Category Archives: Advanced Packaging

November 19, 2012 – Researchers from Rice U. say they have developed a micron-scale spatial light modulator (SLM) built on SOI that runs orders-of-magnitude faster than its siblings used in sensing and imaging devices. The "antenna-on-a-chip for light modulation," developed with backing from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, is described in Nature‘s Scientific Reports.

While light processing has found use in consumer electronics (CDs and DVDs), communications (fiber optics), of course lighting applications (LEDs) and even industrial materials processing (lasers for cutting, welding, etc.), photonics for computing applications are still being explored, and reliant upon waveguides in 2D space. So-called "free space" spatial light modulators (SLM), however, could tap into "the massive multiplexing capability of optics," in that "multiple light beams can propagate in the same space without affecting each other," explains researcher Qianfan Xu.

To demonstrate, the Rice team built SLM chips with nanoscale ribs of crystalline silicon surrounded by SiO2 claddings, forming a cavity between positively and negatively dopes Si connected to metallic electrodes. The positions of the ribs are subject to nanoscale "perturbations" and tune the resonating cavity to couple with incident light outside. This coupling pulls incident light into the cavity; infrared light passes through silicon but is captured by the SML and can be manipulated to the chip on the other side, with electrodes’ field switched on/off at very high speeds.

In the paper they go into more detail on the structure of the device:

SLMs are fabricated in a CMOS photonics foundry at the Institute of Microelectronics of Singapore. The fabrication starts on an SOI wafer with a 220nm-thick silicon layer and a 3μm-thick buried oxide layer. To construct the 1D PhC cavities, silicon ribs with the height of 170nm are patterned on a silicon slab with the thickness of 50nm using 248nm deep-UV lithography and inductively-coupled plasma etching. Following the etching, the p-i-n junctions are formed by patterned ion implantations with a dosage of 5 × 1014 cm-2 for both the p+ and n+ doping regions. A 2.1μm-thick SiO2 layer is then deposited onto the wafer using plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD). Finally, vias are opened on the ion-implanted areas and a 1.5μm-thick aluminum layer is sputtered and etched to form the electric connections. The serial resistance of the diode is measured to be 105 Ω. After the fabrication process, the contact pads connecting to the p-i-n junction are wire-bonded to a SMA connector with a 50-ohms terminal resistor for impedance match.

The 3D FDTD simulations are done with commercial software Lumermical FDTD. A non-uniform grid is used which has a spatial resolution ~30nm around the resonator. Even though perturbation we introduced is much smaller than the grid size, the software is capable of incorporate that in the simulation. When a dielectric interface (Si/SiO2) lies between two grid points, the program modifies the dielectric constant at the neighboring grid points according to the position of interface. This way, the small shift of the dielectric interface due to the width perturbation is taken into account in the simulation.

Conventional integrated photonics incorporate an array of pixels whose transmission can be manipulated at very high speed, explains Xu; adding an optical beam can change the intensity or phase of the exiting light. In LED screens and micromirror arrays in projectors (both of which are SLMs) where each pixel changes the intensity of light which generates an image, some switching speeds can get down to microseconds, but that’s far too slow for moving data around in a computing application. The new Rice device can "potentially modulate a signal at more than 10 gigabits per second."

Another key to their device is that it is silicon-based and can be fabricated at volume in a CMOS fab, which can scale up the capabilities to build very large arrays with high yield, he adds. For example, Rice researchers are separately creating a single-pixel camera, which initially took eight hours to process an image; this new SLM chip could enable it to handle real-time video. Alternatively, a million-pixel array could mean "a million channels of data throughput in your system, with all this signal processing in parallel" and at gigahertz levels, he said.

Xu is careful to note that the new SLM antenna-on-a-chip is not for general computing, but more for optical processing comparable in power to supercomputers. Optical information processing is " not fast-developing right now like plasmonics, nanophotonics, those areas," he admits, "but I hope our device can put some excitement back into that field."

Left: An illustration showing the design of Rice University researchers’ antenna-on-a-chip for spatial light modulation. The chip couples with incident light and makes possible the manipulation of infrared light at very high speeds for signal processing and other optical applications. Right: Crystalline silicon sits between two electrodes in the antenna-on-a-chip.  (Credit: Xu Group/Rice University)

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Rolla, MO-based Brewer Science introduced a line of conductive CNT ink materials that are surfactant free, require no additional rinse steps, and are compatible with a broad range of printed electronic substrates. Cure temperatures for desired conductivity results are between 115°C and 130°C. Inks with high concentrations of CNTs in low-viscosity solutions are available in aqueous and solvent-based systems, giving them broad compatibility and enabling the design of inks for a broad set of application technologies such as sensors, displays, and packaging integration. Formulations are available for Optomec’s Aerosol Jet® technology systems, Fujifilm Dimatix’s materials printer DMP-2800, spray coating, and drawdown bar coating. 

These CNT inks have achieved sheet resistance of 300 ohm/sq for 85%T (optical transmission) at 550 nm for transparent conductive applications.  For conductive trace applications, sheet resistance of 1 ohm/sq and conductivity of 75,000 siemens/meter have been achieved.  Films produced with these inks on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) have demonstrated both high adhesion and mechanical flexibility. Both adhesion and conductivity remain stable after repeated folding of the CNT-coated PET.

“This robust performance will enable flexible printed electronic device applications,” “These solutions contain no surfactants and require no additional post-process rinsing, which will speed commercial adoption by eliminating the cost of the extra rinse process steps and preventing generation of a CNT-contaminated waste stream,” said Jim Lamb, Director of Brewer Science’s Printed Electronics Technology Center. “Although we designed these materials for plastic printed electronics applications, they are also compatible with a wide range of substrates such as paper, glass, silicon, and metal.”

Materials are developed by Brewer Science’s Printed Electronics Technology Center as part of its CNT materials, applications, and device prototyping services at the Jordan Valley Innovation Center in Springfield, Missouri. “Brewer Science is focused on bringing the unique properties of CNTs for commercial electronics applications to customers in the next three to five years,” added Lamb.

 

November 15, 2012 – The LCD TV panel sector closes 2012 with continued tightness due to new process technologies, capacity conversions, a strong market in China, and growing panel sizes. A number of new sizes (39, 50, 58, 60, and 65-in.) enjoyed success and some broke into the mainstream with wide adoption and volume growth.

Looking ahead to 2013, a number of established LCD panel sizes (26, 32, 37, 40-42, 46-47, and 55-in.) will give way to new sizes as TV brands adjust their product mix, calculates NPD DisplaySearch. In a new report, the analyst firm looks at everyone’s 2013 LCD TV panel product mix, and found some big differences between what suppliers offer and what buyers want:

2013 plans for LCD TV set and panel size mix. (Source:
NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly LCD TV Value Chain Report)

While panel makers want to maximize the efficiency of each fab-generation panel size, TV brands are focused on maximizing their market share and revenue. "As panel makers aggressively expand into new sizes, the mismatch is growing more serious," notes Deborah Yang, research director for monitor & TV at DisplaySearch. When the market tightens and push comes to shove, "the push from panel makers is usually stronger than the pull from LCD TV brands," she writes, and "many LCD TV brands will have to adjust their product mixes accordingly.

Here’s her rundown of factors driving that push-pull and how it’ll shake out:

  • Get bigger faster: Panel makers eager to maintain high capacity utilizations (and thus value) have been racing to adopt larger sizes than the TV brands, especially for the biggest sizes (46-60-in. and above).

  • Make bigger cheaper: The very low priced 60-in. set "has changed the ecosystem," Yang writes. Some Chinese TV brands have introduced 58-in. sets to compete with it, while Korea’s Samsung and LG Display are churning out more 60-in. product to compete with Sharp and Vizio. Gen-8 panels are not optimized for that particular size, though, so panel makers are moving to "multi-model glass" from which they can make 60-in and 32-in panels on the same substrate.

  • A shift in smaller panels: Almost everyone (Taiwan, Japan, Korea suppliers) plan to reduce their 32-in. production, which will open the door for Chinese panel makers to grab design wins with international brands.

  • Give a little extra:Most TV brands selling 46/47-in. panels (Panasonic, Philips, Samsung, Sony, Toshiba, Vizio, LG Electronics, and Chinese brands), anticipating a replacement cycle to bigger 50-in. panels, are now adding 50-in. panels.

  • Plug a midsize shortage: A lack of Gen 7 capacity, especially in China, is creating a shortage of 40/42-in. panels. AUO, LG Display, and Chi-Mei Innolux are planning to ramp up 42-in. production in their Gen-8 lines.

  • Move on up: Samsung can add every new size to its product line; Toshiba recently shifted from current mainstream sizes (40, 46, and 55-in.) to new sizes (39, 50, and 58-in.). Sony is considering 42-in. and 39-in. to avoid concentrating too much on 40-in. TV brands in China are coping with a complicated Chinese TV market in which Chinese consumers tend to prefer new products.

MIPI Alliance has formed an open "Birds of a Feather" (BoF) group that will investigate the requirements related to integrating sensors into mobile systems. The group will address challenges facing the sensor and wireless markets, including a fragmented digital interface landscape, a rapidly expanding number of sensors per device, the varied signals per device, and non-scalable architectures.

The Sensor BoF is open to non-MIPI member companies, insuring the group receives input from the broad sensor and wireless device ecosystem.

As one of the group’s first efforts, MIPI Alliance and the MEMS Industry Group (MIG) conducted a member-based market research study of 37 companies, to discover the present and future needs necessary to meet growing mobile sensor demands. While the need for a sensor interface standard was not immediately apparent, there was a clear gap between the technology of today and the needs of the future. Closing that gap will be a primary focus of the Sensor BoF group.

In the study, the reasons that would lead companies to consider having a new sensor standard include: lower cost, better performance, common sensor protocol, and time to market. Reasons for not considering a new sensor standard include: the cost, time, and complexity needed to develop the standard interface. Click here to see all the results.

Revenues for MEMS sensors

According to IHS iSuppli, revenues for MEMS sensors in mobile handsets and consumer products is expected to top $2.5 billion in 2013, up from $1.1 billion in 2008 and reflecting an 18% CAGR in the 2008-2013 timeframe. MIG Managing Director Karen Lightman also sees strong interest among many of her members in advancing sensor technology in wireless applications.

 "The massive proliferation of sensors in diverse applications is driving the trend toward standardization of sensor interfaces," said Lightman. "With MEMS playing a major role in the adoption of sensors worldwide, we recognize the importance of investigating the requirements needed to address this rapidly growing space."

by Paula Doe, SEMI Emerging Markets

Materials experts from across the supply chain who gathered at the Strategic Materials Conference 2012 in San Jose in October discussed key materials needs for micromanufacturing outside the CMOS mainstream, as OLEDs and GaN-on-silicon power semiconductors come to market, and alternatives like graphene, CNTs, and self-assembling polymers get closer to commercial application.

Large OLED displays are coming, and counting on materials breakthroughs

OLED adoption in larger displays is surely coming, driven by business necessity, argued James Dietz of Plextronics. Most of the major display makers are seeing operating losses from their LCD business, and OLEDs look like the best option for higher-value, differentiated products to improve margins. The OLED displays look significantly better, and they may potentially open new markets for lighter or flexible or more rugged displays, or for dual-view products. OLEDs’ ultra-fast switching speeds could allow different viewers with different glasses to watch different programs at the same time on the same screen. Moreover, though OLEDs are more expensive now, the variable costs for a 55-in. OLED TV made on an 8G line will be quite comparable to those for a similar LCD. And the OLED costs have far more potential to come down further, by developments like simplifying the layer stack and introducing wet processes that use lower cost equipment with higher utilization of the expensive materials.

But the nature of the market also means new challenges for suppliers. Anxious to avoid another experience like the commoditization of the LCD sector, display makers intend to keep their processes and complex OLEDs materials stacks to themselves this time, which makes process integration of different materials and equipment difficult. The device makers are investing in developing their own materials, making exclusive contracts with equipment and materials suppliers, and doing their own process integration. Integration is also being driven by some materials suppliers like DuPont Displays. But the familiar semiconductor model of the material and tool supplier working together to deliver a process to the customer is not the rule. "We see a gradual transition from all vapor to more solution layers," says Dietz. "OLEDs will enter the TV market in the next three years, and will have solution process steps by 2015."

The 55-in. OLED TVs announced for 2012 now look more likely to come out in only very small volume — a few thousand units in 2012 — and initial prices of ~$9000 will limit sales. But OLED TVs will start to see real growth by 2014-2015, helping to push OLED displays to a $25 billion market by 2017, reports Jennifer Colegrove, VP of emerging display technology at NPD DisplaySearch. She says ten new AMOLED fabs are planned to be built or updated in the next three years. OLED materials, now about a ~$350 million market (include the OLED organic materials but not substrates), should grow at close to the same 40% CAGR of the overall market, to reach $1-2 billion in 2014. But breakthroughs are still needed in oxide and amorphous silicon backplanes, color patterning technology, lifetime of blue materials, encapsulation materials, reduction of materials usage, and of course integration, uniformity and yields of all these things.

OLED display revenues will grow to about $35B in 2019, up from $4B in 2011, with CAGR ~40%. (Source: NPD DisplaySearch, Q3’12 Quarterly OLED Shipment and Forecast Report)

Solution processing is critically important to bringing down the cost of large screen OLEDs, argued John Richard, president, DuPont Displays, as the current production methods which rely on thermal evaporation with fine metal masks are proving costly to scale to 8G substrates. "We developed an alternative process using soluable materials to bring down cost," he notes. Wet processes reduce capital needs and cut material waste to reduce costs significantly, but still need ever better lifetimes and efficiencies of the OLED materials, particularly for blue. A major Asian display maker has licensed the DuPont technology, and plans to scale it up to 8G. The process uses largely pre-existing tools to slot coat the hole injection and transport layers, and pattern the surface with wetting and non-wetting lanes, before nozzle printing stripes of red, green and blue emitters using custom tool developed with Dai Nippon Screen.

The rest of the stack — the electron transfer layer, the electron injection layer, and the metal cathode — is then deposited by thermal evaporation. Richard says coating and printing processes can use significantly less material than vapor deposition, as it avoids losses in the chamber, on the mask, and during alignment and idling. DuPont reports printed blue emitter lifetime is up to 30,000 hours — or 8 hours a day of video for 15 years — before degrading to half brightness. Next issues include optimizing the cost of synthesis and starting materials, and reducing operating voltage for better device efficiency.

Graphene and carbon nanotubes get closer to commercial applications

Next-generation energy storage presents materials opportunities as well. One key enabler for improving both supercapacitors and batteries could be graphene, especially with better sources for consistent quality material at reasonable cost. Bor Jang, CEO of Angstron Materials, reported that his company has engaged a contract manufacturer in Asia to start volume production of as much as 30 tons of graphene next year, using Angstron’s technology that claims good control of structure and properties. "That will bring down costs by an order of magnitude," says Jang. First application will likely be performance enhancers for lithium-ion battery electrode materials, and then for improved electrodes for supercapacitors. Angstron has announced demonstration of a graphene-based supercapacitor with energy density comparable to a nickel hydride battery.

"We think supercapacitors is a market to invest in," said Chris Erickson, general partner at Pangaea Ventures, a somewhat unusual venture fund that invests particularly in materials and green technologies. "We think it will reach $1 billion in the near future." Erickson is also enthusiastic about the potential for dynamic window glazing using vapor-deposited coatings and ITO to adjust to control the shading on windows, for dramatic energy savings of up to 30% in energy consumption in a building, according to NREL — and buildings reportedly use 49% of total energy in the US.

Nantero reported major progress from its long effort in controlled processing and performance for its carbon nanotube thin film, targeting low-cost, low-power non-volatile memory. CTO and co-founder Thomas Reuckes said the company is now lithographically patterning films of its spin-coated aqueous solution of carbon nanotubes, as roughness, adhesion and defectivity are now suitable for semiconductor processing. Metal impurities are down to <1ppb in liquid form, wafer-level trace metals to <1E11 atoms/cm2 . Reuckes reported production of working and yielding 4Mbit CNT memory arrays, and showed results of reliability data. The company just announced a joint development program with imec to manufacture, test, and characterize the CNT memory arrays in imec’s facilities for applications in next generation <20nm memories.

GaN for power semiconductors needs higher purities than LED market

Power semiconductors made on GaN on silicon are being released to the market now, and, given time, could potentially address some 90% of the what IMS Research projects will be a $25 billion (silicon-based) power semiconductor market for MOSFET and IBGTs by 2016, suggested Tim McDonald, VP for emerging technologies at International Rectifier Corp. GaN theoretically offers much better specific on-resistance to breakdown voltage tradeoff than Si or SiC. The key to wide adoption is for GaN on Si based solutions to achieve 2-4× performance/cost compared to silicon.

To achieve the necessary low costs, IR uses compositionally graded layers of AlyGaxN grown on the silicon to ease the thermal and lattice mismatch of the GaN film to the silicon wafer. IR claims 80% yields, with warp and bow controlled enough to run on a standard 150mm CMOS line. GaN on silicon is moving more quickly to market for power semiconductors than for LEDs, as it brings better performance, not just potentially lower prices. It also helps that threading defects do not have the same impact on performance–plus IR has been developing the technology for six or seven years already.

The power market needs higher purity materials and cleaner tools for better yields on its larger die, compared to the LED market. It also prefers larger diameter wafers for lower costs. Demand for gas sources and MOCVD tools should scale with volume, and the tools need to be optimized for larger wafers and become more automated, with perhaps some 2,000-3,000 tools needed for the whole market over the next two decades. Packaging may move from wire bonding to soldered or sintered contacts, and will adopt other means of reducing stray packaging-related inductance and resistance.

The LED market will see only a few more years of significant growth, argued Jamie Fox, lighting and LEDs manager for IMS Research-IHS. Revenues from displays including TVs are leveling off from their fast ramp, as the markets mature, and as LEDs get both brighter and cheaper, driving down both units needed and cost per unit. The LED lighting market will continue its fast climb to near ~$6 billion over the next several years, but then as more lamp sockets are replaced by the longer lasting LEDs (and CFLs), there will be less need for replacements, and the market will slow. Slower adoption near term, however, would mean less saturation later.

Cree’s Mike Watson, senior director of marketing and product applications, countered by pointing out the potential for innovation that solid state technology brings to lighting, noting how digital technology has transformed markets like telephones and cameras into new industries for digital communications and digital imaging. "Semiconductor technology keeps changing industries by innovation," he noted. "Why do we keep thinking of it as just replacement?

Directed self-assembly for higher resolution lines and holes

Another of the more innovative materials alternatives on the CMOS side is directed self-assembly for next-generation patterning, which seems to be making rapid progress. AZ Electronic Materials CTO Ralph Dammel reported that block copolymers, with similar molecules together in blocks instead of randomly dispersed, tended to arrange themselves with the similar chain sections together, conveniently lining up into cylinders that look similar to lithographic contact holes, or into lines similar to lithographic lines and spaces. Wafer surface patterning with topography or chemicals can control the placement of these self-assembled patterns, on top of standard 193nm immersion lithography. Work with IBM Almaden suggests the process can provide better CD uniformity for quadruple patterning at lower cost than the spacer pitch division process. Other work shrinks contact holes, while improving the CD variation compared to the resist prepatterns. The company is now providing large-scale samples for in-fab process learning, with implementation perhaps as early as 2014, though design for self-assembly needs further development work.

November 8, 2012 – Growing use of disposable devices and respiratory monitoring are underpinning growing use of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) used as pressure sensors in medical electronics, according to IHS iSuppli.

Medical electronics is a relatively small slice of the overall market for MEMS pressure sensors. Sales of such devices are seen rising 6%-7% this year to $137.6M, with steady growth continuing through 2016. But they’re in the "high-value" category where suppliers can command much higher average selling prices, so it’s a more profitable and attractive market, points out Richard Dixon, principal analyst for MEMS & sensors at IHS. (Another high-value MEMS category, industrial and military/aerospace, will rake in about $283M this year.)

Worldwide high-value MEMS pressure sensor revenue forecast, in US $M. (Source: IHS iSuppli)

Pressure sensors are poised to become the leading type of MEMS device, generating $1.5B in revenue. In medical applications the technology is found in accurate low-pressure measurement devices. They are particularly seen as a low-cost consumable for invasive applications such as the monitoring of blood pressure. The most common medical pressure sensor is the disposable catheter to monitor blood pressure and micro vascular resistance in the vicinity of the heart. Another type of disposable (and low-cost) MEMS pressure sensor is the infusion pump, used to introduce fluids, medication, or nutrients into a patient’s circulatory system — 60M units of these devices were shipped in 2011.

MEMS pressure sensors also have use in non-invasive applications where they are reusable and cost considerably more. The biggest category in this segment is respiratory monitoring, such as the Continuous Positive Air Pressure (CPAP), used mainly to treat sleep apnea at home. (The US is the main market for such devices, since the treatment is included in healthcare programs, iSuppli notes.) Another application is in oxygen therapy machines, incorporating both a low-pressure and high-pressure sensor, to administer or increase the amount of oxygen in a patient’s blood. This application is growing given the aging population and increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Another respiratory-use market, though currently small, is in ventilators to treat lung injuries, asthma, and adult or acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Yet another medical market for MEMS pressure sensors is in measuring vital signs: benchtop or mounted-central-station patient monitors, and multiparameter monitoring devices. Low-end instruments include at least one non-invasive pressure sensor; midrange counterparts comprise one or two such devices, and high-end devices have both non-invasive and invasive pressure sensing, as well as additional respiratory pressure sensing.

One market "in its infancy today" but with high promise is implantable devices such as cardiac monitors, glaucoma monitors, and cranial pressure monitors, iSuppli notes. With a cardiac sensor a patient can be monitored from his/her home, eliminating repeat hospital visits for tests — which would realize huge savings in healthcare costs.

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November 6, 2012 – Concern over a worrisome trend of underinvestment in semiconductor startups has prompted the Global Semiconductor Alliance (GSA) to form a new working group. Its inaugural mission: identify various alternatives to encourage startups to innovate, woo investors, generate returns, and keep generating sustainable industry M&A.

Investors are getting spooked from injecting capital into emerging semiconductor companies where the rate of return is becoming a longer-shot target. Complex digital IC products can require $100 million or more to develop and a decade or more to ramp-up with revenues; the GSA quotes analyst Andy Rappaport suggesting a semiconductor startup needs to hit $1B in a 5-10 year window off a $100M investment. Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector leads all industries in terms of R&D as a percentage of sales (24% for the 12 months 1Q11-1Q12), says the GSA. Besides the design and mask costs, there’s another $20M-$30M needed just for embedded software to make the design work, "an investment that is not easily recovered in the semiconductor business model where the price is often expected by the market to reflect silicon size," the GSA notes.

As a result, seed/Series A fundings have plummeted over the past decade, from several dozen annually averaging $9M-$10M in the 2000s to now just a handful averaging around $6M-$7M (and just $4.7M in 2011). That’s creating a major "innovation gap" in which there are fewer high-growth startup opportunities available, to be harvested by larger semiconductor firms seeking to bolster their position, leading to a longer-term move away from M&A as a viable strategy to achieve innovation and growth.

Total semiconductor Series A/seed funding, 2000-2011. (Source: GSA)

To address this widening gulf, the GSA has initiated a new "Capital Lite" working group populated with leaders from VCs, fabless firms and IDMs, semiconductor suppliers, and execs from finance, banking, and M&A interests. The group’s first official act is a white paper, "A Startup’s Guide to Surviving an Investment Drought," aimed to help inform and "invigorate" investment activity around semiconductor startups. Assisting this effort is a new resource portal in conjunction with IPextreme as a centralized location for tools and services from the entire semiconductor supply chain.

In the white paper, the group advocates for a "capital-lite" approach: a semiconductor startup sources services (e.g. IP, sales/marketing, SG&A, engineering, shuttle runs, etc.) from a larger semiconductor partner, which in turn reaps the benefits of another revenue source. The group puts out three types of hybrid financing models emphasizing different areas: low ASPs and high-volume markets i.e. consumer; higher ASPs/mid-volume markets i.e. enterprise; and IP-sharing/joint R&D. The group also advocates for a recently formed VC fund, "Silicon Ventures," which proposes to balance the risks between the startup, strategic partner/acquirer, and investors. It also points to the "Lean Startup" approach championed by entrepreneur Eric Ries, visualized as a "distributed startup" ecosystem here third-party technical activities are parceled out. (Adapteva is listed as a success story for this model.)

"We are looking to reverse the current decline in venture capital investment in the industry by re-balancing the risks associated with semiconductor start-ups," stated Silicon Ventures co-founder Ken Lawler. "Our model does this through active collaboration from inception between a start-up, a strategic partner/acquirer, and the investors, which will reduce product development costs, speed time to market, and provide compelling acquisition opportunities for the strategic partners."

November 5, 2012 – In early January of this year, both Samsung and LG showed off 55-in. versions of their organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TVs at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. Commercial volumes were expected on shelves by the time of the 2012 Summer Olympics (which didn’t happen); they were again showed this fall at IFA in Germany.

Unfortunately, still struggling with low manufacturing yields and high prices, the two giants recently admitted the delivery of those technologies will be pushed out into 2013. NPD DisplaySearch now projects only 500 OLED TVs will ship in 2012.

Still, one must crawl before taking first steps and eventually running with the pack. Actually getting products out into the market is an important move, even as LCD TVs continue to get bigger and with higher resolutions. "4K × 2K LCD TVs have has become a focus and are currently available, and OLED TV needs to demonstrate its technical superiority," points out David Hsieh, VP at NPD DisplaySearch. "If we do see OLED TVs hit the market within 2012, the shipments will be used primarily for retail demonstrations in developed regions like North America and Europe."

OLED TV technology still has to overcome a number of obstacles, explained by the research firm:

  • Technical challenges: Making and scaling up large OLED panels (e.g. 55-in.) is a different animal vs. the smaller ones (e.g. 5-in.) now at high-volume output for smart phones.

  • Manufacturing limitations: Only two Gen-8 OLED lines are in place for TV panels, still in pilot mode and with low manufacturing yields which is keeping costs high and limiting the ability to address demand.

  • High price: Initial retail price for a 55-in. OLED will be around $10,000 — that’s not going to cut it when 60-in. LCD TVs sell for under $1000.

  • New high-definition competition: While the two Korean suppliers focus on OLEDs TVs, competitors in Taiwan, China, and Japan are developing LCD TVs with ultrahigh definition (4K × 2K).

  • Market timing: How much advantage do Samsung and LG have from their early adoption of OLED; will competitors quickly close that gap?

NPD DisplaySearch is still bullish on OLED’s longer-term competitiveness, though, expecting that suppliers in Taiwan, China, and Japan will indeed pick up the mantle of AMOLED TV panel production. The firm projects over one million unit shipments in 2014, and a 3% market penetration by 2016.

Forecasted shipments (in millions) and penetration rates for OLED TVs. (Source: NPD DisplaySearch)

 

November 2, 2012 – After a strong surge in 2010 from the 2009 downturn and solid growth in 2011, the market for optoelectronics, sensors/actuators, and discrete semiconductors (O-S-D) lost most of its momentum in 2012 as the world’s weak economy wobbles forward and uncertainty clouds the near-term outlook — particularly in Europe and the US, according to IC Insights.

With revenue growth in electronics systems manufacturing slowing to 3% in 2012 from a more-normal 6% increase in 2011, most O-S-D product categories have weakened. Sequential quarterly sales growth in the O-S-D market continues to drift lower, while the global economy struggles to regain its footing and fully recover from the 2008-2009 recession.

The steady falloff has caused IC Insights to lower its 2012 O-S-D market forecast to 2% growth from a 7% increase projected early this year. The new forecast means total O-S-D sales are now expected to reach a record-high level of $58.2 billion in 2012 compared to the current annual peak of $57.4 billion set in 2011.

O-S-D market flattens and drifts lower after recovery rebound. (Source: IC Insights)

Optoelectronics is propping up overall O-S-D sales growth in 2012. Revenues for optoelectronics are now forecast to rise by 8% to reach a new record high of $27.5 billion in 2012, thanks to strong sales growth in lamp devices (+18%) driven by new solid-state lighting applications and CMOS image sensors (+21%) used in more digital cameras for smartphones, tablet computers, surveillance networks, and other equipment. Sales of sensors and actuator devices are now projected to rise by just 2% in 2012, but that will set a new record high of $8.7 billion. The commodity-filled discretes segment is expected to fall 6% to $22.0 billion. When the three O-S-D segments are combined with IC sales (now projected at $259.4 billion), the total semiconductor market is forecast to be $317.6 billion in 2012, a 1% decline from 2011.

With electronics systems manufacturing beginning to strengthen and the global economy forecast to show some improvement in 2013, IC Insights is forecasting modest revenue growth in all three O-S-D market segments. Optoelectronics revenues are projected to grow 7% in 2013 to $29.3 billion, while dollar volumes in the sensors/actuators segment are forecast to rise 10% to about $9.6 billion, and sales of discretes are expected to rebound by 5% to reach $23.1 billion.

November 2, 2012 – OLED revenues are currently being driven by display applications (e.g. smartphones), but there’s a new battleground slowly emerging: OLEDs for lighting applications where the technology could offer some advantages in design and efficiency for some applications — if panel makers are willing to make some sacrifices, according to a report from Yole Développement.

Conventional LED technology has paved the way in solid-state lighting, and has a large headstart; OLED has to overcome high costs and current lower efficiency, which are hampering market adoption and penetration. The firm sees OLEDs for lighting making initial inroads in specific lighting applications (automotive, general lighting) and in niche specialty and high-end lighting where it can offer some differentiation in design options. To crack more traditional lighting markets (commercial, office buildings, etc.), however, OLED technology will have to advance the technology and expand across different niche markets to achieve economies of scale and will decrease costs. Yole pegs this happening sometime in 2014, with the rise of larger substrates and better process control.

Pars Mukish, technology & market analyst for LED & OLED at Yole, then foresees an astonishing growth projection for OLED lighting panels: from a $2.8M market this year (2012) to nearly $1.7B by 2020, with general lighting applications representing more than 70% of that business.

OLED panels revenue for lighting applications. (Source: Yole Développement)

That won’t come easy, though. There are a number of materials and OLED structures being explored and in production, tweaked to improve performance and lifetime and also decrease manufacturing costs. Polymer materials for OLEDs continue to struggle (vs. small-molecule OLED materials) in demonstrating their capabilities to lower costs and improve performance to production-acceptable levels. Rigid glass is still the go-to substrate for OLED lighting panels, but work continues on other flexible OLED technologies including roll-to-roll processing, ultrathin glass, and encapsulation options.

To have a chance at fulfilling the aforementioned growth expectations for OLED lighting, OLED panel makers have to quickly identify the winning technology approaches and time-to-market strategies. "New business models are mandatory as the traditional lighting industry will be reluctant to integrate new technology as it could eat away at margins — OLED cost directly impacts the cost of OLED-based luminaires," points out Milan Rosina, Yole’s technology & market analyst for OLED & photovoltaics. The kicker: both the new OLED technology and its integration into production are brand-new to panel makers, who are unlikely to sacrifice existing LED lighting sales and complicate production just to deploy a new technology, he notes.

Thus the key to OLED technology’s future in more mainstream lighting applications, the Yole analysts say, boils down to how and when panel makers can establish vertical integration strategies and figure out how to push the new technology through existing distribution channels. And above all, find that "spark" niche market (or markets) that will pave the way to economies-of-scale, which will open up the conversations to convey opportunities and advantages for OLED technology in general consumer lighting applications.