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Adding intelligence to materials and products facilitates the fully decentralized operations model associated with Industry 4.0.

BY FRANCISCO ALMADA LOBO, Critical Manufacturing, Moreira da Maia, Portugal

Industry 4.0 is coming. It is the next major industrial revolution that will re-define manufacturing as we know it today. But what does Industry 4.0 bring to benefit an industry that already has highly advanced sophisticated manufacturing techniques?

The semiconductor industry is currently not one of those embracing Industry 4.0. Some of the reasons for this are based around the far reaching supply chain the industry uses, some because of the size of batches is still large in some businesses, and some because the idea of gathering greater quantities of information from machines is really not a new concept for the industry. To understand the benefits of Industry 4.0 to semiconductor production, let’s first look at exactly what it is.

A little about Industry 4.0

Industry 4.0 takes innovative developments that are available today and integrates them to produce a modern, smarter production model. It merges real and virtual worlds and is based on Cyber-physical Systems (CPS) and Cyber-physical Production Systems (CPPS), as show in FIGURE 1. The model was created to increase business agility, enable cost-effective production of customized products, lower overall production costs, enhance product quality and increase production efficiency. It brings with it new levels of automation and automated decision making that will mean faster responses to production needs and much greater efficiency.

FIGURE 1. Industry 4.0 merges real and virtual worlds and is based on Cyber-physical Systems (CPS) and Cyber-physical Production Systems (CPPS)

FIGURE 1. Industry 4.0 merges real and virtual worlds and is based on Cyber-physical Systems (CPS) and Cyber-physical Production Systems (CPPS)

The Industry 4.0 model is inherently a de-centralized one with masses of data being transferred. The reduced cost of computer technology enables it to be embedded into shop floor materials and products. CPS then integrate computational networks with the surrounding physical world and its processes. Using the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), products will have the ability to collect and transmit data; communicate with equipment, and take intelligent routing decisions without the need for operator intervention. Cloud computing technology further gives a ready platform to store this data and make it freely available to systems surrounding it.

As CPPS compete to provide services to CPS devices a smart shop floor is created that acts as a marketplace. Adding communication and integration throughout the wider supply chain also means that different manufacturing facilities and even individual processes within a factory can compete for work; creating a Manufacturing as a Service (MaaS) model.

With hundreds of devices and shop floor entities producing information, Big Data and advanced analytics are also a major part of Industry 4.0. Simply collecting a lot of data doesn’t improve a factory’s performance. Advanced analytical software is needed to transform structured and unstructured data into intelligent, usable information. Having huge volumes of data also means this powerful software can be used to help predict production scenarios to further drive efficiencies and improve production strategy.

The intelligent operation and advanced analytics within Industry 4.0 will enable smarter decision making and provide the opportunity to further enhance processes. It will enable new products to be created, tested and introduced at a much faster rate with assured quality, consis- tency and reliability. The benefits are far reaching and so significant that this revolution will certainly come but the change will be gradual. To be sure not to be left behind, manufacturers will need to plan for the implementation of this predicted industrial revolution.

What does Industry 4.0 mean for semiconductor manufacturers?

For the semiconductor industry, the high cost of wafers make attaching electronic components to each wafer carrier or FOUP completely viable and presents huge benefits in increased production efficiency. Adding intelligence to materials and products facilitates the fully decentralized operations model associated with Industry 4.0 (FIGURE 2). With devices communicating with each other, the increased flexibility and productivity this model produces will make it possible to meet an increasing demand for greater manufacturing mixes and individualized products at much lower costs. For the production of semiconductors in particular, the very nature of the product being manufactured means there may also be opportunity and added benefit for some devices to hold their own information without the need for additional electronics. The information gathered from the decentralized model and analytical software used in Industry 4.0 also makes it easier to account for the cost of each item, resulting in better intelligence for business strategy and product pricing.

FIGURE 2. Adding intelligence to materials and products facilitates the fully decentralized operations model associated with Industry 4.0.

FIGURE 2. Adding intelligence to materials and products facilitates the fully decentralized operations model associated with Industry 4.0.

Although equipment used in the production of semiconductors already have sensors and transmit intelligent information into wider systems, the concept of the CPPS using the IoT adds a new level of simplicity to this idea. The cost of production within the semiconductor industry also means that even marginal variable improvements through the increased use of big data analytics will have huge financial benefits. The Internet of Things (IoT) will further enhance flexibility in measurement and actuation possibilities and free manufacturers from the time and cost associated with changes to sophisticated interfaces on production equipment.

The smart marketplace

With components interacting with machines and having the information they need within them about the processing steps they require, this creates a smart marketplace where the CPS requests services (demand) and the CPPS provides them (supply). Using mobile communications and cloud computing, this can of course be further expanded into the wider supply chain.

The concept of Manufacturing as a Service (MaaS) is, to some extent, already present in the semiconductor industry. The full supply chain has many different steps and, because of the high value of the product, transportation costs become pretty much irrelevant. This means that processing steps can be geographically distributed and the smart marketplace bidding for the work can extend throughout the world. Different factories may compete with each other for procuring specific processing steps and still be competitive regardless of location. Industry 4.0 gives the industry all the tools it needs for a smart, highly efficient marketplace that can add significant production flexibility while reducing both costs and production times.

Benefits of virtual and augmented reality

There are already few manual steps in the semiconductor production process with wafer production in particular using highly automated processes. This means there are few operators to oversee significant amounts of operations and equipment. Industry 4.0 opens up new areas in virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) that will help keep operations running smoothly.

The visualization and control of the wide spread autonomous elements within the CPS and CPPS in a decentralized production model requires a move away from standard, fixed, desk-top like workstations. Mobile devices are now more than capable of handling the demanding tasks of an operator workstation and offer the potential to decrease operational costs and increase productivity (FIGURES 3a and b).

Industry 3

FIGURE 3. Mobile devices are now more than capable of handling the demanding tasks of an operator workstation and offer the potential to decrease operational costs and increase productivity.

FIGURE 3. Mobile devices are now more than capable of handling the demanding tasks of an operator workstation and offer the potential to decrease operational costs and increase productivity.

Using more comprehensive digital data and mobile computing technology, operators would be able to simply point a tablet at a piece of equipment and get real time information about what is happening. Locations of personnel could also be monitored to make most efficient use of human resources available. For the semiconductor industry; the use of secure, mobile devices further reduces the need to take up space in valuable clean-room environments.

Using mobile interfaces, maintenance technicians will also be able to conveniently move between machines without the need to logon at different workstations.

They can interact with different pieces of equipment and gather information about processes while carrying out tasks such as ordering spare parts all from a single mobile device. For specific operations relating to a piece of equipment, apps that automatically launch onto the technician’s tablet depending upon their location may further be used to add important additional infor- mation about a piece of equipment. For example, a particular part may be highlighted to be checked or replaced or additional information about specific machine readings highlighted on the display.

With all the amount of data sent by sensors, products and equipment it will also be possible to visualize in real-time the complete status of a production floor using VR 3D maps. Combining information about where personnel are within the factory and which direction they are facing, this further enables the implementation of some compelling AR scenarios. Indeed, the capability of mobile devices and the increase in real-time data available will likely make the wider use of both VR and AR a fundamental part of shop floor operations.

The Route to Industry 4.0 – the next generation of MES

There are a number of challenges that Industry 4.0 brings with it and its implementation will certainly not happen overnight. The huge benefits the model has to offer, however, can be planned into business strategies and realized over time. One of the first areas to consider is vertical integration of the model. This is important because corporate processes must not be avoided with the autonomy of materials and machines. Business processes for compliance, logistics, engineering, sales or operations all have components inside the plant as well as others that reside beyond the factory that are crucial to a business process being executed effectively. Without these, it’s almost impossible to properly manage a production floor of a certain complexity.

Modern Manufacturing Execution Systems (MES) based on decentralized logic offer a platform for the development of the Industry 4.0 model and a natural route to its vertical integration. MES have always been most effective when integrated into Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems ‘above’ while monitoring and controlling production processes ‘below’.

With the CPS and CPPS communicating directly with each other, the MES can trigger business rules or workflows for the complete production process. For example, quality processes may demand that a device may need additional verification steps before processing continues as part of a higher level quality sampling strategy. This requires communication to intersect the business rules so the quality procedures are not bypassed before the device continues through its production processes.

Another area that is reliant on good vertical integration of systems within Industry 4.0 is Statistical Process Control (SPC). SPC requires data to be collected over time from numerous materials passing through the factory. For example, if a device within the CPS knows it needs to collect a measurable variable, this needs to be confirmed against SPC rules that it is within limits. If it is not, corrective action may be required. Flags for such actions need to be triggered in systems above the CPS and, again, the MES is an ideal platform for this.

By its very nature, the concept of a smart shop floor will generate huge volumes of data. An Industry 4.0 MES will need to aggregate this data and put it into a shop floor context. Indeed, to handle the decentralized logic and vertical integration of the autonomous entities on the shop floor, MES manufacturers need to fully expand their systems’ capabilities to ensure all plant activities are visible, coordinate, managed and accurately measured.

Future MES can also help to realize the full MaaS. This requires horizontal integration so all functions and services can be consumed by all entities on the shop floor including the CPS smart materials and CPPS smart machines. For individual equipment or processes to be procured in single steps, the MES needs to offer exceptional flexibility to expose all available services, capacity and future production plans. With visibility of the complete supply chain, MES also need to consider security and IP related challenges with multi-dimensional security. This needs to be at a service level but also at individual process, step and equipment levels and at any combination of these.

Ultimately it is envisioned that the Cloud will deliver the storage and the ‘anytime, anywhere’ ability to handle the volume of data created from sensors, processing and connectivity capability distributed throughout the plant. The manufacturing intelligence needed and provided by MES today therefore also has to expand to better accommodate the diversity and volume of big data. Fast response to any manufacturing issues will come from real-time analysis where advanced techniques such as “in-memory” and complex event processing may be used to drive operational efficiency even further, where the value of the process makes this a viable return on investment.

Support for advanced analytics in MES is needed to analyse historical data fully understand the performance of the manufacturing processes, quality of products and supply chain optimization. Analytics will also help by identifying inefficiencies based on historical data and pointing staff to corrective or preventive actions for those areas.

Legacy MES

Semiconductor was probably one of the first industries to embrace the idea of MES. First adopters were as early as the 1970s before the term ‘MES’ was even established. Some of these systems still exist today. The problem is that, as the limits of these early systems were reached; small applications have been added around them to meet modern manufacturing demands. These systems are so embedded into production processes that changing them is like replacing the heart of the factory and is no small consideration. There will, however, be some point where these systems can no longer be patched up to meet needs and factories will need to change to survive. The huge potential benefits Industry 4.0 offers may well be the catalyst to change and the basis of sound strategic planning for the future of a business.

Summary

One of the main areas of benefit of the Industry 4.0 decentralized model is the ability to individualize products efficiently with high quality results. This benefits all industries as trends show an increased demand for high mix, smaller batches to meet varying consumer demands. More than for many other industries, the high cost of individualized semiconductors makes the value of adding autonomy to customized processes even higher.

MES have been at the heart of the semiconductor industry for many decades but future-ready MES, based on models with de-centralized logic, offer a pathway to realizing the benefits Industry 4.0 has to offer. For semiconductors these benefits centre on reduced production costs, particularly for small production batches; enhanced efficiency of small workforces, and the business and cost reductions to be gained from the MaaS model and smart supply chain.

Although the semiconductor industry has been somewhat protected, competition is still fierce, especially in areas of mass production. In all different manufacturing areas, however, batch sizes will become smaller and the demand for individualized products will increase. Semiconductor manufacturers that can adapt more quickly to this trend will gain competitive edge and ultimately will be the businesses that survive and grow for the future. Without the Industry 4.0 model manufacturers will of course be able to produce in the future context of more customization, but costs will be much higher than for those who embrace this industrial revolution. If the full scope of Industry 4.0 is realized throughout the supply chain with MaaS, it will be even harder for companies that are outside of this model to compete in the smart marketplace.

With the dawn of Industry 4.0, manufacturing is moving into a new era that brings huge benefits and it is unlikely that the semiconductor industry will let itself be left behind!

IC Insights will release its 20th anniversary edition of The McClean Report in January of next year.  The following represents a portion of the memory forecast that will appear in the new report.

After increasing by more than 20% in both 2013 and 2014, the memory market fell upon difficult times in 2015. Conditions that would normally be seen as favorable for boosting demand and increasing prices for memory devices such as supplier consolidation, limited capacity expansion, and a growing list of emerging applications did not prop up the market at all in 2015.   Instead, slow system demand in personal computers led to excess inventory and steep price cuts in the second half of 2015. This resulted in a 3% decline to $78.0 billion for the 2015 memory market. These same weak market conditions carried into the first half of 2016, but then memory prices began to firm in the second half of the year and the market finished the year on a strong note, though still down 1% year over year.

Looking to 2017, IC Insights’ forecast the total memory IC market will increase 10% to a new record high of $85.3 billion as gains in average selling prices for DRAM and NAND flash help boost total memory sales. Increases in the memory market are forecast to continue each year through the forecast, with sales topping $100.0 billion for the first time in 2020 and then reaching nearly $110.0 billion in 2021 (Figure 1).

From 2016-2021, the average annual growth rate for the memory market is forecast to be 7.3%; about 2.4 points more than the total IC market CAGR during this same time.  Memory units are expected to grow by a CAGR of 5.6%. Playing a bigger role in memory market growth through 2021 will be strengthening average selling prices (ASPs).  Memory market ASPs fell 3% in 2015 and declined another 10% in 2016 but are expected to increase in all but one year (2020) through the forecast at an average annual rate of 1.8%.

Figure 1

Figure 1

The DRAM market, which was the catalyst for strong total memory market growth in 2013 and 2014, tumbled 3% in 2015 and another 10% in 2016, dragging the total memory market down with it in both years (Figure 1).  For 2017, IC Insights forecasts a strong increase in DRAM average selling prices, which is expected to lift the DRAM market to 11% growth.   The NAND flash memory market—the only memory segment to show an increase in 2016—is expected to grow 10% in 2017.  Together, DRAM and NAND flash are forecast to help propel the total memory IC market up 10% in 2017.

By Christian G. Dieseldorff, Industry Research & Statistics Group at SEMI 

Data from SEMI’s recently updated World Fab Forecast report reveal that 62 new Front End facilities will begin operation between 2017 and 2020.  This includes facilities and lines ranging from R&D to high volume fabs, which begin operation before high volume ramp commences.  Most of these newly operating facilities will be volume fabs; only 7 are R&Ds or Pilot facilities.

Between 2017 and 2020, China will see 26 facilities and lines beginning operation, about 42 percent of the worldwide total currently tracked by SEMI.  The majority of the facilities starting operation in 2018 are Chinese-owned companies. The peak for China in 2018 comes mainly from foundry facilities (54 percent). The Americas region follows with 10 facilities, and Taiwan with 9 facilities. See Figure 1.

Figure 1 depicts the regions in which new facilities will begin operation.

Figure 1 depicts the regions in which new facilities will begin operation.

By product type, the forecast for new facilities and lines include: 20 (32 percent) are forecast to be foundries, followed by 13 Memory (21 percent), seven LED (11 percent), six Power (10 percent) and five MEMS (8 percent). See Figure 2

Figure 2: New facilities & lines starting operation by product type from 2017 to 2020

Figure 2: New facilities & lines starting operation by product type from 2017 to 2020

Because the forecast extends several years, it includes facilities and lines of all probabilities, including rumored projects and projects which have been announced, but have a low probability of actually happening.  See Table 1.

FabForecast-table1

 

Probabilities of less than 50 percent are considered unconfirmed, while a probability of 80 to 85 percent means that the facility is currently in construction mode.  Projects with 90 percent probability are currently equipping. As the forecast gets farther out, more of the projects have lower probabilities.

The projects under construction, or soon to be under construction, will be key drivers in equipment spending for this industry over the next several years — with China expected to be the key spending market.

SEMI’s World Fab Forecast provides detailed information about each of these fab projects, such as milestone dates, spending, technology node, products, and capacity information. Since the last publication in August 2016, the research team has made 249 changes on 222 facilities/lines.

The World Fab Forecast Report, in Excel format, tracks spending and capacities for over 1,100 facilities including future facilities across industry segments from Analog, Power, Logic, MPU, Memory, and Foundry to MEMS and LEDs facilities.  Using a bottoms-up approach methodology, the SEMI Fab Forecast provides high-level summaries and graphs, and in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab.

The SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses.  The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment. Also check out the Opto/LED Fab Forecast.

Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats.

IC Insights has just released its new Global Wafer Capacity 2017-2021—Detailed Analysis and Forecast of the IC Industry’s Wafer Fab Capacity report.  Shown below is a brief excerpt from that report.

Prior to 2008, the 200mm wafer was used in more cases for manufacturing ICs than any other wafer size.  However, since 2008, the majority of IC fabrication has taken place on 300mm wafers.  Rankings of IC manufacturers by installed capacity for each of the wafer sizes are shown in Figure 1.  The chart also compares in a relative manner the amounts of capacity held by the top 10 leaders.

installed capacity

Figure 1

Looking at the ranking for 300mm wafers, it is not surprising that the list includes only DRAM and NAND flash memory suppliers like Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix, and Toshiba/Western Digital; the world’s five largest pure-play foundries TSMC, GlobalFoundries, UMC, Powerchip, and SMIC; and Intel, the industry’s biggest IC manufacturer (in terms of revenue). These companies offer the types of ICs that benefit most from using the largest wafer size available to best amortize the manufacturing cost per die, and have the means to continue investing large sums of money in new and improved 300mm fab capacity.

The leaders in the 200mm size category consist of pure-play foundries and manufacturers of analog/mixed-signal ICs and microcontrollers.

The ranking for the smaller wafer sizes (i.e., ≤150mm) includes a more diversified group of companies. STMicroelectronics has a huge amount of 150mm wafer capacity at its fab site in Singapore, but the company has been busy converting this production to 200mm wafers. Another STMicroelectronics 150mm fab in Catania, Italy, is also undergoing a conversion to 200mm wafers, with plans for that project to be completed in 2017.

A significant trend regarding the industry’s IC manufacturing base, and a challenging one from the perspective of companies that supply equipment and materials to chip makers, is that as the industry moves IC fabrication onto larger wafers in bigger fabs, the group of IC manufacturers continues to shrink in number (Figure 2).

Today, there are less than half the number of companies that own and operate 300mm wafer fabs than 200mm fabs. Moreover, the distribution of worldwide 300mm wafer capacity among those manufacturers is becoming increasingly top-heavy.

installed capacity 2

Figure 2

 

Today, SEMI updated the World Fab Forecast report revealing that 62 new Front End facilities are expected to begin operation between 2017 and 2020. The report has been the industry’s trusted data source for 24 years ─ observing and analyzing spending, capacity, and technology changes for all front-end facilities worldwide.

The 62 facilities and lines range from R&D to high-volume fabs.  Most of the newly operating facilities will be volume fabs; only seven are R&Ds or Pilot facilities.

Between 2017 and 2020, 26 facilities and lines begin operation in China, about 42 percent of the worldwide total currently tracked by SEMI.  The Americas region follows with 10 facilities, and Taiwan with 9 facilities.

Fab-Dec-2016

By product type, 32 percent are foundries, 21 percent are Memory, 11 percent LED, then Power, MEMS, Logic, Analog, and Opto, in decreasing order.

Between 2017 and 2020, the World Fab Forecast indicates that five facilities are unconfirmed, 10 are planned, 11 are announced, 26 are in construction and 10 are equipping. These numbers include facilities and lines of all probabilities, including unconfirmed projects and projects which have been announced, but may have a low probability of completion.

The projects under construction, or soon to be under construction, will be key drivers in equipment spending for this industry over the next several years — with China expected to be the key spending market.

SEMI’s World Fab Forecast provides detailed information about each of these fab projects, such as milestone dates, spending, technology node, products, and capacity information. Since the last publication in August 2016, the research team has made 249 changes on 222 facilities/lines. The report, in Excel format, tracks spending and capacities for over 1,100 facilities, using a bottoms-up approach methodology, and provides high-level summaries and graphs, with in-depth analyses of capital expenditures, capacities, technology and products by fab. The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment, while the SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses; also check out the Opto/LED Fab Forecast. Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/en/MarketInfo/FabDatabase and www.youtube.com/user/SEMImktstats.

SEMI, the global industry association representing more than 2,000 companies in the electronics manufacturing supply chain, today reported that worldwide sales of new semiconductor manufacturing equipment are projected to increase 8.7 percent to $39.7 billion in 2016, according to the SEMI Year-end Forecast, released today at the annual SEMICON Japan exposition.  In 2017, another 9.3 percent growth is expected, resulting in a global semiconductor equipment market totaling $43.4 billion.

The SEMI Year-end Forecast predicts that wafer processing equipment, the largest product segment by dollar value, is anticipated to increase 8.2 percent in 2016 to total $31.2 billion. The assembly and packaging equipment segment is projected to grow by 14.6 percent to $2.9 billion in 2016 while semiconductor test equipment is forecast to increase by 16.0 percent, to a total of $3.9 billion this year.

For 2016, Taiwan and South Korea are projected to remain the largest spending regions, with China joining the top three for the first time. Rest of World (essentially Southeast Asia), will lead in growth with 87.7 percent, followed by China at 36.6 percent and Taiwan at 16.8 percent.

SEMI forecasts that in 2017, equipment sales in Europe will climb the most, 51.7 percent, to a total of $2.8 billion, following a 10.0 percent contraction in 2016. In 2017, Taiwan, Korea and China are forecast to remain the top three markets, with Taiwan maintaining the top spot even with a 9.2 percent decline to total $10.2 billion. Equipment sales to Korea are forecast at $9.7 billion, while equipment sales to China are expected to reach $7.0 billion.

The following results are given in terms of market size in billions of U.S. dollars:

2016-year-end

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $30.5 billion for the month of October 2016, an increase of 3.4 percent from last month’s total of $29.5 billion and 5.1 percent higher than the October 2015 total of $29.0 billion. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average. Additionally, a new WSTS industry forecast projects roughly flat annual semiconductor sales in 2016, followed by slight market growth in 2017 and 2018.

“The global semiconductor market has rebounded in recent months, with October marking the largest year-to-year sales increase since March 2015,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Sales increased compared to last month across all regional markets and nearly every major semiconductor product category. Meanwhile, the latest industry forecast has been revised upward and now calls for flat annual sales in 2016 and small increases in 2017 and 2018. All told, the industry is well-positioned for a strong close to 2016.

Regionally, year-to-year sales increased in China (14.0 percent), Japan (7.2 percent), Asia Pacific/All Other (1.9 percent), and the Americas (0.1 percent), but decreased in Europe (-3.0 percent). Compared with last month, sales were up across all regional markets: the Americas (6.5 percent), China (3.2 percent), Japan (3.0 percent), Europe (2.2 percent), and Asia Pacific/All Other (2.0 percent).

Additionally, SIA today endorsed the WSTS Autumn 2016 global semiconductor sales forecast, which projects the industry’s worldwide sales will be $335.0 billion in 2016, a 0.1 percent decrease from the 2015 sales total. WSTS projects a year-to-year increase in Japan (3.2 percent) and Asia Pacific (2.5 percent), with decreases expected in Europe (-4.9 percent) and the Americas (-6.5 percent). Among major semiconductor product categories, WSTS forecasts growth in 2016 for sensors (22.6 percent), discretes (4.2 percent), analog (4.8 percent) and MOS micro ICs (2.3 percent), which include microprocessors and microcontrollers.

Beyond 2016, the semiconductor market is expected to grow at a modest pace across all regions. WSTS forecasts 3.3 percent growth globally for 2017 ($346.1 billion in total sales) and 2.3 percent growth for 2018 ($354.0 billion). WSTS tabulates its semi-annual industry forecast by convening an extensive group of global semiconductor companies that provide accurate and timely indicators of semiconductor trends.

Vigorous M&A activity in 2015 and 2016 has reshaped the landscape of the semiconductor industry, with the top companies now controlling a much greater percentage of marketshare.  Not including foundries, IC Insights forecasts to top five semiconductor suppliers—Intel, Samsung, Qualcomm, Broadcom, and SK Hynix— will account for 41% marketshare in 2016 (Figure 1).  This represents a nine-point increase from the 32% marketshare held by the top five suppliers ten years ago. Furthermore, the top 10 semiconductor suppliers are forecast to account for 56% marketshare in 2016, an 11-point swing from 45% in 2006, and the top 25 companies are forecast to account for more than three-quarters of all semiconductor sales this year.

semiconductor sales leaders

Figure 1

Following an historic surge in semiconductor merger and acquisition agreements in 2015, the torrid pace of transactions eased a bit in the first half of 2016.  However, 2016 is now forecast to be the second-largest year ever for chip industry M&A announcements, thanks to three major deals struck in 3Q16 that have a combined total value of $51.0 billion.  These deals were SoftBank’s purchase of ARM, Analog Devices’ intended purchase of Linear Technology, and Renesas’ potential acquisition of Intersil. With the surge in mergers and acquisitions expected to continue over the next few years, IC Insights believes that the consolidation will raise the shares of the top suppliers to even loftier levels.

A simple solution-based electrical doping technique could help reduce the cost of polymer solar cells and organic electronic devices, potentially expanding the applications for these technologies. By enabling production of efficient single-layer solar cells, the new process could help move organic photovoltaics into a new generation of wearable devices and enable small-scale distributed power generation.

polymer-solar_2021

Developed by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology and colleagues from three other institutions, the technique provides a new way of inducing p-type electrical doping in organic semiconductor films. The process involves briefly immersing the films in a solution at room temperature, and would replace a more complex technique that requires vacuum processing.

“Our hope is that this will be a game-changer for organic photovoltaics by further simplifying the process for fabricating polymer-based solar cells,” said Bernard Kippelen, director of Georgia Tech’s Center for Organic Photonics and Electronics and a professor in the School of Electrical and Computer Engineering. “We believe this technique is likely to impact many other device platforms in areas such as organic printed electronics, sensors, photodetectors and light-emitting diodes.”

Sponsored by the Office of Naval Research, the work was reported December 5 in the journal Nature Materials. The research also involved scientists from the University of California at Santa Barbara, Kyushu University in Japan, and the Eindhoven University of Technology in The Netherlands.

The technique consists of immersing thin films of organic semiconductors and their blends in polyoxometalate (PMA and PTA) solutions in nitromethane for a brief time – on the order of minutes. The diffusion of the dopant molecules into the films during immersion leads to efficient p-type electrical doping over a limited depth of 10 to 20 nanometers from the surface of the film. The p-doped regions show increased electrical conductivity and high work function, reduced solubility in the processing solvent, and improved photo-oxidation stability in air.

This new method provides a simpler alternative to air-sensitive molybdenum oxide layers used in the most efficient polymer solar cells that are generally processed using expensive vacuum equipment. When applied to polymer solar cells, the new doping method provided efficient hole collection. For the first time, single-layer polymer solar cells were demonstrated by combining this new method with spontaneous vertical phase separation of amine-containing polymers that leads to efficient electron collection at the opposing electrode. The geometry of these new devices is unique as the functions of hole and electron collection are built into the light-absorbing active layer, resulting in the simplest single-layer geometry with few interfaces.

“The realization of single-layer photovoltaics with our approach enables both electrodes in the device to be made out of low-cost conductive materials,” said Canek Fuentes-Hernandez, a senior research scientist in Kippelen’s research group. “This offers a dramatic simplification of a device geometry, and it improves the photo-oxidation stability of the donor polymer. Although lifetime and cost analysis studies are needed to assess the full impact of these innovations, they are certainly very exciting developments on the road to transform organic photovoltaics into a commercial technology.”

By simplifying the production of organic solar cells, the new processing technique could allow fabrication of solar cells in areas of Africa and Latin America that lack capital-intensive manufacturing capabilities, said Felipe Larrain, a Ph.D. student in Kippelen’s lab.

“Our goal is to further simplify the fabrication of organic solar cells to the point at which every material required to fabricate them may be included in a single kit that is offered to the public,” Larrain said. “The solar cell product may be different if you are able to provide people with a solution that would allow them to make their own solar cells. It could one day enable people to power themselves and be independent of the grid.”

Organic solar cells have been studied in many academic and industrial laboratories for several decades, and have experienced a continuous and steady improvement in their power conversion efficiency with laboratory values reaching 13 percent – compared to around 20 percent for commercial silicon-based cells. Though polymer-based cells are currently less efficient, they require less energy to produce than silicon cells and can be more easily recycled at the end of their lifetime.

“Being able to process solar cells entirely at room temperature using this simple solution-based technique could pave the way for a scalable and vacuum-free method of device fabrication, while significantly reducing the time and cost associated with it,” said Vladimir Kolesov, a Ph.D. researcher and the paper’s lead author.

Beyond solar cells, the doping technique could be more broadly used in other areas of organic electronics, noted Ph.D. researcher Wen-Fang Chou. “With its simplicity, this is truly a promising technology offering adjustable conductivity of semiconductors that could be applied to various organic electronics, and could have huge impact on the industry for mass production.”

Also at Georgia Tech, the research involved professors Samuel Graham and Seth Marder, both from the Center for Organic Photonics and Electronics. Beyond Georgia Tech, the project also involved Naoya Aizawa from Kyushu University; Ming Wang, Guillermo Bazan and Thuc-Quyen Nguyen from the University of California Santa Barbara, and Alberto Perrotta from Eindhoven University of Technology.

Integrated circuit sales for connections to the Internet of Things are forecast to grow more than three times faster than total IC revenues during the last half of this decade, according to IC Insights’ new 2017 Integrated Circuit Market Drivers report.  ICs used to embed Internet of Things (IoT) functionality into a wide range of systems, sensors, and objects are expected to generate sales of $12.8 billion in 2016, says the new report, which becomes available this week.

Between 2015 and 2020, IoT integrated circuit sales are projected to rise by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.3% compared to 4.3% for the entire IC market, which is projected to reach $354.7 billion in four years versus $287.1 billion last year, based on the forecast in the 492-page report.  As shown in Figure 1, strong five-year IC sales growth rates are also expected in automotive (a CAGR of 10.3%), medical electronics (a CAGR of 7.3%), digital TVs (a CAGR of 5.9%), and server computers (a CAGR of 5.4%).

Cellphone IC sales—the biggest end-use market application for integrated circuits—are expected to grow by a CAGR of 4.8% in the 2015-2020 period.  Saturation in smartphone markets and economic weakness in some developing regions are expected to curb cellphone IC market growth in the next four years after sales increased by a CAGR of 10.8% between 2010 and 2015.  Meanwhile, weak and negative IC sales growth rates are expected to continue in standard personal computers, set-top boxes, touchscreen tablets, and video game consoles.

The new 2017 IC Market Drivers report shows 2016 integrated circuit sales for IoT applications climbing nearly 19% compared to 2015 to an estimated $12.8 billion, followed by the automotive segment increasing about 12% to $22.9 billion, medical electronics rising 9% to $4.9 billion, and digital TV systems growing 4% to $12.9 billion this year.  The report estimates IC sales growth in server computers being about 3% in 2016 to $15.1 billion, cellphones being 2% to $74.2 billion, and set-top boxes being 2% to $5.7 billion.  Meanwhile, standard PC integrated circuit sales are estimated to be down 5% in 2016 to $54.6 billion while video game console IC revenues are expected to finish this year with a 4% drop to $8.9 billion and tablet IC sales are on track to decline 10% to $12.1 billion in 2016, according to IC Insights’ new report.

Figure 1

Figure 1