMS Industry Group (MIG), provided a “debrief” from the recent MEMS Technical Congress and a preview of a SEMICON West workshop focused on back-end challenges.

3D NAND Challenges and Opportunities

Flash memory has revolutionized the world of solid-state data storage, mainly because of the advent of NAND technology. However, from the technical point of view, this requires a major change in how these memories are being fabricated. This presentation discusses this (r)evolution as well as its major scaling limitations.

Resolve to stay up-to-date on industry news in 2016! Here’s how.

Mark Adams, President of Micron Technology

Micron Technology, Inc. today announced that President Mark Adams will resign for personal health reasons. He will remain with the company until February 1, 2016, to support the transition.

Adams joined Micron in June 2006 and has served as President since February 2012.

“Mark has been a stellar leader and contributor to Micron’s growth and success during his time with the company,” said Micron CEO Mark Durcan. “We thank him for his dedication and service and wish him the very best with his recovery and into the future.”

Micron Technology, Inc., is a global leader in advanced semiconductor systems. Micron’s portfolio of high-performance memory technologies—including DRAM, NAND and NOR Flash—is the basis for solid state drives, modules, multichip packages and other system solutions.

In 2015, Chinese state-owned, chip-design company Tsinghua Unigroup Ltd. tried unsuccessfully to buy Micron for $23 billion.

By Dr. Phil Garrou, Contributing Editor

At the 12th annual 3D ASIP [Architectures for Semiconductor Interconnect and Packaging] Conference, sponsored by RTI Int, in Redwood City CA last week, Professor Mitsumasa Koyanagi of Tohoku University and Dr. Peter Ramm of Fraunhofer EMFT were the conference’s first recipients of the “3DIC Pioneer Award”.

Conference Chair Dr. Phil Garrou from Microelectronic Consultants of NC commented, “Since we are now more than a decade into the concerted effort to commercialize 2.5 and 3DIC technology it seemed appropriate to look back and document who actually led the way in this technically challenging effort. After significant study, we are convinced that the research groups in Tohoku University and Fraunhoffer – Munich were not only the first in the field, but also have continued their studies to this day to help commercialize this important leading edge technology.”

Professor Koyanagi (left) and Dr. Ramm (right) accept                                                           3DIC Pioneering Award from conference chair Garrou.

Professor Koyanagi (left) and Dr. Ramm (right) accept 3DIC Pioneering Award from conference chair Garrou.

Profesor Koyanagi’s work started back with his seminal paper “Roadblocks in achieving 3-dimensional LSI” presented at the Symposium on Future Electronic Devices in 1989. His 1995 paper “Three dimensional Integration Technology Based on a Wafer Bonding Technique Using Micro Bumps” showed a process sequence similar to todays TSV etch, thin and bond for an image sensor circuit.

Dr. Ramm began his work in the early 1990s in collaboration with Siemens under the German sponsored R&D program “Cubic Integration – VIC”. Their paper “Performance Improvement of the Memory Hierarchy of RISC-Systems by Application of 3-D Technology,” which appeared in IEEE Trans on Components, Packaging and Manufacturing Technology in 1996 woke up the larger community to the possibilities of using 3DIC. A key patent from that era was USP 5,563,084 “Method of Making a 3 Dimensional Integrated Circuits” which issued in 1996.

Between 2015 and 2019, worldwide systems revenues for applications connecting to the Internet of Things will nearly double, reaching $124.5 billion in the final year of this decade, according to IC Insights’ new 2016 edition of its IC Market Drivers report.  During that same timeframe, new connections to the Internet of Things (IoT) will grow from about 1.7 billion in 2015 to nearly 3.1 billion in 2019 (Figure 1), based on the forecast in the new 450-page report, which examines emerging and major end-use applications fueling demand for ICs.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The new IC Market Drivers report shows about 30.0 billion Internet connections are expected to be in place worldwide in 2020, with 85% of those attachments being to web-enabled “things”—meaning a wide range of commercial, industrial, and consumer systems, distributed sensors, vehicles, and other connected objects—and 15% for electronics used by humans to communicate, download and receive streams of data files, and search for online information.  It was the opposite of that in 2000, with 85% of 488 million Internet connections providing human users with online access to the World Wide Web and the remaining 15% serving embedded systems, remote sensing and measurements, control, and machine-to-machine communications.

Strong double-digit increases in the Internet of Things market will drive up IC sales in IoT applications by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.9% between 2015 and 2019 to about $19.4 billion in the final year of this decade (Figure 2), according to the new report.  IoT applications will also fuel strong sales growth in optoelectronics, sensors/actuators, and discrete semiconductors (O-S-D), which are projected to rise by a CAGR of 26.0% between 2015 and 2019 to $11.6 billion in four years.  The new IC Market Drivers report shows microcontrollers and system-on-chip microprocessors topping integrated circuit sales growth with a CAGR of 22.3% in the next four years, followed by memories at 19.8%, application specific standard products (ASSPs) at 16.4%, and analog ICs at an annual growth rate of 12.7%.

Figure 2

Figure 2

In the 2014-2019 forecast period of the IC Market Drivers report, wearable systems are projected to be the fastest growing IoT application with sales increasing by a CAGR of 59.0%, thanks in great part to a 440% surge in 2015 due to the launch of Apple’s first smartwatches in 2Q15.  Sales of IoT-connected wearable systems are expected to reach $15.2 billion in 2019 compared to $1.5 billion in 2014 and about $8.1 billion in 2015.

Meanwhile, connected vehicles (passenger cars and light trucks) are expected to be the second fastest market category for IoT technology with revenues growing by a CAGR of 31.5% between 2014 and 2019 to $5.3 billion in the final year of this decade.

SEMI projects that worldwide sales of new semiconductor manufacturing equipment will decrease 0.6 percent to $37.3 billion in 2015, according to the SEMI Year-end Forecast, released today at the annual SEMICON Japan exposition.  In 2016, nominal positive growth is expected, resulting in a global market increase of 1.4 percent.

The SEMI Year-end Forecast predicts that wafer processing equipment, the largest product segment by dollar value, is anticipated to increase 0.7 percent in 2015 to total $29.5 billion. The “Other Front End” category (fab facilities, mask/reticle, and wafer manufacturing equipment) is expected to increase 20.6 percent in 2015. The forecast predicts that the market for assembly and packaging equipment will decrease by 16.4 percent to $2.6 billion in 2015 and that the market for semiconductor test equipment is forecast to decrease by 7.4 percent, totaling $3.3 billion this year.

For 2015, Taiwan, South Korea, North America, remain the largest spending regions, with investments in Japan approaching North American levels.  SEMI forecasts that in 2016, equipment sales in Europe will climb to $3.4 billion (63.1 percent increase over 2015). After a 13 percent contraction for Europe in 2015, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Infineon, Intel, and STMicroelectronics are all expected to significantly accelerate fab equipment spending in 2016, resulting in strong growth in the region in 2016.  In Rest of World, essentially Southeast Asia, sales will reach $2.5 billion (25.7 percent increase), the China market will total $5.3 billion (9.1 percent increase), and North America equipment spending will reach $5.9 billion (6.1 percent increase). The equipment markets in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are expected to contract in 2016.

The following results are given in terms of market size in billions of U.S. dollars:

Year_End_image_600px

The Equipment Market Data Subscription (EMDS) from SEMI provides comprehensive market data for the global semiconductor equipment market. A subscription includes three reports: the monthly SEMI Book-to-Bill Report, which offers an early perspective of the trends in the equipment market; the monthly Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (SEMS), a detailed report of semiconductor equipment bookings and billings for seven regions and over 22 market segments; and the SEMI Year-end Forecast, which provides an outlook for the semiconductor equipment market.

2016 bounce to modest gains


December 14, 2015

By Christian G. Dieseldorff, Industry Research & Statistics Group, SEMI

SEMI just published the latest quarterly update of its World Fab Forecast report.  While the year started with a positive outlook, the initial optimism has largely deflated, and the year will end largely flat. Fab equipment spending growth (new and used) for 2015 is expected to be 0.5 percent (US$ 35.8 billion). For 2016, spending is forecast to grow by 2.6 percent ($36.7 billion), with a possible continued upward trend.

Past trends prove again the close correlation of spending to global GDP and revenue.  The IMF predicted worldwide GDP to grow by 3.5 percent back in May, and has revised it down to only 3.1 percent.  Likewise, as of May, the year’s average revenue growth for the semiconductor industry was predicted to be in the mid- to high-single digits (according to ten leading market research firms).  Now these firms have revised their 2015 predictions to an average of just 1.3 percent.

Fab equipment spending (new, used and in-house) follows the same rollercoaster as revenue, and is now expected to grow by only 0.5 percent by the end of 2015, possibly 1 percent, according to SEMI.

Fab-Equipment-Spending

In 2015, 80 to 90 percent of fab equipment spending went to 300mm fabs, while only 10 percent was for 200mm or smaller.  SEMI’s recently published “Global 200mm Fab Outlook” provides more detail about past and future 200mm activities.

Cherish the Memory

Examining fab equipment spending by product type, Memory accounts for the largest share in 2015 and 2016. In 2015, DRAM spending was second in place but in 2016 3D Flash will, by far, outspend DRAM.

Most DRAM spending in 2015 went towards 21/20nm ramp.  In 2016, DRAM companies are expected to start risk production of 1xnm (for example, Samsung in 1H 2016; Hynix in 2H 2016; and Micron in 2016).

While 2015’s spending was dominated by DRAM, SEMI reports that 2016 will be dominated by Flash, mainly 3D-related architectures.  Capacity for 3D-NAND will continue to surge.  SEMI’s report tracks 10 major 3D producing facilities, with a capacity expansion of 47 percent in 2015 and 86 percent in 2016.

Foundry Segment Holds Steady

The Foundry segment is next in terms of the largest share of fab equipment spending in 2015 and 2016.  In general, the foundry segment shows steadier, more predictable spending patterns than other device product segments. The largest foundry player, TSMC, has a strong impact on the foundry industry.  In the second half of 2015, TSMC cut 2015 capex from $10.5 billion to $8 billion, due to a flagging market.  SEMI expects a stronger fourth quarter in 2015 for equipment spending for foundry as TSMC fulfills its capital expenditure for the year and we expect an increased capex in 2016.

TSMC recently announced revenue expectation for 2016 to be in double digits and expects to increase capex for 2016 as it ramps 16nm and adds initial 10nm capacity.

It’s Only Logical (and MPU)

Coming in third place in fab equipment spending, MPU had lower spending in 2015.  Intel revised its planned capex down four times, from $10 billion to $8.7 billion then to $7.7 billion, and finally to $7.3 billion, and it decided to delay the launch of 10nm products (Cannonlake) to 2H17.  Intel still announced lofty plans for 2016 capex, around $10 billion.  Especially in 2H16, spending will pick up for anticipated 10nm activities.

Meanwhile for Logic spending has been very strong in 2015, with 90 percent growth, driven by SONY’s CMOS image sensors.  This exuberant growth, however, is expected to slow down in 1H16.

Consequence of Consolidations: the End of Wild Times?

Between 2010 and 2014, change rates for equipment spending fluctuated wildly, from +16 percent in 2011 to -16 percent in 2012, -8 percent in 2013 to 15 percent in 2014. These drastic changes have been replaced by dampened spending growth rate for 2015 and into 2016.  Multiple reasons may apply: a more mature and lower growth industry, increased caution regarding capacity ramp, or perhaps the recent frenzy of consolidations further concentrating capex spending.  SEMI’s next quarterly publication, in February 2016, will give further insight into early indicators of 2017.  Will sedate, positive spending growth continue?

The SEMI World Fab Forecast Report in Excel format, tracks spending and capacities for 1,167 facilities across industry segments from Analog, Power, Logic, MPU, Memory, and Foundry to MEMS and LEDs facilities. It uses a bottoms-up approach methodology, providing high-level summaries and graphs and in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab.  Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats

The total production value of electronic systems is forecast to decrease 2% in 2015 to an estimated $1,423 billion, marking only the fourth time in history that the systems market registers a decline (previous years were 2001, 2002, and 2009).  Total electronic system sales are forecast to reach $1,614 billion in 2019, which represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1% from $1,454 billion in 2014.  Figure 1 compares the relative market sizes and projected growth rates of nine major systems segments covered in IC Insights’ recently released 2016 edition of its IC Market Drivers report.  These nine market categories represented approximately 70% of the estimated total production value of all electronic systems in 2015.

cellphone ic sales

Figure 1

 

Among individual end-use systems covered in detail in the 2016 IC Market Drivers report, cellphones expanded their lead over standard personal computers (desktops and notebooks) as the largest electronic systems market in 2015 after overtaking PCs for the first time in 2013.  Cellphones accounted for 18% of total electronics systems sales ($262.2 billion) versus about 13% for standard PCs ($187.4 billion) in 2015. Cellular phone sales are projected to rise by a CAGR of 2.9% in the 2014-2019 period, while standard PC revenues are expected to slump by an annual rate of -1.7%, partly due to longer upgrade cycles for standard PCs, the influx of tablet computers into the mix of computing platforms, and the growing use of smartphones to access the Internet.

The Internet of Things system market is forecast to show the highest average annual growth rate (21%) through 2019.  Aside from this one high-flying market, however, no other system category is forecast to average annual growth of more than 7%.  In fact, the standard PC, tablet, and game console system markets are forecast to decline through 2019.

Feed-forward can be applied for controlling overlay error by using Coherent Gradient Sensing (CGS) data to reveal correlations between displacement variation and overlay variation.

BY DOUG ANBERG and DAVID M. OWEN, Ultratech, San Jose, CA

As the semiconductor industry is fast approaching 10nm design rules, there are many difficulties with process integration and device yield. Lithography process control is expected to be a major challenge requiring overlay control to a few nanometers. There are many factors that impact the overlay budget that can be broadly categorized as those arising from the reticle, the lithography tool and wafer processing. Typically, overlay budget components associated with the reticle and lithography tool can be characterized and are relatively stable. However, as published elsewhere, process-based sources of surface displacement can contribute to the lithography overlay budget, independent of the lithography process (e.g., etch, anneal, CMP). Wafer-shape measurement can be implemented to characterize process-induced displacements. The displacement information can then be used to monitor specific processes for excursions or be modeled in terms of parameters that can be fed-forward to correct the lithography process for each wafer or lot.

The implementation of displacement feed-forward for overlay control requires several components, including: a) a system capable of making comprehensive surface displacement measurements at high throughput, b) a characterization and understanding of the relationship between displacement and overlay and the corresponding displacement variability, c) a method or system to integrate the displacement information with the lithography control system. The Coherent Gradient Sensing (CGS)technique facilitates the generation of high-density displacement maps (>3 million points on 300mm wafers) such that distortions and stresses induced shot-by-shot and process-by-process can be tracked in detail. This article will demonstrate how feed forward can be applied for controlling overlay error by using CGS data to reveal correlations between displacement variation and overlay variation.

High-speed, full-wafer data collection

Historically, patterned wafer surface inspection was limited to monitoring topography variations within the die area and across the wafer with the use of point-by-point measurements with low throughput, typically limiting measurements to off-line process development. Surface inspection of patterned wafers involving transparent films (e.g. SiO2 deposited films) was typically further limited to contact techniques such as stylus profilometry.

With CGS interferometry, a high-resolution front-surface topography map of a full 300 mm patterned wafer can be obtained for product wafers with an inspection time of a few seconds. Transparent films can typically be measured successfully without opaque capping layers due to the self-referencing attribute of the CGS interferometer. Essentially, CGS technology compares the relative heights of two points on the wafer surface that are separated by a fixed distance. Physically, the change in height over a fixed distance provides slope or tilt information and the fringes in a CGS interference pattern are contours of constant slope. In order to reconstruct the shape of the surface under investigation, interference data in two orthogonal directions must be collected. The slope data derived from the interference patterns is integrated numerically to generate the surface shape or topography. In-plane surface displacements in the x- and y-directions can then be computed from the surface topography using fundamentals of plate theory (FIGURE 1).

Fig 1-a Fig 1-b Fig 1-c

FIGURE 1. Example of the analysis of the uniform and non-uniform stress components of the displacement field: (a) total displacement computed from the x-direction slope, (b) uniform stress component of the displacement field determined from the best-fit plane to the data in (a), (c) non- uniform stress component of the displacement field.

To best utilize the capabilities of CGS technology for determining stress-induced displacement impacting critical layer overlay budgets, a “Post minus Pre” inspection strategy is typically employed, where two measurements of a wafer are taken: one prior to the process step or module of interest (the pre-process map), and a second measurement is taken on the same wafer after completing the process step or module (the post-process map). The pre-process topography map is then mathematically subtracted from the post-process topography map, providing detailed, high resolution information about the topography variation in the process step or module of interest. A series of topography maps illustrating the “Post minus Pre” process is shown in FIGURE 2.

FIGURE 2. Example of “Post minus Pre” topography CGS measurement.

FIGURE 2. Example of “Post minus Pre” topography CGS measurement.

The surface displacements directly impact the relative position of all points on the wafer surface, leading to potential alignment errors across the wafer at the lithography step. By measuring the evolution of process-induced stresses and displacement across multiple steps in a process flow, the overlay error due to the accumulated stress changes from those process steps can be evaluated, and the cumulative displacement can be calculated. The displacement error can then be fed forward to the lithography tool for improved overlay correction during the exposure process.

In the simplest implementation of this approach, the pre-process or reference measurement would be made following the prior lithography step, whereas the post- processing measurement would be made just before the lithography step of interest. In this manner, the total displacement induced between two lithography steps can be characterized and provided to the lithography system for overlay correction.

Stress and displacement process fingerprinting

By using CGS-based inspection to generate full-wafer topography, displacement and stress, detailed information can be provided for both off-line process monitoring (SPC), or in-line, real-time monitoring (APC) of process steps with significant process induced stress and displacement. A key consequence of the monitoring flexibility afforded by the measurement is the ability to characterize and compare within- wafer displacement and stress fingerprints of individual process chambers in a manufacturing line.

Target-based overlay metrology systems have historically been used as the only metrology tool to measure overlay error at critical lithography layers. Overlay data from the target-based overlay tools is collected after the wafer exposure step and is fed-backward to correct for the measured overlay error for subsequent wafers. As process- induced displacement errors are becoming a significant percentage of the layer-to-layer overlay budget, this post processing feed-back approach for overlay correction may not be sufficient to meet critical layer overlay specifications. Furthermore, overlay errors are often larger near the edge of the wafer where traditional overlay metrology target densities are typically low, providing only limited data for overlay correction.

The implementation of displacement feed-forward overlay correction can be
used to account for wafer-to-wafer and within-wafer distortions prior to lithography. The displacements can be characterized using an appropriate model and the model coefficients, or correctables, can be provided to the lithography tool for adjustment and control on a wafer-by-wafer basis. As shown in FIGURE 3, the CGS technique has the additional advantage of providing high-data density near the edge of the wafer (typically > 75,000 data points beyond 145 mm, sub-sampled in the Fig. 3 vector map for clarity), such that more accurate corrections can be determined where the overlay errors tend to be largest. As a result, lithography rework can be reduced and productivity increased. Case studies have revealed that a significant improvement in overlay can be achieved using this approach.

FIGURE 3. Vector displacement map showing process-induced edge distortion.

FIGURE 3. Vector displacement map showing process-induced edge distortion.

For each critical lithography step, a correlation is typically generated by comparing the traditional overlay measurement tool results to the surface displacement measured by the CGS measurement tool. Recognizing that displacement is only one component of the total overlay measurement, correlation of overlay to displacement requires effort to model or characterize the non-displacement components of the measured overlay. As a result, the appropriate correlation is derived by comparing total overlay to displacement plus the non-displacement overlay sources.

FIGURE 4 shows plots of total overlay versus displacement plus modeled non-displacement overlay sources for multiple locations on a single wafer processed in a leading-edge device flow. Figure 4a shows the x-direction data, whereas Fig. 4b shows the y-direction data. The data is presented in arbitrary units, however the same reference value in nanometers was used to normalize each set of data. The displacement data was evaluated at the same locations as the overlay target positions. For both the x-direction and y-direction data, the point-to-point correlation indicates good correlation with the correlation coefficients of 0.70 and 0.76, respec- tively. The RMS of the residuals of the linear fit to each data set are on the order of 1.5 to 2.0 nm.

Fig 4a

Fig 4b

FIGURE 4. Within-wafer (point-to-point) correlation of conventional overlay data and displacement data for the (a) x-direction and (b) y-direction.

FIGURE 5 similarly shows the wafer-to-wafer variation for overlay and displacement for the x-direction (Fig. 5a) and y-direction (Fig. 5b). The data in Fig. 5 are from multiple lots for the same lithography process evaluated to generate the data in Fig. 4. As with the point-to-point data, the wafer-to-wafer data shows strong correlation with correlation coefficients of 0.94 and 0.90 for the x-direction and y-direction, respectively.

Fig 5a Fig 5b

FIGURE 5.Wafer-level correlation between conventional overlay, |mean| + 3 sigma and displacement, |mean| + 3 sigma for a leading-edge process in the (a) x-direction and (b) y-direction.

The data in Figs. 4 and 5 illustrate key points regarding the correlation of overlay to displacement. First, the inherent variability of an advanced lithography process is typically on the order of 1 to 2nm. As a result, it is reasonable to conclude that the most of the scatter shown in Fig. 4 is likely associated with the variability in non-displacement sources of overlay variation. Second, the modeling or empirical characterization of non-displacement overlay sources is useful to the extent to which those non-displacement sources are constant. Consequently, if such modeling is part of the displacement feed-forward scheme in an effort to predict overlay, the model must account for known variations in the lithography process. A simple example is varia- tions in overlay performance due to differences between lithography chucks.

Displacement feed forward

It has been shown elsewhere that stress induced displacement can account for a significant fraction of the overlay error for certain critical layers at the 40nm node and below. It is therefore critical to develop the tools necessary for utilizing the measured displacement data for real-time in-line feed forward overlay correction to the scanner. One approach to this solution is to develop a system that allows the user to define the level of correction to be applied to the scanner for each lot, wafer or within-wafer zone.

FIGURE 6 shows a simplified schematic for a combined displacement feed-forward and image placement error feed-back approach. Once the process induced displacement for a specific set of process steps has been measured and correlated to overlay error, the measured displacement can be “fed forward” to the scanner in combination with traditional image placement error feedback techniques to further improve critical layer scanner overlay results. This approach is currently being implemented in leading-edge memory fabs to further reduce overlay errors on critical lithography levels and improve overall device yield.

Summary

The measurement of process-induced surface displacement can be an effective part of the overlay control strategy for critical layers at leading edge process nodes. CGS technology provides a method to comprehensively measure these displacements at any point in the process flow. Using a full-wafer interferometer, this system measures the patterned wafer surface in a few seconds and provides a map with up to 3,000,000 data points. This enables 100% in-line monitoring of individual wafers for in-situ stress and process induced surface displacement measurements. Its self-referencing interferometer allows the inspection to be made on any type of surface or films stack, and does not require a measurement target. This capability is currently being employed in numerous leading-edge memory and logic processes.

DOUG ANBERG currently serves as Ultratech’s Vice President of Advanced Lithography Applications; DAVID M. OWEN has been the Chief Technologist for Surface Inspection at Ultratech since 2006. Prior to joining Ultratech, Dr. Owen spent nearly a decade as a research scientist at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) in Pasadena, and was the Founder and Chief Technology Officer for Oraxion Diagnostics.

Worldwide semiconductor fab equipment capital expenditure growth (new and used) for 2015 is expected to be 0.5 percent (total capex of US$35.8 billion), increasing another 2.6 percent (to a total of $36.7 billion) in 2016, according to the latest update of the quarterly SEMI World Fab Forecast report.

SEMI reports that in 2015, Korea outspent all other countries ($9.0 billion) on front-end semiconductor fab equipment, and is expected to drop to second place in 2016 as Taiwan takes over with the largest capex spending at $8.3 billion. In 2015, Americas ranked third in overall regional capex spending with about $5.6 billion and is forecast to increase only slightly to (5.1 percent) in 2016.

fab equipment spending 2016

In 2015, 80 to 90 percent of fab equipment spending went to 300mm fabs, while only 10 percent was for 200mm or smaller.  SEMI’’s recently published “Global 200mm Fab Outlook” provides more detail about past and future 200mm activities.

Examining fab equipment spending by product type, Memory accounts for the largest share in 2015 and 2016.  While 2015’s spending was dominated by DRAM, the SEMI World Fab Forecast reports that 2016 will be dominated by Flash, mainly 3D-related architectures.  Capacity for 3D-NAND will continue to surge. SEMI’’s report tracks 10 major 3D producing facilities, with a capacity expansion of 47 percent in 2015 and 86 percent in 2016.

The Foundry segment is next in terms of the largest share of fab equipment spending in 2015 and 2016.  In general, the foundry segment shows steadier, more predictable spending patterns than other device product segments. Coming in third place in fab equipment spending, MPU had lower spending in 2015.  Logic spending was very strong in 2015, with 90 percent growth, driven by SONY’s CMOS image sensors.

Throughout 2015, SEMI anticipates that there will be 1,167 facilities worldwide investing in semiconductor equipment in 2016, including 56 future facilities across industry segments from Analog, Power, Logic, MPU, Memory, and Foundry to MEMS and LEDs facilities. For further details, please reference to the latest edition of SEMI’s World Fab Forecast report.