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MEMS microphone market to doubleSilicon microphones are among a broad range of devices known as micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS), an emerging field in which various sensors and mechanical devices are constructed on a single wafer using processes developed for making integrated circuits (ICs). The chief advantage of micromachining silicon microphones is cost. Several sensors can be processed on a chip simultaneously and can be integrated with passive and active electronic devices.

According to a new market research study from Innovative Research and Products, or iRAP, titled MEMS Microphones – A Global Technology, Industry and Market Analysis (ET-118), silicon micro-machined microphones (also known as silicon microphones or MEMS microphones) have begun to emerge as a competitor technology to the electret condenser microphone (ECM). The global market for MEMS microphones has reached approximately $422 million in 2012. The market is predicted to increase to $865 million in 2017, with increasingly high uptake of MEMS microphones over alternatives for a variety of applications. Thanks to Apple Inc., which has spurred on this phenomenal growth by adopting MEMS microphones for their products, namely the iPhone, iPad and iTouch, hence paving the way for other smartphone and tablet manufactures to adopt the same.

MEMS microphones are more compact than traditional microphone systems, because they capture sound and convert it to a digital signal on the same chip. MEMS microphone solutions developed on the CMOS (complimentary metal oxide semiconductors) MEMS platform frees consumer electronic device designers and manufacturers from many of the problems associated with ECMs. CMOS MEMS microphones also integrate an analog-to-digital converter on the chip, creating a microphone with a robust digital output. Since the majority of portable applications will ultimately convert the analogue output of the microphone to a digital signal for processing, the system architecture can be made completely digital, removing noise-prone analogue signals from the circuit board and simplifying the overall design.

Report Highlights

The new iRAP study has focused on MEMS microphones that can be used in mobile phones, digicams, camcorders, laptops, automotive hands-free calling and hearing aids. It provides market data about the size and growth of the MEMS microphones application segments, new developments including a detailed patent analysis, company profiles and industry trends. The report also covered the underlying economic issues driving the MEMS microphones business, as well as assessments of new advanced MEMS microphones that are being developed.

Manufacturers of MEMS microphones expect competition to persist and intensify in the future from a number of different sources. Microphones are facing competition in a new, rapidly evolving and highly competitive sector of the audio communication market. Increased competition could result in reduced prices and gross margins for microphone products and could require increased spending by research and development, sales and marketing and customer support.

Micro-machined microphone chips can match and extend the performance of existing devices, for instance, by using sensor arrays. Silicon microphones also offer advantages to the OEM in the form of improved manufacturing methods (reliability, yield, assembly cost) combined with robustness. They also offer additional functionality, such as the ability to incorporate multiple microphones into portable electronic devices for noise suppression and beam forming.

The potential for smaller footprint components and resistance to electromagnetic interference also supports new cell phone designs. Moreover, MEMS microphones meet price points set by electret microphones by leveraging established high-volume silicon manufacturing processes. This combination of size, performance and functionality, and low cost are highly desirable for OEMs and consumers alike.

Many of these new “miniature” silicon microphones for consumer and computer communication devices are approximately one-half the size and operate on just one-third the power of conventional microphones.

The range of possible applications of these microphones derives from their important advantages as compared to conventional ECM technologies. Based on silicon MEMS technology, the new microphone achieves the same acoustic and electrical properties as conventional microphones, but is more rugged and exhibits higher heat resistance. These properties offer designers of a wide range of products greater flexibility and new opportunities to integrate microphones.

Report Conclusions

Major findings of this report are:

  • The MEMS microphones market is an attractive, and still growing, 100s of million-dollar market characterized by very high production volumes of MEMS microphones that are extremely reliable and low in cost.
  • Mobile phones would consistently have the largest share through 2017, followed by laptops and tablets, camcorders, hearing aids, headphones and automotive.
  • From 2012 to 2017, hearing aids will have the highest growth rate with AAGR at 27.46%, followed by headphones at 25% AAGR.
  • Regionally, North America had about 25.3% of the market in 2012, followed by Europe at 19.7 %, Japan at 15.7% and the rest of world at 39.5%.
  • In 2012, More than ten companies and institutions worldwide are active in the field of MEMS microphones, which can be divided in two different technological concepts – single-chip and two-chip. The number of active market participants is expected to double by 2017.
  • By 2017, MEMS microphones will achieve penetrations of 92% in the mobile phone market segment and 95% in PDAs, digicams and camcorders market.
  • In terms of technology, the largest share will be for two-chip integration.

MEMs in the medical fieldMicroelectromechanical (MEMS) devices are shaping the competitive landscape in the global medical device industry. Several factors are behind the increasing demand for and innovation in MEMS devices in the medical industry: growing number of MEMS applications in healthcare; innovations, revolution and growth in the personal healthcare market, including wireless implants; and rising awareness and affordability of healthcare.

Participants and would-be entrants must understand the medical MEMS device market in order to compete in it. Global Information (GII) highlights three major reports that present the key issues driving and constraining market growth, in addition to probable solutions that can address emerging concerns in the medical MEMS market. Report forecasts provide a quantitative assessment of the market for companies to benchmark their performance and plan for future high growth areas, while qualitative analyses provide both an overarching view and a detailed breakdown of the MEMS market.

MEMS Devices in Global Medical Markets

The use of MEMS devices by different stakeholders is driving market growth by adding to the demand of devices from different medical market segments as discussed above. This is also indirectly encouraging for medical sector market players (particularly big ones) that have diverse customer bases composed of different stakeholders and diverse product portfolios (such as diagnostics, research, and medical devices), as they can capitalize on the MEMS market by leveraging their existing resources to some extent. Moreover, a diverse set of devices catering to the needs of different stakeholders encourages new entrants into sectors of their choice to complement or suit their capabilities and potentials.

Integrated devices and advancements in inertial sensors, such as products for human motion analysis, are meeting the needs of the modernized healthcare delivery model, especially for the elderly patient sector, by adding the element of prevention. An example of product innovation is microneedles for drug delivery, which is gaining popularity by offering a pain-free and enhanced, accurate method of drug delivery. Similarly, the diagnostic devices have significantly reduced the sample testing time from hours to a few minutes, thus significantly adding value to the healthcare delivery model from different perspectives such as time efficiency, convenience, patient satisfaction, and ease of operations.

Microfluidic/lab on chip (LOC) is considered a revolutionary technology for the life sciences and healthcare industry. This technology enables the integration of assay operations, such as sample pretreatment and sample preparation, on a single chip. This is radically changing the pharmaceutical and life-sciences research sector by changing the way procedures, such as DNA analysis and proteomics, are conducted.

The microfluidic/lab on chip (LOC) segment is expected to rise to 72% of the market share of MEMS devices by 2017. Major growth drivers of this sector are research tools, which are expected to achieve significant growth of CAGR 28.8% from 2012 to 2017. A surge from 2012 to 2017 in research applications, such as proteomics, genomics, and cellular analysis, is also expected to boost this sector.

In terms of applications, the macro segments of the market include pharmaceutical and life-sciences research, in vitro diagnostics, home healthcare, and medical devices. Among all of these applications, research is expected to grow at the highest CAGR of 28.3% from 2012 to 2017.

BioMEMS

Expected to triple in size over the next five years, the bioMEMS market is expected to grow from $1.9 billion in 2012 to $6.6 billion in 2018. Microsystem devices have applications in four key healthcare markets: pharmaceutical, in-vitro diagnostics, medical devices and medical home care. Microsystem devices have become increasingly visible in the healthcare market by serving as solutions adapted to the requirements of various applications. The usefulness of these devices is two-fold: they improve medical device performance for the patient; and secondly, they offer competitive advantages to system manufacturers. For example, the introduction of accelerometers in pacemakers has revolutionized the treatment of cardiac diseases.

BioMEMS devices examined in the report include: pressure sensors, silicon microphones, accelerometers, gyroscopes, optical MEMS and image sensors, microfluidic chips, microdispensers for drug delivery, flow meters, infrared temperature sensors, and emerging MEMS including RFID, strain sensors, and energy harvesting.

The Global MEMs Device, Equipment, and Materials Markets: Forecasts and Strategies for Vendors and Foundries

A significant portion of MEMS manufacturing technology has come from the IC industry. MEMS devices can be made using silicon wafers and the manufacturing process can incorporates semiconductor manufacturing processes such as sputtering, deposition, etching and lithography. This report analyzes the market for MEMS devices and the equipment and materials to make them.

This report provides forecasts for the following key MEMS device applications: ink jet head, pressure sensor, silicon microphone, accelerometer, gyroscope, MOEMS, Micro Display, Microfluidics, RF MEMS, Micro Fuel Cells, and more.

large area flexible displaysTechnology directions in the field of large-area and low-temperature electronics focuses on lowering the cost-per-unit-area, instead of increasing the number of functions-per-unit-area that is accomplished in crystalline Si technology according to the well-known Moore’s law.

A clear breakthrough in research for large area electronics in the last decade has been the development of thin-filmtransistor, or TFT processes with an extremely low temperature budget of (<150°C) enabling manufacturing of flexible and inexpensive substrates like plastic films and paper.

The materials used for these developments have for a long time been carbon-based organic molecules like pentacene with properties of p-type semiconductors. More recently, air-stable organic n-type semiconductors and amorphous metal oxides, which are also n-type semiconductors, have emerged. The most popular metal oxide semiconductor is amorphous Indium Gallium Zinc Oxide, or IGZO, but variants exist, such as Zinc Oxide, Zinc Tin Oxide, and so on. The mobility of n- and p-type organic semiconductors has reached values exceeding 10 cm2Vs, which is already at par or exceeding the performance of amorphous silicon. Amorphous metal oxide transistors have typical charge carrier mobility of 10 to 20 cm2/Vs. Operational stability of all semiconductor materials has greatly improved, and should be sufficient to enable commercial applications, especially in combination with large-area compatible barrier layers to seal the transistor stack.

In the state-of-the-art p-type only, n-type only and complementary technologies are available. For the latter, all-organic implementations have been shown, but also hybrid solutions, featuring the integration of p-type organic with n-type oxide TFTs. Most TFTs are still manufactured with technologies from display-lines, using subtractive methods based on lithography. However, there is a clear emphasis on the development of technologies that could provide higher production throughput, based on different technologies borrowed from the graphic printing world like screen and inkjet printing. The feature sizes and spread of characteristics of printed TFT technologies are still larger than those made by lithography, but there is clear progress in the field.

The prime application for these TFT families are backplanes for active-matrix displays, including in particular flexible displays. Organic TFTs are well-suited for electronic paper-type displays, whereas oxide TFTs are targeting OLED displays. Furthermore, these thin-film transistors on foil are well-suited for integration with temperature or chemical sensors, pressure-sensitive foils, photodiode arrays, antennas, sheets capable of distributing RF power to appliances, energy scavenging devices, and so on, which will lead to hybrid integrated systems on foil. Early demonstrations include smart labels, smart shop shelves, smart medical patches, etc. They are enabled by a continuous progress in the complexity of analog TFT circuits targeting the interface with sensors and actuators, to modulate, amplify and convert analog signals as well as progress in digital TFT circuits and non-volatile memory to process and store information.

In line with this trend, ISSCC 2013 features three papers representing the latest state-of-the-art of organic thin-film transistor circuits. A front-end amplifier array for EMG measurement is demonstrated for the first time with organic electronics in paper 6.4. Transistor mismatch and power consumption of the amplifier are reduced by 92% and 56%, respectively, by selecting and connecting the transistors trough a post-inkjet printing. Papers 6.5 and 6.6 present advances in analog-to-digital converters for sensing applications. Papers 6.5 demonstrates the first ADC that integrates on the same chips resistors and printed n and p-type transistors. The ADC achieves an SNDR of 19.6dB, SNR of 25.7dB and BW of 2Hz. In Papers 6.6, an ADC made only with p-type transistors is presented that has the highest linearity without calibration and that is 14 times smaller than previous works using the same technology.

This and other related topics will be discussed at length at ISSCC 2013, the foremost global forum for new developments in the integrated-circuit industry. ISSCC, the International Solid-State Circuits Conference, will be held on February 17-21, 2013, at the San Francisco Marriott Marquis Hotel.

In the second of two installments, Linx Consulting reports a steady growth in semiconductor production, as released in The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast.  The first installment focused on regional developments that will affect semiconductor industry growth.

Semiconductor production to see steady growth after 2013

The weakness in economic growth spills into end products containing semiconductors in 2012 and early 2013.  Our model relating final demands to aggregate semiconductor production (measured by SEMI’s Million Square Inches of silicon processed, MSI) suggests weak demand was anticipated in 2012, and that by early 2013, enough improvement in end markets occurs to push growth up at a modest pace that averages slightly less than 6% for the full year.   By 2014, growth should recover to long-term potential growth for MSI of approximately 7%/year.

 

Figure 1: Aggregate semiconductor production from 1955 to present, with forecast to 2015.

Key assumptions driving this forecast include some solution to the fiscal cliff dilemma that permits US consumers and businesses to begin to return to more normal conditions.  Removing uncertainty drives a modest expansion US spending on technology goods of around 2.3%, up from the anemic 0.8% growth anticipated for 2012.  Most of that growth will occur in the second half of 2013, as it will take some time for businesses to analyze the new policy environment and then implement investment plans.  Inventory-shipment ratios for technology goods, which are spiking in the last half of 2012, are assumed to recede on a steady pace to more typical levels through 2013.  If shipments in IT goods do not develop as expected, the quarterly pattern above would most likely show a steeper decline in 2012Q4 and a further decline in 2013Q1, followed by strong gains in Q2 or Q3.

 

Figure 2: The difference between Segment Demand and Total Silicon Area (includes test and monitor wafers).

Strongest growth will remain in flash memories and logic devices

The overall picture of MSI growth breaks down into the expected performance of device segments and technology nodes.  Despite the shift to consumer electronics and mobile platforms, we expect growth to be concentrated in CMOS products with a continuing slowing of unit growth and analog and discrete devices.  Strongest growth will remain with flash memories, and advanced foundry logic devices targeted at tablets and phones.

In contrast with advanced memory and logic processing, approximately 56% of the market continues to be produced at design dimensions in excess of 100 nm on wafer sizes at 200 mm or smaller.  This market segment is extremely sensitive to economic volatility and has slowed significantly in the last four years.  Manufacturers of these devices are often capital constrained and extremely cost sensitive, leading to little process innovation and limited capacity expansion.

More silicon area at 32 nm produced in 2012 than any other node

On a technology basis, despite tight capital budgets, the introduction of devices at 28 and 22nm half pitches continues apace, and significant process challenges are driving increased complexity and resultant challenges in patterning, cleaning, CMP and deposition throughout the device manufacturing process.  2012 is forecast to have produced more silicon area at 32nm than any other node, and the introduction of low 20nm half pitches and flash has continued to grow startling rates. 

In total devices manufactured at 65nm and below continued to show strong area growth in 2012 of 14%, with devices at 90nm and above largely offsetting declines from 2011 with 8% growth in 2012, but flat performance on average.

 

 

In the first of two installments, we examine the global issues facing the semiconductor industry, as released by Linx Consulting in The Econometric Semiconductor Forecast. Part two predicts that semiconductor growth should recover by 2014.

United States’ economic outlook 

The January 1st “fiscal cliff” deadline in the US dominates the near term outlook for the world economy.  ANY settlement will stabilize the situation, but any politically acceptable near term agreement in Washington will not be enough to truly begin to solve the longer-term problems. The political dynamics are not yet in place to lead to a long-term solution to debt restructuring or reducing excessive growth in entitlements. The first fiscal cliff compromise, which includes higher taxes on the wealthier income-earners, elimination of the 2% social security tax reduction, and a permanent fix to the alternative minimum tax levels, gave clarity to consumers on their tax situations. Discretionary and entitlement government spending controls or cuts to reduce government debt burdens were deferred, leaving key questions about policy to later negotiations. That extension of uncertainty will dampen investment spending and government purchases of equipment at least into the first half of 2013. Economic growth will stagnate in the beginning of the year, and then bounce briefly when the new policy environment becomes clear.  Post bounce, the longer term issues will begin to re-surface, and economic growth should settle back into a sluggish trend that lags potential output. This modest growth will be slow to lower unemployment.  Without a strong labor market, businesses will plan for very modest gains in consumer spending, relatively low inflation, and no significant change in interest rates.

Europe’s economic outlook

Most economies are in mild recession, as central governments raise taxes and/or cut spending in attempt to reduce debt. Austerity measures, coupled with potential national bankruptcies in Greece, and recessions in Spain and Italy which will likely extend into early 2014, produce severe stress on euro currency. For the euro to survive, Germany and the most troubled countries will need to compromise national needs to develop an approach that will satisfy financial markets.  France introduces a growing uncertainty to the European outlook. It continues to head in the opposite direction from most countries, expanding the central government’s involvement in the economy, ignoring debt growth, and pushing income redistribution measures which could stifle growth. While the Eurozone should survive intact, the political process will likely keep markets uncertain and most countries’ fiscal budgets austere.  Overall economic activity measured by real GDP most likely will contract slightly in 2013.

Asia’s economic outlook

With key developed world markets in recession or growing weakly, Asian economies will have difficulty producing strong expansions in 2013. With the exception of Japan, however, rates of growth are likely to improve from 2012. Led by China, which moved a bit too aggressively to cool its economy in 2012, policies have become slightly more expansive across the region and should produce slightly stronger real growth rates. Growth will come more from internal regional development than export-led growth.

Risks affecting the semiconductor industry 

Negative risks dominate discussions among serious analysts. In Europe, a financial calamity from either a banking system failure or the breakup of the Eurozone would produce a severe recession with global implications. In the US, an imbalanced solution to the fiscal cliff could stifle growth and tumble the economy into a brief recession. Emerging commodity-focused or dependent economies would be negatively impacted by a weaker Asian expansion. Positive risks, which get very little discussion in popular press these days, include a much sharper boost in the US following a settlement of the “fiscal cliff” dilemma, and a slowly improving European situation (most likely led by Germany or a group of northern European economies) that stabilizes more rapidly the fiscal situation in Europe.  A number of US forecasters surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics on December 17th expect US growth to rebound sharply and exceed 3 ½% by the end of 2013 as the uncertainty “discount” is removed from markets. While an equal number expect growth to stagnate around 1%, the upside should be at least acknowledged as a possible upside risk to the current consensus.

MEMs industry revenue forecastA strong uptake in consumer and mobile devices will power the market for microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) to solid revenue growth in 2013, with breakthroughs in new sensor applications also expected this year, according to insights from the IHS iSuppli MEMS service at information and analytics provider IHS.

Overall revenue in 2013 for MEMS sensors and actuators is forecast to reach $9.09 billion, up 8.1 percent from $8.41 billion last year. This year’s expansion is perceptibly higher than the 6.1 percent increase of 2012, and growth during the next two years will be even more robust, at double-digit increases. By 2017, MEMS revenue will amount to some $12.21 billion, up more than 50 percent from 2011 levels.

The growth rate for MEMS is highly positive compared to figures reported for the overall semiconductor industry, which declined by 2.3 percent last year. But the sizable gains in MEMS are typical for an industry that sees the healthy exposure of its products in a great number of consumer and mobile devices. And among all MEMS segments including automotive, military/aerospace and medical electronics, the consumer and mobile segment is the largest MEMS sector of all.

To date, MEMS sensors like accelerometers, gyroscopes, pressure sensors and microphones can be found in an enormous array of gadgets, including smartphones and tablets, gaming consoles and handheld players, camera phones and toys. But new applications this year are also making their way into the market, helping to propel industry growth, IHS iSuppli believes.

MEMS in handsets rule

The breakthrough applications for MEMS sensors this year have mostly to do with mobile handsets and camera phones, boosting functionality and performance.

For instance, MEMS actuators will figure significantly in the auto focus and zoom features of cellphone camera modules via suppliers such as PoLight, but also aided by California-based Tessera Technologies joining the fray this year, using technology Tessera gained when it acquired Siimpel Corp. Siimpel, also from California, had originally developed the MEMS technology for camera phones. The driver here will be smartphones with imaging capabilities of more than 8 megapixels—a market worth $20 million this year but soaring to $200 million by 2016.

Good opportunities will also come about for dedicated 2-axis gyroscopes, intended for image stabilization in camera phones. Companies that will benefit include InvenSense from California, Panasonic of Japan, and Italian-French entity STMicroelectronics. Linear Hall sensors will likewise share the limelight—a boon for companies such as Allegro Microsystems from Massachusetts, Infineon of Germany, Belgian-based Melexis, Micronas of Switzerland and AKM of Japan.

Another new application for MEMS this year will take the form of pressure sensors for mobile handsets, with Samsung—not Apple—leading the way this time via its top Galaxy S III and Note II smartphones. The use case is ostensibly for height measurement in buildings to support indoor navigation, even though the infrastructure is not completely in place yet. The question for pressure sensor suppliers such as STMicroelectronics and German firm Bosch is whether Samsung will sustain its use of the function for phones—and if others will follow Samsung’s example. A cautiously positive scenario is likely, IHS iSuppli expects, with this market doubling in 2013 to $100 million.

Other MEMS areas also to thrive, but WSS could suffer

Also joining the MEMS mainstream this year will be the timing market, which has continued to grow from a small base during the last two years. Especially in the key mobile handset space, temperature-compensated crystal oscillators or TCXOs—which perform better than incumbent quartz equivalents—will come to the fore in the baseband processor/GPS chipset. Housed in extremely compact designs, the oscillators ensure high-quality data communication by reducing noise in high-speed, high-capacity wireless communications typical in smartphones. Companies like California-based SiTime Corp. and Sand 9 from Massachusetts are propelling development.

Similarly, varactors and switches used for radio-frequency (RF) antenna tuning will begin to experience some market traction in 2013, even though other technologies like gallium arsenide and ferroelectric BST are still well-placed.

In what could be a blow to the optical MEMS market, however, a new trend suggests that liquid crystal-on-silicon alternatives may be replacing MEMS-based wavelength selective switches (WSS).

How this scenario develops could have a significant negative impact on this part of the MEMS market this year, especially as WSS is currently forecast to amount to more than 50 percent of the optical MEMS space for telecoms.

 

January 23, 2012 – The market for MEMS microphones has nearly quintupled in just the past three years, topping a projected 2 billion shipments in 2012, a rise attributed mainly to the rise of Apple and the iPhone, according to IHS iSuppli.

"While MEMS microphones have been around for many years, 2009 marked an important milestone when Apple started to buy MEMS microphones for the iPod Nano 5, and more importantly, for the iPhone 4," stated Jérémie Bouchaud, director and senior principal analyst for MEMS & sensors at IHS. "With Apple playing a huge role, the MEMS microphone market turned up the volume dramatically." Apple’s share of MEMS microphone consumption was just 6.2% of shipments in 2009, and nearly a third of the market (31%) in 2012.

Silicon microphones are "one of the great success stories in the MEMS field," according to the firm. A smartphone may need one of most MEMS-enabled features, e.g. an accelerometer or compass or gyroscope, it typically has two MEMS microphones these days — and some handset suppliers are considering designing in a third device for noise suppression and better audio recording for videos.

Interestingly, MEMS microphones’ usefulness has resisted the typical price reduction seen in technologies rapidly adopted in consumer and mobile markets, because the high-end segment (Apple, Nokia, etc.) is driven more by than just price. "Apple, for instance, pays anywhere from three to four times more than its competitors to secure performance-oriented MEMS microphones, helping to stabilize pricing for MEMS microphones as a whole," iSuppli notes.

Differentiating a smartphone/handset with better audio capabilities is increasingly important as consumers rely on their devices for even more tasks beyond simply making a phone call, such as consuming music or video content. The new Nokia Lumia is one such smartphone specifically marketing its audio and recording features. Apple’s addition of Siri voice command to the iPhone 4S has carried over into the iPhone 5 and other Apple devices including the newest iPod touch music player and iPad tablet. "Siri demonstrated the impressive functionality that could be achieved by multiple MEMS microphones featuring a lower signal-to-noise ratio," the firm notes.

More MEMS microphones in handsets has also improved audio for video recording, iSuppli points out. The iPhone 4 and 4S had two microphones (supplied by Knowles and AAC) on the side of the display — great placement for calls and voice commands, but not for recording the sound of the video taken with the main camera on the back of the phone. The iPhone 5 has those same two microphones but adds a third from Analog Devices on the back of the phone for video recording.

Worldwide MEMS microphone historical shipments, in millions of units. (Source: IHS iSuppli)

January 22, 2013 – Reports are circling around Apple’s supply chain of a potential shift in the company’s display strategy for its future iPhones and iPads — moving back to LCDs and away from touch panels — but a drastic realignment of its supply chain is probably not likely, observes DisplaySearch.

Calvin Hsieh, senior analyst at DisplaySearch, cites a report from China that Innolux has delivered "touch on display" samples for the iPhone, another China report that Innolux and AU Optronics have provided "one-glass solution" (OGS) samples for the iPad Mini, and his firm’s own analysis that the iPhone 5 uses in-cell touch technology but the iPad mini uses a glass/film dual ITO (GF2, or DITO) structure. With both those processes struggling to attain good yields, could Apple end up changing its display technology adoption midstream?

TOD is a proprietary on-cell touch technology developed by Innolux in which the sensor is located on the upper glass (the color filter substrate) beneath the top polarizer. On-cell touch combines both LCD and touch so it must meet Apple’s LCD display requirements; Hsieh notes, adding that Innolux accounted for less than 10% of iPhone 4 display shipments (3.5-in, 960×640). "If Apple were to adopt TOD, it would very likely request that Innolux share its technology, structure or even patents with Apple’s other LCD suppliers in order to ensure adequate supply," he writes," and Apple also probably would want to take over the controller IC and algorithm from any Innolux partners (e.g. Synaptics). Apple already owns DITO patents, he adds.

The OGS display technology is an even more complex problem, Hsieh points out. OGS integrates the touch ITO sensor circuits into the cover glass, via two possible methods: a piece type such as "touch on lens" (TOL) or a sheet type, each accomplished with a different process. Either way the X-Y sensor patterns are on the same side of the substrate, so it’s called a "SITO" structure or "G2." Touch panel maker TPK owns patents for the piece-type OGS method, and claim they have key SITO patents as well and are suing Nokia and Chinese panel maker O-film, Hsieh notes; whether the aforementioned Innolux-AUO partnership could produce the technology given the TPK patents is unclear, he says.

There’s more to Apple use of OGS display if it chooses that route. Sheet-type OGS has a compressive cover-glass strength of 500-6600 Mpa; Corning’s IOX-FS and Gorilla glass have 600-700 Mpa for smartphone sizes and cannot be used in sheet type, Hsieh says. Piece type has the higher CS value but are difficult to mask-stamp and align under lithography, and throughput may be low.

Among iPhone 5 panel suppliers only LG Display offers everything from in-cell touch LCD to cover glass lamination (consigned by Apple), Hsieh notes. Other in-cell touch LCD makers Japan Display and Sharp rely on partners for the cover glass. If Innolux and AUO continue with their OGS partnership, they have a choice:

  • An integrated offering of LCD, OGS sheet patterning (cover glass with SITO sensor), and lamination let Apple specify the IOX-FS glass sheet with compressive strength of Gorilla 1; "In this scenario, LG Display will never give up and must be one of the suppliers," he notes.

  • Integrate the LCD, OGS piece-type sensor patterning, and lamination, using consigned cover glass pieces from other finishers (e.g. Lens One). The challenge here is expanding tools, throughput, and yield for piece-type patterning, to be acceptable for the iPhone’s >100M unit base.

All that is somewhat speculation, though, because long-term Apple touch supplier TPK already "has excellent OGS sheet and piece-type technology, and high lamination yield rates," and is unlikely to simply hand over that business to new entrants. "Although AUO and Innolux have advantages as LCD makers and can shorten the supply chain by producing LCD and touch at the same time, TPK has strength in OGS integration from sensor patterning, cover glass finishing (for sheet type), to module lamination," Hsieh writes. "Thus, there is a good chance that TPK will once again be a key touch supplier to Apple if it decides to change touch structures."

By Tom Morrow, chief marketing officer, SEMI

Spending on LED fab manufacturing equipment will decline 9.2% in 2013 as the industry faces weak long-term demand and consolidates manufacturing capacity. According to the SEMI LED/Opto Fab Forecast, spending on LED fab manufacturing equipment will drop to $1.68 billion in 2013, down from $1.85 billion in 2012. Global LED manufacturing capacity will continue to grow this year, reaching an estimated 2.57 million 4-in. wafer equivalents, a 24% increase over 2012. The outlook for equipment spending in 2014 is currently projected at less than $1 billion, as manufacturers assess an uncertain competitive environment and potential alternative manufacturing strategies.

Underlying the softening in manufacturing investment is weak long-term demand for package LED components. Despite growing demand for solid state lighting systems, total demand for packaged LEDs is at or nearing its peak. Last year, Strategies Unlimited forecasted that demand for LEDs would peak in 2012 or 2013 at approximately $13.3 billion, declining to less than $13.0 billion in 2014. Recently, IMS Research forecasted that LED demand would peak in 2015 at nearly $14 billion before declining through the remainder of the decade.

World LED capacity trend. (Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast, Nov. 2012)

Among the reasons for weak long-term demand is the LED count per device is dropping fast and the long-life of LED-based lighting systems radically reduces the replacement lamp market. For LED manufacturers, average selling prices continue to drop, especially in high-growth mid- and low-power segments serving the lighting industry.

With excess manufacturing capacity continuing to place price pressures on LED components, manufacturers will be cautious in embarking on major new manufacturing investments. Low fab utilization is also delaying the transition to 6-in. sapphire wafers. In addition, new GaN on silicon products are just now reaching the market, creating further uncertainty. Last month, Toshiba announced the beginning of production of white LEDs using GaN on 8-in. silicon substrates, utilizing depreciated IC fabs with modern automation tools. Working with technology from Bridgelux, Toshiba has reportedly indicated they will eventually ramp to 10 million units per month. German-based Azzurro Semiconductors announced that Taiwan LED leader, Epistar, has successfully migrated their LED structures to its 150mm GaN-on-Si templates and the company is feverishly working on 200mm technology. Philips, OSRAM, and Samsung are all actively exploring GaN on silicon technology.

GaN on silicon could be a game-changer in the LED market, but its impact is still uncertain. Yole Developpement estimates that significant cost benefits can only occur if equivalent yields to sapphire processes can be achieved, and that production utilizes fully amortized 200mm lines. Sapphire wafer prices have significantly declined over the past 18-months, lessening the benefits of a move to silicon.

Apart from major substrate technology changes, manufacturing spending will increasingly be focused on yield rather than capacity and throughput. Equipment, materials and technology suppliers who can deliver an ROI through improved manufacturing yields can still prosper in the weakened market.

China pursues leadership

China’s 12th Five Year Plan took effect in 2011 and renewed the country’s commitment to LED and solid state lighting technologies. While the massive MOCVD spending of 2010/2011 has significantly declined, China remains the leading region in manufacturing investments. China will be the largest market for LED fab equipment in 2013 with projected spending of $667 million, approximately 40% of the total worldwide spending and almost double Japan’s spending, the second largest region. In 2011, China spent over $1.2 billion on LED fab manufacturing equipment.

China’s generous national and local subsidy programs behind the massive industry development (China now has 82 LED fabs, up from only 16 in 2006) have all but disappeared, but the country remains committed to developing all sectors of the LED industry. China is a major consumer of LEDs in signage, mobile displays, TVs, and lighting that utilize low and mid-power LEDs that Chinese suppliers specialize in. Energy conservation through solid state lighting is a national priority. Most observers predict a consolidation of the China LED industry, with perhaps one of two companies emerging as global powerhouses. While much of China’s LED capacity is dormant, in transition or reliant on older technology, companies such as SanAn and ETi will invest new and upgraded manufacturing technology over the next two years.

Industry structure implications

Another troublesome aspect of the LED industry is that nearly 70% of the LED market is supplied by only ten companies, most of whom are directly involved in manufacturing lighting systems. Increasingly, the LED components may be seen as loss leaders offering little incentive for manufacturing investments. With falling ASP’s, soft demand, vertically integrated customers, and increasing supply of quality products from China and elsewhere, the outlook for continued LED manufacturing investments will be limited for the foreseeable future.

Tom Morrow will be providing the keynote address at the Strategies in Light (SIL) conference, February 12, 2013. SEMI members can receive a special discount rate with up to $200 savings to attend the Manufacturing Track. To register for SIL, click here.

The SEMI HB-LED Wafer Task Force, Equipment Automation Task Force, and Impurities & Defects Task Force will be meeting in conjunction with the Strategies in Light conference in Santa Clara, CA (Feb. 12-14). Following Strategies in Light, the NA HB-LED committee and its task forces will meet in April 1-4 in conjunction with the NA Standards Spring 2013 meetings in San Jose, California. For more information and to register for these meetings, please visit the SEMI Standards website here: www.semi.org/en/Standards.

For more information on SEMI’s involvement in the LED market, visit www.semi.org/LED.

January 17, 2012 – In the ranks of top foundries, there’s a new Number Three in town: Samsung, which climbed up the ranks again in 2012 thanks to its ubiquity in smart phone technology, according to updated rankings by IC Insights.

Samsung jumped into the foundry scene in mid-2010, and quickly became one of the anticipated long-term leaders in the sector. It’s now easily the biggest IDM foundry operation, with sales nearly 10× that of IBM, IC Insights notes. IC Insights’ August update projected Samsung finishing in fourth place just behind UMC, separated by about $400 million, but anticipated Samsung surpassing the Taiwan rival in 2013.

Samsung followed a sparkling 82% growth in 2011 by nearly doubling sales again to $4.33 billion, putting it just shy of GlobalFoundries which grew sales a solid 31% last year to $4.56B. (Compare that with former No.3 UMC, which has seen sales declines each of the past two years: -5% in 2011, -1% in 2012.) In fact IC Insights thinks Samsung will challenge GlobalFoundries for the No.2 spot before 2013 is done, leveraging its leading-edge capacity and huge capital spending budget. With dedicated IC foundry capacity reaching 150,000 300mm wafers/month by 4Q12, and an average revenue/wafer of $3000, Samsung’s IC foundry capacity could pull down $5.4B in annual sales, the analyst firm calculates.

How did Samsung get so big so fast in the foundry business? It supplied chips to nearly half of the industry’s 750 million smartphones shipped in 2012 — application processors for the 220 million of its own handsets in 2012, plus the 133 million iPhones Apple shipped. Note that Apple made up about 89% of Samsung’s total foundry sales, despite being bitter rivals in broader electronic device markets, and Apple is still very reliant on Samsung for IC processors for iPads, iPhones, and iPods — and gets favorable pricing thanks to "bundling" deals using Samsung’s memory chips, IC Insights notes. Apple is exploring other sourcing options (TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and possibly Intel) to decouple somewhat from reliance on Samsung, but the analyst firm points out that TSMC currently is already running high utilizations and can’t take on such a heavy new workload, and "as of early-2013, no other foundry in the world could come close to matching Samsung’s total IC supply capabilities."