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June 6, 2012 — The ConFab, taking place this week in Las Vegas, NV, is an invitation-only meeting of the semiconductor industry. As packaging has played a larger and larger role in chip performance, form factor, and capabilities, The ConFab has increased its focus on back-end processes. Cue

June 6, 2012 — Fab equipment spending has improved in 2012, breaking the barrier into positive growth for the year, shows SEMI. Semiconductor makers will invest $39.5 billion in fabs, up 2% from 2011 spending. Fab capex will hit a record in 2013, $46.3 billion or 17% above 2012.

Figure 1. Fab equipment spending (front-end). SOURCE: SEMI World Fab Forecast, May 2012.

Korea will spend the most on fab equipment this year, topping $11 billion, and will increase this to $12.5 billion in 2013. Other regions with high 2012 spending include Taiwan ($8.5 billion) and the Americas ($8.3 billion). The Americas will leapfrog Taiwan in 2013, growing spending to $11.5 billion, while Taiwan will decrease spending to around $8 billion.

All product types are increasing equipment spending in 2012, with the largest increase in memory and foundry.

2012 capex reports:

Construction spending has an improved outlook when compared to just a few months ago, with major announcements from Intel, Samsung, SMIC, TSMC, UMC and others. SEMI has identified about 45 planned projects (including new and ongoing) in 2012 and 24 planned in 2013. Fab construction spending will drop only 6% in 2012 to $6.2 billion. Fab construction spending in 2013 should improve dramatically, with a decline of only about 1% to $6.1 billion.

Figure 2. Spending on semiconductor fab construction. SOURCE: SEMI World Fab Forecast, May 2012.

In 2012, 11 new fabs will begin construction. The combined planned capacity of all new fabs beginning construction in 2012 will be 900,000 wafers per month (in 200mm equivalents). Memory accounts for 60% of this capacity; foundry 20%; system LSI 20%. In 2013, only 7 new fabs will begin construction, though this picture may still change. The new fabs beginning construction in 2013 have a planned capacity for 550,000 wafers per month.

This latest data was published in the May edition of the SEMI World Fab Forecast. Using a bottom-up approach, the quarterly World Fab Forecast report tracks multiple projects in over 1,150 fabs worldwide. Since the February edition, over 340 updates have been made concerning more than 225 fabs, keeping the industry up to date on the ever-changing announcements of spending for fab equipment and construction. Learn more about the SEMI fab databases at http://www.semi.org/MarketInfo/FabDatabase.

SEMI’s Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Subscription (WWSEMS) data tracks only new equipment for fabs and test and assembly and packaging houses. The SEMI World Fab Forecast and its related Fab Database reports track any equipment needed to ramp fabs, upgrade technology nodes, and expand or change wafer size, including new equipment, used equipment, or in-house equipment.

SEMI is a global industry association serving the nano- and microelectronics manufacturing supply chains. For more information, visit www.semi.org

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Day 2 of the 15th IITC (International Interconnect Technology Conference) opened Tuesday, June 5 at the Doubletree Hotel in San Jose, CA under mostly sunny skies and a pleasant breeze.

Prof. Bill Dally of Stanford U and Chief Scientist at Nvidia delivered a keynote address on the architect’s view of interconnect: it’s about the power. The end of historic device scaling can be identified as 2005 based on a number of performance and design parameters. Scaling today is tracking at a 3x power density increase per node, so that devices today are power limited rather than area limited. Data movement, i.e. reading and writing information, requires significantly more power than operating on it in the CPU. His recommended strategy toward a solution is to view this as an interconnect problem rather than as a memory problem. Architecture can reduce the need for data movement. Profiling the applications to be run on a particular device can suggest, for example, a cache size and implementation choice that will reduce energy consumption up to 30% without changing a single line of code. This takes place within the on-chip network. Connecting functional modules in a mesh network (he showed one called the flattened butterfly topology; no insects were harmed during the presentation) rather than through a linear bus is another source of energy efficiency gain. “A joule is a terrible thing to waste; driving a bit with a high voltage swing is as bad as driving a Hummer.” Low voltage swing interconnect drivers is one focus area of his research. Bill envisions that energy efficiency improvements in interconnects will come 4x from process/materials, 5x from circuit design and 5x from architecture.

Keren Bergmen of Columbia U gave an invited talk on the use of nanophotonic interconnect networks for optimizing performance & energy in computing. Processor pin count demands for high performance operations exceed the ITRS projections well before 2016. Photonic interconnects hold a bandwidth promise of 2 Tbps/20µm pitch at the chip’s edge. Creating an optical network based on electronic design principles fails to leverage the unique characteristics that optics can bring to the table. New design tools are being developed to correct this oversight. 3D optical interconnect networks are being evaluated as an evolution of single plane optical systems. Such deposition-based silicon-photonic systems allow the optical network to be integrated into the on-chip interconnect stack while releasing the optical design from the groundrule restrictions of the electronic elements. Simply substituting optical channels for copper interconnects will not produce the gains needed.

Michele Stucchi of IMEC described the impact of 193nm and EUV lithography options on local interconnect performance. The alternating line dimensions resulting from double patterning schemes introduce a performance variability that is not present in EUV single exposure. R, C, RC and coupling parameters have been extracted from models of LELE, SDDP and EUV processes. Overlay variations impose a significant penalty on the LELE sequence. SDDP and EUV are still considered to be viable options for large scale manufacturing yield and reliability.

 

 

Akihiro Kojima of Toshiba switched technology domains with a discussion of a WLP technology for low-cost solid state LED lighting. The LED is formed in a GaN epi layer grown on sapphire with a copper M1 interconnect and pillar, and encapsulated. The devices are inverted, the sapphire carrier is removed by excimer laser liftoff, and the phosphor is applied to the exposed GaN devices. Light output is 20% higher than conventional constructs. Thermal resistance is as low as 24.2°K/W. The package can accommodate an input power of 2.1W, for a power density equivalent of 1157W/cm2.

Tsuyoshi Kanki of Fujitsu Labs described a highly reliable chip-to-chip interconnect technology using 1µm L/S. The secret sauce is a copper plating process that reduces the halogen ion content of the dielectric resin, and encapsulating the Cu features in CoWP or NiP. The resulting combinations show leakage currents of <1×10-9amps over 160 hours electrical stress, with the CoWP holding steady at 1×10-10amps.

KN Chen of National Chiao Tung U (Taiwan) delivered an invited talk on the electrical performance and quality of integrated bonded structures for 3D and TSV interconnects. Design options included oxide recess, lock & key, and lock & key with adhesive. Material bonding systems were Cu-Cu, Cu-Sn micro bumps and Cu alloy. The data indicates that reliable structures can be achieved with the appropriate system-specific trade-offs. Co-sputtered Cu/Ti with a self-formed Ti adhesion layer was a favored construct.

Dan Edelstein of IBM Watson Research gave an invited talk on engineering the extendibility of Cu/low-κ interconnect technology. The minimum Cu wire width for the 10nm node is 20× smaller than when Cu interconnects were first introduced. Modification of the dielectric precursors to incorporate a porogen skeleton has moved κ from 2.5 to 2.35 without a loss in modulus. Copper reflow <250°C is another process tweak proving useful for defect-free metallization. Co liners are subject to galvanic corrosion that exacerbates electromigration problems, and so remains to be solved. CuMn is thought to be extendible to the 14nm node. Work on modified ULK materials with pore sizes in the tenths of nanometers shows a strong correlation between pore size and distribution with TDDB.

P. Casey of Dublin City U (Ireland) conducted studies on Mn silicate layer formation on SiO2 using synchrotron photoemission spectroscopy, XPS and TEM. They found no evidence for the formation of Mn oxides; all of the Mn formed the silicate in a self-limited reaction. A pure metal 1nm Mn film cannot be fully converted to the silicate with 500°C anneal, whereas a 1nm partially oxidized Mn film can be. Fully oxidized Mn can also be converted to MnSiO3 without the presence of metallic Mn.

Sang Hoon Ahn of Samsung R&D described the recovery of acceptable TDDB performance following its moisture-induced degradation in a Cu/ULK (κ 2.5) system. The moisture showed up as an increase in leakage current and a decrease in Vrdb (voltage ramp dielectric breakdown). A low damaging UV treatment combined with a mild remote hydrogen plasma treatment restored Vrdb and TDDB to their pre-damage levels.

Prof. Akira Uedono of U Tsukuba (Japan) spoke on the agglomeration and dissociation of vacancies in electroless deposited Cu films studied by positron annihilation. The technique was shown to be effective for characterizing vacancies in the Cu films, which in turn can be used to guide additives and formulations for electroless deposition. Appropriate residual impurities can lead to the formation of stable vacancy-impurity complexes that can suppress vacancy migration and improve resistance to electromigration. Analogous studies on electroplated Cu have shown comparable vacancy characteristics, but also suggest that there has been little progress in electroplated copper formulations with respect to vacancy formation over the past decade.

Axel Preusse of GlobalFoundries addressed metallization and reliability challenges in current and near-future nodes. The familiar litany of challenges overwhelmed the list of prospective solutions, which itself is becoming familiar. The good news is that there are still plenty of knobs to turn, at least down to 20nm.

Koichi Motoyama of Renesas presented a novel Cu reflow seed process for dual damascene interconnects at 64nm and beyond. Via chain yield improved by ~60% for dense via chains and ~70% for isolated chains. A low bias Cu underlayer deposition is required prior to the high bias Cu/Ar+ resputtering and reflow in order to prevent barrier damage at the top corners of the via. Reflow was conducted ~250°C.

 

Hideharu Shimizu of Taiyo Nippon Sanso conducted a comparative study on ALD/CVD Co(W) films as a single barrier/liner layer for 22nm interconnects and beyond. Carbonyl and metallocene precursors were compared, with nominal targets of 10at% W and 20at% W in Co. Addition of W improved the barrier properties of both CVD and ALD Co. However, addition of W increased the activation energy for Cu diffusion into ALD-Co(W) whereas it did not change in CVD-Co(W) due to better W filling of the ALD grain boundaries. ALD-Co(W) also has lower resistivity because the precursor reaction path can minimize the inclusion of oxygen in the film. Adhesion of Cu to ALD-Co(W) was superior to that of PVD-Ta, consistent with wetting angles observed on the two surfaces.

June 5, 2012 — Naoya Hayashi, research fellow for electronic device operations at Dai Nippon Printing, speaks with Solid State Technology chief editor Pete Singer during The ConFab 2012. Hayashi presented “NGL Mask Readiness” in The ConFab’s session on technology trends for advanced semiconductor manufacturing.

The ConFab is Solid State Technology’s invitation-only meeting for the semiconductor industry, taking place this week in Las Vegas, NV.

 

More ConFab stories:

Semiconductors in the smart society: Next-generation connectivity

Turning the technology knobs for system scaling

How to prevail over silicon cycles

Semiconductor industry experts look to the future

A virtual IDM concept

June 5, 2012 — Chip scaling will go on for the foreseeable future, enabling new product with more compute power, more memory, faster on-chip communication. That was one of the conclusions put forth by imec’s An Steegen, speaking on technology trends at The ConFab 2012. Steegen is Senior Vice President Process Technology Development at imec, where she has the responsibility for the technical leadership and execution of IMEC’s CORE Program activities in the areas of devices, process, lithography and design and CMORE activities such as MEMS, Power, Sensors and Photonics. 

She began by outlining the requirements for future applications, noting that, at a very high level, people want everything. “You want high speed, you want to increase battery lifetime, more data storage, multi-functionality, all at a reduced cost,” she said. “You also want heterogeneous integration, and of course, it all needs to fit into a handheld device.”

She said designers today are using a lot of techniques such as parallelism and dynamic voltage switching to work within a battery lifetime constraint. “The challenge here is going to be the active leakage current. What this means for your future technology is that you basically have to put leakage as a constraint, which will automatically pin the performance,” Steegen said. She noted that this constraint is only for mobile devices, and isn’t a problem for wired devices such as servers. This means CMOS development will evolve in two directions, one for wireless and the other for wired.

Steegen said technology scaling is the key, and that’s still driven by Moore’s Law, which dictates that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit has to double every two years to offset the ever increasing R&D cost. “The technology knobs for system scaling are the famous four: power, performance, area and cost (PPAC),” she said.  

Area is still very much lithography enabled, Steegen noted, presenting a chart showing the key dimensions of a transistor from 28nm technology down to a 10nm CMOS — the three key dimensions are the gate pitch, CPP, the metal 1 pitch and the finFET pitch. “What you need to scale the area for each technology from generation to generation is 50%, so each of these key dimensions will have to shrink by 0.7X. If today at 28nm, your gate pitch is 110nm, we will push that down to 40nm in the 10nm node. Another one to remember is the 42nm finFET pitch,” Steegen explained.

It’s not only the dimensions of the transistor that have been pushed over the last decade, it’s also the overlay, the layer-to-layer accuracy in device patterning. “If you look at the trends here, when the industry was working with 1 micron technology, a 300nm overlay spec was still doable. When you go into the more advanced nodes like 20nm, 5nm overlay is definitely what you need if not less,” she said.

In another graphic, she focused the audience’s attention on the red line, the logic scaling line, and need need for 43nm finFETs. That equates to a half pitch of 20-22nm. “That means you’re in this dark gray box which basically tells you which tool is going to be needed to print this technology. You’re clearly already in the area of EUV. If you don’t use EUV here, you come automatically back to the 193nm immersion tools where you multi patterning to print the layers for these technologies.”

Steegen said one of the key challenges we’re facing right now is EUV tool readiness for the 14nm node. “A lot of effort is being spent right now on EUV readiness and on the source power readiness,” she said. Showing a photo of ASML’s 3100 EUV pre-production tool at imec, she said “That tool is able to do great things. We were able to print 16nm half-pitch lines and spaces with a single exposure. Also, the overlay ability of this tool is very promising, with 3 sigma overlay specs below 2nm.”

The 15th IITC (International Interconnect Technology Conference) opened Monday, June 4 at the Doubletree Hotel in San Jose, CA with about 230 engineers, scientists and technologists in attendance under a light drizzle. Recurring themes this year were variations on 3D and TSV, novel systems and packaging, and back end memory.

Mike Mayberry, VP Components Research at Intel, delivered the opening keynote address with prognostication for what lies ahead for devices and interconnects. The traditional trio of smaller, faster, cheaper is joined by longer battery life. An asymmetric device, tunneling FET (TFET), is one option that may be able to deliver 8x performance over CMOS while operating at very low voltages. Interconnect shrinkage brings us to the physical limitations of barrier vs. copper volume for reliability vs. conductivity, as illustrated in this 10nm copper trench.

 

But while there are physical limits, Mayberry proffered that the correct answer to “where will it end” is “when we run out of ideas.” One new idea is the notion of stacking devices themselves, rather than remaining constrained to a single layer of silicon. This can provide a device density gain of 30%-50%. New architectures like associative memory will be fostered by new ways of using consumer devices, such as context-sensitive device response. For example, minimizing distractions while you are driving, or silencing your hilarious ring tone during business meetings, might be desirable capabilities to have built in. “If you only look for better versions of what you have today, you are going to miss opportunities,” he said. On-chip optical interconnects are likely to be limited in scope due to density and power considerations.

Soo-Hyun Kim of Yeungnam U (Korea) gave an invited talk on ALD Ru with organometallic precursors for copper seed layer and capacitor electrodes. Rapid nucleation was achieved using three different zero-valent Ru compounds reacting with molecular O2. Nucleation begins within the first 2-3 cycles, with thin film coalescence coming in the 50-60 cycle range. In addition, nucleus density is 1.5-2 orders of magnitude higher with these precursors compared to a more traditional Ru(EtCp)2. Good conformality was shown up to AR 32 at 225°C deposition temperature.

Theo Frot of IBM Almaden Research described some approaches to protecting porous low-κ dielectrics from plasma and CMP damage. The post-porosity plasma protection strategy yields the best results on a variety of dielectrics ranging from κ 2.4 to κ 1.8 in DHF wet etch and O2 plasma-induced damage (PID) tests.

 

One of the observed fringe benefits of this process strategy is a lower rate of post-CMP delamination. The original κ 2.0 value was confirmed following integration in a single damascene layer test structure.

Christopher Wilson of IMEC integrated a κ 2.3 spin-on dielectric for sub-28nm technology using EUV lithography. Structures were fabricated at a 40nm half pitch and post-etch dielectric constant was restored with a He/H2 plasma treatment that resulted in a 13% improvement in RC characteristics. Single damascene and dual damascene dielectric stacks are shown in the figure.

 

TDDB did not degrade as the spaces between the 40nm trenches were scaled from 90nm to 40nm.

YH Wu of TSMC described the use of an uncured ELK material as a CMP stop layer. Following CMP, the ELK porogen is activated to form the low-κ dielectric, resulting in a net smaller shift in κ. Integration schemes with and without the uncured ELK layer had comparable leakage, but the uncured ELK layer increases line-to-line capacitance by 7% before curing. After curing, the capacitance penalty was eliminated. Benefits of the stop layer include an improvement of copper thickness control across the wafer from 11% to 4%.

Chih-Chao Yang of IBM Albany Research showed the use of Co films as Cu capping layers. Better TDDB results with no dependence on Co thickness were observed with an in-situ process, in which the Cu oxide removal prior to Co deposition is conducted in a single reaction chamber with no air exposure between steps.

 

Jürgen Wolf of Fraunhofer IZM-ASSID described the outlook for silicon interposers with integrated TSVs for 3D SiP integration. Process schemes are designed with an eye toward leveraging WLP designs and manufacturing methods. Several temporary wafer bonding technologies are included in the mix to accommodate the in-process handling of extremely thin wafers for WLP. SnAg and SnAgCu alloys for Pb-free reflow soldering to Au bumps have been found to be adequate up to this point in the development process.

Jinho An of Samsung spoke about controlling extrusion defects in Cu TSV through annealing process conditions and structural design factors. TSV diameter has the largest effect on the tendency to extrude. Carbon and sulfur impurities affect the copper grain size, which in turn is inversely related to percent extrusion.

 

Ashish Dembla of Georgia Tech described a scheme for fine pitch (35µm) high AR (18:1) TSV integration in silicon micropin-fin heat sinks. The microfluidic prototype structure shown could handle a power density of 100 W/cm2 with a resulting junction temperature <50°C and a pressure drop of 83kPa. The silicon pins were fabricated with a cluster of copper TSVs inside each pin to enhance thermal transport as well as to provide the TSV functionality.

 

Michael Van Buskirk of Adesto Technologies gave an invited talk on a scalable, low power, high performance resistive memory technology platform called conductive bridging RAM (CBRAM). The device shown consists of a W cathode, Ag anode and GeS2 solid electrolyte switching layer. The operating principle is based on the formation of a conductive silver dendrite between the electrodes, with conductivity increasing the longer the ON switching current is left on. This makes is conceivable to have multiple ON states in a single device. A 1Mb serial EEPROM/Flash combination product has been integrated into a 130nm Cu BEOL design and is commercially available. Cross-contamination concerns about the introduction of Ag into the fab were handled with minor modification of the same protocols required for Cu. The device has demonstrated an endurance of 100k write cycles with 10 year data retention at 70°C.

 

Jonggi Kim of Yonsei U (Korea) described the switching mechanism of another resistive switching device, this one based on the redox migration of oxygen ions in HfO2 between Ni/Ti and Pt electrodes.

Honggun Kim of Samsung R&D presented a novel flowable CVD process technology for sub-20nm interlayer dielectrics. Process conditions made it possible to eliminate the Si3N4 oxidation diffusion barrier, reducing the bit-line loading capacitance by 15%. Gap fill for AR 40:1 has been demonstrated with peak process temperature <500°C.

 

S. Maîtrejean of CEA Leti talked about the challenges in phase change memories from a materials and process perspective. The addition of carbon to PVD GeTe correlated well with MOCVD GeTe with residual carbon. A confined device structure performed better in terms of switching time and ΔR than the earlier plug designs with an unconstrained PCM layer.

 

June 4, 2012 — At The ConFab’s opening session, “The Economic Outlook for the Semiconductor Industry,” capex was a major point of interest. Jackie Sturm of Intel, Dan Hutcheson of VLSIresearch, and Jim Feldhan of Semico all touched on it, with Hutcheson expanding on the idea of capex trends to present an entire ecosystem of semiconductor business management. The ConFab is Solid State Technology’s invitation-only meeting of the semiconductor industry, taking place this week in Las Vegas.

2012 capex will be flat to slightly up compared to 2011, Semico shows. The top-4 capex spenders in 2012 — Samsung, Intel, TSMC, and Hynix — will all spend more than they did in 2011. For other semiconductor fabs, the outlook is either nearly flat or declining spending, most notably at GLOBALFOUNDRIES and Micron.

Jim Feldhan, Semico, shared capex spending predictions for the major semiconductor makers, as compared to last year.

Dan Hutcheson, CEO and chairman of VLSIresearch, chose an inspiring title for his talk, “Beating the Silicon Cycle: Don’t just survive it…Prevail over it.” The semiconductor industry has violent, sometimes unpredictable swings up and down, he acknowledged. A combination of reacting and planning will help companies ride out these swings. If your semiconductor company misses the indicators of a downturn, you’re left with excess manufacturing capacity, and too little cash. Then, if you miss the indicators of an upturn, your company can be left at the bottom of tool suppliers’ order books, without enough product to meet demand, and losing market share.

Dan Hutcheson, VLSI Research Inc., shows the impact of the Lehman Brothers financial crisis in 2008.

While forecasts are rarely spot-on, they allow semiconductor suppliers to react quickly to market changes. Companies that are able to react quickly can dominate markets and make the most of new opportunities, Hutcheson said, using the Lehman Brothers failure as an example, clearly showing a new trend that developed week-by-week as the crisis unfolded. Hutcheson shared VLSI’s Chip Price Performance Index, which is a weekly indicator of market health against the expectations of Moore’s Law.

IC inventories are a coincident indicator, he added, as is capacity utilization:

Capacity utilization is “still crashing” in 2012, Hutcheson said, though the rate of decline started to slow in March. Capacity utilization never abated in leading-edge nodes, which is typical, Hutcheson noted. More mature nodes were hit the hardest (4X and larger). In her talk, Intel’s Jackie Sturm estimated that it takes $9-12 billion in annual semiconductor revenue to support just 1 leading-edge fab. With this factor, it’s no surprise that the semiconductor arena is experiencing consolidation.

Dan Hutcheson, VLSI Research Inc., tracking semiconductor sales in 2012: quarterly, monthly, and weekly.

IC inventories are more positive now. Semiconductor revenue per square inch (RPSI) is better than it was in 2011. The CPPI is bullish on H2 2012. All in all, the picture is “still cloudy,” said Hutcheson. Indicators were too early in April (press time for the numbers) to know if an upturn was in the offing, or just a quick spike.

Video interview: Dan Hutcheson speaks with Solid State Technology editor-in-chief Pete Singer

 

Want more information from this session? Read about end market demands and global change in Semiconductor industry experts look to the future

The ConFab sessions cover economic outlooks, technology trends, the foundry-fabless relationship, 3D packaging, and tool investments/obsolescence. Click on any of the keywords for a session preview. Also read chief editor Pete Singer’s blogs from the conference.

Today’s keynote address presented the "virtual IDM" concept, from John Chen of Nvidia. The next keynote address will take place Tuesday morning, with Ali Sebt, CEO of Renesas Electronics America, presenting “Smart Society, the Sensing Era and Signal Chain.”

Stay tuned to Solid State Technology for presentation highlights throughout the week.

June 4, 2012 — The ConFab’s sessions opened with “The Economic Outlook for the Semiconductor Industry,” featuring Jackie Sturm of Intel, Dan Hutcheson of VLSIresearch, and Jim Feldhan of Semico. The ConFab is an invitation-only meeting of the semiconductor industry, taking place this week in Las Vegas.

Jackie Sturm is VP of the Technology and Manufacturing Group and GM of Global Sourcing and Procurement at Intel Corporation. She focused on bright spots of growth in a mature semiconductor industry. She also urged attendees to consider factors outside of the semiconductor industry — gross domestic product (GDP) around the world, disposable income, etc. — when forecasting. Jim Feldhan, president of research and analysis firm Semico, shared Sturm’s view on macroeconomic factors, listing jobs growth, consumer spending as a percentage of GDP, and the inflation rate as factors impacting chip sales.

Intel’s Jackie Sturm presenting at The ConFab 2012 in Las Vegas.

Emerging markets like Brazil, India, China, etc. all present vastly different consumer habits and refresh cycles than mature markets like the US and Western Europe. They also have varying saturation of consumer goods like PCs and smartphones. Expect rapid adoption for these consumer electronics from Eastern Europe, Latin America, and China. Semico has lowered its 2012 world GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.2%, considering drivers like emerging markets, US and European economies, and growth in China and India.

Exponential growth is expected in data server demand, Sturm noted, thanks to increased time spent, and available content, online. Photo and video up/downloads increase every year. New applications like tablets and music/video players are driving NAND Flash memory bit growth, pointed out Feldhan.

Semiconductor sales are on an upward trajectory for the remainder of 2012, Feldhan says, after a dip in late 2011/early 2012. Semiconductor revenues could be up by 9% this year.

Semico’s IPI shows semiconductor industry trajectory.

Growth applications include ultrabooks, tablets, and 4G phones. “Consumers still love electronics,” Feldhan said, and this means purchasing of HDTVs, set-top boxes, cameras, games etc. Unit sales are growing and aggregate IC ASPs are stabilizing. Feldhan said that the supply chain realized that inventories were too low, and this trend is reversing.

What does it take to capitalize on these areas of semiconductor demand? Sturm advises that companies drive price points by the consumer, remain agile to meet new needs, collaborate where possible, and invest in your company’s future. Be aware of the varying refresh rates for different consumer goods, as well as how these vary in different parts of the world. Collaborations with academia and government, as well as intra-industry collaborations with suppliers and customers, enable rapid work on device structures, designs, and processes.

Sturm’s advice: Work with customers to understand market needs. Work with suppliers to ensure the tools and materials are in place for you to meet those needs. And work with universities on R&D for future technology generations. Investing in research and new process and product development requires significant revenue. Sturm estimates $9-12 billion in annual semiconductor revenue is needed to support just 1 leading-edge fab. With this factor, it’s no surprise that the semiconductor arena is experiencing consolidation.

As an example of how electronics suppliers need to adapt to consumer behavior, Feldhan discussed the jolt of energy that PCs will get from the emerging ultrabook category, which will cannibalize other notebooks. Ultrabooks will be 15% of total notebook market in 2012, some ODMs think 20% Components from the battery to the CPU and GPU to the display will change as ultrabooks take market share. Right now, touchscreens are a limiting factor in ultrabook production, as is user confidence in the OS. Many ultrabook barriers will be worked out by 2013, and by 2015, ultrabooks will be outshipping notebooks.

Other end-use products? Tablets, despite phenomenal consumer adoption, do not threaten to eradicate the PC market, Feldhan noted.  Smartphones saw higher-than-expected (29%) growth in 2011; expect 34% growth in 2012. New features and functions will be the key to success for smartphone designs.

This, in turn, benefits micro electro mechanical system (MEMS) makers, and companies that supply power management ICs.

MEMS are behind many new components that enable better sound quality, new device capabilities, and more. Keep an eye out for micro opto-electro mechanical systems (MOEMS), used to improve images and lower costs in new displays. MOEMS suppliers are a mix of industry heavyweights and newcomers — TI, Microvision , bTendo, Maradin, Mirrorcle, Qualcomm, and Unipixel. 2012 is the opening year of breakneck growth for MOEMS, 79.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2016, fueled primarily by communications and computing applications.

2012 is also a jumping off year for MEMS oscillators, which are challenging the entrenched crystal quartz technology for timing ICs. Smartphones use as many as 7 timing devices per unit.

Video interview: Jim Feldhan speaks to Solid State Technology editor-in-chief Pete Singer

 

Read on for a discussion of silicon cycles and capex with input from session speakers Dan Hutcheson and Jim Feldhan in How to prevail over silicon cycles.

Learn more about The ConFab 2012 at http://www.theconfab.com/index.html.

The ConFab sessions cover economic outlooks, technology trends, the foundry-fabless relationship, 3D packaging, and tool investments/obsolescence. Click on any of the keywords for a session preview. Also read chief editor Pete Singer’s blogs from the conference.

Today’s keynote address presented the "virtual IDM" concept, from John Chen of Nvidia. The next keynote address will take place Tuesday morning, with Ali Sebt, CEO of Renesas Electronics America, presenting “Smart Society, the Sensing Era and Signal Chain.”

June 4, 2012 — The ConFab 2012, Solid State Technology’s invitation-only meeting of the semiconductor industry, opened today in Las Vegas with a keynote address from John Chen, PhD, VP of technology and foundry operations at Nvidia Corporation. Nvidia makes graphics processing units (GPUs) and other semiconductor chips and is listed on the NASDAQ under ticker NVDA.

Chen presented the “virtual IDM” concept in his talk, “The Next Transformation of the Semiconductor Industry.” Integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) take semiconductor chips from design to wafer fab to packaging and final sale. The virtual IDM is a way for semiconductor foundries, fabless companies, and outsource semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) houses to collaborate to solve the new challenges in technology, manufacturing and business. Instead of 1 company performing chip design, fab, and packaging, the 3 companies (or many more) work in concert to both excel in their area of expertise and seamlessly coordinate with the other elements to act as one.

Chen has experience in IDM, foundry, and fabless companies, with 35 years spent in the semiconductor industry. Prior to his time at NVIDIA, Chen held senior executive positions at FlexICs Inc., TSMC, WaferTech LLC, and Cypress Corporation. He started out with Hughes Research Lab and Xerox Palo Alto Research Center, where he authored more than 100 research papers on CMOS technology, as well as a book published by Prentice Hall.  He was elected an IEEE Fellow in 1992 for “leadership in and contributions to CMOS device and process technology.”

Chen holds a B.S. in E.E. from National Taiwan University, an M.S. in E.E. from University of Maine, a Ph.D. in E.E. from UCLA, and a Master degree from the UCLA Executive Engineering Management Program. He was a Technical Advisor for ITRI, Taiwan, and serves on boards in the industry.

Video interview with Solid State Technology chief editor, Pete Singer

 

Learn more about The ConFab 2012 at http://www.theconfab.com/index.html.

The next keynote address will take place Tuesday morning, with Ali Sebt, CEO of Renesas Electronics America, presenting “Smart Society, the Sensing Era and Signal Chain.”

The ConFab sessions cover economic outlooks, technology trends, the foundry-fabless relationship, 3D packaging, and tool investments/obsolescence. Click on any of the keywords for a session preview.

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