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By Jay Chittooran, Manager, Public Policy, SEMI

International trade is one of the best tools to spur growth and create high-skill and high-paying jobs. Over 40 million American jobs rely on trade, and this is particularly true in the semiconductor supply chain. Over the past three decades, the semiconductor industry has averaged nearly double-digit growth rates in revenue and, by 2030, the semiconductor supply chain is forecast to reach $1 trillion. Trade paves the way for this growth.

Unfortunately, despite its importance to the industry, trade has been transformed from an economic issue into a political one, raising many new trade challenges to companies throughout the semiconductor industry.

GHz-ChinaChina’s investments in the industry will continue to anchor the country as a major force in the semiconductor supply chain. China’s outsized spending has spawned concern among other countries about the implications of these investments. According to SEMI’s World Fab Forecast, 20 fabs are being built in China – and construction on 14 more is rumored to begin in the near term – compared to the 10 fabs under construction in the rest of the world. China is clearly outpacing the pack.

The Trump Administration has levied intense criticism of China, citing unfair trade practices, especially related to intellectual property issues. The U.S. Trade Representative has launched a Section 301 investigation into whether China’s practice of forced technology transfer has discriminated against U.S. consumers. Even as the probe unfolds, expectations are growing that the United States will take action against China, raising fears of not only possible retaliation in time but rising animosity between two trading partners that rely deeply on each other.

A number of other open investigations also cloud the future. The Administration launched two separate Section 232 investigations into steel and aluminum industry practices by China, claiming Chinese overproduction of both items are a threat to national security. The findings from these investigations will be submitted to the President, who, in the coming weeks, will decide an appropriate response, which could include imposing tariffs and quotas.

Another high priority area is Korea. While U.S. threats to withdraw from the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) reached a fever pitch in August, rhetoric has since tempered. Informal discussions between the countries on how best to amend the trade deal are ongoing. The number of KORUS implementation issues aside, continued engagement with Korea – instead of scrapping a comprehensive, bilateral trade deal – will be critically important for the industry.

Lastly, negotiations to modernize the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will continue this year. The United States wants to conclude talks by the end of March, but with the deadline fast approaching and the promise of resolution waning, tensions are running high. Notably, the outcome of the NAFTA talks will inform and set the tone for other trade action.

What’s more, a number of other actions on trade will take place this year. As we wrote recently, Congress has moved to reform the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a government body designed to review sales and transfer of ownership of U.S. companies to foreign entities. Efforts have also started to revise the export control regime – a key component to improving global market access and making international trade more equitable.

SEMI will continue its work on behalf of its members around the globe to open up new markets and lessen the burden of regulations on cross-border trade and commerce. In addition, SEMI will continue to educate policymakers on the critical importance of unobstructed trade in continuing to push the rapid advance of semiconductors and the emerging technologies they enable into the future. If you are interested in more information on trade, or how to be involved in SEMI’s public policy program, please contact Jay Chittooran, Manager, Public Policy, at [email protected].

Year End Wow!


January 24, 2018

By Walt Custer, Custer Consulting Group

Strong year-end 2017 electronic equipment sales

2017 ended on a high note from an end market perspective thanks to:

  • Geographically broad economic strength and new products
  • Record high December electronic equipment production and shipments in China/Taiwan
  • Peak electronic equipment production in the Eurozone in November
  • A 4Q upturn in U.S. bookings and shipments of electronic equipment

Custer1-World-Electronic-Equipment-Monthly-Shipments

Based upon preliminary data, mobile phones including the Apple iPhone X were major contributors to the fourth-quarter 2017 strength in Asia/Pacific. Foxconn registered all-time record sales in December.

By comparison, personal computer sales were flat when adjusted for normal seasonality.

Early information indicates that December global equipment revenues were up almost 24 percent over December 2016 and up 3 percent sequentially over November 2017.

Resilient semiconductor supply chain

Semiconductors and SEMI equipment have a strong growth in this current business cycle (Chart 2), mainly due to strong memory demand and price increases for chips, and also robust capital equipment spending to increase memory chip capacity.

Custer2-World-Semiconductor-SEMI-Equipement-Shipments

 

By November this sales growth appeared to be plateauing (but at record levels).

On a 3/12 basis (Chart 3) world growth was:

Semiconductors +21.5% November
SEMI equipment +28.4% November
Taiwan Chip Foundries +6.1% December
Electronic Equipment +4.9% September

Custer3-Supply-Chain-Dynamics
Despite a likely moderation of the current SEMI equipment and chip growth rates, this current business cycle has been robust and prolonged. End market electronic equipment demand remains strong and new volume markets are emerging. However SEMI equipment and semiconductor sales are much more volatile than electronic equipment, so the current landscape could change quickly.

Looking forward

The global PMI is an excellent short-term leading indicator. It was at an all-time record high in December, pointing to an unseasonably strong first quarter of 2018. Keep watching the business cycles for any signs of abrupt change. Currently we are on a high plateau but conditions could change quickly.

Custer4-Purchasing-Managers-Index

Originally published on the SEMI blog.

Worldwide semiconductor revenue is forecast to total $451 billion in 2018, an increase of 7.5 percent from $419 billion in 2017, according to Gartner, Inc. This represents a near doubling of Gartner’s previous estimate of 4 percent growth for 2018.

“Favorable market conditions for memory sectors that gained momentum in the second half of 2016 prevailed through 2017 and look set to continue in 2018, providing a significant boost to semiconductor revenue,” said Ben Lee, principal research analyst at Gartner. “Gartner has increased the outlook for 2018 by $23.6 billion compared with the previous forecast, of which the memory market accounts for $19.5 billion. Price increases for both DRAM and NAND flash memory are raising the outlook for the overall semiconductor market.”

However, these price increases will put pressure on margins for system vendors of key semiconductor demand drivers, including smartphones, PCs and servers. Gartner predicts that component shortages, a rising bill of materials (BOM) and the resulting prospect of having to raise average selling prices (ASPs) will create a volatile market through 2018.

Despite the upward revision for 2018, the quarterly growth profile for 2018 is expected to fall back to a more normal pattern with a mid-single-digit sequential decline in the first quarter of the year, followed by a recovery and buildup in both the second and third quarters of 2018, and a slight decline in the fourth quarter.

On January 3, a security vulnerability that spans all microprocessor vendors was revealed, impacting nearly all types of personal and data center computing devices. While this is an obscure security vulnerability that is difficult to achieve, the potential of a high-impact security issue cannot be ignored and must be mitigated.

“The current mitigation solution is via firmware and software updates, and has a potential processor performance impact. This may result in an increased demand for high-performance data center processors in the short term, but Gartner expects that in the longer term, microprocessor architectures will be redesigned, reducing the performance impact of the software mitigations and limiting the long-term forecast impact,” said Alan Priestley, research director at Gartner.

Taking the memory sectors out of the equation, the semiconductor market is forecast to grow 4.6 percent in 2018 (compared with 9.4 percent in 2017) with field-programmable gate array (FPGA), optoelectronics, application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) and nonoptical sensors leading the semiconductor device categories.

The other significant device category driving the 2018 forecast higher is application-specific standard products (ASSPs). The predicted growth in ASSPs was influenced by an improved outlook for graphics cards used in gaming PCs and high-performance computing applications, a broad increase in automotive content and a stronger wired communications forecast.

The mixed fortunes of semiconductor vendors in recent years serves as a reminder of the fickleness of the memory market,” said Mr. Lee. “After growing by 22.2 percent in 2017, worldwide semiconductor revenue will revert back to single-figure growth in 2018 before a correction in the memory market results in revenue declining slightly in 2019.”

The historic flood of merger and acquisition agreements that swept through the semiconductor industry in 2015 and 2016 slowed significantly in 2017, but the total value of M&A deals reached in the year was still more than twice the annual average in the first half of this decade, according to IC Insights’ new 2018 McClean Report, which becomes available this month.  Subscribers to The McClean Report can attend one of the upcoming half-day seminars (January 23 in Scottsdale, AZ; January 25 in Sunnyvale, CA; and January 30 in Boston, MA) that discuss the highlights of the report free of charge.

In 2017, about two dozen acquisition agreements were reached for semiconductor companies, business units, product lines, and related assets with a combined value of $27.7 billion compared to the record-high $107.3 billion set in 2015 and the $99.8 billion total in 2016 (Figure 1).  Prior to the explosion of semiconductor acquisitions that erupted several years ago, M&A agreements in the chip industry had a total annual average value of about $12.6 billion between 2010 and 2015.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Two large acquisition agreements accounted for 87% of the M&A total in 2017, and without them, the year would have been subpar in terms of the typical annual value of announced transactions.  The falloff in the value of semiconductor acquisition agreements in 2017 suggests that the feverish pace of M&A deals is finally cooling off.  M&A mania erupted in 2015 when semiconductor acquisitions accelerated because a growing number of companies began buying other chip businesses to offset slow growth rates in major end-use applications (such as smartphones, PCs, and tablets) and to expand their reach into huge new market opportunities, like the Internet of Things (IoT), wearable systems, and highly “intelligent” embedded electronics, including the growing amount of automated driver-assist capabilities in new cars and fully autonomous vehicles in the not-so-distant future.

With the number of acquisition targets shrinking and the task of merging operations together growing, industry consolidation through M&A transactions decelerated in 2017.  Regulatory reviews of planned mergers by government agencies in Europe, the U.S., and China have also slowed the pace of large semiconductor acquisitions.

One of the big differences between semiconductor M&A in 2017 and the two prior years was that far fewer megadeals were announced.  In 2017, only two acquisition agreements exceeded $1 billion in value (the $18 billion deal for Toshiba’s memory business and Marvell’s planned $6 billion purchase of Cavium).  Ten semiconductor acquisition agreements in 2015 exceeded $1 billion and seven in 2016 were valued over $1 billion.  The two large acquisition agreements in 2017 pushed the average value of semiconductor M&A pacts to $1.3 billion.  Without those megadeals, the average would have been just $185 million last year. The average value of 22 semiconductor acquisition agreements struck in 2015 was $4.9 billion.  In 2016, the average for 29 M&A agreements was $3.4 billion, based on data compiled by IC Insights.

By Dan Tracy and Ji-Won Cho, SEMI

2017 proved to be record-setting year for the semiconductor industry. According to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), worldwide semiconductor market will have grown 20 percent, exceeding $400 billion for the first time. Among all major product segments, memory is the strongest, with sales are on track to grow 60 percent year-over-year, contributing to 30 percent of worldwide semiconductor sales in 2017. The consensus is that the growth momentum in memory will continue in 2018, driven by stable market demand and a favorable pricing environment.

Korean memory makers are the biggest beneficiaries of this memory super cycle. According to the Korea International Trade Association (KITA), the memory export value from Korea grew 86 percent through November 2017 compared to a year earlier, indicating that Korean memory makers are gaining more market share. On the supply side of the market, both Samsung and SK Hynix saw record high capital expenditures in 2017, contributing to the revenue surge from Korean suppliers. The spending spree is expected to continue in 2018. Together, Samsung and SK Hynix are forecast to invest over $20 billion in fab tools worldwide in 2018. (Track fab projects in detail with the SEMI World Fab Forecast or SEMI FabView databases).

WFF-Dec2017-chart

Samsung’s anchor project in 2018 is the ramp of its new Fab P1 phase 2 line in Pyeongtaek. Samsung plans to add new 3D NAND as well as DRAM capacity at this fab, fortifying its leading position in memory market. Beyond 2018, Samsung’s Xian phase 2 plan is also underway for future expansion.

SK Hynix, on the other hand, will ramp up M14 fab in 2018, adding new capacity for both 3D NAND and DRAM. In the meantime, SK Hynix is building a new fab, M15, in Cheongju, Korea, for 3D NAND and Fab C3 in Wuxi, China, for DRAM.

Both of these leading memory makers plan to ride this memory cycle and intend to vault ahead of the competition. Future demand for 3D NAND will continue to be the strongest, driving new fab projects in Korea now and later in China. Nevertheless, DRAM supply will also see new capacity coming online this year, followed by rare new fab projects. Memory not only accounts for a major portion of worldwide semiconductor sales but will also propel the investment momentum in the coming years.

SEMICON Korea 2018

The strong memory growth sets the stage for SEMICON Korea, January 31 through February 2 in Seoul. The largest microelectronics event in Korea, with over 40,000 attendees expected, SEMICON Korea will focus on enabling participants to “Connect, Collaborate, and Innovate.”

Key SEMICON Korea highlights include:

  • The 1,919 booths are sold out as major equipment, materials, and subsystem/parts companies exhibit their new products and technology solutions at the show.
  • Industry giants including Samsung, Micron, Intel, Toshiba, Sony, SK Hynix and LAM Research will connect with Korean equipment, materials and subsystems/parts manufacturers through the Supplier Search Program.
  • Participation by engineers is expected to be strong this year, after more than 10,000 engineers from​ Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and DB Hitek attended SEMICON Korea 2017.

Major SEMICON Korea programs, including the following, will provide key insights into the Korea electronics manufacturing ecosystem:

  • Smart Automotive Forum
  • Smart Manufacturing Forum
  • Test Forum
  • SEMI Technology Symposium
  • Market Seminar

For a complete schedule of programs, visit www.semiconkorea.org/en/agenda-glance.

Worldwide semiconductor revenue totalled $419.7 billion in 2017, a 22.2 percent increase from 2016, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. Undersupply helped drive 64 percent revenue growth in the memory market, which accounted for 31 percent of total semiconductor revenue in 2017.

“The largest memory supplier, Samsung Electronics, gained the most market share and took the No. 1 position from Intel — the first time Intel has been toppled since 1992,” said Andrew Norwood, research vice president at Gartner. “Memory accounted for more than two-thirds of all semiconductor revenue growth in 2017, and became the largest semiconductor category.”

The key driver behind the booming memory revenue was higher prices due to a supply shortage. NAND flash prices increased year over year for the first time ever, up 17 percent, while DRAM prices rose 44 percent.

Equipment companies could not absorb these price increases so passed them onto consumers, making everything from PCs to smartphones more expensive in 2017.

Other major memory vendors, including SK Hynix and Micron Technology, also performed strongly in 2017 and rose in the rankings (see Table 1).

 

2017 Rank

2016 Rank

Vendor

2017 Revenue

2017 Market Share (%)

2016 Revenue

2016-2017 Growth (%)

1

2

Samsung Electronics

61,215

14.6

40,104

52.6

2

1

Intel

57,712

13.8

54,091

6.7

3

4

SK Hynix

26,309

6.3

14,700

79.0

4

6

Micron Technology

23,062

5.5

12,950

78.1

5

3

Qualcomm

17,063

4.1

15,415

10.7

6

5

Broadcom

15,490

3.7

13,223

17.1

7

7

Texas Instruments

13,806

3.3

11,901

16.0

8

8

Toshiba

12,813

3.1

9,918

29.2

9

17

Western Digital

9,181

2.2

4,170

120.2

10

9

NXP

8,651

2.1

9,306

-7.0

Others

174,418

41.6

157,736

10.6

Total Market

419,720

100.0

343,514

22.2

Source: Gartner (January 2018)

Second-placed Intel grew its revenue 6.7 percent in 2017, driven by 6 percent growth in data center processor revenue due to demand from cloud and communications service providers. Intel’s PC processor revenue grew more slowly at 1.9 percent, but average PC prices are on the rise again after years of decline following the market’s shift from traditional desktops toward two-in-one and ultramobile devices.

The current rankings may not last long, however, “Samsung’s lead is literally built on sand, in the form of memory silicon,” said Mr. Norwood. “Memory pricing will weaken in 2018, initially for NAND flash and then DRAM in 2019 as China increases its memory production capacity. We then expect Samsung to lose a lot of the revenue gains it has made.”

2017 was a relatively quiet year for mergers and acquisitions. Qualcomm’s acquisition of NXP was one big deal that was expected to close in 2017, but did not. Qualcomm still plans to complete the deal in 2018, but this has now been complicated by Broadcom’s attempted takeover of Qualcomm.

“The combined revenues of Broadcom, Qualcomm and NXP were $41.2 billion in 2017 — a total beaten only by Samsung and Intel,” said Mr. Norwood. “If Broadcom can finalize this double acquisition and Samsung’s memory revenue falls as forecast, then Samsung could slip to third place during the next memory downturn in 2019.”

By David W. Price, Douglas G. Sutherland and Jay Rathert

Author’s Note: The Process Watch series explores key concepts about process control—defect inspection, metrology and data analysis—for the semiconductor industry. This article is the first in a five-part series on semiconductors in the automotive industry. In this article, we introduce some of the challenges involved in the automotive supply chain. Future articles in the series will address specific process control solutions to those challenges.

In the 1950s less than 1% of the total cost of manufacturing a car was comprised of electronics. Today that cost can be more than 35% of the total and it is expected to increase to 50% by the year 2030.1 The rapid increase in the use of electronics in the automotive industry has been driven by four main areas:

  1. Systems monitoring and control (electronic fuel injection, gas-electric hybrids, etc.)
  2. Safety (anti-lock brakes, air bags, etc.)
  3. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (lane departure warning, parking assist, blind spot monitoring, adaptive cruise control, etc.)
  4. Convenience (satellite navigation, infotainment, etc.)

Semiconductor components are at the core of the electronics integrated in cars, and depending on the make and model, a modern car may require as many as 8000 chips.2 This number will only increase as autonomous driving gains popularity – additional electronic subsystems with their underlying ICs will power the sensors, radar and AI needed for driverless cars.

With over 88 million cars and light trucks produced every year,3 each with thousands of chips, the influence of the automotive industry on semiconductor manufacturing is starting to take hold. There is one simple fact about these thousands of chips found in a car: they cannot fail. Reliability is absolutely critical for automotive semiconductor components. Any chip that fails in the field can result in costly warranty repairs and recalls, can damage the image of the automaker’s brand – or at the extreme, can result in personal injury or even loss of life.

If the average car contains 5000 chips and the automaker produces 25,000 cars per day, then even a chip failure rate at the parts per million (ppm) level will result in more than 125 cars per day that experience reliability issues as a result of chip quality. With semiconductors as the top issue on automakers’ failure Pareto,4 Tier 1 automotive system suppliers are now demanding parts per billion (ppb) levels of semiconductor quality with an increasing trend toward a maximum number of “total allowable failure events” regardless of volume. Current methods for finding reliability failures are overly dependent on test and burn-in, and as a result, the quality targets are missed by orders of magnitude. Increasingly, challenging audit standards are pushing for reliability failures to be found at their source in the fab, where costs of discovery and corrective action are the lowest. To enter this growing market segment – or simply maintain share – IC manufacturers must aggressively address this inflection in chip reliability requirements.

Fortunately for semiconductor manufacturers, chip reliability is highly correlated to something they know very well: random defectivity.5 In fact, for a well-designed process and product, early-life chip reliability issues (extrinsic reliability) are dominated by random defectivity.6-12 A killer defect (one that impacts yield) is a defect that causes the device to fail at time t = 0 (final test). A latent defect (one that impacts chip reliability) is a defect that causes the device to fail at t > 0 (after burn-in). The relationship between killer defects (yield) and latent defects (reliability) stems from the observation that the same defect types that impact yield also impact reliability. The two are distinguished primarily by their size and where they occur on the device structure. Figure 1 shows examples of killer and latent defects that result in open and short circuits.

Figure 1

Figure 1. The same defect types that impact yield also affect reliability. They are distinguished primarily by their size and where they occur on the device’s pattern structure.

The relationship between yield and reliability defects is not limited to a few specific defect types; any defect type that can cause yield loss is also a reliability concern. Failure analysis indicates that the majority of reliability defects are, in fact, process-related defects that originate in the fab. Because yield and reliability defects share the same root cause, increasing yield (by reducing yield-related defects) will have the additional benefit of improving reliability.

The yellow line in figure 2 shows a typical yield curve. If we only consider chip yield, then at some point, further investment in this process may not be cost-effective and thus the yield tends to level off as time progresses. The blue dashed line in figure 2 shows the curve for the same fab making the same product. However, if they want to supply the automotive industry then they must also account for the costs of poor reliability. In this case further investment is warranted to drive down defect density even further, which will both increase yield and deliver the improved reliability required for automotive suppliers.

Figure 2. Yield curves (Yield versus Time) for different fab types. The yellow line is for non-automotive fabs where the major consideration is fab profitability. At some point the yield is high enough that it is no longer practical to continue trying to drive down defectivity. The blue dashed line is the yield curve that also factors in reliability. For IC products used in the automotive supply chain additional investment must be made to ensure high reliability, which is strongly correlated to yield.

Figure 2. Yield curves (Yield versus Time) for different fab types. The yellow line is for non-automotive fabs where the major consideration is fab profitability. At some point the yield is high enough that it is no longer practical to continue trying to drive down defectivity. The blue dashed line is the yield curve that also factors in reliability. For IC products used in the automotive supply chain additional investment must be made to ensure high reliability, which is strongly correlated to yield.

The change from being a consumer-grade chip supplier to an automotive supplier requires a paradigm shift at the fab management level. Successful semiconductor manufacturers who supply the automotive industry have long adopted the following strategy: The best way to reduce the possibility of latent (reliability) defects is to reduce the fab’s overall random defectivity levels. This means having a world class defect reduction strategy:

  1. Higher baseline yields
  2. Lower incidence of excursions
  3. When excursions do occur, quickly find and fix them inline
  4. Ink out suspicious die using die-level screening

 

These and other strategies will be addressed in forthcoming articles in this Process Watch automotive series.

 

About the Authors:

 

Dr. David W. Price and Jay Rathert are Senior Directors at KLA-Tencor Corp. Dr. Douglas Sutherland is a Principal Scientist at KLA-Tencor Corp. Over the last 15 years, they have worked directly with over 50 semiconductor IC manufacturers to help them optimize their overall process control strategy for a variety of specific markets, including automotive reliability, legacy fab cost and risk optimization, and advanced design rule time-to-market BKMs. The Process Watch series of articles attempts to summarize some of the universal lessons they have observed through these engagements.

 

References:

 

  1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/277931/automotive-electronics-cost-as-a-share-of-total-car-cost-worldwide/
  2. Senftleben and Froehlich, Aspects of Semiconductor Quality from an OEM Perspective, April 2017.
  3. http://www.businessinsider.com/2016-was-a-record-breaking-year-for-global-car-sales-and-it-was-almost-entirely-driven-by-china-2017-1
  4. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/consumer-reports-car-reliability-survey-2017/
  5. Price and Sutherland, “Process Watch: The Most Expensive Defect, Part 2,” Solid State Technology, July 2015.
  6. Riordan et al., “Microprocessor Reliability Performance as a Function of Die Location for a .25um, Five Layer Metal CMOS Logic Process,” 37th Annual International Reliability Physics Symposium Proceedings (1999): 1-11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/RELPHY.1999.761584
  7. Barnett et al., “Extending Integrated-Circuit Yield Models to Estimate Early-Life Reliability,” IEEE Transactions on Reliability, Vol. 52, No. 3., 2003.
  8. Shirley, “A Defect Model of Reliability,” 33rd Annual International Reliability Symposium, Las Vegas, NV, 1995.
  9. Kim et al., “On the Relationship of Semiconductor Yield and Reliability,” IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing, Vol. 18, No. 3, 2005.
  10. Roesch, “Reliability Experience,” Published lecture #12 for Quality and Reliability Engineering ECE 510 at Portland State University, 2013. http://web.cecs.pdx.edu/~cgshirl/Quality%20and%20Reliability%20Engineering.htm
  11. Shirley and Johnson, “Defect Models of Yield and Reliability,” Published lecture #13 for Quality and Reliability Engineering ECE 510 course at Portland State University, 2013. http://web.cecs.pdx.edu/~cgshirl/Quality%20and%20Reliability%20Engineering.htm
  12. Kuper et al., “Relation between Yield and Reliability of Integrated Circuits: Experimental results and Application to Continuous Early Failure Rate Reduction Programs,” Proceedings of the International Reliability Physics Symposium (1996): 17-21.

From the Internet of Things to the cloud to artificial intelligence, industries are seeing a new wave of technologies that have the potential to transform and significantly impact the world around us. For its latest white paper, business information provider IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO) surveyed its leading technology experts to find out how these technologies are coming together in new and powerful ways to fundamentally change businesses, fuel innovation, disrupt industries and create both threats and opportunities.

The top eight transformative technologies for the global technology market in 2018, as identified in the IHS Markit report, are as follows:

Trend #1: Artificial intelligence (AI)

AI has matured to the point where it is being used as a competitive differentiator in several industries, particularly in the smartphone, automotive and medical markets. Also, optimization for on-device versus cloud-based solutions is becoming an area of focus. Cloud AI has more computing power to analyze data as it utilizes deep learning algorithms, but there are potential issues around privacy, latency and stability. On-device AI, meanwhile, can help offset those dangers to some degree. For instance, smartphone users who deploy the built-in AI of their phones are able to store data locally and thus safeguard their privacy.

Trend #2: Internet of Things (IoT)

The global installed base of IoT devices will rise to 73 billion in 2025, IHS Markit forecasts show. Accelerating IoT growth in 2018 and movement through a four-stage IoT evolution — “Connect, Collect, Compute and Create” — will be the confluence of enhanced connectivity options with edge computing and cloud analytics.

Enhancements in IoT connectivity, such as low-power wireless access (LPWA) will drive growth. Moreover, technologies adjacent to the IoT will become increasingly sophisticated. Machine video and ubiquitous video will empower new types of visual analytics. And AI, the cloud and virtualization will help develop critical insights sourced from data at the so-called “edge” of computing networks. Applying AI techniques to data will drive monetization in the form of cost savings, greater efficiencies and a transition from product- to service-centric business models.

Trend #3: Cloud and virtualization

Cloud services will pave the way for technologically immature companies to utilize machine learning (ML) and AI, radically transforming their usage and understanding of data.

Trend #4: Connectivity

As the first 5G commercial deployments emerge, the story will focus on connectivity. However, the path to full 5G adoption and deployment is complicated, with new opportunities and challenges alike in store for mobile network operators, infrastructure providers, device manufacturers and end users. 5G represents a dramatic expansion of traditional cellular technology use cases beyond mobile voice and broadband, to include a multitude of IoT and mission-critical applications.

Trend #5: Ubiquitous video

The growing use of screens and cameras across multiple consumer- and enterprise-device categories, along with increasingly advanced broadcast, fixed and mobile data networks, is powering an explosion in video consumption, creation, distribution and data traffic. More importantly, video content is increasingly expanding beyond entertainment into industrial applications for medical, education, security and remote controls, as well as digital signage.

Trend #6: Computer vision

The increasing importance of computer vision is directly tied to the mega-trend of digitization that has been playing out in the industrial, enterprise and consumer segments. The proliferation of image sensors, as well as improvements in image processing and analysis, are enabling a broad range of applications and use cases including industrial robots, drone applications, intelligent transportation systems, high-quality surveillance, and medical and automotive.

Trend #7: Robots and drones

The global market for robots and drones will grow to $3.9 billion in 2018. The deeper underpinnings of the story, however, lie in the disruptive potential of robots and drones to transform long-standing business models in manufacturing and industry, impacting critical areas such as logistics, material picking and handling, navigational autonomy and delivery.

Trend #8: Blockchain

Blockchain enables decentralized transactions and is the underlying technology for digital currency such as bitcoin and ether. Blockchain-based services beyond financial services are already being developed and deployed and will continue to ramp in 2018. These include: the use of blockchain to improve advertising measurement and combat ad fraud; blockchain-based systems for distributing music royalty payments; and solutions to better track and manage electronics supply chains.

Through three quarters of calendar year 2017, market shares of top semiconductor equipment manufacturers indicate large gains by Tokyo Electron and Lam Research, according to the report “Global Semiconductor Equipment: Markets, Market Shares, Market Forecasts,” recently published by The Information Network, a New Tripoli-based market research company.

The chart below shows shares for the entire year of 2016 and for the first three quarters of 2017. Market shares are for equipment only, excluding service and spare parts, and have been converted for revenues of foreign companies to U.S. dollars on a quarterly exchange rate.

equipment shares

Market leader Applied Materials lost 1.3 share points, dropping from 28.2% in 2016 to 26.9% YTD (year to date). Gaining share are Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TEL), which gained 2.4 share points while rising from 17.0% in 2016 to 19.4% in 2017 YTD. Lam Research gained 1.6 share points and growing from a 19.0% share in 2016 to a 20.6% share in 2017 YTD.

On a competitive basis, Applied Materials competes against both competitors in conductor and dielectric etch equipment and in deposition equipment (atomic layer deposition [ALD] and non-tube low pressure chemical vapor deposition [LPCVD]). TEL also competes against Screen Semiconductor Solutions, which dropped 1.4 share points, in photoresist track and wet clean equipment.

According to SEMI, the industry consortium, semiconductor equipment grew 41% in 2017.

The year-end update to the SEMI World Fab Forecast report reveals 2017 spending on fab equipment investments will reach an all-time high of $57 billion. High chip demand, strong pricing for memory, and fierce competition are driving the high-level of fab investments, with many companies investing at previously unseen levels for new fab construction and fab equipment. See figure 1.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The SEMI World Fab Forecast data shows fab equipment spending in 2017 totaling US$57 billion, an increase of 41 percent year-over-year (YoY). In 2018, spending is expected to increase 11 percent to US$63 billion.

While many companies, including Intel, Micron, Toshiba (and Western Digital), and GLOBALFOUNDRIES increased fab investments for 2017 and 2018, the strong increase reflects spending by just two companies and primarily one region.

SEMI data shows a surge of investments in Korea, due primarily to Samsung, which is expected to increase its fab equipment spending by 128 percent in 2017, from US$8 billion to US$18 billion. SK Hynix also increased fab equipment spending, by about 70 percent, to US$5.5 billion, the largest spending level in its history. While the majority of Samsung and SK Hynix spending remains in Korea, some will take place in China and the United States. Both Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to maintain high levels of investments in 2018. See figure 2.

Figure 2

Figure 2

In 2018, China is expected to begin equipping many fabs constructed in 2017. In the past, non-Chinese companies accounted for most fab investments in China. For the first time, in 2018 Chinese-owned device manufacturers will approach parity, spending nearly as much on fab equipment as their non-Chinese counterparts. In 2018, Chinese-owned companies are expected to invest about US$5.8 billion, while non-Chinese will invest US$6.7 billion. Many new companies such as Yangtze Memory Technology, Fujian Jin Hua, Hua Li, and Hefei Chang Xin Memory are investing heavily in the region.

Historic highs in equipment spending in 2017 and 2018 reflect growing demand for advanced devices. This spending follows unprecedented growth in construction spending for new fabs also detailed in the SEMI World Fab Forecast report. Construction spending will reach all-time highs with China construction spending taking the lead at US$6 billion in 2017 and US$6.6 billion in 2018, establishing another record: no region has ever spent more than US$6 billion in a single year for construction.