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By Richard Allen

The arrival of Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging (FO-PLP) appears to be at a perfect time: This technology will leverage processes developed for Three Dimensional Stacked Integrated Circuits (3DS-IC) as well as panel processing technologies developed for industries such as solar panels and large-screen TVs.  In this combination, FO-PLP promised the improved performance of 3DS-IC, without the expense. There was just one problem…

That problem is the size of the panels to be processed. As different companies developed FO-PLP processes, they chose panels sized to meet certain technical or business goals, or chose a size based on familiarity. So, processes were being developed for more than ten sizes, each of which had one or more companies championing them.

For people in the wider semiconductor industry, the development of many processes, each with a unique panel size brought a feeling of déjà vu, reminding them of the 1970s, when each device manufacturer created their own specification for wafer size, forcing them to manufacture their own wafer processing equipment since no external manufacturer was willing to produce tools usable only by a single customer.

SEMI responded by developing an industry consensus silicon wafer standard – which described basic parameters, including diameter and thickness – to resolve the issue. Almost overnight the landscape changed, and new tool manufacturers sprung up, enabling the incredible growth that has persisted over more than 40 years.

Recently, Cristina Chu (TEL NEXX) presented the state of FO-PLP to the North America Chapter of the SEMI Three-Dimensional Packaging and Integration (3DP&I) Technical Committee, suggesting that the Committee develop a single standard dimension that would enable the technology to move into high-volume manufacturing.

The Committee began by surveying the industry to determine the interest level in such a standard as well as its contents.  A key finding came in response to the question “Would you support a standardized panel size?” Overwhelmingly, over 70 percent of the respondents supporting the idea for the standard, with less than 2 percent opposed. The survey also asked if other parameters should be standardized and, if so, which parameters. Majority responses pointed to edge profile, flatness, and warp, prompting the 3DP&I Committee to immediately form the FO-PLP Panel Task Force (TF) to develop such a standard. Chu and Richard Allen (NIST) agreed to chair the TF and respondents to the survey were asked to participate as TF members.

The TF initially decided to follow the model of SEMI M1, Specification for Polished Single Crystal Silicon Wafers, and write the document as a purchase specification. The purchase specification would indicate a limited number of mandatory parameters, identified as those that serve as bottlenecks to the development of a FO-PLP ecosystem. Parameters that were not perceived as bottlenecks but might be useful for implementing a FO-PLP process would be included as optional.

Working under the SEMI Standards umbrella allowed the TF to take advantage of work done in the development of other standards, without having to recreate it from scratch. In particular, Flatness and Shape were repurposed from SEMI M1, ensuring consistent definitions of these parameters.

The TF could not come to consensus on how the other parameters should be categorized, so the decision was made to move the ordering table to a new Appendix as optional.

The TF will be balloting its first specification for panel substrate in the upcoming cycle, which opens September 5, 2018 (Cycle 7). The voting is open to all industry experts. Based on the feedback, the task force will continue to refine and otherwise improve the specification by incorporating other parameters that are critical to making FO-PLP a reality.

SEMI Standards development activities take place throughout the year in all major manufacturing regions. To get involved, join the SEMI International Standards Program at: www.semi.org/standardsmembership.

For more information regarding FO-PLP Panel Task Force activities, please contact Laura Nguyen at [email protected].

Richard Allen is a physicist in the Nanoscale Metrology Group in the Engineering Physics Division of the Physical Measurement Laboratory (PML) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). 

Originally published on the SEMI blog.

The China IC Ecosystem Report, a comprehensive report for the IC manufacturing supply chain, reveals that front-end fab capacity in China will grow to account for 16 percent of the world’s semiconductor fab capacity this year, a share that will increase to 20 percent by the end of 2020. With the rapid growth, China will top the rest of the world in fab investment in 2020 with more than $20 billion in spending, driven by memory and foundry projects funded by both multinational and domestic companies, according to the new report released today by SEMI.

The report also shows that IC Design remained the largest semiconductor sector in China for the second year in a row with $31.9 billion in revenue in 2017, widening its lead over the long-dominant IC Packaging and Test sector. The ascent of China’s IC Design sector comes as the region’s equipment market is expected to claim the top spot in 2020 for the first time on the strength of the continuing development of its domestic manufacturing capability. China’s maturing domestic fab sector is also benefiting domestic equipment and materials suppliers. Both groups continue to see gains in their product offerings and capabilities, particularly in silicon wafer production. The China IC Ecosystem Report is produced by SEMI, the global industry association and provider of independent electronics market research.

The more than RMB140 billion (US$21.5 billion) accumulated by the National IC Fund, a critical component of the 2014 National Guideline to address China’s semiconductor trade deficit, has spurred rapid gains throughout the region’s IC supply chain. Semiconductors are China’s largest import by revenue. Phase 2 of funding aims to raise another RMB150-200 billion ($23.0-$30.0 billion).

Encouraged by the National Guideline and favorable policies, skilled overseas talent is returning to China, triggering an explosion of domestic IC Design start-ups that are benefiting from access to investment and favorable policies, the report shows.

Other highlights from The China IC Ecosystem Report include:

  • Currently 25 new fab construction projects are underway or planned in China. 17 – 300 mm fabs are being tracked as part of this investment and expansion activity. Foundry, DRAM and 3D NAND are the leading segments for fab investment and new capacity in China.
  • China’s IC Packaging and Test industry is also moving up the value chain by enhancing its technology offerings through mergers and acquisitions and building advanced capabilities to entice international integrated device manufacturers.
  • China’s IC materials market, currently dominated by Packaging materials, became the second largest regional market for materials in 2016, a position it solidified in 2017. China’s materials market is expected to grow at a 10 percent CAGR from 2015 to 2019, driven primarily by the region’s new fab capacity ramp in the coming years. Fab capacity will expand at a 14 percent CAGR during that period.

The China IC Ecosystem Report covers the latest semiconductor supply chain and market developments including the rise of China’s IC industry, national and local government policies, public and private funding, and their implications for China’s IC supply chain. The report also compares key domestic companies and their international peers segment by segment. To learn more and get a sample of the report, visit http://www.semi.org/en/china-ic-ecosystem-report.

Eugenia is a Senior Product Marketing Manager at SEMI. 

Originally published on the SEMI blog.

By Jay Chittooran

In testimony last week before a U.S. government interagency panel considering tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, SEMI called for the removal of nearly 100 tariff lines, all of which cover items critical to the semiconductor manufacturing process, including materials and machines.

Jonathan Davis, global vice president of advocacy at SEMI, explained in his testimony that while SEMI strongly supports efforts to better protect valuable intellectual property (IP), tariffs will not help address Chinese trade practices, and will ultimately have significant and unintended consequences. SEMI asserts that these tariffs will harm companies in the semiconductor supply chain by increasing business costs, introducing uncertainty, and stifling innovation. Collectively, SEMI estimates that this round of tariffs will cost its 400 U.S. members more than tens of millions annually in additional duties. All told, SEMI estimates that all U.S. and Chinese retaliatory tariffs will cost members nearly $700 million in annual duties.

SEMI’s full written comments note that these tariffs, on top of those already in force and the retaliatory tariffs, will hamstring the industry. The tariffs seem to target U.S. firms for simply operating in China. Given that tools and materials are extremely complex, precise, and difficult to manufacture, it is unreasonable to believe that a constituent component can simply be replaced with a part from another source. Further, this U.S. government approach does not take into account that many items  subject to these tariffs are not available, at sufficient quality and cost, from domestic sources, or even non-Chinese sources. We stand steadfast in our belief that this trade action will raise prices, put thousands of high-paying and high skill jobs at risk, and curb growth.

Over the past four months, SEMI submitted written comments and offered testimony on the two previous rounds of tariffs, citing the damaging impact tariffs would have on the U.S. semiconductor industry. The first round of tariffs – on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods – took effect July 6, and the second round – targeting $16 billion in Chinese imports – will be imposed on August 23. The tariffs hit machines and tools central to the semiconductor industry, including equipment used to manufacture wafers, boules, and chips as well as test, inspection and sensing equipment.

We urge SEMI members to review the $200 billion U.S. tariff list to determine the level, if any, of impact. We also strongly encourage members to review Chinese retaliatory lists as well. Any SEMI members who have questions, should contact Jay Chittooran, Public Policy Manager at SEMI, at [email protected].

Originally published on the SEMI blog.

Global semiconductor industry revenue grew 4.4 percent, quarter over quarter, in the second quarter of 2018, reaching a record $120.8 billion. Semiconductor growth occurred in all application markets and world regions, according to IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO).

“The explosive growth in enterprise and storage drove the market to new heights in the second quarter,” said Ron Ellwanger, senior analyst and component landscape tool manager, IHS Markit. “This growth contributed to record application revenue in data processing and wired communication markets as well as in the microcomponent and memory categories.”

Due to the ongoing growth in the enterprise and storage markets, sequential microcomponent sales grew 6.5 percent in the second quarter, while memory semiconductor revenue increased 6.4 percent. “Broadcom Limited experienced exceptional growth in its wired communication division, due to increased cloud and data-center demand,” Ellwanger said.

Memory component revenue continued to rise in the second quarter, compared to the previous quarter, reaching $42.0 billion dollars. “This is the ninth consecutive quarter of rising revenue from memory components, and growth in the second quarter of 2018 was driven by higher density in enterprise and storage,” Ellwanger said. “This latest uptick comes at a time of softening prices for NAND flash memory. However, more attractive pricing for NAND memory is pushing SSD demand and revenue higher.”

Semiconductor market share

Samsung Electronics continued to lead the overall semiconductor industry in the second quarter with 15.9 percent of the market, followed by Intel at 13.9 percent and SK Hynix at 7.9 percent. Quarter-over-quarter market shares were relatively flat, with no change in the top-three ranking. SK Hynix achieved the highest growth rate and record quarterly sales among the top three companies, recording 16.4 percent growth in the second quarter.

IC Insights released its August Update to the 2018 McClean Report earlier this month.  This Update included a discussion of the top-25 semiconductor suppliers in 1H18 (the top-15 1H18 semiconductor suppliers are covered in this research bulletin) and Part 1 of an extensive analysis of the IC foundry market and its suppliers.

The top-15 worldwide semiconductor (IC and O-S-D—optoelectronic, sensor, and discrete) sales ranking for 1H18 is shown in Figure 1.  It includes seven suppliers headquartered in the U.S., three in Europe, two each in South Korea and Taiwan, and one in Japan.  After announcing in early April 2018 that it had successfully moved its headquarters location from Singapore to the U.S. IC Insights now classifies Broadcom as a U.S. company.

Figure 1

As shown, all but four of the top 15 companies had double-digit year-over-year growth in 1H18. Moreover, seven companies had ≥20% growth, including the five big memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Toshiba/Toshiba Memory, and Western Digital/SanDisk) as well as Nvidia and ST.

The top-15 ranking includes one pure-play foundry (TSMC) and four fabless companies. If TSMC were excluded from the top-15 ranking, U.S.-based Apple would have been ranked in the 15th position. Apple is an anomaly in the top company ranking with regards to major semiconductor suppliers. The company designs and uses its processors only in its own products—there are no sales of the company’s MPUs to other system makers. IC Insights estimates that Apple’s custom ARM-based SoC processors and other custom devices had a “sales value” of $3.5 billion in 1H18.

IC Insights includes foundries in the top-15 semiconductor supplier ranking since it has always viewed the ranking as a top supplier list, not a marketshare ranking, and realizes that in some cases the semiconductor sales are double counted. With many of our clients being vendors to the semiconductor industry (supplying equipment, chemicals, gases, etc.), excluding large IC manufacturers like the foundries would leave significant “holes” in the list of top semiconductor suppliers. Foundries and fabless companies are identified in the Figure. In the April Update to The McClean Report, marketshare rankings of IC suppliers by product type were presented and foundries were excluded from these listings.

Overall, the top-15 list shown in Figure 1 is provided as a guideline to identify which companies are the leading semiconductor suppliers, whether they are IDMs, fabless companies, or foundries.

In May 2018, Toshiba completed the $18.0 billion sale of its memory IC business to the Bain Capital-led consortium. Toshiba then repurchased a 40.2% share of the business. The Bain consortium goes by the name of BCPE Pangea and the group owns 49.9% of Toshiba Memory Corporation (TMC). Hoya Corp. owns the remaining 9.9% of TMC’s shares. The new owners have plans for an IPO within three years. Bain has said it plans to support the business in pursing M&A targets, including potentially large deals.

As a result of the sale of Toshiba’s memory business, the 2Q18 sales results shown in Figure 1 include the combined sales of the remaining semiconductor products at Toshiba (e.g., Discrete devices and System LSIs) and the new Toshiba Memory’s NAND flash sales. The estimated breakdown of these sales in 2Q18 is shown below:

Toshiba System LSI: $468M
Toshiba Discrete: $315M
Toshiba Memory Corporation: $3,107M
Total Toshiba/Toshiba Memory Corporation 2Q18 Sales: $3,890M

In total, the top-15 semiconductor companies’ sales surged by 24% in 1H18 compared to 1H17, four points higher than the total worldwide semiconductor industry 1H18/1H17 increase of 20%. Amazingly, the Big 3 memory suppliers—Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, each registered greater than 35% year-over-year growth in 1H18. Fourteen of the top-15 companies had sales of at least $4.0 billion in 1H18, three companies more than in 1H17. As shown, it took just over $3.7 billion in sales just to make it into the 1H18 top-15 semiconductor supplier list.

Intel was the number one ranked semiconductor supplier in 1Q17 but lost its lead spot to Samsung in 2Q17 as well as in the full-year 2017 ranking, a position it had held since 1993. With the continuation of the strong surge in the DRAM and NAND flash markets over the past year, Samsung went from having only 1% more total semiconductor sales than Intel in 1H17 to having 22% more semiconductor sales than Intel in 1H18!

It is interesting to note that memory devices are forecast to represent 84% of Samsung’s semiconductor sales in 2018, up three points from 81% in 2017 and up 13 points from 71% just two years earlier in 2016. Moreover, the company’s non-memory sales in 2018 are expected to be only $13.5 billion, up 8% from 2017’s non-memory sales level of $12.5 billion. In contrast, Samsung’s memory sales are forecast to be up 31% this year and reach $70.0 billion.

By Walt Custer

2Q’18 Electronic Supply Chain Growth Update

  • Chart 1 is a preliminary estimate of global growth of the electronic supply chain by sector for 2Q’18 vs 2Q’17. Note the strong performance of semiconductors, SEMI capital equipment and passive components.
  • Chart 2 gives preliminary 2Q’18 world electronic equipment growth by type. Global electronic equipment sales rose an estimated 9%+ when consolidated into US dollars in the second quarter of this year compared to the same quarter in 2017.
  • Based on this, data global electronic equipment sales growth appears to have now peaked on a 3/12 growth basis for this present business cycle (Chart 3).

As a caution these charts are based on a combination of actual company financial reports and estimates for companies that have not yet reported their calendar second quarter financial results. A number of large companies have yet to report but these early estimates have historically been close to final growth values.  We will update Chart 1 next month.

Semiconductor Capital Equipment Business Cycle

  • Semiconductor capital equipment sales are historically very volatile, with their growth fluctuating MUCH MORE than electronic equipment (Chart 4). However, both series appear to have peaked on a 3/12 basis for this current cycle.

  • Semiconductors, SEMI capital equipment and Taiwan chip foundry sales all are seeing slower growth. 3/12 values >1 still indicate an expansion but slower growth is indicated.

Supply chain performance in the second half of this year bears careful watching!

Walt Custer of Custer Consulting Group is an analyst focused on the global electronics industry.

Originally published on the SEMI blog.

By Cherry Sun

Aiming to forge stronger ties between the two technology heavyweights as partners in semiconductor industry innovation, SEMI and CASPA (Chinese American Semiconductor Professional Association) in mid July signed a strategic cooperation agreement to promote industry innovation between Silicon Valley and China. Under the agreement, SEMI and CASPA will work to connect Silicon Valley and China industry resources and encourage greater collaboration.

The agreement, signed at the “SIIP China Innovation and Investment Forum: Innovation at Scale: from IoT, Cloud to AI & ADAS” in Silicon Valley, supports key SEMI principles including free trade, open markets, intellectual property protection, global cooperation and innovation, said SEMI China president Lung Chu.

Brandon Wang, president and chairman of CASPA, and Lung Chu, SEMI China president, sign strategic cooperation agreement.

Speaking at the event attended by more 200 industry executives and visionaries, Chu noted that with 2019 expected to be another record year for fab and equipment investment and the semiconductor on track to reach $500 billion by next year, the time is ripe for greater cooperation between Silicon Valley and China. China and South Korea (Samsung) are driving sharp growth in global semiconductor equipment sales.

The global artificial intelligence (AI) industry is taking shape with companies ranging from startups and multinationals to semiconductor and Internet providers investing in AI research and development as China and the United States make the heaviest AI investments of all regions. A plethora of AI applications enabled by 5G will spur even greater IC demand.

Opening the event, SEMI president and CEO Ajit Manocha noted that technologies such as AI, Internet of Things (IoT) will transform our lives and that semiconductor industry leaders must cultivate a new generation of innovators to ensure continued industry growth.

Mark Ding, CEO of Shanghai Industrial Technology Research Institute (SITRI), said China is well-positioned to help goose semiconductor industry growth with its ample capital, lower capital expenditures and strong local market. He also noted that three keys to innovation are platforms, talent and capital.

Dr. Naveed Shervani, CEO of SiFive, the first fabless semiconductor company to build customized silicon based on the free and open RISC-V instruction set architecture, proposed goals for future semiconductor industry growth including reducing IC and IP costs and cutting design time.

Stuart Ching, VP of KULR Technology, a provider of thermal management technologies, pointed to the importance of lithium batteries. Those with higher energy density and lower cost would promote a range of power applications for mobile electronic equipment and lead to the mass production of solid-state batteries between 2023 and 2025.

Originally published on the SEMI blog.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $117.9 billion during the second quarter of 2018, an increase of 6.0 percent over the previous quarter and 20.5 percent more than the second quarter of 2017. Global sales for the month of June 2018 reached $39.3 billion, an uptick of 1.5 percent over last month’s total of $38.7 billion, and a surge of 20.5 percent compared to the June 2017 total of $32.6 billion. Cumulatively, year-to-date sales during the first half of 2018 were 20.4 percent higher than they were at the same point in 2017. All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average.

“Halfway through 2018, the global semiconductor industry continues to post impressive sales totals, notching its highest-ever quarterly sales in Q2 and record monthly sales in June,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “Global sales have increased year-to-year by more than 20 percent for 15 consecutive months, and sales of every major product category increased year-to-year in June. Sales into the Americas market continue to be strong, with year-to-date totals more than 30 percent higher than at the same point last year.”

Regionally, sales increased compared to June 2017 in China (30.7 percent), the Americas (26.7 percent), Europe (15.9 percent), Japan (14.0 percent), and Asia Pacific/All Other (8.6 percent). Sales also were up compared to last month in China (3.2 percent), Japan (1.3 percent), the Americas (1.2 percent), and Asia Pacific/All Other (0.5 percent), but down slightly in Europe (-0.8 percent).

For comprehensive monthly semiconductor sales data and detailed WSTS Forecasts, consider purchasing the WSTS Subscription Package. For detailed data on the global and U.S. semiconductor industry and market, consider purchasing the 2018 SIA Databook.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), representing U.S. leadership in semiconductor manufacturing, design, and research, today announced Dr. John L. Hennessy, chairman of Alphabet Inc., former president of Stanford University, and pioneer in electrical engineering, has been named the 2018 recipient of SIA’s highest honor, the Robert N. Noyce Award. SIA presents the Noyce Award annually in recognition of a leader who has made outstanding contributions to the semiconductor industry in technology or public policy. Hennessy will accept the award at the SIA Annual Award Dinner on Thursday, Nov. 29, 2018 in San Jose.

“Throughout his outstanding and influential career spanning more than four decades, John Hennessy has helped move the semiconductor industry forward, leading efforts to advance semiconductor technology and train future generations of electrical engineers,” said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. “John literally wrote the book on computer architecture design and has spearheaded semiconductor research that has helped make our industry what it is today. On behalf of the SIA board of directors, it is an honor to announce John’s selection as the 2018 Robert N. Noyce Award recipient in recognition of his exceptional accomplishments.”

Hennessy joined Stanford University’s faculty in 1977 as an assistant professor of electrical engineering and rose through the academic ranks to become Stanford’s 10th president, serving in that role from 2000 until his retirement in 2016. In February 2018, Dr. Hennessy was appointed chairman of Alphabet Inc., parent company of Google.

In 1981, Hennessy drew together researchers to focus on a computer architecture known as RISC (Reduced Instruction Set Computer), a technology that has revolutionized the computer industry by increasing performance while reducing costs. Dr. Hennessy helped transfer this technology to industry. In 1984, he cofounded MIPS Computer Systems, which designed microprocessors. In more recent years, his research focused on the architecture of high-performance computers.

Hennessy has lectured and published widely and is the co-author of two internationally used

undergraduate and graduate textbooks on computer architecture design. He earned his bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from Villanova University and his master’s and doctoral degrees in computer science from the State University of New York at Stony Brook.

“It is a true privilege to be selected for this award, joining a distinguished list of pioneers and icons who have previously received it,” said Hennessy. “Throughout my career, I have been fortunate to work with countless outstanding colleagues, mentors, and friends who have been instrumental in my work every step of the way. It is with them in mind that I gratefully accept this award, and I look forward to continuing to work alongside them to advance the forward march of innovation.”

The Noyce Award is named in honor of semiconductor industry pioneer Robert N. Noyce, co-founder of Fairchild Semiconductor and Intel.

Semiconductor Research Corporation (SRC), today announced the release of $26 million in added research funding for its New Science Team (NST) Joint University Microelectronics Program (JUMP). JUMP will fund 24 additional research projects spanning 14 unique U.S. universities. The new projects will be integrated into JUMP’s six existing research centers. NST will continue to distribute funds over its five-year plan, and industrial sponsors are welcome to join to further accentuate those plans.

The awards have been given to 27 faculty and will enhance the program’s expertise in technical areas such as atomic layer deposition (ALD), novel ferroelectric and spintronic materials and devices, 3D and heterogeneous integration, thermal management solutions, architectures for machine learning and statistical computing, memory abstractions, reconfigurable RF frontends, and mmWave to THz arrays and systems for communications and sensing.

“The goal of the NST project is not only to extend the viability of Moore’s Law economics through 2030, but to also change the research paradigm to one of co-optimization across the design hierarchy stack through multi-disciplinary teams,” said Ken Hansen, President and CEO of Semiconductor Research Corporation. “Our strategic partnerships with industry, academia, and government agencies foster the environment needed to realize the next wave of semiconductor technology innovations.”

“A new wave of fundamental research is required to unlock the ultimate potential of autonomous vehicles, smart cities, and Artificial Intelligence (AI),” said Dr. Michael Mayberry, Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer of Intel and the elected Chairman of the NST Governing Council. “Such advances will be fueled by novel and far-reaching improvements in the materials, devices, circuits, architectures, and systems used for computing and communications.”

The JUMP program, a consortium consisting of 11 industrial participants and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), is one of two complementary research programs for the NST project—a 5-year, greater than $300 million SRC initiative launched this January. JUMP and its six thematic centers will advance a new wave of fundamental research focused on the high-performance, energy-efficient microelectronics for communications, computing, and storage needs for 2025 and beyond.