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 Yole Développement (Yole) expects the IGBT market to go over US$ 5 billion by 2022 with a major growth coming from IGBT power module. The high performance that SiC and GaN materials can afford is already creating a battlefield with Silicon based IGBT. To overcome this thread, Si IGBT manufacturers need to look for prompt solutions as technologically update their systems for better efficiency or to increase their IGBT portfolio offer.

How is the IGBT market evolving for different applications? How will the IGBT market face the adoption of high performance WBG based devices?… Yole’s power electronics team proposes you today a new technology & market report titled IGBT market and technology trends 2017 report. Yole’s report presents an overview of the IGBT market including detailed forecasts and a new application section focused on energy storage systems. This analysis is also showing the status of the competitive landscape.

Figure 1

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The IGBT market represents a very promising bet for the next few years, announces the “More than Moore” market research and strategy consulting company: its analysts invite you to discover the latest IGBT technology trends and market challenges.

“The IGBT industry will follow power electronics’ growth pattern, mainly caused by the high volume automotive market, especially for the electrification of powertrains in EV/HEV ”, asserts Dr Ana Villamor, Technology & Market Analyst, Power Electronics at Yole Développement.

The EV/HEV sector has great growth prospects because it is still an emerging market with tremendous volume potential.

Another big sector for IGBT is clearly motor drives, which keep on growing, thanks to aggressive regulation targets. Yole Développement forecasts a 4.6% CAGR for motor drives from 2016 to 2022. Photovoltaics and wind are very dynamic markets with growth from huge installations being installed during the last few years. It is worth to say that China led the solar panel implementation in 2016, with an impressive 35 GW installed.

“There will be applications for SiC which will impact the IGBT market, for example it is highly possible that it will take over the automotive market”, comments Dr Ana Villamor. “However, we forecast that IGBTs will keep a significant market share in the power electronics industry and will not be replaced completely.”

In fact, even if the IGBT has almost reached its technological limit, new designs and new materials can still be used to improve system performance to overcome the WBG devices arrival. In coming years, there will be new IGBT designs from Infineon, Fuji or ABB coming into the market. Packages are being improved by different manufacturers to decrease parasitics and improve system efficiency. A clear example is the introduction of the embedded techniques for discrete IGBTs and overmolded solutions for IGBT modules to reduce size or increase functional density.

Currently, IGBT manufacturers can have wide voltage ranges in their portfolios, going from 400 V to 6.5k V. The 400 V IGBTs will directly compete with MOSFETs, whereas IGBTs with voltages higher than 600 V will compete with SJ MOSFETs and WBG devices, which exhibit advantages over IGBTs. Lower voltage IGBTs will not be developed since they do not show any advantage compared with MOSFETs.

As IGBTs is a mature technology, the supply chain is well established, with strong partnerships and companies well positioned in each level.

“Therefore, the main IGBT manufacturers that we included in our 2015 report are still in the IGBT best sellers, except ON Semiconductor, which has become one of the top five IGBT vendors after the acquisition of Fairchild at the end of 2016”, explains Dr Ana Villamor. “However, more companies are entering the IGBT market in order to capture added value, like Littelfuse, who just announced the agreement on the acquisition of IXYS Corporation.”

Following a substantial increase in semiconductor capital expenditures during the first half of this year, IC Insights raised its annual semiconductor capex forecast to a record high of $80.9 billion for 2017, a 20% increase from $67.3 billion in 2016. Previously, 2017 semiconductor capex was expected to grow 12% in 2017 to $75.6 billion.

A little over half of 2017 capex spending is forecast for wafer foundries (28%) and upgrades for NAND flash memory (24%), as shown in Figure 1. With a projected 53% increase in 2017, the DRAM/SRAM segment is expected to display the largest percentage growth in capital expenditures of the major product types this year. With DRAM prices surging since the third quarter of 2016, DRAM manufacturers are once again stepping up spending in this segment. Although the majority of this spending is going towards technology advancement, DRAM producer SK Hynix recently admitted that it can no longer keep up with demand by technology advancements alone and needs to begin adding wafer start capacity.

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Even with a DRAM spending surge this year, capital spending for flash memory in 2017 ($19.0 billion) is still expected to be significantly higher than spending allocated to the DRAM/SRAM category ($13.0 billion). Overall, IC Insights believes that essentially all of the spending for flash memory in 2017 will be dedicated to 3D NAND process technology, including production of 3D NAND at Samsung’s giant new fab in Pyeongtaek, South Korea.

Overall, capital spending for the flash memory segment is forecast to register a 33% surge in 2017 after a strong 23% increase in 2016. However, historical precedent in the memory market shows that too much spending usually leads to overcapacity and subsequent pricing weakness. With Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Intel, Toshiba/Western Digital/SanDisk, and XMC/Yangtze River Storage Technology all planning to significantly ramp up 3D NAND flash capacity over the next couple of years (and new Chinese producers possibly entering the market), IC Insights believes that the future risk for overshooting 3D NAND flash market demand is high and growing.

A discovery by two scientists at the Energy Department’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) could aid the development of next-generation semiconductor devices.

The researchers, Kwangwook Park and Kirstin Alberi, experimented with integrating two dissimilar semiconductors into a heterostructure by using light to modify the interface between them. Typically, the semiconductor materials used in electronic devices are chosen based on such factors as having a similar crystal structure, lattice constant, and thermal expansion coefficients. The close match creates a flawless interface between layers and results in a high-performance device. The ability to use different classes of semiconductors could create additional possibilities for designing new, highly efficient devices, but only if the interfaces between them can be formed properly.

Park and Alberi determined that ultraviolet (UV) light applied directly to the semiconductor surface during heterostructure growth can modify the interface between two layers. Their paper, “Tailoring Heterovalent Interface Formation with Light,” appears in Scientific Reports.

“The real value of this work is that we now understand how light affects interface formation, which can guide researchers in integrating a variety of different semiconductors in the future,” Park said.

The researchers explored this approach in a model system consisting of a layer of zinc selenide (ZnSe) grown on top of a layer of gallium arsenide (GaAs). Using a 150-watt xenon lamp to illuminate the growth surface, they determined the mechanisms of light-stimulated interface formation by varying the light intensity and interface initiation conditions. Park and Alberi found the UV light altered the mixture of chemical bonds at the interface through photo-induced desorption of arsenic atoms on the GaAs surface, resulting in a greater percentage of bonds between gallium and selenium, which help to passivate the underlying GaAs layer. The illumination also allowed the ZnSe to be grown at lower temperatures to better regulate elemental intermixing at the interface. The NREL scientists suggested careful application of UV illumination may be used to improve the optical properties of both layers.

The ConFab – an exclusive conference and networking event for semiconductor manufacturing and design executives from leading device makers, OEMs, OSATs, fabs, suppliers and fabless/design companies – announces the 2018 event will be held at THE COSMOPOLITAN of LAS VEGAS on May 20-23.

Pete Singer, Conference Chair of The ConFab and Editor-in-Chief of Solid State Technology had this to say, “The ConFab is a unique combination of business, technology and social interactions that make this industry gathering of influencers and leaders so valuable. In 2018, we will take a close look at the new applications driving the semiconductor industry, the technology that will be required at the device and process level to meet new demands, and – perhaps most importantly – the kind of strategic collaboration that will be required.” He also stated, “the key to continued business success for both guests and presenters will be the crucial insights that will be gained at the conference about critical market trends; and how to take advantage of emerging opportunities. Our goal is to “connect the dots” and how what’s going on in the end semiconductor application space (IoT, AI, 5G, VR, automotive, etc.) will ultimately impact semiconductor manufacturing and design.”

Keynotes, panel discussions and technical sessions on new technology needed in manufacturing will be a focal point of The ConFab 2018. Topics include: EUV, now entering volume production and ushering in a new era of patterning for the 7 and 5nm generations. And the many new materials being considered, transistors that are evolving from FinFETs to gate-all-around nanowires, on chip communication with silicon photonics emerging, and advanced packaging/heterogeneous integration as ever more critical. How semiconductors are playing an increasingly important role in the healthcare industry, will also be in the robust 2018 agenda.

The ConFab is a high-level, 3 1/2 day conference for decision-makers and influencers to connect, innovate and collaborate in multiple sessions, one-on-one private business meetings, and other daily networking activities. For more information, visit www.theconfab.com.

IC Insights has revised its outlook for semiconductor industry capital spending and presented its new findings in the August Update to The McClean Report 2017.  IC Insights’ latest forecast is for semiconductor industry capital spending to climb 20% this year.

Figure 1 shows the steep upward trend of quarterly capital spending in the semiconductor industry since 1Q16. Although there was a slight pause in the upward trajectory in 1Q17, 2Q17 set a new record for quarterly spending outlays.   Moreover, 1H17 semiconductor industry spending was 48% greater than in 1H16.  IC Insights believes that whether industry-wide capital spending in the second half of 2017 can match the first half of the year is greatly dependent upon the level of Samsung’s 2H17 spending outlays.

Not only has Samsung Semiconductor been on a tear with regard to its semiconductor sales, surging into the number one ranking in 2Q17, but the company has also been on a tremendous capital spending spree for its semiconductor division this year.  As depicted in Figure 2, Samsung spent a whopping $11.0 billion in capital outlays for its semiconductor group in 1H17, more than 3x greater than the company spent in 1H16 and only $300 million less than the company spent in all of 2016!   In fact, Samsung’s capital expenditures in 1H17 represented 25% of the total semiconductor industry capital spending and 28% of the outlays in 2Q17.

While the company has publicly reported that it spent $11.0 billion in capital outlays for its semiconductor division in 1H17 (a $22.0 billion annual run-rate), Samsung has been very secretive about revealing its full-year 2017 budget for its semiconductor group (it might be afraid of shocking the industry with such a big number!).  In 2012, the year of Samsung’s previous first half spending surge before 1H17, the company cut its second half capital outlays by more than 50%, from $8.5 billion in 1H12 to $3.7 billion in 2H12.  Will the company follow the same pattern in 2017?  At this point, it is impossible to tell.  IC Insights believes that Samsung’s full-year 2017 capital expenditures could range from $15.0 billion to $22.0 billion!

Figure 1

Figure 1

If Samsung spends $22.0 billion in capital outlays this year, total semiconductor industry capital spending could reach $85.4 billion, which would represent a 27% increase over the $67.3 billion the industry spent in 2016.

It is interesting to note that two of the major spenders, TSMC and Intel, are expected to move in opposite directions with regard to their 2H17 capital spending plans. TSMC spent about $6.8 billion in capital outlays in 1H17. If it sticks to its $10.0 billion budget this year, which it reiterated in its second quarter results, it would only spend about $3.2 billion in 2H17, less than half its outlays in 1H17. In contrast, Intel spent only about $4.7 billion in 1H17, leaving the company to spend about $7.3 billion in 2H17 in order to reach its stated full-year 2017 spending budget of $12.0 billion.

Figure 2

Figure 2

The “Global Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) Wafers Market 2017-2021” report has been added to Research and Markets’ offering.

The global gallium arsenide wafer market to decline at a CAGR of 11.9% during the period 2017-2021.

The report, Global Gallium Arsenide Wafer Market 2017-2021, has been prepared based on an in-depth market analysis with inputs from industry experts. The report covers the market landscape and its growth prospects over the coming years. The report also includes a discussion of the key vendors operating in this market.

The latest trend gaining momentum in the market is shutdown of 2G network. High-speed Internet has now become readily available worldwide. The data speed of a 4G connection is 10 times faster 3G data speed. This high-speed connectivity results in faster browsing, uninterrupted streaming of videos, and improved GPS performance. Thus, countries are now focusing on the adoption of 3G or 4G connectivity and shutting down 2G network spectrums.

According to the report, one of the major drivers for this market is the increasing adoption of smartphones. Shipments of smartphones will reach 2.16 billion units by 2021, which is a significant increase from around 1.6 billion units in 2016. The major driving factor responsible for this growth is the rising smartphone penetration in countries with high population density such as China, India, and Brazil. The growth in the shipment volume of smartphones will drive the demand for GaAs wafers used in mobile handsets, particularly for mobile power amplifiers.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today released the following statement from President & CEO John Neuffer in response to the Trump Administration’s decision to set in motion a process led by the United States Trade Representative to investigate China’s unfair trade practices.

“The U.S. semiconductor industry stands ready to work with the Trump Administration to protect American intellectual property and critical technology from theft or forced transfer in foreign markets.

“Intellectual property is the lifeblood of the semiconductor industry. Semiconductors are America’s fourth-largest export and underpin the entire economy. U.S. semiconductor companies invest nearly one-fifth of their revenue in research and development to stay at the forefront of innovation, and they should be able to compete in foreign markets without putting their critical IP at risk.

“While China is an important part of the global semiconductor value chain, SIA has long raised concerns about market-distorting aspects of its state-led industrial policy – such as forced technology transfer practices – that disadvantage U.S. companies and imperil their IP. A balanced, fair, objective, and thorough investigation aimed at ensuring that China meets its global trading obligations and that market forces determine competitive outcomes will be helpful to address these market-access issues.  

“The U.S. semiconductor industry looks forward to working with the Administration to address these challenges. Further, we expect this review will seek to find solutions consistent with international trading obligations and help ensure lasting American leadership in semiconductor technology.”

Worldwide semiconductor capital spending is projected to increase 10.2 percent in 2017, to $77.7 billion, according to Gartner, Inc. This growth rate is up from the previous quarter’s forecast of 1.4 percent, due to continued aggressive investment in memory and leading-edge logic which is driving spending in wafer-level equipment (see Table 1).

“Spending momentum is more concentrated in 2017 mainly due to strong manufacturing demand in memory and leading-edge logic. The NAND flash shortage was more pronounced in the first quarter of 2017 than the previous forecast, leading to over 20 percent growth of etch and chemical vapor deposition (CVD) segments in 2017 with a strong capacity ramp-up for 3D NAND,” said Takashi Ogawa, research vice president at Gartner.

According to Gartner’s latest view, the next cyclical down cycle will emerge in 2018 to 2019 in capital spending, compared with 2019 to 2020 in the previous quarter’s forecast. “Spending on wafer fab equipment will follow a similar cycle with a peak in 2018. While the most likely scenario will still keep positive growth in 2018, there is a concern that the growth will turn negative if the end-user demand in key electronics applications is weaker than expected,” said Mr. Ogawa.

Table 1: Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Spending and Equipment Spending Forecast, 2016-2020
(Millions of Dollars)

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Semiconductor Capital Spending

70,568.9

77,794.5

77,443.5

71,814.8

73,239.5

Growth (%)

9.1

10.2

-0.5

-7.3

2.0

Wafer Fab Equipment, Including Wafer-Level Packaging

37,033.1

43,661.0

43,690.4

40,515.8

41,342.7

Growth (%)

11.4

17.9

0.1

-7.3

2.0

Other Semiconductor Capital Spending

33,535.8

34,133.5

33,753.2

31,299.0

31,896.8

Growth (%)

6.8

1.8

-1.1

-7.2

1.9

Source: Gartner (July 2017)

This research is produced by Gartner’s Semiconductor Manufacturing program. This research program, which is part of the overall semiconductor research group, provides a comprehensive view of the entire semiconductor industry, from manufacturing to device and application market trends.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $97.9 billion during the second quarter of 2017, an increase of 5.8 percent over the previous quarter and 23.7 percent more than the second quarter of 2016. Global sales for the month of June 2017 reached $32.6 billion, an uptick of 2.0 percent over last month’s total of $32.0 billion, and a surge of 23.7 percent compared to the June 2016 total of $26.4 billion. Cumulatively, year-to-date sales during the first half of 2017 were 20.8 percent higher than they were at the same point in 2016. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“The global semiconductor industry has enjoyed impressive sales growth midway through 2017, posting its highest-ever quarterly sales in Q2 and record monthly sales in June,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Sales into the Americas market were particularly robust in June, and all regional markets saw growth of at least 18 percent year-over-year. Conditions are favorable for continued market growth in the months ahead.”

Regionally, sales increased compared to June 2016 in the Americas (33.4 percent), China (25.5 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (19.5 percent), Europe (18.3 percent), and Japan (18.0 percent). Sales also were up across all regions compared to last month: the Americas (5.1 percent), Europe (1.9 percent), China (1.5 percent), Japan (1.0 percent), and Asia Pacific/All Other (0.8 percent).

June 2017

Billions

Month-to-Month Sales                              

Market

Last Month

Current Month

% Change

Americas

6.27

6.59

5.1%

Europe

3.11

3.16

1.9%

Japan

2.95

2.98

1.0%

China

10.25

10.41

1.5%

Asia Pacific/All Other

9.43

9.50

0.8%

Total

32.00

32.64

2.0%

Year-to-Year Sales                         

Market

Last Year

Current Month

% Change

Americas

4.94

6.59

33.4%

Europe

2.68

3.16

18.3%

Japan

2.52

2.98

18.0%

China

8.29

10.41

25.5%

Asia Pacific/All Other

7.95

9.50

19.5%

Total

26.38

32.64

23.7%

Three-Month-Moving Average Sales

Market

Jan/Feb/Mar

Apr/May/Jun

% Change

Americas

5.96

6.59

10.5%

Europe

2.96

3.16

7.1%

Japan

2.84

2.98

4.8%

China

10.06

10.41

3.4%

Asia Pacific/All Other

9.02

9.50

5.4%

Total

30.84

32.64

5.8%

TECHCET CA, an advisory service firm providing electronic materials information, today announced that the silicon wafer supply for semiconductor device fabrication is forecasted to appreciably lag demand starting next year, and could remain in shortage through the year 2021 despite investments in China. Silicon wafer area demand is forecasted to steadily increase at a CAGR of ~3.1% over the 2016-2021 period to reach over 13,000 million square inches (MSI). Executives of silicon wafer suppliers have stated that average selling prices have remained too low to allow for investment in 300mm expansions, as detailed in a quarterly update to the TECHCET Critical Materials Report, “Silicon Wafers Market & Supply-Chain.”

The silicon wafer supply-chain is dominated by two suppliers–Shin-Etsu Handotai and SUMCO–combining to capture almost two-thirds of the global wafer market in 2016, and the top five representing over 92% of total revenues. The silicon wafer market is maturing as evidenced by recent mergers and acquisitions, the two most notable being the acquisition of SunEdison Semi by GlobalWafers (Taiwan) and the assumption of majority ownership of LG Siltron by SK Holdings (Korea).

“Over the last five years, the average selling price per square inch of semiconductor-grade silicon wafers has declined by about a third and more than a half from the 2007 level,” explained Michel Walden, lead author of the report and senior technology analyst with TECHCET. “However, current tightness in the supply-chain has led to greater stability and even price increases in some cases, all of which is likely needed for the long-term health of the wafer suppliers.”

Over the past few years, silicon suppliers decommissioned roughly 25% of the peak capacity for 200mm wafers. Of the remaining 200mm capacity, roughly 65% of the total demand is for epitaxial (epi) wafers, and a series of epi service companies have embraced this opportunity and provide a variety of layer configurations for their customers.