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Poised for more growth


March 17, 2015

By Christian G. Dieseldorff, Industry Research & Statistics Group, SEMI

The most recent edition of the SEMI World Fab Forecast report — which tracks fab spending for construction and equipment, as well as capacity changes, and technology nodes transitions and product type changes by fab — reveals a positive forecast. The report shows that fab equipment spending in 2014 increased 20 percent, is expected to rise 15 percent in 2015, with another increase of 2-4 percent in 2016. Spending on construction projects, which typically represents new cleanroom projects, will see a significant decline in 2015 with -32 percent, but is expected to increase by 32 percent in 2016.  Since its last publication in November 2014, about 270 updates were made including data on 17 new facilities.

Fab Equipment/Fab Construction (2013-2016)

 

2013

2014

2015

2016

Fab equipment* 

$29.4

$35.2

$40.5

$41 to $42

Change % Fab equipment

-10.0%

19.8%

15.0%

2% to 4%

Fab construction US$

$8.8

$7.7

$5.2

$6.9

Change % construction

13.6%

-11.0%

-32.0%

+32.0%

Chart US$, in billions; Source: SEMI, March 2015SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment and spending on facilities for installation.

The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment and spending on facilities for installation.

Fab spending, such as construction spending and equipment spending, are fractions of a company’s total capital expenditure (capex). Typically, if capex shows a trend to increase, fab spending will follow.  Capex for most of the large semiconductor companies is expected to increase by eight percent in 2015, and grow another three percent in 2016. These increases are driven by new fab construction projects and also ramp of new technology nodes. Spending on construction projects, which typically represents new cleanroom projects, will experience a significant -32 percent decline in 2015, but is expected to rebound by 32 percent in 2016.

With worldwide capex growth of 8 percent, fab equipment spending is expected to increase by 15 percent in 2015.  At this point, SEMI’s data predict a slowdown of fab equipment spending in 2016 to low single digits.  No negative change is currently expected in our forecast scenario. Looking back to the last 25 years, after two years of growth a negative year typically followed. This may not be the case this time. Developments in the industry are pointing to a small but positive 2016.

Most fab equipment spending in 2015 is for foundry, memory, and Logic+MPU. Discretes including LED remain at about 4 percent share, MEMS/Other about 2-3 percent and Analog at less than1 percent.  Distribution will not change for 2016, except for foundry spending, which continues to increase year-over-year.

Comparing regions across the world, according to SEMI, the highest fab equipment spending in 2015 will occur in Taiwan, with US$ 11.9 billion, followed by Korea with US$ 9 billion.  The region with third largest spending, the Americas, is forecast to spend about US$ 7 billion.  Yet growth will decline in the Americas, by 12 percent in 2015, and decline by 12 percent in 2016 again.  Fourth in spending is China, with US$ 4.7 billion in 2015 and US$ 4.2 billion in 2016. In other regions, Japan’s spending will grow by about 6 percent in 2015, to US$ 4 billion; and 2 percent in 2016, to US$ 4.2 billion.  The Europe/Mideast region will see growth of about 20 percent (US$ 2.7 billion) in 2015 and over 30 percent (US$ 3.5 billion) in 2016. South East Asia is expected to grow by about 15 percent (US$ 1.3 billion) in 2015 and 70 percent (US$ 2.2 billion) in 2016.

New facilities beginning construction in 2015 and 2016 will start equipping in 2016 or later. SEMI’s data show that seven new facilities will start construction in 2015 (including one LED and one shell). In 2016, construction will possibly begin on five or six new fabs.

2015 is expected to be the second consecutive year in equipment spending growth. Our positive outlook for the year is based on spending trends we are tracking as part of our fab investment research. As noted in some of the examples cited above, the “bottom’s up” company-by-company and fab-by-fab approach points to strong investments by foundries and memory companies driving this year’s growth. Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at: www.semi.org/MarketInfo/FabDatabase.

The industrial semiconductor market will post a 9.7 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next several years as revenue rises from $34.8 billion in 2013 to $55.2 billion in 2018, according to IHS, a global source of critical information and insight. Increased capital spending by companies and continued economic growth, especially in the United States and China, and will help spur demand and drive sales growth for industrial semiconductors.

Based on the latest information from the Q4 2014 Industrial Semi Market Report from IHS Semiconductors and Components Service, factory automation, building and home control and commercial aircraft are driving demand for industrial semiconductors. In fact, industrial semiconductor sales posted 4.7 percent growth in the third quarter (Q3) of 2014 alone compared to the previous quarter. By the end of 2014 the market grew an estimated 16.8 percent over the previous year. Demand was especially strong for optical LEDs, which grew 23.4 percent, rising from $6.3 billion to $7.7 billion. Discrete power transistors and thyristors posted 13.4 percent growth, rising from $5.5 billion in 2013 to $6.3 billion in 2014.

ihs industrial semi report

 

Industrial OEM factory revenues were expected to grow 8.3 percent in 2014 on increased sales in the building and home-control market. High-growth categories include LED lighting and IP cameras and other digital video surveillance products.

“Because of strong growth in the industrial segment, semiconductor companies are paying more attention to this market as more chips are being used in applications that did not previously use semiconductors,” said Robbie Galoso, principal analyst for IHS. “Growth in the industrial segment has also been buoyed by a gradual acceleration in the global economy, which continues to boost industrial equipment demand, especially from the United States and China.”

The global economy was strong in 2014 and, led by the United States, it is expected to flourish through 2018. U.S. economic growth is broad-based than in other regions, with a more stabilized housing market, improved consumer finances and credit, and increased capital spending. U.S real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to reach 2.4 percent in 2014, 3.1 percent in 2015 and 2.7 percent in 2016.

The United States accounted for 30.5 percent of all semiconductors used in industrial applications in 2013. China is the second largest industrial chip buyer, purchasing about 14 percent of all industrial semiconductors. Its economy will grow 7.3 percent in 2014, 6.5 percent in 2015 and 6.7 percent in 2016.

“Stronger economic growth and increased capital spending in the United States and China is good news for industrial semiconductor manufacturers because they are the leading purchasers of industrial semiconductors,” Galoso said. “A solid economy and robust industrial equipment demand will further boost sales of optical semiconductors, analog chips and discretes, which are the three largest industrial semiconductor product segments.”

LED demand shines

Revenue from optical chips for industrial applications will grow from $8.6 billion in 2013 to $15.9 billion in 2018. The optical chip segment includes LEDs for general lighting, which represented 72 percent of the optical category in 2013, and will reach 78.4 percent in 2018. Optocouplers used in motor drives in factory automation and energy distribution, conversion and storage, is the second biggest product category within optical integrated circuits (ICs).

Analog semiconductor revenue will increase from $6.7 billion 2013 to $9.9 billion in 2018, while discretes increase from $6.4 billion to $8.6 billion. The analog semiconductor segment includes voltage regulators and reference, data converters, amplifiers and comparators, and interface ICs, which are used in factory automation, motor drives, and energy conversion and storage.

Image sensors are the smallest category in the optical chip segment. These sensors are currently transitioning from charge-coupled-device (CCD) image sensors to complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) image sensors that are widely used in security cameras, medical imaging equipment and military devices.

Industrial semiconductors with the strongest compound annual growth rates from 2013 through 2018 will include logic semiconductors at 13.4 percent, optical semiconductors at 13 percent and sensors and actuators at 10.8 percent.

Logic ICs are widely used in automation, including programmable logic controllers, digital control systems and communication and networking that extend across various markets, machine vision, and military applications.

Growth drivers

“The robust growth in demand for industrial semiconductors over the next three years will be driven by a wide range of products and segments,” Galoso said. “These products include 3D printers, factory automation products, commercial aircraft, LED lighting, digital IP cameras, climate control devices, renewable energy products, medical electronics and wireless application-specific testers.

Industrial 3D printers is a high growth category that will help drive industrial semiconductor usage in the coming years. It includes equipment used to manufacture objects through an additive process of laying down successive layers of material, until the entire object is created.

Avionics will continue to lead growth in the industrial segment. The commercial aircraft market offset the military aircraft market in the third quarter 2014. Total avionics revenue was expected to finish 2014 with 16.9 percent growth.

Led by China and the United States, the factory automation segment has grown over the past five quarters. The segment is forecast to reach 5.9 percent growth in 2014.

Cypress Semiconductor Corp. and Spansion, Inc. yesterday announced that they have closed the merger of the two companies in an all-stock, tax-free transaction valued at approximately $5 billion. In a special meeting earlier today, Cypress shareholders approved the issuance of 2.457 shares of Cypress stock to Spansion shareholders for each Spansion share they own. Spansion shareholders approved the merger in a separate special meeting. The merger is expected to achieve more than $135 million in cost synergies on an annualized basis within three years and to be accretive to non-GAAP earnings within the first full year after the transaction closes. The combined company will continue to pay $0.11 per share in quarterly dividends to shareholders.

Cypress President and CEO T.J. Rodgers is scheduled to talk about the merger live on the Fox Business News program, “Opening Bell,” hosted by Maria Bartiromo, Friday morning at 7:30 a.m. PDT. A four-minute video of Rodgers and Spansion CEOJohn Kispert, describing the synergies of the merger and benefits for Cypress and Spansion customers, is available on the Cypress website atwww.cypress.com/NewCypress.

“We closed this merger even more quickly than originally anticipated, accelerating our strategic and financial roadmap,” Rodgers said. “From Day One, the new Cypress will capitalize on its expanded product portfolio and leadership positions in embedded processing and specialized memories to significantly extend its penetration of global markets such as automotive, industrial, consumer, wearable electronics and the Internet of Things.”

“Consider the automotive market, where Cypress has a dominant position in capacitive touch-sensing controllers and SRAMs for infotainment systems, and Spansion is the leading supplier of flash memory and microcontrollers for infotainment, body and climate control systems, instrument clusters and advanced driver assistance systems,” Rodgers said. “The new Cypress will be the No. 3 chip supplier worldwide of memories and microcontrollers to this business. You can think of the post-merger company truly in terms of the well-known equation: 1 + 1 = 3: No. 1 in SRAMs, No. 1 in NOR flash and No. 3 overall.”

“Spansion’s exceptional team and technology leadership in high-performance memory and MCUs will complement Cypress’s strong capabilities. This merger was an important step forward in Spansion’s transformation into a global embedded systems leader,” said Kispert, CEO of Spansion and a member of the Cypress board of directors. “Together, we can significantly enhance our value to our customers and deliver a more robust and broader product line to meet their embedded requirements.”

IC Insights’ March Update to the 2015 McClean Report (being released later this month) refreshes the forecasts for 33 major IC product categories through 2019.  The complete list of all 33 major IC product categories ranked by the updated forecast growth rates for 2015 is shown in Figure 1.  Eleven product categories (led by Automotive Special Purpose Logic, DRAM, and Automotive Application-Specific Analog devices) are expected to exceed the 7 percent growth rate forecast for the total IC market this year.  Five of the eleven categories are forecast to see double-digit growth in 2015.  The total number of IC categories forecast to register sales growth in 2015 drops slightly to 27 products from 28 in 2014.

IC Insights forecasts a solid growth year for automotive-specific ICs.  In addition to Automotive Special Purpose Logic and Automotive Application-Specific Analog, “intelligent” cars are contributing to growth in the 32-bit MCU market. Driver information systems, throttle control, and semi-autonomous driving features such as self-parking, advanced cruise control, and collision-avoidance are some of the systems that rely on 32-bit MCUs.  In the next few years, complex 32-bit MCUs are expected to account for over 25 percent of the processing power in vehicles.

Automotive is forecast to be among the strongest electronic systems market in 2015.  The automotive segment is expected to register a compound annual growth rate of 6.5 percent in the 2014-2019 timeperiod compared to projected CAGRs of 6.8 percent for communications, 4.3 percent for consumer, 4.2 percent for computer, 4.5 percent for industrial, and 2.7 percent for government/military.  Despite automotive being one of the fastest growing electronic system markets over the next five years, automotive’s share of the total IC market is forecast to be only 8 percent in 2015 and remain less than 10 percent through 2019.

Big gains in the DRAM average selling price (ASP) the past two years resulted in greater-than-30 percent growth for the DRAM market in both 2013 and 2014.  DRAM ASP growth is expected to subside this year but demand for mobile DRAM is forecast to help this memory market category grow another 14 percent, placing it second among the 33 IC product categories shown, according to the newly refreshed forecast.

IC Insights 0312 Fig 1

 

Growth of Cellphone Application MPUs (10 percent) is forecast to remain near the top on the growth list for a fifth consecutive year. Meanwhile, the previously high-flying Tablet MPU market is forecast to sputter to just 3 percent growth in 2015 as demand for tablets slows and ASPs decline. Other IC categories that support mobile systems are expected to see better-than-industry-average growth in 2015, including gains of 9 percent for NAND flash and 8 percent for Power Management Analog.

Increased sales of medical/personal health electronic systems and the growth of the Internet of Things will help the markets for Industrial/Other Application-Specific Analog and 32-bit MCU devices outpace total IC market growth in 2015, as well.

SEMI today announced an update of the SEMI World Fab Forecast report which updates outlooks for 2015 and 2016. The SEMI report reveals that fab equipment spending in 2014 increased almost 20 percent and will rise 15 percent in 2015, increasing only 2-4 percent in 2016. Since November 2014, SEMI has made 270 updates on its World Fab Forecast report, which tracks fab spending for construction and equipment, as well as capacity changes, and technology nodes transitions and product type changes by fab.

2013

2014

2015

2016

Fab equipment*

$29.4

$35.2

$40.5

$41 to $42

Change % Fab equipment

-10.0%

19.8%

15.0%

2% to 4%

Fab construction US$

$8.8

$7.7

$5.2

$6.9

Change % construction

13.6%

-11.0%

-32.0%

+32.0%

* Chart US$, in billions; Source: SEMI, March 2015

The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment and spending on facilities for installation.

Fab spending, such as construction spending and equipment spending, are fractions of a company’s total capital expenditure (capex). Typically, if capex shows a trend to increase, fab spending will follow.  Capex for most of the large semiconductor companies is expected to increase by 8 percent in 2015, and grow another 3 percent in 2016. These increases are driven by new fab construction projects and also ramp of new technology nodes. Spending on construction projects, which typically represents new cleanroom projects, will experience a significant -32 percent decline in 2015, but is expected to rebound by 32 percent in 2016.

Comparing regions across the world, according to SEMI, the highest fab equipment spending in 2015 will occur in Taiwan, with US$ 11.9 billion, followed by Korea with US$ 9 billion.  The region with third largest spending, the Americas, is forecast to spend about US$ 7 billion.  Yet growth will decline in the Americas, by 12 percent in 2015, and decline by 12 percent in 2016 again.  Fourth in spending is China, with US$ 4.7 billion in 2015 and US$ 4.2 billion in 2016. In other regions, Japan’s spending will grow by about 6 percent in 2015, to US$ 4 billion; and 2 percent in 2016, to US$ 4.2 billion.  The Europe/Mideast region will see growth of about 20 percent (US$ 2.7 billion) in 2015 and over 30 percent (US$ 3.5 billion) in 2016. South East Asia is expected to grow by about 15 percent (US$ 1.3 billion) in 2015 and 70 percent (US$ 2.2 billion) in 2016.

2015 is expected to be the second consecutive year in equipment spending growth. SEMI’s positive outlook for the year is based on spending trends tracked as part of our fab investment research. The “bottom’s up” company-by-company and fab-by-fab approach points to strong investments by foundries and memory companies driving this year’s growth.

The SEMI World Fab Forecast Report lists over 40 facilities making DRAM products. Many facilities have major spending for equipment and construction planned for 2015.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing and design, today announced that worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $28.5 billion for the month of January 2015, the industry’s highest-ever January total and an increase of 8.7 percent from January 2014 when sales were $26.3 billion. Global sales from January 2015 were 2 percent lower than the December 2014 total of $29.1 billion, reflecting normal seasonal trends. Regionally, sales in the Americas increased by 16.4 percent compared to last January to lead all regional markets. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“After a record-setting 2014, the global semiconductor industry is off to a promising start to 2015, posting its highest-ever January sales led by impressive growth in the Americas market,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Global sales have increased on a year-to-year basis for 21 consecutive months and remain strong across most regions and product categories.”

Regionally, year-to-year sales increased in the Americas (16.4 percent) and Asia Pacific (10.7 percent), but decreased in Europe (-0.2 percent) and Japan (-8 percent). Sales decreased compared to the previous month in Asia Pacific (-0.8 percent), Europe (-2 percent), the Americas (-3.3 percent), and Japan (-6.4 percent).

January 2015
Billions
Month-to-Month Sales
Market Last Month Current Month % Change
Americas 6.73 6.51 -3.3%
Europe 3.01 2.94 -2.0%
Japan 2.80 2.62 -6.4%
Asia Pacific 16.59 16.46 -0.8%
Total 29.13 28.53 -2.0%
Year-to-Year Sales
Market Last Year Current Month % Change
Americas 5.59 6.51 16.4%
Europe 2.95 2.94 -0.2%
Japan 2.84 2.62 -8.0%
Asia Pacific 14.87 16.46 10.7%
Total 26.25 28.53 8.7%
Three-Month-Moving Average Sales
Market Aug/Sep/Oct Nov/Dec/Jan % Change
Americas 6.41 6.51 1.5%
Europe 3.21 2.94 -8.2%
Japan 3.01 2.62 -13.1%
Asia Pacific 17.05 16.46 -3.5%
Total 29.68 28.53 -3.9%

Total semiconductor unit shipments (integrated circuits and opto-sensor-discrete, or O-S-D, devices) are forecast to continue their upward march through the current cyclical period and top one trillion units for the first time in 2017, according to IC Insights’ forecast presented in the 2015 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry. Semiconductor shipments in excess of one trillion units are forecast to be the new normal beginning in 2017.

Figure 1 shows that semiconductor unit shipments are forecast to increase to 1,024.5 billion devices in 2017 from 32.6 billion in 1978, which amounts to average annual growth of 9.2 percent over the 39 year period and demonstrates how increasingly dependent the world is on semiconductors. From 2009 to 2014, the average annual growth rate of semiconductor units was 7.6 percent—somewhat slower than the long-term growth rate—due to global economic uncertainties through that five-year period. Stronger 8.2 percent annual growth is forecast from 2014 to 2019 as momentum strengthens for electronic systems.

semi units

The strongest annual increase in semiconductor unit growth over the time span shown in Figure 1 was 34 percent in 1984; the biggest decline was 19 percent in 2001 following the dot-com bust. Semiconductor unit shipments first topped the 100-billion mark in 1987, exceeded 500-billion units for the first time in 2006 and then surpassed 600-billion units in 2007 before the global financial meltdown and recession caused semiconductor shipments to fall in 2008 and 2009, the only time the industry has experienced a back-to-back decline in unit shipments. Semiconductor unit growth then surged 25 percent in 2010, the second-highest growth rate since 1978. IC Insights forecasts semiconductor unit growth of 10.0 percent in 2015 and 11.0 percent in 2016. The semiconductor unit growth rate is forecast to fall to only 3.4 percent in 2017, enough to push annual shipments beyond one trillion devices for the first time.

Interestingly, the percentage split of IC and O-S-D devices within total semiconductor units has remained fairly steady despite advances in integrated circuit technology and the blending of functions to reduce chip count within systems. In 1978, O-S-D devices accounted for 79 percent of semiconductor units and ICs represented 21 percent. Almost 40 years later in 2017, O-S-D devices are forecast to account for 74 percent of total semiconductor units, compared to 26 percent for ICs (Figure 2).

semi units 2

Further details on IC, O-S-D, and total semiconductor unit and market trends are provided in the 2015 edition of IC Insights’ flagship report, The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry.

More than any other industry, the semiconductor business is defined by rapid technological change.  As a result, a constant and high level of investment in R&D is essential to the competitive positions of semiconductor suppliers.

Figure 1 shows IC Insights’ 2014 ranking of semiconductor companies by R&D spending. Among the top 10 R&D spenders in 2014, five were based in the U.S., three from the Asia-Pacific region, and Japan and Europe each had one company represented.  The list includes five IDMs, four fabless suppliers, and foundry operator TSMC.

Intel topped all chip companies in R&D spending in 2014, accounting for 36% of the top-10 spending and 21 percent of the $56.0 billion in total worldwide semiconductor R&D expenditures.  The industry’s two largest IDMs—Intel and Samsung—continue to emphasize internal production capacity for advanced ICs in leading-edge wafer fabs. Consequently, spending on R&D programs at the two IC giants has kept growing, but at different rates in recent years.  This is partly due to Samsung’s ability to hold down some costs by participating in IBM’s Common Platform joint development alliance, which also includes GlobalFoundries as an R&D partner.

Fabless IC supplier Qualcomm kept pace with Intel to remain the second-largest spender, a position it first achieved in 2012.  Qualcomm showed the largest percentage increase among the top 10 suppliers with a 62 percent boost in its R&D spending in 2014.  Fabless suppliers Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Broadcom had the highest R&D spending as a percent of sales ratios in 2014 at 31.3 percent, 28.5 percent, and 28.2 percent, respectively.  Broadcom’s spending in 2014 declined for the first time since 2003, while Nvidia’s 2014 spending increased just three percent, but both companies have consistently spent in the range of 30 percent of revenue on R&D the past several years.

top RD semi

 

TSMC’s 15 percent R&D spending increase in 2014, along with a decline in spending at Toshiba and ST, moved the company up two slots to number 5 in the ranking. As a result of the growing number of IC manufacturers adopting the fab-lite business model or becoming completely fabless, TSMC joined the group of top-10 R&D spenders for the first time in 2010.  Micron and MediaTek also moved up in the ranking.  MediaTek became a top-10 spender following its acquisition of fellow Taiwanese fabless supplier MStar in early 2014 (the ranking shows the combined results of MediaTek and MStar).

Five other IC companies had R&D spending of at least $1.0 billion in 2014 but did not make the top 10 ranking. These included Texas Instruments, $1.36 billion; SK Hynix, $1.33 billion; Marvell, $1.18 billion; AMD, $1.06 billion; and Avago, $1.00 billion.

Additional details on semiconductor R&D spending and other technology trends within the IC industry are provided within the IC industry are provided in The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (released in January 2015), which features more than 400 tables and graphs in the main report alone.

Pulsed measurements are defined in Part 1, and common pulsed measurement challenges are discussed in Part 2.

By DAVID WYBAN, Keithley Instruments, a Tektronix Company, Solon, Ohio

Performing a DC measurement starts with applying the test signal (typically a DC voltage), then waiting long enough for all the transients in the DUT and the test system to settle out. The measurements themselves are typically performed using a sigma-delta or integrating-type analog-to-digital converter (ADC). The conversion takes place over one or more power line cycles to eliminate noise in the measurements due to ambient power line noise in the test environment. Multiple measurements are often averaged to increase accuracy. It can take 100ms or longer to acquire a single reading using DC measurement techniques.

In contrast, pulsed measurements are fast. The test signal is applied only briefly before the signal is returned to some base level. To fit measurements into these short windows, sigma-delta ADCs are run at sub-power-line interval integration times; sometimes, the even faster successive approximation register (SAR) type ADCs are used. Because of these high speeds, readings from pulsed measurements are noisier than readings returned by DC measurements. However, in on-wafer semiconductor testing, pulse testing techniques are essential to prevent device damage or destruction. Wafers have no heat sinking to pull away heat generated by current flow; if DC currents were used, the heat would increase rapidly until the device was destroyed. Pulse testing allows applying test signals for very short periods, avoiding this heat buildup and damage.

Why use pulsed measurements?

The most common reason for using pulsed measurements is to reduce joule heating (i.e., device self-heating). When a test signal is applied to a DUT, the device consumes power and turns it into heat, increasing the device’s temperature. The longer that power is applied, the hotter the device becomes, which affects its electrical characteristics. If a DUT’s temperature can’t be kept constant, it can’t be characterized accurately. However, with pulsed testing, power is only applied to the DUT briefly, minimizing self-heating. Duty cycles of 1 percent or less are recommended to reduce the average power dissipated by the device over time. Pulsed measurements are designed to minimize the power applied to the device so much that its internal temperature rise is nearly zero, so heating will have little or no effect on the measurements.

Because they minimize joule heating, pulsed measurements are widely used in nanotechnology research, such as when characterizing delicate materials and structures like CNT FETs, semiconductor nanowires, graphene-based devices, molecular- based electronics and MEMs structures. The heat produced with traditional DC measurement techniques could easily alter or destroy them.

To survive high levels of continuous DC power, devices like MOSFETs and IGBTs require packaging with a solid metal backing and even heat-sinking. However, during the early stages of device development, packaging these experimental devices would be much too costly and time consuming, so early testing is performed at the wafer level. Because pulsed testing minimizes the power applied to a device, it allows for complete characterization of these devices on the probe station, reducing the cost of test.

The reduction in joule heating that pulsed testing allows also simplifies the process of characterizing devices at varying temperatures. Semiconductor devices are typically so small that it is impossible
to measure their temperature directly with a probe. With pulsed measurements, however, the self- heating of the device can be made so insignificant that its internal temperature can be assumed to be equal to the surrounding ambient temperature. To characterize the device at a specific temperature, simply change the surrounding ambient temperature with a thermal chamber or temperature-controlled heat sink. Once the device has reached thermal equilibrium at the new ambient temperature, repeat the pulsed measurements to characterize the device at the new temperature.

Pulsed measurements are also useful for extending instruments’ operating boundaries. A growing number of power semiconductor devices are capable of operating at 100A or higher, but building an instrument capable of sourcing this much DC current would be prohibitive. However, when delivering pulse mode power, these high power outputs are only for very short intervals, which can be done by storing the required energy from a smaller power supply within capacitors and delivering it all in one short burst. This allows instruments like the Model 2651A High Power SourceMeter SMU instrument to combine sourcing up to 50A with precision current and voltage measurements.

Pulsed I-V vs. transient measurements

Pulsed measurements come in two forms, pulsed I-V and transient. Pulsed I-V (FIGURE 1) is a technique for gathering DC-like current vs. voltage curves using pulses rather than DC signals. In the pulsed I-V technique, the current and voltage is measured near the end of the flat top of the pulse, before the falling edge. In this technique, the shape of the pulse is extremely important because it determines the quality of the measurement. If the top of the pulse has not settled before this measurement is taken, the resulting reading will be noisy and or incorrect. Sigma-delta or integrating ADCs should be configured to perform their conversion over as much of this flat top as possible to maximize accuracy and reduce measurement noise.

FIGURE 1. Pulse I-V technique.

FIGURE 1. Pulse I-V technique.

Two techniques can improve the accuracy of pulsed I-V measurements. If the width of the pulse and measurement speed permit, multiple measurements made during the flat portion of the pulse can be averaged together to create a “spot mean” measurement. This technique is commonly employed with instruments that use high speed Summation Approximation Register (SAR) ADCs, which perform conversions quickly, often at rates of 1μs per sample or faster, thereby sacrificing resolution for speed. At these high speeds, many samples can be made during the flat portion of the pulse. Averaging as many samples as possible enhances the resolution of the measurements and reduces noise. Many instruments have averaging filters that can be used to produce a single reading. If even greater accuracy is required, the measurement can be repeated over several pulses and the readings averaged to get a single reading. To obtain valid results using this method, the individual pulsed measurements should be made in quick succession to avoid variations in the readings due to changes in temperature or humidity.

Transient pulsed measurements (FIGURE 2) are performed by sampling the signal at high speed to create a signal vs. time waveform. An oscilloscope is often used for these measurements but they can also be made with traditional DC instruments by running the ADCs at high speed. Some DC instruments even include high-speed SAR type ADCs for performing transient pulsed measurements. Transient measurements are useful for investigating device behaviors like self-heating and charge trapping.

FIGURE 2. Transient pulse measurements.

FIGURE 2. Transient pulse measurements.

Instrumentation options

The simplest pulse measurement instrumentation option is a pulse generator to source the pulse combined with an oscilloscope to measure the pulse (FIGURE 3). Voltage measurements can be made by connecting a probe from the scope directly to the DUT; current measurements can be made by connecting a current probe around one of the DUT test leads. If a current probe is unavailable, a precision shunt resistor can be placed in series with the device and the voltage across the shunt measured with a standard probe, then converted to current using a math function in the scope. This simple setup offers a variety of advantages. Pulse generators provide full control over pulse width, pulse period, rise time and fall time. They are capable of pulse widths as narrow as 10 nanoseconds and rise and fall times as short as 2-3 nanoseconds. Oscilloscopes are ideal for transient pulse measurements because of their ability to sample the signal at very high speeds.

FIGURE 3. Pulse measurement using a pulse generator and an oscilloscope. Voltage is measured across the device with a voltage probe and current through the device is measured with a current probe.

FIGURE 3. Pulse measurement using a pulse generator and an oscilloscope. Voltage is measured across the device with a voltage probe and current through the device is measured with a current probe.

Although a simple pulse generator/oscilloscope combination is good for fast transient pulse measurements, it’s not appropriate for all pulse measurement applications. A scope’s measurement resolution is relatively low (8–12 bits). Because scopes are designed to capture waveforms, they’re not well suited for making pulse I-V measurements. Although the built-in pulse measure functions can help with measuring the level of a pulse, this represents only a single point on the I-V curve. Generating a complete curve with this setup would be time consuming, requiring either manual data collection or a lot of programming. Pulse generators are typically limited to outputting 10-20V max with a current delivery capability of only a couple hundred milliamps, which would limit this setup to lower power devices and/or lower power tests. Test setup can also be complex. Getting the desired voltage at the device requires impedance matching with the pulse generator. If a shunt resistor is used to measure current, then the voltage drop across this resistor must be taken into account as well.

Curve tracers were all-in-one instruments designed specifically for I-V characterization of 2- and 3-terminal power semiconductor devices. They featured high current and high voltage supplies for stimulating the device and a configurable voltage/ current source for stimulating the device’s control terminal, a built-in test fixture for making connections, a scope like display for real-time feedback, and a knob for controlling the magnitude of the output. However, Source measure unit (SMU) instruments (FIGURE 4) have now largely taken up the functions they once performed.

FIGURE 4. Model 2620B System SourceMeter SMU instrument.

FIGURE 4. Model 2620B System SourceMeter SMU instrument.

SMU instruments combine the source capabilities of a precision power supply with the measurement capabilities of a high accuracy DMM. Although originally designed for making extremely accurate DC measurements, SMU instruments have been enhanced to include pulse measurement capabilities as well. These instruments can source much higher currents in pulse mode than in DC mode. For example, the Keithley Model 2602B SourceMeter SMU instrument can output up to 3A DC and up to 10A pulsed. For applications that require even high currents, the Model 2651A SourceMeter SMU instrument can output up 20A DC or 50A pulsed. If two Model 2651As are configured in parallel, pulse current outputs up to 100A are possible.

SMU instruments can source both voltage and current with high accuracy thanks to an active feedback loop that monitors the output and adjusts it as necessary to achieve the programmed output value. They can even sense voltage remotely, directly at the DUT, using a second set of test leads, ensuring the correct voltage at the device. These instruments measure with high precision as well, with dual 28-bit delta-sigma or integrating-type ADCs. Using these ADCs along with their flexible sourcing engines, SMUs can perform very accurate pulse I-V measurement sweeps to characterize devices. Some, including the Model 2651A, also include two SAR-type ADCs that can sample at 1 mega-sample per second with 18-bit resolution, making them excellent for transient pulse measurements as well.

In addition, some SMU instruments offer excellent low current capability, with ranges as low as 100pA with 100aA resolution. Their wide dynamic range makes SMU instruments an excellent choice for both ON- and OFF-state device characterization. Also, because they combine sourcing and measurement in a single instrument, SMU instruments reduce the number of instruments involved, which not only simplifies triggering and programming but reduces the overall cost of test.

Although SMU instruments are often used for pulse measurements, they don’t operate in the same way as a typical pulse generator. For example, an SMU instrument’s rise and fall times cannot be controlled by the user; they depend on the instrument’s gain and bandwidth of the feedback loop. Because these loops are designed to generate little or no overshoot when stepping the source, the minimum width of the pulses they produce are not as short as those possible from a pulse generator. However, an SMU instrument can produce pulse widths as short as 50–100μs, which minimizes device self-heating.

The terminology used to describe a pulse when using SMU instruments differs slightly from that used with pulse generators. Rather than referring to the output levels in the pulse as amplitude and base or the high level and the low level, with SMU instruments, the high level is referred to as the pulse level and the low level as the bias level. The term bias level originates from the SMU’s roots in DC testing where one terminal of a device might be biased with a fixed level. Pulse width is still used with SMU instruments, but its definition is slightly different. Given that rise and fall times cannot be set directly and vary with the range in use and the load connected to the output, pulse width can’t be accurately defined by Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM). (refer to the sidebar for more information on FWHM). Instead, for most SMU instruments, pulse width is defined as the time from the start of the rising edge to the start of the falling edge, points chosen because they are under the user’s control.

In other words, the user can set the pulse width by setting the time between when the source is told to go to the pulse level and then told to go back to the bias level.

FIGURE 5. A pulse measure unit card combines the capabilities of a pulse generator and a high resolution oscilloscope.

FIGURE 5. A pulse measure unit card combines the capabilities of a pulse generator and a high resolution oscilloscope.

Pulse measure units (PMUs) combine the capabilities of a pulse generator and a high-resolution oscilloscope, which are sometimes implemented as card-based solutions designed to plug into a test mainframe. Keithley’s Model 4225-PMU, designed for use with the Model 4200 Semiconductor Charac- terization System (FIGURE 5), is one example. It has two independent channels capable of sourcing up to 40V at up to 800mA. Like a standard pulse generator, users can define all parameters of the pulse shape. Pulse widths as narrow as 60ns and rise and fall times as short as 20ns make it well suited for characterizing devices with fast transients. A Segment Arb mode allows outputting multi-level pulse waveforms in separately defined segments, with separate voltage levels and durations for each. Each PMU channel is capable of measuring both current and voltage using two 14-bit 200MS/s ADCs per channel for a total of four ADCs per card. Additionally, all four ADCs are capable of sampling together synchronously at full speed. By combining a pulse generator with scope- like measurement capability in one instrument, a PMU can not only make high-resolution transient pulse measurements but also perform pulse I-V measurement sweeps easily using a spot mean method for enhanced resolution.

EGBERT WOELK, PH.D., is director of marketing at Dow Electronic Materials, North Andover, MA. ROGER LOO, PH.D., is a principal scientist at imec, Leuven, Belgium.

At next week’s SPIE advanced lithography conference, to be held in San Jose, Calif., Feb. 22-26, imec will present breakthrough results on Directed Self-Assembly (DSA) process development. Together with semiconductor equipment supplier Tokyo Electron and Merck, a chemical and pharmaceutical company that acquired AZ Electronic Materials in May 2014, imec has significantly improved DSA defectivity in the past year, approaching single-digit values.

Additionally, the partners have developed a DSA solution for a via patterning process compatible with the 7nm technology node. Furthermore, imec has developed a new chemo-epitaxy flow for 30nm and 45nm pitch hexagonal holes patterning using a single 193nm immersion exposure, envisioning DSA patterning for the storage-node for DRAM applications.

Reducing defectivity in DSA and improving patterning reliability is one of the main roadblocks to creating an industrially-viable DSA patterning process to push 193nm immersion litho beyond its current limits. Imec and its partners, Merck and Tokyo Electron, have made significant progress on this aspect, achieving best-in-class defectivity values of 24 defects/cm2.

“Over the past few years, we have realized a reduction of DSA defectivity by a factor 10 every six months,” stated An Steegen, senior vice president of process technologies at imec. “Together, with Merck and Tokyo Electron, providing state-of-the-art DSA materials and processing equipment, we are looking ahead at two different promising DSA processes that will further improve defectivity values in the coming months. Our processes show the potential to achieve single-digit defectivity values in the near future without any technical roadblocks lying ahead.”

Imec, Merck and Tokyo Electron also achieved breakthroughs in two other barriers in the development of DSA patterning solutions. First, decomposition of an N7 compatible via layer was achieved.  This required a novel templated DSA process with polystyrene (PS)-wetting sidewalls of the template pre-pattern. This process allows to significantly reduce the critical dimension (CD) of the template, in comparison to using the conventional a polymethylmetacrylate (PMMA)-wetting scheme. Second, an etch process has been developed to transfer the small vias (~15nm CD) into the underlying hard mask with excellent open hole rate.

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Furthermore, imec has developed a new chemo-epitaxy flow for patterning of highly dense 45nm pitch hexagonal hole arrays. The process paves the way to single patterning 193nm immersion lithography in DRAM applications. Cost is crucial in standalone memory, and DRAM scaling will heavily rely on advanced patterning techniques enabling ≤ 45nm storage node pitch with a minimal number of steps for D14 and beyond.

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“In today’s consolidating semiconductor landscape, equipment and material suppliers are playing a key role in tackling the scaling challenges and accelerating technology advancements. Our progress on DSA process development is a testament to this, and the result of a deeply concentrated collaboration with Tokyo Electron and Merck, providing the advanced process tooling and materials knowledge paramount to achieve these breakthroughs.” added Steegen. “As an answer to the evolutions in the industry, we are setting up a supplier hub, aiming to offer a neutral, open innovation R&D platform that closely involves suppliers at an early process step and module development stage and allows for efficient cost sharing, minimized risk and optimized return on investment for all in the semiconductor ecosystem. Following recent announcements concerning imec’s equipment supplier hub, which has already resulted in research acceleration, we are now increasing our efforts to build a material supplier hub, which will be a focus in 2015.”

On October 26-27, 2015, imec will organize, in collaboration with SEMATECH, EIDEC and CEA-Leti, the 1st International Symposium on DSA. The aim of the symposium is to identify key remaining challenges for insertion of DSA into semiconductor manufacturing and to identify potential solutions. More information http://www.dsasymposium.org/